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From YouTube: 2020 Tax Evaluators Roundtable: 10/27/2020
Description
2020 Tax Evaluators Roundtable 10/27/2020
A
B
B
B
B
So
anyway,
okay-
and
I
also
want
to
go
ahead
and
introduce
a
couple
of
my
colleagues,
emily
mayer
and
laurel
steegler
from
ncsl
and
yeah
they're
waiting
there,
carl
boonder
allison,
wakefield,
shane,
benz
and
john
hammond
all
from
pew,
and
these
are
the
people
who
have
all
been
working
behind
the
scenes
to
bring
this
meeting
to
you
and
typically,
we
would
go
around
the
room
and
introduce
ourselves,
but
because
we
have
so
many
people
in
the
interest
of
time.
We
can't
really
do
that.
B
Is
you
hover
over
your
image
and
you
should
get
three
little
dots
and
then
that
will
allow
you
to
go
in
and
edit
your
name
and
then
the
other
thing
we're
going
to
ask
you
to
do
is
go
ahead
and
introduce
yourself
in
the
chat
and
we
will
be
using
the
chat
function
throughout
the
next
couple
of
days
to
share
information,
and
you
can
also
use
it
to
ask
any
questions
and
we
will
also
be
dropping
information
in
there.
I
think
emily
have
you
already
dropped
the
agenda
and
zoom
tips.
B
Oh
there's
allison
yep
I'll
be
dropping
them
momentarily.
Okay
and
then
I
just
have
a
few
other
housekeeping
items,
one.
We
are
recording
this
meeting,
so
you
will
have
access
to
everything
later
and
please
keep
yourself
muted.
If
you're,
not
speaking,
and
then
we
will
be
doing
meeting
evaluations
and
we'll
be
dropping
those
pretty
frequently
because
we
really
want
you
to
fill
those
out.
It
helps
us
improve
the
meetings
and
they're
especially
important.
Now,
as
we
navigate
all
these
various
virtual
meeting
options,
we
also
have
some
scheduled
breakouts
throughout
the
meeting.
B
But,
more
importantly,
you
want
to
recognize
the
work
that
they've
done
to
promote
tax
incentive
evaluations.
I
think
you
know
10
years
ago.
You
could
count
on
one
hand
the
number
of
states
that
routinely
conducted
evaluations
and
now
we're
looking
at
30
or
more-
and
I
know
kerr
is
going
to
update
us
on
that,
but
that's
largely
due
to
all
the
work
that
pew
has
done
in
this
field.
So
we
appreciate
all
of
their
efforts
here
and
so
with
that.
D
Okay,
hi
everybody,
I'm
kara
bunder
and
I'm
a
senior
associate
on
the
tax
incentives
team
for
the
pew
charitable
trust
state
fiscal
health
project.
While
we're
disappointed
that
we
couldn't
convene
in
person
this
year,
we're
really
happy
that
you
could
join
us
virtually
big.
Thank
you
to
our
friends
at
ncsl
for
again
hosting
this
year
and
helping
us
to
navigate
the
virtual
events
world.
One
benefit
of
this
virtual
event
is
that
we
didn't
need
to
limit
the
number
of
attendees
from
each
state,
so
this
is
our
biggest
crowd.
D
D
D
D
While
he's
failed
to
advance,
it
is
clear
that
states
are
increasingly
looking
towards
evaluations
to
help
inform
decisions
about
center
programs.
We'll
continue
to
monitor
developments
in
the
upcoming
2021
legislative
session
each
year.
It
is
impressive
to
see
the
amount
of
work
that
goes
into
the
volume
of
evaluations
released
this
year
is
no
different.
D
D
The
ncsl
evaluation
database
continues
to
expand,
while
many
of
you
are
already
aware
of
this
and
use
the
database
as
a
refresher.
Each
evaluation
in
the
database
is
tagged
to
show
the
type
of
programs
evaluated
to
capital
investment
zone
based,
in
addition
to
being
tagged
for
various
topics,
but
four
economic
modeling
opportunity
costs
foregone
revenue,
etc.
D
D
D
D
D
Another
benefit
to
a
virtual
event
is
that
we
were
able
to
invite
a
legislator
to
speak
about
how
their
state's
evaluation
process
led
the
policy
change
tomorrow
tomorrow,
you'll
hear
from
colorado
representative
benavidez,
who
chaired
the
state's
2019
tax
expenditure,
evaluation
interim
study
committee
and
learn
about
how
the
committee
went
about
reviewing
the
colorado
office
of
the
state
auditor's
evaluation
findings.
This
ultimately
led
to
multiple
policy
changes.
D
As
mentioned
during
last
year's
roundtable
in
summer,
2019
pew
established
the
evaluators
network
advisory
group.
Our
goal
was
to
energize
the
network
by
creating
more
regular
offerings
and
to
strengthen
member
engagement.
Thank
you
so
much
to
jim
landers,
anthony
zerko,
dana
lin,
ellen
miller
and
laurie
metcalf
for
serving
as
advisory
group
members.
D
The
advisory
group
has
been
critical
in
shaping
which
topics
to
focus
on,
including
for
this
event
and
assisting
in
the
development
of
resources,
and
we
are
grateful
for
your
time
and
energy
in
summer
2021,
three
existing
advisory
group
members
will
transition
off
the
advisory
group
and
we
will
have
three
new
members
cycle
on.
Please
look
out
for
updates
in
spring
and
summer
2021..
D
E
Ned
is
professor
of
economic
development
for
the
john
glenn
college
of
public
affairs
and
the
knowlton
college
of
architecture
at
the
ohio
state
university.
He
teaches
graduate
seminars
on
economic
development
policy
and
practice,
public
finance
and
economic
modeling
for
public
policy.
Research
he's
also
authored
or
co-authored
numerous
books,
book
chapters
and
journal
articles
relating
to
economic
development
policy
and
public
finance,
he's
a
frequent
speaker
on
economic
development,
workforce
issues
and
manufacturing
modernization
for
organizations
like
ncsl,
the
international
economic
development
council
and
other
organizations.
E
Ned
received
his
phd
in
urban
regional
planning
and
economics
from
mit,
and
he
was
recently
named
the
2020
national
academy
of
public
administration.
Fellow
I'm
glad
to
say
that
ned
is
a
colleague
of
mine
and
he's
actually
somebody
I
sort
of
look
up
to
as
a
as
a
researcher
and
an
academic
academic
in
the
area
of
economic
development
and
public
finance.
A
Well,
thank
you,
gm
and
I
thank
both
pew
and
ncsl
for
asking
me
to
to
present
and
talk
about
the
current
economic
conditions.
I'll
start
by
seeing
if
I
could
share
my
screen
appropriately,
there
we
go
oh
slide
show
there
we
go
and
let's
see,
if
I
can
get
rid
of
these
things,
they're
terrific,
I'm
not
an
economic
forecaster
right,
I
consume
forecasts,
and
I
also
for
this
particular
event.
You're
going
to
find
it's
going
to
be
a
little
different
way
of
presenting
any
of
of
the
discussion
about
the
current
economic
condition.
A
Sure,
let's
go
on
with
the
present.
Oh,
I
know
I
need
this
button
over
here.
There
we
go.
So
you
know,
one
of
the
one
of
the
new
economic
power
games
is
to
ask
what
what
letter
is
the
recovery
going
to
look
like
in
this
recession?
Look
like?
Is
it
going
to
be
a
v,
a
quick
decline,
the
quick
rebound,
a?
U
quick
decline
and
a
slower
rebound
a
w
looking
for
a
double
dip,
the
I
think
it's
the
national.
I
don't
I
forgot.
A
If
was
if
it's
nam
or
if
it
was
the
u.s
chamber
of
commerce,
has
suggested
it's
going
to
be
a
k-shaped
recovery
with
some
favorite
industries
doing
well
and
others
not
doing
well.
I
guess
the
lower
leg
of
the
k
is
heading
to
the
toilet
or
or
l
would
be
a
a
keynesian
liquidity
trap,
something
like
the
great
depression
and
right
now
my
money
is,
is
on
w.
A
I
think
that
the
best
thing
to
do
is
you
kind
of
look
at
at
the
structure
of
the
economy
in
in
your
state.
Look
at
how
it
relates
to
the
national
and
the
global
economy
and
and
do
do
you're
thinking
more
bottom-up
than
top-down
in
this
case.
What's
what's
what
where's
the
sources
of
uncertainty?
Well,
europe
is
right
in
the
middle
of
the
second
round
of
the
pandemic.
A
A
There
is
a
lot
of
conversation
taking
place
at
the
fda
and
cdc
about
the
possibility
of
interacting
covet
with
the
flu.
So
I
will
do
my
best
to
be
your
nanny
and
encourage
you
all
to
get
your
flu
shots.
I
had
mine
the
other
day
and
the
other
big
source
of
uncertainty
showed
up
in
the
stock
market.
I
think
it
was
yesterday
because
of
the
impact
of
the
election
of
mercury
and
uncertainty
over
macroeconomic
policy.
No
one
really
knows
whether
what
type
of
next
tranche
of
the
stimulus
will
exist.
A
A
The
real
estate
industry,
around
hotels,
shopping,
shopping,
centers
and
office
buildings
looming.
If
there
isn't,
if
the
recovery
doesn't
start
soon,
home
foreclosures
has
been
put
off
by
legislation
but
you're
already
beginning
to
see
in
different
states.
Some
filings
and
again
the
fed
has
done
a
great
job
on
liquidity,
but
if
there
is
a
increase
or
uptick
in
bankruptcies
and
foreclosures,
when
does
that
start
hitting
financial
instruments
the?
When
we
think
about
how
or
will
this
this
economy
recover?
I
actually
don't
want
it.
A
The
the
ultimate
source
of
uncertainty
is,
is
the
coven-19
virus
itself.
So,
what's
going
to
be
dr?
The
driver's
recovery,
like
my
first
response,
is
masks
sanitation
and
thanksgiving
dinner.
There's
an
article
I
think
in
today's
wall
street
journal
about
how
canada's
thanksgiving
turned
into
a
spreading
event.
You
hear
dr
fauci
talking
about
it
at
nih.
A
The
real
question
is
going
to
be:
when
is
one
is
the
the
best
way
to
figure
out
how
to
coexist
with
this
virus
until
vaccines
are
in
place,
are
broadly
accepted
and
that
that's
really
a
question
of
leadership?
It's
a
question
of
culture.
It's
a
question
of
a
sense
of
duty
as
a
nation,
but
I
have
been.
I
recently
completed
a
series
of
interviews
with
50
manufacturing
ceos.
A
So
these
are
social
and
sociological
and
political
impacts
that
are
going
to
have
much
larger
impacts
on
the
recovery
than
with
legislation,
but
we
still
have
to
look
and
pay
attention
to
the
chairman
of
the
feds
paul's
plea
to
congress
to
to
get
another
tranche
of
stimulus
out
there,
because
the
the
economy
is
approaching
stall,
speed
and
I'll
go
to
the
next
slide.
So,
let's
quick
quickly
go
through
the
vaccine,
horse,
race
and
and
one
to
find
the
pivot
point.
A
I
follow
their
utility
dive
quite
closely
with
my
work
in
in
electric
electricity,
electricity
generation
regulation
and
I
found
that
bio
pharma
drive
to
be
a
very
good
source
for
trying
to
figure
out
what's
going
on
with
vaccine
development.
This
is
a
a
update
of
of
the
major
vaccines
that
are
going
through
trials.
The
biopharma
dive
updated
it
on
october
23rd.
A
As
you
look
at
this
chart,
the
major
vaccines
are
listed
down
on
the
left-hand
side
of
the
table,
and
the
state
of
where
they
are
in
development
is.
Is
it
goes
across
the
across
the
rows?
The
dark
cross-hacked
area
is
when
they,
the
companies
are
saying
they
expect
to
have
their
first
available
supply,
but
there's
a
fl
a
major
fly
in
the
art
of
this.
