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From YouTube: Consensus Forecasting Group (10-14-21)
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A
Do
you
need
to
do
some
roll
call,
or
do
you
have
a
list
of
who's
here?
No,
I
think
we're
good
to
go.
So
I
think
whenever
greg
is
ready,
okay,.
C
A
C
B
Are
they
displayed
now?
Yes,
yes!
Well,
thank
you
good
morning
and
thank
you
for
attending
today,
we're
in
the
process
of
revising
the
fiscal
22
current
year
estimate,
plus
the
2324
biennium
by
statute.
These
are
called
the
preliminary
estimates
and
they're
due
by
october.
15Th
pursuant
to
statute
just
want
to
remind
everybody
that
today
is
not
an
official
revision
to
the
revenue
estimates.
B
It's
it's
it's
their
preliminary
estimates.
The
official
estimates
will
be
done
hopefully
in
december,
pursuant
to
statute
as
well.
B
Today,
our
focus
is
kind
of
is,
for
the
most
part
going
to
be
on
changes
from
august
to
october.
You
know
what
has
changed
and
and
really,
let
me
advance
my
slide
here.
B
Really,
what
has
changed
from
the
first
quarters
is
two
things.
The
the
biggest
thing
in
terms
of
moving
the
numbers
was
the
first
quarter.
Receipts
were
added
to
the
history
of
our
dependent
variables
and
in
some
taxes
that
made
a
profound
impact
and
others
not
as
much
as
maybe
but
but
certainly
for
sales
and
corporate
in
in
the
ubiquitous
other
category,
the
first
quarter
receipts
were
were
very
instrumental
in
changing
those
numbers
and-
and
secondly,
we
updated
the
academic
outlook
from
ihs
market.
B
In
august
we
used
the
july
economic
outlook
so
that
we
could
get
our
materials
ready
for
august
in
october.
We're
using
the
september
economic
outlook
october
is
available
now,
but
we
we
had
deadlines
for
the
presentation
materials
and
we
weren't
able
to
incorporate
it.
So
that's
what's
changed.
B
The
the
impact
on
the
first
quarter
was
pretty
dramatic
on
on
on
first
quarter
receipts,
the
general
fund
grew
by
35
percent
in
september
and
20
in
the
first
quarter.
B
The
35
in
september
was
heavily
influenced
by
a
one-time
cash
inflow
of
25
mi
225
million
dollars
pursuant
to
a
legal
sediment
settlement
with
with
the
flutter
entertainment,
which
is
the
parent
company
of
pokerstars,
you've,
probably
heard
of
that
pending
action,
that's
been
in
the
works
for
quite
some
time
and
we
finally
got
got
got
our
money,
the
225
million
dollars.
B
B
B
So
we
had
a
really
nice
quarter
of
12.1
percent
growth
and
the
the
main
amount
of
growth
came
in
in
our
biggest
three
taxes,
the
the
sales
tax
grew
10.8
percent
or
in
september,
and
then
9.9
percent.
In
the
first
quarter,
the
individual
income
tax
grew
7.6
in
september
and
6.5
for
the
first
quarter
and
business
taxes
grew
55.8
in
september
and
76
percent
for
the
first
quarter,
so
profound
growth
in
in
business
taxes.
B
I
I
I
think
you
all
are
on
the
list
of
of
the
receipts
report
getting
the
the
press
releases
and
you
can
see
if
you,
if
you
had
a
chance
to
look
at
the
press,
release
what
we
had
to
say
about
it.
But,
generally
speaking,
you
know
it
was
good
for
the
commonwealth
to
get
the
legal
settlement.
But
we
were
equally
happy
with
the
with
the
with
the
14.8
percent
and
the
underlying
taxes
in
in
the
in
the
general
fund.
B
In
terms
of
the
road
fund,
we
had
a
nice
month,
five
percent
in
september
and
three
and
a
half
percent
in
the
first
quarter.
B
Motor
fuels
grew
5.8
percent,
which
is
a
really
good
growth
in
fuels
and
4.9
for
the
first
quarter
and
motor
vehicle
usage
grew
4.8
in
september
and
3.8
percent
in
the
first
quarter.
So
good
growth
in
in
84
percent
of
our
road
fund,
which
is
fuels
and
usage.
B
Just
a
few
highlights
sales,
individual
and
business
taxes
combined
business
taxes
are
89.8
of
total
tax
receipts
in
the
first
quarter
notice.
I
said
tax
receipts
instead
of
general
fund
revenues
because
I
wanted
to
not
get
the
settlement.
Money
mixed
in
so
89.8
percent
of
tax
receipts
are
from
the
big
three
taxes
collectively
that
set
of
taxes
grew
12.7
percent
in
the
first
quarter,
compared
to
12.3
percent
and
overall
growth
in
in
tax
receipts.
B
The
the
non-big
three
taxes,
the
the
remaining
10.2
percent
of
the
general
fund,
grew
at
a
very
respectable
8.5,
collectively
through
the
first
quarter.
So
no
taxes
were
sort
of
left
behind
in
in
the
first
quarter.
B
This
this
graph
is
a
little
bit
out
of
place.
I'm
going
to
talk
a
little
bit
more
about
this
a
little
bit
later
in
the
presentation,
so
I'm
not
going
to
talk
much
now,
but
what
I'm?
What
I
was
trying
to
convey
in
in
this
is
that
if
you
look
at
the
the
blue
columns,
which
are
fiscal
21,
you
can
see
that
the
growth
in
fiscal
21
was
a
little
bit
back
loaded,
I'm
what
I
what
I
posted
was
nominal
growth.
B
So
you
can
see
that
I,
I
kind
of
made
this
point
in
august
that
the
second
half
of
the
year
really
took
off
in
terms
of
nominal
growth
and
when
we
go
through
the
the
tax
part
of
the
presentation.
B
B
That's
really
all
I
had
just
to
summarize
we,
these
are
not
after
we
go
through
the
economic
slides
and
get
to
the
revenue
slides
we're
not
these
won't
be
official
revisions.
They'll
just
be
another
set
of
data
for
the
three
branches,
the
government
to
look
at
as
they
prepare
budgets,
but
the
official,
the
official
run
will
be
the
next
meeting
of
the
cfg.
A
C
Well,
the
key
difference
is
what
has
changed
since
ihs
market,
since
we
presented
their
forecast
last
time
is
the
revision
downward
of
real
gdp
estimates.
This
is
due
to
the
ongoing
delta
variant,
spreading
and
reducing
consumer
activity
and,
of
course,
just
general
concerns.
Some
in
some
look.
C
The
inflation
forecast
compared
to
last
time
has
stabilized
the
headline.
Pce
inflation
measures
are
held
constant
at
2.1
percent
for
both
fiscal
years,
23
and
24,
and
they
believe
that
most
things
are
starting
to
level
out
due
to
the
recovering
supply
issues
concerning
food
and
other
energy
products,
and
that
the
long
run
inflation
rate
will
be
near
the
fed's
target
of
two
percent
and
for
the
first
time
the
infrastructure,
investment
and
jobs
act
is
being
included.
However,
the
impact
of
that
is
quite
muted.
C
In
the
near
term,
the
vast
majority
of
that
was
already
included
in
prior
forecasts
due
to
the
authorization
spending
on
a
lot
of
the
road
fund
type
projects,
and
so
the
bulk
of
the
impact
of
that
act
will
not
be
until
approximately
fiscal,
25
and
26
so
outside
the
range
of
our
current
forecast.
C
Let's
see
if
we
can
there,
we
go
okay,
so
what's
in
the
control
scenario,
so
weighted
fifty
percent
gdp
growth
is
forecasted
to
rise,
5.1
and
3.4
respectively.
That
is
a
slight
reduction
in
the
current
year
and
a
shift
out
to
the
out
year
again
focusing
on
that
inventory,
building
investments
that
are
being
made
that
are
going
to
be
delayed
because
of
the
supply
chain
issues.
C
So
again,
most
of
the
growth
that
is
being
taken
out
of
fiscal
22
is
being
assumed
to
shift
forward
into
fiscal
23..
The
assumption
will
be
the
federal
fund.
The
federal
funds
rate
will
not
change,
be
held
near
zero
through
at
least
the
first
quarter
of
fiscal
23,
but
with
asset
purchases
tapering
over
the
next
12
months,
and
they
assume
that
brent
oil
prices
are
expected
to
be
in
the
69
and
67
range
respectively.
C
Now,
of
course,
we've
seen
what's
happened
with
oil
prices
recently,
so
we
know
this
is
slightly
below
where
current
markets
are
experiencing
disruptions
on
the
world
market
for
oil.
In
the
optimistic
scenario,
stronger
gdp,
growth
of
6.7
and
4.5
percent.
C
The
flip
side
of
that,
of
course,
is
the
pessimistic
scenario.
Now
it's
only
weighted
at
30
percent,
but
it
does
assume
that
gdp
would
have
rather
rather
tepid
growth
compared
to
the
very
high
growth
that's
been
assumed
in
the
previous
control
scenarios,
and
certainly
relative
to
august.
C
So
in
the
case
of
the
individual
variables
I'll
go
through
these
very
quickly
because
again
we're
going
to
focus
mostly
on
the
differences
you
know
so
in
real
gdp.
You
can
see
by
the
slope
of
the
lines
and
even
in
the
control
forecast
that
growth
is
being
shifted
out
into
the
out
years
compared
to
what
was
presented
last
time.
Strong
growth
in
the
optimistic
side
and
the
pessimistic
is
a
relatively
tepid
continued
growth.
So
here,
specifically,
is
the
slides
where
we
show
august
will
be
in
red
and
it
will
be
the
column
to
your
left.
C
So
you
can
see
that
we
have
a
lot
of
of
shifting
of
what
will
be
happening
as
we
go
out,
and
that's
specifically,
you
can
see
here
in
compared
to
august
slightly
reduced
growth
current
again
shifting
it
out
into
2023
slightly
more
growth
and
then
again,
all
forecasts
have
it
declining
in
24,
but
less
decline
in
the
current
forecast
coming
off
of
23.
C
C
C
So
then,
comparing
that
to
where
we
are,
we
see
a
slight
reduction
in
fiscal
22
but
again
much
like
some
of
the
other
variables,
a
shift
in
growth
out
to
23
and
24
at
6.1
and
5.2
percent,
respectively,
real
consumer
spending
and
there's
no
doubt
that
we
know
that
ihs
market
really
focuses
on
consumer
spending
being
the
real
driver
for
what
is
going
to
help
us
move
past
the
whole
cobit
experience
and
keep
the
economy
on
track,
and
so
you
can
see
that
strong
growth
in
the
optimistic
forecast.
C
The
control
is
pretty
much
a
steady
state,
continuance
of
the
long-term
trend
but
again
pessimistic
dipping
down
and
then
recovering,
and
you
can
see
that
again
as
we
narrow
in
on
the
differences
between
what
was
presented
in
august
versus
now
so
again,
a
pullback
in
the
current
year
still
continuing
to
have
less
growth
in
what
was
presented
in
23
for
fiscal
23
compared
to
what
was
presented
in
august
3
versus
4.1,
but
then
growing
in
the
out
year.
A
3
increase
for
fiscal
24
versus
the
2.6
percent.
That
was
presented
last
time.
C
We
don't
put
the
control
optimistic,
pessimistic
line
for
the
chain
price
index,
but
again,
given
the
discussions
of
inflation
that
are
certainly
everywhere
in
both
the
popular
press
and,
of
course,
the
business
and
economic
press.
We
wanted
to
show
the
different
assumptions
now.
This
is
the
assumed
growth
rate
in
the
chain
price
index
for
the
control,
optimistic
and
pessimistic
scenario.
