City of Oldsmar, Florida Disaster Prep, 15 Jul 2023

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From YouTube: Experience Oldsmar with the Mayor – Episode 3, Mike Boylan

Description

Experience Oldsmar with the Mayor is a monthly podcast hosted by Oldsmar Mayor Dan Saracki to engage the community on City and regional initiatives, local businesses, events, and projects.

This episode features guest Mike Boylan, Oldsmar resident and owner of Mike’s Weather Page and SpaghettiModels.com.

A

Welcome to the experience Oldsmar podcast I'm, your host mayor, Dan, saraki broadcasting from the top of the bay in beautiful downtown Oldsmar in the old Oldsmar Bank building building my guest today is not only an Oldsmar resident, but his respected worldwide for tracking the tropics. Mike Bolin created his website spaghettymodels.com to provide the public an opportunity to explore weather models throughout the year. He is also the host of Mike's weather, page social media channels. I call him Mr hurricane expert. Thank you for being here. Mike welcome. Thank.

B

You um I'm not sure I'm an expert but I appreciate that that was a nice intro. Well.

A

It means a lot we'll get into that, because I'm going to tell you a couple stories, why you're the expert but I understand you are a Florida native. Where did you.

B

Grow up, I was born in Bradenton Florida right off. The Manatee River very few folks are are like me that have lived in Florida their whole life, so I get that reaction. All the time like wow you're, a native. You know my folks moved up here when um I was in elementary school, went to Curly, Creek Elementary went to Palm Harbor Middle and then I graduated from East Lake, High School, so I'm a local Yokel that my dad would call it wonderful.

A

And then what what was the Tampa Bay Area? Were you in Oldsmar at that time? Where were you when, when growing up.

B

Yeah I was in Palm Harbor, just a few miles away. um I raced radio control cars was a huge hobby of mine. There was an old race track at the flea market in the 80s, and uh so we drove through Oldsmar all the time and I. Remember it being a two-lane road. uh I remember the Boot Ranch was a boot and it was a cattle farm and when you drove by the Boot Ranch, they had an RC playing field and I used to just look over there and they would race around these pylons like so.

B

It was always cool to come and watch that, but it was all two lane roads. There was a lot of country back then um and I've seen it. You know progress from a two-lane road to four lane to a six-lane highway. Nice.

A

Through the years, how did the weather become a hobby for you.

B

Well, I think um you know growing up just living in Florida. You always have storms heading our way, so I I would I would love the cone of uncertainty like I, would wake up and see Jim Cantore, you know and like couldn't wait for the latest tropical update and just get that excitement like oh yeah, the possible hurricane coming or a storm. You know and and I would actually the old. You know a lot of Old Timers will tell you they used to set their watches to the thunderstorms and I.

B

Remember growing up as a kid three o'clock those storms would roll in and you could almost plan on those storms rolling in eat dinner, at five and by seven you go back out and you play in the streets with the water. So I always remember that as a kid, how fascinating it was for the afternoon thunderstorms to like set your routine at night. You know that's.

A

Great great story, so let's talk about uh your college. What was your major I.

B

Went to business uh marketing and uh thought I was going to be an engineer, didn't know what I wanted to do. No I, don't think any kid at least my little circle. Nobody knew what they wanted to do until I got that calculus book one day and I'm like nope, not for me, so I got in love with marketing. It was the year the Budweiser frogs. It was a Super Bowl I got intrigued with the commercials, and in my head said, this is what I'm gonna do and I'm loving it.

B

I love, marketing and kind of Market myself. With this whole weather thing. This seems like well.

A

Just so, you know: I go to very I'm, very involved in the floor League of cities and when I'm there they talk about you at their that your weather, they there's a lot of elected officials around the state that love your website and they follow you. What encourage you to start your website and whether company to keep citizens updated.

B

Well, so it was 2004, we had a storm called Hurricane Charlie coming to Tampa and uh we were home. I was, you know, just got married, so we were married three years. So now it's like a homeowner. You know and I'm like oh I, got to be responsible here because we got a hurricane coming and uh there was. It was really hard to find information back then uh I knew there was things called spaghetti models.

B

um The internet was fresh, I, don't even think Google was around. Then there used to be like lycos or something like a cow I. Don't remember, but finding stuff was impossible. The internet was new, so I was learning a little bit of HTML website design in college and so I'm gonna make a website, call it Mike's weather page, and it was for me just to have all my links that I need to track. Hurricane Charlie, you know, and it was every time I found a new picture.

