►
Description
Warren Washington, NCAR
2007 Nobel Prize as a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
"The Brief History and Future Development of Earth System Models: Resolution and Complexity"
A
A
We
have
dr
washington
here
and
I
guess
as
soon
as
I
became
nurse
director,
one
of
the
first
emails
I've
gotten
was
from
dr
washington
saying.
Oh,
please
come
out
to
encar.
I
think
he
wanted
to
make
sure
that
I
wasn't
planning
to
do
anything
crazy,
and
so
I'm
hoping
that
I
reassured
him
that
nothing,
nothing
odd
was
going
to
happen
too
odd,
at
least,
and
so
anyway,
I
had
a
great
visit
at
encart.
A
I
really
really
appreciated
that,
certainly
a
very
beautiful
location,
so
I'm
very
we're
very
pleased
that
you
came
all
the
way
out
to
give
this
lecture.
Dr
washington
is
a
very
distinguished
lecturer,
he's
a
senior
scientist
at
the
encar
in
boulder
colorado.
His
group
uses
state-of-the-art
climate
models
to
study,
present
and
future
climate
change.
A
He
has
over
150
publications
and
co-authored
with
claire
parkinson
a
book
considered
a
standard
reference
on
climate
modeling.
Dr
washington
has
many
awards,
including
being
a
member
of
the
national
academy
of
engineering
president
of
the
american
meteorological
society,
a
member
of
the
american
philosophical
society
and
a
fellow
of
the
american
art
academy
of
arts
and
sciences.
A
He
has
honorary
degrees
from
oregon
state
university,
bates
college
and
the
university
of
massachusetts
amherst
in
2010.
He
was
awarded
the
national
medal
of
science
by
president
obama,
the
nation's
highest
science
award,
in
addition
to
serving
on
many
boards
and
committees,
he's
presently
serving
as
the
chair
of
the
national
research
council's
review
committee
for
the
u.s
climate
change
research
program.
So
so,
thank
you,
dr
washington.
Let's
give
him
a
let's
welcome
man.
B
Thank
you
very
much.
It's
a
pleasure
for
me
to
to
come.
Can
you
hear
me?
Okay,
good,
I'm
going
to
try
to
summarize
a
lot
of
different
things
in
this
talk
I'll,
be
covering
quite
a
bit
a
brief
history
of
climate
modeling,
the
brief
discussion
of
computational
methods,
environmental
justice,
connected
to
environmental
change
and
climate
change,
and
then
I'll
talk
a
little
bit
about
the
history
of
how
things
look,
such
as
the
us
global
change
program
started.
B
I'm
going
to
show
two
two
recent
or
fairly
recent
nasa
satellite
videos,
which
gives
the
insight
to
how
the
climate
is
changing
and
the
and
the
interaction
of
the
vegetation
on
the
carbon
cycle.
The
reason
I
show
this
is
is
is
that
we
haven't
really
had
global
coverage
of
a
lot
of
of
the
things
that
essentially
go
into
climate
modeling,
and
I
think
that
the
satellite
observations
are
going
to
be
even
more
important
in
the
future.
B
B
B
B
So
on
the
equations
that
govern
on
the
dynamics
of
the
atmosphere,
ocean
and
to
circumstance,
vegetation
and
and
sea
ice,
I
should
have
added
even
glaciers
and
and
the
equations
have
been
known
for
some
time,
I'll
come
back
to
that.
The
physical
processes
are
that
we
include
are
precipitation
radiation,
both
solar
and
terrestrial.
B
And
the
first
person
to
articulate
the
these
equations
was
v
bjerknes
in
1904
he
was
a
norwegian
scientist
and
he
never
actually
wrote
down
the
equations.
He
just
talked
about
them
in
principle.
He
was,
he
was
more
of
a
classical
autophysicist.
He
knew
that
these
equations,
essentially
on
the
never
stokes
equations,
could
be
solved
and
they
involve
not
only
horizontal
and
vertical
space
dimensions,
but
also.