F
C
C
This
time
it's
2.1
percent
in
each
of
the
out
years,
so
not
as
much
of
a
difference
in
the
control
forecast
compared
to
what
was
presented
in
august,
a
consumption
of
gasoline
and
oil
again
about
what
you
would
expect
strong,
relatively
strong
consumption
and
the
optimistic
as
compared
to
the
control
and
then
again
a
drop-off
in
the
pessimistic
scenario
compared
to
last
time,
though,
extremely
strong
growth
in
the
current
year,
27.4
now,
of
course,
this
is
nominal
consumption.
This
is
not
gallonage.
This
is
price
paid,
so
27.4
and
twenty
two
versus
eighteen
point:
nine
percent.
C
If
you
can't
make
them,
you
can't
sell
them
so
there's
a
lot
of
pressure
to
continue
to
work
through
the
supply
issues,
so
that
light
vehicle
sales
can
continue
their
rapid
growth
that
we've
seen
since
cobit,
and
you
can
see
the
optimistic,
very
strong
growth
in
the
optimistic
forecast
versus
a
significant
decline
relative
in
terms
of
growth
rates
in
the
pessimistic
scenario.
C
So,
specifically,
last
time
we
were
expecting
a
1.9
percent
growth
in
the
current
fiscal
year
and
that
is
now
changed
to
a
4.6
decline
and
again
much
like
the
gdp.
It's
this
in
an
extreme
measure
now,
instead
of
having
the
slight
pullback
from
1.9
to
1.2,
which
was
presented
last
time
now
we're
talking
about
a
4.6
decline
in
the
current
fiscal
year
and
a
very
strong
8.1
percent
growth
in
fiscal
23,
so
again
supply
chain
issues
pushing
out
economic
activity
that
was
expected
to
occur.
C
exports
of
good
and
services,
not
a
lot
of
difference.
Obviously,
between
the
control.
Optimistic
and
pessimistic
when
you
compare
the
actual
forecast,
though
you
can
see
the
percentages
again,
pull
back
in
22
growth
shifted
to
the
out
years,
8
and
six
point
five
percent,
respectively
in
23
and
24
stronger
growth
than
was
presented
in
august
and
specifically
real
exports
of
motor
vehicle
parts.
A
similar
tail.
C
You
can
see
that
again,
pull
back
in
the
current
year,
12.7
percent
versus
a
17.5
percent
presented
in
august
again
more
growth
in
23
and
then
less
of
a
decline
in
24
as
a
0.7
versus
2.4
pullback,
which
was
presented
in
august
now.
I
know
I
went
through
all
those
rather
quickly,
but
again
we're
trying
to
focus
mostly
on
the
differences
between
the
two.
C
Approximately
the
second
week
of
the
month,
so
this
would
have
been
released
the
second
week
of
september,
I'm
sure,
of
course,
the
work
that
they
do
that
goes
into
it
is
during
the
month
of
august,
for
them
to
be
able
to
make
their
date,
but
you're
you're
right,
I
hate
to
say
we're
driving
by
looking
through
the
rear
view
mirror.
But
in
many
cases
the
ihs
market
forecast
that
we
use
to
build.
C
Our
internal
forecasts
is
going
to
be
delayed
by
approximately
four
to
five
weeks
in
terms
of
what
we're
experiencing
now
and
you're
absolutely
correct.
I
mean
think
about
the
news
we
just
got
this
week
on
the
inflation
numbers,
the
jolts
numbers.
It
was
quite
a
jolt
to
hear
that
four
million
people
decided
to
quit
from
their
jobs.
That's
an
all-time
record.
C
Thank
you.
Well,
specifically,
of
course
we
take
the
ihs
market,
combine
it
with
the
kentucky
data
and
build
the
kentucky
economic
outlook,
and
so
what
are
the
key
differences
in
the
current
forecast?
Well,
the
current
fiscal
year.
Employment
growth
estimate
has
declined
the
ihs
market,
the
existing
conditions
in
kentucky,
so
the
largest
impact
for
this
is
in
manufacturing
employment,
which
is
not
surprising
that
everything
that
we've
talked
about
and
seen
at
the
national
level
supply
chain
issues
that
is
clearly
going
to
impact
the
manufacturing
employment
in
kentucky.
C
So
we
have
a
decline
to
2.9
percent
from
our
previous
estimate
of
3.9
percent,
so
at
percent
overall
decline
in
the
estimated
growth
in
manufacturing
employment
in
the
current
fiscal
year
and
again
due
to
the
supply
chain
issues.
But
much
like
the
we've
talked
about
with
the
national
issues.
C
Estimates
increase
we've
seen
you
know
historically
low
labor
force
participation
rates
like
I
would
just
mention
the
jolts
data
we've
seen
a
lot
of
people
moving
around
finding
better
employment,
moving
away
from
jobs
which
have
more
variation
in
the
income
such
as
restaurants
and
hospitality,
businesses
moving
towards
firms
like
amazon
and
other
more,
I
shouldn't
say
state.
Well,
that's
not
the
right
word:
jobs
have
more
consistent
hours
that
don't
require
as
many
fluctuations
or
need
for
child
care
at
last
minute
notifications.
C
So
again,
the
underlying
forecast
that
goes
into
our
wage
and
salaries
forecast,
the
ihs
market
forecast
specifically,
is
assuming.
It
will
be
two
more
years
before
we
get
to
pre-pandemic
levels
of
labor
force
participation,
there's
been
a
lot
of
concern
about
where
we
are
in
labor
force
participation
in
the
commonwealth.
C
I
think,
however,
many
people
who
are
concerned
about
the
current
number
are
unaware
of
the
historical
number.
I
know
I've
heard
legislative
members
express
surprise,
but
I
think
they
may
not
be
aware
of
that.
We
have
been
in
a
long-term
range
of
low
60
percent
labor
force
participation,
so
the
current.
A
C
50S
rate
is,
is
certainly
low,
but
not
as
low
as
I
think,
they're
comparing
because
we're
certainly
never
going
to
be
in
the
70
75
percent
labor
force
petition
participation
rate,
so
here's
the
kentucky
non-farm
employment
again
much
like
the
national
levels.
You
know
continued
recovery
in
the
control
forecast,
strong
growth
and
the
optimistic
as
judged
by
the
slope
of
that
line
and
relatively
tepid
growth
in
the
pestimistic
forecast
compared
to
the
united
states
as
a
whole.
C
But
as
we
look
at
the
specific
numbers,
we
are
stronger
than
the
us
as
a
whole
2.9
for
fiscal
22
versus
a
national
2.1
percent
and
the
biggest
surprise
of
all
0.8
growth,
forecasted
in
2024
versus
a
pullback
on
the
national
numbers
as
a
whole
and
compared
to
last
time
again
pullback
in
the
current
year,
fiscal
22
at
2.9
percent,
but
stronger
growth,
2.3
and
0.8
percent.
In
the
out
year
versus
the
relatively
tepid
growth
in
23
and
the
actual
pullback.
We
had
forecasted
in
august
of
0.1
percent
personal
income.
Much
like
the
national
numbers.
C
We've
had
those
large
spikes
due
to
the
coveted
relief
payments
and
then
continued
relatively
consistent
growth
in
the
out
years.
Obviously,
slower
growth
forecasted
in
the
pessimistic
forecast.
C
Again
in
this
situation,
we
are
less
than
or
expected
to
have
lower
growth
in
the
us
as
a
whole,
0.3
in
the
current
year
versus
0.8
for
the
national
and
then
3.5
and
4.2
percent
respectively,
as
opposed
to
the
estimated
numbers
for
the
national
personal
income,
growth,
wages
and
salaries
similar
to
income,
the
control
and
optimistic,
very
similar
in
the
forecast,
but
definitely
a
pullback
in
the
growth
rate
assumed
for
the
pessimistic
forecast.
A
C
In
this
case,
once
again,
we
are
less
than
what
is
being
forecasted
in
the
out
years
for
the
u.s
as
a
whole,
slightly
better
than
the
national
estimate
in
the
control
forecast
in
the
current
year,
8.3
versus
8.2
percent,
but
then
in
the
out
years,
slower
growth
compared
to
what
was
presented
last
time
again.
That
shift
doing
a
little
better
in
the
current,
but
then
more
growth
going
out
in
the
future
on
wages
and
salaries,
5.2
and
23,
and
4.1
percent
and
24
versus
what
was
presented
in
august.
C
At
4.5
and
3.6
transfer
payments
always
been
a
big
part
of
the
kentucky
economy,
and
certainly
that
is
the
case
during
the
covet.
C
Significant
increase
in
kentucky
transfer
payments
and
you
can
see
compared
to
what
was
presented
last
time,
less
of
a
decrease
in
the
current
year,
declining
13.5
percent
off
of
the
enormous
growth
in
21
for
transfer
payments.
That
is
better
than
the
15.7
percent.
That
was
forecasted
in
august
and
then
a
relatively
slight
decline
of
0.4
versus
the
1
1.7
growth.
That
was
forecasted
in
august
for
23
and
then
a
slight
change
in
the
out
year
of
24
at
3.7
versus
3.9
percent.
C
E
Michael,
I
have
one
question.
Yes,
and
I
don't
know
if
this
is
the
model
or
the
data
again,
so
I
usually
ask
this
almost
every
time
I
think
maybe
I'm
just
forgetting
almost
every
time.
So
I
noticed
on
like
the
kentucky
wages
in
income.
It
seems
like
one
of
the
few
graphs
that,
if
you
you
know
absent
covet,
if
you
drew
like
a
trend
line,
the
wages
and
income
like
look
like
they
inflict
up,
but
almost
everything
else
looks
like
it.
Inflects
down,
you
know,
manufacturing
employment
and
different
things.
E
C
Like
that,
I
would
have
to
say
the
strongest
reason
is
that
shift.
That's
that
is
assumed
in
the
model
that
there
is
going
to
be
a
significant
increase
in
wages
and
salaries
relatively
strength
of
labor,
but
again
pulling
away
from
the
current
and
moving
out,
especially
in
manufacturing,
so
assuming
that
the
wages
and
activity
are
associated
with
that
shift
that
do
the
supplies
constraints.
C
We've
had
this
a
forecasted
pullback,
but
then
strong
growth
going
out
and
the
idea
being
that
as
we
recover
and
they
go
to
make
up
time,
wages
and
certainly
hours
of
work
will
be
growing
significantly
in
the
out
years
to
make
up
for
that
pullback.
In
the
current.
It
would
be
my
understanding
of
of
what
ihs
market
and
therefore,
as
that,
fills
into
the
kentucky
data,
how
it
builds
into
our
current
model.
E
Because
I
didn't
know
if
it
was
back
to
your
labor
force,
participation,
we're
lower
lots
of
places
are
lower.
We
are
and
we're
lower.
So
I
don't
know
if
it's
getting
back
to
normal
over
the
next
few
years.
If
that's,
why?
It's
going
up,
I'm
just
surprised
that
kentucky
is
looking
like
it's
going
to
inflict
up
in
wages
and
income,
and
I
only
ask
because
I
think
that's
like
what
close
to
half
or
so
of
our
revenue
that
we
get.
So
I
just
want
to
make
sure
that
there's
not
something
I'm
missing.
C
No,
and
and
again
I
think
a
lot
of
it
has
been
this
movement.
This
shift
from
the
more
volatile
areas
like
hospitality
and
certainly
restaurant
and
hospitality,
as
people
say,
I
can
guarantee
I'm
going
to
start
at
15
an
hour
at
amazon.
C
You
know
I'll
have
more
of
a
set
schedule
will
be
less
fluctuation,
so
I
can
more
easily
dial
in
my
child
care
know
what
I
need
versus
the
vagaries
of
you
know.
Is
this
restaurant
going
to
be
open?