A
If
you
go
down,
you'll
see
johnson
and
johnson
and
sanofi
glaxo,
with
projecting
very
large
amounts
of
vaccine
being
available
sometime
in
january,
realizing
that
johnson
and
johnson's
just
started
their
phase.
Three
trials
in
sanofi
glaxo
is
expecting
to
start
them
any
day
now.
So
that
makes
some
of
these
these
projections
as
to
when
and
how
much
vaccine
will
have
be
really
iffy.
So
oxford
astrazeneca
was
an
early
leader
in
this.
A
A
The
review
of
of
of
their
methods
was
favorable,
but
I
don't
know
if
they've
restarted
yet,
and
this
gives
us
examples
as
to
how
iffy
all
of
these
projections
are,
and
I
think
it
was
pfizer
that
said
that
they
will
not
make
a
statement
as
to
where
they
are
in
in
their
process
until
after
the
elections
are
over.
With
their
ceo,
I
think,
is
justly
afraid
of
politicizing
the
science
around
fda
approval
and
increasing
a
concern
about
the
quality
of
the
approval
process.
A
I
think
it
was
yeah
it's
on
the
24th,
and
these
this
is.
These
are
the
takeaways
that
came
by
biopharma
dives
reporters,
the
the
first,
the
major
statement
coming
out
by
the
these
reporters
and
other
news
sources
is
that
the
experts
that
were
on
the
panel
were
absolutely
delighted
and
happy
that
fda's
really
isn't
relaxing
their
standards
or
speeding
them
up.
But
their
take
is
that
that
that
the
fda
approval
standards
really
are
staying
pretty
much
in
place.
A
Vaccine
developers
that
were
seeking
early
approval
have
to
meet
the
same
efficacy
standards
as
if
they
would
meet
standard
approval.
It's
just
the
approvals
are
being
sped
up
as
as
are
the
the
trials
and
before
granting
early
approval,
the
fda
will
require
at
least
two
months
of
safety
follow-up
and
that
will
vary
according
to
the
type
of
vaccine.
A
Other
panel
members
and
people
that
attended
the
meeting,
they
were
a
little
skeptical.
They
questioned
the
clinical
trial
goals
that
the
companies
were
using
and
debated
whether
that
two-month
safety
requirement
for
emergency
clearance
is
sufficient,
so
that
is
still
still
an
issue.
The
third
issue
that
came
up
at
the
meeting
you
probably
be
seeing
in
the
news
yourself.
A
The
new
types
of
vaccines,
the
ones
that
moderna
and
others
are
putting
together,
are
based
on
rna
they're,
a
completely
new
manufacturing
process,
they're
quicker,
but
they
require
very,
very
cold,
deep
freeze,
transportation
and
shipment.
The
shipping
containers,
which
they
pack
the
vaccines
in
we're
supposed
to
keep
them
alive.
15
days
have
been
improved,
but
there
there
is
some
concern
about
that.
A
So
all
that
says
that
that
we
there
is
going
to
be
a
substantial
tale
to
this
and
research
that
pugh
did
harris
tufts
and
the
reagan
udall
foundation.
All
did
said
that
there
is
significant
skepticism
about
the
vaccines
and
that
is
going
to
take
to
deal
with
that.
Skepticism
is
going
to
require
transparency
and
leadership
and
those
are
all
affecting
the
economics.
A
So
pew
said
that
found
that
in
may
72
of
surveyed
americans
said
they
would
definitely
probably
get
get
a
vaccine.
In
their
september
poll,
it
dropped
to
51.
The
harris
paris
poll
on
october
said
58
percent
said
they
would
get
the
vaccine
as
soon
as
they
were
available.
So
that's
close
to
the
pews
51.
A
Here's
some
some
just
some
detail
and
a
little
simple
arithmetic
phase.
Three
data
is
not
really
available
at
this
point.
Three
of
the
vaccines
of
phase
three
trials
use
the
new
rna
technology,
which
means
they're,
gonna
need
two
doses
and
there
are
11
vaccines
that
are
in
phase
where
or
close
to
phase
three
globally
and
many
of
the
testing
that's
taking
place,
particularly
with
vaccines
coming
out
of
russia
and
china.
The
there's
not
a
lot
of
transparency
there
in
the
united
states.
A
It
was
said
that,
let's
see,
if
I
get
this
right,
that
the
early
releases
of
that
of
the
vaccine
will
be
enough
to
provide
10
to
15
million
doses.
Remember
that's
only
three
to
four
and
a
half
percent
of
the
population
and
cut
that
in
half.
If
you
need
two
shots,
the
cdc
estimated
that
they're
20
million
health
care
workers
up
to
80
million
essential
workers,
which
I
might
they're
unclear
in
the
press,
release
as
to
what
that
meant.
A
A
If
you
and
there's
some
likely
double
counting,
but
this
is
35
to
40
percent
of
the
population
and
there's
nowhere
near
enough
vaccine
that
10
to
15
million-
oh
I
that's
what
this
is.
The
10
to
15
million
people
included
the
the
two,
the
people
getting
two
shots
heard
immunities
placed
at
between
70,
870
and
80
coverage.
A
A
The
traditionally
manufactured
vaccines
by
johnson
and
johnson
and
novo
vax
are
going
to
be
required,
and
that's
where,
where
you'll
see
lots
of
vaccine
coming
in
when
I
started
following
and
just
kind
of
adding
up
the
months,
my
guess
is:
the
population
is
going
to
be
covered
optimistically.
Late
fall,
2021,
most
likely
early
spring
2022.
My
my
feeling
or
my
thinking.
It's
not
a
feeling.
It's
a
genuine
thought
is
that
economic
recovery
can
only
start
when
public
health
behaviors
are
widely
practiced.
A
The
recovery
can
start
earlier
if,
if
masking
social
distancing
hand
washing
becomes
dominant,
not
just
prevalent
otherwise
we're
looking
to
early
spring
2022,
in
which
case
there'll,
be
substantial,
damage
being
would
have
taken
place
in
the
labor
markets
and
specific
industries
outside
of
that,
I'm
a
happy
guy.
Here's
the
results
from
the
may
june
poll
the
tufts
university
put
out.
A
It's
called
the
there
was
their
equity
in
america
poll
and
and
what
they
found
is
that
distrust
about
the
exposure
and
incidents
varies
by
by
ethnicity
varies
by
household
income
varies
by
education.
If
you
look
at
by
race,
whites,
non-hispanic,
whites,
hispanics
and
others
are
58
to
60
percent.
This
was
made
june,
so
we
didn't
have
the
the
the
fall
drop
in
confidence
is
probably
coming
out
of
the
presidential
campaign.
58
to
60
said
that
they
they
would
would
take.
Take
the
vaccine
african-americans,
it's
it's
49.
A
All
this
says
that
the
economics
are
going
to
dictate
a
large
public
information
campaign
to
before
the
economy
itself
can
can
begin
to
accelerate.
So
that's
where
I
start.
I
start
with
the
fact
that
I
am
afraid
that
we
will
lose
next
summer
and
that
the
visitors
to
the
visitor
industry,
tourist
industries,
restaurants,
retail
travel,
if
they
are
they're
gonna,
be
vapor
locked
through
the
summer
and
probably
a
year
from
now.
We're
still
gonna
be
wrestling
with
this.
A
Is
that
it's
coming
out
of
a
huge
trough?
The
growth
rate
will
be
honestly
calculated
and
it's
going
to
be
greatly
mischaracterized.
So
don't
pay
attention
to
the
one-quarter
growth
rate
in
gdp,
examine
the
12-month
growth
rate
and
in
fact,
that
I
find
that
there's
lots
of
confusion
at
the
reported
growth
rates,
because,
when
they're
reported
quarter
to
quarter
on
an
annualized
basis,
no
one
outside
of
of
a
someone
who
lives
this
data
knows
what
it
means,
and
I
tend
to
do
most
of
my
calculations.
A
A
A
Fourth
quarter
of
2019
we're
growing
at
a
very
modest
2.3
percent
and
we're
kind
of
bumping
around
that
range
between
oh
two
and
a
half
to
two
to
two
and
a
half
percentage
growth
rates,
and
then
you'll
see
the
quarter
january
to
march,
where
the
growth
rate
dropped.
By
to
from
two
point,
we
lost
two
percent
growth
in
that
quarter.
However,
we
really
didn't
lose
that
quarter
january
february
were
fantastic
months,
that
entire
drop
that
you
see
that
drew
it
down
took
place
from
about
march
5th
to
the
end
of
march.
A
If
you
look
at
the
great
recession
that
you
see,
the
the
bottom
of
the
great
recession
was
the
april
june
quarter
of
2009,
where
the
growth
rate
was
almost
four
percentage
point
lower
than
it
was
in
the
previous
years,
and
it
took
14
quarters
to
get
back
to
the
pre-crash
levels
of
gdp.
That's
three
and
a
half
years.
A
A
The
the
question
that
that
is
still
outstanding
when
it
comes
to
the
covid19
depression
and
recession
is
how
much
broader
damage
is
going
to
take
place
and
how,
when
it
when,
when
or
if
it
will
attack
it,
affect
the
financial
system
and
I'll
talk
about
that
in
a
bit
in
this
slide.
What
I
did
was
I
took
the
final
data
from
second
quarter
and
looked
at
what
happened
to
gdp,
not
just
in
general,
but
by
specific
industries,
because
in
the
economic
development
business
we
don't
work
with
the
whole
economy.
A
77
of
the
loss
in
gdp
came
from
personal
consumption
expenditure.
It's
no
no
big,
surprise.
Personal
consumption
expenditure
is
normally
about
70
percent
of
the
economy,
but
what
was
just
quite
shocking
is,
if
you
go
down
to
the
fourth
row
in
the
table
on
the
right,
you'll
see
that
almost
all
that
came
out
of
consumer
services
over
on
the
left.
I
constructed
a
couple
industries.
A
Health
care,
surprisingly,
was
almost
a
quarter
of
the
loss,
and
then
you
saw
some
some
losses
in
in
not
coming
from
from
non-residential
fixed
investment.
So
what
what
I
did
in
this
table
is
I
I
take
a
look
at
the
change
in
gdp
over
a
year
and
then
I
think
then
I
figured
out
what
is
the
contribution
of
the
sector
towards
that
loss.
A
So
this
is
very
much
a
shock
that
is
coming
right
out
of
of
consumers,
and
it's
no
big
surprise
when,
when
you
look
at
at
where
unemployment
came
from,
I
mean
with
the
the
restaurant
industry
was
pretty
much
gutted
and
I'll
show
you
some
some
data,
that's
a
little
more
intuitive
in
a
second
who
it.
This
way
is
who
are
the
biggest
dollar
losers?
A
So
northeast
indiana's,
I
guess,
is
doing
all
right
and
you
also
saw
more
spending
taking
place
in
house
and
house
housing
utilities
and
grocery
stores
did
really
well
so
that
that
is
really
showing
you
where,
where
the
dollar's
values
came
from,
but
it's
still
just
there's
a
way
of
looking
at
the
vulnerability
of
these
sectors
to
say
what
fraction
of
their
of
gdp
did,
they
lose
would
buy
each
industry.
Hopefully
that's
my
next
one.
A
Yeah,
this
is
the
biggest
percentage
loss
in
terms
of
the
sector's
gdp
loss
from
from
quarter
to
quarter
recreational
services
lost
half
of
its
gdp
value.
Recreational
service
say
you
might
say
who?
Who
cares
about
that?
Well,
that's
destination
travel,
destination,
recreation,
colorado
may
care
about
this.
The
the
southeast
cares
about
it.
Gasoline
and
energy
was
down
by
45
percent
of
of
their
value
of
gdp,
transportation,
services
and
food
services
and
hotels.
A
Equipment
by
the
way
isn't
pure
covered
boeing
has
had
a
whoops
with
the
737
max
and
then
now
that
now
that
you've
had
the
halt
of
airplane
aircraft
travel
and
the
industry
uncertain
as
to
when
it's
going
to
come
back,
we
as
part
of
our
interviews
with
manufacturing
ceos.
