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From YouTube: CBO Session Video
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A
All
right,
it's
a
screen
shared
fabulous
great.
Thank
you
all.
A
I
am
happy
to
be
here
on
behalf
of
cbo
and
again,
as
alluded
to
I'm
joined
by
two
of
my
colleagues,
and
so
what
we
want
to
do
today
is
most
importantly,
provide
you
all
with
a
forum
to
ask
questions
and
to
get
a
better
understanding
of
sort
of
what
cbo
does
and
how
we
go
about
our
revenue
projections,
but
to
sort
of
start
that
I'm
going
to
go
through
a
relatively
short
presentation
to
sort
of
tell
you
a
little
bit
about
cbo
if
you're
unfamiliar
with
cbo
tell
you
a
little
bit
about
the
process
by
which
we
sort
of
create
a
baseline
and
our
revenue.
A
Projections
have
kathleen
and
jennifer
talk
a
little
bit
about
their
relative
areas
of
expertise
and
then
sort
of
open
the
floor
for
any
questions.
So
hopefully
the
prepared
remarks
will
be.
You
know,
15
20
minutes,
probably
and
then
again
lots
of
opportunity
for
questions.
So
I
encourage
all
of
you
to
certainly
think
about
what
questions
you
want
to
ask
and
we
sort
of
probably
think
that's
the
most
productive
way
to
spend
the
bulk
of
our
our
time
today.
A
So
the
cbo
so
cbo's,
almost
50
years
old
at
this
point,
cbo,
was
created
to
provide
the
congress
with
a
sort
of
objective
nonpartisan
way
to
get
the
congress's
questions
regarding
the
budget
of
the
economy
answered
this
dates
back
to
an
era.
The
nixon
administration,
or
perhaps
the
executive
branch
of
the
legislative
branch
didn't
work
too,
cooperatively
together,
and
so
we
were
intended.
A
We
were
created
intended
to
sort
of
give
an
independent
voice,
an
independent
perspective
to
the
congress,
and
so
that
is
what
we
do
and
we
are
explicitly
you
know,
designed
to
facilitate
the
budgetary
process
of
the
congress,
and
so
you'll
see
that
thematically
through
our
comments,
as
it's
very
much
geared
to
having
the
congress
run
through
the
annual
budgetary
process
and
to
make
the
decisions
that
are
necessary
to
support
that.
A
And
so,
if
you
want
to
think
about
cbo,
I
think
it's
important
to
think
about
is
advisory
and
that
we
are
not
making
recommendations.
We
are
not
dictating
anything
we're
providing
our
analysis.
It's
objective.
We
are
sort
of
non-partisan.
A
The
sort
of
budget
baseline
is
going
to
be
critical
for
that
and
so
in
broad
outlines.
What's
the
baseline
well,
the
baseline
is
simply
a
series
of
estimates
or
projections
of
all
the
budgetary
items.
So
all
the
spending
categories,
all
the
revenue
categories,
the
net
spending
on
interest
so
sort
of
the
cost
of
servicing
the
debt
and
the
resulting
deficits
for
the
budget
period.
The
budget
period
is,
you
know
the
current
year
and
the
subsequent
10..
So
we've
been
typically
talking
over
the
past
year
through
2031..
A
A
But
if
you
really
want
to
sort
of
give
jennifer
kathleen
a
hard
time,
you
can
ask
them
for
what
their
forecast
is
out
to
2050.,
but
when
we
sort
of
create
these
forecasts,
these
projections,
this
baseline,
is
inherently
linked
to
an
economic
forecast,
as
we
are
forecasting
the
state
of
the
economy
for
each
one
of
those
years
and
when
we're
doing
that
projection
of
the
state
of
the
economy,
as
well
as
the
budgetary
forecast.
A
It's
really
important
to
understand
that
what
congress
has
asked
us
to
do
is
to
project
that
assuming
current
laws
stay
in
place,
and
that
is
important
because
it
provides
them
a
benchmark
for
the
consideration
legislation,
which
is
our
primary
purpose,
but
it
certainly
means
that
what
we
are
not
doing
is
predicting
the
most
likely
outcomes,
and
that
is.
We
fully
expect
that
congress
will
actually
make
some
decisions
in
the
future
and
those
decisions
about
budgetary
outcomes,
and
so
we're
not
trying
to
predict
that
we
are
explicitly
saying
if
congress
doesn't
make
any
future
decisions.
A
What
would
the
budgetary
direct
trajectory
and
the
economy
look
like
in
that
state
of
the
world,
and
that
has
important
consequences
for
us,
but
it's
also
important
for
interpretation,
and
so
I
think,
alluding
to
a
question
that
may
come
come
up
down.
The
road
is
like
that
is
notably
different
from
what
the
president
does
when
he
does
his
budget.
A
The
president's
budget
is
premised
that
everything
that
the
president
wishes
to
enact
via
legislation
are
put
in
place
through
regulations
actually
comes
to
pass
and
that
may
very
well
have
impacts
on
the
economy
and
impacts
on
the
budget,
and
so
those
differences
and
sort
of
the
starting
point
can
also
mean
that
you
need
to
interpret
the
outcomes
from
what
you
see
from
cbo
and
what
you
see
from
other
folks,
including
the
administration,
will
differ
for
that
reason.
A
So
we
do
this
baseline
on
a
regular
basis
in
a
typical
year,
which
we
have
not
seen
in
a
long
while
we
would
typically
do
it
two
or
three
times
a
year,
a
idealized
schedule.
We
do
a
release
in
late
january.
We
would
update
it.
You
know
the
end
of
march
beginning
of
april
and
then
we'd
update
it
again.
Sometimes
in
the
summer.
Sometimes
that's
a
july
update.
A
Sometimes
it's
an
august
update,
but
typically
it
it
is
done
before
labor
day,
and
these
are
all
reported
in
a
report
that
we
call
the
budget
and
economic
album
because
of
the
pandemic
and
also
the
pace
of
legislation
considered
by
congress
over
the
past
two
years
that
schedule's
been
completely
upturned.
The
most
recent
forecast
that
we
did
was
released
in
the
first
week
of
july.
A
That
was
it's
when
you
think
about
that's
the
release
date,
but
it
means
that
it
was
premised
on
our
understanding
of
the
state
of
the
economy
and
the
state
of
the
world.
You
know
in
late
may,
early
june
is
essentially
when
we
locked
in
the
economic
data
and
the
revenue
data
we're
using
for
that
forecast,
and
so
we'll
talk
a
little
bit
that
forecast
so
now
we're
currently
in
the
process
of
creating
our
next
forecast.
A
It's
unclear
whether
that
will
be
released
in
I'm
certain
it'll,
be
released
in
2022.,
I'm
uncertain,
which
month
of
2022
it'll
get
released.
It
part
that
will
depend
on
the
pace
of
legislative
activity
in
the
coming
weeks.
A
So
how
does
congress
use
the
baseline
and
well
as
I've
alluded
to
its
primary
purpose
and
the
purpose
of
the
agencies
to
facilitate
the
budget
process
and
so
to
facilitate
the
budget
process?
It
means
that
they're
going
to
use
our
baseline
as
a
benchmark
to
consider
the
budgetary
implications
of
any
legislation
they
consider.
A
That
means
they're
also
going
to
use
it
for
their
budget
resolution.
Their
budget
resolution
is
a
necessary
step
for
a
legislative
vehicle
used
in
the
congress
called
reconciliation,
which
is
frequently
at
least
recently
in
the
news.
A
But
it's
true
that
any
piece
of
legislation
to
sort
of
work
through
the
legislative
process
of
the
congress,
it
typically
will
need
an
assessment
from
cbo
about
whether
it
will
have
an
impact
on
the
deficit,
and
so
we
are
providing
that
it's
an
advisory
piece
of
information
that
we
provide
to
the
budget
committees,
and
then
the
budget
committees
decide
whether
it's
going
to
be
used
for
budget
enforcement
purposes
or
not.
So
that's
the
primary
use
of
our
baseline
and
the
document
we
create.
A
But
it's
then
also
used
for
other
analytical
products
created
by
the
agency.