You
know,
and
I
know,
there's
a
lot
of
anecdotal
evidence
of
this.
Whether
it's
people
saying
I
went
to
the
local
panera.
I
can't
believe
it's
closed.
You
know
all
they're
doing
is
drive
through.
C
C
They
receive
the
training
and
then
they
shop
around
for
a
better
deal
who's
going
to
give
me
better
wages
based
on
what
I've
learned,
so
I
coast
through
the
training,
and
then
I
ghost
the
firm
and,
of
course,
as
a
former
labor
economics
teacher,
I
always
loved
teaching
about
specific
versus
general
human
capital
attainment,
and
I
thought
well
that's
pretty
tricky
for
someone
to
come
in,
learn
a
new
skill
and
then
ghost
the
employer
is.
They
can
immediately
turn
around
and
say.
C
I
know
how
to
do
this
task
who's
going
to
pay
me
the
most
for
this
now.
I
assume
that
much
like
everything
in
the
beige
book
that
is
more
anecdotal
than
a
general
trend,
but
as
we
always
joke,
the
plural
of
anecdote
is
data,
and
so
I
do.
I
do
think
the
underlying
model
is
assuming
that
you
know
the
folks
that
are
remaining
in
the
labor
force.
C
We've
seen
a
lot
of
people
taking
retirement
a
lot
of
people
moving
up
decisions
to
exit
labor
force,
and
I
think
the
assumption
would
be
the
underlying
folks
that
remain
in
the
labor
force
as
long
as
they
can
get
schools
open.
So
they
have
child
care,
taken
care
of
either
directly
or
through
the
school
system,
and
we
can
get
past
coven
and
a
lot
of
the
restrictions.
I
think
people
are
trying
to
move
towards
a
more
stable
employment
situation
and
in
many
cases
that
is
associated
with
an
increase
in
wages.
C
C
So
clearly,
employers
are
responding
by
trying
to
maintain
that
workforce
and
certainly
not
have
people
leave,
because
we
all
know
that
turnover
for
any
business
is
expensive,
but
anything
that
involves
training
is
even
more
so
so
so
I
think
all
of
that
is
being
built
in,
and
that
is
what
is
being
assumed
going
out.
I
know
dr
bollinger
and
I
had
been
speaking
about.
C
I
think
it
was
chris
and
I
we're
speaking
about
the
wages
his
son
had
received
in
a
job,
and
he
was
saying
that
he
thought
his
son
was
kind
of
surprised
at
the
wage
he
was
receiving,
and
so
again
I
could
be
thinking
I
might
have
had
a
conversation
with
someone
else.
I
apologize
but
anyway
point
being
overall,
even
beginning
wages
are
growing
and
certainly
retention,
wages
are
also
increasing
and
every
employer
is
learning.
C
A
C
C
D
A
C
D
So,
let's
shift
gears
into
the
individual
taxes,
starting
with
individual
income
tax.
Next
slide.
Please
here's
a
little
bit
of
the
history,
including
the
most
recent
quarter
that
was
recently
completed.
D
The
drop
in
fy
19
was
caused
by
tax
legislation
that
lowered
all
individual
income
receipts,
but
it
was
primarily
focused
in
the
withholding
category
and
then
in
fy
20
receipts.
Growth
picked
up
right
where
it
left
off
in
fy,
18
and
improved
significantly.
D
Growth
in
fy
21
occurred
across
withholding
declarations
and
net
returns
that
strong
growth
then
continued
in
the
first
quarter
of
fiscal
22.
in
the
first
quarter
of
22,
withholding
grew
by
5.3
percent
net
returns
grew
by
a
an
a
nominal
17
million
dollars.
As
you
recall,
net
returns
is
usually
it
averages.
The
expected
value
of
first
quarter
receipts
for
net
returns
is
right
around
zero.
D
It's
not
a
it's,
not
a
big
returns
pays
or
refund
season.
The
same
is
true
of
the
second
quarter
of
the
fiscal
year,
so
we
will
not
be
expecting
any
significant
monies
in
the
net
returns
bucket
in
the
next
three
months
as
well.
So
we're
really
not
going
to
be
getting
very
much
new
information
for
net
returns
in
the
next
couple
of
months,
so
it's
very
important
that
we
hammer
down
net
returns
forecast
this
go
round.
D
D
The
methodology
that
I'm
using
for
the
four
components
is
very
similar
to
what
I
use
in
august.
The
withholding
forecast
specification
is
exactly
the
same
as
in
august.
Declarations
is
exactly
the
same
as
in
august.
D
This
20
million
dollars
is
a
one-time
adjustment
that
is
applied
to
fy22
only
next
slide.
Please.
D
D
We
also
examined
how
the
tax
laws
have
impacted
returns,
and
we
also
took
a
closer
look
at
how
ui
the
withholding
and
the
impact
on
net
returns
was
affecting
the
most
recent
receipts
and
we
came
up
with
our
net
returns
forecast
based
on
that
evaluation.
So
it's
you'll
see
that
it's
the
of
all
the
components.
It's
the
one.
That's
changed
the
most.
The
fiduciary
is
just
a
very
simple
three-year
moving
average
next
slide,
please.
D
This
is
the
same
slide.
That
michael
showed
you
a
moment
ago,
kentucky
wages
and
salary.
You
can
see
that
the
control
and
optimistic
are
very
similar
and
the
pessimistic
lies
slightly
below,
but
all
three
of
them
are
have
a
greater
slope
than
they
did
in
fy
18.
next
slide.
Please-
and
here
you
can
see
the
withholding
forecast
for
the
control,
pessimistic
and
optimistic
scenarios.
D
D
And
here's
the
the
differences
compared
to
what
what
we
presented
in
august,
you
can
see
the
differences
are
very
small.
Those
are
millions
of
dollars
in
the
far
right
corner,
the
ihs
market
changed
their
forecasts
for
u.s
wages
and
salary,
and
therefore
kentucky
wages
and
salary
very
little
in
the
last
two
months.
So,
as
a
result,
there's
very
little
change
in
our
withholding
forecast
next
slide.
Please.
D
The
declarations
forecasts
is
the
same,
very
little
difference
compared
to
august.
Really,
the
the
only
difference
here
is
the
the
inclusion
of
the
new
first
quarter
observation
to
the
data.
So
we've
just
got
a
little
bit
more
information
about
what
happened
in
the
past
and
that's
the
only
difference.
That's
showing
up
here
next
slide.
Please.
D
So,
from
from
20
2009
to
fiscal
18,
net
returns
was
was
hovering
in
the
negative
241
to
negative
350
range.
So
if
we
were
somewhere
in
that
band
with
our
forecast,
we
knew
we
were
doing
pretty
good,
but
in
the
last
couple
of
years
that
that
range
has
has
greatly
expanded.
So
we
had
to
really
take
a
a
close
look
at
what's
going
on
with
net
returns,
and
we
believe
that
this,
the
tax
law
changes
that
occurred
in
2019
are
having
a
significant
impact
and
those
are
not
going
to
go
away.
D
So
we've
acknowledged
the
tax
law,
changes,
examined,
pays
and
refunds,
adjustments
for
ui
withholding
and-
and
we
took
a
close
look
at
the-
how
the
itemized
deductions
were
impacting
tax
tax
returns.
D
The
change
that
you
see
there
that
minus
two
percent
is
actually
growth
because
it's
negative
numbers
so
that
that
slight
growth
in
net
returns
in
23
and
24
is
purely
based
on
the
trend
that
we
were
seeing
in
in
refunds
and
pays.
So
it's
just
a
very
small
growth
impact
there
next
slide.
Please
and
fiduciary
is
a
as
you
remember,
a
simple
three-year
moving
average.
So
this
is
just
the
inclusion
of
the
most
recent
quarter
of
data.
D
It's
important
to
note.
Historically,
that
fiduciary
usually
runs
negative
for
the
first
three
quarters
of
the
month.
I'm
three
quarters
of
the
year,
I'm
sorry
and
then
has
all
of
those
pay
returns-
occur
in
the
fourth
quarter.
And
so
what
usually
happens
is
it's
running
slightly
negative
and
then
we
get
all
of
the
payments
in
the
fourth
quarter
and
that
leads
to
a
positive
account
balance
for
the
year.
D
However,
in
fy
21
we
had
a
few
taxpayers
who
had
refunds
from
from
prior
years
that
impacted
that
fourth
quarter
payment
and
caused
the
entire
year
to
be
negative.
That's
what
happened
for
the
fy21!
That's
why
it's
negative,
but
going
forward.
I
eliminated
that
because
that
was
a
one-time
event,
so
the
the
moving
average
does
not
include
those
one-time
refund
events
that
occurred
in
the
fourth
quarter
of
fy21.
D
So
that's
why
you
see
the
slightly
larger
numbers
in
fy,
22
and
23
and
24.
next
slide.
Please
here
are
the
legislative
adjustments.
These
are
exactly
the
same
as
you
saw
in
august
next
slide.
Please
and
here's
the
sum
of
all
four
components.
I
should
say
the
four
component,
the
normal
four
components
of
individual
plus
the
tax
legislation.
D
Changes
are
all
on
in
the
second
column
october
hyphen
control,
and
you
can
see
the
the
result
is
2.5
percent
growth
in
22,
3.4
and
23
and
3.6
and
24.,
and
this,
like
I
said
this
includes
all
the
tax
law.
Changes
are
already
in
those
figures.
D
Mr
chairman,
that's
all
I
have
for
individual.
Are
there
any
questions.
A
D
I
covered
a
lot
of
ground.
I
just
wanted
to
make
sure
everybody
had
understood
everything.
Shall
we
move
on
to
coal?
Sure,
okay,
advanced
two
slides,
please!
D
So
here's
a
little
bit
of
history
on
coal,
coal
receipts
peak,
then
fiscal
12
with
298
million
dollars
in
receipts
every
year.
Since
then
coal
receipts
have
declined.
D
You
can
see
there
in
fy19
that
there's
a
positive
number
showing,
but
that
was
because
of
a
couple
of
couple
of
taxpayers
who
made
one-time
payments
in
the
very
last
month
of
the
fiscal
year
for
prior
tax
years.
So
that
is
not
a
fiscal
19
event.
They
were
paying
on
prior
tax
years
and
they
made
a.
I
can't
tell
you
the
exact
amount
of
money
that
they
paid,
but
you
can.
You
can
deduce
that
it
was
greater
than
the
difference
between
19
and
18..
D
So
that's
the
reason
for
the
positive
showing
for
fy19,
but
receipts
have
declined
every
year
since
fiscal
12.,
the
second
quarter
of
fy
21,
grew
by
12.7
and
the
fourth
quarter
of
fy21
grew
by
29.2
percent,
and
you
can
see
here
in
fy,
22
quarter,
one
receipts
grew
by
6.1
percent.
Those
are
real,
the
central
appalachia
prices
during
that
time
have
risen
and
that's
the
main
reason
for
the
receipts
increase
in
the
recent
history.
D
Keep
in
mind
that
severed
tons
are
hovering
right
near
all-time
lows.
Last
quarter
we
severed
6.8
million
tons,
that's
for
the
entire
state
for
the
entire
quarter.
The
all-time
low
was
set
five
quarters
ago,
with
5.8
million
tons
severed
for
the
entire
quarter.
D
I
remember
just
as
recently
as
15
years
ago,
we
had
one
county
severing
that
much
for
the
quarter,
so
it's
a
considerable
difference
in
the
amount
of
severed
tons.
Next
slide,
please
here's
a
a
overall
summary
of
what's
going
on
in
the
energy
markets,
we're
going
to
take
a
closer
look
at
each
one
of
these
series.
D
D
This
is
a
very
similar
methodology.
What
I've
been
using
for
many
years.
