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From YouTube: Commissioner Workshop (February 13, 2018) Part 1
Description
***NOTE - We apologize for the technical issue with the audio - the audio begins in the video at the 3:30 mark.
Work Session of the Buncombe County Board of Commissioners presenting an Economic Overview, Budget Overview, and Fund Balance Review. Part 1 of 2.
A
B
A
By
our
total
population
and
if
you're
looking
at
planning
ahead,
I
can
pretty
much
guarantee
you,
the
population
will
drop
next
area
and
population
will
grow
following
four
or
five
years
in
this
kind
of
pace.
We're
gonna
look
at
the
pace
here:
Thursday
at
annual
average
population
growth
rate,
and
if
you
look
at
the
last
seven
years,
didn't
work
out.
We
are
growing
faster
than
the
state
or
the
nation
and
that's
significant,
because
we
have
only
done
that
once
before
it
was
only
three
years
back
in
the
early
90s.
A
So
this
is
rare
territory
growing
faster
than
the
state
of
the
nation.
America
I,
don't
see
that
changing
this
that
you
can
see
is
coming
up
a
little
bit.
That's
a
little
bit
low
and
nationwide.
You
can
see
that
black
line
declining,
which
is
why
there's
so
much
talk
about
migration
lightly,
because
this
country
increasingly
will
be
dependent
upon
that
migration.
But
right
now
that
is
not
a
concern
for
us.
A
A
B
A
Who
obviously
weren't
having
kids,
and
so
our
population
was
aging?
This
90
90,
plus
percent
of
our
population
from
domestic
and
migration
has
been
this
way
for
at
least
the
last
15,
maybe
20
years.
So
this
is
what
we
are
we're
always
about
attracting
new
folks
in,
but
that
little
natural
has
gotten
smaller,
but
I.
Think
when
you
see
when
I
look
at
some
of
the
age
groups
that
are
moving
in
there,
you
might
see
that
changing
when
I
do
the
metro
area,
the
for
County
metro
area,
anyways,
Henderson
and
Madison
have
been
negative
natural.
A
B
A
B
A
2011
through
2016,
so
any
bar
such
as
this
one
right
here
in
which
we're
attracting
28%
of
the
folks
coming
in,
are
between
the
ages
of
20
and
29,
whereas
our
population
is
only
13%
of
that
age
group,
meaning
that
group
is
growing
significantly
other
groups,
not
so
much
when
they
look
at
the
baby
boomers
here
you
know
you
can
see
that
we're
still
attracting
about
20%
of
the
new
folks.
It's
a
it's
11%
of
9%.
A
You
probably
can
see
there
are
baby
boomers,
which
is
still
not
as
much
as
a
proportion
of
our
existing,
but
we
are
still
attracting
that
group
now
to
make
a
little
more
sense
out
of
this
there's
compared
to
the
nation.
I
looked
at
all
the
new
residents,
domestic
people
that
have
moved
into
a
new
County
what
their
age
groups
were.
So
you
can
see
Millennials.
A
This
is
happening
all
over
the
nation,
but
what
I
thought
was
interesting
as
well
was
the
baby
boomers
down
here
we're
still
picking
up
more
than
nationwide,
statistically
about
20%
versus?
What's
the
nation
they're
five
and
thirteen
percent
we're
still
picking
at
baby
boomers
is
the
long
story
short.
That's
at
this
a
complex
chart.
A
A
So
when
you
think
of
yourselves,
when
you
were
twenty
twenty-nine,
I'm
sure
a
lot
of
us
so
that
connect
group
is
always
going
to
be
a
big
mover
fact,
it
looks
like
they'll
finally
more
than
the
baby
boomers,
so
in
the
importance
I.
Think
for
welcome
is
that
we're
attractive
other
places
are
not
so
much
I
looked
at
Henderson
County,
which
is
I
look
at
Henderson,
sometimes,
as
maybe
there
are
five
or
ten
years
behind.
Where
were
you
where
they're
still
picking
up
the
baby
boomers
majority
I?
Think
they're
they're
twenty
twenty-nine.
A
A
A
No
problems
here
ever
since
2013
we've
been,
we
peaked
past,
where
we
were
at
in
2008,
which
our
previous
peak
was.
You
probably
all
know
this.
Let
me
just
break
it
down:
here's
net
annual
employment
change:
this
is
the
increase
in
employment,
just
the
net.