We
do
an
analysis
of
the
president's
budget
every
year,
every
two
years
we
do
a
big
volume
on
policies
or
options
that
might
be
considered
to
reduce
the
deficit,
and
so
all
those
are
relative
to
our
baseline
and
then
we
write
reports
typically
of
congressional
requests.
Looking
into
particular
topic
areas,
many
of
those
reports
again
have
policies,
sometimes
illustrative,
sometimes
specific
policies.
A
All
that
work
is
relative
to
whatever
baseline
is
in
place,
and
as
I
alluded
to
why
the
focus
is
on
the
10-year
forecast,
we
also
have
a
series
of
reports
of
the
long-term
budget
outlook
that
typically
focuses
over
a
30-year
period.
That's
also
hinged,
on
the
the
same
baseline
but
extended
for
an
additional
20
years.
A
And
so,
when
we're
doing
these
forecasts,
recognizing
we're
assuming
congress
will
not
enact
anything,
and
so
inevitably
congress
does.
So
it's
often
then
difficult
to
look
back
in
time
and
think
about
that
counter
factual
of
well.
How
would
the
budget
outcomes
be
different
if
this
piece
of
legislation
wasn't
enacted?
A
And
then
we
have
a
regular
series
of
reports
focusing
on
the
accuracy
of
our
economic
forecasts,
the
accuracy
of
our
our
spending
projections,
a
separate
report
on
the
accuracy
of
our
revenue
projections,
where
we
go
back
and
look
over
long
periods
of
time
and
try
to
gauge
our
accuracy.
And
then
we
use
that
information.
Every
time
we
use
a
baseline
to
make
statements
of
if
our
pass
accuracy
is
an
indicator.
What
our
future
accuracy
would
be
here
is
a
sense
of
how
much
you
might
expect
actual
outcomes
to
range
around.
A
The
point
estimate
that
we're
providing
you,
so
it's
not
quite
a
confidence
interval,
but
it
is
trying
to
make
sure
that
people
understand
that
we're
trying
to
be
accurate,
but
there
is
uncertainty
and
trying
to
characterize
that
uncertainty.
We
also
write
a
a
report
every
year
jennifer.
A
It's
probably
the
person
asked
questions
when
it
comes
to
about
the
accuracy
of
our
forecast
for
the
prior
year,
so
we
we
just
entered,
or
on
that
october
we
entered
fiscal
year
2022
at
the
federal
level,
and
so
we're
currently
writing
a
report
about
the
accuracy
of
our
forecast
for
fy
21,
which
was
which
was
concluded,
admittedly,
quite
a
challenging
task
to
try
to
predict
revenues
and
spending
in
the
epidemic
and
given
all
the
legislation
that
congress
enacted.
A
So
I've
alluded
to
most
of
this
slide
about
the
uncertainty
of
our
forecast.
We
again
are
projecting
current
law,
but
we'll
acknowledge
that
that
even
under
current
law,
you
know,
there's
great
uncertainty
as
to
what
our
forecast
is
and
the
degree
of
uncertainty
increases
over
time.
A
In
fact,
we
properly
sort
of
call
that
thinking
about
the
fan
chart
around
our
projections
and
that
that
fan
chart
expands
over
time
as
we
move
further
away,
and
we
try
to
make
sure
that
congress
understands
sort
of
what
that
range
is,
and
we
also
try
to
make
sure
that
people
understand
that
particularly
the
budgetary
outcomes
are
very
sensitive
to
the
economic
outcomes
and
so
trying
to
make
sure
people.
A
All
revenue
sources
are
some
more
than
others,
but
particularly
corporate
tax
receipts
and
capital
gains
are
are
very,
very
sensitive
in
the
near
term
to
the
state
of
the
economy,
and
so
we
want
to.
While
we're
giving
a
point
estimate,
we
want
to
make
sure
people
understand
how
uncertain
those
things
are.
A
Okay,
so
let's
talk
a
little
bit
about
revenues
in
particular.
So
that's
our
area
of
expertise,
we're
all
from
the
tax
analysis
division,
maybe
more
appropriately.
The
revenue
analysis
division.
Since
we
look
at
more
than
taxes,
we
look
at
every
source
of
revenue,
so
that
includes
clearly
individual
taxes
is
the
single
largest
revenue
source
for
the
federal
government
about
two
trillion
dollars
over
true
trillion
dollars
in
fy
2021,
so
about
half
of
total
federal
revenues
came
from
the
corporate
tax,
the
next
largest
tax
or
sorry
from
the
individual
income
tax.
A
The
next
largest
tax
is
payroll
taxes
and
then
corporate
taxes,
corporate
taxes
about
nine
percent
of
total
revenues
last
year.
But
when
we
think
about
revenues,
we
also
have
customs
duties.
We
also
have
remittances
from
the
federal
reserve.
We
have
fines
and
various
penalties
that
come
in
as
well.
As
you
know,
every
excise
tax,
whether
it's
a
large
excise
tax
like
the
excise
tax
on
gasoline
or
whether
it's
the
excise
tax
on
bows
and
arrows,
we're
creating
a
revenue
forecast
for
for
each
and
every
one
of
those
sources.
A
Each
one
of
those
forecasts,
with
a
notable
exception
I'll
get
to
a
moment,
is
again
assuming
current
law,
and
so
whatever
law
says,
those
rates
will
be
in
the
future
are
continued,
with
the
exception
of
excise
taxes
dedicated
to
trust
funds.
So
when
you
hear
that
think
of
the
highway
trust
fund,
it
could
very
well
be
that
the
excise
tax
for
for
gasoline
expires,
but
for
our
baseline
purposes.
A
We
assume
that
that
continues
beyond
its
expiration
date
at
the
rate
in
place
when
expires,
and
so
that's
for
trying
to
provide
sort
of
predictable
revenues
for
those
trust
funds,
given
those
are
on
a
the
spending
process.
So
it
dictates
the
the
renewal
schedule
for
that.
So
that
is
the
one
exception
to
our
current
law
projection
rule
and
again
each
one
of
these
revenue
forecasts
are
tied
into
our
economic
forecast,
but
the
methods
we
use
for
each
revenue
source
vary
quite
significantly.
A
I
think
that
what
will
be
interesting
to
talk
about
we
have
sort
of
adopted,
somewhat
different
methodologies
for
the
individual
income
tax
and
and
the
corporate
tax
on
part,
noting
the
differences
in
sort
of
those
taxes
and
the
data
that
that
is
available
to
us
but
again,
clearly
we're
doing
a
lot
of
different
revenue
sources,
but,
I
think
safe
to
say,
individual
corporate
receive
the
bulk
of
our
attention
in
part,
because
they've
received
the
bulk
of
the
attention
from
the
congress,
and
so
those
are
the
things
we
we
focus
on
the
most.
A
So
one
question,
I
think,
is
particularly
timely
and
often
comes
up
as
well.
What
happens
when
the
law
changes
and
so
like?
We
are
given
a
current
law
forecast,
but
we
will
update
it
for
legislation
once
it's
enacted
and
so
for
largely
historical
reasons,
and
if
people
are
interested,
we
can
could
ask
you
a
question
later
about
it.
But
for
historical
reasons,
estimates
of
changes
in
tax
law
are
estimated
by
the
joint
committee
on
taxation
when
we
weren't
all
working
from
home.
A
We
we
work
in
and
we
work
with
them
closely
day
in
and
day
out,
but
we
do
sort
of
see
a
table
from
the
joint
committee
on
taxation
they're,
the
ones
supporting
the
the
budget
process
for
tax
changes,
but
once
it's
enacted
we're
taking
the
joint
committee
estimates
into
our
baseline
as
soon
as
it's
enacted,
and
then
we
are
sort
of
working
to
integrate
those
estimates
into
our
economic
forecasts
and
into
our
baseline,
and
so
one
thing
to
just
sort
of
note
is
that
under
precedence
and
that
we
have
here
for
the
congress
estimates
that
we
do
for
budget
enforcement
purposes
are
called
conventional
or
maybe
sometimes
called
microdynamic.
A
Some
people
might
also
call
them
static.
That's
not
an
accurate
descriptor.
