►
From YouTube: Consensus Forecasting Group (12-14-22)
Description
No description was provided for this meeting.
If this is YOUR meeting, an easy way to fix this is to add a description to your video, wherever mtngs.io found it (probably YouTube).
A
B
Well,
I
thought
I'd
start
off
with
a
nerdy
title
slide:
it's
it's
entitled:
CFG,
krs-48115
print,
two
estimates
and-
and
those
are
the
estimates
that
are
outside
of
our
normal
odd
numbered
year
to
estimates
where
we
have
an
August
October
December.
You
know
cycle
of
estimates
that
that
particular
statute
allows
the
lrc
the
organization
of
the
lrc
or
the
state
budget
director
to
request
a
revision
to
to
the
official
estimates,
and
in
this
case
the
state
budget
director
has
determined
that
a
general
fund
or
vision
is
needed.
B
So
we
will
attempt
to
come
to
a
consensus
on
that
today.
In
the
revised
estimates
for
fiscal
23
and
fiscal
24,
which
is
what
was
asked
for
by
the
state
budget
director,
those
shall
become
the
official
Revenue
estimates
going
forward
until
acted
upon
by
the
general
assembly.
B
The
fiscal
20
part
of
the
reason
we're
together
is
that
fiscal
22
revenues
came
in
945.4
million
ahead
of
the
official
estimates.
B
So
essentially
you
know
we
do
biennial
budget
estimates.
The
the
fiscal
22
was
our
base
year
for
the
biennial
budget
estimates
and
the
base
year
was
off
by
945.4.
B
B
Last
December
for
for
23
and
24
and
growth
year
to
date
is
6.4
percent,
which
is
stronger
than
than
projected.
So
you
know
we're
we're
ahead
of
the
game
in
this
year
in
terms
of
growth
and
we're
also
ahead
in
terms
of
the
absolute
level
that
we're
we're
jumping
off.
So
that's
one
of
the
reasons
we're
request
that
the
state
budget
director's
request
in
a
new
estimate.
B
I
want
to
talk
just
a
little
bit
on
this
slide
about
the
945.4.
You
can
see
the
full
year
actual
numbers,
and
then
you
can
see
the
official
estimates
on
the
the
right
set
of
columns
and
you
can
see
we
have
dollar
differences
and
percent
differences.
B
I
want
to
talk
this
real
briefly
about
two
of
the
taxes,
the
individual
income
tax
and
the.
What
I
call
the
major
business
taxes
corporate
now
LT
on
the
individual.
B
You
know
we
grew
17.6
percent,
which
is
unheard
of
growth
in
the
individual
income
tax,
I'll
just
say:
fiscal
21.
What
was
was
a
good
year.
We
grew
7.9
percent,
so
we
were
coming
off.
Fiscal
22
was
coming
off
a
a
a
pretty
good
year.
7.9
percent
the
only
year
higher
in
the
recent.
B
What
happened
was
in?
We
had
a
what
I
call
an
April
surprise.
That's
a
you
know:
I
go
to
revenue,
estimating
conferences
and
and
every
every
state
talks
about
the
April
surprise,
and
that
that
refers
to
how
your
declaration
payments
are
due
in
April
and
your
net
returns.
People
have
to
file
their
final
returns
in
April
by
April
15th,
unless
they
do
an
extension
and
if
you
get
a
big
up
or
down
surprise
it's
it's
called
the
April
surprise.
B
So
we
had
one
to
the
tune
of
340
million
dollars
over
21,
which
was
again
a
really
a
really
pretty
strong
year
for
decoration
payments
and
net
returns.
So,
in
fact,
if
you
look
at
fiscal
22
compared
to
fiscal
21,
we
exceeded
the
sum
of
declarations
and
net
returns
by
400
million
dollars.
B
So
you
look
at
the
ear
the
the
forecasting
difference
of
622.8,
400
million
of
that
is
net
returns
and
declarations
in
excess
of
what
they
were
in
21.
and
we
thought
21
was
an
aberration
on
the
high
side,
when
we
did
the
estimates
last
December.
B
Appears
to
be
a
a
fairly
sizable
difference
from
from
estimated,
but
a
lot
of
it's
due
to
to
the
parts
of
the
withholding
forecasts
in
general
was
pretty
decent.
The
the
where,
where
the
the
problem
was
was
declarations
and
net
returns
on
the
corporate,
the
the
forecasting
difference
from
actual
was
216.1
on
a
percentage
basis.
It
was
a
higher
higher
myth
than
the
individual,
but
there
again
we
we
we
looked
at
fiscal
21.
