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From YouTube: Keynote: Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones - Simon Wardley, Researcher, Leading Edge Forum
Description
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Keynote: Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones - Simon Wardley, Researcher, Leading Edge Forum
"Deng Xiaoping once described managing the economy as crossing the river by feeling the stones in other words have a direction but be adaptive. But in a world of constant change, how do you determine the right thing to do? Which pebble to tread on? How do you understand where you're going and where you need to go? How do you know if your strategy is right? Is there even such a thing?
In this talk, we start by examining the issue of situational awareness and how it applies to technology. Using examples from government and the commercial world, we then explore how you can map your environment, identify opportunities to exploit and learn patterns of change."
"About Simon
Simon Wardley is a Researcher for Leading Edge Forum, a global research and thought leadership programme dedicated to helping large organizations reimagine their organizations and leadership for a technology-driven future. Simon is also lead practitioner for LEFs Wardley Maps Advisory service which helps client anticipate market and ecosystem developments so they know where to go and why. Simon’s focus is on strategic play both at an industrial and global level. He is the author of multiple reports including Clash of the Titans: Can China Dethrone Silicon Valley?, a pioneer in the use of topographical intelligence within business, a former executive and an advisory board member for several successful start-ups. He has twice been voted as one of the UK's top 50 most influential people in technology. Simon has spent the last 20 years defining future strategies for companies in the FMCG, Retail and Technology industries. He is a passionate advocate in the fields of strategic play, organizational structure, open source and leadership and is a regular presenter at conferences worldwide."
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A
Hello
crossing
the
river
by
feeling
the
stones
I
better,
tell
you
where
we're
going
today,
I'm
gonna
start
off
talking
about
the
subject
of
strategy,
after
which
we're
heading
south
I'm,
going
to
talk
about
situational
awareness.
Anybody
here
with
a
military
background,
no
one
go
on
shout
out:
oh
good,
right,
excellent
super!
A
After
that
we're
going
to
talk
about
maps
and
why
they
matter
then
I'm
going
to
talk
about
patterns
in
economic
cycles
before
we
finally
finish
talking
about
service,
how
many
of
you
are
into
service,
go
on
whoo
or
boo,
or
whatever
right,
we'll
get
there
soon?
Okay,
so
we're
going
to
talk
about
the
issue
of
strategy
I'm,
going
to
take
you
way
back
in
time
back
to
2005,
when
I
was
CEO
of
this
company,
it
was
called
for
tango.
It
was
an
online
photo
service.
A
We
had
about
16
different
lines
of
business
very
profitable,
but
it
had
a
really
big
problem
and
the
problem
was
this:
chap
the
CEO,
because
the
CEO
was
a
fake
CEO.
They
were
making
it
up
as
they
went
along
and
I
knew
this,
because
I
was
the
CEO
so
rather
than
being
sort
of
a
chess
playing
master
I
was
the
alchemist.
It
was
all
you
know:
gap-fill
whatever's
popular
in
the
HBR
Harvard
Business
Review.
A
We
had
vision
statements.
So
this
is
our
vision
statement
from
2003
our
strategies,
customer
focus.
We
will
lead
an
innovative
effort
in
the
market
through
our
use
of
agile
techniques
and
open
source.
The
problem
is
I'd
pinched
that
from
someone
else
and
just
changed
a
few
words
now
it
was
a
little
bit
concerned
that
people
would
rumble
that
I
didn't
know
what
I
was
talking
about.
So
I
went
around.
A
Recording
other
CEOs
talking
about
strategy
and
I
would
record
the
words
they
would
use
I
called
them
business
level,
abstractions
of
a
healthy
strategy
or
blasts
for
short
I.
Do
this
every
couple
of
years
this
was
2014
the
common
Blas
digital
business,
Big,
Data,
disruptive,
innovative
collaborative
competitive
advantage,
blah
blah
blah.
If
I
did
it
today.
What
would
you
hear.
A
A
A
A
A
Number
two
I've
seen
two
of
these
used
already
and
the
third
and
my
favorite
is:
are
you
for
hire
so
anyway?
A
friend
of
mines
put
this
all
online.