Probably
microdynamic
is
the
the
best
way
to
think
about
them
in
that
those
estimates
reflect
changes
in
behavior
of
individuals
or
businesses,
a
response
to
the
legislative
changes,
but
we
hold
them
to
a
standard
where
we
assume
that
it
doesn't
alter
the
economy
as
a
whole.
That
is,
we
hold
gross
national
product
constant,
so
that
is
what's
happening
for
budget
enforcement
purposes,
but
then,
when
cbo
folds
it
into
the
baseline,
we
loosen
that
restriction
up
and
we
integrate
it
into
our
economic
assumptions.
A
And
so
a
legislative
policy
might
very
well
alter
the
economic
forecasts
and
then
we
will
reflect
those
changes
into
our
baseline
as
well.
A
Right,
I
guess
I'll
say
a
moment
more
on
on
that
point.
So
for
any
of
you
who
have
looked
at
the
bill
that
was
recently
passed,
the
house
was
being
considered
by
the
senate
shows
a
good
example
of
that.
The
joint
committee
did
an
estimate
for
a
surtax
on
people
with
income
in
excess
of
5
million
and
a
higher
sur
tax
for
income
above
20
million.
And
if
you
look
at
the
pattern
there
there's
an
enormous
or
a
significant
surge,
a
large
surge
in
receipts
that
comes
in
in
the
current
fiscal
year.
A
That's
reflecting
the
fact
that
we
estimate
that
people,
knowing
that's
coming
is
not
effective
to
january
may,
move
income
or
recognition
of
income
into
calendar
year
2021.,
so
that
is
a
response
to
the
tax
change
that
we've
reflected
in
that
estimate.
There
may
also
be
changes
from
that
policy
that
alter
the
economy
as
a
whole.
Those
will
be
considered
later,
so
it
is
certainly
not
the
case.
You
would
consider
it
a
static
estimate.
We
actually
have
notable
changes
of
behavior
in
all
these
conventional
estimates.
A
All
right,
so
I've
described
the
sort
of
at
a
very
high
level,
the
baseline.
When
you
look
at
the
baseline,
it
is
a
table.
The
baseline
is
reporting
for
each
fiscal
year.
What
the
revenues
and
spending
items
will
be
for
for
each
item.
This
sort
of
gives
you
a
sort
of
a
top
level.
Look
at
what
revenues
would
be
for
individual
tax,
individual
income,
taxes,
payroll
taxes
on
corporate
taxes
through
2031..
A
Again,
this
is
the
forecast
released
in
early
july
that
we're
currently
updating,
but
clearly,
I
think
the
devil's
in
the
details.
The
devils
are
sorry
in
the
the
details
that
underlie
each
of
these.
I
think
I
should
call
your
attention
to
the
fact
that,
on
our
website
for
both
individual
and
corporate,
we
provide
a
fair
amount
of
supplementary
information
that
helps
people
sort
of
parse
these
out,
in
other
words,
we're
providing
detail
on
our
website
for
individual
income
taxes
that
shows
the
outputs
of
our
micro
sim
model.
A
A
So
with
that,
as
an
introduction
as
to
what
cbo
is
what
why
we
create
a
baseline
and
a
little
bit
of
you
know
how
we
construct
the
baseline,
let
me
turn
it
over
to
the
people
who
actually
know
what's
going
on.
That
is
my
first,
my
colleague
kathleen
and
who
will
subsequently
pass
off
to
jennifer.
B
Hi,
I'm
kathleen.
I
work
on
the
individual
income
tax
baseline,
along
with
nearly
everyone
in
the
tax
analysis.
Division
takes
a
lot
of
people
to
put
it
together,
and
this
is
kind
of
a
general
overview
of
how
we
go
about
it.
We
start
with
the
statistics
of
income,
individual
income
tax
file,
so
this
is
a
really
great
source
because
it's
around
300
000
records,
a
sample
of
all
tax
returns
and
there's
additional
detail
on
high
income
tax
returns,
and
it
includes
everything
we
need
to
estimate
income
taxes.
B
What
it
doesn't
have
is
things
like
non-taxable
income
employer
sponsored
insurance
payments,
deferred
compensation
things
like
that.
So
in
our
projections
of
the
tax
base,
we
impute
some
of
those
non-taxable
things
and
we
also
create
projections
so
that
we
can
grow
that
file.
B
So
right
now
we're
using
the
2019
soi
file
to
prepare
the
winter
22
individual
income
tax
baseline,
and
so
we
make
imputations
of
the
non-taxable
items,
and
we
also
have
projections
of
what
will
happen
to
population
employment
income
like
unemployment,
compensation,
where
we
wouldn't
necessarily
see
it
on
the
return.
B
The
income
totals
come
from
our
macro
analysis,
division
and
that
helps
us
grow
out
things
like
wages
where
we
see
it,
but
we
don't
know
what
it
would
be
in
2030
and
then
income
distribution.
So
for
that
we
assume
everything
grows
at
mostly
the
same
rate
except
for
wages.
We
have
a
separate
projection
of
what
happens
to
wages.
There's
been
growth
in
the
top
percentile
since
the
70s,
so
we
have
a
regression
model
that
projects
that
out.
B
So
those
are
the
two
main
inputs
to
our
micro
simulation
tax
model,
which
is
basically
just
a
tax
calculator.
So
we
calculate
it
for
well.
We
pay
most
attention
to
the
10
years
out
for
the
outlook,
but
then
we
also
do
up
to
30
years
out
for
the
long-term
budget
outlook
and
we
also
have
ways
within
that
model
where
we
can
turn
on
a
different
tax
law.
B
So
we
have
a
2017
tax
act
law
in
there,
but
we
can
switch
that
on
or
off
that
gives
us
projections
of
tax
liability
which
then
go
into
our
bottle
of
receipts.
We
reconcile
what
we've
projected
for
liability
with
what
we've
seen
recently
for
individual
income
tax
payments
and
that
data
comes
from
treasury
on
withholding
estimated
payments
and
final
payments,
and
that
is
our
leads
to
our
projection
of
revenues,
which
is
this
reconciling
of
liability
and
receipts
and
then
10
years
out
for
the
outlook.
C
Thank
you
kathleen.
Okay,
let's
see,
can
I
advance
this
there
we
go
all
right
so
again,
my
name
is
jennifer
and
I
am
in
charge
of
the
corporate
income
tax
revenue
model
and
baseline
at
cbo,
and
it
is
different
as
john
and
kathleen
alluded
to
it-
sort
of
functions
differently
than
the
the
mechanisms
for
the
individual
model.
C
We
start
with
the
agency
projections
for
calendar
year,
economic
activity
that
accrue
to
the
corporate
sector
and
those
are
based
largely
on
data
from
the
bureau
of
economic
analysis,
their
national
income
and
product
accounts,
as
john
mentioned,
and
we
do
publish
a
table
that
displays
the
main
crosswalk
piece
that
bea
publishes
to
help
relate
profits,
measures
to
tax
measures,
and
so
we
have
projections
that
we
develop
for
those
items
to
then
take
the
economic
activity
or
the
corporate
profits
activity
and
then
transform
that
into
the
taxable
income
for
ferb,
subject
to
the
corporate
tax,
and
so
for
those
of
you
that
are
familiar
with
bea
data.
C
You
know
that
there
are
items
in
there
that
universe
is
larger
than
what
will
be
subject
to
the
corporate
tax,
which
only
falls
on
sub-chapter
c
corporations.
C
But
there
are
other
items
in
there
as
well
such
as
items
of
foreign
income
that
don't
necessarily
show
up
in
beas
measures,
things
known
as
subpart
f,
and
you
may
be
familiar
with
the
term
guilty
now
as
well,
and
so
we
have
to
take
those
profits
measures,
transform
them
into
items
that
are
relevant
for
the
corporate
tax,
so
adding
in
those
foreign
pieces,
for
example,
that
may
not
appear
taking
out
types
of
firms
that
would
not
be
paying
corporate
income
tax
that
are
nonetheless
accounted
for
in
the
profits
measures
and
after
we've
made
those
transformations,
we
go
through
a
similar
sort
of
reconciling
process
to
look
at
receipts
that
are
coming
through
the
door
using
monthly
treasury
statement.
