►
From YouTube: Summit Webinar | Preview of November State Elections
Description
On Nov. 6, voters will decide thousands of legislative seats, dozens of governors and over 100 state ballot questions. Is major political change coming to the states? NCSL’s experts will break down the data and discuss the trends and key issues that are going to frame the 2018 election.
A
I'm
gonna
cover
statewide
ballot
measures
here,
I'm
gonna,
do
it
a
big
overview?
I'm
gonna
move
pretty
fast,
ask
questions
after
we
present,
probably
at
the
end
here
for
those
in
the
audience
for
you
on
the
Internet
I.
Guess
you
can
contact
us
afterwards
when
you
see
our
contact
info
here
as
we
move
along
as
late
as
start,
though
I'm
just
gonna,
say
I
conferred
with
lots
of
NCSL
experts
about
these
measures,
there's
about
140
142
that
have
been
certified
to
appear
on
the
ballot.
A
There's
some
more
coming
down
the
line,
so
these
are
just
the
ones
that
are
kind
of
officially,
very,
very
likely
to
be
on
the
ballot.
A
few
of
them
are
potentially
being
challenged
in
court,
but
we
have
NCSL
experts
on
all
sorts
of
topics.
So
of
some.
A
lot
of
the
commentary
I'm
given
today
is
to
their
great
work.
So
we
definitely
need
to
give
them
credit
here
as
well.
A
A
Okay,
so
we
got
24
states
to
have
the
citizen
initiative
process
plus
if
someone
said
26
we've,
given
you
that
too,
there's
two
states
that
only
allow
the
popular
veto,
the
popular
referendum
right
and
some
of
those
24
also
allow
popular
referendum,
but
not
all
of
them.
So
here's
what
it
looks
like
real,
quick.
We
have
the
24
states
in
purple
here
with
the
citizen
initiative
and
those
two
states
with
a
referendum
only
and
you
can
find
all
that
information
on
our
websites
on
our
web
pages.
A
So
there's
some
pros
and
cons
in
the
initiative
process
right
have
appropriate
voter
frustration
right.
They
can
directly
cut
that
direct
democracy,
sort
of
an
idea
you
having
a
more
engaged
citizenry.
You
kind
of
can
do
higher
voter
turnout
to
pay
on
what
ends
up
on
a
ballot
in
a
given
year.
You
can
also
act
as
a
checked
on
government
and
holds
elected
officials
accountable,
especially
with
that
popular
veto,
but
also
with
just
kind
of
general
citizen
initiatives.
A
One
theme
I'll
kind
of
touch
on
here
is
that
the
threat
of
an
initiative
or
the
movement
towards
an
initiative
by
either
citizens
or
larger
groups,
whether
they're,
nonprofits
or
corporations
or
businesses,
those
likes-
can
also
pressure
legislators
to
act
on
that
issue
cons.
You
have
unaccountable
policymaking
in
a
lot
of
ways.
Right,
I
think
I
have
a
great
idea.
I
get
enough
people
to
sign
a
sheet
of
paper.
It
goes
to
the
voters.
They
maybe
give
it
a
degree
of
thought
vote
on
it.
A
It
passes
if
it's
a
turns
out
to
be
a
really
bad
thing
right,
there's
nothing
you
can
do
to
me
later
on
I
mean
you
can
send
me
bad
mail,
I!
Guess
if
you
want
or
something
like
that,
but
there's
no
real
accountability
like
there
is
for
a
legislature
that
passes
Paulson.
You
can
vote
people
in
that
office.
You
also
have
it
as
a
kind
of
an
unvetted
right
that
contributes
to
that
sort
of
unaccountable
policymaking.
That
legislators
really
give
right
to
the
process.
That
goes
through
this
really
intense
committee
process
in
both
chambers.
A
That
whole
thing
right.
You
have
spending.
That
is
something
that
we're
gonna
see
addressed
in
a
couple
of
about
measures
here
today,
they're
gonna
be
on
the
ballot
right.
You
have
high
amounts
of
spending
on
these
and
then
again
that
voter
information
may
be
inadequate
right.
You
may
get
competing
ads
and
television
and
all
of
those
things
saying
Cavelli
contradictory
things
about
a
measure.
So
how
many
do
we
have
this
year
so
far?
And
these
exact
tallies
as
of
Friday
right,
I
mean
I,
think
one
or
two
have
been
certified
to
be
on
the
ballot.
A
This
year
again
we
have
89
legislative
referendums.
This
is
when
the
legislature
passes
something
to
place
the
item
on
ballot
right.
So,
even
though
you
know
I
mentioned
people
earlier
this
week
and
go
talk
about
ballot
measures
on
Thursday
coming
here
and
yet
our
spokes,
for
maybe
a
state
that
said,
oh
well,
we
don't
we
don't
have
initiatives
in
my
state
that
doesn't
apply,
but
it
does
because
every
state
can
place
the
constitutional
amendment
on
the
ballot
right.
A
49
of
the
states
have
to
Delawares
the
only
state
that
doesn't
have
to
put
it
before
the
voters
to
do
a
Constitution
amendment
and
then
those
other
24
states
can
do
those
citizen
initiatives
where,
as
far
we
have
40
of
those
right,
we
have
for
the
popular
vetoes
or
popular
referendums,
and
then
there's
this
other
interesting
category.
This
constitution
revision
Commission,
which
I'll
mention
here
and
then
one
advisory
question
to
which
you'll
see
here
on
this
other
column.
Here
of
total
about
104,
we
have
92
constitutional
amendments.
33
of
them
are
statutes.
A
A
Ohio
did
a
redistricting
commission,
Oklahoma,
passed
legalization
of
medical
marijuana
Oregon
had
a
Medicaid
tax
I'm
in
preparation
for
when
that
state
has
to
do
a
higher
percentage
of
pain
for
Medicaid
as
part
of
the
ACA
and
then
Wisconsin
voted
on
if
they
wanted
to
eliminate
the
position
of
state
treasurer
and
that
one
also
failed
for
the
two
of
the
eleven
so
quickly
I
want
to
cover
some
themes
before
I
touch
on
the
states.
Here
we
have
the
usual
suspects
right.
A
We
got
bond
issues,
we
got
infrastructure
a
couple
gambling
one
really
interesting
to
implement
I'll
mention
we
get
their
public
school
funding
issues,
pensions,
medical
marijuana
and
Marcie's
law
in
several
states
and
I'll
discuss
quickly
with
Marcy's
laws.
In
a
moment,
then
we
have
some
rare,
fair
right
without
redistricting
reform
in
a
number
of
states.
Here
we
have
Medicaid
expansion.
In
a
couple
states.
We
have
the
Rhian
French
Iseman
of
folks
with
felony
convictions
in
a
state
we
have
voter
ID
rank-choice
voting.
A
You
might
see
a
theme
there
right
of
a
lot
of
election
related
issues
going
on.
We
also
have
ethics
coming
up
in
a
few
different
states.
How
to
raise
taxes
specifically
making
it
harder
to
raise
taxes
is
coming
up
in
several
states
and
that's
been
a
bit
of
a
trend
right
and
then
we
also
have
a
feminine-hygiene
sales
tax
issue.
Then
I'll
touch
on
in
a
second
and
then
we
have
a
few
really
hot
button
issues
and
abortion
restrictions
are
coming
up.
In
two
states
we
got
the
Ten
Commandments
on
public
property
in
a
state.
A
We
got,
we
got
a
new
word,
hopefully
for
some
of
you,
it
was
a
new
word
for
me.
For
me.
Anadromous
fish
habitat
right
in
terms
of
protecting
and
permitting
for
salmon,
essentially
salmon
type
fish
is
how
I
think
of
that
there,
and
here
we
see
an
Alaska
an
example
of
that
pressure
from
outside
forces.