This
is
strategy
as
a
service,
so
if
you
ever
need
a
strategy
just
type
in
the
URL
and
a
little
automatically
generates
you
one
based
upon
nothing
whatsoever,
if
you
don't
like
it,
it's
really
simple,
just
press
refresh
so
I
started
to
suspect
I
might
not
be
the
only
one
making
it
all
up.
So
I
went
back
to
first
principles
started
with
their
Sun
soup.
A
Anybody
know
what
Sun
Tzu
wrote:
art
of
war
right
super
talked
about
five
factors
that
mattered
in
competition.
One
understand
your
purpose
to
understand.
The
landscape
you're
competing
in
three
understand
the
climatic
pans
that
influence
the
landscape
for
understand,
doctrine,
your
principles
of
organization
and
five.
You
get
into
the
leadership
bed,
which
is
all
about
where
to
attack,
etc.
So
I
came
across
John
Boyd
anybody
heard
of
John
Boyd
Oh
dilutes
fantastic
US,
Air
Force
pilots,
so
he
created
what
was
called
the
OODA
loop.
So
you
have
the
game.
The
purpose.
A
Your
next
step
is
to
observe
the
environment.
That's
the
first!
Oh
that's,
landscape
and
climactic
patterns.
I
have
a
new
orientate
around
this
that's
doctrine
and
decide
where
you're
going
to
attack,
and
then
you
act
and
I
was
quite
excited
by
this,
and
I
would
share
it
to
others,
and
there
we
go
doesn't
matter
strategy
is
all
about
the
importance
of
why
now
the
interesting
thing
is,
there
are
two
why's
there's
the.
A
Why
of
purpose,
as
in
I
want
to
do
something
and
there's
the
why
of
movement
as
in
the
choices
I
make
so,
for
example,
a
game
of
chess,
your.
Why
of
purpose,
might
be
to
win
the
game,
your?
Why
of
movement
is.
Do
I,
move
this
piece
or
that
piece
and
it's
through
moving
an
action
that
we
actually
learn.
A
So
I
went
back
to
my
company
for
tango,
16
lines
of
business.
Very
profitable
revenue,
growing
CEO
doesn't
know
what
I'm
doing
we
have
a
perp.
Well,
it
was
a
bit
of
a
mess,
but
I
knew
it
was
a
cycle,
so
we
could
get
better
with
this
overtime.
So
how
did
I
understand
or
observe
the
landscape?
Now
that
brought
me
to
my
second
subject,
which
is
situational
awareness,
so
I'll
give
you
two
examples:
we'll
start
with
Vikings
very
frightening
people.
This
is
how
Vikings
used
to
navigate
they
used
to
use
stories.
A
A
A
bit
undecided:
what
do
we
think
we
use
in
business
stories
right
super?
So
another
example
is
the
Battle
of
Thermopylae.
So
this
the
mystical
is
ancient
politician.
Greek
general
had
a
problem.
Persians
were
invading
170,000
odd
person.
What
is
he
decide
to
do
was
to
block
off
the
streets
of
Artemis
ium
force
the
Persians
along
a
coastal
road
into
a
narrow
pass
called
Thermopylae,
where
a
small
number
of
troops
could
defend
against
a
larger
force.
Now
there
are
about
4,000
Greeks,
including
300,
Spartans
right.
A
You
know
the
story,
so
I
want
you
to
imagine
you're
part
of
the
Athenian
army.
It's
the
eve
of
battle
I'm,
giving
you
purpose.
I'm.
The
mystical
is
and
I
say
to
you:
I,
don't
understand
the
landscape.
I,
don't
understand
the
environment.
I
don't
have
a
map,
but
have
no
fear
for
I
have
created
a
SWAT
diagram.
A
Strengths
and
well
trained
spine
army,
a
high
level
of
motivation
not
to
become
a
Persian
slave
weaknesses.
The
ethos
might
stop
these
smart
ins.
Turning
up
a
truckload
of
Persians
are
turning
up
opportunities,
get
rid
of
the
Persians
get
rid
of
the
Spartans
were
athenian.
We
hate
the
spawns
and
threats
the
Persians
get
rid
of
us
and
the
Oracle
says
a
really
dodgy
film
might
be
produced
a
few
thousand
years
later.
A
A
So
arts?
Yes,
excellent,
super!
So
if
I
go
back
to
chess
versus
alchemy,
look
at
navigation
learning
and
strategy,
then
chess.
It's
all
visual
context,
specific.