The
only
difference
to
august
is
my
income
variable
instead
of
using
real
gdp,
as
I
did
in
august,
real
consumer
spending
on
durables
was
a
superior
variable
in
the
model
specification
process.
D
Next
next
slide,
please
the
differences
in
model
specification.
I
use
the
akiki
criterion
to
determine,
which
is
the
best
model.
They
were
extremely
close.
I
could
have
easily
continued
to
use
real
gdp,
but
this
real
consumer
spending
variable
was
just
ever
so
slightly
better
and
in
the
long
run-
or
I
should
say
as
far
as
ihs
is
concerned-
they've
produced
forecasts
for
those
two
series
which
are
which
behave
very
similarly,
so
it
really
doesn't
make
a
lot
of
difference
here.
Let's
take
a
look
at
the
prices
for
coal.
D
Now.
Remember
that
this
is
the
aggregate
price
for
all
coal
types
in
the
senate
in
the
state,
and
you
can
see
that
for
the
first
year
and
a
half
of
our
forecast
horizon,
all
three
scenarios
are
very
similar
and
then
they
split
ever
so
slightly
in
the
out
years.
D
Next
slide,
please
here's
oil
again,
the
the
the
seri.
These
three
scenarios
lie
nearly
on
top
of
each
other
again,
even
in
out
to
fy24.
D
D
Here's
the
henry
hub
price
of
natural
gas,
the
the
prices
are
almost
on
top
of
each
other,
depending
on
which
I
I
tried
to
play
with
this.
It
was
odd
to
me
that
the
pessimistic
scenario
is
the
one
that
lights
up
here
in
red.
I
played
around
with
it
and
thought
that
maybe
this
was
a
an
issue
of
how
I
added
them
in
excel,
so
I
did
it
all
three
different
ways
to
put
each
one
of
the
series
adding
it
to
the
slides
and
it
didn't
make
any
difference.
D
Somehow
the
pessimistic
scenario
shows
up
on
top
here,
like
this
all
the
time
but
they're
nearly
on
top
of
each
other
for
the
for
every
single
quarter
of
the
forecast
horizon,
and
you
can
see
that
they
they
rise
slightly
in
the
short
term
and
then
decline
over
our
forecast
horizon
next
slide.
Please
consumer
spending
on
durables.
D
Here
we
can
see
a
little
bit
of
differentiation
between
the
three
scenarios:
a
classic
differentiation.
The
optimistic
is
higher
and
the
pessimistic
is
a
little
bit
lower.
In
all
three
scenarios,
we
see
a
small
decline
or
a
fairly
significant
decline
in
the
very
short
term.
It
bottoms
out
at
varying
times,
and
then
it
begins
to
rise
for
all
three
scenarios
for
the
last
two
years
of
our
forecast.
Next
slide,
please!
D
So,
let's
take
a
look
at
the
what
the
forecast
produces.
We've
got:
14.4
percent
growth
in
fy22,
so
this
is
a
big
turnaround
for
coal
and
they're.
A
little
bit.
Ihs
market
is
a
little
bit
less
optimistic
about
fy
22
than
they
were
and
that's
a
function
of
what
they're
saying
about
real
consumer
spending.
That's
what's
caused
that
decrease
in
optimism
for
fy22,
and
then
you
can
see
in
for
fy
23,
19.4
percent
and
for
24
minus
1.8
percent,
and
I
extended
just
for
my
own
edification.
B
All
right
sales
taxes
back
to
me
and,
as
I
pointed
out
in
august,
we
still
have
a
lot
of
noise
in
the
sales
tax
dependent
variable.
B
Most
of
the
noise
comes
from
two
sources:
tax
reform
and
federal
stimulus.
As
I'll
show.
On
the
next
graph,
we've
received
a
considerable
amount
of
federal
stimulus
to
sustain
consumer
spending
in
the
forms
of
direct
stimulus
checks,
unemployment,
insurance,
the
extra
600
and
300
from
the
federal
government
as
well.
The
payroll
protection
loans,
the
ppp
loans
that
that
were
forgiven
in
kentucky
and
and
most
recently,
the
child
tax
credit
has
given
households,
income
that
they
normally
would
not
have
had,
and
that
put
some
noise
in
my
in
my
dependent
variable.
B
And
and
the
the
other
source
of
noise,
as
I
indicated,
was
tax
tax
law
changes
and
in
in
fiscal
in
calendar
year,
eight,
eighteen
and
19,
the
general
assembly
added
a
bunch
of
services,
thereby
creating
base
broadening
enhanced
our
ability
to
tax
online
sales,
and
you
know,
dependent
variables,
is
supposed
to
have
a
policy
tax
policy
neutral
basis.
B
So,
if
you
recall
a
couple
years
ago,
we
we
took
the
fiscal
impacts
out
more
forecasting
and
policy
neutral
series,
but
we're
far
enough
away
from
tax
reform
that
I
I
I
quit
doing
that
so
we're
not
we're
no
longer
trying
to
do
a
policy
neutral
with
with
regard
to
tax
policy,
dependent
variable.
B
It's
it's
built
into
the
base
now,
so
we
won't
see
probably
as
prominent
of
growth
from
the
sales
tax
running,
but
it's
it's
in
the
base
and
will
persist
and
lead
to
higher
nominal
levels.
The
federal
stimulus
money,
in
my
opinion,
is
mostly
transitory
and
the
the
the
challenge
to
forecasters
is
trying
to
separate
out
those
factors
of
what
what
is
structural,
more
persist
and
what
is
transitory.
B
I'm
going
to
the
federation
of
tax
administrators
revenue
estimation
conference
and
going
to
participate
in
a
panel
discussion
on
this
very
issue
and
talk
about
some
research
we've
done
here
and
and
sit
in
and
see
how
other
states
have
dealt
with
this
dealt
with
this
very
factor.
B
B
The
the
record
for
the
longest
time
was
january
of
19,
where
we
had
about
384
million
dollars
in
sales
tax,
and
we
thought
man
that's
going
to
stand
for
a
long
time
and
then
january.
The
next
year
showed
up
and
we
we
got
over
400
million
dollars.
That
was
pre-pandemic,
remember
and
then
the
pandemic
kit
in
april
and
may
in
june
were
down,
but
they
weren't
down
as
much
as
as
we
thought,
and
I
think
a
good
bit
of
it
is
due
to
some
of
the
the
stimulus
that
that
occurred.
B
The
the
twelve
hundred
dollars
per
adult
in
april
2020,
the
the
ui
bonuses
that
started
really
quickly
the
ppp
loans,
and
then
we
had
another
round
of
fiscal
stimulus,
and
then
we
did
300
bonus
ui
and
most
recently
we
have
the
300
child
tax
credit
checks
that
they're
distributing
as
a
early
early
disbursement
of
that
tax
credit.
B
But
you
can
see,
even
though
we've
had
a
resurgence
of
the
delta
variant
and
so
forth,
that
there's
a
lot
of
red
in
in
calendar
year,
2021,
meaning
there's
a
lot
of
months
over
400
million
dollars
and
and
that
is
is-
is
going
to
play
into
what
we
expect
for
the
remainder
of
the
year.
B
Those
red
months
were
right
in
the
middle
of
fiscal
stimulus
and
and
most
of
that,
the
like
the
the
1400
per
adult
payment
in
march
of
2021
that
won't
be
around
and,
and
you
know
the
the
disbursement
that
we
got
in
december-
2020
won't
be
around
you
know.
Maybe
somebody
has
saved
some
of
that
money,
but
in
general,
most
of
the
stimulus
except
for
the
child
tax
credit
is
expired.
G
Shows
greg
yeah.
Could
we
go
back?
Can
I
ask
a
question?
I'm
sorry,
yeah,
do
you
have
an
ex?
So
you
know
I'm
looking
at
this
and
you
know
january
19
is
kind
of
an
outlier,
as
you
pointed
out,
january.
20
is
certainly
an
outlier
and
that's
all
pre-pandemic
and
all
pre
response
to
the
pandemic,
and
I
look
at
january
of
21
and
while
yes,
you
can
argue
that
the
600
per
adult
in
december
probably
had
an
impact.
G
G
Is
there
something
where
we're
shifting
tax
payments
from
december
into
january
somehow
now
and
that
what
we're
really
seeing
there
is
a
seasonal
effect
coming
off
of
christmas
or
something
I
mean
is
there?
Is
there
a
structural
change
in
how
things
are
getting
reported?
That's
that
maybe
explains
this.
B
That's
a
that's
a
very
good
question,
dr
bollinger,
and
in
january
you
have
to
remember
that
sales
taxes
is
one
month
in
arrears.
The
january
payments
are
really
december
activity,
so
unless
you're,
a
advanced
filer
but
january
shows
the
majority
of
christmas
sales,
but
is
that
new?
That
is
not
new?
B
No
sir,
but
january
in
seasonal
terms,
is,
is
one
of
the
higher
months
of
the
year
consistently
as
you
as
you
go
through
the
time
series
the
to
me
the
the
thing
you
brought
up
about
july
of
2020
that
that
was
at
the
time
I
I
think
we
reported
in
our
press
release
how
surprising
it
was
because
that
was
that
was
june
activity,
and
there
was
a
lot
of
stuff
closed
up
in
june
of
2020.
B
In
terms
of
you
know,
june
activity
is
july,
collections
and
june
of
2020
was
a
fairly
lockdown
time,
so
the
july
of
2020
collections
over
400
million
dollars.
Really
what
came
as
a
surprise
to
me?
I
know.
F
E
G
C
B
Greg,
yes,
I
hope
so,
but
I
just
thought
the
monthly
history
was
was
was
somewhat
telling
and
that
the
the
stimulus
months
we
we
consistently
had
months
over
400
million
dollars
and
there's
nothing
really
special
about
400
million
dollars.
It's
just
that
that
was
the
the
gold
standard
for
for
the
longest
time
about
what
was
a
what
a
phenomenal
month
and
we've
just
been
knocking
him
off
on
on
a
very
fairly
consistent
basis
during
a
time
when
when
kobet
is
still
around.
A
Temporarily
extended,
but
that
will
end
in
this
fiscal
year.
I
believe.
B
The
the
the
the
only
that
there's
no
out
of
the
model
adjustments
for
the
the
300
child
tax
credit
in
the
model-
and
I
don't
have
a
dummy
for
it-
I
that's
one
of
the
key
things-
is
well
greg.
B
Why
don't
you
dummy
for
all
this
stuff
and
you
get
dummy
variable
paralysis
very
quickly,
if
you
try
to,
if
you
try
to
put
dummies
for
this
stuff
and
and
and
and
you
don't
know
exactly
when,
for
instance,
the
twelve
hundred
dollar
adult
april
2020,
you
don't
know
exactly
when
that
was
spent
on
sales
taxable
items,
it
was
very
hard
to
populate
dummy
variables
and
build
that
into
the
model
going
forward.
B
B
Well,
to
the
extent
that
it
affects
u.s
retail
sales
and-
and
we
think
it
probably
does
it's
it's
built
into
the
us
retail
sales
variable,
which
is
a
dependent
variable
and
two
or
a
exogenous
variable
in
two
of
my
models.
B
Michael
corrected
me:
it's
also
in
the
personal
income
data
which
shows
up
in
my
var
and
one
of
my
structural
models
as
well.
C
B
Just
a
second
on
this
on
this
on
this
quarterly
slide,
I
wanted
to
point
out
fiscal
year,
21
quarter
four,
because
that
that's
going
to
be
one
of
the
comparables
in
my
fiscal
22
forecast
and
look
at
the
1
billion
293
million
dollar
month
that
we
had
in
the
our
quarter
that
we
had
in
the
fourth
quarter
and
that
was
34
or
31.4
growth
over
fiscal
20
quarter,
four,
which
was
the
the
pandemic
quarter.