The
Alaska
Legislature
actually
passed
another
or
citizen
initiative.
There's
a
such
thing
called
an
indirect
status
initiative
that
they
put
today
at
Alaska
Legislature.
A
This
other
one
dealt
with
ethics
and
things
like
that
and
the
legislature
actually
passing
a
bill
that
was
close
enough
related
so
that
it
didn't
have
to
go
to
the
ballot
right
and
other
states
have
had
this
happen,
especially
this
year,
California
Colorado
Utah,
several
states
have
kind
of
looked
at
this
and
either
put
a
competing
measure
on
the
ballot
or
something
like
that
or
passed
something
themselves.
So
then
California
a
couple
one
of
the
two
big
states.
Here
we
got
seventeen
measures
and
all
five
have
already
been
voted
on.
A
We
have
a
repeal
of
the
2017
gas
tax
increase
and
talking
with
komova
and
still
experts,
Kevin,
Pula
and
Douglas
Schinkel.
They
see
this
is
a
national
proxy
issue
right
and
they
have
kind
of
tallied
a
lot
of
dollars
coming
in
from
the
conservative
side
here
looking
to
overturn
this
gas
tax
and
bounty
measures
are
often
used
to
to
help
turnout
voters
right.
So
if
you
get
a
issue
that
your
base,
your
side
is
really
passionate
about.
A
You
put
an
issue
on
the
ballot
for
that
reason:
to
turnout
voters,
they're
reducing
property
taxes
potentially
for
home
buyers
over
55.
The
fiscal
note
on
this
one
is
really
interesting:
potential
lost
revenue,
their
daylight
savings
time
issue.
More
and
more
people
seem
to
really
dislike
daylight
savings
time
changes
limiting
dialysis
revenue
is
kind
of
a
topic.
A
That's
gotten
a
little
bit
of
national
attention
and
then
affordable
housing,
I've
highlighted
too
there's
a
number
of
affordable
housing
initiatives
across
the
states
or
ballot
measures
across
the
states
on
there
and
then,
unfortunately,
the
splitting
California
into
three
states,
not
that
I
was
in
favor
of
it
or
anything.
I
just
think
it
was
a
really
interesting
thing
to
talk
about
over
drinks.
That
is
now
not
going
to
be
on
the
ballot
now,
so
that
one
will
not
be
voted
on.
The
courts
took
that
off
the
off
the
ballot.
A
Organ
has
a
number
of
interesting
ones.
They
already
voted
in
January
on
a
Medicaid
tax
they're
preparing
for
2020,
when
the
federal
government
will
only
cover
90%
of
that
Medicaid
expansion.
They
also
have
an
affordable
housing
measure.
That's
going
to
kind
of
an
interesting
when
I
hadn't
really
come
across
before
they're,
also
increasing
it,
making
it
harder
for
to
raise
taxes
for
the
state,
and
here
we
see
that
kind
of
quote-unquote
sanctuary
state
issue
as
one
of
the
ballot
measures
to
repealing
a
state
statute.
A
That's
been
on
the
books
for
about
30
years,
potentially
right
when
I
say
things
attention,
Eleazer
about
measure
to
be
voted
on
automatic
voter
registration
Nevada.
This
one's
a
little
interesting
citizen
initiative,
Ridge
'''l
II,
was
passed
vetoed
by
the
governor
announced
going
right
to
the
people
to
be
voted
on.
Here
we
have
a
sales
tax
exemption
for
feminine
hygiene
products,
the
tampon
tax
issue.
This
is
definitely
part
of
a
larger
trend
that
you've
seen
mostly
though
so
far,
through
kind
of
just
the
regular
legislative
process.
A
I
mean
you
got
a
couple:
energy
amendments
and
a
couple
other
things
here,
going
on
Nevada
Idaho,
two
measures
which
is
eight
expansion.
It's
one
of
seventeen
states
without
and
then
I
love
their
other
one.
It's
to
authorize
betting
on
historical,
as
in
already
happened,
horse
races
that
you'll
watch
on
video
I.
Don't
really
have
my
head
wrapped
around
that
yeah.
It
seems
to
me
there's
an
easy
way
to
figure
that
one
out,
but
maybe
not
so
you
got
Montana,
has
a
couple
interesting
ones.
A
A
few
states
are
looking
to
raise
revenue
for
their
higher
education
systems.
You're
they're
also
looking
to
regulate
the
ballot
collection
measure.
So
if
you
vote
by
mail,
there's
a
concern
about
sending
people
around
to
just
collect
balance,
and
if
you
go,
do
that
and
then
turn
them
in
right.
If
you
do
that,
there's
a
concern
from
some
folks
who
call
it
ballot
harvesting
that
you
know
hey
I'll.
Let
me
collect
your
ballot
for
you
and
then
I
could
be
voting
it
for
you
too.
A
All
right,
that's
the
kind
of
concern
they're
also
gonna
increase
puts
possibly
their
tobacco
taxes
to
raise
healthcare
funds.
A
number
of
states
are
actually
doing
this
as
well
kind
of
again
address
an
aging
population
in
a
lot
of
states
and
then
rehabilitation
plans
for
new
hard
rock
mining,
not
the
Hard,
Rock
Cafe,
but
new
hard
rock.
My
you
see
here
in
the
picture
where
you
need
to
have
rehabilitation
plants
for
the
life
of
the
mine.
You
also
have
then
in
Utah,
has
a
number
of
measures
that
are
really
interesting.
A
They're
gonna
allow
the
legislature
possibly
to
call
special
sessions.
It's
only
one
of
15
states
that
the
governor
can
only
call
those
they
have
one
non-binding
question
on
a
gas
tax
they're,
possibly
going
to
legalize
medical
marijuana.
They
give
a
30
second
state
to
do
that.
They
have
redistricting
commission
issue
on
the
ballot
here.
One
of
four
states
right
that
will
or
have
had
that
there's
a
fifth
state
that
will
likely
have
it
and
they're
also
doing
Medicaid
expansion
as
an
issue
along
with
Idaho
there.
A
Idaho
has
Arizona
rather
has
a
school
voucher
expansion,
popular
referendum.
This
is
a
law
that
was
passed
and
expanded
school
vouchers
in
the
state
and
has
been
a
really
contentious
issue.
There
that's
been
in
two
courts,
lots
of
folks
protesting
as
you'll,
see
here
and
they're,
also
going
to
do
a
little
bit
of
campaign,
finance
reform
and
a
reform
to
the
pension
systems
for
corrections,
officers
kind
of
trying
to
get
their
hands
wrapped
around
a
really
major
budgetary
issue
for
the
states.
New
Mexico
is
also
doing
a
state.
A
Ethics
Commission
issue
on
one
of
our
co-chairs
of
our
election
redistricting
committee
here
and
CSL
was
suggesting
that
that
how
that
set
up
might
be
a
recipe
for
hyper
partisanship
in
that
state,
Ethics
Commission
about
how
those
members
are
selected
to
be
on
there.
So
he's
not
sure
if
it
would
function
and
very,
very
well
they're
they're
also
going
to
do
several
bond
measures
like
a
lot
of
states
are
doing
and
they
have
a
technical
fix
issue
for
the
judicial
appeal
process.
A
Colorado
has
some
interesting
ones
where
they're
going
to
possibly
reduce
the
age
qualification
for
the
General
Assembly
down
from
25
down
to
21.
They
would
become
the
15th
state
to
reduce
it
to
that
level.
Right
now,
they're
in
the
biggest
chunk
of
states
with
the
25
age
group
as
an
age
restriction
there
there's
also
an
elections
fix
it's
kind
of
interesting.