We
talked
to
four
firms:
suppliers
in
the
airframe
industry
and
they're,
saying
our
finances
are
all
based
in
trying
to
hold
on
to
2025.
A
A
That's
recreational
stuff
to
play
in
your
backyards
and
rvs
grew
by
9.1
percent
doesn't
show
up
well
in
the
accounts
because
of
the
what
takes
place
in
in
residential
construction,
but
you're,
seeing
you're
seeing
lots
of
activity
in
residential
construction
as
upper
income,
families
are
investing
in
their
backyards
to
find
something
to
do
in
the
middle
of
the
summer.
Let's
hope
that
they
continue
doing
that
through
the
winter
to
get
ready
for
next
summer.
A
Finally,
oh
not
this
did
not
find
this
section.
I've
got
a
a
few
slides
on
employment,
but
before
I
launch
into
the
slides,
I
want
to
make
a
comment
based
on
the
book
that
hal
woman
and
three
or
three
others
of
us
did
on
regional
economic
shocks
and
regional
economic
resiliency.
We
published
in
2017.
A
when
we
looked
at
at
the
length
of
recessions.
We
found
that
recessions
were
getting
longer
over
time.
We
also
found
out
that
there
is
a
disconnect
between
the
speed
of
recovery
and
gdp
versus
the
speed
of
recovery
by
employment.
In
that
book,
which
we
had
had
to
do.
The
the
great
recession
is
as
a
separate
ex
analytical
exercise.
A
What
we
found
out
is
that
the
labor
markets
were
taking
about
a
year
to
year
and
a
half
longer
to
recover
than
gdp
in
the
great
recession.
The
difference
was
much
much
longer:
gdp
gdp
recovered
quicker.
I
mean
the
great
recession,
it
took
employment.
Let's
see
what
I'm
doing
hit
this
right,
yeah
it
we
took.
Employment
took
three
and
a
half
years
to
recover
for
to
get
back
to
their
their.
No
that's
my
gdp
number
in
here
all
right.
A
That's
what
you
get
when
you're
working
on
these
things
early
in
the
morning,
yeah
the
the
great
recession.
Gdp
was
three
and
a
half
years,
and
obviously
I
didn't
calculate
the
one
unemployment.
I
think
I
got
it
later.
I
think
that's
six
years,
so
yes,
so
it
took
so
it
took
gdp
for
the
great
recession
three
and
a
half
years
to
recover
and
it
took
employment,
six
and
a
half
years
to
get
back
to
it
to
its
pre
pre-crashed
levels.
A
So
if
we
look
at
the
percent
change
of
employment,
this
is
on
slide
13..
What
you'll
see
is
just
that
huge
drop
of
employment
that
took
place
from
april
to
june.
My
comment
here
and
I
see
that
tim
bartick's
listing
in
and
I
think
people
at
uptown
have
done
some
work
on.
This
is
what
would
these
numbers
look
like
without
the
ppp
loans?
A
A
There
are
138.3
million
people
employed.
The
bottom
of
of
the
great
recession
in
terms
of
employment
actually
took
place
after
mb
it
in
first
quarter
of
2010,
which
was
two
quarters
after
nbr
declared
the
recession
being
over.
It
was
over,
except
for
employment,
and
the
job
loss
was
substantial.
So
and
if
we
look
at
what
happened
in
2020,
we
had
about
152
million
people
employed
during
the
first
quarter
of
2020,
and
then
we
dripped
and
we
dropped
with
the
shock
april
to
june
to
134
million.
A
A
Here
is
unemployment
and
I
don't
know
how
to
interpret
the
data
because
of
the
hidden
unemployments
there
I
want
to
spend
some
time
on
this
last
slide
is:
is
it
a
a
k-shaped
recovery?
Fine,
which
means
you've,
got
some
industries
doing
well
and
others.
Not.
I
don't
think
it's
fine.
I
think.
When
it
comes
to
economic
development,
we
should
realize
that
we
now
have
a
bifurcated
economy.
Look
at
e-commerce
versus
retail
and
the
development
challenges
there.
A
I
mean
we
we're
seeing
investment
in
building
and
warehousing
and
building
out
delivery
networks
at
the
same
time
that
we're
seeing
department
stores
going
into
bankruptcy
and
really
real
serious
challenges
about
what
happens
to
street
level
retail
neighborhood
retail.
There
is
a
lot
of.
There
is
some
optimism
about
on
showing-
and
I
say
the
dream
continues.
We
we've.
We
saw
some
of
onshowing
during
our
interviews,
some
on
ppp,
a
lot
when
it
comes
to
defense
supply
chain
or
but
what
we've
got
is
some.
A
There
are
some
strategic
products:
pharmaceuticals,
integrated
circuits,
arizona,
just
got
a
got:
a
huge
investment
for
a
chip
plant
defense
and
supply
chain.
But
the
question
is:
do
they
get
a
strategic
price?
Will
the
markets
be
willing
to
pay
a
price,
that's
greater
than
the
global
price?
For
some
of
some
of
these
components?
A
A
A
A
Troubled,
visitor
travel
industry
and
supply
chain,
they're
going
to
have
a
bad
summer
in
2021.
retailers
that
cater
to
the
middle
of
the
income
distribution,
lower,
lower
middle
income,
the
income
distribution,
their
customers,
don't
have
money,
the
whole
community
development
issue
about
main
street
retail
and
third
spaces.
A
Until
we
get
proper
mass
discipline,
it's
gonna
be
tough
and
if
you're
anywhere
north
of
south
florida,
how
are
you
gonna
survive?
The
winter
major
restructuring
is
taking
place
in
the
office
market.
How
much
is
going
to
come
back
and
and
will
the
densities
of
office
users
be
able
to
pay
back
the
mortgages
and
loans
and
the
investment
in
big
big
office
spaces?
That's
an
open
question
and
those
communities,
particularly
central
cities
that
depend
on
wage
taxes
or
other
taxes
paid
by
commuters
as
they
if
they
stay
out
where
they
live.
A
You're,
going
to
see
a
wave
of
financial
crisis
in
in
major
cities
beginning
next
year,
there's
real
confusion
in
the
labor
market,
we're
hearing
questions
of
skill
shortage,
even
though
there's
a
there
there's
there's
clearly
a
recession
going
on.
Is
this
because
the
employers
aren't
feel
that
they've
got
cross-discipline
issues
with
with
the
resurgent
asia?
Or
is
there
really
a
true
skill
shortage?
We
don't
know
the
answer
to
that
and
for
all
of
us.
A
A
I'm
allowed
to
use
use
their
name,
but
I
want
to
make
certain
they're
comfortable
with
it
before
I
do
that,
and
they
serve
the
buy
america
market,
which
is
a
market
that
pays
more
than
the
international
market
for
its
goods.
New
jersey,
whoops,
I
told
you
where
it
is-
is
increasing
its
its
minimum
wage
to
a
living
wage
and
they're,
looking
at
a
huge
cost
differential
with
their
competitors
in
georgia,
and
they
automation
is
the
only
way
they're
gonna
make
it.
These
are
scary
times.
A
So,
in
the
end,
I
offer
you
words
on
the
left-hand
side
that
will
get
you
through
the
pandemic
and
will
get
us
to
an
economic
recovery.
Treat
your
mask
like
it
like
underwear,
do
not
touch
or
ingest
it,
especially
in
public.
Do
not
borrow
or
lend
two
people
can't
use
the
same
pair
of
underwear
make
sure
if
the
fit
is
tight,
but
yet
comfortable
make
sure
it's
clean,
wear
it
right
side
out
and
if
it's
damp
change
it
and
don't
go
commando.
E
A
Time
period
as
the
restaurant
industry,
because
there
still
is
a
fear
of
people
going
into
health
care
facilities,
even
though
I
think
right
now,
they're,
probably
the
safest
places
to
be
because
that
their
their
their
discipline
is
is
improved.
So
so
I
so
let
me
put
this
away,
I
think
there's
going
to
be
recovery
in
their
revenues,
but
it's
not
going
to
be
robust.
A
B
A
B
B
Okay,
I
think
she
dropped
the
questions
in
the
chat,
but
just
I'll
just
read
them
question
so
question
one:
where
have
you
started
to
see
recovery
in
your
state?
Two?
Are
fiscal
projections
better
worse
than
initially
expected
in
your
state,
three,
which
industry
sectors
in
your
state
have
been
hardest
hit,
which
are
in
recovery
which
are
not?
And
lastly,
if
you
had
a
crystal
ball,
when
would
you
anticipate
full
recovery
in
your
state?
B
And
again,
these
are
just
guidelines
so
laurel
in
a
minute
here
is
going
to
send
you
an
invitation
to
join
a
breakout
group
and
then
after
10
minutes,
you'll
get
another
one
again,
the
presenters
for
the
next
session
and
I've
already
I've
already
messaged
you
privately
mark
allison
and
john
decline.
The
second
breakout
and
then
you'll,
come
back
in
the
main
room
to
prepare
for
your
next
session.
B
G
C
C
H
C
H
C
H
C
G
G
G
H
H
H
First
john
will
share
some
of
our
ongoing
research
on
state
incentive
actions
in
response
to
the
great
recession
and
lessons
learned
from
those
experiences
then
mark
will
discuss
kovit's
impact
on
businesses.
How
state
economic
development
organizations
are
responding
and
implications
for
evaluators.
H
Our
hope
is
that
the
session
will
give
you
a
flavor
of
the
types
of
things
you
may
see
down
the
road.
When
you
do
your
evaluations,
actions
you
may
need
to
take
now
to
prepare
for
those
evaluations
and
how
analyzing
incentives
from
this
period
may
differ
from
other
times
before
I
let
john
take
the
mic.
I'd
like
to
pose
a
question
to
you.
G
Hello,
can
you
guys
hear
me
all
right
so
hello
and
welcome,
as
allison
said
yeah,
I'm
really
also
bummed,
that
we
couldn't
be
there
in
person,
but
it's
really
great
to
get
to
see
everyone
here.
Normally,
I
would
say
my
name
is
john
hammond
and
I'm
a
researcher
here
at
view
now
I'll
say
I
was
a
researcher
there
at
pew
and
to
continue
the
bad
news
train.
G
On
top
of
that
policy
makers
face
pressure
to
preserve
or
even
create
jobs,
and
for
that
tax
incentives
was
a
natural
choice
for
a
few
reasons,
first
they're
familiar,
which
makes
them
quick
to
implement
they're,
conspicuous,
which
you
know,
means
that
policymakers
can
take
credit
for
them
publicly
and
best
of
all
they're,
not
often
on
state's
budgets.
So
they
don't
have
the
budget
for
them,
and
some
of
our
past
research
indicates
that
these
programs
coming
out
of
the
great
recession,
didn't
always
go
as
planned
and,
in
fact,
were
often
a
cause
for
controversy.
G
So
for
the
next
slide,
there
are
a
few
questions
in
of
the
new
line
of
research
that
we're
thinking
about.
We,
we
really
want
to
know
what
went
wrong
and
there
are
a
lot
of
these
stories,
as
you
can
imagine,
they're
easy
to
find
because
people
love
talking
about
them,
but
we're
also
really
curious
in
finding
out
what
went
well
and
they're
a
lot
more
difficult
to
find
and
allison
mentioned
this
earlier.
G
And,
importantly,
for
us,
this
just
isn't
a
history
lesson.
We
want
this
research
for
to
be,
for
you
guys
to
draw
out
actionable
practices
for
policymakers
today,
as
they're
thinking
about
crafting
programs
to
dig
out
of
the
current
recession
and
to
get
this
information.
The
research
that
we're
doing
is
primarily
relying
on
the
work
that
you
guys
have
done.
G
My
presentation
focuses
mainly
on
the
first
question
that
I
post:
what
are
the
stories
where
something
went
wrong
because
they're,
like
I
said,
easy
to
find,
but
which
programs
blew
up
last
time?