C
Data
to
understand
how
the
economic
activity
that
is
flowing
down
in
a
given
year
is
actually
translating
into
fiscal
year
receipts,
and
this
can
be,
of
course,
challenging
because
of
the
timing
of
the
tax
years
for
firms,
while
most
individuals
pay
their
taxes
on
a
calendar
year
basis,
firms
can
actually
have
liability
years
that
start
and
end
at
odd
times.
That
are
not
january
and
december.
Of
course.
So
we
are
trying
to
work
over
those
timing
issues.
C
There
can
be
they're,
generally
speaking,
they're
at
least
making
estimated
payments
on
a
regular
basis
which
you
can
see
in
the
treasury
data,
and
so
we
attempt
to
infer
from
those
patterns
what
may
be
happening
in
real
time.
So,
as
kathleen
mentioned,
the
statistics
of
income
data
that
we
usually
have
is
lagged
and
so
we're
a
little
bit
looking
in
the
rear
view.
C
While
we're
trying
to
project
forward
and
understand
what
is
happening
now
and
then,
of
course,
holding
that
current
law
assumption
in
place,
trying
to
understand
what
those
receipts
would
be
moving
forward
as
we
sort
of
filter
our
economic
projections
through
our
model
to
transform
those
into
taxable
income
and
then
understanding
how
they
relate
with
receipts
for
the
10-year
period
for
the
budget
window
purposes.
But
then
we
also
are
producing
the
30-year
estimates
moving
out
as
well.
A
Sorry
to
be
able
to
find
the
unmute.
Thank
you
jennifer.
Thank
you
kathleen.
I
think
that
is
the
extent
of
our
sort
of
prepared
remarks
so
certainly
happy
to
take
any
questions.
A
A
I
guess
let
me
give
you
a
little
bit
of
an
update
for
washington
in
case
there's
some
questions
about
sort
of
where
we
are
anymore,
that
so
relatively
recently,
the
congressional
budget
off
so
significant
legislation,
that's
likely
to
have
major
economic
and
budgetary
implications
is
currently
being
considered.
We
have
estimated
the
budgetary.
A
Outcomes
from
the
house
version
of
that
legislation
the
house
passed,
it
is
now
in
the
hands
of
the
senate.
The
congressional
budget
office
is
currently
working
with
the
senate
to
sort
of
develop
their
variation
of
that
legislation.
A
That
process
is
ongoing
when
the
congress
or
when
the
senate
thinks
they
have
a
version
that
that
is
ready.
They
will
release
language
for
it,
and
we
will
release
estimates
consistent
with
that
language
and
then
the
senate
will
work
their
will
if
you've
watched
the
us
congress
at
all
like
who
knows
what
that
means
in
terms
of
how
long
it
might
take.
But
I
think
the
priority
of
the
congressional
budget
office
at
the
moment
is
to
support
the
congress
as
they
consider
this
legislation
and
and
everything
else
is
on
hold.
A
So,
as
I
alluded
to
before,
we're
working
on
our
next
forecast
when
we're
working
under
our
next
forecast
under
two,
you
know
states
of
the
world,
one
of
which
is
congress,
doesn't
enact
anything
else,
and
so
clearly
a
lot
happened
in
the
world
and
in
the
economy.
Since
our
last
forecast
that
we
created
in
you
know
last
june,
including
the
enactment
of
the
infrastructure
bill
that
was
enacted
not
so
long
ago,
and
so
we
will
fold
that
into
our
baseline
and
the
budgetary
consequences
and
economic
consequences
of
that.
A
So
potentially
we
will
release
a
baseline
that
just
reflects
that
or
we
might
then
have
a
baseline.
That
also
reflects
legislation
that
they're
currently
working
on
that
legislation
has
large
revenue
and
spending
policy
changes,
and
so
we
are
working
on
evaluating
those.
But
we've
not
yet
opined
on
how
large
the
economic
effects
of
that
legislation
would
be.
But
that
would
be
necessary
for
us
to
sort
of
release
a
new
baseline.
If
that
wasn't
acted.
A
All
right,
so
let
me
stop
the
share,
but
I'm
not
sure
it
matters,
but
at
least
lets
me
see
more
faces
or
more
screens.
I
stopped
to
share.
So
let
me
start
before
we
just
take
the
questions
in
the
chat.
Well,
do
you
can
interrupt
yeah.
D
I
think
we
got
one
of
the
questions
from
kirk
fulford.
How
have
have,
or
did
you
account
for
the
stimulus
and
other
provisions
of
arpa
and
reconciliation
act
on
projections?
If
you
have
any
kind
of
comments
to
that
question.
A
Right
so
our
our
prior
forecast,
the
one
that
we
released
in
early
july,
did
reflect
the
provisions
of
the
recovery
act
and
then
we
did
fold
those
into
our
economic
projections
and
our
revenue
projections.
And
so
you
know
those
provisions
as
well
as
other
legislation
enacted
over
the
past
two
years.
A
I
mean
most
notably,
the
cares
act
which
occurred
early
on
in
the
pandemic,
provided
very
substantial
fiscal
support
to
the
economy
and
so
had
material
impacts
on
our
baseline,
and
so
the
impact
of
our
arpa
was
included
in
our
last
baseline.
A
A
Think
some
of
those
programs
have
been
implemented
a
little
bit
differently
than
we
might
expected,
and
so
what
we're
doing
now
is
I'm
trying
to
evaluate
those
changes
and
so
on
the
tax
side,
for
example,
you
know
we
knew
when
our
was
was
passed.
There
was
supposed
to
be
payments
going
on
every
month
for
the
child
tax
credit,
but
we
weren't
quite
sure
how
they
would
go
out
how
big
they
would
be.
A
How
good
irs
would
be
at
putting
those
things
out
now
we
know
turns
out
irs,
I
think
broadly
exceeded
expectations
there,
and
so
that
has
gone
smoothly,
and
so
we
will
we'll
think
through
exactly
what
those
payments
are
and
make
updates
to
it.
The
other
things
that
have
happened.
These
really
big
cares
in
the
earlier
legislation,
but
one
thing
that
has
been
different
this
year
that
we're
sort
of
wrestling
with
or
some
of
the
fiscal
support
for
businesses
have
played
out
a
little
bit
differently
than
we
might
have
expected.
A
Tax
credits
for
employee
retention
and
leave
have
less
take
up
than
we
anticipated
and
we
had
alluded
to
that
before
and
it
marked
them
down,
but
I
think
the
retention
credit
is
sort
of
now
repealed
and
so
we're
taking
on
board
on
those
effects,
and
so
it
is
certainly
the
case
that
you
know
there's
a
lot
of
fiscal
support,
but
the
economy
has
sort
of
performed.
A
Probably
a
little
has
performed
somewhat
better
than
what
our
economic
projections
were,
and
so
we'll
revisit
that,
and
given
that
a
lot
of
that
support
was
sort
of
the
form
of
like
automatic
stabilizers
like,
for
example,
as
the
economy
performs
better,
maybe
there's
less
ui
than
there
would
otherwise
be,
and
so
we're
sort
of
re-updating
and
making
sure
we're
on
a
consistent
basis
between
our
economic
forecast
and
our
spending
and
revenue
forecast.
D
A
Sure,
I
guess
I
guess
the
first
statement
is
we
don't
forecast
capital
gains
as
well
as
we'd
like
to
it's
like
inherently
a
extraordinarily
challenging
forecast
for
us
to
to
work
on,
and
the
methodology
behind
that
forecast
is
my
best
thought
in
in
two
parts.
The
near-term
forecasting
model
is
driven
by
projections
of
the
economy
that
relate
to
financial
market
performance,
and
so
notably,
it's
very
it's
relatively
sensitive
to
our
investment
forecast.
A
You
know,
as
we
have
strong,
underlying
investment
we
found
historically,
that's
related
to
strong
performance
in
the
capital
markets
and
things
that
create
capital
gains
in
the
near
term.
We
also
rely
on
you
know
an
underlying
forecast
of
financial
markets
explicitly,
and
so
that
shapes
our
our
near-term
capital
gains,
forecast
thinking
largely
over
the
next
two
years
or
so.