A
So
you
can
take
pay
attention
to
that
one
and
this
one
I
wanted
to
use
to
highlight
NC
s,
l's
major
project,
an
occupational
licensing
when
folks
leave
the
prison
oftentimes
it's
hard
for
them
to
enter
work
forces
because
there's
there's
a
bans
or
limits
on
former
prisoners,
folks
with
convictions
from
entering
the
workforce
to
get
a
occupational
license
right,
and
so,
if
you're
interested
in
that,
we
have
major
reports
coming
out
on
that.
So
you
can
check
that
out.
Oklahoma
already
and
I
should
say
past
their
past
medical
marijuana
legalization.
A
They
also
have
a
Marsy's
law,
crime,
victims,
Bill
of
Rights,
Amendment
and
they're,
also
looking
to
approve
property
taxes
for
public
schools,
they're
kind
of
continuing
to
do
that.
South
Dakota
has
several
measures
on
the
initiative
process
itself.
I
hinted
at
this
already
they're,
looking
to
possibly
ban
out-of-state
contributions
to
ballot
questions.
We
do
not
offer
legal
advice,
but
I've
talked
to
some
folks
at
NCSL
and
they
are
concerned
not
concerned.
That's
the
wrong
word.
A
There
they're
wondering
how
constitutional
that
may
end
up
to
be,
but
they're
looking
to
kind
of
make
it
a
little
bit
harder
for
some
of
these
initiatives
to
go
along.
They
revised
the
campaign
finance
lobbying
initiative
process.
They'd
increased
to
55
percent,
like
Colorado
recently
did
to
pass
constitutional
amendments
and
they'd,
add
a
single
subject,
rule
and
they're.
Also
in
that
tobacco
tax
increase,
North
Dakota
is
doing
a
major
Ethics
Commission
ballot
measure.
Here
you
can
see
Deana
butcher
the
amendment
sponsor
here.
A
Turning
in
the
signatures
Wisconsin
I
mentioned,
they
tried
to
eliminate
the
state
treasurer
position,
but
Matt
hare
pictured
is
still
there,
so
congratulations,
Matt,
so
Michigan
may
become
the
11th
state
to
legalize
marijuana
for
recreational
use.
They're
also
going
to
look
at
hemp
to
a
number
of
states
are
kind
of
looking
at
hemp
as
a
potentially
budgetary
increase
right
for
for
their
state
and
then,
as
I
mentioned
right,
four
states
already
will
have
or
have
had
in
one
state
in
one
case,
redistricting
commissions
and
there's
a
fifth
state,
probably
coming
down
the
line.
A
They're
verifying
the
signatures
now
Ohio
is
that
one
state
that
has
all
red
voted
to
reform
its
redistricting
process
and
it's
involves
the
Commission,
but
it's
not
quite
like
the
other.
So
it's
really
interesting
to
dive
into
that.
They
also
have
a
drug
decriminalization
reform
measure
that
might
have
interest
to
folks
to
check
out
that
will
be
voted
on.
A
November
Indiana's
gonna
have
a
state
balanced
budget
amendment
folks
on
each
side
of
the
aisle
here,
see
this
as
from
a
different
thing:
the
state
already
bans
taking
on
state
debt
in
most
cases,
but
not
all
so
you
can
see.
This
is
a
good
government
measure
from
one
side
or
possibly
mudding
the
budgetary
waters,
making
her
to
use
reserve
funds,
for
example,
is
one
point
from
one
side:
Missouri
has
already
passed,
right-to-work
legislation.
They
would
be
doing
a
popular
referendum
on
right-to-work.
It
would
be.
A
Will
it
remain
one
of
28
states
that
have
passed
that
or
not
they're
also
doing
one
on
the
gas
tax,
and
it
would
be
the
29th
state
since
2013
to
increase
the
gas
tax.
They
also
have
a
really
interesting
bingo,
one
that
you
can
find
me
after
to
ask
about
Perkins
doing
photo
voter
ID,
trying
to
put
it
right
in
the
Constitution
third
time's.
The
charm
they've
had
some
troubles
in
court
and
so
now
they're
taking
it
right
to
the
people
to
kind
of
get
that
taken
care
of
Alabama.
A
One
of
our
two
states
with
abortion
policy,
amendments
on
on
their
ballot
measure
this
year,
looking
to
restrict
the
right
to
abortion
as
an
issue
right
they're,
also
looking
at
possibly
allowing
10
commandments
on
public
property.
Here
pictured
a
previous
instance
when
Alabama
has
placed
the
ten
commandments
on
public
property,
and
they
have
a
couple
other
amendments
here
that
are
a
little
more
specific
Weezy
and
I
have
several
I
think
these
are
all
legislative
referred
amendments,
ones
that
I
wanted
to
highlight
was
they
may
change
it
to
where
you
require.
A
You
would
require
unanimous
juries
for
felonies
convictions.
Right
now,
you
need
10
out
of
12
jurors,
to
convict
someone
of
a
felony.
They
also
have
an
affordable
housing
measure
and
talking
to
wait.
Vic
ler
and
Sarah
Hill
here
at
NCSL,
they've
seen
an
uptick
in
info
requests
about
affordable
housing.
It
seems
to
be
something
increasingly
on
folks
as
radar
and,
if
maybe,
if
you've
got
a
chance
to
walk
around
downtown
LA
you've
seen
how
that
might
be
an
issue.
A
They're
also
looking
to
prohibit
folks
with
felony
convictions
from
holding
public
office
for
five
years
and
then
a
couple
other
tax
measures.
Georgia
is
similarly
doing
some.
You
know
I,
don't
want
to
say
minor,
but
less
lightning-rod
sort
of
issues.
They
have
a
Marsy's
law
on
there
they're
doing
some
different
things
with
authorizing
property
taxes
and
the
like
school
district
funding
is
one
of
those
Florida
is.
The
really
really
interesting
case
is
here
on
really
interested
in
Florida.
One
of
their
major
ones
is
voting.
A
Rights
for
individuals
with
felony
convictions
would
be
able
to
vote
again.
It's
one
of
the
few
states
where
it
you
essentially
have
to
individually
apply
to,
in
this
case,
the
governor
to
to
get
your
right
to
vote
back
and
spend
a
court.
You
may
have
read
about
it
in
the
news
and
then
also
going
to
look
here
at
a
two-thirds
vote
needed
to
increase
taxes
in
the
state,
and
then
they
had
this
constitutional
revision
Commission,
which
is
an
automatic
thing.
It's
unique
to
Florida.
It
happens
every
20
years.
It's
I
think
a
37
member
commission.
A
They
go
around
the
state,
they
listen
to
people,
the
members
are
all
appointed,
except
for
maybe
one
they
may
all
be
appointed
and
they
put
out
a
number
of
measures
here
on
all
of
these
topics,
several
of
which
are
clumped
together.
For
example,
one
amendment
bans
offshore
drilling
and
vaping
indoors
as
one
amendment.
So
there
you
go
South
Carolina.
They
are
looking
to
make
the
state
superintendent
position
by
the
governor,
and
here
we
see
the
governor.
That's
all
I
got
on
South
Carolina,
but
North
Carolina
is
really
interesting.
A
34
34
states
so
far
request
to
require
a
photo
ID
to
vote.
They're
looking
to
put
that
in
the
state
constitution.
They
are
also
making
it
harder
to
raise
revenue
through
making
lowering
taxes.
In
this
case,
they
would
become
the
22nd
states
with
the
right
to
hunt
and
fish
right
in
the
state
constitution
and
then
there's
two
measures
here.
A
I've
highlighted
as
the
last
two
are
kind
of
big
lightning
issues
as
the
Democrats
and
Republicans
are
really
fighting
things
out,
Republicans
in
the
legislature,
with
a
Democratic
governor
who
has
the
power
to
do
some
things
with,
especially
with
commissions
and
vacancies
and
the
like
Kentucky.
Here
we
have
a
Marsy's
law
is
going
to
be
on
their
ballot.