What
were
the
pinch
points
and
where
were
policymakers
upset
and
what
became
these
programs
that
were
hastily
thrown
together
during
and
in
the
immediate
aftermath
of
the
great
recession?
G
The
during
the
great
recession,
many
states
significantly
expanded
the
use
of
existing
programs,
so
some
did
so
to
cover
a
wider
geographic
area
for
say
for
potential
beneficiaries
or
some
included
businesses
that
normally
wouldn't
have
received
business
benefits
under
the
existing
programs
structure
and
others
just
simply
increase
the
amount
of
incentives
that
were
awarded.
So
looking
at
colorado.
G
Long
before
the
great
recession
lawmakers
there
created
the
state's
enterprise
zone
program
to
incentivize
job
creation,
expand
existing
businesses
and
to
attract
new
businesses
in
several
regions
of
the
state
and
since
its
creation
in
1986,
the
zones
zones
under
the
act
had
grown
from
covering
only
30
percent
of
the
state
to
around
70
in
2011
and
media
reports
indicated
that
companies
frequently
claimed
benefits,
despite
also
cutting
jobs
and
the
jobs
that
were
attributable
to
the
program
were
costly.
So
those
created
in
2010
were
estimated
to
have
cost
around
133
000
per
job.
G
Also
long
before
the
great
recession,
policymakers
in
illinois
created
the
encouraging
development
for
a
growing
economy
or
edge
credit
to
attract
new
businesses,
but
also
expand
existing
businesses
in
the
state.
Since
it
was
created
in
1999,
the
city
has
awarded
approximately
1.5
billion
dollars
for
these
discretionary
credits.
G
The
state
really
ramped
up
awards
in
the
aftermath
of
the
great
recession,
especially
opening
up
projects
to
simply
retain
jobs
instead
of
creating
new
ones
between
2009
and
2013.
For
example,
the
governor
announced
the
program
had
retained
43
000
jobs,
but
it
only
created
17,
000
jobs
and,
as
a
recent
report
from
the
state
auditor
points
out,
this
practice
seems
to
have
gone
beyond
what
policymakers
initially
intended.
G
Moving
on
to
maine,
the
pine
tree
development
zone
was
established
in
2003
with
the
purpose
of
encouraging
development
in
economically
distressed
communities
by
incentivizing
job
creation
in
certain
industries.
So
initially
the
local
governments
were
required
to
apply
to
the
state
to
be
designated
with
the
economic
development
office.
Reviewing
applications
based
on
select
criteria
like
the
severity
of
economic
distress
in
the
region.
G
This
program
was
modified
in
2009
and
2010.
These
changes
to
the
programs
eliminated
the
application
process
and
every
area
in
the
state
actually
became
eligible
and
all
but
two
counties
were
rolled
into
the
more
generous
tier
of
benefits
and
as
maine's
office
of
program,
evaluation
and
government
accountability
noted
this
has
had
the
effect
of
de-emphasizing.
G
So
moving
on
states
have
also
tried
to
hit
the
pause
button
on
incentives
in
order
to
temporarily
reclaim
revenue
to
help
meet
mounting
budget
caps,
for
instance
in
california,
in
late
2008.
The
legislature
enacted
a
measure
that
suspended
the
state's
net
operating
loss,
deduction
and
temporarily
limited
the
use
of
several
business
tax
credits,
so
the
credits
could
only
make
up
50
of
a
business's
tax
liability
at
the
time.
An
assembly
floor
analysis
estimated
that
these
limits
would
have
stayed
the
state
900
million
dollars
in
fiscal
2009
and
over
400
million
in
fiscal
2010..
G
G
Moving
on
many
states
also
implemented
entirely
new
incentive
programs
aimed
at
reviving
their
economies,
but
their
costs
wouldn't
be
truly
understood
until
years
after
the
programs
were
implemented
when
businesses
started
to
use
them.
So
in
kentucky
in
2009
lawmakers
faced
a
one
billion
dollar
budget
shortfall
that
had
already
led
policymakers
to
brace
for
state
agency
cuts.
G
The
governor
signed
the
measures,
but
not
before
noting
that
these
incentive
modifications
would
quote
seriously
and
significantly
increase
those
cuts.
In
fact,
kentucky's
finances
were
in
such
dire
straits
that
in
2012
a
reporter
for
state
line
by
the
name
of
josh
goodman
wrote.
Most
of
the
focus
in
kentucky
for
the
last
decade
has
been
on
one
major
pro
problem.
The
state's
tax
revenue
hasn't
been
keeping
up
with
the
growth
in
the
economy.
G
G
These
programs
were
intended
to
help
businesses
create
and
retain
jobs
and
support
commercial
residential
development
in
distressed
areas
between
2013
and
2017.
The
state
authorized
five
over
five
billion
dollars
in
incentives
that
could
impact
the
state's
revenue
for
up
to
20
years
and
as
identified
by
a
2017
new
jersey
policy
perspectives.
Brief.
G
G
So,
as
we
continue
our
research,
we
expect
to
find
more
examples
of
how
states
have
used
fiscal
protections
like
caps,
sunsets,
sunrise
analysis
and
even
performance-based
agreements.
We
also
expect
to
find
evaluations
to
be
a
valuable
tool
to
highlight
these
important
policy
options
to
lawmakers.
I
trust
most
of
you
have
found
your
evaluations.
Can
help
widen
a
policymaker's
perspective
to
make
those
fiscal
risks
more
evident.
G
So
we
hope
this
research
will
further
demonstrate
the
value
of
your
work
and
how
important
it
is,
during
periods
of
economic
uncertainty
to
making
thoughtful
decisions
about
tax
incentives.
So
thanks
very
much.
That's
it
for
me,
and
I
just
want
to
give
a
special
thanks
to
my
colleague,
shane
bence
who's
done
a
lot
of
the
research
on
this
and
help
me
put
the
presentation
together
so
back
to
you.
Allison.
H
Thanks
so
much
john
laura,
I
see
your
question
and
I'm
going
to
continue
well
actually,
john,
let's,
let's
take
laura's
question
here
and
I'd
also,
you
know,
encourage
us
to
turn
it
over
to
evaluators
too
to
see
if
anyone
has
thoughts
on
this.
When
evaluating
the
great
recession
programs
mentioned
in
your
slides
john,
do
these
evaluations
include
the
effects
of
the
substantial
federal
investment
incentives
that
were
adopted
by
many
states,
for
instance,
the
bonus
depreciation
provisions
or
the
expanded
section,
179
depreciation
provisions?
G
G
I
wish
I
had
a
better
answer
other
than
it's
something
that
we're
really
interested
in,
especially
because
there's
a
like,
as
you
know,
laura
there's
a
ton
of
programs
that
are
tied
to
federal
incentives.
So
any
modifications
there
can
have
you
know
very
significant
consequences
down
the
line.
As
you
know,
georgia
saw
in
2008
right
or
2018.
G
it's
something
that
we
would
like
to
know
a
lot
more
of
I
haven't
seen
any
specific
analysis
trying
to
like
separate
those
two
necessarily
yet
I'm
gonna
look
harder,
but
what
I
have
seen
are
states
trying
to
tease
out
the
kind
of
budget
like
trying
to
figure
out
how
to
budget
while
dealing
with
federal
assistance.
That's
more
general,
and
I
think
that
that
can
be
really
tricky
too,
because
they
don't.
You
know
they
don't
have
a
real,
solid,
top-line
figure.
F
All
right
take
it
away
great
thanks
and
thanks
to
pew
and
ncsl
for
organizing
the
session
today
and
tomorrow,
really
a
great
agenda.
If
you
go
to
the
next
slide.
What
I'd
like
to
talk
about
with
you
this
afternoon
is
give
some
background
on
the
seed
network.
The
network,
the
state
economic
development
executives
network
and
the
roles
that
state
economic
development
offices
are
are
playing
in
the
response
to
the
pandemic.
F
Talk
a
little
bit
about
the
impact
that
kovid
is
having
on
businesses,
based
in
part
on
what
we're
hearing
from
the
state
executives
in
their
experiences,
as
well
as
some
data
from
census
and
other
agencies
that
I
wanted
to
share
with
you
and
then,
most
importantly,
perhaps
talking
about
how
economic
development
organizations
are
adapting
incentive
programs
and
the
implications
of
what
they're
doing
with
incentive
programs.
At
this
point.
F
For
those
of
you
who
are
responsible
for
taking
a
look
at
that
for
setting
policy
or
for
evaluating
whether
those
policy
changes
are
in
fact,
effective,
and
I
wanted
to
leave
you
with
a
couple
of
some
resources
that
we
found
to
be
useful
in
part
on
some
references
to
research.
That
has
been
done
this
summer
with
support
of
pew
and
others
by
ellen
harpel,
at
smart
incentives
and
ken
poole,
my
colleague
at
crec
that
formed
the
basis
for
a
good
part
of
this
presentation.
F
So
on
the
next
slide,
I
guess
I'll.
Just
start
off.
The
seed
network
was
started
informally
about
four
years
ago
by
some
state
economic
development
leaders
who
just
wanted
a
place
where
they
could
talk
to
one
another
without
any
press
without
any
staff,
just
peer
to
peer
exchange,
information
learn
from
one
another
and
really
advance
the
efforts
that
they
that
they
are
involved
in.
F
And
what
we
learned
in
that
process
is
that
states
essentially
were
playing
and
are
playing
the
same
kind
of
roles
that
we
see
them
play
during
normal
times.
You
know:
state
economic
development
organizations
are
pretty
well
positioned
to
figure
out
where
the
resources
and
the
assets
are
and
to
figure
out
how
to
leverage
them
to
to
help.
You
know
help
address
challenges
that
they're
hearing
about
from,
in
particular
from
the
business
community
and
others.
F
They
provided
a
lot
of
guidance
and
coordination
for
those
resources
and
they
served
as
a
convener
and
a
matchmaker,
and
then
before
the
cares
act,
funding
came
out.
We
found
that
they
in
some
states
chose
to
provide
funding
to
help
mitigate
the
effects
in
the
short
term
and
then
once
the
cares
act,
funding
came
out.
F
Next
slide,
please.
This
is
where
I
wanted
to
talk
to
you
about
the
my
slides
just
disappeared,
the
impact
of
the
research.
That's
been
done
on
the
covid
impact
on
businesses,
and
I
don't
know
how
many
of
you
are
familiar
with
the
census
bureau
and
that
work
that
they've
done
with
their
small
business
pulse
surveys,
but
it's
one
of
the
best
resources
out
there.
You
know
census
collaborated
with
five
other
federal
agencies
to
collect
this
information
weekly.
F
They
surveyed
businesses
from
april
through
the
end
of
june,
and
then
again
they
started
up
in
august
through
the
middle
of
october,
and
this
data
is
released
weekly.
It
covers
information
on
a
whole
range
of
very
relevant
questions
for
folks
like
who
are
on
this
call,
and
you
can
sort
it
by
industry
sector
by
state
and
by
msa.
F
So
if
you
want
to
get
a
better
sense
of
what's
happening
to
businesses
in
your
state,
it's
really
an
incredibly
valuable
resource
and
on
the
next
few
slides,
I
just
wanted
to
share
a
few
snippets
of
information
from
that
to
give
you
a
sense
of
what's
there.
So
if
you
go
to
the
next
slide,
we'll
we'll
look
at
some
national
information
national
averages
that
were
collected
so,
for
instance,
overall,
how
has
your
business
been
affected
by
the
virus?
F
Sorry,
it's
a
little
bit
of
an
eye
chart
but
that'll
encourage
you
to
go
to
the
original
source
there,
but
but
on
this
chart,
you'll
see
that
about
three
quarters
of
all
small
businesses
anticipate
a
moderate
or
large
negative
effect
resulting
from
the
pandemic.
So
if
you're
in
the
business
of
incentives
and
you're
trying
to
think
about
targets
for
small
businesses,
this
tells
you
that
it
pretty
much
is
affecting
you
know.
F
Virtually
three
out
of
four
small
businesses
are
going
to
have
some
impacts
and
that
may
affect
their
ability
to
meet
commitments
that
they've
made
and
other
implications
like
that.