So
you
expected
prominent
growth,
31.4
percent.
B
But
if
you
go
back
to
the
last
clean
year
of
fourth
quarter,
that
would
be
fiscal
19
quarter
four
and
then
you
do
the
the
proper
compounding
that
would
be
11.2
percent
growth
from
adjusting
for
the
compounding
since
fiscal
year
1944,
which
was
a
huge
quarter
at
the
time
that
that
that
was
a
a
high
growth
quarter
and
we've
still
grown
11.2
percent
off
that.
And
if
you
remember
the
the
press
release,
we
did
at
the
the
end
of
the
of
the
fiscal
year.
B
Talking
about
sales
tax
point:
11.2
percent
is
rarefied
air
in
the
sa
in
the
sales
tax,
it
it
it's.
It's
close
to
record
levels
of
growth
that
that
you
would
see
that
that
have
gone
unseen
since
we've
raised
the
sales
tax
from
five
to
six
percent
in
the
early
nineties.
B
So
I
just
wanted
to
show
that
to
to
mention
that
that
that's
going
to
be
one
of
the
challenges
to
growth
in
the
rest
of
fiscal
22
is
getting
over,
that
that
fiscal
21
quarter
four
aided
by
stimulus
quarter.
B
So
let
me
talk
about
how
we
updated
the
model,
and
so
we
had
a
new
quarter
of
data,
and
I
went
back
and
looked
at
the
forecast
that
I
presented
in
august,
which
had
the
first
quarter
of
fiscal
22
as
an
estimate,
and
we
missed
the
estimate
in
that
quarter.
By
about
18
million
dollars,
missed
it
on
the
low
side.
So
receipts
came
in
18
million
dollars
greater
than
I
had
forecasted
so
that
you
know
that
that
carries
through
in
the
base.
B
So
if
you
look
at
at
the
at
the
end,
when
we
talk
about
differences
from
august,
18
million
annualized,
it's
about
72
million
dollars
and
and
that
that
was
a
the
the
effect
of
the
first
quarter
on
on
on
my
forecast,
we
we,
I
re-ran
the
same
models
that
I've
been
using
for
a
while.
I've
tried
some
of
the
the
specifications
that
that
you
all
gave
me
during
the
last
meeting
tried
some
of
that.
B
And
and
if
you
remember
michael's
picture
of
kentucky
transfer
payments,
it
looked
like
the
peace
sign,
it
had
two
big
peaks
and
the
rest
of
it
was
really
low
and
regardless
of
the
sample
size
that
I
used,
it
did
get
better
with
shorter
samples,
but
regardless
of
the
sample
size,
I
could
not
get
transfer
payments.
Kentucky
transfer
payments
to
be
as
significant,
not
even
close
to
being
significant.
B
So
I
think
one
of
you
all
suggested
well.
Why
don't
you
normalize
the
dependent
variable
like
we
did
after
expanding
the
base
in
2019,
but
I
really
lacked
the
data
to
separate
out
the
stimulus
effects.
So
I
couldn't
I
couldn't:
do
a
policy
neutral,
dependent
variable
based
on
the
information
that
I
had?
I
I
I
couldn't
I
couldn't
construct
that
so
what
we
did
was
we.
B
We
ran
our
our
structural
models,
our
var
in
our
arima,
and
those
were
the
models
that
we
blended
and
the
income
variables
I
used
were
kentucky
wages
and
salaries,
kentucky
personal
income
and
their
u.s
counterparts.
I
tried
all
those
kentucky.
Personal
income
actually
includes
transfer
payments,
obviously
so,
where
wages
doesn't
so
whenever
possible,
I
use
kentucky
personal
income.
B
The
only
problem
with
it
is
it's
a
fairly
monotonically
increasing
series,
so
it
doesn't
have
a
lot
of
variation
to
it,
but
nevertheless,
when
you
difference
it,
it
performs
pretty
well.
In
a
var,
I
used
a
global
insight,
variable
called
state
and
local
personal
taxes.
B
That
has
served
me
well
in
the
past
and
then
for
consumer
spending.
I
I
tried
the
consumer
spending
on
durables,
but
I
mainly
relied
on
u.s
retail
sales
because
it
has
the
most
comprehensive
view
of
of
ihs
markets,
view
on
what's
going
to
happen
to
retail
sales,
and
just
just
so
you
know
the
var
had
had
the
dependent
variables
were
seasonally,
adjusted
sales,
tax
difference
and
kentucky
personal
income
difference,
and
then
I
I
used
exogenous
variables,
retail
sales
and
u.s
state
and
local
personal
taxes
were
my
predetermined
variables.
B
Ultimately,
I
I
had
four
models
which
I'm
going
to
show
you
on
the
next
graph,
but
I
only
chose
to
blend
three
of
them
and
I
used
garch
and
arch
estimation
techniques,
as
I
mentioned
last
time,
on
the
on
the
advice
of
some
econometricians
that
I
talked
to
that
deal
with
utter
aggressive,
conditional
head
heteroskedasticity
and
the
fact
that
the
the
there's
a
information
in
the
in
the
residuals
that
can
be
used
to
potentially
lower
the
the
variance
and
get
a
more
efficient
estimator.
B
But
here
are
the
models
that
I
blended
a
little
bit
tough
to
see,
but
the
the
model
that
got
eliminated
was
the
green
model
at
the
bottom,
and
I
wasn't
doing
that
just
to
bump
the
estimates
up.
I
did
it
because
the
the
model
when,
when
you
when
you
do
the
analysis
to
the
first
quarter,
that
model
that
we
used
last
time
performed
the
worst
in
terms
of
its
contribution
to
the
first
quarter
error.
B
So
I
I
removed
that
from
the
blending
process,
thinking
that
it
would
artificially
lower
the
forecast,
as
it
did
in
the
first
quarter.
So
I
blended
a
retail
sales
different
structural
model
for
the
control
I
blended
in
an
arima
forecast,
and
I
blended
in
the
var
model,
with
with
the
difference
data.
B
So
those
are
the
those
are
the
pictures
of
my
blended
models
on
this
slide,
I'm
showing
the
the
the
control
forecast
growth
rates
and
you
can
see
in
the
current
year
I'm
calling
for
7.1
percent
growth
in
the
control
forecast
and
then
4.8
in
23
and
then
3.4
in
in
24..
B
I
I've
added
a
slide.
Well,
I
don't
see
it
well
here.
Here's
the
control,
optimistic
and
pessimistic
estimates
that
you
can
that
you
can
see
here.
The
the
optimistic
is
is
obviously
higher
than
the
the
control
8.2
growth
in
the
current
year
versus
7.1
5.5
in
23,
compared
to
4.8
in
the
control
and
5
and
24
compared
to
3.4
percent
in
the
control,
and
you
can
see
the
pessimistic
comparisons
as
well
in
the
pessimistic
and
optimistic.
B
I
used
only
two
models
to
blend
because
it
wasn't
appropriate
to
blend
in
the
arena
model
since
there's
no
ihs
market
variables
that
add
a
difference
between
the
control,
optimistic
and
pessimistic.
So
those
are
blends
of
two
models
instead
of
three
I
went
ahead
and
did
needs
just
just
so
you
can
see
what
you're
buying
into
if
you
choose,
control
optimistic
and
pessimistic.
B
B
B
A
F
F
F
F
Some
of
that
money
we
knew
about,
but
the
september
receipts
of
course
came
after
our
august
meeting,
and
that
was
a
surprise
to
us
that
we
collected
nearly
80
million
dollars
more.
The
second
factor
is
an
out
of
model
adjustment
that
we
made
I'll
talk
about
that
more
in
just
a
minute.
Let's
look
at
the
forecast
changes
for
the
u.s
corporate
profits
that
I
use.
This
is
a
control
forecast.
F
F
In
2022,
the
calendar
2022
and
running
through
the
first
half
of
23
has
been
lowered
relative
to
august,
but
it's
higher
in
the
last
year
and
a
half
of
the
forecast
we're
going
to
look
also
at
the
alternative
forecasts.
I
don't
usually
show
those,
because
typically
they
are
very
similar
to
the
controlled
forecast,
but
under
the
optimistic
you
will
see
again.
The
blue
is
the
current
forecast,
it's
higher
everywhere,
and
the
gap
between
the
august
and
the
october
forecasts
gets
bigger
as
we
move
through
the
forecast
horizon.
F
Excuse
me
under
the
pessimistic
again
the
blue
is
the
current.
It
is
lower
everywhere
and
significantly
lower
than
what
we
were
talking
about
in
august.
This
is
what
the
I
call
it
the
october
forecast.
Of
course
we
discussed
this
a
little
bit.
This
is
the
october
meeting,
so
I
call
it
the
october
forecast,
but
it's
based
on
the
september
ihs
market
forecast,
where
the
control
is
bounded,
of
course,
by
the
optimistic
and
the
pessimistic
it's
fairly
flat
and
then
increasing
over
the
last
two
years.
F
F
F
We
added
80
million
dollars
in
fiscal
23
and
we
added
nothing
to
fiscal
24
which
brought
us
to
these
estimates.
You
see
on
the
screen
so
we're
for
the
current
fiscal
year
under
the
control
forecast.
We
are
currently
76
ahead
of
last
year
or
125
million
dollars
in
the
bank.
The
forecast
calls
for
us
to
grow
10.6
percent
under
all
the
forecasts
or
scenarios
in
next
year
and
fiscal
23.
We
expect
a
decline
ranging
anywhere
from
three
to
twelve
point:
seven
percent
and
in
fiscal
24.
F
F
Even
with
a
forecast
that
is
200
under
the
control
scenario,
225
million
dollars
more
than
we
were
talking
about
in
august,
we
can
still
decline
4.4
over
the
remainder
of
the
fiscal
year
and
still
meet
this
estimate.
Under
the
optimistic,
the
estimate
is
an
increase
of
16.1
percent.
We
could
grow
2.3
percent
and
we
would
meet
that
forecast
and
likewise,
under
the
pessimistic,
the
estimate
is
for
growth
of
4.9
percent
in
the
current
year.
The
needs
over
the
next
nine
months
relative
to
the
last
the
same
time
frame
last
year.
E
I
have
a
quick
question.
Hopefully
it's
a
quick
question
similar
to
what
I
asked
earlier.
I
I
guess
I'm
a
little
bit
confused
about
the
the
numbers
versus
the
model,
so
if
I
just
saw
correctly
the
the
one
the
main
variables
you
use
is
book
profits
and
com
from
the
ihs
and
so
on
from
october
or
our
latest
one
compared
to
what
we
were
talking
about
in
august,
the
book
profits
are
actually
shown
to
be
lower
right
and
yet
right.
E
Somehow
the
estimates
for
what
we're
going
to
collect
are
massively
higher,
and
so
I
I
think
I
understand,
because
it
seems
from
your
explanation
that
by
the
way
this
is
a
good
thing
right
for
collecting
all
this
money.
It
seems
like
it's
mostly
from
this
recent
quarter
that
was
so
much
higher
76
percent.
I
just
want
to
make
sure
that
something
hasn't
happened
in
the
last
three
months.
E
I
doubt
it,
but
where
places
have
put
up
a
whole
lot
of
money
in
the
last
three
months
and
then
all
of
a
sudden
in
the
last
nine
months,
they're
not
gonna,
make
up
and
everything's
gonna
be
drastically
lower.
I
don't
understand.
I
guess
my
question
overall
is:
is
how
rs,
how
has
ihs
got
us
doing
less,
but
we're
going
to
end
up
our
model
says
we're
going
to
collect
a
whole
lot
more.
Were
we
that
far
off
in
august
or
has
something
else
happened.
F
Well,
it's
mainly
you're
right
first,
let
me
say
you're
right
that
there's
always
the
concern
that
the
declaration
payments
are
going
to
be
high.