B

I'd be like Oh, I'm gonna put it on the page. You know so that was the birth it was. It was a One-Stop shop to go, see the latest models in Hurricane maps from the National Hurricane Center, and it was this shared amongst friends and family. It was just mainly a easy spot to go and get data for the storm so.

A

How did you come up with the name? It's just the spaghetti models. Is that what you wanted to.

B

Call it yeah, no, that's uh actually, for the first three years it was a sub domain of another website that I had it wasn't even searchable. It was like a hidden site, you know, and I just got the idea one day of spaghetti models, because I love spaghetti models and that's those little squiggly lines that they show on TV. You know all the possibilities of where Storm's gonna go.

B

Those are spaghetti models um yeah, so you know it's like and I can spell spaghetti for 10 years and and thank goodness, Google fixes your correction now, because uh you know people used to tell me all the time you should make it easier because nobody can spell spaghetti so now. Luckily, I bought Mike's weather page too, and a little hyperlink back to Spaghetti.

A

So you got both perfect, both perfect names, it's kind of funny. You talked about Hurricane Charlie in 2004, because what I I had just been here for a couple years I had no idea what to do, and they said it was coming to Tampa so I my daughter had a house down in Fort Myers, so I went to her house. Well, it hit us I mean thank God. She had hurricane shutters because it blew off some of her shingles on her roof and that storm was crazy.

A

Yeah and the palm trees were hitting the ground boom boom outside and it was just a crazy storm. So I know all about it.

B

Yeah, well, you know back then the internet was not that popular and I. Remember they made that turn at the last second, you know everybody was focused on Tampa and all sudden. Local meteorologists are like hey this thing's. Turning a little bit, you know and um yeah people down there were caught off guard I, remember uh don germay's I think his name was he did the infamous hunker down uh ABC.

B

Was there and I'll never forget watching him as a storm chaser, you know, and maybe that's where a click for me down the road I'm like I, want to be that guy I want to be the hunker down guy in the hurricane, but yeah I. Remember like it was yesterday here. It is 18 years later and.

A

She, my daughter, lost power. If I don't know how about a week by the way, I helped her clean up, we cleaned up everything, and then we had to go home to Tampa, of course, and the 75 was is was it was just crazy people. It was crazy all right, let's keep going Mike's weather page grown over the years on Facebook. What's your social media platforms are what social media platforms are you on.

B

All of them now uh I used to have all my eggs in one basket with Facebook um other people. You know I've found out some people like Twitter, um expanding big time on YouTube YouTube's, getting really large. A lot of folks only live on YouTube. Now they have YouTube TV, so I'm glad I'm on that I have to comb my hair now, because people tell me that they watch me on their 80 inch TVs. You know so.

B

I had to be conscious about that um and then also like I said: I have a tick tock account and an Instagram account. So basically, five social channels.

A

That'll keep you busy. Oh my God and.

B

Everybody's got a different there's, a different crowd on every one.

A

Of them, yeah it'll keep you busy. So, as I told you before, a lot of people from the Florida League of cities around all elected officials should follow you. How many followers do you have combined? Do you think.

B

It's just a little bit over 2 million, if you add them all up.

A

Wonderful, that is a war. That's amazing! You won the tropical meteorology meteorology award at the governor's hurricane conference. What makes this a special award for you? Oh.

B

Good question mayor um the the hardest struggle I've had growing. This might swear page, uh you know through the years has been credibility uh and you know I always advertise I'm, not official, not a real meteorologist, I'm self-taught and everybody knows that. But you get the haters. You know, obviously, because my numbers are grown but to get that award, um it's usually given to Noah. You know Nashville or service people. I think I was the first civilian to win it.

B

It's always been reserved for like people in the industry, so and and it's actually voted upon by a lot of people in the industry to get that award. So to get that you know recognition who I was uh was kind of like The credibility, I needed you know to say Hey. You know this. This Mike is legit, you know, at least you know it's another source for information and to be accredited and really the uh uh the next year uh the Florida Division of Emergency Management reached out, and they did a wanted to do.

B

A zoom call, Mr Kevin Guthrie on the page and I was like man to have the state reach out and trust. You know me on their platforms uh meant a lot, so those helped me I think at least kind of shut, the naysayers down a little bit. You know and leave me alone well.

A

With having over 2 million viewers and when I've learned about you in the last couple years, you deserve that award and I'm. The city of Oldsmar is very honored to have you here in our city and we're grateful for that, and uh that award was well deserving to you.