The
next
slide
talks
about
changes
in
employees.
You
know:
did
your
business
have
a
change
in
the
number
of
paid
employees,
while
70
to
80
percent
over
this
period
of
the
small
businesses
nationwide
did
not
report
a
change
in
the
number
of
employees.
F
On
the
next
slide,
it
talks
about
delays
and
difficulties
that
companies
have
experienced
you
know,
did
your
company
experience
any
of
the
following
difficulties?
These
are
all
related
to
production,
delays
or
issues
with
foreign
or
domestic
suppliers,
and
the
response
was
that
about
65
percent
of
small
businesses
nationwide
reported
that
they
did
not
experience
any
challenges
of
this
nature.
However,
just
under
30
percent
reported
problems
with
supplier
delays
domestically
and
another
50
percent
reported
various
other
delays
in
production,
shipping
and
or
issues
with
suppliers.
F
So
again,
this
is
going
to
critically
impact
the
ability
of
these
companies
to
meet
commitments
that
they
have
made,
especially
under
existing
incentive
agreements.
So
it's
something
for
you
to
to
really
understand
how
much
of
that
is
happening
in
your
state
and
to
deal
with
it
accordingly
and
with
some
some
understanding
of
that
impact,
and
then
in
the
last
data
piece
I
wanted
to
share
with
you.
This
is
a
question
that
looked
just
at
manufacturing.
This
is
nakes
code
31
and
it's
nationwide
averages
here.
F
Well,
we
heard
ned
talking
about
how
all
the
uncertainty
that
is
out
there
in
the
economy
virtually
everywhere.
You
turn,
there
are
more
questions
than
there
are
answers
and
in
this
kind
of
a
fast-changing
economic
landscape,
that
really
complicates
the
job
of
the
policy
makers,
the
incentives
program,
staff
and
the
evaluators
to
try
to
figure
out.
Where
do
you
go
from
here?
It
was
refreshing
to
see
the
work
that
john
presented.
F
It's
always
nice
to
actually
take
a
look
backwards
and
see
what
happened
before
and
and
what
we
learned
from
from
that
you
know.
Typically,
incentive
programs
are
targeting
traded
sectors
because
that's
where
you're
going
to
get
the
biggest
return
on
investment
in
terms
of
job
creation
in
terms
of
wealth
creation.
But
what
we're
hearing
a
lot
is
that
the
priorities
are
shifting,
at
least
in
the
near
term,
and
there's
a
changing
definition
of
success.
F
We're
sure
that
policymakers
are
getting
an
earful
about
the
need
for
survival
in
the
near
term
about
retaining
jobs
on
main
street.
You
know
those
main
street
businesses
that
that
everybody
knows
and
that
have
been
the
anchors
of
an
economy,
downtown
economy,
especially
in
small
and
mid-sized
communities
across
the
country.
So
those
need
to
be
taken
into
account.
There
may
be
changes
in
the
short
term
that
you
want
to
reflect
in
your
thinking
about
incentives,
but
we
know
this
is
also
going
to
be
temporary.
F
You
know
businesses
need
to
understand
that
public
sector
agencies
are
going
to
be
under
tremendous
pressure
with
budgets
in
the
year
or
years
ahead
because
of
the
hit
that
covet
has
has
placed
on
budgets,
and
so
they
have
to
be
more
realistic
about
what
incentives
can
be
offered
to
them
or
how
those
might
need
to
be
modified
and,
at
the
same
time,
incentive
program.
Managers
need
to
be
realistic
about
what
the
businesses
are
going
through.
F
We
changes
in
regarding
changes
in
the
priorities
and
the
policies
and
the
processes,
and-
and
so
you
know
just
some
important
questions
that
states
are
asking
around
existing
agreements.
You
know
what
adjustments
are
happening
regarding
the
timing
and
the
performance
and
the
penalties
that
are
that
are
being
that
are
being
considered.
You
know
when
and
how
do
you
want
to
use
the
incentive
agreement?
Adjustments?
F
There's
other
needs
besides
financing
out
there?
Maybe
the
needs
for
technical
assistance
subsidies
to
help
companies
open
safely
or
more
information
guidance
about
where
to
find
ppe
and
related
supplies.
Maybe
companies
need
help
in
identifying
new
customers
or
or
maybe
to
the
pandemic
business
model?
F
So
this
context,
you're,
looking
at
adjustments
to
agreements
to
programs
and
operations,
the
demand
for
increased
accountability
is
probably
going
to
be
as
great
as
ever
in
this
environment
and
you've
got
more
complicated
project,
reporting
and
program
evaluation
procedures
that
are
changing.
We
wanted
to
leave
you
with
a
few
considerations
in
three
areas
around
the
outcomes
around
the
processes
that
have
been
put
in
place
and
around
reporting.
F
So
first
around
the
outcomes
you
know
have
the
program
goals
changed:
are
they
expecting
different
outcomes
and
are
those
goals
specific
enough
to
be
measurable?
And
if
so,
what
metrics
would
you
suggest
to
measure
those
outcomes
and
whether
they're
being
achieved
and
what
data
do
you
need
and
how
you
collect
that
data
to
assess
whether
those
outcomes
are
being
impacted
in
the
process
arena?
You
know
what
authorities
were
used
for.
The
incentive
changes
that
were
made
were
established
procedures
that
followed
to
make
the
program
changes
or
for
amending
the
agreements.
F
What
changes
were
made
in
in
several
different
areas:
around
eligibility,
application
procedures,
review
processes,
outreach
activities,
partnership
arrangements,
reporting
forms,
there's
a
whole
bunch
of
moving
parts
in
there
that
are
important
to
think
about
as
part
of
the
overall
process
and
how
those
changes
impact
your
evaluation,
and
then
it
was
mentioned
earlier
around
safeguards.
I
think
john
mentioned
it.
You
know
what
safeguards
have
been
put
in
place,
spending
caps
or
paper
for
pay
for
performance.
F
How
will
those
impact
your
evaluation,
thinking
and
then
last
of
all
reporting?
You
know
who,
on
the
staff
will
collect
and
analyze
the
activity
and
the
performance
data?
What
arrangements
do
you
have
for
getting
access
to
that
information
and
will
they
be
willing
to
share
it
with
evaluators
and
how
and
then
you
know
what
plans
do
you
as
evaluators
have
for
sharing
the
results
of
your
work?
F
F
These
are
three
papers,
links
to
three
papers
that
ellen
harpel
and
ken
poole
have
helped
to
pull
together
this
summer
and
really
some
good
thinking
and
lots
of
state
examples
in
each
of
these
papers
that
can
help
in
each
of
these
areas
and
then,
last
but
not
least,
the
links
to
several
pages
that
have
documented
states
activities
that
states
have
put
in
place
to
help
them
deal
with
incentives,
issues
and
the
response
to
the
covid
virus.
More
broadly.
F
The
first
website
is
the
part
of
the
seed
network
website
that
deals
specifically
with
the
covert
response
and
then
numerous
other
national
organizations
that
we've
partnered
with
nga
pew.
Obviously,
ncsl
cdfa
really
have
good
information
up
there
about
what
other
state
examples
can
can
can
help
us
to
learn
about
what
we
might
need
to
do
going
forward.
So
that's
what
I've
got
back
to
you,
allison.
H
All
right,
thank
you
so
much
mark
we've.
We've
got
a
question
from
kirk
fulford
in
alabama
and
he
asks
could
one
of
the
adjustments
be
to
require
incentive
usage
to
begin
by
the
x
year
in
order
to
have
a
better
idea
of
when
they
will
impact
revenues?
And
then
he
goes
on
to
say
what
he
means
by.
That
is
what
the
growing
use
of
selling
or
carrying
forward
exemptions,
making
it
virtually
impossible
to
determine
when
the
fiscal,
the
fiscal
cost
will
show
up.
G
Only
because
I
don't
know
the
answer
and
I
would
like
to
find
out
some
more
creative
ideas
for
it,
the
the
only
so
I
think
maybe
he
was
thinking
about
the
grow.
New
jersey
example,
where
I
said
it's
like
the
carry
forward
could
be
20
or
I
guess
the
hawaii
and
the
california.
Examples
like
to
carry
forward
could
be
10
years
from
now
and
how,
if
you're
in
the
business
of
estimating
revenue,
how
on
earth,
do
you
account
for
that?
G
And
how
do
you
corrupt
the
budget
when
you
have
such
a
long
window
for
when
this
could
come
due?
And
I
think,
but
one
of
the
simple
ways
would
just
be
you
know
if
you
can
convince
policymakers,
like
shortening
the
window
of
redemptions,
will
give
you
a
little
bit
more
certainty
so,
like
you
at
least,
can
kind
of
build
a
rolling
cut
off.
You
know
they
haven't
used
it
by
this
amount
of
time.
G
So
shortening
the
window,
I
think,
is
a
is
a
good
option,
but
I'm,
I
think
it's
worth
kind
of
thinking
a
little
bit
more
creatively
like.
Maybe
there
are
some
solutions
that
you
know
at
least
that
I
personally
haven't
heard
of
I'm
I'm
open
to
some
options.
If
anyone
else
has
thoughts,
maybe
you
do
mark.
H
I
don't
know
if
we
could
unmute
tim
bartik
really
quickly,
but
I
know
he
has
done
some
research
on
the
length
of
time
that
incentives
are
offered
and
and
their
effectiveness.
Sorry
to
put
you
on
the
spot
tim.
It
might
take
us
too
long
to
to
get
him
off
mute,
but
but
he
does
have
some
research
available
that
we
can.
We
can
share
with
the
group.
Basically,
from
my
my
understanding
and
oh
tim,
I
think
you
might
be
off
mute.
Would
you
mind
just
chiming
in
real,
quick
well.
I
Yeah,
I
was
just
going
to
plop
something
into
the
chat
actually,
but
that
was
in
the
process
of
typing
it.
When
you
called
on
me,
so
that's
fine.
I
guess
what
I
would
say
is
in
my
opinion,
you
should
limit,
carry
forwards
and
long-term
incentives
to
no
more
than
five
years,
not
only
for
the
revenue
forecasting
problem
that
was
mentioned,
which
is
a
serious
problem,
but
for
two
other
reasons
one.
We
know
that
companies
in
making
location
expansion
decisions
are
pretty
myopic.
They're.
You
know
they're
they're
interested
in
immediate
profitability.
I
The
property
taxes
may
provide
10
years
from
now.
Is
that
going
to
affect
anything?
No,
so
why
do
it
and
then?
The
second
reason,
of
course,
why
people
do
it,
which
I
think
another
reason
against
it
is
that
if
you
want
to
have
a
great
ribbon-cutting
opportunity
and
you're
a
governor
you're
having
the
best
of
both
worlds,
if
you
get
the
political
benefits
now,
but
then
the
next
governor
has
to
pay
a
large
share
of
the
cost.
So
the
political
incentives
here
are
not
good
where,
where
one
party
is
getting
this
huge
political
benefit.
I
H
Thanks
tim
and-
and
I
do
believe
that
there
are
some
programs
out
there
that
limit
the
the
carry
forward
period
that
that
businesses
have
available.
So
if
that
information
is
of
interest,
we
would
be
happy
to
pull
together
a
list
of
programs,
state
programs
that
carry
for
that
limit
carryforwards.
So.
G
I
do
just
thinking
about
kind
of
the
uncertainty,
so
I
guess
we're
talking
about
the
carry
forward
for
like
modifying
the
existing
incentive
with
a
big
liability,
but
it
just
reminded
me
of
you
know
something
that
we've
seen
before
and
karen
joshua
the
great
piece
a
couple
years
ago
on
the
idea,
this
idea
of
sunrise
analysis.
So
one
of
the
things
that
policymakers
can
do
is
before
the
program
even
goes
into
effect.
They
can
ask
for
one
of
your
offices
to
do
a
an
evaluation
of
whatever
the.
G
What
are
the
components
of
this
program
that
could
be
problematic.