You
can
see
that
for
the
last
eight
years
we've
been
adding
folks
2015,
for
whatever
reason
was
a
big
year.
You're
gonna
see
that
through
a
few
other
slides
and
you're,
also
seeing
there's
a
little
bit
of
a
decline.
A
So,
although
we're
growing
pretty
strong
that
pace
of
growth
for
employment
has
come
down
a
bit
here,
it
is
it's
a
percentage
relative
to
the
state
in
the
nation,
and
there
again
you
can
see
that
pretty
much
we're
following
is
happening
by
the
state
in
the
nation,
except
for
these
two
years
here
we
really
had
a
burst
of
employment.
That
you
can
also
see
that
the
trend
is
down
to
slower
than
we
were
I
should
have
said
in.
The
previous
slide
are
back
a
little
bit.
A
We're
looking
at
percentages
here
for
population
or
annual
growth
rate
over
the
last
forty
seven
years
is
one
point,
two
percent
and,
as
you
may
recall,
that
slide
population
grow
throughout
1.3
percent
and
so
I
run
into
a
lot
of
people
in
their
downtown,
and
they
say
all
this
building
boy
were
just
booming
population
just
flowing
in
we're,
really
not
population
wise
we're
right
about
what
we're
you
know.
1.3
in
1.2
was
right
about
the
same
spot
that
we've
been
over
the
last
40
years.
A
A
So
this
is
the
one
I
want
to
spend
a
few
minutes
on.
This
is
just
the
net
rub:
2012
since
2017
and
jobs,
and
manages
to
what
you're
talking
about
tourism.
So,
as
you
can
see
it's
healthcare
and
tourism,
that's
really
the
major
drivers.
The
top
three
here
I,
consider
retail
by
the
way
part
of
closely
part
of
tourism
as
well.
If.
A
A
A
A
Respect
some
communities
I'm
at
and
they've
got
you
know
a
dozen
or
more
that
are
growing
at
once,
but
ours
are
relatively
simple.
Now,
if
you
look
at
you're,
probably
just
as
interested
in
what's
happened
over
the
last
year
and
so
the
last
year,
it's
a
little
bit
different
because
we
see
a
decline
in
administrative
services
which
are
tense,
and
what
this
is
antidotal
they're
telling
me
that
a
lot
of
those
temps
are
becoming
permanent
because
of
the
type
of
labor
market,
which
makes
sense
and
interesting
enough.
A
A
E
A
C
A
B
A
Gonna
go
right
into
so
what
does
this
do
to
wages?
We
spend
a
lot
of
time
on
this.
So
let
me
explain
what
this
says.
This
is
a
five-year
percent
of
the
total
employment
gains
in
Buncombe
County
by
their
average
industry,
earnings
and
so
I
looked
at
the
industries
up
here
and
I
broke
them
all
down
into
their
subcategories.
So
there's
76
industries
and
I
looked
at
the
ones
pay.
A
The
lowest
did
the
lowest
quartile,
which
is
right
here,
which
would
be
employees
making
less
than
$27,000
the
middle
50%
is
here
and
then
the
top,
which
is
51
thousand
or
more
now.
The
first
thing
you
should
know
that,
although
we've
had
growth
row,
45
percent
of
the
net
new
jobs
were
in
these
low
income
or
low
bottom
earning
industries,
that's
actually
32
percent
of
all
employees,
so
32
percent
of
the
employment
base,
but
the
growth
that's
been
45
percent
than
in
a
new
job.
So
there's
going
to
be
more
of
those
low
wage
earners.
A
C
E
A
There's
here's
what
we're
talking
about
so
you
know:
I
picked
the
top
three
growth
industries
for
each
one
of
these
and
so
bottom
earning
industries.
Surprise,
surprise,
restaurants,
which
I
think
it's
about
3,000
jobs,
food
and
beverage
stores,
grocery
stores,
it's
about
90
or
960,
and
then
clothing
and
accessory
stores.
That
was
800.
A
A
So
here
is
probably
a
slide
that
you've
all
seen
before,
but
it's
probably
worth
sharing
and
that's
just
compared
average
monthly
Early's
to
the
state
about
twenty
percent
below,
and
it's
really
hard
to
tease
out
a
trend
there
we
net
yeah
the
best
I
can
do-
is
about
a
third
of
a
percent
point
gain
per
year.
So.