This
is
all
called
a
crime
victims
Bill
of
Rights.
This
was
first
in
2008
in
California
and
has
really
been
making
pretty
steady
progress
across
the
states.
A
Since
then,
West
Virginia
is
one
of
our
two
states
with
abortion
on
the
amendment
and
then
they're
also
increasing
legislative
authority
over
state
judiciary,
the
state
judiciary
budget,
essentially
to
be
able
to
lower
that
if
they
choose
to
Virginia,
is
addressing
a
recurring
problem
that
a
number
of
states
have
kind
of
been
fighting,
possibly
increasingly
with
a
flood
abatement
property
tax
exemption
amendment.
Here
we
see
the
impact
to
some
of
that.
A
Some
cities
especially
have
kind
of
been
built
in
specific
places
that
that
see
flooding
as
a
recurring
issue,
so
they're
trying
to
help
help
folks
be
able
to
deal
with
that
issue
and
then
they're
kind
of
tweaking
a
really
popular
measure.
That's
been
in
a
number
of
states,
removing
a
restriction
on
the
place
of
residents
of
spouse
for
disabled
veteran
or
sometimes
you'll,
see
these
four
first
responder,
so
that
someone
can
move
and
still
have
that
tax
exception.
District
Columbia
was
the
ninth
state.
A
We
use
worst
state
because
it's
easier
since
2014
increase
in
general
minimum
wage
also
for
tipped
employees
as
I
understand
the
DC
City
Council
is
already
looking
to
overturn
that.
So
that
could
be
really
interesting.
Word:
Island,
three
bonds:
three
bond
measures,
good
for
Rhode,
Island,
Connecticut,
looking
at
a
transportation,
lockbox
amendment,
this
is
a
half
decade,
long
trend.
A
number
of
states
have
looked
to
do
these.
A
This
essentially
says
that
funds
that
are
supposed
to
go
towards
transportation
have
to
go
towards
transportation
and
then
they're
looking
to
make
it
require
approval
for
the
sale
or
transfer
of
public
lands.
There's
really
interesting.
Two
measures
in
New
Hampshire:
these
are
like
the
most
New
Hampshire
measures
you
could
ever
possibly
think
of
there's
a
by
part.
A
A
United
in
corporate
personhood
pain
already
voted
on
rank-choice
voting,
while
using
rank-choice
voting,
which
is
really
interesting,
and
it
also
going
to
look
to
enact
a
payroll
and
non
wage
income
tax
on
the
top
1.6
percent
of
earners
to
pay
for
a
universal
home
care
program
for
folks,
I
think
over
the
age
of
65,
although
I
may
have
the
age
wrong.
They're
also
gonna
do
for
bond
measures,
the
traditional
approach
to
infrastructure
in
Maine
and
does
anyone
know
who's
pictured
here,
Stephen
King
because,
as
my
wife
says,
Stephen
King
is
main
to
her.
A
She
always
jokes
that
we're
gonna
go,
find
him
and
get
his
his
autograph.
So
there
Stephen
King
for
you
I'm
the
elections,
redistricting
team.
We
have
the
canvass
newsletter.
We
have
lots
of
other
resources
on
almost
any
topic
there,
including
the
census
that
you
have
questions
about,
feel
free
to
contact
us.
Here's.
A
B
B
B
D
A
B
A
A
It
defines
victim
of
crime,
for
example,
being
notified
whenever
there's
a
hearing
related
to
your
case,
the
ability
to
be
heard
in
courtroom
whenever
there's
a
you
know,
public
hearing
issue
things
like
that
and
in
shrines
right
in
there
and
there's
a
list
of
items
that
you
can
go,
find
I'm
not
be
able
to
recall
them
off
top
my
head,
but
it
gives
the
those
crime
victims
the
ability
to
have
better
information
about
their
case
as
it
moves
through
the
courtroom.
So.
B
E
B
G
A
C
B
B
B
So
thank
you
for
being
here,
and
it
is
the
last
session
of
the
NCSL
conference
there's
a
couple
of
little
things
that
still
come
after
this
okay,
so
that
looked
like
something
was
going
to
happen,
but
it
didn't-
and
so
so
so
I
really
appreciate
you
being
here,
it's
hard
to
sort
of
get
a
lot
of
energy
going
and
this
in
this
cavernous
room,
but
we're
gonna
roll
with
it.
So
I
love
doing
this.
I
love
talking
about
the
state
elections
I'd
like
to
wander
around,
but
I
can't
do
that.
B
The
we
do
them
every
two
years,
perhaps
you're,
aware
of
that.
The
United
States
is
pretty
good
about
our
regular
biennial
elections
and
it's
always
a
big
year
in
the
States,
and
it
is
again
this
year
there
are
46
states
or
holding
state
legislative
elections
this
year.
Of
course
you
got
the
four
odd
year
states
my
see,
Tommy
Reynolds
is
here
from
one
of
them.
I
hope
you're
feeling
good
about
this
year's
elections
and
Mississippi
New
Jersey,
Louisiana
and
Virginia,
who
do
their
elections
in
the
odd-numbered
years
and
you've
got
a
handful
of
state.
B
Senate's
have
four
terms
and
they
all
run
at
the
same
time.
So
they
skip
over
every
two
years,
not
a
bad
idea
right
for
New
York.
Maybe
you
could
put
this
in
New
Mexico,
Minnesota,
Kansas
and
South
Carolina
fall
into
that
category,
so
only
the
house
is
up
in
those
states.
Although
Minnesota
has
an
interesting
special
election
this
year,
which
we'll
talk
about
so
there
are
36
governor's
races,
the
shoe
that's
sort
of
the
normal
normal
4-year
cycle,
that's
a
big
number
that
is
usually
in
the
off
year
of
the
of
the
presidential
cycle.
B
So
there
are
36
governors
and
I.
Rarely
say
this
I
wouldn't
I.
Don't
want
you
to!
Please
don't
tell
anybody
that
I
said
this,
but
it
might
be
a
bigger
year
on
the
governor
sides
of
the
legislature.
Side
I
think.
Usually,
the
legislative
elections
are
kind
of
the
Big
Kahuna,
but
maybe
this
year
it's
the
governor's
races
because
there's
a
lot
riding
on
those
governors
and
more
of
them
are
toss-ups
than
some
of
the
legislative
chambers.
B
You
know
I'll
get
to
that
in
a
second,
so
again,
a
six
thousand
and
sixty-six
legislative
seats
up
for
regular
election.
That's
about
82
percent
in
44
states
and
then
there's
four
states
where
only
one
chamber
is
up.
So
it's
a
big
election
year.
Where
do
we
stand
now?
There
are
31
states
that
are
in
the
GOP
column,
14
that
are
democratic
and
four
that
are
divided
between
the
two
parties.
Anybody
here
from
Minnesota
I
think
I
saw
well
Peter,
of
course,
and
yeah.
B
So
why
is
Minnesota
a
split
legislature,
because
we
know
that
the
Republicans
control
the
Minnesota
Legislature
well
through
a
series
of
events,
there's
a
vacancy
in
a
district
outside
of
st.
Cloud,
keep
me
honest,
Minnesotans
and
so
there's
they
say
it
vacancy.
So
it's
now
33
3333,
Republicans
and
33
Democrats.
So
it
is
technically
a
tide,
Senate
chamber,
as
today
there's
no
chance
for
a
session
before
November.
It
really
has
no
practical
impact
that
I'm,
aware
of,
although
again
we
have
Minnesota
experts,
you
could
ask
them
and
there
will
be
a
special
election.
B
This
fall
for
that
seat.
Talk
about
that
more
a
second
Nebraska's
19
abrasca
ng's
in
here.
No
that's
good.
It's
always
good
to
identify
the
state
we
can
make
fun
of
as
we
as
we
continue.
