Carroll County, MD FY 20 Carroll County Government Budget Process, 7 Mar 2019

Previous Meeting

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From YouTube: FY 20 Budget Overview ~ March 7, 2019 10 AM

Description

Item 2
FY20 Budget Overview
Department of Management & Budget ~ Mr. Ted Zaleski

Item 3
Briefing/Discussion/Decision
Request Approval for Grant Application and Acceptance of Award –
Trevanion Terrace Stormwater Management Facility Retrofit Design

A

And next on our agenda for this morning is the fy 2004 you and we've got you.

B

Slated for the next two hours ted, so hang on to your seats, and here we go.

B

Yeah, I'm almost surely gonna be making you uncomfortable this morning. You.

C

Normally, do we've been talking not in-depth, but for a while now I've been.

D

Mentioning some things so, hopefully the general idea of what we're gonna be.

D

Talking about today will not come to you as a surprise, but that still is gonna.

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Leave us uncomfortable talking about this, to think about this and say where.

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Where do we go from here so today coastal overview, we're really.

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Gonna try to do two things. One is to share with you our assessment of the.

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Revenue picture and the other is to talk not in great depth but on the.

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Expenditure side just give you some sense of some of the things we see.

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Coming some of the things that you probably will have to deal with, as you.

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Work through developing your proposed budget.

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So the core message is all of our major revenues are growing more slowly than we.

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Anticipated and we are gonna have to back off of the revenue projections that.

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Are in your current 19 through 24 plan.

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We have limited flexibility, so every decision we make in trying to deal with.

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These things, it really becomes an important decision, even things that seem.

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Relatively small, we have so little room. Everything is big in a sense and the.

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Pressures on our ability to maintain service levels remain and, and really I'm.

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Saying is nothing. Nothing has happened in this last year to make us more.

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Comfortable now, those of you who heard this last year might say these core.

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Messages seem very familiar and there's a reason for that. It's because they are.

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Exactly the same messages that I gave to you last year, which is part of this.

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Bigger picture that I'm going to be sharing today, talk talked some at the.

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The chamber lunch about how some things have been nagging at my mind, for for.

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Some years now have become clearer, if not clear the world has changed. You know.

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The idea that we're waiting for something more to happen, I think we need.

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To push behind us, it's there's, there's nothing more coming and that's not to.

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Say that think the world can't change again, I'm not predicting that there will.

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Not be another real estate boom, or that we won't see salaries and wages, starting.

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To rise more quickly than they are but you're saying with what we know, what we.

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Can look at now we've gotten to where we're going.

D

As we approach the budget, of course, we always have board goals in mind. This is.

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Always challenging for us in the budget office, because, ideally, what we would.

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Have is the board of commissioners; here? Are our goals and to some extent we have.

D

That but offer often there are differing ideas among you on what you think of the.

D

Highest priorities where you want us to go so sometimes we have a very good idea.

D

Of what commissioner fraser wants or what commissioner weaver wants, but not.

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As good an idea of what is it that the whole board once and anything, you can do.

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To say, as a board, this is something we want to see happen or something we don't.

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Want to see happen that will help us develop what we're gonna bring to you.

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And get you the information that you need as well as you have a good idea.

E

What I want that's right, yeah and, unfortunately, that that thinking is not.

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Unique to you straws for everyone, it's like my goals for today, we're basically.

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Here, to set the stage for everything, that's still ahead of us, we're gonna, be.

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Coming to you in a couple weeks, with our recommendations to you, then you'll be.

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Hearing from the agencies and then you'll start your own deliberations on.

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The proposed budget- this is, give you something to start thinking about where.

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Do you want to go not looking for any decisions today, but any things that are.

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Coming into your mind, any ideas, any thoughts of this rather than this again.

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The more you can offer us the better the job we can do of trying to bring you.

D

What you need can't want to look backwards. Just briefly say you know we're gonna be.

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Talking about where do we want to go? I think it's helpful to understand where.

D

Have we been in recent years? So what we're talking about here is the four.

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Budgets of the sixtieth board, those four budgets increased a total of forty two.

D

Point eight million dollars or about eleven and a half percent increase some.

D

Something less than three percent a year of that forty two point: eight million.

D

Dollars and as I always do when I give numbers like this, it's not as simple as.

D

This makes it sound because there's a lot of other things, moving in different directions behind all this, so the exact numbers here really aren't as important.

D

As just the relationships you know, where were we choosing to put the money we had.

D

Available education, I education, that's actually public schools over that same.

D

Period of time got an increase of twenty-one point four.

D

Million dollars, half of the total increase that you had during that time.

D

And there are people who advocate for the school system getting half of.

D

Everything you have, this is just a coincidence. I am not putting this out.

D

There as the idea that they ought to work that way, sherriff law enforcement.

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Side three point: eight million dollar increase youth include the detention.

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Center and his total operations, a six million dollar increase total of public.

D

Works far and away the biggest department that actually reports to you.

D

Increased five point: nine million dollars carroll community college; two.

D

And a half million dollars, nine one, one: two million dollars and nine eleven one.

D

You know, even though the transition from the state police to the sheriff is our.

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Law enforcement has been a while ago. Now, when we made that transition, we tried to.

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Do it with the least number of personnel in 911 that we thought we could get by.

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To do the job we've continued to evaluate that.

D

And we've continued to add positions as we try to find that place, that we can.

D

Say: okay, we're comfortable now! Is that not when one going to be a continuing.

F

Growth or now that we've moved on to the new you know system is that going to. I.

F

Mean are we gonna see a much lower number worries? What do you think.

F

Okay, well now this increase is built in now, so that's in there right forever. I.

D

Think nine one positions will continue to be a topic of conversation for you. If.

D

You spoke with them in 91. I don't believe they would say we're comfortable.

D

That we have the staff that we need hey. This is not tied to the next gen 9 1, no.

F

This is tied to personnel serving denial right. Okay, all right all right level of.

D

Service, sorry, okay, yes, and next time. Next gen 9 1 wine will further.

D

Complicate this this one: these are ems, 1.6 million dollars over this for years,.

D

And it this is your department again 1.1, and I also need to point out here.

D

There's been a significant increase in the amount of money that you're putting into it through the capital budget as well. On these increases, do you have a.

E

Increase in what the percentage is that we give them and that, for other words, education, we give them x amount and the 21 point four million dollars is what.

E

Percentage increase over that amount. Do you have? uh Yes that will be coming up.

D

Education, I think was okay, say, but you have it like for education share as.

E

Public works was all that donnie fenn's. Okay, then looked at it another way and.

D

This is about percent increases. There are some places where the dollars.

D

Weren't as big, but the percent change was big, which is another indication of.

D

Some place where you know you were saying this is a priority for us.

D

Just to quickly run down those rape crisis, intervention service has gone up.

D

88% over those four years board of elections 62%, this is not really a trend.

D

As you made, that's the the bill that the state is sending us and a lot of that is.

D

Because of early voting additional voting site use service bureau 54% this.

D

Is largely about the commissioner is asking why sb to be our drug treatment.

D

Service provider, human services program, 48 percent- this is largely because a few.

D

Years ago they came to us basically saying we either need more money for.

D

Running the shelters or commissioners, you need to find another way of doing.

D

This we chose to give them more money to keep running it. Nine-One-One 45% public.

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Outreach, this is our our social media tv. You know all the things we're doing to.

D

Try and get the word out: 43% sheriff just law enforcement 36%. His total.

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Operation 32%, family and children, services, 36% and community college 33%.

D

And want to be careful, you know when I talk about where the dollars gone or.

D

Whatever, where had the percent changes been large, this is not with any.

D

Editorial comment about was that a good decision, or not I'm just saying, here's.

D

The choices that we made so to dive a little bit deeper public schools, 21.

D

Point four million or 12 and a half percent, so they grew a little bit faster.

D

Than the budget as a total butt, similarly carroll community college.

D

During those four years, what was in the plan for them would have been an.

D

$800,000 increase you actually ever four years out of an additional 1.7 million.

D

Dollars for them to fund salary increases two hundred thousand five.

D

Hundred thousand six hundred thousand four hundred thousand in each of those.

D

Years, what impact it will have on this budget is still up in the air there.

D

They're debating legislation down there now and I'm not going to predict at this.

D

Point what's gonna come out of that as we look down the road with almost total.

D

Certainty, I can say yes, this is gonna, have an impact on the budget and it's.

D

Probably gonna be a very big impact, but we have no means of quantifying it yet.

D

Okay, before we get through the budget, you'll have a better understanding of.

G

This year's impact on that correct well, depending on how quickly they act sahni.

D

Die is midnight the day before you begin your proposed budget deliberations well,.

D

Hope it doesn't play out this way, but we have seen significant decisions made in.

D

The last evening, so we're scots ii wish. I had a better answer. I guess what we.

F

Can do somewhat is look at. You know, worst-case best-case type of scenarios.

F

But there's so much unknown. On this I mean it's almost best and now stories.

F

Not to waste our resources and to say we don't know right now: yeah and the.

D

Problem worth is that there are so many variables yeah first, how much spending.

D

Might they approve in this, but in this budget right? How much of that will go to.

D

The counties of what goes to the counties, what portion will actually come.

D

To carroll county- and you know we can guess at it- that would truly be a guess.

D

But at you know I have looked at that. In one sense, the current commission's cost.

D

Estimate is 3.8 billion dollars a year at full implementation, a number which I.

D

Believe is gonna end up being much smaller than the actual impact. But let's.

D

Let's take that 3.8 billion for a minute and let's assume that the state and.

D

Counties are gonna split that equally, I don't know that that's gonna happen, but.

D

Let's, let's make that assumption for now, so I'd be 1.9 billion dollars to.

D

Counties in total, we don't have any idea right now how that will be given out to.

D

The counties again almost total certainty that there.

D

Will be some sort of wealth, consideration and somerset county and.

D

Montgomery county are going to be looked at differently, we don't know what that's.

D

Gonna mean to us, but on that 1.9 billion, sometimes we can.

D

Look at things carroll county is portion of the state, and 3% is often a good good.

D

Number and I'm really really hoping it's not a good number in this case, though,.

D

Because that would mean 57 million 57 million dollars a year for carroll.

D

County our budget this year is four hundred and eleven million dollars. We're.

D

Gonna be talking about struggling to figure out how to balance this. This plan.

D

Clearly, we have no clear path to picking up 57 million dollars worth of new.

D

Expenditures, and even if that's even that's half that I don't know how we.

D

Would do that carroll, county public library again a little bit faster than.

D

The budget as a whole, but in the same ballpark.

D

These are ams as the slides little busy just because there's a lot of things.

D

Been happening in the last four years now, there's 1.1 million dollars of.

D

Increases planned in those four budgets: the commissioners added, almost a half.

D

Million dollars of ongoing funding beyond that.

D

There were increases in 16 and 17 in 18, there's actually a decrease. This was not.

D

Taking money away from them in terms of money, they could spend, though, but with.

D

Our new computer-aided dispatch, we took responsibility for some costs. That would.

D

Have been in their budgets that hundred thousand is just moving from one spot to.

D

Another does not diminish their ability to pay for anything, 1.3 million dollars.

D

Over those years for our self-contained breathing apparatus, this says one time.

D

But we've gotten into a predictable but interesting situation. Here there was an.

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Initial request years ago for the county county to put up some money against a.

D

Match to replace them as equipment and came back second year to get some for.

D

Some other companies now we've done it multiple times, and I think there are.

D

People out there now who who's thinking is well. The commissioner is always fun.

D

This so what started out as one-time funding is starting to look a whole lot.

D

Like ongoing funding, we did give one-time funding of three hundred.

D

Thousand dollars to try and find ways to help recruitment retention, we put two.

D

Hundred thousand dollars into replacement of a reserve ambulance and.

D

This last bullet is not actually in the visa budget, but it's related to that.

D

Mess we've increased the plan funding for low sap through the operating plan.

D

By and on the expenditure side, I mean the commissioners also improved.

D

Increased benefits for those seven, oh yea and low sap.

D

I don't know if the to do commissioners have brought across this year, but let.

D

Them let the service awards program. This is a program to provide a benefit.

D

Eventually, to longtime volunteers.

D

Sheriff in fiscal year, nineteen, my profession, thousands bullets enough.