E
B
And
so
on,
the
first
attempt
at
solving
these
equations
was
by
l,
f
richardson,
a
a
a
british
scientist
who
was
a
quaker
didn't
want
to
take
part
in
world
war,
one
in
a
combative
way,
but
he
worked
for
the
red
cross
and
the
and
the
wars
and
yeah
are
the
battles
in
the
world
war.
One
were
episodic,
so
there
wasn't
much
action
and
then
there
would
be
a
fierce
action
for
a
few
hours
or
a
few
days,
and
then
it
would.
D
B
B
So
on
that
launched,
essentially
weather
forecasting
and
then
over
here
is
norman
phillips
who
took
those
same
equations
on
the
first
electronic
computer,
the
iniac
and
he
put
in
a
simple
heating
function.
Where
you
would,
you
would
heat
up
the
atmosphere
and
the
tropics
and
cool
it
and
the
in
the
in
the
polar
regions
or
in
the
polar
region,
and
he
found
he
could
generate
circulation
systems
like
what
we've
seen
our
on
our
present
day,
climate
models.
B
B
B
And
here
here
I
just
show
in
a
very
schematic
form
on
the
on
the
sort
of
processes,
and
I
won't
go
through
this
in
any
great
detail
about
in
in
the
early
days
when
we
just
wanted
to
have
the
simplest
type
models,
because
when
we
ran
on
our
earliest
computers,
which
is
the
709,
it
took
one
day
to
calculate
one
day
of
weather,
and
so,
if
you
want
to
do
a
month
forecast
or
our
climate
simulation,
that
would
be
30
days.
That
would
be
a
one
month
forecast.
B
B
We
include
the
human
urban
effects
and
some
of
our
models
and-
and
we
also
include
stratospheric
processes,
so
you
can
imagine
that
we've
thrown
in
virtually
everything
that
we
think
is
important,
and
I
think
that
that
we
made
great
progress
over
the
last
50
years
or
so
and
just
to
sort
of
show.
At
the
time
that
I
got
started,
we
had
simple
atmospheric
models
and
land
surface
models
and
simple
ocean
models
1970s,
and
we
coupled
on
the
models
and
we
included
sea
ice
and
I'll
skip
over
here
to
the
last
one.
B
Where
we've
had
improvements
in
all
of
these
aspects
of
the
or
the
are
the
components
we
included:
sulfate,
aerosols,
carbon
aerosols,
dust
and
sea
spray,
carbon
aerosols,
interactive
vegetation,
the
biochemical
cycles
and
ice
sheets.
Some
will
be
a
coupling
into
our
models
in
the
future
and
in
the
early
days
we
essentially
used
latitude,
longitude
grid
systems
and,
and
they
had
the
problem
of
having
lots
of
resolution
right
near
the
poles
more
than
we
would
like.
B
On
this,
our
grid
system
such
as
this,
where
you
use
finite
elements,
seems
to
be
winning
on
the
competition.
Although
all
of
these
schemes
work
reasonably
well
and-
and
we
can
do
various
kinds
of
inner
comparisons,
so
we're
hoping
for
the
next
ipcc
assessment
to
use
the
grid
system
that'll
be
roughly
25
kilometers.
B
So
you
can
see
when
you
get
down
to
the
to
to
on
this
resolution,
when
you're,
getting
down
to
the
sub
county
level
of
detail
and
and
the
thing
that
you
get
out
of
it
is
a
better
treatment
of
the
of
the
coastal
areas,
because
you
can
put
in
more
detail
also
in
the
mountainous
areas.
You
can
get
more
detail
when
you
go
to
higher
resolution,
so
you
know
typically
for
some
of
these
advanced
versions
of
the
model.
B
F
D
B
Place
of
the
geographical
place
and
we
keep
track
of
all
kinds
of
the
radiation
treatment
and
take
into
account
the
on
the
shadowing
effects
of
the
vegetation
on
the
ground
and
so
forth,
and
we
have
hydrological
cycles
which
sort
of
take
into
account
precipitation
some
of
it
falling
on
the
leaves
the
transp
transpiration
from
the
leaves
out
to
the
atmosphere,
sublimation
melting
of
of
snow.
