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Description
The second meeting of the Arlington VA Community Facilities Study Committee featured Terry Clower, George Mason University, speaking on regional trends in property assessments. Recorded on Feb. 25 2015. For more information, go to http://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/
A
So
with
that
I'd
like
to
invite
up
our
first
speaker,
Terry
clower,
is
the
deputy
director
of
the
Center
for
regional
analysis
at
the
school
of
policy
government
and
international
affairs
at
George,
Mason
University
and
in
his
current
position
and
in
his
prior
position
at
another
institution.
He's
had
extensive
experience
in
dealing
with
economic,
economic
development
and
related
issues
both
with
local
governments
and
in
the
private
sector,
and
he's
going
to
talk
about
some
studies
that
they
have
done
in
the
Center
for
regional
analysis
on
the
topics
that
we're
talking
about
tonight.
Dr.
klauer.
B
Thank
you
John.
Well,
good
evening
everybody
I'm
a
relatively
new
comer
to
town
Rob
last
summer
from
North
Texas,
when
of
course,
I
came
here
for
the
weather
and
the
laid-back
atmosphere
to
live
here.
I
will
tell
you
that
you
people
pay
too
darn
much
for
your
housing,
let's
just
get
that
out
of
the
way,
but,
but
that
is
what
it
is,
and
we're
going
through.
What
I'm
going
to
do
is
share
a
few
slides
that
came
from
a
white
paper
that
one
of
my
colleagues
David
verse,
L
wrote
a
couple
of
three
months
ago.
B
It
is
available
on
the
Center
for
regional
analysis
website
at
GMU.
Just
do
that
search
term.
You
can
find
it
with
some
specifics
where
we're
comparing
some
factors
about
real
estate,
values
and
comparisons
across
different
jurisdictions
in
the
area,
but
I'm
also
going
to
impose
on
John
just
a
little
bit
in
setting
a
little
bit
of
a
framework,
also
in
just
quick
discussion
about
what's
going
on
in
this
region
that
the
DC
region
is
facing.
B
Some
challenges
that
you're
not
used
to
seeing
I
will
start
it
out
with
with
this,
the
unemployment
rate
is,
is
low
and-
and
that
looks
good,
but
did
you
know
that,
among
the
major
metropolitan
areas
of
this
country
last
year,
DC
trailed
everybody
in
job
creation,
I'm
talking
about
the
region
Detroit
perform
better
than
we
did
that's
how
always
get
people's
attention
about
how
you're
doing
right
for
a
while
there
it
looked
like
Philadelphia
was
going
to
be
worse,
but
they
fell
often.
Actually
it's
a
little
better.
We
have
some
real
challenges
here.
B
Federal
employment
is
continuing
to
attract
they're,
not
sorry
decline.
They
are
not
firing
people
but
they're,
not
replacing
its
attrition.
We
have
about
five
thousand
fewer
federal
workers
in
this
market
now
than
we
did
a
year
ago
we
have
seen
a
period
of
time
from
2010
through
2013
of
three
straight
years
of
declining
federal
procurement
spending.
Nobody
can
ever
remember
that
happening
now.
2014
actually
ticked
up
just
ahead
touch,
but
it
was
just
a
touch.
Obviously
we
have
this
evil
word
sequester,
that's
you
know
that's
starting
to
loom
its
head
again
and
we're
not
sure.
B
What's
going
to
come
out
of
that,
we
have
some
real
challenges
in
this
economy:
the
jobs
that
we
are
creating.
Certainly
we
are
creating
some
good
jobs,
but
we
are
creating
a
whole
lot
of
jobs
that
just
doesn't
pay
as
well
as
they
did
before
the
recession.
What
we
are
creating
is
a
lot
of
jobs
in
the
hospitality
sector
in
retail
and
those
and
those
are
jobs
and
people
that
have
them
appreciate
those
jobs,
but
they
don't
have
the
value
they're,
not
paying
as
high
wages.
B
In
fact,
some
data
that
just
came
out
for
three
years
in
a
row
now,
average
wages
per
job
in
this
region
have
declined
year
over
year
declines.
Now
this
starts
to
have
implications
for
many
things
that
you're
going
to
talk
about
tonight
in
terms
of
our
ability
to
spend
money
that
supports
retail
our
ability
to
how
much
we
pay
for
housing.
B
All
of
these
factors
start
coming
into
play
and
I
don't
I'm
not
trying
to
be
debbie
downer
here,
as
we
start
the
evening,
but
I
want
you
to
have
in
a
sense
that
there
are
some
challenges
that
we're
facing.
This
is
not
something
that
we
can
say:
oh
well,
the
recession
is
over.
The
national
economy
looks
really
good
and
we're
just
chugging
along
that.