D

Sewer you've approved a ongoing four percent salary increase for the.

D

Sheriff's employees in fiscal year, nineteen you budgeted another five.

D

Percent, on top of that, for a total of nine percent salary increases now the.

D

Sheriff built his own plan with the money that was available there, so it's.

D

Not that everybody got nine percent, some people got more than that. Some people.

D

Got less than that, not in carroll the fighting, the opioid problem, there are.

D

Five new positions added to the sheriff, then you added ten positions for school.

D

Resource officers now, of course, this was not in the last four years, but in our.

D

Plan there's also an intent to fund another ten sros in fiscal year. Twenty.

D

You made improvements to the detention center pension. We budgeted for housing.

D

Some inmates, in another county, that is not a nineteen budget that was in.

D

Several years budget, these are not big items, but other things you acted on. You.

D

Replaced, oh their guns, we have tasers truck scales, level, speed.

D

Trailers, this was not in the sheriff's budget, but at his initiative we moved.

D

From one cad system to another, you approved training, academy and also space.

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At north carroll high school to house the trace training academy state's.

D

Attorney not in carroll for news positions, you added funding for a drug.

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Court prosecutor position- and this doesn't actually show up in the state's.

D

Attorneys budget, it shows up in our grant fund, but you put a $65,000 match.

D

For positions in a state grant.

D

Youth service bureau, we talked about how the commissioners asked them to take on.

D

Responsibility for drug treatment services putting 125,000, then fiscal.

D

Year, 17 ongoing and then each year we're having another 75,000 ongoing until we.

D

Hit $500,000 in fy 22 and not in carroll, because the pieces fall in different.

D

Places I just wanted to pull all that together for a moment in 19 you added.

D

Another three hundred thousand, which has been working its way to different.

D

Programs that singer from the health department has been to talk with you on.

D

Occasion about that then there was one point: seven million dollars of ongoing.

D

That's those 11 positions in the sheriff and state's attorney that money, quality.

D

Service bureau and then the 300,000 and 19 that I just mentioned. Let's move on.

D

To a state budget for a little bit, this is not as interesting this year as.

D

It has been in many years the governor did not put in a budget finance.

D

Reconciliation act, which is often necessary just because the governor will.

D

Need legislation to make his budget actually work, he didn't ask for anything.

D

In his budget that required legislation now, a perfe has been introduced for.

D

Other reasons, but not because of what the starting point for their state.

D

Budget, at least now, as always, there's uncertainty, we have to wait out the.

D

Legislative process we were just talking about, there's always the danger. We don't.

D

Actually know where we are until we're about ready to start our discussions.

D

Their plan isn't balanced and you look out a few years in the plan and they're.

D

They're expected expenditures exceed their expected revenues by more than 1.5.

D

Billion dollars now the state will always balance the budget. So I'm not.

D

Saying that they're not going to get there, but knowing that that's hanging.

D

Out there is always a worry, because we're often part of figuring out how.

D

They're gonna balance their budget and we already talked about this. So what.

D

Does statement much budget in his statement state budget mean in carroll.

D

D

Now, in the states, state budget and department of legislative service.

D

Documents they talk about aid to local government, as you've heard from me. Many.

D

Times we always need to remember that 85% of a local government is what goes.

D

To the public schools, it's not money that you get to make any decisions on.

D

Other pieces go to the health department, the library community college again.

D

Those are things you have no choices on less than 10 percent of what the state.

D

Calls aid to local government actually comes to elected officials. You the.

D

Commissioners and the mayors and councils in our towns, so in that agent.

D

Local government, though carroll county public schools, up 2.7 million dollars or.

D

Two percent not a lot of money, but a pretty big change, given where we've been.

D

For the last decade, where state funding has actually been decreasing or or flat,.

D

Carroll community college basically is flat carroll county public libraries up.

D

Three and a half percent, but that's only thirty, seven thousand dollars to their.

D

Budget and as a reminder, as a matter of practice, the library uses the money that.

D

The state sends them for materials, so they're buying folks, videos, cds, dvds,.

D

Health department up one hundred thirty four thousand or about seven and a half.

D

Percent they haven't had too many good increases.

D

In fact, if we go back to the bad times the pieces of a local government that.

D

Got hurt the worst were number one counties and towns number two was health.

D

Department's there's, actually some talk down in annapolis, of trying to restore.

D

Funding to health departments to pre-recession levels want to make.

B

Initiatives this year so right now, if we look at the towns, if basically we're.

D

Talking about is highway user revenue for maintaining roads and program, open.

D

Space for park programs, highway user revenues they're seeing an increase of.

D

About six hundred thousand dollars, never forget, though, that when we talk about.

D

These increases- this is still far far below where we were a decade ago and.

D

Program open space flat for money coming to you, we're saying about two and a half.

D

Million dollars about two hundred thousand dollar increase. Well, I say far.

D

Far less at one time we were getting almost twelve million dollars of highway.

D

User revenue, police, say descent relief, lat program, a open space of essentially.

D

Flat and on how we use a revenue you've heard this before, but I think it's.

D

Important to remind you that this has changed not only how the dollars going.

D

Away, but this is no longer legislated formula- it's become this idea of a grant.

D

Not a competitive grant, but the key here is: this can go away at any time. You.

D

Don't even need to go through a legislative process to say we're gonna.

D

Drop the formula.

D

So where are we these days? Look at our projected fiscal year. Nineteen current.

D

Year, year-end.

D

On the revenue side, right now, we're figuring we're gonna come in about two.

D

Hundred thousand dollars above budget we'll talk more about individual.

D

Revenues shortly.

D

Urine projection in total, plus 200,000 the revenue side.

D

We still have four million dollars in our reserve for contingency, although we.

D

Have not fully accounted for the cost to the last snowstorm, yet we're already.

D

Bumping up against having spent that budget, so it's possible that we we will.

D

Have to start eating into the reserve, hopefully not too much, though, have you.

D

Spoken with mother nature, she's, not returning. My calls.

D

And we'll hope there are no more events ahead of us and part of the problem. We.

D

Faced some years you know we haven't had a big snow that should this year, but.

D

We've had a number of snow or ice events, and sometimes you know getting just a.

D

Trace of snow ends up costing us just as much as having gotten five inches of.

D

Snow, you end up doing all the same things, especially when it's at night or.

D

On the weekend, which seems to happen so often, yeah overtime is overtime. No.

D

Matter how much ended up on the ground net savings of expenditures? This is our.

D

Projection, that's right now point seven million dollars that won't be spent so.

D

We we add up this: the unspent money and the revenue and excess we get about five.

D

Point nine million dollars at the end of the year. Now we have that one percent.

D

That we always assume is available to carry into a another year. Those of you.

D

Who are on the board last year might remember, I proposed trying to start.

D

Backing us out of this, I think you know its origins go way back beyond me and.

D

For a long time, arguably, you know it might not be the best idea, but it really.

D

Wasn't the problem now with our decreasing flexibility? I.

D

Really like to see this go away, you know my problem is we can't make it go away.

D

Without significantly impacting your bottom line, which is already.

D

Challenging enough him so 5.9 maeín take out the 3.9, that's already planned for.

D

Fiscal year 21 right now we would see about 2 million dollars left at the end.

D

Of fiscal year 19 that would be available for you to either park aside a.

D

Savings or to use for some other expenditure, it seems awfully lean. Yes,.

D

All right: let's talk a little bit more about the revenues and, as I'm talking.

D

Some some ideas that flow through all all of what we're gonna talk about the.

D

Decisions that got made the assumptions we're making. Why do we look? We look one.

D

Is there there's always tension on the revenue projections between trying to be.

D

Careful that we don't overstate our projections and taking money off the.

D

Table that handcuffs, your ability to make choices now I would never want to.

D

Put money out there for you to make choices that I don't think is a.

D

Reasonable expectation, but there's so much, we don't know our reasonable.

D

Expectation covers some some ground and in many cases I'm going to be making an.

D

Argument to you, we should not be expecting more than this, but at the same.

D

Time I say that I can't tell you there won't be more than this and income tax.

D

Is going to be a really interesting one, and I want to get into it too too far,.

D

But because I'm gonna talk more about in just a second.

D

But what we're gonna tell you, you know if you said so ted. Are you telling me.

D

That it's not reasonable to think we might end up with 3 million or 5 million.

D

Dollars more than you said, I would tell you, no, I don't think it's unreasonable. I.

D

Don't think we can count on it, but it absolutely could happen. Oh then, there.

D

And there's this idea of the rebound and again this became.

D

Much clearer to me this year, as we looked at some of the numbers, some of.

D

The some of the information we have now that we didn't have a year ago there.

D

Were still places, I think part of my thinking was it's taking a long time, but.

D

It's still gonna bounce back into something. There are places now row.

D

Saying I think we should forget that idea that we've gotten the bounce we're.

D

Gonna get and then the other thing is there are things we know now that we.

D

Didn't know this time, a year ago and combined with some things, we learned.

D

Last year, if some of this is now leading us to say, the expectations just have to.

D

Change so looking at our top revenues.

D

Real property, we budgeted one 96.9, we're expecting one. Ninety seven point: six: so.

D

A little bit more than we planned for in our 20 projection about two hundred and.

D

Three million dollars- and you heard this from me- the other day- property tax just.

D

In fiscal year, nineteen finally caught up to where we were in fiscal year, 11.

D

Now, that's not totally about performance. We do need to recognize the board cut.

D

Property tax rates, so that was part of that picture, but a lot of it has been.

D

Because we dropped- and it's taken us that long to get back income tax, one.

D

Forty eight point: eight we're figuring one. Forty eight point, eight now, but more.

D

To talk about there, one fifty two point: eight for fiscal year, 2005 as the said.

F

The board dropped the rape. Well, you did that happen.

F

There's a fifty nine eleven thirteen, it was twenty twelve wasn't. It was two: they.

D

Did it over two years so well, income taxes right, that's my understanding! As.

F

Well, I think what could also help is, if you go a little bit further back to.

F

Where we are now have rates been dropped, and is that the first time those rates.

F

Have been dropped in the last ten years, fifteen years where we at you know as.

F

Far as any trends regarding the the tax rates that we have, the ability to.

F

Influence, okay, well, the 59th board drop property.

D

Tax by three cents, that would be the first change since the mid 90s, where.

D

They were actually very significantly and then they dropped income tax from.

D

Three point: zero, five to three point: zero. Three, yes, they've been the 59th.

F

Fourth right, so, let's before you go and that would have that's, that's the only.

D

Income tax decrease that I'm aware of okay, and I guess in a nutshell, do you.

F

Know why it's basically philosophical with that board? They they believe that.

D

We should be making an effort to reduce the tax burden.

H

In the the property, tax rates were reduced in fy 12 and fy 13. The income.

H

Tax was reduced in 16 and 17. Is it coming for other jurisdictions? Another.

F

Choice you've made you're aware of changing tax rates. Over years I mean is.

F

It like a you know: two three year, four year window, other jurisdictions have.

F

Changed one way or the other changes happen all the time in both directions. I.

D

Don't think you would find any pattern to it. You know it's. It's. Okay,.

A

Reaction to discussions at the moment or something somebody wants to see happen.

D

Okay, and if you wanted to see that meiko actually has a tax serpent, they do.

D

Every year, but they have years of history, that'd be great, you could see every county and I think I actually have a.

B

Copy that in my office, okay, recordation we're actually figuring.

D

It we're gonna come up short of what we budgeted talk more about this in just a.

D

Minute, with a little bit of an increase in the 20 railroad and public utilities,.

D

And business property, these two revenues: we don't get very much information to.

D

Work with we're mostly reacting to what actually happened so with railroad and.

D

Public utilities we've seen this growing a little bit: business property we've.

D

Seen flat sometimes dropping a little bit and our investment income we're.

D

Looking at coming in and right around budget with another increase for next.

D

Year we have seen rates starting to rise, we'll still have to watch and see how.

D

Quickly, these changes happen and yeah there's another piece of this. You know.

D

Sometimes our our experience here doesn't.

D

Change as quickly as the rates do, because we have money in investments and.

D

We have to wait until they come free before we get the new higher rate, so.

D

This is now looking at how things have changed from your adopted 19 through 24.

D

Plan and what we are seeing now so first row, you see real property tax, since they.