B

A

Governor yeah that that's actually pretty special I.

B

Appreciate that.

A

You're welcome. You have made a name for yourself by actually storm chasing various weather events. What is the most memorable Chase so.

B

Yeah, this is something I, don't think my wife agrees with 100, but something inside me, I I I track them online and you know I. Eventually, one day said: I gotta be out there. So probably the scariest moment for me was Hurricane. Ida I went up to Louisiana alone, I, don't know what I was thinking uh solo and the eye wall was coming and those bridges of the Mississippi I, don't know if you, if you're ever driven in Louisiana, the bridges are very tall. Very old and I was racing to find a spot.

B

This Hurricane's coming I, don't know where I'm going these roads go for 20 miles with with no side. I had a moment there. I was like what are you doing Mike you know going over this bridge I mean the truck's like moving around and I'm pulling up close to the side. Thinking. Well, if it does flip at least I won't flip too far you know, and so I got the safety and it was. uh It was kind of like I learned to plan a little more ahead where I'm going to go ahead of the storm.

B

I kind of got there a little too late and didn't have a plan now. I have a plan where I want to go e and I wrote it out, went to the north side, stayed away from The Surge. A lot of storm chasers got wrapped up in the surge at Fort, Myers Beach uh at least I've learned enough now to stay away from that. You know not put myself in the Harm's Way good.

A

So well, that's a great story. Thank you! So much so, let's talk about our hometown of Oldsmar. You know it's hurricane Seasons coming around the corn, it's we're in it now and it's gonna. You know we're concerned. We almost saw what happened last year. So what would it be? What would be the worst hurricane scenario for the city of Oldsmar? What would that be?.

B

uh What I've seen in Fort, Myers I think complacency is going to be the word that you can always probably thought I'd say, uh and this is because we are in the worst possible spot for a hurricane like Tampa Bay, shallow shelf, all that water in the Bay has nowhere to go, but up and and unfortunately towards us um we had Charlie turn Irma turned Ian turned.

B

You know, I I'm, so worried that if we do get the next hurricane, that's approaching, our residents aren't going to they're going to say ah yeah I'm not going to waste my time evacuating. um But what scares me is this water. You know ninety percent of well, roughly 90 of all hurricane deaths, are water related, um the wind you hide from the wind, but it's water, the water is the Killer and unfortunately, for us I, don't know you know around town. We have these water markers.

B

There's one at Forest, Lake Elementary, there's one off of um line ball. Those are real life water scenarios that we could become connected to Lake, Tarpon, Watershed and Pinellas. County could be an island, and that would only be a category three, so The Perfect Storm would come to our North. You know twice now: our Bay is empty, emptied out of water. Once during Irma, once they're in Ian storm went to our South and the way that the winds work counterclockwise. It basically blew the winds out of the bay. So our our worst thing.

B

That scares me as a storm to the north and all that water turns in and we had uh tropical storm Ada in 2020. It was 60 miles off our Coast and we had a record surge in Tampa Bay we had homes flooded, thousand homes were flooded along Pinellas County. We had some here in oil's Barn. It was a tropical storm, never even made landfall and it was a high tide. So that kind of told you you know what could happen, and that was a nothing storm.

B

So you know it scares me 1921, our bank, that we're in now was underwater. You know this is quite a bit. You know it's about a mile from from the bay right.

A

B

We have gotten hit, Oldsmar was flattened in 21 and at William. Unfortunately, Mother Nature will repeat herself.

A

Right and unfortunately, ariold's left, he left the city because of that and he gave up his his dream so, but we're still here so, let's talk about. Okay people got to be prepared with hurricane season upon us. How should everyone prepare know? Your zones yep very important, sign up for alert, Pinellas evacuate when mandated. Let's talk about that for a minute, because, because the last hurricane we had um people didn't leave, can you talk about how important it is to leave.

B

I've learned so storm chasing's taught me one thing: seeing things firsthand versus being just telling you until is different than seeing it firsthand I've seen things firsthand now, I made my wife evacuate and my mom and dad like that's serious, because that water scary scares me and what happened down in Fort Myers. Some people didn't have enough time because they got the you know, maybe decision that they made was 12 hours out. So what would scare me here in Oldsmar is oh this thing's going to turn. They always turn.