A
A
Black
workers
are
making
about
a
third
less
about
eight
percent
of
the
workforce,
Hispanic
about
a
quarter
less
they're
about
five
percent
of
the
workforce
and
shockingly
the
black
workforce
is
actually
spreading
a
little
bit
of
Park,
so
they're
they're,
not
Jeannette
I,
have
another
slide.
That
shows
that
Hispanics.
A
A
A
A
A
A
B
D
A
B
A
A
A
Thing
is
this
has
changed
so
the
working
and
living
in
Buncombe
County
met
actually
over
the
most
current
year
that
increased
by
five
thousand.
So
that's
a
fascinating
question.
You
know
why
that
is
those
people
were
driving
from
outside
and
now
they're
living
there.
So
something's
changed
and
we
have
some
a
few
slides.
We
may
get
to
that
and
then
I
think
as
interesting.
Is
this
group
of
in
commuters
there's
fewer
of
those
there's
about
two
thousand
less
though
so?
A
A
And
they're,
coming
from
Henderson
campus,
pretty
flat
line,
everybody
else,
I
lived
in
Haywood,
County
hasn't
had
a
lot
has
changed
air
and
McDonald's.
Actually,
I
I
did
a
project
for
the
Henderson
County
Commission
I've
been
three
years
ago,
and
their
economy
was
at
that
time
and
I
I
wouldn't
be
surprised
that
has
it
they
had
not
regained
their
jobs
like
we
had
regained
our
jobs
here,
like
I,
said
by
2013.
They
had
not,
but
if
you
looked
at
their
community
numbers,
that's
because
they
were
coming
here
so.
A
Couldn't
find
work
in
Henderson
County
after
the
loss
of
jobs
there,
so
they
many
of
them
decided
to
County,
so
that
was
sort
of
the
relief
valve
for
that
and
then
I
look
at
the
networker
inflows
by
industry,
meeting
importing
workers
and
it's
virtually
every
industry,
the
only
one
that
doesn't
show
up.
Here's
one
I
didn't
talk
about
earlier.
That
was
educating
services
that
I
showed
them
that
one
slide
was
declining
and
I
had
to
mention
for
the
clients
that
I
show
on
that
slide.
Probably
you're
not
significant
and
I'll.
A
Just
take
a
little
segue
to
talk
about
educational
services.
Educational
services
is
public
and
private
and
private
employment
and
education
services
has
got
apply
about
500
jobs.
On
the
public
side
it
breaks
out
into
local
and
state,
the
state
would
be
I,
guess:
UNCA,
that's
up
about
a
hundred
jobs,
but
local
employment
and
educational
services.
A
Public
is
down
by
still
down
by
about
a
hundred
and
fifty
jobs.
So
that's
the
only
one
that
really
hasn't
caught
up.
Don't
know
why
there's
proper
some
of
you
that
may
understand,
but
that's
actually
the
only
group
there's
127
people
in
educational
services
that
drive
out
of
Lincoln
County
for
their
jobs,
which.
A
A
Worry
about
this
is
really
confusing
travel
time
to
all
this
in
comedian
out
community.
Doesn't
that
mean
that
people
are
spending
more
time
with
the
road
and
so
I
looked
at
2011,
and
this
is
the
amount
of
time
these
are
minutes
over
here
that
you
spend
on
the
road
to
get
to
your
job
and
it's
hard.
This
jumps
out.
A
A
A
A
Here's
retail
sales-
and
you
can
see
you
can
see
if,
by
the
way,
these
are
robots
that
you
see
at
Christmas.
This
is
why
I
tell
reporters.
You
never
can
report
what
happened
in
January
versus
December
because
it
always
drops-
and
you
can
obviously
see
the
trend,
but
I
want
this
little
small
chart
down
here
at
the
bottom
overlaid.
It
is
the
percentage
change
on
a
12
month,
moving
average,
and
so
you
can
see
that
retail
sales
has
been
still.
C
A
You're
over
here,
the
pace
of
that
growth
has
been
declining,
can't
say
exactly
why,
but
don't
think
it's
just
that
retail
sales
are
booming
and
going
up
up
up,
they're,
actually
sort
of
moderating
and
here's
the
numbers
of
it's
really
the
total
permit
value.
So
this
would
be
all
the
permits
in
the
unincorporated
Buncombe
County,
and
it
would
also
be
any
new
structures
within
the
city.