It's
all
about
position
and
movement.
It's
what
we
call
a
high-level
situational
awareness
environment
spit
like
the
military.
If
you
ask
a
general,
why
do
they?
Why
did
you
bomb
a
hill?
They
won't
say
because
I
read
an
article
in
general
weekly,
the
bombing
Hills
was
the
latest
thing.
A
They
won't
say
this
consultant
gave
me
a
report
saying
67%
of
other
generals
of
bombing
Hills
I
should
bomb
a
hill,
they
won't
say
because
that's
what
uber
would
do
and
it's
all
about
position
and
movement
and
now
business.
Isn't
it's
all
about
magic
frameworks
and
we
love
our
secrets
of
success.
This
is
my
favorite.
Have
a
business
review,
how
earlobes
can
signify
leadership
potential
from
November
2011?
A
It's
Safran
ology
of
management
anyway,
so
alchemy
is
all
about
storytelling
secrets
of
success,
magic
frameworks,
low
level,
situational
awareness,
environment,
that's
where
I
was
as
this
fake
CEO
and
that's
I
wanted
to
be
over
there.
Now.
The
difference
between
these
two
environments
is
the
existence
non-existence
of
a
map
which
brings
me
to
my
third
subject,
which
is
maps.
A
So
what
makes
a
map
well
maps
have
certain
characteristics,
their
visual,
their
context
specific.
This
is
a
battle
of
thermopylae,
not
the
Battle
of
Waterloo.
You
have
an
anchor
in
this
case
a
compass.
You
have
the
position
of
pieces
and
you
have
consistency
of
movement.
So
if
I
want
to
go
from
Thebes
to
Athens,
which
way
would
I
go
south
southeast
ish?
Yes
right
so,
if
I
head
it
off
from
Thebes,
went
southeast
and
ended
up
in
Thermopylae.
What
would
that
tell
me
that
either
maps
wrong
or
the
compass
is
wrong?
Perfect
right?
A
A
A
Yes,
so
it
doesn't
change
this
map
because,
unsurprisingly,
this
is
not
a
map
in
maps
you
see,
space
have
meaning.
Now
we
have
loads
of
things
in
business,
recall,
Maps,
business
process,
Maps,
mind
maps
and
they
all
have
one
characteristic
in
common,
which
is
they're,
not
Maps.
We
keep
on
using
that
word
and
I'm
afraid
it
doesn't
mean
what
we
think
it
means
so
had
a
map.
Sorry
I
took
a
systems
diagram
first
thing
I
had
to
do
was
give
it
an
anchor.
A
So,
in
this
case,
I
started
with
the
customer
as
the
anchor
focus
around
the
user
need,
then
you
have
to
have
position
so
I
organized
the
components
in
a
chain
of
needs.
Customer
needs
this.
This
needs
that
this
needs
that
so
I've
now
got
anchor
and
position.
Lastly,
I
need
movement
and
the
way
I
dealt
with
movement
was
to
add
an
evolution
access
because
there's
a
common
pattern
by
which
things
evolve.
A
We
start
with
the
genesis
of
the
novel
and
new
customer
of
examples,
products
and
rental
services,
commodity
and
utility
services,
and
that
was
the
first
map
I
produced
in
2005
and
in
this
map,
space
has
meaning.
So
it's
quite
exciting.
It
showed
it
to
others
and
they
were
went.
So
what
that
brings
me
to
patterns
right
once
you
can
understand
the
landscape.
You
can
start
to
observe
climactic
pans
and
there's
around
30
common
climactic
patterns.
These
are
the
rules
that
influence
the
game.
I'll,
give
you
a
few
everything
evolves.
A
A
Because
of
this,
you
have
another
pan
that
there's
no
such
thing
as
one
size
fits
all
methods.
We'd
gone
all
agile,
extreme
programming
in
2002
by
2004
we
had
realized.
It
doesn't
work
everywhere,
extreme
program,
agile,
in-house,
very
good
on
the
Left
Six
Sigma,
outsourcing
very
good
on
the
right
lean,
very
good
in
the
middle,
because
one
your
focus,
reducing
cost
of
change,
one,
your
focus
on
learning
and
one
your
focused
on
reducing
deviation.
A
The
next
pack
we
learnt
is.