D

Were saying, 400,000 lower in 20 growing to 1.7 million dollars, lower and fiscal.

D

Year, 24 and this well again we'll be getting into more detail, but this is.

D

Largely about the last reassessment in group 1, south carroll, coming in lower.

D

Than we anticipated and then us backing off of our expectations for group 1, the.

D

Next time they come around stormwater fund. We saw less debt than we had built.

D

Into our plans, this is actually good. This is money that was freed up, 400,000.

D

And 20 and then ongoing 200,000, so net change in real property tax. You see down.

D

The bottom there growing to 1.5 million dollars in fiscal year 24, so the first.

D

Row here is the last row. The last slide just carried that over for you.

D

Then we add relevant public utility and business property and to get you it now.

D

A total property tax bottom line, so this is a little bit better picture, but we're.

D

Still down a million dollars in fiscal year, 24 from what we have in our plan.

D

Today, they'd get back a slide a minute. The ag press that no change.

B

Just right, this is about yeah. We take two and a quarter percent of our.

D

Property tax to the ad press program, some of that goes to cash purchases. Some.

D

Goes to support the installment purchase agreements depending on exactly what.

D

Happens with the installment purchase agreements during the year could change.

D

How much money we needed to use there it this just worked out. Okay, so the.

F

Protection of ag press really will have not have any influence on any of us to.

F

Well, in future years, if there are more ipas than we plan for it couldn't more.

D

Or less it could impact what this will look like, but right now this is what we.

D

Know, okay: is there an indication of how far out we'll reach her? Was it a hundred.

C

Thousand acres of ag bris any idea how far we reach that. Well, I think it might.

D

Be getting two thousand acres a year. That's gonna expand that now, probably a.

H

Little over a thousand a year: okay, so if we continued it a thousand a year, you're.

D

Still more than twenty to twenty years away, but it's never gonna be as simple.

D

As that, before we get that far out there, you know there will be questions of. Is there still that much ag land right to.

D

Purchase right, you know: do people still want to be in the program right? Are we.

D

Still committing our fundings tonight to the program. Causelessly curious is the.

C

One that funding might be freed up once we reach that goal. Oh yeah, that's no!.

D

Part of our thinking I'll be dead and keep in mind at the hundred thousand.

B

Figure we could read it well know that my point is: that was just something they.

B

Plucked out of the air, there was never a reason to after I thought it was our.

A

Victory of the land- okay well, but there still was no yeah.

B

They just hit on that without really a whole lot of formula or what I was no.

C

Methodology behind not really, I talk to the people who get it. They said it was.

I

About further than okay, that's what they were shooting for, okay, okay, yeah is wait.

D

I think we have three hundred and thirty thousand acres or something something.

D

Like that, so it is roughly a third.

D

You're gonna say something you don't okay. So now the first line.

D

Here, property taxes again the last line from last slide. I showed you now we add.

D

In income tax, recreation interest and others, you see a lot of red here. This is.

D

What I was saying earlier that we know we know some things now that we didn't.

D

Know a year ago, and unfortunately, none of those things worked in our favor at.

D

You know everything everything that we got more information. You know led us to.

D

Say we're less confident of the projections that we had. But we are a.

F

Triple-A yeah! Well, you know, triple-a is not just about evaluating your revenue.

D

Picture it's about how do you deal with your revenue picture right and they're.

D

All saying sometimes him people will accuse me of being pessimistic when I'm.

D

Talking about some of these things- and I tell my I disagree- I am optimistic. I.

D

Believe we will figure out how to deal with it. We will make the choices we need.

D

To make to work through it, you know so talking about bad news. It's.

D

Not pessimistic it's just talking about no and you're right and that and that's.

F

An important point that triple a rating is a subjective. It's both subjective.

F

Objective approach to how you're dealing with the budget, how we're dealing with.

F

The funds so where we are praised for doing that and it's a very select group.

F

That gets that triple a three three over triple-a, so you should be optimistic and.

F

We should be optimistic, even though there's red numbers that we will deal.

F

Appropriately with these, so okay talk more about each of these.

D

Revenues but you see big impact on income tax, yeah, recordation, recreation.

D

Is really one of these places where I'm saying we've got we've gotten the.

D

Balance we're gonna get. We were trying to figure out where that might be, and I.

D

Think I think we figured it out now all right, the money we're making on our.

D

Investments we backed off that slightly in the future, just kind of reacting to.

D

How quickly interest rates are changing, but this is one you know what I can't.

D

Tell you with any confidence, I know what interest rates are going to be in fiscal year. Twenty four we're just trying to react to what we think is a reasonably.

A

So the information we have and other revenues that that's a combination of.

D

More than a hundred other revenues, you know obviously relatively small revenues.

D

You get down to the bottom and no getting around it. It's. This is an ugly.

D

Picture you were saying in fiscal year: twenty we think we're gonna have 3.2.

D

Million dollars less than what we thought we would have in 20 this time.

D

Last year that grows to 10.1 million dollars in fiscal year, 24.

D

So now, let's talk a little bit more specifically about these revenues and.

D

Why we think what we think yeah? It's also important. You understand, you know I.

D

Deeply believe that this whole process, all of our decisions, are driven by the.

D

Revenue projections: the starting point is how much money do you think you're.

D

Gonna have available, which sounds obvious, but I can tell you a lot of.

D

Jurisdictions, the starting point really is more: what are these expenditures add.

D

Up to how are we gonna be able to fund that that's how the general assembly.

C

Operates but we put a lot of thought a lot of debate into these numbers, we're.

D

Gonna give you, I can never tell you, we've got it right, because we know we.

D

Don't know enough to tell you, we know what this numbers gonna be we're trying.

D

To give you our best assessment with the revenues we have- and this gets a lot of.

D

Discussion or anyone discussion deb actually walked out on me as we were.

D

Talking about this, she thought I was getting a little too heated with my some of my questions but yeah, but I just want you understand you.

D

Know this these are not casually arrived at. You know this. A lot goes into us.

D

Landing on these numbers, you, like making people feel uncomfortable. Here's your.

D

Lunch yeah. I just thought it was useful to illustrate to you when I say there's.

D

Serious discussion that happily, I really mean that in a literal way,.

D

It's a property tax; here's our history of reassessments, going back to the late.

D

80S or early 90s, each bar is the assessment for one group, approximately a.

D

Third of the county each year- and you can see, of course, how that's gone up and.

D

Down every time is those bars below the graph. That's us going through the.

D

Recession: five consecutive years of negative.

D

Assessments and no matter what anybody tells you, nobody could have possibly.

D

Predicted that was going to happen yeah, so one of the things we've been dealing.

D

With you know at first was figuring out how bad can this get and being wrong.

D

Over and over again right, then eventually we did hit the bottom. Then.

D

The question turned to what's this recovery going to look like and in those.

D

Early years, I believed, because of how we had seen recessions before I believed.

D

That it would come back more quickly than it did. You know, as more years.

D

Started adding up it became clear. This is not going to be like other recessions,.

D

So that part isn't new but what's become sort of new for me now or more clear.

D

Again is the idea that not only is it's not going to look like other recessions.

D

But we're not going to bounce back from it in any timeframe that we're planning.

D

For the the blue line is actual revenue collection and you can see during the.

D

Recession, we actually went negative, we started collecting less property tax, one.

D

Year than we had in the previous year, that's something we had never.

D

Experienced before that I mean the world we lived in was property tax revenue.

D

Will always go up, it might go up faster or it might go more slowly, but it will.

D

Always go up until it didn't now. You can see things seem to have leveled off some.

D

Now and we're going to come back to this in just a second. But uh but look at.

D

Those reassessments, yet property tax is driven by two things where the.

D

Reassessments do to us and how much new construction do we have. This is just.

D

About reassessments here, the shaded blue boxes or the year of an actual.

D

Assessment or in this case projected assessments, so so the only one that's.

D

Actually happened is fiscal year. Twenty in south carroll, we know.

D

That one so then in 21 and 22 we're projecting six and a quarter percent.

D

Growth in the northeast and then in westminster and the northwest six and a.

D

Half percent is phased in over three years, which is why you see two point.

D

Zero eight two point: eight zero, eight, oh six: six and a half six and a quarter.

D

Percent then the two point: eight three and twenty three is eight and a half.

D

Percent in south carroll, now going in to this budget, we had figured. We were going.

D

To get ten percent in this lastest assessment we got eight percent and.

D

We're still a little surprised by that and when we built ten percent in, we were.

D

Not only feeling comfortable with ten percent yeah, we even had some discussions of. Could we should we go higher than 10 percent? Fortunately, we.

D

Didn't but this is another place where I'm starting to question myself harder.

D

On is it reasonable to continue to expect this rebound in reassessments and.

D

Us backing off from ten and twenty three to eight and a half is us saying no, it.

D

No longer seems reasonable to think we're going there, and that doesn't mean.

D

It won't happen, and it doesn't mean that we won't get to tour iii and find out. We.

D

Had a 13 percent reassessment yeah, I can't tell you it's not gonna happen, but.

D

Given what we've seen, I can't in good conscience tell you building into your.

D

Plans make your decisions based on that, and I tell you, even with the eight and a.

D

Half percent I'm not fully comfortable with that. You had the last two years. We.

D

Had both assessments came in higher than what we built in not tremendously higher.

D

But but higher, but I think we can get pretty comfortable now with this idea.

D

That six or seven percent is a reasonable expectation. Maybe that's also.

D

A reasonable expectation for south carroll in fiscal year, twenty three and.

D

Part of the reason I don't just drop it right now.

D

And again, back to that tension between trying to act, conservative.

D

Conservatively and handcuffing you in your ability to make decisions, if I felt.

D

With greater certainty that it won't be more than six and a half percent, I would.

D

Be arguing for that now, but I don't have that level of certainty. So each of these.

D

Assessments is phased in over three years. You go down to the bottom. We blend.

D

The impact of the last three assessments- and this is also weighted by group.

D

Because group, one actually is 42 percent of your total accessible base. The other.

D

Two groups are each 29 percent, so what happens in south carroll has a bigger.

D

Impact good or bad than the other two groups do then. I said your proper tax.

D

Revenue is driven by what happened to reassessments and new construction in.

D

Here the top row is the bottom row, the last slide, the total they, the blended.

D

Impact of your reassessments and then below we've added in new construction on.

D

Top of that, so the 2.3 one and 20 is actually three.

D

Percent, when you consider new construction in fiscal year, 25 the.

D

Projected reassessment of 2.4 will grow to 2.8, for including new construction.

D

This is commercial and residential, yes, and actually about 3/4 of that is.

D

Residential, even at the relatively low level of growth we have now the biggest.

D

Part of our new construction is still residential and it's an important point.

D

As I get asked a lot about, yeah, well we're having some good commercial.

D

Industrial successes all right: what's that doing to the budget and clearly it.

D

Helps but it doesn't help as much as quickly as people expect, and you know if.

D

You think about a forty million dollar project, which, in carroll county, is a big.

D

Project you go to howard county. Forty to forty million is not.

D

Catches their attention, but for us this is this is good. A 40 million dollar.

D

Project generates 400 thousand a year in property tax and that that's important.

D

But 400 thousand a year doesn't fundamentally change the picture for us.

D

We'd need a lot of 40 million dollar projects to say. Okay, we've got a lot of.

A

Money coming in, we can do some things differently. Okay, so back to that history.

D

But now we've also added projections into the future and if you look at that.

D

Blue property tax line- you see it's growing, but not very much. That's because.

D

You know it's even six years out we're talking about less than 3% growth in our.

D

Largest revenue, now you see back in around 2000.

D

So we've bracketed a few years there and said over that period, a relatively.

D

Stable time that grew six point, one percent, if you look at where we've been.

D

Recently, getting to be a more stable time, you also see we grew 6.1 percent.

D

What I'm gonna say to you, though, is 6.1 percent then, and 6.1 percent now aren't.

D

The same thing, and at least two reasons why it's not impacting us the same way.

D

First back in that earlier time we had a 10 percent homestead tax credit. Instead.

D

Of a 5 percent, we were still riding off of some old assessments at that time.

D

That were helping to supplement what was actually being collected in real time.

D

And the other thing was new construction back then, was huge compared to what.

D

We're doing now we're doing about 300 homes a year back, then we were doing a.