B

You know six hours before it's not turning right. I, don't even know how you evacuated a million people out of Pinellas County I mean traffic. Now is the worst I've ever seen it so don't get stranded. I had I talk to people firsthand at Fort Myers that just turned around and came home. Alligator Alley was Bumper to Bumper 75. It's like you know. How stressed you are now you imagine sitting in traffic knowing that Hurricane's four hours away and you're stuck in traffic.

B

So you know I'm not saying use me as a source, but you know National Hurricane Center, you I think the best um advice to give anybody is to almost have to educate yourself like.

A

B

You're presented with the facts you're presented with all these spaghetti models, you're presented with the cone. You almost have to make that decision well enough ahead of time, so you could beat that mad rush out of.

A

Here you know if.

B

It doesn't hit us guess what you got a free night hotel somewhere and live it up.

A

You know right exactly.

B

um So, just you know just don't fall into that trap. It hasn't hit us because that's what happened down South 200 people, I think plus died that wrote out Charlie and they said ah it's gonna, be nothing. Every Storm's different Charlie was this little guy that fit in the eye of Ian and the locals down there. You know complacency I've been through it, I'll be okay and yeah.

A

B

Water maps are real, we will be underwater.

A

So, let's talk about an evacuation plan, as I told you before, I went to Fort Myers when Charlie hit and I and I got I was in the right in the middle of that storm. It was, it was so it was devastating to the whole area. When you talk about an evacuation plan, what, let's? Let's say it's coming towards Oldsmar? Where will we go North Orlando? Where well.

B

I think the new advice is family or friends, get away from the water. You know um again, they're not suggesting go hundreds of miles away, because the whole idea is to get away from the water.

B

um Unfortunately, for us in the peninsula, everybody evacuated to Orlando during Charlie and and also with Ian, and guess what the hurricane goes right. Over top of you and you're still stuck with no power, roads are a mess. So if you live on immediate water, I think the number one goal for safety is just get away from the water you know, but um as far as anybody else it you know, I would just get the heck. You know if it's going to the Panhandle go south.

B

You know I've told a lot of people in the past like if we know that Storm's going to the north, you can go to the South. You know to get away from it, but the traffic's a nightmare. So um it's almost like you know: you're gonna ride it out. You know, uh you know. Friends and family is Smart Suggestions, because you can all ride it out together and hopefully, somebody's got a generator um and plan ahead. Like I mean what I usually do is you know some people make hotel reservations way in advance.

B

You know like this: thing's got a chance, make a hotel reservation. It doesn't hurt. You know you can always cancel it. Great.

A

B

Other thing is make sure these are pet, friendly hotels. um You know a lot of folks take their pets with them, and then they realize they can't take them. So it's almost like part of that get a plan ahead of time is like okay. If what, if we are getting a hurricane, where are we going to go? We're gonna go to cousin Bob's in Orlando, and so.

A

When you say get away with a uh away from the water we plant, cities, Zephyr Hills state city, like that's close.

B

Enough right, something like that right, yeah, even 20, to 30 miles yeah, because then.

A

You're North your North uh East and you're out of the way away from the water and right, okay right.

B

And that's: that's your choice uh for safety. You know for life, you know like I said: 90 of deaths are usually water related. You know what happened with Ian. You know we had uh Arcadia was flooded, um so he almost got almost look at history and not you know, obviously not go to an area. It's got a big river or Inland flooding because there were, there were um St John's river in um North. Florida got flooded, so it weren't a bad spot in Florida.

B

You know if it was me personally I'd probably go way past the Panhandle I'd go to the Panhandle and make a make a turn west and just have no chance of getting stuck without power and water. You know gotcha.

A

Well, that's good! So, let's say: there's people there's a lot of residents that say: I'm staying sticking it out supplies what should they get so they are prepared in case there's a crazy storm hits.

B

Us yeah I think the going thing now is like enough for seven days: food and water, pet supplies. Medicines are huge, a lot of people don't plan ahead with medicines, pet medicines, of course, water, fresh water, um the evacuation kits I have links for them. You know the the biggest thing is x amount of days per person. You know they want to make sure you can ride it out for several days because you won't have fresh water.

B

Probably, and the biggest thing, though, is, are your medicines uh having things like uh half a half a tank of gas is a great. My dad told me this actually and I heard it from a big Expo. Is that starting hurricane season right now?

B

You know we're in July August time frame always have a half tank of gas in your car, because if something were to happen, that's enough to get you pretty far out of Harm's Way, but you know if you're empty and all of our gas runs out, so the good advice, I heard it helps some people start out the season the whole season with at least some gas in your car. So if you have to evacuate you're, not panicking gotcha, you know have, if you have a generator a lot of people.