The
Buncombe
County
owns
so
the
new
bucket
County
Health
and
Human
Services
Building.
A
That
would
be
in
here,
and
there
probably
be
a
few
others,
but
nothing
too
major,
and
you
can
see
that
there's
a
new
world
we're
at
here
I'm
going
to
give
you
an
example
here,
so
the
average
monthly
permit
value
now.
This
is
I'll
break
it
down
in
a
few
slides
in
the
future
here,
but
commercial,
multifamily
and
single-family.
That's
basically,
what's
in
here
plus
you've
got
some
smaller
groups
as
well,
but
the
average
monthly
and
between
2010
and
2013
was.
A
So
the
story
is
it's
double
and
remember:
a
lot
of
this
stuff
is
paper.
A
lot
of
it
is
still
being
worked.
You
know
it
hasn't
worked
its
way,
we're
not
seen
it
all
yet
so
this
is
this.
I
can
say
we're
gonna
see
a
lot
more
or
continuing
very
strong
construction
activities
and
it's
double
what
we
were
in
previous
years.
You
can
see
this
as
well.
In
the
different
categories.
A
A
D
C
A
A
A
Draw
on
this
slide
much,
but
commercial
is
there's
two
pieces
of
commercial
which
actually
sort
of
need.
Two
different
things:
news
and
the
commercial
additions
and
alterations
are
working
on.
What's
what's
already
there
and
I
have
the
reason
I
show
this
I've
been
to
some
communities
that
have
a
lot
of
commercial
and
it's
all
new
and
some
that
it's
just
the
other
way
around.
But
you
can
see
at
least
most
recently
there's
a
lot
of
additions.
A
What
new
tundra?
This
is
quarterly
units
and
again
the
big
picture
here
is
a
huge
number
of
multifamily
units
over
the
last
two
years:
I
counted
up
number
of
single
family
and
the
number
of
multifamily,
and
they
were
almost
identical
about
1700
new
units
in
each
group
and
looking
back,
we've
never
had
anything
for
that.
We
had
a
quarter,
maybe
but
never
two
years
of
that,
so
a
real
surge
in
multifamily
I
would
suspect
puppy
the
base
search
go
back
a
few
years.
A
There's
monthly
foreclosures
still
in
the
housing
side
of
things,
these
are
down
to
the
teens
by
the
way
in
the
months.
This
would
be
a
reflection
of
the
stress
on
houses,
and
so
this
would
say
people
buying
homes,
but
they're
able
to
buy
homes
and
they
can
afford
to
buy
homes.
I
have
this
data
to
go
back
to
1998.
This
is
the
lowest.
It's
ever
been.
Some.
A
In
the
past,
think
I
wrote
this
down
for
years,
so
right
now
we're
on
Warren
pace
to
have
about
250
foreclosures
for
the
year
of
2017.
In
the
previous
bubble
years,
we
were
up
to
about
1200
per
year,
so
a
huge
change
there
in
spite
of
all
the
new
building
in
the
new
household,
whereas
an
intial
activity
going
on,
there's
not
a
lot
of
pain,
at
least,
and
so
someone
says:
are
we
getting
ready
for
a
bubble?
A
Bubble
here
at
all,
this
looks
very
healthy.
Here's
existing
home
sales,
the
red
line,
is
that
price,
which
obviously
you
can
see
it's
going
up
and
then
the
bars
are
the
quarterly
number
of
homes
to
sell,
and
this
chart
just
sets
us
up
for
the
next
chart.
So
what
I
did
is
I
looked
at
your
over
your
change
by
quarter,
and
so
what
this
says
is
prices
are
going
up
almost
double-digit,
but
the
number
of
homes
is
going
down.
I
just
so
happened.
A
I
pick
up
my
mail,
my
PO
Box
on
the
way
here
and
Beverly
Hanks
has
a
quarterly
real
estate
report
and
they
show
one
to
two
months
of
inventory,
for
homes,
$400,000
or
less
so
an
incredibly
tight
market.
I,
don't
know
if
we've
ever
before
and
those
are
some
pretty
healthy
prices
there.
You
know
magic,
a
13%
war.
A
A
They
have
monthly
home
sales,
and
you
can
see
this
is
sort
of
what
I
would
say
would
be
the
pack,
and
these
are
the
high
flyers
and,
as
you
can
see,
Buncombe
County
is
whether
it
wants
to
be
or
not
is
in
a
high
flier,
so
I
think
that's
Dare,
County,
Orange,
County
and
Chatham
or
above
us.