D

Thousand twelve hundred fourteen hundred units, when I talk about adding new.

D

Constructions and reassessment, if I had done that chart back then you would have.

D

Seen a much bigger change than a couple tenths of a percent, so we're growing in a way that's somewhat comparable, but your.

D

Property tax revenue is not growing in a way. That's comfortable.

D

So total real property tax in 18 we finished with about 80 187 million, we're.

D

Looking at get close to 192 million this year and we're budgeting 198 for fiscal.

D

Year 20, this is after we account for those changes for property tax. That goes.

D

Into stormwater fund and into act press, this is what you actually will have.

D

Available to you to make your decisions.

D

If the top row is the forecast, as we see it now, the second row is the forecast, as.

D

It is in your existing plan and then the bottom is the difference which, in this.

D

Case is less money coming in than we thought this time last year and again.

D

The the thing that the biggest thing that changed, those numbers is the south.

D

Carroll reassessment and then our expectation for what that means for the.

D

Next, south carroll reassessment: it's not critical that you take in all these.

D

Numbers just want to understand this. There's a number of pieces to us.

D

Figuring out property tax, yeah you've got the big base. Then you have your new.

D

Construction and you have the impacted reassessment and you have to take out.

D

The impact that homes that tax credit now right now this is not big, it may be.

D

Nice to have four hundred thousand, but there have been times when the homestead.

D

Tax credit was taking tens of millions of dollars off the table for us other.

D

Credits, we have some some credits. We offer businesses total up to about.

D

$300,000 a year and then other adjustments, those other adjustments.

D

Penalties so yeah something might come out of kind of a appeals or late.

D

Payments, you know, an appeals is another variable for us. Sometimes we see money.

D

In our assessment base, but somebody appeals it successfully and it drops.

D

Back out of our accessible base, so all that adds up to this 203 million to 234.

D

Million you see on the bottom line: income tax, our second largest revenue.

D

This chart is our quarterly distributions. This is about 90% of all.

D

The money- and we see it in it's- not quite this simple, but for talking.

D

Purposes for distributions a year, you can see how this bounces around yeah.

D

You've heard me say many times: this is volatile very hard to project and.

D

Anybody who tells me they can draw a line through these things and find the.

D

Trend is kidding themselves. The the green bars marked the last three.

D

Fourth-Quarter distributions, that's the last distribution we just got and when.

D

We get at the end of february, what's really important about that distribution.

D

Is it's the last thing we see until after you've made all your decisions? We.

D

Still have about half of our income tax to collect so we're trying to tell you.

D

What to build your budget on having seen half of a volatile revenue, and you can.

D

See even with this, this fourth quarter distribution two years ago, it was a.

D

Little bit negative last year it was more than nine percent this year.

D

It was negative, yeah negative, three point: five percent.

D

You know what do you do with that, and I really it is rhetoric who I don't expect.

D

You to have an answer it answer for me. All I can say is yeah. We do. We do our.

D

Best to try and figure out what are we gonna do with this now, there's last.

D

Quarterly distribution. We were, we only know this for the state. We don't know it.

D

For carroll county, but estimated payments we're down almost 35 percent is.

D

A huge change yeah- this is almost certainly taxpayer behavior because of.

D

Changes in federal tax tax law and we've been dealing with this ever since the.

D

Last presidential election with expectations of change.

D

In federal tax and then the actual changes in federal tax- and we don't.

D

Believe and thinking this is true at the state level, yet as well that we we have.

D

Not seen the impact of the federal tax changes so that could still be out there.

D

And one of the reasons why I tell you, I can't tell you we're not gonna do better.

D

Than we're suggesting you know these, the federal tax changes and what's gonna.

D

Mean to income tax for us could still lead to an influx of money that we're.

D

Not planning here I don't know that, though, and I can't again, I can't tell.

D

You with confidence, don't worry about this picture. Money is.

D

Coming so eighteen we're having about 142 million, then I get close to 149 this.

D

Year we think, but again I would not be shocked if this came in millions of.

D

Dollars lower than that number or that came in made of dollars higher than that.

D

Number, we still have half of our revenue to collect and we're forecasting almost.

D

153 for fiscal year, twenty.

D

Same kind of comparison for income tax top row is where we see ourselves now.

D

Bottom row is where we were in your existing plan and the difference, and you.

D

Can see this, this is a killer. I mean this. This is change that we can't easily.

D

Offset- and I really wish we knew where we were gonna end this year. You know if.

D

If the quite possible better picture emerges that changes this significantly.

D

Could changes significantly and and a lot of this is about what base will be.

D

Working off of you know if we come in to 2.3 million dollars better, this bottom.

D

Line changes yeah and then, in addition to everything else, I just saying we did.

D

Back off of our growth assumptions, this is another one where I think you know.

A

This has been evolving and gotten to a point now I think we did say we need to.

D

Look at it differently. Historically, we felt comfortable with an idea that 6%.

D

Growth and income tax over time was comfortable. Now it was always a problem.

D

In that 6% growth didn't mean 6% a year. You know it meant four percent. Eight.

D

Percent three percent five 5%, but over time that felt comfortable, we backed off.

D

Of that, in more recent years to an expectation about 5% and even when we.

D

Were going through some of the bad years that seemed to be holding up, and this is.

D

One of the things that's made it so hard to get comfortable with what to think.

D

About income tax we're beyond those really bad years, but what we're.

D

Experiencing now seems to tell us, we can't even count on 5% a year that for.

D

Something seems to be a more reasonable expectation, and it just doesn't feel.

D

Right, you know, you know the autonomy for all its quirks is doing well we're we're.

D

Nearly fully employed, you know we're attracting jobs here.

D

It just seems like income tax ought to look better than that. It does, but the.

D

Numbers aren't showing up here, and you know when I thought about 6%. We backed.

D

Off to 5% 5% was good, even in our worst years. Things are pretty good out there.

D

How can that not still be good, but everything we talked about? We kept.

D

Coming back to we don't see it, we don't, we don't see how we can walk into the.

D

Commissioners and say count on 5%. I can't I can't show you why I would.

D

Believe that recordation tax, now we dropped way off now, and the importance.

D

Of this revenue, property tax and income tax are close to 90 percent of your.

D

Revenues, so that's where the real ball game is but again because we have so.

D

Little flexibility because everything is so close, even a relatively small revenue.

D

Still matters, this is a graph of the activity of recordation transactions and.

D

The average amount of those transactions, the pink line, is transaction transition.

D

And transaction activity- and you can see we're on a pretty long road downward.

D

Some of that is because we're not building as many homes as we once once.

D

Did some of it is because we don't have as many people moving into carroll.

D

County, so you can look at some things, but I can't tell you that I know exactly.

D

How to explain it, and at one point it looked like. Maybe we were leveling off.

D

Which, given the level of building activity, would seem to make sense, but.

D

Now we're seeing two years of dropping a 19 number is based on year to date,.

D

Information extrapolated to the end that could change. We have had years with.

D

Recordation with the last couple months, we saw a lot of activity this past year.

D

Didn't work that way at all now, transaction values are climbing over.

D

Time, which is to be expected, houses are still gaining value in carroll county, so.

D

With with recordation bar code, I'm going to show you a graph in a second. Let me.

D

Hold off on that thought, so 18 we had an actual thirteen point. Eight nineteen.

D

Were forecasting for 2014 point four, which is less than we budgeted and then.

D

Twenty were forecasting fourteen point, seven, so here's some history of.

D

Recordation and if we've gone further back, you've seen a period where we were.

D

Kind of hovering around nine ten eleven million dollars of recordation, then we.

D

Hit the boom times, we went up to twenty three million dollars in one year and on.

D

The way to twenty three, we had lots of debates about. Well, how far is this gonna.

D

Go, I mean, how big can this get and it went further than we expected.

D

One good thing back, then, is we recognized? This is not sustainable. We're.

D

Not gonna hit we're not gonna, get up here and stay here for four years, so we.

D

Were never counting on all that money staying in and there were actually three.

D

Years wasn't just about recordation, but we had two really strong record revenue.

D

Growth, we actually pushed seventy five million dollars over three years out of.

D

The operating fund that budget it into capital to get things done in capital.

D

Where you're gonna pay for it, and then you didn't have to pay for it again.

D

Instead of leaving in the operating budget where you, if you had a position.

D

They're taking on services when that money went away, we've been struggling to.

D

Figure out what what to do- and we don't have any more- that's 75 million no.

D

That's: okay, okay, but then the boom-bust and we.

D

Started dropping so again, we were in this. How far can this this go, and we.

D

Went down to less than eight million dollars, we dropped from twenty three.

D

Million dollars to less than eight million dollars over five five years.

D

Yeah, that's big change! That's a lot of money taking off the table for you to be.

D

Making decisions with and yeah and I've talked about this.

D

Other times I didn't bring this all here today, but when you look at the change in.

D

Revenue from the high points to where we, the low points where we are today.

D

There's a lot of money, that's been taken off of the table and one of the.

D

Struggles for us is we never really made decisions on reducing levels of service.

D

We've been forced into a couple every time, but we didn't say you know what.

D

There's not as much money we're gonna have to stop doing something or start.

D

Doing less of something which, and when I talk about my concerns about maintaining.

D

Levels of service- and you know stress- on the workforce providing those yeah.

D

That's why I'm talking about that so now we start seeing it climbing again so now.

D

The question again becomes: how far will this go and in the current plan we had.

D

It rising to about 17 million dollars at the end of the plan. We no longer believe.

D

That that's going going to happen when we look at the actual information we.

D

Ended up with the end of last year and looked at what's really happening. This.

D

Year, it's hard to make a case that that that makes sense.

D

A year ago I felt okay with it. Now I don't feel like I can. I can.

D

That argument, that's not to say we're, not gonna get to 17 million someday or.

D

Even by the end of this plan, you know if we were to see you know, housing starts.

D

Picked up by a hundred units a year, you know that's gonna change. This picture.

D

But right now I don't have any reason to tell you to expect that so recordation.

D

Current expectations, fourteen seven grow into fifteen six second row is where you.

D

Are you're at sixty plan and you see the change investment income pink line is.

D

What we're actually earning blue line is average rates of interest. You know.

D

Before the recession we had never in any history I had, we had never been below.

D

Three percent in in our return now we spent the decade below three percent and.

D

We're starting to climb out of that that now how far this goes, how fast is is.

D

Still a bit of a guessing game: yeah we follow what the fed does. We follow.

D

Actual interest rates we are able to invest in you know the fed can change a.

D

Number, but we still have to be able to put the money somewhere that gets that.

D

Number so this is rising. We've backed off a bit from our expectations, though,.

D

Over time, what are our investment vehicles? What are we invested in by ball?.

D

We we have very few choices, and there there are all conservative. A lot goes.

D

Into a government pool we can, we can get cds, municipal, bonds and stuff like that.

C

Ever I don't know if we can buy mutual own bonds are definitely, but you could.

D

Have rob come in sometime to talk more deeply about how.

D

We invest, I wouldn't be interested in seeing that it's an actual 18 1.5.

D

Forecast at 3.2 now here you're saying that the market is changing actually a.

D

More than 200% increase in that year and then continuing to increase more.

D

Modestly, for fiscal year, 20 that you've seen not as big an impact but still a.

D

Little bit of a negative impact to our total picture building permits. This is.

D

Not a big dollar item we're talking about about half a million dollars now.

D

But it's just tied to other things we think about in terms of how are we doing.

D

That I think it's still worth talking about here's some history now, if we went.

D

Back further here, I think there was one year we actually may be exceeded. 1700.

D

Units we've dropped off and we're bouncing around 300 units. There's.

A

Nothing nothing happening. That gives me any reason to sell. You expect this to.

D

Start changing in some significant way. It could but nothing nothing that we.

D

Have to work with, and you know there are some fundamental changes from those boom.

D

Years that probably will keep us from ever looking anything like that. Even if.

D

We do start to do do more units. First, our population growth has slowed. Second.

D

There are environmental regulations now didn't exist back then that make it a.

D

Lot harder to build outside of public utilities and, for the most part, our.

D

Towns aren't looking to grow a lot, so so so this includes our towns. Yes,.

F

So the warfield project, 145 town homes, that are being built right now or years.

F

Ago, when rain cliff town homes were built, it was a significant number.