On
the
surface,
we
have
our
root
systems.
B
D
B
B
So
all
of
these
features
show
that
if
you
go
to
high
enough
resolution,
you
can
get
very
realistic
ocean
currents,
and
I
think
this
is
at
a
point
where,
where
we
have
a
pretty
good
understanding
of
how
the
oceans
work
now
and
and
in
the
early
days,
our
ocean
models
were
very
coarse
resolution
and
highly
diffusive.
And
now
we
have
more
realistic
ocean
currencies
and.
E
B
B
Also
off
the
coast
of
japan.
You
can
see
aerosols,
they're,
very
highly
concentrated
in
these
white
areas
here
and
some
of
them
come
over
to
hawaii
and
to
the
to
the
western
coast
of
the
us
and
embedded
on.
You
also
see
hurricanes
and
cyclones
here
on
you're,
looking
at
aerosols
caused
by
dust
off
of
the
sahara
desert,
as
it
moves
across
the
caribbean
into
the
into
the
caribbean
states
and
in
the
southern
part
of
the
u.s
on
the
green
ones.
D
B
D
B
B
Where
he
looks
at
a
on
the
25
kilometer
grid
version
of
the
model,
and
I
want
to
point
out
that
we
hope
to
use,
as
I
said,
on
this
resolution
in
our
in
our
next
ipcc
assessment,
which
is
coming
up
in
a
few
years
over
here
on.
We
have
tropical
storms
and
when
you
use
high
enough
resolution,
when
you
get
down
to
25
kilometers,
you
get
hurricanes
and
tropical
storms.
B
Resolution
that
we
can
get
them-
and
you
can
see
on
the
observations
are
here
and
the
model
is
down
here,
so
you
get
very
similar
patterns
in
the
pacific
and
the
atlantic
ocean
for
the
poor
for
the
tropical
storms
when
you
move
to
to
the
hurricanes.
This
is
the
observations
up
here,
and
this
is
the
model
down
here
and
remember.
B
E
B
B
F
D
B
Now
for
the
ice
sheet
modeling,
we
haven't
really
coupled
it
in
yet
so
we
have
standalone
versions.
Here's
the
on
the
flow
of
the
major
glacier
areas
in
in
meters
per
year,
and
you
can
see
that
you,
you
have
on
these
major
glacier
flows
going
into
the
into
the
atlantic
in
certain
regions
and
here's
the
simulation
of
a
standalone
version
of
the
model,
and
we
do.
B
But
you
all
do
a
pretty
good
job
on
this
has
been
his
work
done
primarily
at
the
doe
laboratory
of
of
los
alamos
and
so
the
I
think
we're
getting
close
to
the
to
the
time
of
actually
simulating
this,
and
I
wouldn't
know
we.
We
need
to
do
this
not
only
for
for
for
greenland,
but
we
need
to
sort
of
do
it
for
antarctica
too,
and
I
think
that
that
will
be
a
another
milestone
for
climate
modeling.
B
I
want
to
show
just
a
couple
of
examples
of
of
the
research
in
which
we're
sort
of
doing
here
on
the
nurse
computers.
First
of
all,
in
the
last
ipcc
assessment-
and
we
carried
out
many
of
the
simulations
here
and
we
actually
do
ensembles
of
of
simulations.
If
we're
looking
at
just
one
ipcc
scenario,
we
would
do
sometimes
five
or
ten
ensemble
members
to
get
some
range
of
the
of
the
of
the
variation
in
between
different
members.
To
give
us
some
idea
of
the
of.
B
Deviation
and
we
also
carried
out
a
number
of
single
forcings,
where
we
would
just
put
in
the
volcanic
eruptions
or
put
in
just
the
greenhouse
gases
or
the
solar
variations
or
the
black
carbon,
and
that
we
could
sort
of
do
a
sort
of
detective
analysis
of
what's
causing.
What
in
in
the
changes
of
our
climate
and
that's,
been
very
valuable.
Because
the
researchers
really
want
to
not.