We
had
inertia
to
change
because
of
past
success,
so
blockbuster
Netflix,
who
was
first
with
the
website,
bla
Buster,
who
was
first
with
video
ordering
online
blockbuster
great.
He
was
first
with
experimenting
with
video
streaming
blockbuster
great.
He
went
bankrupt
first
bla,
Buster
gray,
it's
not
because
they
couldn't
innovate.
They
also
innovated
everyone.
They
had
inertia
created
by
their
existing
business
models.
So
now,
once
you
learn
these
patterns,
I've
shown
you
a
few.
You
can
start
to
anticipate
the
obvious.
A
So
in
2005
we
new
platform
and
compute
was
going
to
utility.
We
knew
would
have
inertia.
We
knew
this.
Would
enable
people
to
build
new
and
novel
things
on
top,
and
so
that
gave
us
multiple
points
of
attack
where
we
could
invest
the
next
set
of
patents,
our
doctrine-
these
are
all
about
organizational
structure.
Basic
thing
like
focusing
on
user
needs,
removing
bias
and
duplication
and
cell
based
structures,
there's
about
40
of
those
or
skip
that
and
get
straight
into
the
leadership
it.
A
These
are
all
about
context,
specific
forms
of
gameplay,
of
which
there
are
70
at
least
70.
Well,
actually,
I
know
there's
more
than
70,
but
publicly
say
70.
So
what
you've
got
is
a
map
you
can
anticipate
where
things
are
going.
What
we
mean
by
context
specific
forms
of
play
is
you
can
manipulate
the
market?
You
can
use
open
approaches
to
drive
things
to
a
more
industrialized
state,
fear,
uncertainty
and
doubt
to
slow.
It
weathers
inertia
barriers.
A
You
can
use
constraints,
there's
all
sorts
of
ways
of
manipulating
the
market,
and
so
what
you
do
with
this
is
you
come
up
with
a
context,
specific
form
of
gameplay.
So
what
we
did
in
2005
is
we
realized
that
somebody
else
was
likely
to
play
the
compute
utility
game.
I
thought
it
was
going
to
be
Google,
so
we
decide
to
build
the
world's
first
ever
utility
platform,
a
true
service
environment,
JavaScript,
front
and
back-end
with
functional
billing,
and
that's
what
we
launched,
because
the
next
step
is
what
you
do.
A
Unfortunately,
the
parent
company
had
a
big
consultancy,
come
in
and
say
the
three
things
that
we
were
doing:
mobile
phones
as
cameras,
3d,
printing
and
cloud
were
not
the
future.
The
future
was
in
fact
3d
television,
so
we
should
shut
it
all
down
and
and
and
do
3d
TV
and,
of
course,
Amazon
then
launched,
etc.
Anybody
hate
have
a
3d
TV
one
fantastic.
Do
you
use
it?
No
right,
ok,
fine,
but
it
wasn't
all
lost
because
the
point
is
I
could
use
the
maps
and
we
could
learn
because
it
had
the
context.
A
We'd,
go
back
and
learn
from
them
in
a
way
that
we
didn't
I've,
never
learnt
with
swats
or
business
models,
so
at
a
bun,
because
I
knew
mark
and
I
joined
a
bun,
we
mapped
it
all
out
in
2008
used
the
map
to
identify
where
to
attack
spent
about
half
a
million.
We
were
2%
of
the
operating
system
market.
Roughly
it
took
me
18
months
and
we
took
70
percent
of
all
cloud.
Do
you
remember
that
time?
Where
bun
nobody
really
heard
of
it,
and
then
it
was
all
over
cloud?
Anybody.
A
Thank
you.
These
days,
I
do
mainly
government
stuff,
a
nation-state
competition
things
like
that
right.
So
that
brings
me
to
the
final
bit,
which
is
service
and
I've,
got
about
two
and
a
half
minutes
left
so
we'll
go
through
a
trail
through
history
compute
the
early
days,
applications
were
built
in
hardware
plugs
and
all
that
sort
of
stuff
this
evolved,
and
then
we
came
up
with
custom-built
examples
like
Leo
Lyons
electronic
office,
as
we've
got
our
applications,
we've
got
an
operating
system
built
on
computes
this
all
evolved.
A
Eventually,
we
got
products
like
the
IBM
650,
so
we
got
applications
built
on
operating
system
built
on
computers
a
product.
