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From YouTube: James Johnson Jr.: NCSL Spring Forum 2013
Description
Demographics expert James H. Johnson Jr., Ph.D., from the University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler Business School, was interviewed by NCSL after his general session speech on "The Silver Tsunami" at NCSL's 2013 Spring Forum in Denver. He describes the effects of America's aging population on society and the economy, the role of immigrants and a future filled with "senior playgrounds."
B
One
we're
living
healthier
lives,
taking
better
care
of
ourselves,
eating
better
exercising
more
and
we
are
rebuilding
our
communities
in
a
way
to
facilitate
successful
aging
by
walking
trails,
jogging
trails,
biking,
trails
and
things
of
that
nature.
And
then
medical
advances
are
contributing
to
increased
longevity
in
our
population.
We
have
something
called
regenerative
medicine,
it's
in
its
infancy,
but
we
have
scientists
who've.
In
fact,
scientists
in
North
Carolina,
whose
regenerated
a
bladder.
B
So
if
your
bladder,
whereas
out,
will
build
your
new
in
a
kind
of
thing,
and
so
the
this
whole
notion
that
some
of
the
diseases
that
in
the
past
has
led
to
the
early
onset
of
death
that
we
may
have
medical
solutions
to
those
problems
that
enable
us
to
extend
life.
And
then
the
other
thing
is,
is
that
the
dis
contributing
to
aging
is
declining
fertility
among
the
native-born
population,
we're
having
fewer
children.
In
fact,
the
non-hispanic
white
population
has
had
below
replacement
level
fertility
for
about
20
years.
B
In
a
statistical
sense,
it
takes
2.1
kids
to
replace
yourself.
Non-Hispanic
white
rate
has
been
at
about
1.9
for
about
two
decades
and
so
we're
having
fewer
children
taking
better
care
of
ourselves
and
I
guess.
The
third
piece
of
it
thats
related
to
having
fewer
children,
is
the
growing
role
of
women
in
the
workforce
and.
B
Career
trajectories
leadership,
roles
in
business
and
the
life
as
more
and
more
women,
a
career
oriented,
they
defer
marriage
and
they
defer
childbearing
and
the
longer
you
defer
mayor's
in
the
Fertile
bury
the
fewer
years
you
have
to
reproduce,
and
so
there's
a
shrinking
of
the
reproductive
years
because
of
growing
presence
of
women
and
in
the
workforce
and
in
occupations
and
careers
and
the
like.
So
all
of
that
together
has
had
an
adverse
impact
on
I've,
reduced
fertility
rates
and
increased.
The
aging
of
our
population
explain.
B
Well,
if
the
life
expectancy
at
Birth
today
is
about
seventy
eight
point,
three
years
and
so
you're.
If,
if
you
look
at
the
productive
years,
the
assumed
projective
productive
years
of
a
person
that's
going
to
live
to
sixty
seventy
eight
point
three
years
at
a
minimum,
you
expect
them
to
work
to
age
65
and
be
contributing
to
the
economy
and
to
the
Social
Security
and
the
light.
B
You
almost
probably
in
most
of
the
you
are
dependent
on
the
system,
then
because
you
don't
you're
not
able
to
work
or
you're
not
able
to
work
full
time
or
you
stay
sick
so
often
that
it's
called
presenteeism
you
at
work,
but
you're,
not
working
at
full
capacity
or
it's
called
apps
t
ism.
You
are
frequently
not
at
work,
and
so
and
and
and
it's
mostly
related
to
lifestyle
factors-
you
know
some
of
us
not
taking
very
good
care
of
ourselves
or
obesity
and
diabetes.
B
Those
kinds
of
issues
I
think
we
have
some
serious
mental
health
challenges
in
our
community
today
that
prevent
people
from
working
full
time
in
my
life,
and
so
it's
a
it's
a
complex
array
of
forces
that
come
together
to
create
that
reduced
propensity
or
ability
to
work,
and
some
of
it
is
early
onset
of
death.
You
know
you
know
that
the
number
of
people
dying
in
their
twenties,
thirties
and
42,
some
of
it
is-
do
delete
the
violence.