We
get
to
the
end
of
the
year.
That's
going
to
go
back
out
in
refunds.
We
collect
you
know
in
the
fourth
quarter.
We
collect
almost
45
percent
of
the
total
revenue
in
these
accounts
in
the
final
three
months
of
the
year
and
most
of
that's
in
in
june.
So
we
never
really
know
what's
going
to
happen
until
we
get
to
the
end
of
the
year,
that's
always
a
concern.
F
F
So
the
other
part
is
yes,
the
forecast
is
a
bit
lower,
you're
right
and
so
that
break
that
should
bring
us
down
a
little
bit.
A
lot
of
that
has
to
do
with
this
125
million
dollars
that
we've
already
have
in
the
bank,
so
the
first
quarter
there's
always
a
bit
of
a
disconnect.
This
is
the
corporate
profits
that
we
use.
It's
really
the
best
thing
we
have
to
to
look
at
to
forecast,
but
there's
always
a
bit
of
a
disconnect
between
what
we
collect
excuse
me
and
what
the
ihs
forecast
is.
F
Excuse
me
that
we
thought
that
a
decline
over
the
last
next
nine
months
of
over
18
percent
was
really
just
going
to
be
a
little
bit
too
much.
I'm
sorry
and
we
thought
it
was
it's
prudent
or
the
best
to
go
ahead
and
add,
add
that
money
and
of
course
now,
when
we
meet
in
december,
we'll
have
a
little
bit
more
data,
but
I'm
sorry,
but
october
and
november
are
not
particularly
large
months
for
collections.
So
we're
not
going
to
have
a
lot
more
money.
F
There
are
a
lot
more
information
or
good
information,
they're,
not
some
of
the
larger
months,
but
we
want
to
go
ahead
and
put
that
money
in
now,
rather
than
and
let
you
think
about
it
and
we'll
we'll
kind
of
look,
I
will
say
I
looked
at
the
daily
receipts
this
morning
and
again
october
is
not
a
particularly
large
month
and
we're
only
in
the
middle
of
the
month.
So
I
don't
like
to
read
too
much
into
it,
but
we
are
about
10
million
dollars
ahead.
Thank
you
this
month,
compared
to
last
month.
F
So
it
seems
to
be
that
that
trend
is
continuing
and
we
think
we're
going
to
do
a
little
bit
better,
even
though
the
forecast
for
the
profits
is
lower.
Thank.
E
G
D
A
A
A
A
F
C
C
F
Oh
okay,
so
we're
trying
to
finish
up
packing
today
and
tomorrow
and
good.
B
We've
been
blessed
to
be
in
the
annex
for
so
long.
We
have
good
quarters
over
here.
A
A
F
All
right,
thank
you
before
I
get
started
on
property
during
the
break.
Greg
did
mention
budget
director
hicks
just
came
back
from
the
national
association
of
state
budget
officers
meeting
and
they're
all
reporting
strong
growth
in
their
corporation
income
taxes
as
well
across
many
other
states.
So
we're
not
it's
not
unusual
here
that
we're
we're
getting
large
increases
in
those
receipts.
F
So
for
the
property
tax
forecast,
there
is
no
change
to
the
august
forecast.
We've
talked
about
this
before
the
majority
of
the
property
taxes
come
november
through
january
february.
A
lot
of
that
is
mainly
because
of
the
real
property
tax
and
we're
not
we
haven't,
received
any
of
those
revenues
yet
so
just
a
few
notes
on
the
property
tax,
the
august
estimate
was
for
711
million
dollars
or
1.2
percent
growth
in
fiscal
22.
F
The
growth
rates
for
23
and
24
were
3.5
and
3.3
percent.
Currently
we're
up
16.5
percent
year-to-date.
I
should
point
out
that
we've
only
collected
about
65
million
dollars
out
of
that
estimated
711.
F
F
The
estimate
was
for
a
decline
of
1.1
percent
and
were
essentially
flat
year-to-date.
So
we
feel
like
there's
no
need
to
make
a
change
there.
You
will
see
if
you
look
at
the
receipts
report,
that
the
tangible
account
is
running
about
10
million
dollars
ahead,
that
is,
for
the
telecom
property
portion
of
the
property
tax.
I
reached
out
to
the
department
of
revenue.
F
They
indicated
that
the
bills
went
out
earlier
this
year
and
they
think
that's
just
an
acceleration
of
receipts
in
the
past
that
money
had
come
in
in
october
and
november.
So
we
think
by
the
time
we
meet
in
december,
that
account
will
be
on
track
to
where
we
think
it's
going
to
be.
So,
given
all
those
factors,
there
is
no
change
in
the
property
tax
forecast
from
august.
B
I'm
returning
to
talk
about
the
cigarette
tax,
the
fiscal
20
tax
revenues
were
surprising
and
that
they
they
actually
grew
0.4
more
than
fiscal
19,
with
with
no
change
in
the
tax
rate.
So
getting
growth
with
no
changes
in
tax
rate
implies
the
increase
in
consumption,
which
is
what
we
saw
in
fiscal
20..
B
Fiscal
21
was
1.4
percent
lower
than
20,
which
is
the
the
at
least
the
right
sign.
We
expect
the
negative
and
we
got
a
negative
in
in
20
21,
that
is,
fiscal
22,
we're
down
4.4
in
the
first
quarter.
We
we
ex
my
field
experts
on
this.
I
I
have
some
some
people.
I
call
who
are
wholesalers
and
I
used
to
talk
to
some
folks
at
the
department
of
revenue
have
retired.
B
So
I
rely
more
on
my
my
field
experts
and
they
say
that
what's
going
on
right
now
is
that
prices
are
rising
on
most
cigarettes
brands,
the
the
majors
at
least
the
prices
are
rising.
B
You
know:
2020
was
a
very
high
year
for
profits
in
the
major
tobacco
companies,
because
they're
able
to
push
these
higher
prices
onto
consumers,
but
what
we're
seeing
so
higher
prices
lead
to
less
consumption
as
a
general
rule,
but
what
we're
seeing
according
to
the
field
folks
I
speak
with-
is
movement
down
the
product
line
to
combat
higher
products,
in
other
words,
buying
lesser
brands
of
of
the
same
of
well
either
the
same
manufacturer
or
changing
manufacturers
all
together
to
combat
the
higher
prices.
B
Ceteris
fair,
but
that's
good,
for
that
is
a
good
thing
for
cigarette
receipts,
because
it's
not
a
it's,
not
a
value
tax.
It's
not
it's
a
per
pack
tax!
It's
a
excise
tax,
it's
an
excise
tax
and
not
it
doesn't
have
an
ad
valorem
component
to
it.
So
moving
down
the
product
line
combats
the
fact
that
prices
are
rising,
so
we
don't
expect
in
kentucky.
B
We
don't
expect
as
much
decline
as
maybe
you'll
see
nationwide,
and
I
did
disband
with
the
optimistic
and
pessimistic
view
of
cigarette
taxes,
because
I
really
didn't
have
model
a
model
that
had
ihs
market
variables
in
it
that
you
could
do
a
meaningful,
pessimistic
and
optimistic.
So
what
I?
What
I'm
depicting
here
is
just
our
control,
which
is,
is
used
in
all
three
scenarios
when
we
get
to
our
balance
sheet
and
that's
a
2.5
percent
decline
in
22,
a
2
decline
in
23
and
a
2.3
decline
in
24.
B
and
so
modest
declines,
a
little
bit
more
of
a
decline
than
we
saw
in
fiscal
21,
but
we'll
reevaluate
the
situation
before
december
and
get
you
know
our
final
cut.
But
that's
that's
where
we're
standing
right
now.
Very
small
changes
from
what
we
did
in
august,
but
the
the
actually
the
the
control
numbers
we're
using
for
october
were
close
closer
to
the
pessimistic
numbers
we
used
in
in
august
and
that's
and
that's
due
to
the
the
first
quarter
results
of
negative
four
point:
four
percent.
B
So
that's
that's
cigarettes.
We
we
know
the
sign
is
gonna,
be
negative,
at
least
we're
pretty
sure
the
sign
is
going
to
be
negative,
it's
hard
to
it's
hard
to
pinpoint
whether
it's
going
to
be
negative,
two
and
a
half
or
negative
three
percent
or
negative,
two
percent.
But
those
are
the
estimates
and
we'll
refine
them
in
in
december.
When
we
come
back
and
do
the
official
estimates.
A
B
The
kentucky
lottery
is
the
next
account
I
want
to
talk
about,
and
we
we
talked
about
some
of
this
stuff
last
time,
but
I
I
want
to
talk
about
it
again,
because
the
the
as
you'll
see
on
the
next
slide
there
there's
a
an
apparent
incongruity
in
the
fact
that
sales
are
rising
and
the
dividend
is
falling
and
I
want
to.
B
I
want
to
be
clear
on
on
why
that
is
occurring
and
and
the
changes
going
on
in
the
kentucky
lottery,
so
fiscal
21
was
just
a
phenomenal
year
and
that
and
that
led
to
the
289.1
general
fund
dividend
that
we
got.
B
B
Even
though,
if
you
looked
at
the
receipts
report,
it
was
289.1,
but
in
terms
of
ticket
sales
and
and
sales
they
they
were.
Fiscal
20
was
just
phenomenal,
were
up
close
to
30
percent
in
instant
tickets,
draw
games
were
up
close
to
18
and
the
I
lottery
while
last
year
was
only
118
million
out
of
one
point.
Roughly
six
billion
in
in
total
sales,
it
grew
256.7
percent
and
and
the
the
return
to
players
on
I
lottery
is
about
85
or
slightly
higher.
B
So
growth
in
that
into
the
future
is
one
of
the
reasons
why
we're
going
to
have
growth
in
sales
and
not
an
immediate
growth
in
dividends,
but
total
ticket
sale
growth
last
year
was
a
a
phenomenal
31.8
percent.
It
was
just
not
too
long
ago
when
the
lottery
was,
was
peaking
a
billion
dollars
and
were
already
as
of
last
year,
up
to
one
point:
1
billion
586.3
million.
B
B
Getting
to
the
to
the
dividend
and
ticket
sales,
we
we
do
expect
a
little
bit
of
growth
in
fiscal
22
over
the
phenomenal
growth
that
we
saw
in
in
fiscal
21.
B
B
You'll,
see
a
fairly
sizeable
dip
in
instant
instant
play.
B
There
was
961.7
million,
that's
the
highest
of
of
all
their
their
categories
was
instant
sales
961.7
last
year
and
and
they're
only
projecting
about
897
million
this
year
and
and
so
a
drop
in
instant
play
drop
and
draw
games
the
the
big
increase
in
sales.
The
reason
we're
going
up
actually
is
the
is
I
lottery
the
in
the
eye
lottery
category.
B
We
we,
you
know,
set
a
big
record
last
year
of
118.6
million
in
sales
this
year,
we're
projecting
190
million
in
sales,
which
is
phenomenal
growth,
so
that
led
that's
leading
to
the
ticket
growth
in
in
in
the
year
fiscal
22.
B
But
the
dividend
does
not
reflect
the
the
very
slight
growth
we
had
in
in
in
ticket
sales,
because
the
the
the
payout,
the
the
the
prize,
expense
I
should
say
from
ilottery
is-
is
the
highest
price
expense
across
all
the
all
the
lottery
products,
so
we're
expecting
an
eight
percent
decline
in
the
dividend,
transfer
in
fiscal
22
and
then
we'll
resume
growth
in
fiscal
23
and
fiscal
24.
Once
we
moderate
from
that
from
that
huge
year
in
fiscal
21.