Now
one
of
the
characteristics
of
computers,
a
product
was
high.
Mttr
I
mean
time
to
recovery.
So
when
my
server
went
bang,
it
would
take
me
weeks,
if
not
months,
to
get
a
new
one.
So
we
built
lots
of
novel
architectural
practices
like
disaster
recovery,
test
n
plus-1
capacity
planning.
Do
you
remember
all
that
gibberish
good
right
super
duper
and
then
that
evolved
and
we
created
new
tribes
around
those
sorts
of
practices?
A
And
we
would
laugh
anybody.
You
know.
What
do
you
mean?
You
ran
out
of
space
on
your
email
server,
something
oil
on
those
lines.
Of
course
we
got
language
frameworks.
So
now
we
have
applications
built
on
emerging
coding
practice
on
a
language
framework.
All
of
that
stuff
was
evolving
and
it
sort
of
ended
up
here
and
we
were
all
happy
applications,
best
coding
practice
on
a
framework
on
an
operating
system,
best
architectural
practices
on
computers,
a
product
and
then
something
really
evil
happened,
which
was
cloud.
A
That's
the
entire
history
of
out
that
dotted
red
line.
What
it
means
is
we
shifted
from
product
to
utility,
but
it
has
a
big
impact
because
it
creates
another
pattern
which
is
known
as
coevolution
of
practice.
We
went
from
high
MTCR
to
low
mean
time
to
recovery,
so
not
weeks,
but
seconds
create
a
new
server.
So
suddenly
we
can
distribute
systems
design
for
failure,
continuous
deployment,
because
we're
not
waiting
for
months
for
the
server
to
turn
up.
So
everybody
everyone
got
excited
by
cloud.
A
They
got
bored
of
earlobes,
so
basically,
CEOs
ran
around
saying
make
my
stuff
cloudy
people
put
their
stuff
onto
Amazon,
it
had
an
outage,
people
would
run
around
screaming
the
end
of
cloud
is
nigh.
Do
you
remember
those
days
good
right?
You
would
go
shouldn't.
Our
architecture
evolved
as
well.
They
would
go
burning
heretic.
A
Do
you
remember
that
good
right?
But
nonetheless,
these
new
practices
were
appearing.
It
was
just
we
had
an
ER
Shakur's
by
the
old
practices
that
would
evolve.
A
new
tribe
would
form
we
gave
it
a
name
devops.
We
would
run
around
screaming,
it's
all
about
user
needs,
iterative
cycles,
automation,
etc,
and
the
old
tribe
would
go
so
was
ITIL.
A
Compute,
obviously,
the
operating
system
became
more
of
a
commodity
and
now
we're
seeing
the
same
with
service,
shifting
code,
execution
environments
going
from
our
product
snack
to
much
more
utility
and
we're
seeing
the
same
coevolution
of
practice
combining
finance
and
development
together,
and,
of
course,
that
will
evolve.
So
that's
the
future
service
and
the
combined
emerging
practices
that
are
appearing
a
new
tribe
is
also
forming
there.
Everything
else
is
the
new
legacy
to
which
people
go.
A
A
To
which
we
say
what
about
containers?
Well,
that's
the
entire
stack.
The
stuff
at
the
bottom
becomes
a
list
visible,
which
basically
means
we
we
don't
care
I'm.
Sorry,
you
need
to
move
up
the
stack,
that's
where
the
real
battle
is
at
the
moment,
there's
a
real
danger
that
we
win
the
battle
at
the
lower
end,
stuff
and
Amazon
wins
the
way
they
win.
The
warm
we
lose
the
war
home,
Amazon
70%
of
the
service
market.
People
are
pretty
much
estimating
it's
dominating
in
that
space.
I
know
Kelsey
and
others
have
talked
about
it.
A
We
need
to
move
up
that
stack,
so
very
quick,
summary
strategy.
It's
a
cycle!
It's
really
important
to
understand
the
landscape.
It's
an
iterative
process.
It's
really
also
important
to
act
and
it
the
entire
talk.
It
was
summarized
by
one
phrase
by
Dench
helping
which
is
crossing
the
river
by
feeling
the
stones,
purpose
and
direction.
Take
small
steps
adapt
along
the
way
and
that
point
I'll
say
thank
you.