D
D
B
Maybe
up
to
15
days
and
just
knowing
that
sort
of
what
that
pattern
is
it
you
know,
gives
us
some
some
warning
about
when
the
next
heat
wave
that
the
mighty
might
arrive
and
the
forecasters
hadn't
even
known
that
this
was
possible.
But
but
now
we
wouldn't
have
been
able
to
see
this
unless
we
were
able
to
carry
out
long-term
simulations
and
and
repeat
them
with
small
perturbations
just
to
sort
of
see.
B
B
E
E
B
Have
better
insights
on
this
and
this
and
this
publication
also
attracted
a
lot
of
media
attention,
and
we
also
understand
better
on
the
on
the
interaction
in
between
the
pacific
and
the
atlantic
seesaw.
It
would
do
in
terms
of
the
barren
straight
being
open
or
closed,
and
that
was
another
paper
that
came.
F
B
D
B
B
B
So
there's
a
great
deal
of
interest
in
each
one
of
these
scenarios,
but
the
bottom
line
is:
is
that
we're
on
the
path
of
this
blue
line
here?
Going
all
the
way
up,
unfortunately,
and
the
concentration
that
we're
at
is
is
roughly
400
parts
per
per
million
and
if
we
didn't
do
anything
at
all
in
a
few
centuries
we'll
be
up
to
1800
parts
per
million.
B
I
don't
think
that
the
public's
going
to
stand
for
that
at
some
point,
environmental
justice.
This
is
where
we
interact
with
social
and
social
scientists
can-
and
I
put
this
face-
of
a
child
up
there
with
the
globe
painted
on
him
to
kind
of
point
out.
It's
not
us
that
will
probably
be
affected.
It'll,
be
the
next
generations
who
will
be
affected
by
the
climate
change.
D
B
D
B
B
Because
you
can't
immediately
turn
this
around,
it
can
only
be
done
gradually
unless
there's
some
miracle
solution
to
cutting
emissions,
and
I
think
climate
models
can
help
in
in
giving
objective
advice
on
the
possible
impacts
of
climate
change
on
food
production,
flooding,
droughts,
sea
level,
rise,
health
and
as
well
as
decision
support.
If
politicians
want
to
listen,
higher
resolution
and
more
complete
models
will
help
even
more.
E
B
B
D
D
B
B
B
B
B
B
E
D
B
And
at
the
end
of
that
meeting-
and
I
have
to
admire
alan
bromley-
the
science
advisor
he
went
around
the
table
because
we
had
the
head
of
all
of
the
science
agencies
and
asked
them
do
I
have
your
commitment
to
produce
a
program
to
to
do
research
on
this
very
important
problem,
and
they
all
all
said
yes-
and
that
was
very
important.
If
you
know
how
on
the
bureaucracy
works,
you
get
the
head
person
to
make
a
promise.
B
Happen
and
out
of
that
came
on
the
u.s
global
change
program,
and
that
is
now
2.7
billion
dollars
involves
actually
it's
13
agencies
and
it's
coordinated
out
of
the
office
of
science
and
and
technology
in
the
white
house,
and
it's
produced
a
lot
of
very
important
research
and
and
it
funds
on
the
department
of
energy's
program
in
this
area.
Nsf
nasa.
D
D
E
B
B
E
B
One
party
believes
in
climate
change
and
another
one
doesn't,
and
that
has
been
very
unfortunate
so
in
this
area
of
research,
especially
on
the
house
side,
we're
seeing
cuts,
small
cuts
in
the
climate
change
and
I
think
part
of
that's
just
driven
by
the
fact
they
don't
want
to
hear.
The
news
comes
out
of
this
type
of
research.
B
E
A
B
E
G
Dr
washington,
thank
you
for
your
presentation
and
for
your
work.
My
name
is
jim
mcmahon.
Lots
of
your
work
has
focused
on
the
global
and
then
national
advice,
but
national
governments
so
far
have
not
taken
a
lot
of
climate
actions.
Do
you
see
opportunities
as
the
resolutions
improve
force,
sub-national
entities,
states
or
cities
to
take
advantage
of
this
in
their
climate
planning?