B
We
we
met
in
December,
we
we
we
looked
at
the
the
second
half
of
fiscal
21,
which
was
in
the
bank
when
we
met
last
time.
The
third
quarter
grew
146.6
and
the
fourth
quarter
grew
51.6
percent.
B
We
at
the
time
thought
those
were
pretty
high
hurdles
not
to
overuse
that
metaphor,
but
we
did
have
a
strong
second
half
of
the
year
in
fiscal
21,
so
we
weren't
calling
for
a
lot
of
growth
in
the
second
half
of
fiscal
22,
because
we
we
met
right
in
December,
so
the
second
half
of
fiscal
22
was
just
days
away
from
when
we
met
and
the
third
quarter
last
year
in
fiscal
22
came
in
at
30.1
and
the
fourth
quarter
came
in
at
24.9
off
those
big
off
those
big
quarters
the
previous
year.
B
So
it
was
just
one
of
those
things
that,
as
soon
as
we
put
the
estimate
in
the
the
third
quarter
came
in
really
strong
on
the
fourth
quarter
came
in
really
strong
and
we,
you
know
we
grew
fiscal
21
grew
38.1
percent
in
corporate
and
at
the
time
we
thought
that
you
know
that
that
was
a
record
by
a
long
shot
in
corporate
and
we
just
well.
B
We
we
were
responding
to
that
and
thinking
the
second
half
would
be
a
little
harder
to
to
get
growth
in.
So
that
explains
the
two
most
of
the
money
that
let's
face,
it
is
in
corporate
Earth
and
business
taxes,
individual
taxes
and
sales
tax.
B
B
We
were
forecasting
upper
Eights
on
the
sales
tax
which
I
thought
had
us
covered
because
I
didn't
want
to
chase
it
up
and-
and
we
came
in
at
11.0,
so
we
had
a
12
and
11,
which
is
really
strong
on
sale.
Stacks.
B
We
got
a
little,
oh
thank
you
Michael.
The
next
slide
talks
about
annual
general
fund
growth.
Since
fiscal
10..
You
can
see
that
you
know
the
last
two
years:
fiscal
21,
10.9
fiscal,
22,
14.6
percent.
B
We
those
are
the
highest
growth
years
since
the
early
90s,
when
we
did
the
care
reforms
and
You
Know
It.
When
we
had
the
10.9
the
14.6
was.
You
know
the
10.9
included
a
lot
of
federal
stimulus
and
at
the
time
we
were
saying
you
know
that's
going
to
be
hard
to
replace
that
Federal
stimulus
money
in
fiscal
21,
but
we
we,
the
tax
revenues
kept
coming
in.
B
We
we
grew
by
14.6
percent,
but
both
of
those
double-digit
general
fund
Revenue
growths
are
historically
very
high
that
there's
no
comparison
to
them.
Unless
you
go
back
to
the
early
90s.
B
Okay,
gotta
live
with
that,
so
the
the
next
slide
is
is
just
quarterly
quarterly
growth
and
and
I.
Don't
need
to
belabor
this
too
much
because
I've
already
showed
you.
The
union
talk
through
the
air
in
fiscal
22,
but,
as
you
can
see,
we've
had
some
really
high
quarters
and,
and
they
bounced
around
a
little
bit
the.
B
B
If
you
take
that
that
legal
settlement
out
the
first
quarter,
that
20
would
have
went
down
to
12.1
and
and
correspondingly
the
3.8
that
you
see
for
the
first
quarter
of
fiscal
23,
the
the
purple
bar
at
the
end,
that
would
have
been
11.1
percent
growth
had
it
not
been
for
the
legal
settlement
because
the
you
know
we
we
had
to
overcome
that
in
fiscal
23
to
to
show
growth,
and
we
did
I
was
surprised.
B
B
It's
not
quite
as
jumpy
as
it
may
seem
that
that
24.8
percent
quarter
in
the
fourth
quarter,
fiscal
21
that
was
that
that
quarter
alone
was
was
the
one
that
that
I
think
led
to
to
some
of
the
forecasting
here
and
that
we
did
in
December
last
year.
We
just
it
was.
B
It
was
such
an
such
a
big
difference
from
from
usual
that
that
we
didn't,
we
didn't
think
we
could
top
that
with
a
16.9
the
following
year,
which
we
did
and
a
lot
of
the
forecasting
year
crept
off
at
the
end
of
the
fiscal
year
and
in
the
fourth
quarter.
Due
to
that
16.9.
B
With
that
in
mind,
I
want
to
just
briefly
go
over.