B
A
B
When,
when
you're
not
reproducing,
but
when
you
don't,
when
you
do
not
have
above
replacement
level
fertility,
that
contributes
to
the
aging
process,
because
it
because
remember
that
the
65
plus
the
average
person
turned
65
today,
is
going
to
live
another
18
point
seven
years,
so
that
means
they've
already
paid
into
the
Social
Security
system
and
they're
getting
out
of
the
system.
But
where
does
the
money
come
from?
It
has
to
come
from
a
younger
population
because
it's
a
pay-as-you-go
system.
So
the
lower
your
fertility
rates
absent
immigration?
Is
you
can't
sustain
society?
B
You
can't
sustain
government
programs
and
alike,
because
you
don't
have
enough
working-age
people
that
work
every
day,
and
then
we
get
these
debilitating
diseases
and
early
onset
of
death
leading
to
truncate
of
productivity.
It's
a
real
challenge
for
us,
and
so
we
have
to
figure
out
how
to
I
think
we
have
to
be
immigrant
friendly,
because
you
got
an
important
new
talent,
new
labor,
that's
able
to
work
and
contribute
to
business
formation,
job
creation
and
and
work
every
day
and
pay
into
the
system
and
immigrants
are
have
high
rates
of
entrepreneurship
and
small
business
development.
B
So
those
all
value
add
for
us
in
a
society
where
our
native
population
is
aging
out.
So
that's
why
we
have
to
look
at
it
in
the
full
complex
of
the
two
colorful
processes.
We
talk
about
the
graying
of
America
on
one
hand
and
the
Browning
of
America
on
the
other.
We
want
to
nurture
and
protect
those
who
are
graying
and
we
want
to
grow
the
Browning
populations
so
that
we
can
sustain
the
systems,
the
social
safety
net
systems
that
we
all
need
as
we
age
in
life.
So.
B
Very
much
so
I
think
I,
don't
see
any
other
way
for
us
to
sustain
our
communities
in
our
population
without
having
a
young
importing
young
talent
and
in
creating
environments
and
investing
in
that
young
talent,
particularly
the
kids
of
immigrants.
You
want
them
I'd
much,
rather
them
to
be
well
educated,
with
a
skill
set
then
here
and
uneducated,
without
a
skill
set
so
for
most
enlightened
self-interest.
A
return
on
investment,
I,
think
of
investing
in
their
education
over
the
long
haul
is
far
greater
than
the
money
that
we're
actually
putting
in
to
educating
them.
B
You
know
some
people
would
say
that
you
know
the
impacts
on
the
environment
or
Lord.
There's
the
environmental
argument
that
you're
reducing
the
involved
with
the
adverse
effects
on
the
environment,
the
physical
environment,
natural
resources
and
things
of
that
nature,
the
carrying
capacity
that
we
have
a
finite
carrying
capacity
and
all
of
that,
but
I
think
that
if
you
don't
grow,
you
die
so
I
think
inherent.
We
need
to
grow
and
we
really
need
really
really
smart
people
to
help
us
grow
smartly.
A
B
B
Senior
playgrounds
will
replace
children's
playgrounds
in
the
future.
They
are
environments
that
enable
and
facilitate
aging
in
place.
It
is
these
are
entities
that
are
designed
to
reduce
the
propensity
of
seniors
falling
to
make
keep
them
active
to
work
on
their
balance.
That
dexterity
and
things
of
that
nature
that
reduce
your
propensity
to
fall
falling
is
about
a
19
billion
dollar-a-year
problem
today,
seniors
falling,
injuring
and
sometimes
leading
to
death.
B
Nineteen
billion
dollar
problem
projectors
grow
to
55
billion
by
2020,
so
the
more
active
you
are,
the
better
off
you
are
the
more
likely
you
are
to
have
to
maintain
your
balance
and
dexterity,
and
so
these
Fitness
parts
are
opportunities
to
age
in
place
and
be
active
in
the
built
environment
and
facilitating
the
aging
place.
What's.
B
First
and
foremost,
that
their
enormous
opportunities
in
the
aging
of
our
demographic,
popular
population,
enormous
opportunities
for
job
creation,
for
business
development,
for
community
development
and
for
reducing
caregiver,
stresses
and
strains
that
come
with
an
aging
population.
In
other
words,
as
opposed
to
looking
at
the
glasses
being
half
empty.
It
is
really
half
full
opportunity.