B
But
while
it
seems
somewhat
counterintuitive
that
that
we're
going
to
have
ticket
growth
in
the
next
three
years
in
the
dividend
is,
is
just
going
to
reach
347
again
in
24.,
it
makes
perfect
sense
when
you
look
across
their
offering
of
products
and
their
projected
sales
and
I've
gone
through
the
financials
and
and
and
agree
with
the
analysis
of
the
of
the
kentucky
lottery
board.
And
those
are
the
dividend.
Projections
that
we
have
for
for
for
now.
B
If
there's
any
questions
about
the
lottery
I'll,
take
them
otherwise
I'll
I'll
move
to
the
other
taxes.
B
The
miscellaneous
other
taxes,
I'm
not
going
to
go
through
the
the
lengthy
discussion
I
had
in
august.
I
I
will
concentrate
on
the
changes
we
did
since
august.
B
The
the
biggest
change,
of
course,
is
the
225
million
dollar
settlement
check
we
received
pursuant
to
the
legal
settlement
with
flutter
entertainment,
which
is
the
parent
company
of
poker
stars.
We
we
got
a
225
million
dollar
inflow
that
hit
the
hit
the
books
in
september.
That's
why
september
receipts
were
so
high.
One
of
the
reasons
september
receipts
were
so
high
that
that
money
hit
hit
miscellaneous
revenues,
which
is
a
part
of
other
taxes,
so
other
taxes.
B
If
you
remember
back
to
august,
we
were
saying
other
taxes
were
going
to
fall
in
2022
with
this
225.
Obviously,
the
fall
has
turned
to
to
an
increase
and
I'll
show
that
to
you
in
a
minute,
but
that
that's
the
single
largest
adjustment
since
since
august,
obviously
225
million
dollar
unexpected
settlement.
B
We
talked
that
over
with
the
department
of
revenue
and
decided
that
a
downgrade
to
insurance
premiums
tax,
we
we-
we
took
some
money
out
of
the
current
year
and
there's
some
money
that
came
out
of
23
and
24
as
well
due
to
the
lower
base,
so
insurance
premiums
tax
was
was
a
haircut
on
my
spreadsheet
and
there
was.
B
There
was
a
small
upgrade
in
paramutual
tax
receipts.
We
had
a
phenomenal
first
quarter
and
based
on
the
first
quarter
receipts,
I
went
back
to
look
at
the
historical
horse.
Racing
part
of
the
paramutual
tax
and
in
particular
the
mutual
receipts
were
were
increased
because
of
higher
expectations
of
the
historical
horse,
racing
segment
of
that
of
that
tax,
the
pair
mutual
tax.
B
So
all
that
sums
up
into
22,
you
know
remember.
Last
time
we
talked
about
the
bank
franchise
tax
on
how
that
was
going
to
drive
the
the
22
numbers
down.
Well,
the
bank
franchise
tax
still
is
124
million
dollar
drag
on
22,
but
the
225
million,
plus
the
other
changes
swamps
that
so
we're
expecting
987.3
million
in
in
fiscal
22.
B
Obviously,
that's
going
to
lead
to
a
a
large
decline
in
23
because
we
won't
have
that
that
one
time
225
million
dollar
settlement,
so
you
get
a
big
decline
in
23
and
then
back
to
sort
of
normal
growth
in
24
is
what
we're
looking
for.
You
know
we.
This
is
a
a
culmination
of
about
65
individual
accounts
that
we
reevaluate.
I
I
looked
at
the
numbers
after
the
first
quarter.
B
Receipts
and
most
of
the
categories
were
in
line
with
expectations,
except
for
the
insurance
premiums
and
and
the
pair
mutual,
so
that
that's
the
forecast
for
other
we'll
take
a
you
know
a
deeper
dive
and
show
you
more
detail
in
december
when
we
do
the
the
official
estimates,
but
that's
where
we
stand
right
now,
in
other
other
receipts,.
B
B
Except
for
a
different
slide,
the
difference
is
208
million
and
22
and
then
a
slight
decline
in
23
and
24,
mainly
due
to
the
insurance
premiums
tax
haircut
that
that
I
I
did
okay,
I
did
you
know,
usually
at
this
time.
Mr
chairman,
we
pull
up
a
spreadsheet
and
start
talking,
control,
optimistic,
pessimistic
and
doing
some
blending,
but
I
did
want
to
make
a
few
remarks.
B
You
know
looking
at
it
from
the
treetops
instead
of
through
each
individual
tax,
to
maybe
put
the
forecast
in
a
little
context.
If,
if
I
fail
in
that
in
that
endeavor,
I
apologize,
but
I
did
have
a
few
a
few
different
ways
to
look
at
it.
B
You
may
remember
when
buddy
street
was
on
the
was
on
the
cfg
back
in
the
90s,
and
he
would
always
look
at
the
general
fund
holistically
and
and
and
want
to
know
how
is
the
general
fund
growth
that
that
we're
projecting
compare
with
historical
periods?
B
And
so
I
I
went
ahead
and
did
that
and
if
you
use
compound
annual
growth
rates
and
and
the
control
forecast,
only
the
what
we're
calling
for
in
in
the
biennial
forecast
is
about.
3.4
compound
annual
growth
rates
for
the
for
the
current
year
in
the
in
the
upcoming
biennium,
the.
B
If
you
compare
that
to
some
periods
in
the
past
fiscal
15
through
fiscal
21,
is
the
six
year
compound
annual
growth
rate
period
and
that
that
that
was
a
4.3
percent
regime
of
of
taxing
increase
in
general
fund
tax
receipts.
The
number
is
higher,
mainly
because
21
was
such
a
huge
year.
If
you
take
out
21
and
you
recalculate
a
five-year
compound
annual
growth
rate.
Instead
of
a
six
that
4.3
would
have
been
a
3.0,
you
know
it's.
B
I
don't
know
if
it's
fair
to
take
out
a
year
and
look
at
it
that
way,
but
I'm
just
saying
the
math.
If
I,
if
I
showed
fiscal
15
to
20,
it
would
have
been
3.0
instead
of
the
4.3
same
same
with
the
11-year
period,
from
fiscal
21
to
fiscal
or
fiscal
10
to
21.
B
That
4.1
would
be
3.5
percent.
If
you
took
out
and
just
did
it
from
fiscal
10
to
fiscal
20..
B
I
I
I
figured
that
that
you
know
ending
it
on
20
would
be
just
as
biased
as
is
ending
it
on
21,
because
you
know
20
did
have
some
a
lower
quarter
due
to
the
pandemic.
So
I
just
kept
with
with
what
I
thought
was
the
fairest
measure,
but
you
can
see
that
growth
is
consistent
with,
albeit
slightly
lower
than
the
two
historical
years
that
that
that
year's
fans
that
I
chose
to
to
to
to
depict.
G
B
If
you
went
through
fiscal
18,
if
you
did
a
fiscal
15
through
fiscal
18
yeah
you,
you
would
be
down.
B
I
I
dare
I
dare
make
that
projection
in
my
head,
but
fair
enough.
It
would
be
in
the
three
somewhere.
So
I
I
can
compute
those
and
while
we're
doing
the
the
road
fund
and
get
back
to
you
on
them,
but
the
they
would
be
in
the
threes.
So
I
think
the
growth
that
we're
we're
calling
for
in
the
control
forecast
is
is
roughly
consistent
with
historical
periods
is
what
I'm
trying
to
say.
G
B
Another
slide
that
may
or
may
not
hit
the
mark
is,
is
differences
in
the
entire
forecast
versus
the
october
versus
excuse
me,
the
august
consensus
and
in
its
entirety
the
fiscal
22
difference
from
august
consensus
is
641.1
million
dollars
is,
is
if
you
adopt
the
control
you're
going
to
be
641.1
million
higher
than
where
we
pushed
away
from
the
table
in
august.
B
You
know,
225
of
that
is
it's
greg.
Can
you
remind
me.
G
B
It
was,
it
was
a
hundred
percent
control.
There
was
some
talk
about
maybe
doing
a
little
bit
more
optimistic
in
22,
since
the
growth
rate
was
only
0.9,
but
ultimately
we
adopted
the
the
control
forecast
for
22,
23
and
24
for
both
the
general
fund
and
the
road
fund.
All
right,
so
you
can
see
the
the
range
of
what
we're
going
to
add
today.
B
If
we
choose
the
optimistic,
pessimistic
or
control
would
be
461.7
in
the
pessimistic
up
to
752.4
million
in
the
optimistic,
so
fairly
substantial
increases
versus
in
the
current
year
versus
what
we
said
in
august
again
that
that's,
I
think,
prime,
in
a
lot
of
cases,
primarily
due
to
that
great
first
quarter,
but
and
you
can
see
in
23
and
24
the
the
differences
between
what
we'd
said
in
23
the
the
important
part
you
know,
I
I
think
in
in
doing
a
23
and
24
estimates
is
nailing
that
base
down,
because
our
growth
rates,
I
think
are
are
are
believable
from
22
to
23
and
23
to
24.
B
It's
just
getting
that
base
correct,
and
so
you
can
see
the
differences
since
august
for
23
and
24.
B
B
If
you
take
all
the
taxes
in
in
in
in
in
their
entirety,
the
the
control
forecast
has
a
needs
of
1.8
percent,
meaning
that
the
last
nine
months,
if
they
grow
at
1.8
percent,
we
would
hit
the
control
estimate
if
they
grew
at
3.0
percent,
that
we
would
hit
the
optimistic
forecast
and
if
revenues
were
flat
in
the
final
nine
months
of
the
year,
the
pessimistic
scenario
would
be
the
what
would
come
in.
B
I
I
show
this
just
to
remind
us.
You
know
when
we're
talking
about
needs,
we're
talking
about
needs
of
growth
over
the
second
third
and
fourth
quarter
of
fiscal
21,
and
I
showed
you
in
the
sales
tax
how
much
growth
we
had
in
the
third
and
fourth
quarters
of
of
of
21,
some
some
some
fairly
high
hurdles
in
the
sales
tax.
B
I
know,
but
just
in
general,
the
the
third
quarter
and
the
fourth
quarter
were
were
very
historically
high
growth
quarters,
especially
the
24.8
percent
in
the
fourth
quarter,
albeit
against
the
the
the
covent
pandemic
quarter,
but
that
didn't
fall
that
much
really
on
the
revenue
side
due
to
some
of
the
stimulus.
So
the
24.8
percent
is
a
is
a
formidable
hurl
hurdle
in
a
lot
of
taxes.
So
that's
why
the
needs!
The
the
you
know,
the
seemingly
low
needs
that
we're
calling
for.
B
B
So
with
that,
what
we
typically
do
is
pull
up
the
spreadsheet
and
have
an
an
economic
discussion
about
control,
optimistic,
pessimistic
and
and
and
allow
you
to
do
some
blending.
So
I'm
gonna
pull
up
our
spreadsheet.
A
A
B
Yeah
absolutely
michael.
A
Hey
frank:
while
he's
doing
that,
I
guess
I
have
a
question
for
the
group.
A
F
A
Have
large
implications
for
certainly
government
spending,
transfer
payments
etc,
and
we've
just
observed
despite
high
unemployment,
large
large
government
transport
payments
are
actually
good
for
state
tax
revenues,
and
so
that's
one
thing.
I
think
that,
as
I
think
about
our
forecast
for
the
outer
years
in
particular,
that's
kind
of
going
through
my
head
is:
if
some
version
of
that
passes,
you
know
how
does
that
translate
into
state
revenues
as
well?
A
Question
that's
not
addressed
at
this
point
and
I
suppose
the
one
comment
I
would
make
is
that
it
will
be
addressed
by
the
time
we
meet
in
december.
I
hope
as
to
whether
that's
going
forward
or
not.
The
second
is
how
quickly
those
effects
are
going
to
feed
in,
and
you
know
one
would
have
to
study
that.