So
you
could,
you
could
kind
of
highlight
those
carry
forward
concerns
that
tim
was
talking
about,
and
you
know
big
plug
four
for
maze.
You
guys
did
an
amazing
job
on
the
major
business
headquarters
expansion
program.
I
thought
that
was
really
helpful
for
policymakers
and
you
know
we
want
to
see
you
guys
like
challenge
yourselves
like.
H
H
So
I
that's
a
the
sunrise
piece
I
think
is
is
a
really
good.
Is
a
really
good
point
that
evaluators
don't
need
to
wait
until
it's
time
to
look
back
retrospectively
at
these
programs.
There
are
proactive
steps
that
evaluators
could
take
to
help
inform
decisions
that
are
being
made
now
and
mark.
I
was
hoping
that
you
could
also
maybe
share
some
insights
about
how
evaluators
could
be
involved
on
the
front
end
versus
you
know,
waiting
until
a
couple
years
down
the
road.
F
F
I
think
making
sure
that
the
right
data
is
being
collected
is
a
critical
first
step,
because
you
all
know
how
often
folks
come
to
the
evaluators
at
the
end
of
the
day
and
say
we
need
to
set
up
an
evaluation
for
this
program
so
getting
involved
in
those
come
from
in
those
conversations
early.
You
know
talking
about
the
kind
of
information
that
john
shared
about
what
we've
learned
in
the
past,
about
what
works
and
does
not
work
is,
is
a
really
important
lesson
learned.
F
I
know
people,
you
know,
there's
gonna
be
tremendous
political
pressure
to
respond
to
the
the
squeaky
wheel
to
the
main
street
businesses,
and
you
know
I'd
suggest
for
that.
There's
there's
a
whole
range
of
services.
I
I
loved
you
know.
Many
years
ago
I
worked
with
somebody
who
said
you
can
give
people
a
yes,
but
there's
many
different
components
to
your
yes
and
it
doesn't
have
to
be
an
incentive
program
for
everybody.
H
Yeah
and
laura
also
makes
the
point
to
building
on
that
idea
that
that
talking
with
departments
of
revenue
early
on
may
be
very
helpful
to
make
sure
that
those
departments
can
that
the
systems
in
place
can
provide
that
information.
So
it's
the
making
sure
you're
collecting
it
and
then
making
sure
that
it's
in
a
usable
format
later
on
for
for
evaluations,
let's
see
keenan,
I
think
we've
we're
almost
at
the
social
breaks.
But
I'll
just
ask
this
one.
F
States
what
we're
hearing
from
state
is
that
they
understand
they
need
to
be
flexible
and
they
enter
agreements
asking
for
some
flexibility
and
asking
for
some
relaxation
of
the
targets,
whether
it's
on
reporting,
whether
it's
on
the
the
outcomes.
You
know,
there's
so
much
going
on
at
once
in
terms
of
things
complicating
the
situation
that
they're
getting
you
know,
people
are
engaging
in
those
conversations
already,
if
I'm
understanding
your
question
accurately.
H
Okay,
well,
I
believe
we
are
at
time,
and
I
don't
want
to
take
away
your
social
time
since
I
know
that's
such
a
valuable
part
of
the
roundtable,
thank
you
to
john
and
to
mark
for
those
great
presentations
that
really
help
to
put
into
perspective
the
types
of
things
that
evaluators
will
need
to
consider,
moving
forward
and
opportunities
to
get
involved.
Now
your
work
matters-
and
you
know
just
always
want
to
be
a
cheerleader
for
the
great
work
that
you
all
do,
and
it
can.
H
B
But
the
like
last
time
there
are
some
discussion
questions
and
again
these
are
just
you
know
for
your
to
consider.
You
don't
have
to
talk
about
them,
but
we
wanted
to
give
you
some
guidelines,
and
I
know
they've
been
posted
but
I'll,
just
quickly
read
through
them
in
your
state.
Have
you
noticed
shifts
in
incentive
policy
to
respond
to
covid19
in
the
current
recession?
B
Have
you
noticed
shifts
in
economic
development
strategy
to
respond
to
kovid
in
the
current
recession?
How
do
these
shifts
compare
to
what
occurred
during
the
great
recession?
And,
lastly,
does
your
state
have
incentive
programs
that
are
used
often
for
the
businesses
in
the
hardest
hit
industry
sectors?
Are
these
programs
being
adjusted
to
accelerate
recovery
and
those
are
some
things
to
consider
and
I
think
you're
going
to
be
asked
to
join
a
session
here
in
a
minute.
B
C
C
H
C
C
B
J
B
I
C
B
I
I
Oh,
I
see
a
different
okay.
Let's
try
this
screen
sharing
and
failed
to
start.
The
window
you
selected
is
invalid.
What
do
you
mean
it's
invalid?
I
don't
know
what
that
means.
It's
it's
looking
through
it's
it's
weird!
It's
looking
through
recent
files,
I've
used
or
something
I
don't
know
what
usually,
what
I've
done
before
is
just
at
the
bottom.
It
says:
share
screen
now,
let's
see
select
a
window,
maybe
I
can
do
this
files.
E
G
I
J
I
I
C
C
C
C
B
C
C
I
I
C
C
B
E
E
I'm
jim
landers,
I'm
with
the
john
glenn
school
of
public
affairs
here
at
ohio
state
university
and
the
two
presenters
are
going
to
be
laura,
were
in
student
varsity.
I'm
rarely
I'll
just
speak
a
few
comments
just
to
kind
of
set
things
up.
I
mean
the
session
is
intended
to
provide
incentive
evaluators
with
a
framework
to
help
guide
evaluations
of
incentive
program
outcomes,
particularly
in
the
aftermath
of
the
government
19
recession,
so
just
to
kind
of
lead
off.
I
I'd
like
to
provide
some
context
for
the
session
in
2015
and
2017.
E
The
senate
incentive
evaluators
from
legislative
services
agency
in
indiana,
which
is
where
I
was
employed
at
the
time,
worked
to
analyze
and
evaluate
the
impact
of
the
state's
economic
development
for
an
early
economy,
tax
credit
problem.
It's
a
real
mouthful,
otherwise
known
as
the
edge
credit
program.
E
At
the
time
of
these
evaluations,
I
I
personally,
I
kind
of
wondered
whether
the
universe
would
be
able
to
discern
job
creation.
It
was
driven
by
by
by
edge
credit
recipients,
it
was
potentially
driven
by
credit
versus
job
creation
occurring
independent
of
the
credit,
especially
job
creation
that
was
occurring
naturally
during
the
recovery
after
the
great
recession.
E
E
So
now,
let's
move
ahead
to
code,
19
and
covert
19
recession
and
its
aftermath,
where
I
really
have
similar
questions
when
it
comes
to
evaluating
tax
incentives,
particularly
particularly
job
employment
or
job
creation.
Incentives
and
the
questions
I
have
are
really
two
major
questions
is
how
can
evaluators
discern
whether
jobs
have
been
created
through
the
state
and
senate
programs
versus
federal
programs,
responding
to
the
covenanted
team
recession
and
what
job
growth
is
attributable
to
the
economic
recovery
in
and
of
itself.
E
Laura
wheeler
is
the
associate
director
of
the
center
for
state
and
local
finance
at
georgia
state
university
and
also
holds
the
position
of
senior
research
associate
for
the
fiscal
research
center
at
georgia.
State
she's
mighty
busy.
My
second
job
is
working
at
the
conference.
Actually
during
her
tenure
at
georgia
state,
she
has
conducted
a
variety
of
research
on
state
and
local
government.
Fiscal
and
tax
policy
issues
laura
served
her.
E
She
received
her
phd
in
economics
from
the
maxwell
school
at
syracuse,
university
and
she's,
going
to
discuss
different
evaluation
approaches
and
evaluation
questions
to
ask
including
questions
relating
to
budgetary
and
local
government
impacts
with
all
that
said
I'll
throw
mike
over
to
tim.
So
we
can
get
started
tim.
I
C
I
Okay
is
that
working
yep,
okay?
Well,
first,
I
want
to
thank
jim
and
I
want
to
thank
pew
and
ncsl
for
hosting
this
conference
again.
I
think
this
is
a
great
activity
of
both
organizations
and
I
always
feel
I
learn
a
lot
from
talking
to
all
of
you
about
some
of
the
challenges
you
face
in
evaluating
incentives
at
the
state
level,
and
I
really
look
forward
to
seeing
some
of
the
questions
you
have
during
this
or
for
that
matter,
receiving
questions
you
might
pose
afterwards.
So
I
get
people
emailing
me
all
the
time.
I
I
The
pandemic
adds
noise
and
that's
true.
That's
a
little
bit
of
a
problem.
The
you
know.
We
have
this
huge
recession,
we're
having
a
little
bit
of
recovery,
we'll
you
know,
as
ned
talked
about
there's
a
lot
of
uncertainty.
What
kind
of
recovery
is
it
w
shape?
What
is
it
so
we're
going
to
have
a
lot
of
economic
changes
in
different
industries?
I
That's
noise,
that's
stuff,
driving
different
firms,
growth
expansions
locations
that
has
nothing
to
do
with
incentive
programs
and
then,
of
course,
there's
a
lot
of
policy
stuff
going
on.
So
you're
running
your
state
programs
and
some
of
the
companies
that
might
be
assisting
under
incentive
program
may
be
getting
other
assistance
from
federal
programs
and
then
locations
that
you're
trying
to
there's
various
effects
of
the
stimulus
that
will
vary
by
location
because
well
the
stimulus
that
now
has
expired.
I
But
you
know
there's
there
may
be
another
stimulus
later
on
and
that
that's
going
to
have
location-specific
effects.
That's
all
going
to
add
noise,
so
that
adds
uncertainty
at
estimates.
It
makes
it
a
little
harder
to
detect
things,
but
it
doesn't
fundamentally
change
whether
or
not
you
can
estimate
the
effects
of
incentives.
I
You
can
control
the
noise
if
you
get
the
right
comparison
group,
if
you
get
a
comparison
group,
this
truly
is
comparable
to
either
the
firms
being
assisted
or
the
areas
being
assisted
depending
on
what
the
nature
of
the
program
is,
and
that
can
be
a
good
comparison
group
and
you
can.
You
can
also
underhand
control
things
with
various
variables,
representing
some
of
the
different
things
going
on,
but
in
you
know,
any
control
for
industries
control
for
how
much
stimulus
was
received
in
the
zone
that
that
kind
of
thing.
I
The
real
problem
remains
that
economic
development
programs
frequently
operate
with
heavy
selection
of
either
assisted
firms
or
assisted
areas
and
frequently
that
selection
is
not
made
in
a
way
that
we're
able
to
describe
by
rules
that
we
can
capture-
and
you
know
sometimes
there
are
good
reasons
for
this.
Sometimes
there
are
not
good
reasons
for
this
and
that
really
messes
things
up.
The
selection
and
programs
that
are
more
rules-based
are
easier
to
evaluate.
I
would
also
argue
they're,
they're,
they're,
easier,
they're,
probably
better
programs.
I
I
think
it's
better
to
have
rules,
because
I
think
you
don't
have
rules
pretty
soon.
The
programs
just
expand
in
all
kinds
of
weird
ways
and
they
may
not
be
achieving
their
original
intent.
We
were
discussing
earlier
programs
expanding
to
compass,
the
entire
state
or
moving
from
one
industry
to
all
industries,
and
I
think
once
you
allow
programs
to
kind
of
that
are
not
governed
by
rules.
I
think
it's
it's
harder
to
keep
the
original
purpose
now.
I
I
think
you
can
see
that
it's
possibly
that
way
programs
rigorously
even
during
the
pandemic,
because
that's
certainly
true,
for
example,
of
the
ppp
program,
which
actually
has
gotten
some
very
good,
rigorous
evaluations
already
and
why
we
were
able
to
do
that
is
first
of
all,
the
program
has
an
explicit
rule,
which
is
there's
a
size
cut
off
for
assistance
and
by
the
way.