What's
happened
year
to
date
in
fiscal
23.,
again
we
would
have
been
11.1
percent
in
the
first
quarter.
First
quarter
grew
3.8
percent.
We
would
have
been
11.1
without
the
settlement.
The
the
the
big
taxes
did.
What
they're
supposed
to
do?
They
grew.
They
grew
well.
Our
press
releases
got
a
little
monotonous
because
it
was
growth
in
the
in
the
big
three
taxes
and
and
basically
flat
in
in
the
other
taxes.
B
Add
to
that
October
and
November
receipts
that
that
now
on
the
October
and
November
receipts
they're,
not
officially
in
these
estimates
that
we
prepared
we
we
you
know.
Sometimes
we
would.
We
would
wait
for
October
and
November
receipts,
do
a
short-term
forecasting
of
the
month
of
December
and
then
consider
when
we
met
in
December.
We
consider
the
the
second
quarter
an
actual
quarter
in
the
revenue
models.
We
did
not
do
that
this
time,
but
I'm
just
showing
you
October
and
November,
so
that
you
can
have
the
context.
October
was
great.
B
15.2
percent
sales
was
up
9.7,
which
is
not
as
high
as
the
first
quarter,
but
still
strong
growth,
the
individual
income
tax
grew
23.6
percent
and
the
major
business
taxes
fell.
28
in
October
the
the
October
was
high
on
individual
income
tax.
We
we
surmised,
because
you
know
when
you
file
that
automatic
extension
that
you
can
claim
if
you
file
the
form
the
six
months
ends
in
in
October.
B
So
we
got
a
lot
of
pay
returns
that
came
in
in
October
from
the
automatic
extension
I
know.
The
extension
is
not
an
extension
to
pay,
but
we
got
a
lot
of
pay
returns
in
October
so
that
that
that's
what
one
of
the
things
that
pushed
the
individual
income
tax
up
in
in
October
November
fell
off
the
pace
of
15.2,
but
we
still
grew
by
5.3
percent.
The
sales
tax
was
softer
yet
than
October.
B
Was
up
just
0.2
percent,
and
that
was
because
we
were
paying
refunds
from
the
October
extensions.
The
pays
come
in
immediately
and
it
takes
a
little
while
to
process
the
refund,
so
we
had
decent
growth
and
withholding
in
November,
but
the
net
returns
were
negative
in
in
in
in
November
I'm.
Sorry
November,
the
cumulative
growth
through
the
first
five
months
of
the
year,
6.4
percent,
which
is
solid
growth
and
again
not
to
keep
talking
about
that
settlement.
B
But
if
the
settlement
wasn't
there,
we
would
have
had
10.8
percent
what
I
call
economic
growth.
So
far,
this
fiscal
year
through
five
months.
B
At
risk
of
making
the
same
mistake
over
and
over
I
I
will
say
that
there
are
some
challenges
in
the
second
half
of
the
year.
There's
two
sets
of
challenges,
one
is,
is
the
tax
law
changes
that
were
made
and
the
other
is
some
real
receipts
headwind
in
the
fourth
quarter
of
fiscal
23,
but
in
terms
of
the
tax
law,
changes.
B
We
we,
the
two
2022
session,
was
one
of
those
years
that
that
we'll
remember
for
a
while,
because
we
passed
on
the
individual
income
tax.
We
we
passed
a
rate
reduction
with
a
chance
for
future
rate
reductions
which
I'll
talk
about
on
the
next
slide,
but
so
we
had
in
fiscal
23
the
the
impact
from
hospital
8
and
the
other
small
bills.
That
passed
was
291.5
Million
for
fiscal
23
and
that's
all
going
to
take
place
in
the
second
half
of
the
year.
B
You
know
the
rate
reduction
happens,
beginning
1
123,
so
most
of
that
291
is
the
rate
reduction.
So
we
that's
going
to
be
definite
headwind
for
us
for
Revenue
growth
in
the
second
half,
the
the
291.5
on
a
general
fund
basis
is
partially
offset
by
43.9
million
increase
in
the
sales
tax
and
that's
a
five-month
impact,
because
most
of
the
Law
changes
were
1
123
and
sales
tax,
remitted
or
collected
I,
guess
by
by
retailers
in
January,
comes
in
as
February
receipt.
B
So
a
1,
123,
effective
date
gives
you
five
months
of
sales.
Tax
receipts
so
and
I
have
a
slide
on
that
and
then
the
total
general
fund
impact
was
negative,
257.7
million
so
that
that's
going
to
be
money
that
that
that
that
creates
headwind
for
the
second
half
of
the
year
in
in
terms
of
receipt,
headwind.