I
can't
see
it,
but
Wake
County
is
right
behind
us
there,
but
a
real
and
I.
Don't
think
you
find
any
other
line
on
there.
Those
other
counties
that
shows
this
sort
of.
A
So
pretty
dramatic
jump
there
and
then
those
of
you
that
are
interested
ready.
This
is
81
counties
and
it's
the
same
sort
of
picture.
We
went
from
the
12th
highest
to
the
sixth
class
and
again
I
think
you've
got
Chad
in
the
orange
and
wakes
they've
got
communities
out
in
the
outer
bank
and
the
communities
that
are,
you
know
with
the
raleigh-durham
there.
A
A
Produced
numbered
same
of
appreciation
whenever
Fannie,
Mae
or
Freddie
Mac,
we
see
values
a
house
because
either
its
soul
or
somebody's
getting
a
new
mortgage
or
they
look
at
the
value
of
that
home.
And
so
you
can
see
that
over
the
last
three
years
we've
been
homes
have
been
appreciating
here
greater
than
in
this,
the
nation.
Although
it's
still
like
eight
or
nine
percent,
we
in
the
past,
we
got
all
the
way
up
to
thirteen
percent
annual
appreciation
and
before
the
big
bubble.
But
we
had
four
years
of
negative.
A
A
A
A
And
it
had
a
margin
of
error,
ninety
percent
plus
or
minus
a
thousand.
So
even
if
you
win
a
thousand,
it's
either
he
you
know
somewhere
down
here
here.
It's
still
a
big
change.
There's
been
something
significant
that
happened
here
now:
I
look
back
at
the
multi-family
permitting
and
think
maybe
we're
seeing
that.
Maybe
this
is
the
first
signs
of
actually
and
less
people
driving
outside
and
staying
here.
So
that
might
be
the
first
signs
of
what
all
this
building
is.
Actually
doing.
A
A
A
B
A
Don't
know
I
did
check
and
see.
So
how
does
this
compare
to
the
state
in
the
nation?
And
you
know
the
number
of
owner-occupied
those
percentage-wise
pretty
much
like
it-
is
nationwide
a
little
bit
lower,
I
suppose,
but
not
a
big
difference
and
then
I
went
one
step
further
and
looked
at
by
income,
and
so
this
is
all
about
those
who
are
earning
less
than
households.
Earning
less
than
20,000
doesn't
really
answer
the
question,
but
that's
where
the
real
movement
has
been
in
a
movement
for
the
positive.
A
B
A
The
strong
and
solid
population
growth
continues.
That's
you
know
that
you
can
put
in
the
bank.
That's
you're,
very
fortunate
that
respect
in
the
state,
the
nation
for
the
last
seven
years,
domestic
in
migration.
You
know
it's
always
about
people
moving
into
the
area.
That's
the
history
of
welcome
County
in
Western
North
Carolina
is
our
population.
Growth
is
90
percent
or
more
because
of
people
moving
in
and
fortunately
in
Buncombe
County
we're
seeing
about
twenty.
Eight
percent
of
those
people
are
Millennials,
so
I
know
my
years
of
the
chamber.
A
But
it's
it
looks
like
there's
a
trend
where
that
may
have
turned
around
Anderson
major
source
and
Buncombe
County
outside
of
a
lot
of
people
that
drive
out
for
education,
educational
services,
it's
important
workers
for
all
the
other
sectors,
burning,
permitting
activity
surges,
emiliĀ“s
use.
The
word
boom,
I'm
always
afraid
to
use
that
word,
but
it's
across
everything,
everything's
double
or
more
previous
to
2013.
A
The
housing
market
is
incredibly
tight,
as
I
said,
when
I
read
this
41
to
2
months
of
inventory
for
anything
below
$42,000
and
prices
and
rents,
as
my
big
data
slide,
show,
climbing
not
only
to
ourselves
but
relative
to
the
rest
of
the
state
and
the
affordability
signals
are
mixed.
We've
got
a
lot
of
building.
We've
got
obviously
the
census
numbers
showing
that
there's
a
reduction
in
the
number
of
people
that
are
our
cost
burdened,
but
there's
another
data
that
doesn't
fit
that
as
well.
So
thank
you.