Why
am
I
analyzing
ppp?
You
might
say,
that's
not
a
state
of
value
economic
development
program.
As
far
as
I'm
concerned,
it's
an
economic
development
program.
I
It
happens
to
be
run
by
the
federal
government,
but
it's
an
economic
development
program.
It's
assisting
individual
firms
with
a
forgivable
loan
and
there
was
a
size
cut
off
that
varied
by
industry,
but
typically
was
500.
Workers
and
people
have
evaluated
the
program
by
comparing
firms
just
above
and
just
below
the
size,
cut-off
499
versus
501,
essentially,
and
then
the
other
way
that
program's
been
evaluated
is
it's
very
clear
that
whether
or
not
a
firm
got
assistance
from
ppp
rested
a
lot
on
what
banks
it
previously
had.
I
A
relationship
with
of
some
sort
and
banks
differed
enormously
and
how
quickly
they
were
able
to
get
the
money
out,
and
so
your
odds
of
getting
a
loan
varied
with
the
happenstance
of
what
type
of
bank
you
were
with.
So
we've
already
had
some
very
good
evaluations
by
some
top
economist,
using
both
those
approaches.
Raj
chetty
at
harvard
and
a
bunch
of
people
have
done
the
evaluation
david
out
or
at
mit,
and
a
bunch
of
people
have
also
done
the
evaluation.
I
They
both
found
that
ppp
does
create
jobs,
but
at
a
very
hefty
cost
per
job
of
somewhere
between
160
000
380
000
per
job.
And
of
course
they
both
raised
the
issue
of
how
long
do
these
created
jobs
last?
Are
we
talking
about
actually
creating
a
new
permanent
job
that
would
otherwise
disappear
from
the
economy?
Or
are
we
talking
about
just
delaying
things
or
or
or
or
just
temporarily,
propping
up
the
jobs
and-
and
maybe
the
we'll
see
later
on,
they
plan
on
continuing
that
evaluation?
I
I
They
did
an
evaluation
based
on
bank
relationships
based
on
which
firms
were
had
relationships
with
banks
that
were
more
likely
to
get
the
ppp
money
out
and
they
found
a
cost
per
job.
Much
lower,
only
60
000
jobs.
Now
both
of
those
answers
by
the
way
could
be
right,
I
mean,
in
other
words
one
study
is
implicitly,
is
asking
the
question
for
firms
that
are
close
to
the
size
cut
off
small
firms
that
are
that
are
that,
are
you
know,
480
490,
495.
I
Jobs
and
therefore
just
made
the
size
cut
off
how
effective
is
ppp
and-
and-
and
I'm
sorry
about
that-
I-
how
effective
was
ppp
in
in
in
in
creating
jobs,
and
they
found
a
very
high
cost
per
job,
but
that
could
simply
reflect
that.
Maybe
the
program
was
not
particularly
effective
in
saving
jobs
in
companies
that
had
400
or
more
employees,
but
of
course
there
were
other
firms
that
were
assisted
and
the
banking
relationship
thing
may
capture
more
of
differences
among
smaller
firms
eligible
for
this.
I
I
You'll
have
dueling
estimates.
People
will
never
agree
on
what
its
impact
was,
and
the
reason
is
the
way
it
was
set
up.
Is
there
were
eligible
census,
tracts
based
on
various
criteria
being
needy
and
states
were
allowed
to
select
25
of
the
eligible
contracts
and
states
did
not
have
to
use
any
quantitative
procedure
to
do
that
and
they
used.
You
know
it's
not
different
states
did
different
things
and.
I
You
know
my
personal
opinion,
who
knows
you
know,
did,
did
states
select
opportunity
zones
based
on
these
are
the
media's
areas
and
therefore
you'd
expect
the
selected
area
out
of
the
eligible
to
be
doing
better
or
did
they
select
them
based
on
hey.
We
know
that
some
people
are
interested
in
investing
in
this
area.
I
Why
don't
we
encourage
it
with
this
free
federal
money,
free
federal
capital
gains
break,
which
is
what
it
was
called
against
tax
break,
and
you
know
that,
may
that
may
it
may
have
selected
areas
that
we're
going
to
develop
anyway.
Now
the
white
house,
council
economic
advisors
claim
that
the
program
was
highly
effective.
I
Now
that
was
based
on
something:
that's
not
necessarily
a
bad
methodology
as
I'll
mention
in
a
minute,
but
they
essentially
assumed
that
they
could
take
some
research
literature
on
how
sensitive
capital
investment
is
to
taxes
and
just
apply
it
to
opportunity
zones
and
that
that
research
literature
had
nothing
to
do
with
distressed
areas,
for
example.
So
essentially,
they're
assuming
they
can
take
a
literature
that
nothing
to
do
with
investing
in
distressed
areas
and
just
apply
it
to
distressed
areas.
I
Well,
okay,
maybe
you
can,
but
you
you're
you're,
making
a
lot
of
assumptions
you're,
assuming
a
lot
of
can
openers
and
I'm
an
economist.
I
assume,
can
openers
all
the
time,
but
you
don't
want
to
go
too
far.
So
why
can
we
rigorously
evaluate
ppp?
We
can
out
by
opportunity
zones.
As
I
said,
ppp
is
allocated
based
on
knowing
rules,
firm
size
and
knowing
procedures.
We
know
that
bank
relationships
made
a
huge
difference
and
a
very
large
share
of
those
qualifying
got
loans.
I
Opportunity
zones
are
selected
for
unknown
reasons.
We
don't
know
what's
going
on
there,
and
so
it's
very
difficult
to
do
an
evaluation
of
opportunity
zones.
I
mean
you
could
compare
the
select
with
the
unselected
algorithm,
I
said,
and
you
could
also
try
comparing
those
who
just
made
the
eligibility
cutoff
for
those
who
just
didn't,
but
only
25
percent
of
those
who
made
the
elderly
cut
off
got
selected.
I
That
creates
a
huge
amount
of
noise
in
trying
to
estimate
that
I
assume
people
at
some
point
will
try
to
do
that,
but
I,
I
think,
they're
going
to
have
fairly
imprecise
estimates
from
that
we'll
see
now
the
state
local
level.
You
know,
I
think
the
same
thing
holds
depending
on
the
program
design,
whether
or
not
you
use
rules
you,
you
can
get
very
different
results.
I
There's
some
great
evaluation.
Recently
done
of
the
north
carolina
job
creation,
credit
program.
It
was
able
to
get
great
evaluations
because
the
credit
per
job
varied
a
lot
over
time
and
by
county
it
was
basically
north
carolina,
divides
counties
and,
at
least
at
this
time,
divided
counties
into
three
tiers
of
assistance
based
on
distress,
those
tiers
where
reality
were
reset
each
year
and
they
had
a
job
creation.
I
And
so
we
we
calculated
that
it
was
equivalent
to
a
very
high
cost
per
job
created
and
it
was
not
particularly
cost-effective
program.
I
also
along
with
ellen
harper
and
some
and
some
other
folks
at
craic,
did
a
study
of
michigan
business
development
program.
Now
I
think
someone
from
michigan
was
here
earlier
one
of
my
friends
from
medc
and
of
course
our
study
was
the
greatest
thing
since
sliced
bread,
but
it
we
really
couldn't
do
a
rigorous
causal
evaluation
of
the
program
and
we
did
not
state
we
did
so.
I
We
did
a
simulation
study
in
some
ways,
similar
to
what
the
u.s
treasury
department
did
with
opportunity
zones.
We
essentially
said
well,
okay.
We
cannot
estimate
the
impact
in
the
michigan
business
development
program
because
the
program
is
highly
selective
of
what
firms
get
this
credit.
It's
a
one-time
job
creation,
credit.
It's
like
7,
500
per
job
created,
that's
awarded
to
firms.
It's
discretionary.
I
Some
firms
get
it.
We
don't
have
a
comparison
group
really
and
even
if
we
could
get
comparable
firms
in
the
state.
Obviously
the
firms
that
received
the
credit
were
highly
selected.
They
were
firms
interested
in
general
and
expanding
or
locating
the
state.
There's
not
really
a
great
comparison
group.
We
just
did
a
simulation
and
said
based
on
prior
studies.
Here's
how
sensitive
location
expansion
decisions
are
to
cost,
and
you
know
so
so,
essentially
the
rule.
I
The
reason
for
the
difference
in
evaluation
is
whether
or
not
the
the
in
the
north
carolina
washington
cases.
The
credits
were
widely
used.
We
had
known
rules
determining
the
amount
of
the
credit
that
either
a
firm
or
a
zone
was
eligible
for
in
the
case
of
michigan's
program.
Instead,
there
was
a
high
selection
of
firms
among
eligible
firms,
as
I
mentioned
previously
the
opportunity
zones.
There
are
a
high
selection
of
zones
among
eligible
zones.
Those
all
create
huge
problems
for
evaluation.
I
So
what
do
you
what
to
do?
So?
What
so?
Here's
some
advice,
one.
I
think
people
shouldn't
over
claim.
If
you
can't
do
a
rigorous
causal
evaluation,
don't
claim
you
can't?
Don't
you
know
if
you
have
a
lousy
comparison
group,
just
a
comparison
group
just
admit
it
and
insert
numerous
caveats
and
do
not
claim
that
this
is
a
definitive
study.
Second,
and
I
think
laura
will
get
into
more
descriptive.
Analysis
is
helpful,
even
if
you
cannot
do
rigorous
causal
analysis,
so
I
don't
think
you
know
who
gets
the
incentives?
What
are
their
wage
rates?
I
What
industries,
what
size,
what
location?
How
many
of
those
else
will
get
it,
how
it
varies
over
time?
What
are
the
selection
procedure
for
the
program?
Are
they
objective?
Are
they
subjective
how
how
do
how
do
firms
get
in
this
program?
How
do
zones
get
into
this
program,
whatever
whether
it's
a
firm,
specific
program
or
a
zone
specific
program,
and
then,
as
I
mentioned,
I
do
think
that
you
can,
if
you
can't
do
a
rigorous
causal
evaluation,
doing
some
simulations
based
on
to
see
how
sensitive
results
are
to
different
assumptions.
I
So,
if
you're
willing
to
make
certain
assumptions
about
what
the
cost
per
job
is
or
what
the
probability
that
you've
tipped
the
location
decision
is,
what
would
the
benefit
cost
ratio
for
incentives
be
what
would
the
cost
per
job
be,
and
similarly,
what
what
are
some
cut-offs
for?
What
what
minimum?
What
would
be
the
maximum
cost
per
job
at
which
the
program
would
pay
off
or
what?
What
would
be
the
minimum
number
of
decisions
you
need
to
tip
for
to
pay
off?
And,
finally,
you
know
one
task
in
evaluating
for
better
evaluation.
I
We
could
evaluate
this
more
rigorously
if
the
selection
procedures
the
program
is
using
were
made
more
quantifiable.
You
know
that,
for
example,
if
you're
going
to
select
firms
for
the
program,
why
not
have
a
hundred
point
scale
to
select
the
firms
or,
if
you're
selecting
areas
to
assist
under
the
program?
Why
not
have
a
hundred
point
scale
to
select
what
areas
are
assisted?
If
you
can
make
the
rules
explicit
and
quantifiable,
then
you
can
get
a
much
more
rigorous
evaluation.
It
seems
to
me
that
over
time
we
should
be
trying
to
structure
these
programs.
I
I'm
not
thinking
that
we'll
ever
going
to
have
many
randomized
controlled
trials
in
economic
development,
but
we
can
have
more
programs
that
are
set
up
in
such
a
way
that
there
is
some
reasonable
quantitative
way
in
which
eligibles
are
selected
for
assistance,
and
I
think
that
would
not
only
make
for
better
evaluations.
I
I
think
it
would
make
for
better
programs
in
terms
of
effectiveness.
So
let
me
stop
there
and
I'll
turn
things
over
to
laura.
J
Yep
you're
all
set
okay,
so
so
I'm
gonna,
I'm
gonna
pick
up
on
a
couple
of
things
that
tim
said
as
well,
which
is
you
know
when
we
first
started
thinking
about
this
this
session.