So
we'll
just
poke
fun
at
Nebraska
from
here
on
out.
No
the
Nebraskans
technically
run
as
non-partisans,
but
any
guess
as
to
what
party
sort
of
regally
runs
the
Nebraska
Legislature.
B
That
would
be
the
GOP,
so
I
have
what
I
call
the
O
and
then
again
we
show
that
the
New
York
legislature
is
democratic,
but
it's
not
so
here's
what
I
call
the
get
real
version
state
legislative
control,
because
it
factors
in
there's
a
coalition
in
the
Alaska
House,
where
for
Republicans,
have
sided
with
18
Democrats
and
they
functionally
control
the
Alaska
House
and
again
in
New
York.
There's
a
coalition
of
one
I
guess
now
one
Democrat
who
is
site
and
and
organizes
with
the
Republican
senator
felder
and
will
stay
with
me.
B
Pretty
much
is
a
Republican
in
terms
of
his
functioning
role
as
a
state
senator
and
there's
a
there's,
a
there's,
a
long
and
winding
tale
about
the
endocrine,
dependent,
Democratic
caucus,
eight
Democrats,
who
have
been
organizing
with
the
Republicans
in
New
York,
but
they
now
say
that
they
will
be
Democrats
next
time.
I
guess
they
just
you
know,
choose
every
day
after
every
election,
the
Connecticut
Senate
is
tied
and
then
Nebraska
is
really
Republican.
B
So
when
you
factor
that
in
thirty-one
Republican
states,
thirteen
democratic
states
and
six
that
are
divided
now,
interestingly,
this
is
the
most
Republican
states
in
American
history.
So
Republicans
are
at
their
highest
point
in
American
history
in
terms
of
control
of
legislatures,
in
terms
of
on
paper,
the
majorities
in
the
states
which
is
fascinating.
So
we
are
living
in
a
GOP
world
when
it
comes
to
state
legislature
control.
B
They
also
are
at
a
relative
high
point
in
terms
of
the
total
number
of
seats,
Republicans
control
over
55%
of
all
legislative
seats,
now
close
to
57%
Democrats
are
down
you
can
see.
This
is
as
including
some
of
the
special
elections
we've
had
this
year.
Democrats
are
down
to
about
forty
three
percent
of
all
state
legislative
seats.
Who
knows
how
many
legislative
seats
there
are
six
thousand
sixty
six
are
up
this
year.
B
So,
even
though
this
is
sort
of
relatively
speaking,
one
of
the
strongest
periods
in
American
history
for
the
GOP,
it
is
nowhere
close
to
the
strength
that
Democrats
had
back
in
the
1970s
before
a
sort
of
longest,
a
decline
into
the
Gingrich
revolution
in
1994
and
then
parody
for
about
a
decade,
and
now
we've
seen
the
Republican
surge
over
the
last
several
elections.
Governor's
party
there
are
33
Republican
governors,
16
Democrats
have
one
independent,
that's
a
Governor.
Walker
in
in
Alaska
is
Walker
right
there.
B
So
and
then,
when
you
combine
it
all
together,
you've
got
25
Republican
states,
six
that
are
democratic
and
19
that
are
divided
and
I'm
sort
of
taking
into
account.
You
know,
though,
get
real
burrs
and
the
state
legislatures
before
so
that's
kind
of
where
we
stand
heading
into
this
election.
There
are
a
number
of
dynamics
that
will
play
into
this
and
the
most
I
think
the
most
compelling
reason
why
this
is
almost
certainly
going
to
be
a
democratic
year
at
the
state
level
level.
It's
just
the
history
of
it.
B
There
are
29
midterm
elections
since
1902
and
27
of
those
the
party
in
the
white
house
loses
seats
in
state
legislatures.
It's
about
as
much
of
a
take
it
to
the
bank
kind
of
trend
that
you
can
find
in
American
politics,
27
out
of
29
part
of
the
white
house,
lose
the
seats
in
state
legislatures
to
the
tune
of
on
average
410
seats
in
the
midterm.
So
the
party,
the
president's
party,
loses
roughly
410
seats
on
average.
In
fact,
I've
got
on
my
slide.
B
B
So
there
are
two
exceptions:
1934
we're
in
the
teeth
of
the
Great
Depression
and
the
Democrats
under
FDR
have
huge
gains
in
state
legislators
over
a
thousand
the
biggest
gain
of
all
time,
cruisers
only
two
and
then
as
we're
ramping
up
to
war
in
Iraq
in
2002,
post
9/11
Republicans
actually
gained
seats
in
legislatures
in
2002.
It
was
a
rough
set
of
midterms
for
President
Obama
and
the
Democrats
losing
over
700
seats
in
2010
and
there's
a
lot
of
question
about.
B
B
So
let
me
write
down,
so
what
do
you
think
about
the
the
battlegrounds
is
that
there
are
relatively
fewer
than
normal
and
that's
because
Republican
advantages
are
so
strong
in
a
number
of
states,
so
states
that
we
would
normally
sort
of
see
in
the
battleground
column
for
state
legislatures
aren't
necessarily
showing
up
unless
there
is
a
big
wave.
So
the
whole
question
here
is:
what
is
the
size
of
the
wave,
because
I
will
tell
you
there
will
be
wave.
The
Democrats
are
going
to
have
a
wave
this
year.
B
G
B
B
I'm
sorry,
three
Republicans,
who
vote
with
in
which
make
it
22
18
with
a
Democratic
coalition
but
it'll,
be
a
very
competitive
race
for
the
governor
could
be
a
three-way
race
for
the
governor,
the
and
so
the
Democrats
are
gonna
have
to
work
hard
in
some
ways.
This
is
an
opportunity.
This
is
a
pickup
opportunity
for
Republicans,
even
though
on
paper
they
have
the
numerical
advantage,
they
could
win
control
of
the
Alaska
house.
B
So,
interestingly,
alphabetically
the
first
one
I
talk
about
is
actually
a
Republican
possible
pick
up
and
I
said
was:
is
a
democratic
wave
year
of
some
size,
the
Arizona
Senate?
It's
been
a
while,
since
the
Arizona
Legislature
has
been
sort
of
on
the
battleground
in
play
list,
but
it's
13
Democrats
and
17
Republicans.
There
are
three
Senate
districts
in
Arizona
that
the
Republican
won
by
less
than
10%,
so
the
5%
switch
flipped
that
so
it's
you
know,
definitely
get
ammunition
to
watch.
B
Arizona
I,
don't
have
the
Arizona
House
on
here,
but
it's
certainly
possible
that
if
it's
a
big
way,
if
you
see
the
Arizona
House
show
up
on
the
battleground
chart,
the
Colorado
Senate
is
identical
to
the
Maine
Senate.
There
are
18
Republicans
and
17
Democrats
in
both
the
Colorado
and
Maine
Senate,
so
both
of
those
they're,
the
top
of
the
battleground
list
where
Republicans
are
hanging
on
to
the
majority
by
thread
the
carl's
Senate
there.
B
So
if
you
had
to
say,
there's
a
state
that
the
Democrats
are
really
looking
they're
chops
about,
it
would
probably
be
the
Colorado
Senate
and
but
the
core
governor's
race
is
sort
of
still
in
the
toss-up
category,
so
it
doesn't
mean
Democrats
could
wind
up
with
full
control
in
Colorado.
Now
this
is
interesting
again
I'm
doing
this.
Well
then,
there's
Connecticut,
which
is
currently
tied,
18
Democrats,
18
Republicans.
So
you
could
see
that
a
state
that
could
go
either
way,
but
I
think
this
is
one
where
the
Democrats
are
feeling
fairly
good.
B
There
are
a
number
of
districts
in
that
Connecticut
Senate
that
are
up
this
year,
that
Hillary
Clinton
won
so
I
think
they
feel
pretty
good
about
winning
the
majority
back
in
the
Connecticut
Senate,
the
Florida
Senate.