Just
isn't
the
case
right
now
and
we're
working
with
business
leaders
across
the
region
to
talk
about
regional
efforts
that
we
can
do
about.
B
How
do
we
reshape
this
economy
a
little
bit?
Do
we
want
to
continue
to
be
an
economy
that
forty
percent
of
our
economy
depends
on
what
they
decide
to
do
on
Capitol?
And
that's
a
that's
a
pretty
that
you
know
that's
a
lot
of
the
reliance
on
people
that
appear
to
not
be
able
to
make
decisions
on
a
regular
basis
right,
President
Obama,
just
you
know,
made
it
his
third
veto
in
office
and
it
hasn't
been
because
he
hadn't
wanted
to
eat.
B
Just
hadn't
had
much
opportunity
to
have
anything
presented
to
him
to
veto
so
any
case,
so
moving
along.
Let's
we'll
go
through
a
couple
of
slides
here,
just
to
give
you
some
again
its
perspective,
similar
to
what
John
showed
previously,
where
the
real
estate
property
taxes
is.
A
percent
of
general
fund
revenues
is
pretty
high
across
the
board.
For
those
of
you
that
might
have
hard
time
seeing
it
in
the
back,
Arlington
is
the
third
column
from
the
left
at
roughly
give
or
take
about
fifty
seven
percent,
or
so
all
of
the
jurisdictions
in
Northern.
B
Virginia
are
at
least
at
fifty-four
percent.
Dc
and
Maryland
are
a
little
bit
lower,
and
that
is
because
of
their
ability
to
collect
income
taxes.
That's
just
where
that
differential
comes
through
their
next
slide.
Please,
if
we
look
at
the
percentage,
change
go
back
one
day
or
we
go.
Thank
you
very
much.
The
percentage
change
in
real
property
well
from
the
period
of
time
of
2009
to
2014,
you
guys
have
actually
done
pretty
well
you've
seen
increases
of
about
two
of
about
fifteen
percent,
and
that
has
certainly
been
better
than
everybody
in
the
region.
B
With
the
exception
of
Loudoun
County
Loudoun
County
has
had
a
lot
of
success
with
their,
of
course,
from
an
economic
development
standpoint,
their
data,
centers
and
and,
of
course,
they've
gotten.
A
lot
of
surge
of
development,
thats
related
to
people
coming
out
and
anticipated
anticipatory
effects
of
the
silver
line
and
that
pushing
on
out
toward
Dulles
Maryland.
Well,
yeah
Marilyn
just
hasn't
been
doing
as
well,
but
that,
but
it's
still
it's
one,
that
you
have
seen
some
real
benefits
in
these
changes,
but
these
changes
are
very
uneven
across
the
type.
B
If
we
can
look
at
the
night
slide,
please,
this
is
a
bit
of
a
complicated
slide.
There's
a
lot
of
information
on
it.
Arlington
is
third
set
of
columns
on
the
top
and
what
you're
seeing
are
three
consecutive
years
where
the
blue
is,
would
be
two
thousand
and
I'm
sorry
2005
and
then
2009
and
2014,
so
some
some
year
increments
there
and
what
you're
seeing
is
that
the
share
of
non
residential
properties
as
a
share
of
the
total,
has
been
increasing
in
Arlington
County.
And
that's
that's
a
good
thing.
B
If
you'll
note
that
John
said
before
the
economic
model
is
based
on
that
kind
of
50-50
split
you've
increased
since
2009
to
fit
that
we
didn't
go
back
or
I'm
sorry
2005.
That
was,
if
you
will
think
about
a
kind
of
an
inflection
point
where
we
started
seeing
things
happening
in
the
in
the
economy.
So
right
now
you
are
just
you
know,
you're
just
about
there,
where
you
like
to
be
to
give
you
some
context
where
I
come
from.
B
Normally,
you
would
think
that
you're
doing
pretty
well
as
a
suburban
community.
If
you
have
about
thirty
percent
of
your
tax
base
and
non-residential,
but
of
course
our
taxes
are
not
because
our
property
values
are
not
as
high
I
mean
our
tax
rates,
you
know
get
kind
of
similar,
but
but
still
you
have
a
good
balance
and
I.
Think
much
of
your
conversation
about
this
issue
is
going
to
be.
Is
this
sustainable?
How
can
we
keep
this
balance?
What
are
we
going
to
have
to
do
to
keep
this
next
slide?
Please?
B
So
if
we
look
at
here
in
a
second
there,
we
go
the
percentage
change
in
non-residential,
assess
valuations
by
property
type
and
again,
there's
two
kind
of
basic
sides
of
the
slide.
Arlington
is
in
the
yellow,
so
it
should
scream
out
at
you
pretty
well
and
you
have
multifamily
and
then
other
non
non
residential
multifamily
as
rental
properties
count
as
commercial
in
most
in
most
analyses.