F

Is that including to this or we we do not try to project new developments.

D

Coming on now, as as they come on, they get caught up in our new construction.

D

Than eventually into our cessful base, well they're being built now the 145 I'm.

F

They're breaking ground there, yeah, but but until other, and so there are the tax.

D

Rolls they've got okay, so this is the new product went on tax rolls it's well.

D

This well, this is just permits here, but what we're thinking about revenue we're.

D

Not trying to project revenue until they actually hit this, so why wouldn't they.

F

Be we've done this as far as permits, they are I'm just saying, I'm torn it's a.

D

Distinction between your permits and oh okay, so yeah as permits, are issued.

D

Permit revenue is coming in but again permit revenue is just fine here, but I'm.

F

Just saying mmm you know those are being built now down in south county or are.

F

They reflected into these numbers. The apartments are being drawn. Yes, okay,.

D

Here's commercial industrial permit it bounces around, but I would say, is.

D

Relatively stable over time, this is a little less useful in thinking about.

D

Revenue implications than building permits because with houses we know in a.

D

Pretty tight range, what most houses are gonna be built for commercial, industrial.

D

Permits you know it could be a million-dollar project, it could be a.

D

Forty million dollar project, the just number of permits- doesn't tell you as.

D

Much so actual 5:07 we're looking for 560 this year. We add an extra 5,000.

D

B

Don't don't spend it all in one place.

D

Basically standstill now, let's look at looking ahead to what your next.

D

Operating plan, the one you will be adopting will look like when it goes.

D

Through some of the assumptions now, there are literally hundreds of.

D

Assumptions built into the operating plan, most of them very small- we're not.

D

Gonna, try and touch on all those just want to hit on some of some interests or.

D

Of particular significance: carroll county public schools, the last board had.

D

Built specific numbers dollar amounts into certain years for school funding up.

D

Until up through 22, the numbers the commissioners gave us are still the.

D

Numbers that are there in 23 and 20 are in 24 and 25. We've built in the same.

D

Three percent assumption that is, standards for everything that doesn't.

D

Have something specific now, whether that's where you want to stay or not,.

D

Is something you'll have to talk about, but that's that's. What we've done now is.

D

That right, there's 20 more for 23 through 25. Is it three percent 23 24 25.

D

We have a salary assumption of 3% a year built into the plan, with the exception.

D

Of this sheriff, where we have 4% builder.

D

There's a general assumption where there isn't some more specific assumption that.

D

Gets considered first, that expenditures will grow. 3% want to make a point here.

D

Because sometimes people will take the wrong message from that we're building.

D

In three percent growth to build a plan to say what do we think might reasonably.

D

Have to cover that doesn't mean that all those three percents are gonna happen.

D

And in fact, when we come back to you, it's a recommended budget you'll see that there are many budgets that are increasing less than 3%. So it's a.

D

Starting point, but it's not a given and on that point yes worth mentioning.

D

Questions come up sometimes for people in the in the public, even though we have.

D

A six-year plan every year when we take on the budget, we are evaluating every.

D

Budget and all the lines in every one of those budgets and say: does this still.

D

Still make sense, is this still where we need to go? Can we afford to do this made.

D

A lot of what they spend months doing is working their way with the agencies.

D

Through all these, these numbers trying to figure out what is accomplishable.

D

Within the money we have and to the best extent we can making sure people have.

D

The money that they need to do the things that you're expecting them to go.

D

Out and then do and in many cases we will put less in that was planned. But.

D

It's also important to understand. There are times where the budget will be.

D

Saying, okay, you have this flat or you even decrease this. How is that going to.

D

Work, it seems like this is actually gonna need more money, so there are places where we will put in money that wasn't requested where it seems to fit.

D

What's actually happening these assumptions, both one-time funding along.

F

With sustainable funds, yes, okay, the fact, if you, if you dug into the guts of our.

D

Plan, and in this this is massive- I can't even.

D

Guess how many cells of information are in all this, but you know say we were.

D

Buying survey equipment in fiscal year, twenty four twenty thousand dollars in.

D

Fiscal year, twenty three: you would see that twenty thousand dollars coming back.

D

Out again so- and this is true even sometimes expenditures of hundreds of.

D

Dollars there's some places where we have to buy code books or something once.

D

Every three years- and this might not be the right number, but we would put in.

D

Five hundred dollars in one year back it out for two years and then put it back.

D

In for the third year, but all because we're getting into the opportunist.

F

Sumption these assumptions are both sustainable funding. I think everything.

D

Line geling here is probably ongoing stuff, but they're absolutely are.

D

One-Time sessions, detention center, we have growing a little bit faster than.

D

Our general assumption that's come first, their it. Their costs are partially drove.

D

By the size of the population and they're also subject to prescription.

D

Costs, you know the number of people, but the people you have sometimes drives.

D

Their costs a little bit more than what we're seeing in other places.

D

Intergovernmental, this is the money that you share with the towns. This is growing.

D

Two percent a year you'll be hearing more about this later, when we start.

D

Coming to you with the with the agreements with the towns, but this is.

D

Largely driven by inflation and population, the total pot is driven by.

D

Inflation and population population isn't growing very fast and inflation.

D

Isn't growing fast, so this this pot is not really fast.

D

Debt service is tied to the bonds that we've already sold and to the bonds that.

D

We intended to sell, of course, over time what we intend to sell will almost.

D

Certainly change so this is what we know for right now. This always why, when we.

D

Talk about bond authorization and bond issues. Why I'm always making the.

D

Argument to commissioners, if you don't want to issue the debt, then don't build.

D

It into your your capital plan, that's where the choice real. It really is once.

D

You've said we want this project to happen and we're going to fund it with bonds. The rest of it is just just process the assumed use of of surplus. We.

D

Assume every year there'll be 1% left over we've built it in more or less as a.

D

Revenue, this is the place. That's talking about a little bit earlier. I would like.

J

To I would like to get a way from doing this in the current environment, it's.

D

Hard to see how we would do it if it when we get to it, it probably will have.

D

To happen over a number of years, so it's not a sudden four million dollar shock.

D

To our ability to balance the book, the budget, although you know if we were to.

D

Get back to a couple strong revenue, growth years. There would be an argument.

D

Maybe if we have four million dollars we weren't planning on it could be a chance.

D

To get out of this entirely, all at once without hurting anything else, reserve.

D

For contingencies, we've budgeted at one percent of revenue reminder again for.

D

The new commissioners: this is money we budget every year, it's appropriated, it's.

D

Available for use, it's not tied to any intended use this. This is your during.

D

The year flexibility to deal with things that you hadn't.

D

To do the biggest use of this is bad snow years. In most years, the reserve for.

D

Contingency will largely remain unspent during the year, but all kind of things.

D

That come up, you know something came in more expensive than expected. You approve.

D

A position during the middle of the year, there's a unexpected grant that you want.

D

To provide a match, for you, know it's just and anywhere we hadn't planned for.

D

It this is your place to go nonprofit service providers again back in fiscal.

D

Year, 17 the board decided on different growth numbers for different non service.

D

Providers, this is something I think you might want to reconsider. Maybe and maybe.

D

You land exactly where you are, but I think it's worth some some discussion is.

D

This how he wants it to plan, and particularly, I said when the number of.

J

Them has become a pretty regular thing to do something different than what was.

D

Planned for right now we have, I think a couple of them are three or four percent.

E

Yeah a couple one or two with stuff of that sort yeah, so we wanted to put them.

E

All at the same percentage, I'm not gonna, say all right. No, but I but that's.

E

Something I would like to see happen. It would put them on the same percentage. I think if it's a three or four, I think they all should be right about that. That rate, because I can't my mind justify giving one of them four percent another.

E

One one percent yeah just put that into the figures, for when we put it out there.

E

Yes, we can, we can have available the impact for you yeah. I am all about.

C

Reviewing that and developing some sort of methodology as a why certain ones.

C

Could text some mail? You know going down to how many people to actually service.

C

I'm not on board with the exact percentage of what everyone should get.

C

About things should go back to how many people there are servicing.

C

We have to develop some sort of formula how we service, potentially and more.

C

Money, you need you yeah. Well, you'd get our money, but it's a percentage of the.

E

Increase where we talk about here, I got so h: sp gets more money than mosaic or.

E

Whatever it could put their large org so their percentage, but what I'm saying is.

E

If you get thirty thousand a year, and why do you get one percent increases up.

E

At the four percent which someone else gets, that's what I'm saying.

E

We already haven't broken down to different agencies, give difference about.

E

A different amount of money, according to the population and the services that.

E

They provide that yeah. I think I think there's two two conversations here. One.

D

Is at what level do you want to fund them? The other is on what basis do we.

D

Want to decide that on the second one I would suggest from the comments you've.

D

Made that we look to schedule a session before you get into your proposed budget.

D

To talk about, how do we want to go about doing this so you're not trying to do.

D

That, at the same time as you're, trying to figure out what the birdies gonna be that's correct because I'm not convinced they should be funded every year or the.

F

Percentages of increase, so we need to have those conversations yep just in.

D

This short conversation, we can see things going different, different directions. I see good copious that was being taken, yeah, yeah and they're, taking.

D

Those too and when we go through these sessions, we are trying to capture best.

D

We can things that sound like. Maybe somebody wants to go there or doesn't.

D

Want to go there, we want this information. We hope this informations available well keep to this discussion. It is very not even preliminary. I mean.

F

The storing discussion is you sharing with us.

F

Those are funds are discretionary. Those are funds that, yes, you do have that.

F

These flexibilities to look at and highlight that, like.

F

You're doing now so I appreciate that, because there are things, as you know,.

F

That there they will be what they are. Yes, okay,.

A

What the ag press program two and a quarter percent of your real property.

D

Tax revenue goes to fund ag pres, then there's also a million dollars a year of.

D

Bonds, that's the match for the mouth program that is separate from this now.

D

In your current plan, the last board made some adjustments to that revenue stream.

D

To act pres so at fiscal year 20 as things stand, it would be 2.25 percent.

D

Minus five hundred thousand dollars same thing in twenty one and then twenty two.

D

Of you, two hundred fifty thousand dollars that was done as part of.

D

Balancing that the plan board of elections five percent a year, we don't.

D

Control these costs- if I can't tell you it's gonna- be five percent every year.

D

But this just feels more accurate than building them into the basic three.

D

Percent assumption well, there's some significant legislation out there yeah.

F

You know it may cause us to have to fund more. Yes, absolutely.

F

Unfortunately, but is what it is, and you know it going back to some of the.

D

Earlier things we said, you know this idea of ordered elections at 5%. You know.

D

What we're trying to do with all these things is make the picture as real as we.

D

Can with the information we have so when you're making decisions to say we want.

D

To make sure all six years are balanced that we're not leaving out something.

D

That would either make it harder or make it easier. You know that you're dealing.

D

With what we really think, the implications are.

D

Your pension costs are based on your salaries, so we move from one to the.

D

Other you change salaries that changes pensions reserve for potato, but for.

D

Positions it's two hundred thousand dollars a year. Now the actual amount is.

D

More than that, because it grows over time just like the cost of with salaries.

D

But the underlying idea was, you know two thousand dollars worth of room. Do we do.

E

We still have that full $200,000 in this coming budget, because I yes, it's.

D

Actually about two hundred and thirty thousand okay, because that wasn't sure.

D

Where they took some of that away from yeah last, we were just talk about that.

D

Just this morning that was actually in 18. You used some of the 19 money, so we.

D

Were more restricted in this year's budget, so we had two or three thousand.

E

Right now, okay, our risk management costs would go out five percent again. This is.

D

Just a general assessment that what we're gonna see in growth isn't really.

D

In step with our general three percent assumption and then, as I mentioned.

D

Earlier various other many other smaller specific assumptions, things that we know.

D

Right now that increased costs for your current plan and there's really very.

D

Little debt service is going up in some years in your plan, and it's really just.

D

About timing of some projects and when the bonds are gonna be sold the at the.

D

End of the plan, it's still the same as as it was board of education, debt.

D

Service is up career and tech, primarily, but that's offset on your bottom line by.

D

Revenue, we dedicate nine point: zero. Nine percent of your income tax to the school.

D

Construction program and we take on debt service, we transfer some of that money.

D

From the capital fund to the operating budget, so that's that's a wash for your.