This
is
the
odd
one.
I
think
this
is
interesting
too,
and
it
may
just
be
a
coincidence.
B
In
1992,
every
single
legislative
chamber
in
the
south
was
controlled
in
the
Democratic
Party.
They
had
a
majority
in
every
single,
but
every
single
chamber
the
south
was
Democrats.
The
first
chamber
the
South
to
go.
Publican
was
the
Florida
Senate.
So
now
we're
seeing
Florida
Senate
back
on
the
on
the
battleground
table
as
a
possible
Democratic
pickup.
B
It's
probably
longer
shot
category
of
these
battleground
states
that
have
on
here,
but
it
is
certainly
within
the
realm
of
possibility,
depending
on
the
size
of
the
wave,
the
Republicans
lost
a
seat
last
year
in
a
special
election,
and
so
it's
now
23
Republicans
16
Democrats,
there's
one
Republican
vacancy.
So
it's
really
24
16.
There
are
three
districts
that
Hillary
Clinton
would
in
those
Florida
Senate
districts.
So
it's
certainly
one
that
I
think
would
be
the
maybe
the
big
prize
for
the
for
the
Democrats.
B
If
they
could
flip
that
and
maybe
start
some
sort
of
trend
back
in
the
South
talked
about
the
Maine
Senate
just
a
little
bit.
All
the
seats
are
up.
It's
18
Republicans
17
Democrat,
unlike
Colorado.
All
the
seats
are
up
not
just
half
the
chamber
and
again
there
are
a
number
of
Clinton
districts
but
they're.
Also
interesting
in
Maine,
there
are
four
Democratic
senators
in
districts
that
Donald
Trump
won,
so
Maine
could
really
kind
of
be
a
battleground
for
both
states,
the
Minnesota
Senate.
Now
again
it's
a
st.
B
Cloud
district
and
and
I
look
tough,
but
it
was
about
I,
think
fish
5-1
like
70/30,
or
something
it's
a
pretty
solid
Republican
district,
so
I
have
some
that
I
really
debated
whether
or
not
to
put
the
Minnesota
Senate
on
here
is
a
battleground
state,
but
you
know
them
in
the
climate
and
how
some
of
the
special
elections
have
changed.
It
is
certainly
a
something
you
got
to
pay
attention
to,
because
the
Minnesota
Senate
in
theory
could
certainly
flip
New
Hampshire
House.
There
are
400
members
in
the
New
Hampshire
House
I
assume.
B
Most
of
you
are
aware
of
that.
It
is
I,
think
there's
a
you
have
to
serve
in
the
house
at
some
point
in
your
life.
If
you
live
in
New
Hampshire's,
my
understanding,
that's
half
people
here
review
fall
right.
There
they're
their
districts
are
about
the
size
of
a
big
high
school
in
Los
Angeles,
and
so
it's
like
running
for
class
president
I
guess
at
a
giant
high
school
right
now
it's
227
Republican,
173
Democrats.
The
Democrats
need
28
seats
to
flip
the
New
Hampshire
House
back.
B
It
has
been
one
of
the
most
come
pivoting
chambers
of
all
state
legislative
chambers
and
Hampshire.
House
has
gone
back
and
forth
and
number
of
times
in
the
last
four
or
five
three
of
the
last
six
elections.
It's
flip
from
one
party
to
the
other,
so
New
Hampshire's
definitely
want
to
keep
an
eye
on
the
New
Hampshire
Senate,
also
very
close
14
Republicans
10
Democrats.
All
the
seats
are
up
and
Democrats
only
need
to
Eisley
to
tie
it
and
again
there
are
two
districts
that
Hillary
Clinton
won.
B
So
those
are
pretty
pretty
low-hanging
fruit,
I
think.
From
some
perspective
we
talked
about
the
New
York
Senate
Democrats
only
need
one
seat
to
sort
of
give
them
what
would
appear
to
be
a
functional
majority,
and
then
it
would
be
up
to
this
independent,
independent
Democratic
caucus,
the
IDC
as
it
is
called
as
to
would
they
hold
their
alliance,
that
they've
met
with
the
governor
and
stay
on
the
Democratic
side
of
the
fence,
or
not
so
definitely
in
New,
York
Senate,
the
Washington,
House
and
Senate
are
both
within
two
seats.
B
Democratic
majorities
and
I
put
them
on
there
on
the
battleground
list.
Democrats
are
most
likely
going
to
hold
on
to
both
of
those
chambers
unless
something
really
changes
between
now
and
November
and
then
finally,
the
Wisconsin
Senate,
where
the
Democrats
have
picked
up
two
seats
in
special
elections,
so
they
are
sort
of
on
the
proverbial
roll.
It's
only
18,
Republicans
and
15
Democrats.
B
B
There
are
a
lot
of
interesting
ones
here
and
we
don't
have
time
to
talk
about
it.
I
think
perhaps
the
most
wishing
to
me
is
Wisconsin,
where
the
well,
it's
not
tosses,
but
it's
in
the
now
lean
Republican
category,
it's
sort
of
on
the
fence
and
thank
you,
sir,
and
you
know
Governor
Walker-
is
there:
are
two
polls
now
showing
him
behind
the
potential
Democratic
nominee
eavers
and
then
in
Georgia?
B
There
are
now
two
public
polls
showing
Stacey
Abrams
with
a
slight
lead
over
Secretary
of
State
Matt
Kemp
won
the
primary
and
runoff
just
about
a
week
ago.
So
those
are
two
meet
the
most
interesting
of
these,
but
there's
a
lot
of
interesting
stories
if
I
had
time
to
get
into
some
of
these
governor's
races.
So
then,
and
again,
I
hate
to
say
this,
but
there's
probably
as
much
or
more
action
on
the
governor's
side,
this
time
than
the
Democratic
Tsar,
that
on
the
governor
and
the
governor's,
then
the
legislative
side
of
the
equation.
B
So,
let's
oh
and
so
a
couple
reasons
why
these
elections
matter,
because
you
know
states
control
roughly
one
and
a
half
trillion
dollars
in
public
spending
every
year.
So
it
matters
because
you
know
legislatures
and
I
know
we
have
some
here.
You
guys
are
doing
the
stuff
that
matters
to
people
in
constituencies
and
and
but
it
also
matters
who
controls
States,
because
redistricting
looms
on
the
horizon
is
Kim
here,
I
thought,
I
thought,
I,
might've
seen
Kim
brace
because
I
brought
us
from
Kim
actually
gave
him
credit.
B
So
we've
done
the
apportionment
projections
based
on
the
2017
population
estimates
I'm.
Sorry,
the
2000
yeah
2017
population
estimates.
So
there
are,
let's
see:
1
2
3,
4,
5,
6,
7,
8
9
seats
that
could
congressional
seats,
US
House
seat.
That
could
be
shifting
from
the
sad
blue
states
to
the
happy,
sunny,
yellow
states
on
this
map.
Do
you
anybody
see
a
trend
when
you
look
at
these
those
arrows
yeah?
B
They
all
go
from
the
Midwest
to
the
south
and
the
West
man
from
the
you
know
the
Northeast
New
York
and
Pennsylvania
and
Rhode
Island
not
only
has
two
seats,
but
they
could
be
giving
it
up.
Montana
only
has
one
they
could
be
their
second
one.
So
of
course,
and
still
in
most
of
the
cases,
even
with
initiatives
state
legislators
will
be
charged
with
drawing
these
congressional
maps.
So
it's
a
redistricting
election.
They
are,
there
are
800
a
little
over
800
legislative
seats
will
be
elected
in
this
election.
Who
will
draw
redistricting
Maps?