B

Don't know this, you gotta have gas or propane. You know so make sure you got. You know your cans of gas ready to go uh because gas is going to be short supply and always have your extension. Cords figured out never run a generator in a house number one. Death for a lot of storms were generator safety and carbon monoxide is the silent killer.

B

So a lot of folks don't know that you know generators got to be several server, I think it's 20 feet or 30 feet, I'm, not sure, officially, but way away from your house. Not your garage, not the patio, so you got to have extension cords a lot of folks. Don't know that you know your cell phones, you need to have charging battery Banks your best friend, um you know weather radios. You can buy, that are solar powered, which I suggest highly Good.

A

Wonderful, that's great great advice for everybody. So I want to share a quick story with the with the listeners about you and I. So you were having dinner one night at the old, our Tap House when it was there and you're with your daughter, and you guys are eating dinner and I stopped in and I said Mike. What do you think about that hurricane? It's gonna miss us and you, you said it. It was just getting started down by Puerto Rico and you said Dan, it's a bad one. I have a bad feeling.

A

You said it like three times: it's a bad feeling. It's gone it's coming for us. What were you thinking at that.

B

Point I remember yeah, because uh you're going out of town, if I recall and I'm like man, we might have a hurricane while you're gone, you know and uh that's a lot of what I do long range forecasts. That's how much I believe in spaghetti models. You know, and they were already lining up, then the highest pressures, low pressures, and you start to just have that gut feeling from history.

B

um This is maybe the one you know um so there are there is there is a lot of data with spaghetti models and knowing how to read them. But at that with that particular storm, you know it was. It was like the water was hot. Everything was just every you know. Everything for the perfect storm was lining up and unfortunately you know we have to worry about something called rapid intensification here in Florida and that's the the Gulf Waters are very warm.

B

We have these things called Loop, Eddies, Loop currents and and these storms blow up at the last second, you know most of them come from a tropical storm. Three days out. You know uh we last thing: I'll leave. You here is the most amazing stat ever, but there's been 10 hurricanes to hit the United States that were 150 mile an hour plus over the years. Nine of those were tropical storms three days out so three days they go from a tropical storm to 150 mile an hour plus.

B

So that's where you have to really pay attention to forecast. You know biggest problem with the end. It was supposed to be a hurricane when it made landfall. It was supposed to hit Friday like this last most important thing that I learned from Ian all the forecasts: hurricane and the Panhandle. It's going to weaken on Friday landfall people on the West Coast, uh even if it turns it's gonna hit Friday as a hurricane and their mindset, the landfall was still going to be Friday as a hurricane.

B

No, it was still a major hurricane two days before and it turned now it hit Wednesday because it was two days on that chart. Nobody thought about that. They're not like. Oh, it's not gonna hit Friday, it's gonna hit Wednesday and everybody was caught with their pants down. um Well,.

A

Yeah I remember it was the news kept saying it's coming to oldsmeyer it's coming to Oldsmar it's coming right and they were calling me on the phone but um we're blessed with the city. Our.

B

City 20 miles remember: we were talking before the show yeah, so the graphics 20 miles shift is all we had from from Fort Myers to Oldsmar. So you think about that. The scope of things, because the angle of approach, 20.

A

Miles, that's it yep.

B

Wow and unfortunately it's not if it's gonna happen for us, it's wind and we just have to be prepared.

A

Then the water is going to come up.

B

Because of the wind yep wind surge.

A

All right, let's pray that doesn't happen, but I um think that I. Thank you again. Anything else you want to share before we we close here no.

B

Just uh you know you got any time with hurricanes I. Think of all the natural disasters. It's the least one to be concerned about you know tornadoes. You have very little time to prepare earthquakes. You know tsunamis, um fire wildfires, you know so hurricanes. You get a lot of time. You know you got, you got no excuse really other than you know not wanting to leave at least with hurricane. You know you got a time to get out and prepare your family and you know material things can be replaced.

B

um Just don't be that cowboy thinking that this isn't going to happen to us because it will happen to us one day. It did happen one day and it will again. Let's.

A

Keep working together! Thank you, Mike, for coming out. I appreciate you being my guest today to find a list of podcast segments visit, experienceoldsmar.com I'm, your host Oldsmar Dan saraki. Until next time, I invite you to check out all the great things you can do to truly experience the city of Oldsmar and stay safe hurricane season. Thank you so much Mike again, thanks. You are the best MR Hurricane. Thank you.