A
Then
we
transition
to
a
forecast
that
is
largely
driven
by
the
historical
pattern
of
capital
gains
income
to
the
size
of
the
economy,
and
so,
if
we
have
a
period
right
now
where
capital
gains
relative
to
the
size
of
the
economy
is
larger
than
it
has
been
historically
in
the
longer
run,
we'll
temper
that
down,
we
adjust
that
relationship
for
what
the
tax
rate
is
on
capital
gains.
A
And
so,
as
you
increase
the
tax
rate
on
capital
gains,
you
get
less
underlying
capital
gains
realizations,
although
you're
getting
more
revenue
from
it,
and
so
we
we
adjust
for
that
relationship
again
if
we
were
doing
a
current
law
forecast
and
given
recent
changes
to
tax
legislation
all
disappear
after
2025,
that's
not
really
driving
our
long
run
forecast,
but
so
I
think
those
are
the
the
primary
the
primary
drivers
of
that
forecast
and-
and
but
I'll
have
to
you
know
admit
it
is
both
challenging
because
we
don't
get
sort
of
pure
real-time
information
on
what
capital
gains
realizations.
A
Are
we
get
processing
data
as
occurs,
but
there's
a
little
bit
of
a
lag
on
that
and
then
clearly
the
historical
relationship
between
the
economy
and
capital
gains
is
always
a
little
loose,
but
I
don't
think
we've
really
seen
financial
markets
perform
as
well
for
a
recession
as
they
did
through
the
last
recession
we
had,
and
so
that's
been
a
bit
of
a
challenge
for
us
to
grapple
with
over
the
past
year.
D
C
Sure
happy
too,
so,
of
course,
we've
all
been
seeing
the
numbers
as
the
treasury
reports
them,
and
I
will
be
the
first
to
admit
that
you
know
it's
an
exciting
adventure
when,
when
we're
thinking
that
things
were
really
bad,
you
know
if
we
look
back
a
year
ago
and
all
the
uncertainty
that
we
had
and
then
clearly
the
numbers
that
come
in
are
much
stronger,
which
suggests
that
there's
a
lot
of
corporations
with
tax
liability
that
we
perhaps
didn't
expect
would
have
it,
and-
and
I
think
that
it
certainly
seems
that
there
are
some
sectors
that
are
doing
much
better
than
others.
C
So
we
suspect
that
that
the
you
know
historical
average
of
the
breakdown
of
of
you
know,
who's
doing
well
and
who's.
Not
doing
so
well
is
different.
This
time
around,
and
certainly
we've
seen
a
lot
of
news
on
different
sectors
that
have
gotten
hit
harder
than
others.
C
If
you're
in,
like
you
know
e-commerce,
you're,
you're,
probably
doing
okay
versus
if
you're
in
hospitality
and
tourism
over
the
last
year,
so
one
of
the
the
pieces
that
must
that
we
think
is
happening
is
that
maybe
the
profits
forecast
is
masking
some
of
those
differences
for
one
thing
and
because
expectations
can
also
influence
the
timing
of
payments.
We
think
that
it's
it's
also
possible
that
that
there
are
some
temporary
timing
pieces
that
are
involved
as
firms
figure
out
that
things
aren't
so
bad
over
the
past
year.
C
So
so
we
suspect
that,
yes,
there
are
definitely
certain
sectors
that
are
doing
very
well,
which
could
be
masking
in
the
aggregate
places
places
within
the
economy
within
the
corporate
sector
that
aren't
doing
nearly
as
well,
and
it
could
be
that
that
recognition
of
doing
so
well
has
evolved
over
time
which
has
affected
sort
of
the
timing
of
payments
as
they
are
making
their
estimated
payments
and
assessing
how
they're
doing
so
that
that's
creating
a
bit
of
a
disconnect
relative
to
historical
patterns
that
we've
seen
and
how
those
aggregates
tend
to
move.
C
So
I
don't
know
if
you
would
like
to
add
something
else
to
that.
John.
A
Yeah,
I
think
you
hit
the
yeah
we're
struggling
to
interpret
source
right
open
to
any
suggestions
or
ideas
or
other
theories
that
people
have,
but
certainly
knowing
that
the
federal
tax
base
from
corporate
is
extraordinarily
concentrated.
A
If
we
do
have
to
sort
of
break
down
the
historical
relationships
of
the
probability,
a
given
firm
would
be
a
loss
because
of
the
particular
nature
of
the
economy.
Revenues
are
very
sensitive
to
that,
so
that
could
be
a
there's
likely
a
big
part
of
the
story,
but
we're
we're
still
grappling
with
that.
A
story
that
we
sort
of
liked
a
little
while
ago,
but
we're
struggling
whether
it's
still
relevant.
A
What
we
were
hearing
from
some
tax
directors
and
and
from
some
corporate
management
and
some
firms
was
that
effectively
a
21
corporate
rate
was
too
good
to
be
true
and,
as
a
result,
anything
that's
too
good
to
be
true,
win
last,
and
if
you
believe
that,
and
certainly
probably
when
the
administration
was
elected,
you
might
believe
that
you
know
things
might
change
sooner
rather
than
later.
A
You
know
it
might
be
a
good
time
to
to
recognize
income
in
a
bad
time
to
recognize
deductions,
so
that
could
also
alter
why
we
might
see
strength
now
clearly,
as
legislation
evolves,
that
storyline
perhaps
isn't
quite
as
strong
as
it
was
a
couple
months
ago,
but
that's
another
issue
that
there
seemed
to
be
some
rumblings
among
taxpayers.
That
could
be
explaining
sort
of
why
the
the
strength
in
in
payment
seem
to
be
somewhat
disconnected
between
from
what
ba's
reporting
as
the
level
of
underlying
profits
of
the
economy.
D
A
Yeah,
that's
a
great
question,
so
that's
for
I'm
not
sure
how
familiar
people
are
with
all
the
alphabet
soup
of
various
folks
in
washington.
So
let
me
give
a
brief
overview.
If
you
sort
of
think
about
the
executive
branch,
you
largely
in
terms
of
budgetary
is
happening
throughout
the
executive
branch,
but
you
think
of
omb
pulling
everything
together
and
so
in
some
ways
is
the
person
pulling
together
the
budget
forecast
as
well
as
a
function
very
much
like
cbo.
A
That
said,
the
sort
of
everything
related
to
revenue
in
that
forecast
is
coming
from
treasury.
That's
my
introduction
alluded
to
that's
where
I
spent
the
bulk
of
my
career
with
over
at
treasury,
and
so
we
have
a
very
close
cooperative
relationship
with
our
colleagues
at
both
omd
and
treasury,
since
we're
doing
sort
of
parallel
tasks
for
different
clients
about
you
know:
parsing
incoming
data
thinking
about
best
practices
and
projecting
forward,
and
so
there's
an
informal
but
very
cooperative
relationship
there.
A
But
that
said,
we
do
have
different
clients,
and
so,
at
least
in
the
public
realm
that
that
means
our
products
are
presented
differently
and
have
some
some
differences
there.
But
the
thing
I
think
alluded
to
in
the
forecast
of
one
thing,
that's
important
when
you're
trying
to
compare
something
the
administration
might
say
with
something
that
cbo
or
joint
committee
might
say,
is
this
underlying
construct
of
all
our
budgetary
work?
The
work
for
the
executive
branch
is
all
premised
to
describe
the
president's
budget.
A
There
are
these
just
conceptual
differences
because
of
sort
of
you
know
where
we're
drilled
into
it,
cbo's
always
current
law.
What
do
we
know
if
congress
doesn't
do
anything
and
they're
viewing
everything
through
a
lens
of
what
are
what
is
this
administration
trying
to
accomplish,
and
that
has
implications
for
regulatory
policy
and
a
whole
host
of
things
so
again,
very
cooperative,
but
it's
important
for
outsiders,
or
sometimes
not
aware
of
that
intellectual
difference
and
what
you
know,
what
we're
trying
to
do
with
our
work
within
the
legislative
branch.
A
Again,
there
are
a
bunch
of
groups
that
support
the
congress.