D

Bottom but debt service on big for a tech.

E

Center, that's, I believe, since you already built that in that's not taking.

E

Away from other projects that could be done, what I'm saying is they think you.

E

Still do roos and hvac so forth. That's not effective news right. It hasn't.

D

Changed great okay: there is still for the school.

D

Construction program and and how we fund that there is still capacity to take on.

D

Additional projects, some number of small projects, or maybe a large project, oops.

D

And these these next are really not big at all. But the point is there: wasn't.

D

Very much that changed your expenditure position negatively. So you know it was.

D

Sixty five thousand, I think, to match a grant for the state cetera. There were.

D

Some ongoing costs for our new website.

D

And then better in transit you actually just approved that increase a couple.

D

Weeks ago- and we should have a discussion on that before we get into.

E

The budget about how we want to lay that out and for it in the future, because we.

E

Did give over to $30,000 increase something of that sort to forty a 3040.

E

Thousand increase right, let's bring it down, but now for two thousand every, but.

E

We have to look at where we want that to go what we plan to do with that. I think we should have that discussion before we get into the budget. All yeah in terms of.

E

The budget process that would be very helpful, just trying to be helpful.

E

You know things that right now we know put your expenditure side in a better.

D

Position, fuel and utilities when we build in our assumptions, we have fuel.

D

And utility cost growing over time they, the percent growth, gets higher with.

D

Every year, because there's greater uncertainty with with every year.

D

Fortunately, we've been having good experience in recent years, so we were.

D

Able to back down a fiscal year 20 from what we had assumed and it could be.

D

Tempting to say, let's lower those growth percentages, the danger is these things.

D

Can change, and not necessarily with into any warning you know we plan that way so.

D

That you're not scrambling two years from now to figure out okay. How are we gonna pay for these increased fuel costs and it's easy to forget, but there was a.

D

Time when gas costs were high enough, we were actually planning for $4 gas. We're.

D

No longer up that high, but you know things change.

D

Let the service award program, we added a million dollars one time in fiscal year.

D

19 and then we have funding ramping up it's increasing every year in the plan.

D

And the hope is that that's going to get us in the vicinity of what we need on an.

D

Average annual basis to be where we need to be draw your attention to the third.

D

Bullet to say, pay no attention to this because it shouldn't still be there say.

B

Where are the three things I got rid of the three things our next.

D

Actuarial valuation we should have early january, so with actual experience with.

D

Investment experience with the adding this million dollars. We should have a.

D

Better picture of where we are it almost certainly will be better than where it.

D

Was as of the last valuation just don't know yet, is it better or okay, we're in.

D

Good shape- or you know it used to be three. I think they're looking at two.

D

Okay, I was just curious okay, so this captures those no changes that we've.

D

Already built into what would be your next plan, you say it: it helps a little.

D

Bit now, when I say known changes, we are.

D

Still working on an expenditure side and there are still things that might.

D

Improve the picture, I don't want to give you any hope that there are enough.

D

Changes remaining to make that revenue picture go away, though,.

D

We talk about debt service, a significant expenditure work for us.

D

Yeah it's about 10 percent of our budget. When you look at all these things, we.

D

Have counting debt service the top line school debt service is? Is there a.

E

Possibility of pain down less on the on the debts, give us additional money for.

E

This year next year and so forth, in other words, we paid out a significant.

E

Amount of our bonds in the last safe five six years- I don't can't remember.

E

How much but quite a bit is there it can we if we pay down less, would I give us.

E

An extra couple million dollars to work with we don't have any option to pay pay.

D

Less okay, this we we've brought down the outstanding debt and debt service by.

D

Issuing less so, we've just been doing less okay, but the the amortization.

D

Schedules are what they are. We know a date and a dollar amount. Okay, I thought.

E

We were paying off quicker than what we had to, however, not remember. Well, we.

D

Don't own the schools, we own the debt service, but the bonus yeah. This is like.

C

A bad marriage: this is again any increase in debt.

D

Service for schools is offset by the use of that dedicated income tax, so this.

D

Doesn't hurt your bottom line aggghhhhh prez? This is where we are doing an.

D

Easement through the installment purchase agreement and taking on a.

D

20-Year commitment stormwater this goes into that special fund, but when we issue.

D

Debt for stormwater ponds- that's what this debt service is about. They totally.

E

Do have any additional money in that fund now we all we balance it. Bounces.

E

Every year, okay, I'm just looking for additional money somewhere.

D

We've been looking to god, so you see the total projected debt service. As we see.

D

It now against, what's in your current plan, and you see, there's there's a a bit.

D

More now than there was then, but most of that is offset by the revenue so where.

D

Does that leave us.

D

This is the existing plan you can see, it was just barely balanced, exactly.

D

Balanced in each of the first well in the second third and fourth years of the.

D

Plan an extra $300,000 in each of the last two years for any practical.

D

Purposes we're exactly balanced for the entire plan. The good thing is, I mean it.

D

Is balanced? We did what we needed to do to say. We believe we will have enough.

D

Revenue to cover the expenditures we've committed to the value and that doesn't.

D

Go away, the the bad part is no flexibility. If something happens, we.

D

Didn't plan, for we have no room to deal with it, which is exactly what I'm saying.

D

We are now the revenues are not going to be sufficient to make this existing plan.

D

Work, instead of just fairly balanced, we're going to be unbalanced, yeah and be.

D

Before before I go there just a conceptual idea yet yeah. This idea of.

D

Balancing multi-year plan we're still fairly unusual, we're not unique, but.

D

We're still fairly unusual many jurisdictions do one of two things they.

D

Balance their budget year by year and, however bad this picture looks now. I.

D

Feel very certain if we have been budgeting or if we have been balancing a.

D

Year by year, our position right now would be even scarier than it is. We.

D

Would have committed to ward's more expenditures, then we have a lot of.

D

Things can go wrong when you balance here by year, sometimes with intent.

D

Sometimes, just because you don't see it and there are jurisdictions that have.

D

Multi year plans, but they don't balance them, they look out and say well what.

D

Does this look like, but they don't react to the picture like I saw them at the.

D

State budget earlier I mean they, they adopted a budget knowing that the.

D

Decisions they were making now were not supportable by the rev.

D

That they believe they were gonna have as much as I don't like. The idea of.

D

Balancing year by year, I really don't like the idea of an unbalanced.

D

Multi-Year plan, it seems, like you know, you look at it. You say we know this doesn't work, but okay, we'll figure it out later.

D

So there me know. I was just to uh provide an opinion on this. The success.

F

Of this is the due diligence, that's been, provided you know by you by the county.

F

And putting the resource out came resources and and and getting it.

F

Balanced this far out, the concern is, as we continue to do this. I think the.

F

Success is gonna, be tied to having very well-established vision on the different.

F

Programs that we want to achieve so we're not having these ad hoc.

F

Conversations and how to fund something like the forty thousand dollar increase.

F

To the shuttle service but for the shuttle service- and I absolutely agree.

F

With the commissioner frasier is that we need vision on what we want, that shuttle.

F

Service to accomplish, therefore, we'll know this is going to be the cost of.

F

That shuttle service same thing with that reservation and all of the very.

F

Large line items that we have in order to continue moving forward in a.

F

Multi-Year budget, you know that we're doing that. That is something that movies.

F

Just sharing with you pushing very hard for to establishing a very clear vision.

F

On what we want to achieve, because then once we do, that we'll know whether we're.

F

Succeeding it or not, because right now, if we don't have that clear vision, I.

F

Cannot say whether the veteran service shuttle service is a success or a.

F

Failure, I believe, 100%, it is a success and I.

F

Think it's a absolute requirement that we're mean, but we need to have that very.

F

Clearly defined and moving forward so great due diligence, great hard work.

F

Where we're at this is actually a good news story, you know to me that we're.

A

Balanced you know. Yes, we don't have the flexibility, but.

F

For the out-years, I think we owe it to our community in our county to have.

F

Vision very clear vision: actually the ag pres is the only one. That's had a vision.

I

Throughout all the years, the only program really, though I think in 1980.

I

They designate what they wanted to see and that's what they bought in ward and.

I

That's what we need for all programs and my comment about infants was not saying.

F

It did not it's just to my mind, that's yeah, I know, but that's just one. That's.

G

You wonder: we've ever had one clear vision for what the importance of having.

F

A vision, goals, objectives associated with the vision will then allow us to.

F

Know whether we're succeeding or failing we're, always in favor of clear vision,.

D

And budget implications make things easier thanks, okay, so that's the plan.

D

That was adopted last may, oh okay, yeah saying so: um there's no getting around.

D

It budgeting with this smooth multi-year balance plan makes your jobs and harder.

D

Balancing one year is so much easier than than balancing six and that's where.

D

The value comes in, you know it's it's harder, because it keeps you from making.

D

Bad decisions, or allowing things to just happen without considering what its.

D

Gonna be as I pull up this next piece, I mean this is not gonna, be nice, nice.

D

Looking and yeah you're gonna start thinking about what are we gonna do and.

D

It would not be hard to imagine starting to think well. This is gonna be hard.

D

Enough without worrying about balancing six years, just balancing next year is.

D

Gonna be hard enough. What if we don't worry about it, we'll think about it.

D

Again next year, of course, that's a choice you can make. I mean there's nothing that requires you to do this. If that thought creeps in.

D

Your mind, though, I would urge you as strongly as I can you know, push it back.

D

Out, even though this will make your jobs harder, I think it puts us in a much.

D

Stronger position to say the decisions were making, however hard they are, are.

D

Decisions we feel comfortable, we can make and say this is sustainable. All.

D

Right so let's pull the band-aid off.

D

Building those revenue changes and a little bit of expenditure changes that.

D

Helped you some this is what the plan looks like now again there. So some.

D

Things we're working on on the expenditure side that might make this.

D

Look better, but it's not gonna make it look good and you know, as as a percent.

D

Of budget, these changes are not that big, a deal you talking about a percent or.

D

Two, you know it, you know it'd be easy to say. Well, we ought to be able to figure.

D

That out, you know, the problem is going back against. The idea of you know lack.

D

Of flexibility, we just we don't have the places to just go and say: okay well,.

D

Let's change this: let's, let's stop this. There are choices you can make, but I.

D

Don't think there are any easy choices out there. You know every every choice.

D

You might make to say here's how we're gonna balance. This is gonna come with.

D

Difficulties so oh yeah, I know what its gonna be saying. This doesn't happen very.

D

Often, but my expectation is when we come to you in a couple weeks with our.

D

Recommended budgets: we are actually going to be bringing you an unbalanced.

D

Operating plan, the reason we're gonna be doing that is, I don't believe, there's.

D

Any way for us to balance this without actual policy decisions, there's no way.

D

To just squeeze here, push here tug there and make make it work. It's going to come.

D

Down to what do we want to do, what do we not want to do? How much do we want to do.

D

Of one thing or an so I don't I don't like the idea. I don't.

D

Want to come with a with an unbalanced plan, but I really think it would be.

D

Inappropriate given where we are for me to balance the plan for you, so this is.

C

Where you make us feel uneasy what I expect. That's already happened, yeah and.

D

We do have exercise not to talk about that unassigned fund balance. This is.

D

Money that you have sitting on the sidelines right now, that's can remain on.

D

The sidelines as flexibility for the future but is available for you to.

D

Choose to use in a budget- this is just a little history of where we are the.

D

Relevant number for you today is that four million dollars all the way to the.

D

Bottom right: that's how much unassigned fund balance you have available to you.

D

Right now, the pressures to use this are going to be tremendous. I just want go.

D

Back to earlier conversation, I had with you all, I think, there's a lot to be said.

D

For us to be building our unassigned fund balance and where we are right now.

D

Is actually a one very good reason for having a larger unassigned fund balance.

D

If we were sitting on 20 million dollars right now, I would feel a lot less.

D

Uncomfortable about where we are today, because we have room to try and deal.

D

With it, while we well, we we see with these last two income tax distributions.

D

Are gonna be what we see hell? The next reassessment comes in, though four.

D

Million dollars isn't enough to buy us time and there will always there will.

D

Always be ears, we're having some money sitting on the side to be able to buy.

D

You time and going back to our earlier assessment of the year-end number we're saying well,.

D

We expect the end 19 with will be about two million dollars, but there's still a.