B
So
you
with
me
on
that,
in
other
words,
Senate
seats
that
are
not
up
again
for
four
years
about
800
of
them
will
be
chosen
in
this
election.
So
this
is
the
first
redistricting
election.
It's
the
little
Kahuna.
You
know.
Next
year's
the
big
two
years
is
the
big
kahuna
when
you
really
establish
who
draws
the
lines,
but
this
is
sort
of
the
little
Kahuna
redistricting
election.
So
let's
talk
about
a
couple
of
things
before
I
wrap
it
up.
The
president's
approval
rating
--fill
rating
is
sitting
at
41
point
three.
B
This
is
from
538
and
you
can
choose
your
favorite
presidential
approval
aggregate
website.
This
one
does
most
of
them,
even
if
you
take
make
it
likely
voters
it's
a
little
better
for
Trump,
you
take
it
just
all
adults,
it's
a
little
better
for
the
Democrats
and
but
here's
some
interesting
stuff
number
one.
There's
a
guy
named
Steve
Rogers.
Anybody
with
Steve
Rogers
is
Captain
America.
It's
a
different
Steve
Rogers,
because
I
wish
it
was
Captain
America,
but
there's
another
guy
named
Steve
Rogers,
who
was
a
professor,
the
University
of
st.
B
Louis,
not
Captain
America,
unfortunately,
or
maybe
he
is
so
anyway,
Steve
Rogers,
the
University
of
st.
Louis,
has
done
some
fascinating
academic
research
and
he
says
that
the
approval
rating
of
the
president,
regardless
of
what
party
has
a
three
times
greater
effect
on
a
legislative
election
than
anything
else.
The
legislature
does
in
their
campaign.
So,
in
many
places
in
many
ways
the
Pres,
the
populate,
the
popularity
of
the
president
will
rot
will
seek
or
raise
your
candidacy
as
a
dimmer
as
a
candidate
for
the
legislature.
B
No
president,
Trump
is
the
first
president
in
Potter,
poling
history,
so
gallops
been
doing
approval
since
1944
with
Harry,
Truman
and
Trump's
the
first
president,
who's
never
been
above
50%.
So
all
presidents,
at
some
point
in
their
presidency,
were
over
50%
many
of
them
way
over
50%.
So
this
is
one
of
the
things
that
Democrats
are
sort
of
banking
on
is
that
the
presence
of
proven
rating
is
sitting
right.
There
does
anybody
who
does
anybody
know
anybody
I
mean
this
until
there's
a
like
a
hundred
people
here
are
counted.
B
Does
anybody
know
anybody
who
just
hasn't
decided
how
they
feel
about
President
Trump
right
I
mean
you
guys
all
know
at
least
ten
people
who
you've
talked
to
about
their
opinion.
People
pretty
have
decided
if
they
like
this
president
or
don't
like
this
president
there's
not
a
lot
of
wiggle
room
and
his
number
look
at
this.
It's
as
steady
as
any
president
in
approval
rating
history.
It
has
been
in
that
tight
zone
between
roughly
40
and
45
percent
the
entire
time.
So
it's
not
like
people
are
moving
on
this
thing.
B
So
this
is
blooming
one
of
the
biggest
factors
three
times
greater
influence
than
anything
else.
You
do
is
the
president's
approval
rating.
So
will
the
present
age
between
now
there's
95
days
to
go?
We
will
see
here's
the
nourishing
thing
about.
We
also
hear
that
he
is
incredibly
popular
with
the
Republican
Party
with
his
base
and
that's
a
big
question:
will
that
help
Republican
candidates
in
legislative
elections
can
Trump
get
the
base
out
to
turnout
and
there's
some
there's?
B
Some
indications
that
it
will
he
can-
and
he
might
there's
also
some
danger
signs
there,
but
Pew
just
put
this
out
yesterday
and
I
had
to
throw
it
up
here
and
I,
don't
know
if
you
can
really
digest
it
from
where
you
are,
but
basically
wanting
it.
What
it's
telling
us
is
that
Obama
george
w
bush
clinton,
this
really
sort
of
starts
with
clinton,
where
there's
this
enormous
gap
on
approval
between
the
parties.
B
So
what
we
now
know
is
that
we
really
are
looking
into
these
sort
of
parliamentary
kinds
of
status
where
people
are
voting
more
party,
they
like
their
team
and
they
don't
like
the
other
team-
and
this
is
a
interesting
trend
and
I
think
will
have
an
effect
on
these
legislative
elections
so
and
teeing
up
a
couple
things.
This
is
consumer
sentiment
and
you
can
see
after
it's
been
in
that
sort
of
high
around
hundred
range
and
has
stayed
there.
So
you
know
consumers
are
generally
happy.
Americans
are
happy
about
the
economy.
B
Now
this
is
I'm
going
to
pause
on
this
for
a
second,
because
this
is
where
this
is
perhaps
the
most
interesting
slide
that
I
have
okay,
so
the
generic
ballot
test,
they
asked
voters
which
party
do
you
want
to
control
Congress
and
they
say
Republican
or
Democrat,
and
we
have
taken
that
data
and
taking
it
back
to
1944
when
there,
when
the
generic
ballot
test.
As
far
back
as
that
goes,
political
scientists
did
this
I
didn't
do
this
and
said
just
given
the
seat
swings
based
on
the
approval
or
the
generic
ballot?
B
What
would
you
expect
to
be
the
overall
seat
swing
in
state
legislatures?
So,
as
of
today,
it's
a
generic
ballot
set
Republicans
are
up
six.
The
Democrats
are
still
protected
to
gain
about
two
hundred
and
twenty
four
seats,
but
if
the
generic
ballot
test
says
we
like
Democrats
plus
6%,
then
Democrats
are
likely
to
gain
about
five
hundred
seats
and
legislators.
Just
on
the
mathematics
of
the
formula:
okay,
so
there's!
No!
It's
not
who
it
is
it's
just.
The
math
of
the
seat
swings
over
time
since
the
1940s.
B
So
you
know
what
the
generic
ballot
is
right
now,
seven
did
I
hope
you
said
sevens,
plus
it's
plus
seven
for
the
Democrats.
So
just
based
on
this
math
again,
we
see
a
wave
coming
for
the
Democrats.
No,
where
will
that
wave?
Be
that's
a
good
question
and
that's
what
really
matters
so
I'm
going
to
wrap
up.
There
are
95
days
to
go
and
there
are
some
reasons
why
Republicans
need
to
be
concerned,
and
they
are
because
I
know
a
lot
of
Republicans
who
are
here
one
there's
just
a
midterm
history.
B
It
is
clearly
sort
of
a
year
for
the
Democrats.
It
is
the
proverbial
wave
year.
There
are
more
Democratic
challengers
than
ever
before,
according
to
Steve
Rogers
who's
been
tracking
this
candidate
data,
so
Democrats
have
gotten
their
candidates
out
which,
by
the
way,
is
a
common
trend
in
midterm
elections.
The
party
in
the
White
House
since
I
have
a
tough
recruiting
year
and
that's
been
studied.
This
is
sort
of
academic
and
the
party
out
of
the
White
House
has
more
success.
B
B
Also
the
turnout
in
the
primaries
up,
not
across
the
board,
but
up
in
about
three-quarters
of
the
Democratic
primaries,
and
only
up
at
about
a
quarter
of
the
Republican
primary
so
there's.
Clearly,
the
voter
turnout
demonstrates
Democrats
are
more
enthusiastic
as
of
today
ninety
five
days
to
go
and
the
Republicans
the
special
elections.
It
has
been
a
very
good
year
and
a
half
for
Democrats
in
special
elections
and
by
the
way
they
are
outperforming
Hillary
Clinton
in
across
not
again
not
across
the
board,
but
they're
outperforming
Hillary
Clinton
in
the
2016
election.