So
when
we
say
residential,
we're
talking
about
single-family
homes,
town
homes
and
condominiums,
but
are
that
our
ownership
units,
once
that
is
a
commercial
enterprise,
it
is
considered
commercial
value.
B
If
you
look
at
a
slightly
different
time
period,
you've
got
about
forty
percent
gains
and
non-residential
assessments
and
about
eleven
percent
gain
in
resin
and
your
residential
assessments.
So
again,
you've
seen
good.
You
know
good
increase
in
that
some
of
that
has
been
office.
Some
of
it
has
been
commercial
enterprises
and,
of
course,
some
of
it
has
been
the
addition
of
new
apartments
next
slide,
please
well!
That
actually
is
the
last
slide
on
this.
B
Let
me
let
me
just
bring
up
a
couple
of
other
things
that
I
think,
though,
if
we
take
it
in
to
more
recent,
so,
while
all
of
that
is
actually
saying
pretty
good
news,
the
piece
that
you
have
probably
read
about
in
the
papers
is
increasing
struggles
in
the
office
segment
of
commercial
markets
and
in
those
segments
right
now
you
have
vacancy
rates
that
are
exceeding
20
percent
and
that's
going
to
obviously
start
impacting
values.
Now
those
valuation
changes
don't
happen
immediately.
It
takes
a
while
for
for
these
to
cycle
through
the
economy.
B
If
we
look
at
what's
been
going
on
most
recently,
according
to
some
data,
that's
just
been
released.
If
we
look
at
2015
versus
2014,
told
evaluations
up
about
three-point-four
percent
residential
about
4.9
percent
of
existing
apartments
at
4.7
about
three-point-two
percent.
New
apartments
office,
on
the
other
hand,
is
down
four
point
five
percent
versus
last
year,
and
then
we
start
thinking
about
those
other
stresses
that
I
was
talking
about
going
on
in
the
economy.
You've
got
some
some
pending
vacancies
in
the
next
couple
of
years.
B
B
B
This
is
a
very
tough
market
to
be
competitive
for
business
attraction.
Your
economic
development
folks
have
a
low
have
a
really
hard
time.
What
we
have
seen
in
this
market
here,
though,
and
particularly
in
arlington
county,
I
think,
is
really
interesting
in
that.
During
that
period
of
time,
you
had
job
growth
of
roughly
about
12
and
a
half
percent
depends
on
how
you
can
count
certain
types
of
entrepreneurship,
jobs.
You've
done
really
well
in
terms
of
actually
expanding
your
existing
businesses
and
that's
from
an
economic
development
standpoint.
B
Always
your
best
thing,
you
know
get
the
people
that
are
already
doing
business
here,
give
them
the
support
and
the
encouragement
and
the
opportunities
they
need
to
expand.
It's
not
like
having
to
pay
a
big
incentive
for
some
company
to
move
from
California,
or
something
like
that,
and
indeed
you
don't
have
my
former
governor
in
Texas,
trying
to
come
out
and
steal
your
businesses
kind
of
thing.
The
other
that
you've
done
very
well
at
is
supporting
startups.
B
You
know,
you've
had
significant
job
growth,
it
represents
entrepreneurship,
where
you
have
been
losing
has
been
that
relocation
thing.
If
you
look
at
the
companies
that
have
moved
into
town
and
to
Arlington
County
versus
move
out
you're
down
something
like
about
almost
eight
percent,
and
now
you
think
about
where
that,
where
are
they
going
well,
the
evidence
is:
is
that
they're
actually
staying
in
the
region
and
what
you're,
having
going
on
here
is
a
bit
of
a
shuffling
of
the
chairs
on
the
deck
companies?
Are
you
know?
B
You
do
something
like
you
to
build
a
new
building
further
out
into
Loudoun
County
and
yes,
people
come
into
it,
but
it's
businesses
that
are
consolidating
from
several
different
places
around
town
or
in
some
cases
coming
from
arlington
county
and
that's
part
of
the
challenge
that
I
think
is
being
faced
by
the
economic
development
site
so
in
in
a
sense
where
you
are
doing
well
in
certain
parts
of
your
economy
being
able
to
protect
and
what
we
call
an
economic
development.
The
business
retention
side
is
a
real
challenge
about.
B
What
do
you
have
in
your
toolbox
to
try
to
keep
your
businesses
here
now?
The
reason
for
doing
so
getting
back
to
our
point
tonight
is
that
being
able
to
keep
that
diverse
base
of
businesses,
commercial
office
enterprises
is
what's
going
to
keep
that
that
balance
that
you
have
in
your
tax
base
close
to
that
fifty
percent,
because
the
further
you
drift
away
from
that
I
promise
you
that
your
results
are
going
to
be
higher
and
higher
property
tax
rates.
With
that
I'll
pass
it
along.