You
have
the
congressional
budget
office,
which
is
doing
baselines
for
everything
and
cost
estimates
for
spending
programs
and
then
other
revenue,
things
that
aren't
taxed.
The
joint
committee
on
taxation
is
exclusively
sort
of
providing
support
to
the
two
tax
writing
committees
and
providing
estimates
of
revenue,
changes
from
tax
legislation
and
again
we
work
very
cooperatively
with
them
such
a
on
any
large
bill.
Like
the
reconciliation
bill.
You
know
some
provisions
are
asked
by
joint
committee.
A
Some
are
cbo
and
then
we
fold
them
all
into
a
single
table
and,
for
example,
we're
often
really
worried
to
make
sure
we're
consistent
with
well.
If
you've
got
a
bunch
of
revenue,
changes
the
sort
of
altering
things
and
then
you've
got
like,
for
example,
some
immigration
policy
that
is
like
changing
the
population
of
the
u.s.
You
want
to
make
sure
you
have
the
interactions
between
those
policies
sorted
out.
So
there's
a
lot
of
you
know,
that's
a
that's
a
big
issue
one,
but
you
also
have
you
know
well
and
here.
A
Another
good
example
is
like
unemployment
insurance,
that's
a
spending
program,
but
unless
congress
does
something
you
know,
a
ui
is
taxable
at
the
federal
level,
and
so
we
need
to
make
sure
that
we're
talking
back
and
forth,
we
have
an
understanding
of
when
cbo
says
unemployment.
Insurance
is
going
to
be
larger
because
of
a
policy
change.
What
does
that
mean
for
the
following
revenue?
Consequences
would
be
there
and
then
you've
got
an
agency
like
the
congressional
research
service.
A
A
The
jct
is
working
for
the
tax
committee.
So
again,
a
committee
focused
activity.
The
congressional
research
service
is
really
working
for
individual
members,
and
so
part
of
it
is
just
if
you're,
an
individual
member.
You
know
the
way
you
get.
Your
question
answered
is
to
go
to
the
congressional
research
service
you're,
probably
not
going
to
get
immediate
assistance
if
you
go
talk
to
cbo
or
joint
committee.
A
Meanwhile,
if
you're
the
chairman
or
a
ranking
member
of
a
committee
you're
making
a
request
on
behalf
of
the
committee,
those
jump
to
the
top
of
the
queue
for
cbo
and
joint
committee,
and
so
part
of
it
is
just
like
you
know,
different
customer
service
depending
on
who
the
customers
are,
but
it
does
then
filter
down
of,
like
you
know,
typically
when
we
are
providing
something
to
a
committee,
it's
because
there's
committee
action
on
something,
and
so
if
an
individual
member
has
a
question,
it's
often
earlier
in
the
process
like
they're
trying
to
figure
out
what
legislation
might
do
or
trying
to
understand
something
that
happened,
and
so
crs
is
sort
of
giving
a
little
bit
more
of
a
personal
service
there
in
part,
because
often
it
is
often
a
narrower
question.
A
That's
getting
addressed,
but
then
often
you
know
when
those
questions
accumulate
up
from
the
congressional
research
service.
Often
it
gets
passed
off
to
us
if
we
think
it's
a
broad
interest
to
the
congress
as
a
whole,
and
crs
is
really
good
at
connecting
people
like
we
do
seminars
for
crs
regularly
for
congressional
staff
in
part
to
both
help
congressional
staff
understand
how
to
get
their
questions
answered,
but
also
because
we
we
do.
We
focus
on
different
things.
A
D
C
C
Essentially
what
we
are
attempting
to
do
is
start
from
bea's
framework
there,
where
they
are
using
irs
data
on
total
receipts
list
total
deductions,
and
they
want
to
make
adjustments
for
elements
that
affect
tax
income,
but
the
way
that
the
the
accounting
rules
affect
how
those
things
get
counted
for
taxable.
C
Income
affect
them
differently
in
terms
of
how
bea
is
creating
a
profits
measure
based
on
current
activity,
and
so
they
have
several
different
elements
that
get
different
tax
treatment
under
those
accounting
rules
versus
how
they
would
be
counted
in
the
national
income
and
product
accounts.
And
so
because
we
are
attempting
to
start
from
underlying
economics
and
then
move
more
towards
the
tax
measures.
We
are
taking
elements
that
from
their
table
and
attempting
to
project
those
forward
to
then
develop
these
measures
of
net
income
and
then
from
there.
C
And
then,
from
that
point
we
have
sort
of
an
idea
of
how
to
then
characterize
net
income
that
would
be
accounted
for
by
all
of
those
profits
within
the
corporate
sector.
So
hopefully
that
provides
a
little
bit
of
a
background
as
to
how
we
do
it.
We
really
rely
a
lot
on
on
the
information
that
bea
sort
of
already
has
developed
for
their
process
of
projecting
their
nipa
accounts.
D
Yeah,
thank
you
for
that
kind
of
a
common
question
along
states
that
have
broad
sales
taxes
is
about
sales
tax
revenue,
accelerating
in
terms
of
never
before
seen
kind
of
as
a
result
of
covid.
Recognizing
that
you
guys
the
federal
government
doesn't
have
a
sales
tax,
so
you
wouldn't
have
a
direct
projected
of
that
revenue
site
source
is.
There
is
a
large
increase
in
consumer
purchases
consistent
with
kind
of
some
of
your
other
economic
baselines,
or
is
that
something?
You
can
also
kind
of
comment
on.
A
Yeah
so
you're
right,
we
don't.
We
don't
have
to
formally
opine
on
this
question,
but
it
is
something
that
we
have
recognized
that
or
we've
observed
in
looking
at
sort
of
you
know
when
we,
when
we
do
our
economic
forecast,
we
are
concerned
about
the
fiscal
position
of
the
state,
so
we
are
paying
attention
to
this
and
we've
noticed
it.
A
I
won't
say:
we've
come
to
full
grips
with
it,
but
it
certainly
is
consistent
with
some
of
our
forecasts
of
personal
consumption,
which
is
higher
and
we've
spent
a
fair
amount
of
time,
largely
because,
in
our
economic
forecast,
we're
really
trying
to
come
to
grips
with
the
inflation
forecasts
and
what's
driving
it
and
so
lara.
A
A
lot
of
the
story
behind
there
is
trying
to
think
about
consumption
of
goods
versus
services
and
clearly,
when
we
look
at
that,
we
spend
a
lot
of
time
parking
that
out
that
you
know,
purchases
of
goods
is
way
up,
and
so
our
forecast
is
reflecting
that
and
a
lot
of
that
is
coming
out
of
services,
but
not
all
of
it.
Some
of
that
we
are
interpreting
intentionally
as
timing
and
part
of
you
know,
it
is
harder
to
consume
some
services
than
the
you
know:
entertainment
recreation.
A
You
know
some
of
those
things
right
now,
and
so
it's
just
a
shifting,
but
also
just
I
think,
almost
way.
A
Food
is
entertainment
value
if
you,
if
you
have
a
flush
bank,
account
you're
choosing
to
spend
it,
and
we
certainly
sort
of
see
that
in
inventories
and
and
other
things,
and
so
we
think
that
that
is
a
notable
change
in
the
economy
is
the
increased
purchase
of
goods,
but
I
think
we're
viewing
that
as
a
symptom
of
cova
but
related
to
the
pandemic,
and
so,
as
a
result
will
not
just
unwind,
but
you
might
expect
it
to
dip
a
little
bit
before
you
get
to
something
more
normal,
but
admittedly
we
are
still
struggling
exactly
with
what
that
timing
looks
like
and
what
you
see,
but
I
think
that's
our
our
current
take
on
on
that
another
piece
and
to
that-
and
I
think
jennifer
jennifer
and
kathleen
are
so
struggling
with
this-
is
that
you
know,
even
though
we
don't
have
a
sales
tax
driven
type
of
thing,
you
know
it's
also
the
case
that,
like
income,
taxes
are
just
coming
in
hand
over
fist
for
both
individual
corporate
right
now,
in
a
way
that
seems
somewhat
inconsistent
with
the
reporting
out
of
ba,
and
so
we're
sort
of
grappling
with
that,
and
we
always
benchmark
to
the
reports
of
where
the
gdp
is
and
where
ge
gdi
is,
but
certainly
it
would
explain
a
lot
if
those
things
were
revised
up
and
we
certainly
recognize
the
challenges,
particularly
for
any
reporting
that
relies
on
surveys
that
it's
hard
to
get
hard
data
right
now,
and
so
you
know
we
are
very
much
wrestling
with
you
know.