D

Lot well play out the biggest thing, of course, being income tax aside fund.

D

Balance, this is places where choices have been made to use money from.

D

Previous budgets to balance our operating plan, so there's money from 15.

D

That's assumed to be used in the school year 20 this next budget, a million.

D

Dollars from seventeen there's four point: 1 million dollars in fiscal year.

D

Twenty and from eighteen three point: eight, that's that regular one percent, so.

D

That wasn't a special choice that was just kind of business as usual, but eight.

D

Point nine million dollars of the twenty budget as it stands would be coming from.

D

What was left over in previous years now, we've talked a little bit about this.

D

Idea, you know, we've been doing things in recent years to make the plan work using.

D

Unassigned fund balance over many years, reducing in some years the money going.

D

To it cannot tell the difference truck sure, fund reducing money in some years.

D

To add pres, we do see money in some years to stormwater, probably a few other.

D

Things I had not thinking about in any one of those things by itself would be.

D

An okay thing to do. I have no argument and when we started doing this, that's.

D

Basically, what I said was, you know, might not be the best way to go about it, but.

D

Just doing this by itself isn't the problem, the the the growing problem in.

D

My mind is: this is becoming a part of a an integral part of the the budget.

D

Process- and I think we need to move away from from this.

D

We're starting to depend too much on finding places to take money and there's.

D

Less and less of that money to take anyway, yeah and and it's understandable.

D

You know if you're you're, looking at six years and you're almost balanced, you.

D

Just have a couple spots, you say: well, let's take some money, and here it's just.

D

It's getting more and more complicated, as as we we move on now, one one good.

D

Thing with this is the end of unassigned fund balance that we have assigned to a.

D

Future budget, so 2324 aren't counting on money from the previous year. Okay, in.

D

Case- it's not already etched in your brain. This is back to that bottom line. I.

D

Showed you, pending some more expenditure side changes that we might make. This is.

D

Going to be our starting point, when you sit down to consider 20 through 25, all.

D

Right so as if that isn't enough, there are other things on my mind things I.

D

Think need to be on your minds first up on the list. This slide is the.

D

Really big things as opposed to curving commission. This is gonna, be a big deal.

D

I don't know how big a deal it's gonna be. Don't know the timing of you know.

D

When it's gonna be a big deal but dumb from a fiscal point of view, not.

D

Talking about is this a good thing for schools or not fiscal point of view? This.

D

This is gonna hurt, whatever we're gonna have to do. May you you just saw not only.

D

Is there not money to absorb new costs? The first thing we're gonna have to do.

D

Is figure out how to make up for the money that isn't there now? Just if we.

D

Want to continue doing the things weird today, you know people ask me how we're.

D

Gonna pay for this, and my answer right now is, I don't know fire ems transition.

D

We've taken some steps. We still haven't started spending any new money.

D

There are things are going to need to be figured out money- that's being spent today over here that will be spent over here and isn't the new cost. But there.

D

Will certainly be costs beyond what we're budgeting today. We also need to.

D

Talk about you know the ambulance fee revenue that extra some of that should.

D

Be shifting, which will will help figure out how to pay for some of these things.

D

But I don't have any hope that we won't have to find additional money beyond.

D

What's gonna be available to us same same place, say I'm with currently where.

D

Is that money gonna come from? I don't know the revenue picture we've just.

D

Spent a good bit of time talking about this, this this weighs heavily on my mind,.

D

And you know I wish we had a different picture, but that's the one we've got.

D

School systems asking for 8.9 million dollars.

D

I know people could argue this. I'd say this is not an unreasonable request on.

D

Their part, one problem, though, even if all five you said absolutely, we.

D

Want to fund this request, this by itself is gonna, be more money than you are.

D

Likely to have available for your entire budget, we probably find ourselves to.

D

Fund this would probably mean finding other things where you had to fund less.

D

Money than you plan to this is the total. We pressed a big for timing from us and.

E

The state, although I mean they're, looking for a point I mean I don't think.

E

There, hopefully, I'm not just looking at us for that- that's what I was like. Yes, that remains to be seen right. So yeah we have do you.

D

Do you agree or disagree with what they're asking, but even if you agree, then there's a significant funding question community.

D

College is again looking for more than half a million dollars for salary.

D

Increases they're getting very little from the state. They are not planning to.

D

Increase their tuition, so basically the funding that you are giving them or.

D

They've planned for them is how they've balanced everything other than providing.

D

Salary increases leaving them to say now, commissioners, we need additional money.

D

To give salary increases.

D

Sheriff we'd like to see improvements in his disability program. What that will.

D

Cost us, if you decide to do something, what that will cost us will depend on.

D

Exactly what you decide to do, but we are talking about hundreds of thousands, a.

D

Year of additional costs, how many hundreds of thousands depends on the.

D

Details so every every one of these well revenue picture is really a little.

D

Different one, but every one of these is the potential to add significant cost to.

D

That already unattractive bottom line, the state.

D

Budget, what legislative actions who will emerge.

D

That are gonna have an impact on us. The federal tax changes and state.

D

Legislation, you know when we were talking about the impact to us locally.

D

Last year it was, we were talking about state legislation and what they might do.

D

Now they did pass legislation to somewhat lessen the impact. The positive.

D

Impact of state income tax and by ripple effect, local income tax, so that the.

D

Federal changes didn't lead to increases in state revenue that they hadn't.

D

Actually tried to get, it was relatively modest impact, though, and I was arguing.

D

Against thoughts building into our budget, an assumption that there would be.

D

A big boost from from this revenue, one of the things I argued at the time not.

D

The only thing, but one of the things was well what, if people get really mad and.

D

Start beating on the legislature and they decide to do a second piece of.

D

Legislation to further limit how much income tax benefit they will be.

D

Talking to mako about this time last well, it had been a little bit later, but.

D

You know, after state legislation was passed, you know their position was yeah.

D

It could happen, but we don't see them coming back to this. You know, as people.

D

Are starting to get their refunds? You know the voices are getting louder and.

D

It's still, on my mind that the voices might get loud enough that the.

D

Legislature decides to do something more to limit what the state income tax bump.

D

Will be from this and, of course that would that limit what it's gonna be from.

D

From us, so even now that remains on my mind, you know other reasons why I was.

D

Reluctant to make use of it is, you know, tax law, changes and people get to work.

D

Figuring out, how do I best take advantage of tax laws and I feel very.

D

Certain that you know the accountants out there are working for their.

D

Businesses and people to say how do we put you in the best position to not be.

D

Hurt, or to even take advantage of this and different classes of businesses are.

D

Impacted differently by this federal law, I think there's a lot of incentive for.

D

People to change how their business is set up in in tax law so that they are.

D

Either helped or not hurt like I said, but we we don't think we've really seen.

D

Even if there's money coming, we haven't seen it happening, so it could be that.

D

It's still coming and again that goes back to why I say to you: I'm not gonna.

D

Sit here and tell you there will not be a bump in income tax, it could still.

D

D

The kerbin commission moved to the really big slide, such as they've, been on.

D

The thing just thinking about how big is on suicides.

D

So just schools budget request: we we still have the east middle school.

D

Question and I've said for several several years now- nothing happening.

D

Isn't really an option? We think we need to spend money in that school. We need to.

D

Replace that school or we need to get rid of that that school all those will.

D

Cost something the idea of the k to 8, which would be a replacement for west.

D

For east middle school is not in the plans but still seems to be floating out.

D

There as not dead, either modernizations and systemics. You know we.

D

Have 40 school buildings various ages, but they're all aging, we haven't done a.

D

Full modernization of a school since well, we replaced mount airy middle.

D

School before that, I think you have to go back to modernizing north carroll.

D

Middle school, what we've done is deal with systemics we're still dealing with.

D

That, but we really haven't, I don't think established a clear vision for what is.

D

Our intent into the future for dealing with schools, pre-k part of carwin, be a.

D

Significant expansion of pre-k are, we gonna need space, can't answer that yet.

D

You know the curling commission recommendations say that at least half.

D

Of the services have to be offered by private organizations, will that work out.

D

We'll be more than 50%, how many students are we actually going to end up getting.

D

Where are they? We have room in some schools to deal with this, but not not in.

D

Every school and then proposed new construction funding, the governor is.

D

Trying to set up a parallel school construction process.

D

It would be dealt with by the maryland stadium authority instead of the public.

D

School construction program not replace it but happen at the same time, I'm not.

D

Sure how all that would work, I don't know if it's gonna make it through the legislature or not, but another piece of this is yet part of the governor's.

D

Thinking is a very quick big infusion of funding into schools to to kind of catch.

D

Up on the backlog, if that happens, another problem for us.

D

Is they're not just going to fund these projects they're going to fund their.

D

Share of the projects, it would mean us finding our share of.

D

The projects which in most cases is larger than the state share, if again, if.

D

Asked where's that money to come from, I can say well, I know where a little bit.

D

Is but you know if we're looking for tens of millions of dollars or even.

D

Potentially hundreds of millions of dollars- I don't know where that would come from. I already talked about this, but uncertainty about the highway user.

D

Revenue, you know the talk continues about restoring that local jurisdictions.

D

That'd be nice, I it's a hard for me to imagine how that would happen. I'm more.

D

Concerned about it going away than I am hoping to get more solid waste long-term.

D

Plan yeah this is this is not new yeah. We know we have expenditures that under.

D

The current arrangement, the fund can't-can't, cover a couple years ago, the.

D

Commissioners agreed to barrymore reduce the cost of transfers out and to build.

D

Up some savings there toward some eventual solution with all the rain.

D

We've had and the costs of dealing with the leachate.

D

We have accumulated some money, but far less than we were thinking. We would so.

D

You need to be careful. If you look at solid waste to see say: oh they've got.

D

Some money piled up, but it's really kind of masking increased expenditures. Oh yes,.

D

Yeah and and recycling where we one times made one time made money on.

D

Recycling we're now spending lots of money and recycling at more than four.

D

Hundred thousand a year night.

D

So so we save costs and transfer very more in landfill. We did buy a piece of.

D

Equipment to better compaction, so we we don't think we're using up space as.

D

Quickly as we once were, but we are using up space.

D

You know once it's filled, you can't fill it again. We had tremendous increase in.

D

Cost of leachate and tremendous increase in the costs of recycling would you say.

D

A

Are you saying that recycling is costing us money, yes, not good, it's be it pretty.

C

Fiscally fiscally it's bad well, but well you need to be careful if you, if you.

D

Don't recycle, you still have to do something with it.

G

Either you're using a plant fill space or your paint transfer it somewhere else.

D

So from a business standpoint as a county as a business, is it better for us.

C

Not to recycle or to recycle we'd have to think about that and we can. We can.

D

Try and work through that I don't feel comfortable answering it right off the.

D

Top just want it, don't don't want to lose, though I mean we can look at it. A.

D

Few of purely dollars and cents kind of kind of way, but implicitness has has.

D

Always been an idea that that there is some value, not financial value, but value.

D

In recycling, that's that's an idea that the board can debate and reconsider if.

D

You want those, but also mandated to recycle a certain amount. I think it's.

E

Like 34 percent of stuff, like that right now, which is gonna go up in the future.

E

So I felt like we got away with it either and I'll be clear. I don't want to yeah right, that's you, don't you don't have.

A

Total discretion yeah, you probably would have some bookish drawls somewhere. We.

E

Didn't use the westminster library fund raising them yeah, we, we are part of a.

D

Project to build the makerspace in the in the basement of the westminster.

D

Library, this project is heavily dependent on their fundraising efforts.

D

And bringing this up I'm not saying that they're not gonna make it. I'm not saying.

D

Anything negative about their efforts, but just from the very first time this.

D

Came up to today, it's been a concern for me: what happens if they are not.

D

Successful but the fundraising and the answer for me is: they have no place to.

D

Go other than to you, the state is not going to increase what they're gonna do.

D

The money will have already been spent, so I wish them success. I hope they're.

D

Successful but this hasn't gone away as a concern. We know where they are in.

E

Fundraising, I haven't heard anything recently. We can check for where they.

D

Aren't the artificial turf field we have almost $500,000 in our hands, we're.

D

Hoping for money from from the state if the state comes through with money, but.

D

Not $500,000 of money that we might find ourselves in a position where we have to.