What
we
were
gonna
say
we
we
both
agreed
that
the
pandemic
just
provides
a
whole
bunch,
more
noise
and
and
things
to
things
to
think
about
in
in
in
a
world
that's
already
difficult,
and-
and
I
would
I
would
not
to
not
to
be
more
pessimistic
than
ned,
but
I
would.
J
J
I
don't
know
the
the
lawmakers
and
the
policymakers
have
an
awful
lot
on
their
plate.
They
have
a
lot
of
voices
in
their
ears
and
they
have
an
awful
lot
on
their
plate,
and
many
of
them
just
don't
know
how
these
programs
are
run
and
they
may
only
hear
selective
pieces
from
from
various
constituents
or
things
like
that,
and
so
one
of
the
things
that
I
think
is
very
valuable,
is
providing
a
descriptive
analysis
again
how
many
taxpayers
are
taking
this?
J
That
are
being
you
know,
taken
over
time
in
the
post
covert
period,
incentives
are
going
to
have
less
of
a
value
to
taxpayers
because
they
have
less
tax
liability
to
off
to
to
offset
against
the
incentive.
So
what
does
that
do
to
a
tax
incentive
when
you
don't
have
the
same
tax
liability
you
used
to,
and
so
I
think,
understanding
who
is
taking
these
tax
incentives?
J
You
know:
where
are
these
benefits
going
and
where
do
these
taxpayers
live?
And
that
was
helpful
and
again
it
was
not.
It
was
not
a
challenging
sort
of
analysis.
It
kind
of
laid
out
some
very
standard,
graphs
and
and
trends
and
various
charts.
The
more
challenging
part
is
to
make
sure
you
get
the
the
right
data
and
understand
all
the
data
from
the
department
of
revenue.
J
But
it
can
be
done
fairly
quickly
with
with
fewer
resources
and
still
provide
a
lot
of
information,
because
it
was
always
astounding
to
me.
The
lawmakers
just
didn't
know
some
of
the
some
of
the
nuances
about
how
these
incentive
programs
work,
they're,
very
knowledgeable
individuals
and
when
you
chat
with
them
before
or
after
a
meeting
and-
and
you
know
you
just
kind
of
get
into
their
heads
they're-
asking
the
right
questions.
J
Where
do
employees
work?
You
know
now
we're
working
from
home.
We
may
not
be
working
in
the
same
state
that
we
were
working
before
if
you
think
about
the
tcga
effects,
you've
got,
who
is
itemizing,
who
is
not
itemizing
and
and
so
applying
some
of
the
past
literature
and
some
of
the
past
studies
to
the
future
world.
J
J
How
is
that
applicable
to
to
today,
and
you
can
go
into
implant
and
and
remy
they're-
very,
very
sophisticated
models.
They
do
a
very
good
job,
but
they're
very
complex,
and
they
will,
as
a
as
a
benefit,
they'll
provide
kind
of
a
standard
output
for
all
the
evaluations
that
you
can
do
with
them,
which
is
nice
for
comparing
across
them,
but
they
don't
really
get
at
this
issue
of.
Did
the
incentive
create
any
new
activity?
J
You
have
to
make
that
kind
of
assumption,
and
and
as
I
said
there,
there's
going
to
be
how
these
models
change
as
we
move
forward
into
the
postcoded
world
is
going
to
be
it's
going
to
be
that's
going
to
be
difficult,
and
so
also
comparing
a
return
on
investment.
Calculation
done
in
a
different
state
for
perhaps
pre-coping
may
not
be
completely
applicable
in
in
in
our
postcode
world.
J
J
I
I
am
more
and
more
advocating
some
some
very
sound,
descriptive
analysis
based
on,
like
tim,
said,
alternative
scenarios.
What's
the
break-even
point,
some
some
just
some
some
some.
You
know
what,
if
kind
of
examples
that
will
help
lawmakers
understand
how
these
things
work
and
and
how
they
might
play
out
over
time.
J
I
have
some
examples
here,
I'm
not
going
to
go
through
them.
I
think
we're
running
over
time
just
a
bit,
but
I
did
want
to
take
just
a
minute.
The
these
are.
I
found
very
good
examples,
and
many
of
the
many
of
the
states
are
already
doing
some
combination
of
these
sorts
of
things.
Now
I
found
that
very
helpful
to
me
to
think
about
how
we
may
craft
our
legislation
for
for
doing
these
evaluations.
J
I
don't
get
to
nobody's,
asked
me
how
to
craft
the
legislation
they're
just
going
to
provide
it
to
me,
but
I,
if
asked,
I
wanted
to
have
an
answer,
and
so
I
wanted
to
copy
what
many
of
y'all
are
already
doing,
but
but
I
have
done
some
evaluations
for
georgia,
so
it's
kind
of
a
test
case
and
we
and
we
did
set
up
this
this
sort
of
rubric.
It
actually
follows
what
alabama
kirk
y'all
y'all
got.
J
Some
work
done
had
some
work
done
by
two
economists
at
the
university
of
tennessee,
matt,
murray
and
and
don
bruce,
and
they
used
a
similar
sort
of
rubric
of
other
questions
to
ask
in
the
evaluation-
and
I
think
these
are
going
to
become
more
important
as
we
as
we
talk
about,
because
we're
going
to
have
we're
going
to
have
data
limitations,
but
there's
still
a
lot
we
can
talk
about
in
terms
of.
Why
is
the
subsidy
needed?
How
is
it
crafted?
J
J
J
J
How
do
all
these
things
influence
the
state
incentives
and
and
more
importantly,
how
do
they?
How
do
they
influence
how
the
firm
behaves?
Just
just
on
itself
and
then
and
then
we
can
think
about
how
how
the
firm
works
now
and
then
how
the
incentive
is
going
to
work
with
it
and
then
we've
already.
You
know
somebody
already
raised
the
structure
in
the
administration.
J
J
What
are
the
local
government
impacts
and
how?
How
does
that
play
out
because
we'll
find
off
times
that
they
are
not
uniformly
distributed,
so
that
some
state
incentives
will
benefit
local
governments
or
or
harm
local,
some
local
governments
in
the
state
differently?
And
so
we
have
been
asked
to
incorporate
or
think
about
that
part
as
well,
because
that's
very
helpful
to
the
lawmakers-
and
these
don't
have
to
be
fancy
econometrics.
J
They
can
be
more
discussions
and
things
but
there,
but
they
provide
some
framework,
especially
at
a
time
when
we're
all
going
to
be
struggling
with
clean
data
to
to
analyze
that
but
four
question,
because
there's
been
so
much
noise
going
on
behind
us
or
around
us
because
of
the
last
several
years
with
with
tax
reform
and
and
covet
and
then
anything
to
come
right.
So
so
I
think
these
this
framework
worked
before,
but
I
think
it's
gonna
it.
J
E
Right,
okay:
well,
there's
been
a
lot
of
q
a
going
on
in
the
chat,
so
I'm
going
to
try
and
do
a
little
free
restyling
here
on
the
question
and
answer,
I
I
think
there's
there's
been
several
questions
that
I
think
go
to
tim's
sort
of
commons
comments
about
evaluation
boy.
I
don't
know
if
I
could
say
a
valuability
of
incentives
there.
E
There
were
questions
in
the
chat
about
scoring
systems
being
implemented
by
state
and
local
governments
and
about
just
you
know,
but
but
for
clause,
and
so
I
guess
I
would
throw
this
out
for
tim
and
to
laura.
Both
you
know
are
there:
what
are
what
are
you
know
what
in
terms
of
a
valuability,
what
are
things
that
can
be
built
into
these
incentive
programs
of
these
statutes
that
can
make
them
more
easier
or
more
easier
to
evaluate
for
incentive
values.
I
Well,
as
I
said,
if
you
had
a
quantitative
system
for
determining
eligibility
among
for
determining
who
got
the
program
among
eligibles
scoring
system-
and
that
could
be
again,
I'm
I'm
thinking
of
two
different
types
of
economic,
volatile
programs.
Those
are
the
those
that
aid
geographic
areas
like
enterprise
zone
type,
things,
opportunity
zones
and
those
that
ain't
eight
individual
firms
and
in
either
case
you
could
certainly
in
the
case
of
zones.
I
think
there's
no
reason
why
you
couldn't
have
a
quantitative
system
to
determine
eligible
zones.
I
I
guess
they
could
have
done
that,
but
instead
they
said
we're
going
to
do
a
lottery
to
determine
who
gets
the
credit
and
depending
your
lottery
number
will
or
I
might
afford
exactly
how
they
did
it.
But
it
was
a
random
assignment
thing,
so
it
actually
is
probably
that's,
probably
the
most
rigorous
evaluation
ever
of
any
economic
development
center
program.
The
cash
incentive.
J
That's
part
of
the
financing
of
these
things,
at
least
it
is
in
in
georgia.
And
so
if
you,
if
you
do
those
sorts
of
things,
what
we
hear
is
that
that
really
that
really
diminishes
the
power
of
the
incentive
right,
because
because
you're
not
sure
you're
going
to
get
it
and
and
the
project
may
not
be
viable.
If
you
don't
get
it
and
so,
but
at
the
same
time
there
you
know
we
we
do
see
in
many
of
these
in
incentives
this.
I
C
J
I
I
If
you
had
enough
of
those
type
of
provisions
which
you
might
want
to
have
anyway
right
right,
then
you
conceivably
could
evaluate
the
credit
based
on
seeing
how
the
probability
of
choosing
georgia
varied
with
how
much
for
credit
you
could
get
so
so
again,
I
think
if
you
think
creatively
about
a
lot
of
these
programs,
even
if
you're
not
going
to
say
yes
or
no,
if
you're
going
to
vary
the
amount
of
the
credit,
so
maybe
you
want
to
give
everyone
something
everyone
gets
a
prize.
That's
today's
and.
J
With
these
other
issues
in
mind
and
and
when
you,
when
you
hear
them
when
you
hear
the
lawmakers
talking
about
they're,
asking
these
questions,
but
but
they're,
but
they're
they're
kind
of
on
their
own,
and
so
I
think
it
would
be
helpful
to
them
to
have
other
voices
at
the
front
end
of
crafting
the
legislation.
Of
course,
what
what
we
find
a
lot
of
times
is
that
maybe
that's
not
always
done
intentionally
right.
J
Things
show
up
at
the
last
minute
in
the
middle
of
the
night
of
the
last
day
of
session,
and-
and
you
know
we're
not
the
only
state
that
has
that
problem.
But
but
you
know
there
are
other
states,
I
think,
perhaps
with
the
pressures
that
states
will
be
under
in
this.
As
we
come
into
this
as
we
come
out
of
the
recession
that
there
may
be
pressure
to
tailor
and
target
some
of
these
incentive
programs
and
think
about
some
of
these
provisions
about
how
to
do
this.
A
little
better.
B
Sorry,
perfect,
perfect
timing.
So
yes,
so
thank
you,
jim
and
tim
and
laura
and
to
all
of
our
speakers
today.
I
think
everyone
provided
a
lot
of
valuable
information
and
I
also
want
to
extend
a
big
thank
you
to
everyone
in
the
audience.
We
appreciate
your
attention
and
your
participation.
I
know
that
you
know
three
hour.
Long
zoom
meeting
is
is
a
lot
of
computer
time,
but
thank
you.
I
think
it
was
well
worth
it
so
this
wraps
up
the
formal
programming
for
day
one.
B
We
do
have
a
few
minutes
set
aside
for
anyone
who
wants
to
stick
around
and
chat
or
you
are
welcome
to
sign
off.
But
if
you
have
burning,
questions
still
feel
free
to
stay
and
then
tomorrow
we'll
be
reconvening
at
the
same
time
as
today.
So
that's
1,
30
eastern
10,
30,
pacific
and
I
know
we
have
a
lot
of
people
from
hawaii
and
alaska,
and
I
know
it's
super
early
for
you
all.