A
Is
it
the
case
that
the
economy
has
been
running
hotter
this
year
than
than
people
have
appreciated?
Certainly
that
would
help
to
explain
revenues,
but
it
also
might
income
tax
strategies,
but
it
might
also
help
explain
sales
tax
revenues
as
well.
D
A
Yeah,
so
I
think
correct
me,
but
the
typical
schedule
is
that
we
would
get
the
forecast
for
us.
You
know
essentially,
two
years
prior
in
the
late
summer,
so
normally
we
would
get.
You
know
the
we
would
have
gotten
the
tax
records
for
2019
from
irs.
So
this
is
the
cleaned
up
edited
file
in
late
august.
It
was
about
two
months
late
this
year,
largely
just
because
of
government.
A
You
know
the
irs
folks
not
sitting
at
their
desks
that
took
them
longer
to
process
things,
but
typically
that
lag
is
we're
getting
two
years
prior.
When
we
do
our
do
our
forecast.
A
One
thing
to
sort
of
note
is
a
caveat
that
we're
wrestling
with
if
you
know-
and
this
even
probably
affected
last
year's
file
as
well,
even
though
it
was
clear,
pre-pandemic
file,
delays
and
irs
processing
things
and
just
fewer
people
in
the
service
center
sort
of
cleaning
that
data
for
us
probably
has
had
an
impact
on
the
quality
of
data
that
we're
receiving
as
both
so
delaying
files
as
well.
A
As
you
know,
they
only
can
process
what
they
have
and
if
there's
like
trailer
fulls
of
mail
that
they're
still
trying
to
go
through,
you
just
don't
know
whether
there's
you
know
returns
sitting
in
there
that
they've
not
yet
processed,
and
so
you
know
we,
we
use
the
data
that
we
can,
but
we
are
a
little
concerned
to
take
the
most
recent
data
we
have-
and
this
will
probably
be
true
for
another
year
or
two
and
treating
his
gospel.
Given
all
the
challenges
that
irs
has
had
in
the
pandemic,.
D
Yes,
we've
got,
I
think,
two
remaining
questions
before
we
kind
of
wrap
up.
One,
I
think,
is
a
super
common
question.
I
think
you
guys
even
cbo
had
released
some
information
about
how,
generally
you
would
review
inflationary
adjustments
or
look
at
thoughts
to
share
on
inflation
effects
on
your
revenue
outlook.
As
that
you
know,
I
think,
has
kind
of
become
a
heightened
consideration
versus,
I
would
say,
like
traditional
forecasting,.
A
Yeah
so
inflation's
super
important,
particularly
for
the
individual
income
tax,
because
you
know
it.
You
know
that
that
tax
system
is
partially
not
fully
but
partially
adjusted
for
inflation
and-
and
now
you
know,
beginning
of
2018
was
adjusted
by
the
chain
cpi
rather
than
the
other
cpi.
And
so
our
our
colleagues
in
the
macro
forecasting
worry
about
lots
of
different
measures
of
inflation,
a
lot
of
pces.
They
try
to
think
about
what
the
fed
will
do.
A
They
think
about
cpi
adjustments
when
they
think
about
spending
programs
and
chain
cpi
for
tax
changes,
and
so
they
worry
a
lot
about
those
things.
Although
we
are
a
little
we're,
not
struggling,
but
we
are
sort
of
thinking
about
how
those
different
measures
may
respond
differently,
given
that
we
have
a
very
abnormal
level
or
it's
not
in
the
long
run
of
history,
not
abnormal,
but
over
the
past
couple
decades,
a
much
higher
level
of
inflation
and
what
will
those
timing
effects
be
under
these
different
measures
of
inflation?
A
But
it
does
have
a
notable
impact
on
our
on
our
forecast.
Clearly
or
inflation
is
run
higher
than
our
last
forecast.
So
you
probably
would
be
reasonable
to
expect
that
our
next
forecast
will
have
higher
levels
of
inflation
and,
as
our
result,
I
expect
that
when
we
release
that
forecast,
we'll
spend
a
fair
amount
of
time
talking
about
both
the
drivers
of
that
and
then
also
our
forward-looking.
A
What
we're
expecting
to
happen
across
these
different
measures,
because
it
does
have
budgetary
consequences
so
somewhat
of
an
invasive
answer.
But
I
think
it's
probably
yeah.
D
Yeah
really
helpful
thanks
for
that
and
kind
of.
Lastly,
does
your
forecast
for
the
next
few
years
take
into
account
how
the
possible
cause
of
the
current
strong
tax
payment
behavior,
you
discuss
things
like
tax
increases
anticipation,
high
stock
market
may
lead
to
corresponding
reduction
of
income
tax
collections
in
the
next
few
years,
like
basically
accelerated
income?
Do
you
include
the
sort
of
potential
reduction
in
a
forecast
based
upon
being
above
trend
and
some
out
years,
or
how
do
you
deal
with
timing
differentials?
D
A
Yes
certainly
gets
tricky,
so
all
of
our
models
are
set
up
to
have
an
underlying
model
that
is
predicting
revenues
based
on
you
know
the
economic
forecast
and
and
sort
of
the
the
jump
year,
which
is
often
lagged
a
little
bit,
and
then
you
know
in
times
like
this,
as
revenues
run
strong.
That
means
that
we
have
more
dollars
coming
in
the
door
than
our
models
can
explain
and
typically
that
wedge
you
know
we
have
to
apply
some
judgment
there,
but
in
general
we're
taking
that
wedge
away.
A
It
may
be
slowly
over
the
next
couple
years,
but
for
the
most
part
we
are.
You
know
that
you
know
peace,
that
we
don't
understand.
We
typically
assume
is
most
likely
to
be
temporary
and
we
phase
it
away,
and
so
hopefully
that
results
in
a
sense
of
our
longer
run.
Forecasts
are
not
particularly
sensitive
to
you
know
the
the
twists
and
turns
of
near-term
receipts.
A
So
I
think
that's
the
general
methodology
that
we
apply.
I
I
will
freely
admit
it
is
going
to
be
particularly
challenging
as
we
walk
through
the
the
next
couple
years.
You
know
right
now,
we're
so
largely
benchmarking.
A
What
you
think
would
have
been
a
typical
2020
or
a
typical
2021
or
typical
2022
as
we're
going
here,
and
make
sure
that
we
don't
carry
things
that
we
don't
think
should
be
carried
forward,
but
but
we
and
we
often
sort
of
try
to
try
to
make
clear
to
the
reader
in
our
reports
of
how
big
is
that
unexplained
piece,
so
you
can
think
about
how
to
take
it
away,
and
you
know
most
of
our
underlying.
A
I
think
the
supplemental
data
we
described
is
model
output,
so
it
doesn't
have
those
effects,
and
so
you
can
some.
You
will
likely
see
if
you
looked
at
this
next
year.
There,
you
know,
is
an
unexplained
wedge
between
what
those
models
are
kicking
out
and
what
our
baseline
is
so
largely.
It
is
that
unexplained
piece
that
will
temper
how
long
we
let
it
run
for
largely
depends
on
how
big
it
is
and
the
state
of
the
economy.
But
that
is
exactly
a
question.
We're
struggling
with
right
now.
D
Yeah,
we
appreciate
all
the
information
you
guys
have
shared
today.
So
much
in
your
time,
I
would
say
the
information
you
guys
provide
too
as
part
of
cbo's
processes.
The
additional
information
about
the
outlook
is
also
really
helpful,
so
looking
forward,
as
you
guys,
release
those
updated
forecasts
into
kind
of
what
those
pieces
comment
on.
So
we
appreciate
your
time
and
all
of
the
information
you
shared
today.