B
In
these
special
elections,
by
around
you
know,
somewhere
between
five
and
ten
percent
generally
so
they
are
Democrats
are
clearly
doing
better
than
they
did
when
Hillary
Clinton
was
at
the
top
of
the
ticket
in
16,
they
have
won
24
special
flex
ins,
including
moving
the
Washington
Senate
into
the
Democratic
column,
by
flipping
a
Democrat
Republican
seat
in
a
Washington
special
election.
Then
there
were
the
odd
year
elections
where
Virginia
and
New
Jersey
Democrats
picked
up
15
seats
in
the
Virginia
House.
No
one
thought
they
could
do
that.
No
one
saw
that
coming.
B
So
is
this
a
Virginia
election?
Maybe
maybe
not,
but
by
the
way,
Republicans
have
also
won
a
handful
of
special
elections.
They've
had
a
couple
party
switchers
that
have
gone
their
way
and
then,
of
course,
Trump's
approval
rate.
It's
stuck
right
there
between
40
and
45
percent,
and
the
data
would
show
that
that
means
good
year
for
Democrats,
okay.
So
if
you're
the
Democrats,
why
should
be
concerned
about
and
few
Republicans?
What
are
you
excited
about?
B
One
you
do
have
Donald
Trump
and
he
can
motivate
the
base
and
turn
them
out
like
no
one
in
history.
I
mean
his
his
IV
in
the
base
of
the
Republican
Party
is
I,
think
unprecedented.
He
can
communicate
directly
to
them.
It
was
Twitter
feed
and
through
Fox
News,
in
a
way
that
no
other
prayers
it
has
been
able
to
do
in
other
most
presents
would
have
killed
to
have
that
ability
to
sort
of
get
their
base
turned
out
and
excited
about
an
election.
Now,
how
will
that
play
out?
We
don't
know
number
two.
B
President
Trump
has
said
that
he
is
going
to
campaign
six
days
a
week,
starting
in
September
I
think
he
said
so.
He
will
be
out
there
again
trying
to
get
the
base
turned
up
on
the
Republican
side.
They
also
all
the
economic
indicators.
Almost
all
there
was
a
little
bad
housing
data
yesterday
that
sort
of
spooked
the
markets
a
little
bit,
but
most
of
the
economic
data
is
pretty
dang
strong.
That
was
a
great
GDP
number.
B
There
certainly
will
not
be
another
GDP
number
before
the
election,
the
the
because
it
takes
a
lot
for
him
to
compute
it
you're
looking
and
thinking
there
will
be,
but
it
comes
out
like
a
month
after
the
quarter.
So
the
you
know,
the
jobless
numbers
are
great.
The
market
is
ok,
it's
up
like
15
percent
over
the
last
year.
It's
of
course
just
up
like
2%
year
today,
but
there's
a
lotta
there's
a
great
economic
message.
B
If
the
Republicans
can
harness
that
and
then
of
course,
they
have
the
districts,
the
Republicans
had
the
reassuring,
pin
for
the
most
part,
and
so
there
we're
still
running
in
districts
that
are
favorable
to
them
and
that's
a
that's
something
they
can
fall
back
on
so
is
their
wave
coming.
Yes,
there
is
the
question
is:
is
it
this
wave
or
is
it
this
wave?
And
you
know
right
now
we're
95
days
out?
B
We
just
don't
know,
but
we
do
know
that
we're
polarized
Charlie
Cook
has
a
great
had
a
fascinating
piece
of
date
on
this
in
2016
for
the
first
time
in
American
history,
every
US
Senate
race,
with
the
same
way
as
the
presidential
race
in
that
state
that
had
never
happened
before
so
tickets.
Plenty,
it's
not
happening
as
much
as
it
used
to
by
any
stretch
of
the
imagination,
so
I
I
just
have
all
these
little
things.
B
I
want
to
throw
out
there
I
think
I've
forgotten
about
half
of
them,
so
that's
it
I'm
wrapping
it
up,
I
could
say
thank
you
and
drive
safely
or
we
could
take
a
question
or
two:
does
anybody
have
a
question
Bob's
ready
to
clap
and
get
out
of
here,
I
think
when
the
don't
ask
a
question
out
of
obligation?
Yes,.
H
B
I
think
it
makes
a
big
difference
on
the
campaign
side
of
the
equation.
I
think
both
parties
have,
you
know,
continue
to
strategize
about
how
they
manage
their
particular
set
of
rules.
In
the
you
know,
inside
the
campaign
world
I
don't
know,
I
haven't
seen
anything
that
it's
changed.
You
know
kind
of
the
trends
of
who
has
the
advantage
or
who
doesn't
now
I
I
would
be
surprised
if
somebody's
des
said
that,
oh
this,
this
elections
mechanism,
this
tweak,
helps
us,
and
this
one
helps
us
win.
B
D
is
our
you
know,
elections,
administration,
legal
expert
law
expert,
so
I
can
tell
you
that
every
change
to
election
law
there's
some
team
of
people
who
run
it
through
the
partisan
calculator
and
say.
Is
this
going
to
help
us
or
hurt
us
and
I?
Had
this
theory
that
election
law
reform
only
happens
when
both
parties
think
like
well?
This
might
help
us,
or
this
might
hurt
this
I.
Don't
think
this
is
going
to
hurt
us.
B
You
know
because
it
parties
are
reluctant
to
do
things
to
the
process
that
we
were
gonna
have
a
deleterious
effect
on
them.
So
so
kind
of
an
I
don't
know
kind
of
answer,
but
I
don't
think
there's
any
you
know
dramatic
shift
and
like
which
party
has
advantage
based
on
the
mechanics
that
have
changed
very.
B
F
B
That's
that's
that's
sort
of
a
devil's
bargain.
Is
it
important
to
spend
the
money
mainly
because
you
don't
want
to
not
spend
the
money
and
find
out?
You
should
have
spent
the
money
and
every
time
you
lose
by
you
know,
100
votes
or
20.
You
know,
maybe,
if
I
just
done
that
mail
or
just
done
that
extra
spot.
Having
said
that,
Hillary
Clinton,
outspent,
Donald
Trump
by
I,
think
you
know
almost
double
so
a
lot
of
it
has
to
do
with
the
free
media
and
how
clever
you
are.
B
B
Small,
there
has
been
some
research
on
that
and
it
doesn't
hurt
to
have
a
competitive
governor's
race
and
a
well-funded
governor
cuz.
Then
you
benefit
from
the
geo
to
get
out
the
vote.
You
know
that
the
top
of
the
ticket
is
doing
and
I
think
it
definitely
helps
to
have.
If
you,
if
you
have
a
popular
incumbent,
you
know
running,
but
again
presidential
approval
matters
three
times
more
than
anything
else.
So
another
question:
yeah
I.
I
B
I
B
The
I
did
this.
That
was
that's
what
they
call
a
legacy
slide.
So
I
pulled
it
from
my
election
LAT
for
my
presentation
ten
years
ago,
because
I
wanted
to
use
those
arrows
and
I
had
to
readjust
them
for
this
year
and
ten
years
ago
you
know
California
get
a
district
and
they
were
unhappy
because
the
first
time
since
statehood,
the
California's
congressional
delegation
did
not
grow,
and
so
I
forgot
to
take
that
out
because
I
didn't
preview
it
so
you
caught
me,
did
you
see
how
fast
I
tried
to
move
yeah?
B
That
was
really
nice
catch?
Actually
because
I
didn't
you
know,
I'm
the
prepared
presenter
would
have
gone
through
their
slides
in
foreign
slideshow
and
would
have
seen
it
and
what
I
saw
I'm
like.
Oh,
that's
from
last
time
and
I
tried
to
yeah.
You
got
me
that
was
nice.
Did
anybody
see
the
typo
yeah?
That's
that's
great.