That's
why
I
was
asking
about
the
child
tax
credit
and
whether
it
was
going
to
continue
or
not,
but
right
it's
just
you're
right.
B
I'm
showing
our
normal
blend
sheet,
there's
a
line
right
under
total
general
fun
that
that
shows
what
the
growth
rates
would
be
without
the
225
million
dollars
and
fiscal
23
you
know,
appears
weak
at
1.2
percent.
But
if
you
take
out
the
the
225
million
from
fiscal
22,
the
growth
in
23
would
have
been
2.9
instead
of
1.2,
and
the
growth
in
the
current
year
would
have
been
3.9
instead
of
5.7.
B
Just
just
if
that
helps,
you
wrap
your
your
head
around
any
of
it,
but
this
is
our
typical
blending
sheet
and
and
we
we
would
certainly
seek
your
endpoint
at
this
point.
Your
input.
A
B
A
G
G
With
jose,
I
I
I
I
I
can't
I
can't
see
going
with
an
optimistic,
although
I
don't
think
that
matters,
because
it's
not
that
different
right.
I
have
a
hard
time
going
with
the
pessimistic
part
of
me
wants
to
hedge
just
a
little
bit
against.
Who
knows
what
the
heck's
coming
down
the
pike
next,
but
I
like
the
control.
G
You
know
there
are
so
many
things
that'll
make
it
go
up
and
things
that'll
make
it
go
down,
because
I
was
I
was
looking
at
things
like
you
know.
The
impact
payments
won't
be
around,
but
they
weren't
taxable,
so
they
didn't
affect
it.
The
uninsurance
payments
they
are
taxed
and
they'll
be
gone,
but
we
have
fewer
people
working
and
so
they're
gonna
have
to
make
more.
In
order
to
make
up.
For
that,
I
believe
I
think
they're
gonna
be
incentive
payments
from
firms.
G
You
know
so,
what's
higher
on
that,
I
don't
know
the
and
they
were
still
going
in
the
first
quarter,
but
they're
gone
now
and
then
I
was
looking
at
the
sales
tax
yeah,
I'm
not
as
I'm
not
as
positive
that
inflation
isn't
going
to
get
higher
than
two
percent.
You
know
I
know
a
lot
of
I
know
the
fed
chair
is
is
optimistic
about
that,
but
I'm
not
I
when
you
look
at
just
how
big
their
balance
sheet
is.
G
It
just
doesn't
seem
possible
that
there
won't
be
some
sort
of
inflation,
but
I
was
wrong
on
the
recession
in
the
great
recession,
so
I
may
be
wrong
again,
you
know,
and
so
so
they're
just
there
are
so
many
things
that
you
could
say.
Oh
yeah,
it's
going
to
go
up,
but
then
other
things
you
can
say
yep
it's
going
to
go
down.
You
know
the
supply
chain
issues
when
are
those
going
to
are
how
transitory
are
they?
G
G
Does
that
make
sense?
You
know
I
don't
know
so
so
I'm
I'm
happy
with
the
control
as
well.
I
I
guess,
if
I
were
gonna
really
go
with
my
gut.
I'd,
probably
be
a
oh.
G
E
Yes,
no
problem
kathy.
I
think
that
was
a
great
summary.
I
agree
I
think
I'll
start
with
how
you
ended.
I
think
I'm
probably
leaning
a
little
bit
more
pessimistic
just
because,
as
as
chris
said
earlier,
we're
trying
to
go
from
what
happened
a
year
ago,
which
was
none
of
us,
could
really
fathom
to
year
by
year.
Comparisons
to
where
we
are
now.
I
think
it's
really
difficult
to
make
those
comparisons.
E
I
I've
asked
several
questions.
I
still
have
such
a
hard
time
figuring
out
if
some
of
what
we've
thought
about
two
months
ago,
isn't
quite
as
nice,
but
we're
still
thinking
about
collecting
a
lot
more,
but
the
short
is.
Is
that
greg?
I
appreciate
when
you,
especially
for
the
next
this
current
year,
when
you
say
what
we
have
to
catch
up
or
what
we
need
for
the
next
nine
months,
so
I'd
probably
lean
more
pessimistic
theoretically,
but
practically
especially
for
this
next
year.
I'm
probably
super
fine
with
the
you
know
the
normal.
E
I
guess,
because
we
have
so
little
the
first
three
months
were
so
good.
It
seems
like
it
would
be
hard
not
to
get
what
we
need
to
make
up
for
those
last
nine
months
to
be
able
to
meet
it,
and
so
the
legislature
really
needs
the
end
result
more
than
our
theoretical.
So
I
think
the
end
result
was
probably
pretty
close
to
the
consensus.
D
B
All
right
would
you
would
you
like
to
go
to
the
road
fund
then
or.
A
Yes,
john
john,
will
note
what
we've
agreed
to
right
is
john
connick,
john
ronker.
Yes,
I'm
here,
oh
you're
here
and
you
heard
all
this.
Yes,
we
have
it
recorded
so
good.
Thank
you.
So
you're
prepared
a
letter
on
this
matter
in
due
course
right
correct.
I
know.
B
Statute
requires
us
to
notify
the
three
heads
head.
The
heads
of
the
three
branches
of
government.
A
F
Yep
there
it
is
we'll
look
at
the
differences
between
the
august
forecast
and
the
current
forecast.
The
only
other
thing
I'm
going
to
do
a
little
differently
today
than
I've
done
in
the
past
is
I'm
going
to
focus
on
the
motor
fuels
estimate,
as
well
as
a
motor
vehicle
usage
estimate
and
then
the
remaining
accounts.
I'm
going
to
look
at
those
as
a
group,
I'm
doing
that
because
they
tend
to
be
smaller
with
less
variation,
and
so
I'm
going
to
look
at
those
altogether
today.
F
So
bottom
line
difference
in
the
forecast
from
august
under
the
for
the
current
year,
small
increases
anywhere
from
3.9
million
dollars
to
19.4
million
dollars
and
then
in
the
out
years,
declines
under
all
scenarios,
relatively
big
20
to
60
million
dollars
depending
on
the
year
and
on
the
scenario.
F
F
Regardless
of
of
the
scenario
we
choose,
I
should
point
out:
I
didn't
talk
about
the
average
wholesale
price
today
we
are.
They
do
that
four
times
a
year,
the
first
month
of
the
quarter
in
july.
F
So
when
we
look
at
where
we
are
currently,
that
would
put
us
above
the
floor
which
would
increase
the
tax
rate
when
I
do
the
forecast,
the
forecast
for
the
average
wholesale
price
has
this
bumping
up
just
to
the
217.7,
so
the
forecast
for
the
price
of
gasoline,
which
I
use
had
it
peaking
at
the
end
of
the
last
quarter
and
tapering
off.
F
So
that's
why
my
forecast,
even
though
we're
currently
above
the
217.7
at
the
end
of
the
year
when
we
average
out
the
four
quarters
it
has
us
at
216.7,
so
slightly
below.
F
F
F
Correct
and
that's
the
problem-
and
I
think
that
we
talked
about
earlier-
this
is
the
september
forecast,
which
was
no
doubt
prepared
in
august.
My
my
guess
is
that
once
we
come
back
in
december
that
that
forecast
will
be
significantly
different
and
we
will
see
an
increase
in
the
tax
rate.
I
do
anticipate
that.
A
F
F
I
use
consumer
spending
so
total
spending
on
on
vehicles
when
michael
shows
units
sold
probably
a
similar
shape
in
the
graphs,
but
not
necessarily
going
to
be
exact.
So
in
case
you're
wondering
why
my
my
graphs
might
look
a
little
different
than
what
michael
showed
it's
the
difference
between
spending
on
vehicles
and
unit
sales.
F
For
those,
so
let's
look
at
the
change
in
motor
vehicle
usage
tax
relative
to
what
we
saw
in
august
again
in
millions
of
dollars
under
the
control
and
the
pessimistic
declines
in
the
current
year.
Although
the
optimistic
has
a
slight
increase
and
again
we
see
in
23
and
24,
under
all
scenarios
declines,
ranging
from
about
20
17
million
dollars
to
42
million
dollars.
F
Now
they
all
all
the
other
remaining
accounts
are
the
motor
vehicle
license
the
operators,
the
weight
distance,
the
investment
and
the
other
there's
not
much
variability
between
these
and
two
of
those,
the
investment
and
the
operators.
We
don't
have
alternative
forecasts
for
those.
So
looking
at
those
as
a
group,
the
change
from
august
fairly
small
they're
all
increases
for
the
current
year,
approximately
four
and
a
half
million
dollars
next
year,
a
million
and
a
half
to
two
million,
and
slightly
more
at
roughly
eight
million
dollars
for
those
accounts
as
a
whole.
F
So,
looking
at
the
bottom
line,
the
fuels
and
the
usage
with
the
august
forecast
on
top
compared
to
the
october.
In
august,
we
had
2.6
bottom
line.
We're
now
calling
for
a
2.9
percent
increase
with
the
fuels
slightly
higher
and
the
usage
lower
same
holds
true
for
23
and
24
were
road,
but
we
were
nine
tenths
of
a
percent
increase
in
23
in
august.
Now
we
have
a
decline.
F
F
That's
all
I
have
for
that.
If
you
want
to,
we
can
pull
up
the
blending
sheet
to
look
at
more
details
or.
A
A
B
I
think
the
main
the
main
thing
is
going
to
be
that
december.
Look
at
the
fuels
tax
rate
that
that
david
sinclair
was
talking
about
we,
we
should
have
some
more
updated
information
from
ihs
market
which
could
potentially
affect
the
fuels
tax,
but
I
feel
like
with
the
information
we
have.
Both
the
fuels
and
usage
have
been
right-sized
properly.
B
Yeah
from
my
perspective,
there's
been
a
lot
of
a
lot
of
discussion
on
it,
not
much
movement
on
it.
Obviously
you
know
we
we've
looked
at
legislation
in
the
past.
B
There
have
been
different
proposals
for
how
to
you
know,
get
at
the
fact
that
we're
changing
from
internal
combustion
world
to
a
electric
and
at
least
hybrid
world
and
and
the
use
of
fuels,
is
going
to
go
down
and-
and
you
know,
the
the
ability
of
fuels
to
to
fund
the
needed
repairs
on
the
roads
may
be
in
jeopardy.
Pending.
You
know
the
the
wholesale
price
of
fuel,
but
been
a
lot
of
discussion.
There
hasn't
been
any
action.
Okay,.
A
F
Yeah
just
quickly
in
the
last
year
or
two
they
did
have
a
task
force.
I
guess
in
the
transportation
committee
and
they've
brought
in
people
from
other
states
to
talk
about
alternative
taxing
situations,
but
I
don't
know
that
anything
has
yet
come
with
that.
Yet
it's
been
more
information
gathering.
A
So
have
we
settled
on
the
control
for
this.
G
B
Okay,
john
and
I'll
duly
note
your
preference
on
that,
and
we
do
have
one
last
remaining
piece
of
business,
which
will
be
fairly
short,
but
we
do
have
to
talk
about
the
msa
master
settlement
agreement
for
tobacco
payment.
So
I'm
going
to
bring
michael
back
up
for
one
slide.
I
believe
that's
right.
A
F
C
A
C
We
have
not
received
any
new
information
that
would
that
would
cause
the
msa
slides
to
be
changed
at
today's
presentation.
However,
I
do
anticipate
by
december.
We
will
hear
some
updated
information
and
the
numbers
probably
will
be
changing
then
so,
but
for
now
there's
no
reason
to
change
the
estimates
from
what
were
presented
in
august,
but
I
do
anticipate
the
numbers
changing
in
december
awful
lot
of
work
to
say
that
okay,
thank
you.