A
Happy
too
great
to
virtually
meet
all
of
you
and
and
please
let
this
be
a
two-way
street.
I
mean.
Certainly
you
know
any
insights
that
you
all
can
provide
any
questions
you
have
what
you're
seeing
is
useful
to
us.
I
mean
it,
it
is
certainly
you
know
what
we're
projecting
is.
D
A
It
should
be
posted
on
our
website,
so
that's
there.
We've
alluded
to
a
bunch
of
other
things:
supplemental
data
things
if
you
can't
find
it
on
our
website.
Please
just
drop
me
an
email
and
we'll
point
you
to
the
right
place.
We
try
to
make
our
website
easy
to
navigate,
but
I
recognize
it.
The
search
function
is
less
than
perfect,
so
it's
probably
faster
just
ask
us
where
it
is
and
we'll
said,
yelling.
D
Yeah,
thank
you
at
this
point.
I
think
we're
gonna,
let
the
folks
from
cbo
go.
We
do
have
a
little
bit
of
time
left
if,
if
these
guys
want
to
hop
off,
if,
if
some
of
the
folks
remaining
that
are
on
want
to
have
any
conversations
about
revenue
estimating
in
the
states,
I'm
happy
to
give
people
back
time
today,
if
there's
not
an
interest
but
also
happy
to
kind
of
field
questions,
if
there's
folks
that
want
to
kind
of
spend,
I
think
we
have
some
remaining
minutes.
D
If
there's
any
specific
questions
about
revenue
forecasting,
I
don't
know
if
erica,
if
you
had
any
yeah,
I
mean
I
think
we
just
wanted.
E
To
provide
kind
of
some
free
time
for
you
all
to
be
there
kind
of
reflect
on
what
you
heard
or
ask
questions
of
each
other
about
what
you're
seeing
you
know,
peer-to-peer
state
state
or
if
they
you
are
dealing
with
other
issues
that
you
haven't
had
a
chance
to
discuss.
Yet
we
haven't
kind
of
had
one
of
these
meetings
in
a
while,
so
just
wanted
to
tag
on
a
little
time.
In
case
you
guys
wanted
to
kind
of
have
any
discussions.
D
Yeah
also
as
follow-up,
if,
if
there's
specific
things
that
you
want
us
to
help
navigate
from
what
cbo
said
about
specific
data
points,
you
know
shoot
those
to
me
or
erica
and
we
can
try
to
coordinate
first
from
some
of
the
folks
back
to
make
sure
you
get
information.
D
E
D
Yeah
so
trying
to
put
a
corridor
around
on
recurring
revenues.
I
think
it's
something
that
we're
trying
to
specifically
make
calls
on
it's
just
a
kind
of
recurring.
You
know
kind
of
baseline
adjustment,
or
is
this
kind
of
a
kind
of
a
corridor
bubble?
That's
moving
through
our
tax
collections
and
trying
to
make
discernment,
and
then
it's
interesting
to
hear
cbo
talk
about
being
able
to
look
back
at
how
good
their
forecast
was.
You
know
we
have
some
of
that
too,
in
in
georgia.
D
That
tries
to
look
at
you
know
were
the
things
that
we
caught
our
fort
orders.
One
time
are
they
showing
up
again
still,
and
so
is
it
like
a
longer
one
time
than
we
predicted
or
is
it?
You
know
now
becoming
part
of
the
reoccurring,
behavior.
E
It
doesn't
doesn't
the
stimulus
kind
of
drop
out
automatically
from
transfer
payments
as
part
of
personal
income.
I'm
from
maryland.
We
tend
to
rely
a
lot
on
total
personal
income
that
bea
data,
which
captures
the
seamless
checks
and
the
ui
benefits,
and
even
some
ppp
stuff,
and
it
disappears
in
the
forecast,
transfer
payment.
So,
at
least
in
terms
of
you
know,
the
direct
impact
stay
on
the
sales
tax
it
kind
of
drops
out
just
because
it
drops
out
of
transfer
payments.
E
I
don't
know
if
other
people
are
maybe
we're
not
thinking
about
it
deeply
enough,
but
that
was
at
least
that's
my
kind
of
surface
yeah.
This
is
gabe
in
california,
we're
not
really
either,
and
I
think
maybe
it
kind
of
responds
to
the
question
kirk
put
in
we're
not
necessarily
trying
to
unwrap
that
component.
You
know
the
component,
that's
reflecting
the
effect
of
stimulus,
but
it
actually,
we
are
doing
more
work
on.
E
But
I
will
say
the
other
question
about
unreal:
I'm
not
unwrapping,
but
this
non-recurring
idea
and
cbo's
mentioning
well.
We
have
a
wedge
between
what
our
modic
final
predicted,
what
we're
actually
getting,
and
we
don't
let
that
wedge
continue.
We
literally
had
this
conversation
yesterday
about
whether
or
not
we
should
be
backing
off
of
the
income
tax
say
because
you
know
other
otherwise,
you
just
really
build
on
the
most
recent
year.
I
mean
that's
kind
of
how
our
modeling
works,
whatever
the
most
recent
actually
is.
E
E
E
E
My
explanation,
for
why
is,
we've
had
over
eight
billion
dollars
in
stimulus
payments
received
by
individuals
in
alabama
over
the
last
year
and
our
sales
taxes
and
that's
not
even
counting
the
earned
income
or
the
child
tax
credit
money,
that's
flowed
in,
and
our
sales
tax
growth
was
almost
15,
which
was
the
highest
yearly
growth
rate
that
we've
ever
had
in
our
sales
tax
line,
and
that
includes
years
where
we
increase
the
rate.
So
I've
got
substance
there
to
be
able
to
to.
E
You
know
defend
my
claim,
but
as
far
as
revenue
projections
it's
bad
to
to
have
revenue
projections.
Obviously
we
unwrap
when
we
project
what
we
assume
that
impact
would
be
before
we
move
forward.
But
it's
going
to
wind
up
producing
income
tax
projections
that
are
going
to
be
less
than
what
we
actually
received
in
the
current
year
and
that's
hard
to
explain
to
a
member.
That's
looking
at
trying
to
spend
nine
billion
dollars
when
you're
telling
them
they
can
only
spend
8.3.
D
Yeah,
that's
really
helpful.
I
think
you
also
asked.
Are
we
looking
to
kirk
at
the
sales
tax
growth?
E
I
would
say
that
in
we've
had
some
success.
He
he
talked
about
the
guy
from
cbo,
about
services
versus
goods
and-
and
I
actually
had
some
success
with
the
sales
tax
model
that
factored
that
in
basically,
including
a
variable
that
was
the
pc
the
services
share
of
pce,
which
that
data
is
available
now
by
s
by
state.
So
there's
not
a
lot
of
history,
but
there
is
some
history
and
that
actually
was
quite
explanatory,
as
well
as
the
us
savings
rate
and
as
that
unwinds,
I
would.
E
E
Even
if
income
growth
continues
at
some
level,
so
never
used
to
include
that
kind
of
stuff
in
the
sales
tax
model
before
this
period.
But
I
did
have
found
that
it's
pretty
it's.
It
helps
explain.
What's
happened
last
year
way
more
than
the
basics
of
employment
and
income
as
far
as
as
far
as
I've
been
able
to
tell.
D
I
think
cbo
talked
about
it,
some
of
the
really
kind
of
seemingly
not
super
clear
forecasting
environment
that
we're
kind
of
working
in
given
all
of
the
changes
kind
of,
maybe
in
your
state,
and
also
a
lot
of
impacts
all
across
the
economic
baseline,
so
happy
to
kind
of
field
additional
questions,
and
if
there's
things
that
you
guys
want
us
to
pass
on
and
try
to
field
to
kind
of
john
happy
to
also
do
that,
is
there
any
other
wrap
up
kind
of
erica
that
you
had?
E
On
them,
but
if
there
are
specific
things
you
think
would
be
helpful
to
have
sessions
on
or
have
discussions
about,
please
feel
free
to.
Let
me
know
we're
always
happy
to
to
help
facilitate
conversations
and
help
get
research
answers.
So
thank
you
all
for
participating,
really
appreciate
it
and
hope
everyone
has
great
holidays.