D

Come up with money we haven't planned on next-gen, not know that. That's not true.

F

Statement, the agreement or what we decided as a commission was to provide.

F

That $500,000, if there's the match from the state $500,000, is not, there was.

F

Never any discussion on increasing any funding, above and beyond that $500,000.

F

In the county now I do not believe there's an appetite to do that either so.

F

It is, it is that $500,000 would be allocated if $500,000 from the state or.

F

Regardless wherever was provide, and then we would execute that money if.

F

Not then that money comes back to us or stays with us, but there's no. I do not.

F

Believe from any discussion I had with with all of us and decision we made was.

F

To go above and beyond that five hundred thousand dollars: okay, that's fine! If it.

D

Works out that way right, I just wonder if the state says well we're not gonna.

D

Give you five hundred we're gonna, give you two hundred and fifty will you.

D

Reject the two hundred and fifty it's not an essay rejecting 250 is the then.

F

Required match would be two hundred and fifty from the county, but we, it would be.

F

The five hundred thousand dollars, and then we would have to come up with not.

F

We, the county but other means of getting the necessary funds. It may not be.

F

Necessary to have a million dollars in may end up being seven hundred thousand.

F

Whatever it may be, but the additional dollar amount is not the county.

F

Government's responsibility to come up with it is other means whether it's fund.

F

Raising the town regardless wherever, but we, I believe.

F

From the discussion we had an agreement was, we would not go above and beyond.

F

That five hundred thousand dollars.

F

And I appreciate honestly, I appreciate everything you're sharing with us with.

F

These with these assumptions, you know, but the key is as you're doing is: what's.

F

On your mind, with these assumptions is once that assumption becomes a fact.

F

Let's make it a fact and move on, but, and so I appreciate you bringing that up, but.

F

That's kind of where, where we're at okay next gen 9 1 1, we talked a little bit.

D

Earlier there will be physically we're in a pretty good position with with 9.

D

And 1, as far as you know the hardware and software we we need to do things.

D

They're almost certainly will be an impact in the number of people we need.

D

Depending on what kind of requirements there are for retaining information.

D

They're almost certainly be impact on servers and our ability to handle the.

D

Information marysville and I'm on one coverage. We built our system, the digital.

D

System, it met the requirements countywide, but there is a there's a.

D

Small area of the county that isn't as well covered is as most places we have.

D

It there's we do not have a project to do something about this project, but.

D

We've requested money from the state. This is another kind of like when I was.

D

Saying with the turf field, although you're saying that's not the case and.

D

This one it we would have to come up with our share of the money to implement.

D

This I I was in the impression that we had a mutual aid agreement with howard.

F

County and west friendship on coverage that is outside our jurisdiction that we.

F

Would be able to cover if necessary, and they have the same responsibility in.

F

Carroll county, through this mutual aid agreement, I mean had the conversation.

F

With this expo fired upon and that's what I was left with, was that that.

F

Mutual aid agreement covers this. This concern provides money. No, no.

F

No, no, no not provides money provides services. Am I talking something.

F

Complicitous, this is about the radio signals. Oh okay, okay. No, I I was. I was.

F

Talking who's that oh okay, yeah, when I don't know what I said reach, no, you know.

D

You took it as different coverage spots, yes right, so so, if the state comes up.

D

With money they're not gonna pay the full cost of doing this. We don't have.

D

Any money planned for this project: okay, low sap- we talked about space issues. We.

D

Still have the north carroll question: what we have right now was direction.

D

That we are holding it for three years and then something was going to happen. I.

D

Forget when that three three years is but right now we're budgeting something.

D

More than a half million dollars a year for that school- and this is really.

D

Important whenever that three year was, we don't have that money budgeted.

D

Anymore, so if we are gonna continue, keeping the school we're gonna have to.

D

Find the money to do that.

D

Sheriff still looking for headquarters, if we do not keep north carroll high.

D

School he's gonna be looking for a home for the training academy, then detention.

D

Center, you know we talked for years at some point, we're going to need a.

D

Detention center there will need to be a detention center. We've also talked at.

D

Different times about variations, that could be part of that. You know a day.

D

Reporting center or minimum security facility and.

D

The whole thing you know as long as this list is this really isn't everything on.

D

The right it's just, we don't want to know fibre enterprise fund, our.

D

Expectations when we started this as an enterprise fund years ago for revenue.

D

Are not being realized at some point. We're gonna have to have some.

D

Conversations about how how we're gonna handle this technology needs and impacts.

D

In general, it's just getting bigger and bigger, and you know it's not because.

D

We're doing silly things or making bad choices. It's just becoming a deeper and.

D

Deeper part of everything that we do.

D

Infrastructure funding- I came to you a week or so ago to start talking about.

D

This I'm not gonna, spend any time on it today, but just thought the whole big.

D

What's it gonna take, and how are we gonna? Do it still out there pressure on.

D

Services, I've mentioned a couple times managing expectations for anybody. Listen.

D

Out there, I hope part of this is tempering expectations, and now I.

D

Understand you know people want to do good jobs, they want the resources to do.

D

A good good job, but it's not gonna, be as simple as saying well, this is a good.

D

Idea, I need the funding our expectations.

F

Along with the community's expectations, yes reduced flexibility, we've talked about a couple times. Where do we go from here in.

D

March we'll be coming back to you on the 26th with our recommended budget. That's.

D

Going to have an unbalanced bottom line in march in april, you will meet with.

D

Agencies they'll be coming in to talk to you about things that are not in the.

D

Recommended budget that they believe they would like you to fund.

D

General assembly ends the 8th of april. Your proposed budget sessions start on.

D

The 9th of april we have maybe 20 to 25 hours.

D

I think 20-some hours setup, sometimes we don't end up needing at all. More often.

D

We run into a situation where we don't have enough enough time at those.

D

Sessions we'll be trying to give you whatever we can to help you work through.

D

Things and a lot of these notes, we're taking, will be information. We want to.

D

Have available for you, so if the conversation goes there we're prepared.

D

For it for the two new commissioners, a really important part of the proposed.

D

Sessions is our ability to do what ifs basically on the fly budget office will.

D

Have a lot of stuff on a computer, so there'll be a lot of things that you say.

D

Well, what if we did this, we will already have it in there. All we need to do is.

D

Paste it in somewhere other things, we might need to construct what you're.

D

Saying deb does a pretty incredible job of.

D

Keeping up with the commissioners and getting stuff on the screen so that you.

D

Can you can see the impact of making this change or that change will have all.

E

The agency issue hearings before we get into our budget session. Yes, one thing.

D

Just to get you think about it, I'll remind you again when we get there, but.

D

As incredible as deb is, she doesn't have unlimited capacity to get everything.

D

Immediately into the computer, so sometimes you have to kind of slow. You.

A

Down a little bit and say, you know, give her a little time to get this get this.

D

In then, the proposed budget, your proposed budget, will be released on.

D

April 30th, the next evening.

D

Two evenings later start five community meetings to share those budget. I go out.

D

To do these meetings, sometimes, commissioners attend sometimes they.

D

Don't there's nothing that requires you to be there, but you can. If you want and.

D

When I go there, what I'm doing is basically telling people what's in the.

D

Budget, what isn't the budget sharing some of the thinking? How did we get.

D

There take some questions and comments. They're generally not very well attended.

D

Sometimes you know we get some people, but most of the time, if I have 10 people.

D

I think that's a lot. We occasionally will get 30 40 people, sometimes there's.

D

Nobody I've done presentations for one personal occasion. You must not be very.

C

Exciting girl, in the crowd, I'm very excited public hearing on the 13th. We.

D

Have time scheduled for adopted work sessions so after you've released your.

D

Proposed budget you've heard public hearing a little bit more time for you.

D

Say is there anything we want to change? We usually don't end up using all the.

D

Adopted time, but we get it on your schedules to make sure there is time.

D

Adoption is on the 28th. The budget has to be adopted by the last day of may and.

D

There isn't a lot of flexibility in the schedule. There are things happening up.

D

To when we start doing these things, there are constraints on when we can end.

D

There there are places in between where there has to be some time. So there's not.

D

A lot of room to work around this, hopefully all this stuff is on your.

D

Schedule, if you're, if you're scheduling other things, please make sure you're.

D

Looking looking at this one of the worst things from my perspective, that happens.

D

Is when we have post session happening and and a commissioner isn't there.

D

Because they had something else on their schedule, I'm always left very.

D

Uncomfortable when, when four people or say okay, let's move.

D

With this, then, the next session comes, and that commissioner said we'll wait. A.

D

Second, when did we talk about that and it never works? Well, so no decisions.

D

Today hope I've, given you some things to think.

D

About as we head for the process and again, if there are thoughts, you have now.

D

That would lead to us gathering information thinking through things you.

D

Just said something I think we could figure that out. I don't know what it was.

D

But we will figure what you cannot be in that exciting yeah can't figure that.

E

Part out all right, that's what I came to do. There are questions or comments. We.

D

Can deal with those now the next time you should bring kickstart and start any.

B

Additional questions, or whatever ted, certainly can reach out to him and the.

D

County, you do a copy. The calendar up there, we're gonna, be jeff between you.

I

Haven't made our morning easy, yeah yeah, it doesn't stop. I know.

A

Result of what the presentation was today yeah, you know don't hesitate to.

B

Reach out, you know my experience, you know with the military department.

F

Defense has program palm years goes out five years, so it works. It's there's.

F

Templates out there, I appreciate you doing this again. Well, we owe more to you.

F

And others is that very clear vision and clear objectives on what those out years.

F

Look like so then we know whether we're hitting them or not, and that's just that.

F

Means the hard work and then taking the budget and understanding where the.

F

Numbers fit so I appreciate it good job for you and the team. Okay, anything else.

B

All right, thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you, ladies for what you made him.

I

Look good alright! Next, on the agenda is request approved for an application.

B

Acceptance of award for the trevannion terrace stormwater management facility.

B

Retrofit design, you're chief, it's gonna, lead this charge. Gail and kelly is with.

B

Gail kelly martin good afternoon, commissioners good afternoon.

J

At the moon, we are here today to ask your approval to go out for a grant.

J

Application and then your if we're lucky enough to receive the award, we also want.

J

To ask for your acceptance to receive that award today for the trevanian terrace stormwater management retrofit and kelly martin is here to explain a.

J

Little bit about the grant: ok, this money would be coming from the chesapeake bay.

K

Trust, green streets, green jobs, green towns, program and I hate when you should.

B

Use the green reminds me that stupid new green deal that they're coming up with.

B

Washington, maybe we could change the color or some blue yeah that'd, be better.

K

So we're requesting $30,000 for the preliminary and final planned design of.

K

Trevanian terrorists or what a management facility it's an existing.

K

Detention basin, that serves eight acres, but there are this room on site to.

K

Expand so we're going to expand it to a serve a drainage area of 188 acres over.

K

50 of which is impervious credit, so those nutrient reductions will.

K

Go to awards meeting the requirements of our national pollutant discharge elimination system. Permit it's in addition to the $30,000.

K

Of this grant request, there is a $35,000 county match, which is the concept plan.

K

Development, which is occurring right now for a total design cost of $65,000.

K

So $35,000 we kind of match one actually cost us anything besides. It would be.

A

Work is being done and we are paying for that. Okay, I polly. You said this is in.

F

Part of a our requirement: yes, what is the total requirement? That's the.

J

National pollution discharge, elimination system, permit requirement and dish goes.

F

Towards that it does yes, okay.

B

Any other questions I know where this is so I'm pretty familiar with it and it's.

B

Interesting me to something it's great. Well, I think the most exciting thing.

J

About us is we bring additional training area into it and make the facility.

J

Larger right and the idea behind it is to incorporate an educational component.

J

Into it, because the school is right next door, so the school could possibly get.

J

Some benefit from the pond as well, and that's the intentions. Yes, that's good.

B

All right, any other comments, I'll make the motion that we approve this. The.

B

Middle the grant application acceptance of the war to the chesapeake trust.

B

Streets, job senator grant program; ok, all second! As long as it's green comments.

B

All those in favor aye any opposed. Thank you very much, so I.

B

Need a motion to recess until 1:00 p.m. so moved, second least: don't everybody.

B

Jump in we're all all in favor all right, we're recessed until 1:00. Thank you.

B

Thank you, sir.