Yes,.
B
B
B
How
are
the
changes
in
the
in
the
in
the
in
the
corals
and
the
other
things
in
the
ocean
going
to
change
or
if
you're
going
to
have
species
disappear
as
they
move
up
in
the
mountains,
but
you
can
only
go
to
certain.
You
know
certain
species
can't
exist
when
it
gets
too
hot
and
and
it's
going
to
affect
not
only
animals
but
but
vegetation.
D
B
We
were
quite
concerned
about
how
how
good
can
this
website
be
set
up
for
because
it's
not
going
to
be
a
printed
document,
700
pages,
but
it's
it's
completely
internet
document
so
that
you
can
go
to
a
section
and
if
there's
a
word
in
that
section
that
you
don't
understand,
you
can
just
click
on
it
and
you
can
find
the
definition
of
it.
So
it's
easy
to
sort
of
use.
B
F
I
am
norman
marasa
at
the
building
technologies
here
at
lbl.
I
am,
I
do
a
lot
of
work
with
weather
data
for
building
modeling
and
I
work
with
a
group
at
the
ashrae
and
there's
several
of
us
that
are
that
are
mine's
resolution
related
my
question
on
the
25
kilometer
grid
resolution
that
you
you've
selected.
It's
suspiciously
close
to
some
of
the
actual
meteorological
year
methodologies
that
we're
working
with
specifically
richard
perez,
the
sunni
new
york
university
up.
There
uses
a
lot
of
satellite
data.
F
B
Yeah,
I
think,
for
the
last
ipcc
assessment.
Most
of
the
models
are
running
with
roughly
100
kilometers.
Now
we
can
probably
go
down
to
something
like
10
kilometers
and
we
have
some
experimental
runs
where
we
do
that.
The
problem
is
that
we
can't
do
ensembles
with
those
we
can
only
run
a
few
experiments
and
then
and
that
that's
a
limiting
you
know
factor
so
there's
a
compromise
in
between
you
know,
looking
for
a
sweet
spot
between
really
high
resolution,
but
only
a
few
experiments
versus
somewhat
lower
resolution
and
being
able
to
do
ensembles.
B
B
Yeah
we
we
have
that
capability
and
there's.
There
are
several
groups
of
subgroups
who
are
actually
carrying
out
some
subgrid
calculations.
But
one
thing
that
we've
we
found
out
consistently
over
the
long
history
is
that
when
we
go
down
to
smaller
and
smaller
scales,
the
parameterizations
break
down
on
the
way
that
we
parameterize
radiation
of
cloudiness
and
so
forth,
so
that
we
haven't
reached
a
point
where.
D
B
Solution
stays
essentially
the
same,
so
that
means
that
the
subgrid
scale
for
phenomena
is
still
very
important
and
that
we
we
are
need
to
get
improvements
in
our
parametrization
so
that
they
can
automatically
scale,
but
they
don't
scale.
Now,
when
we
put
in
our
highest
resolution,
say
at
10
kilometers,
we
still
get,
you
know
cloud
systems,
we
don't
get
individual
clouds.
B
The
same
is
true
with
vegetation.
We
have
to
deal
with
with
a
community
of
vegetation
on
that
scale,
but
we
can't
really
say
much
about
the
subgrid
scale.
We
have
to
specify
that
so
there
is
some
challenging
things
when
we
get
down
to
the
real
grid
scale
and
keep
in
mind
if
you're
looking
at
waves,
you
on
the
waves
have
to
be
several
times
larger
than
the
subgrid
scale
or
the
grid
scale
in
order
to
resolve
them.
Well,
so
there's
some.
B
C
I
was
wondering
if
you
could
comment
on
the
increasing
number
of
sensors
and
detectors
that
are
available
for
and
how
those
influence
the
climate
models.
For
example,
I've
heard
about
you
know
laying
sensors
on
under
the
on
the
ocean
floor
and
how
those
might
be
incorporated
into
future
models
and
using
measured
data
from
the
the
atmosphere
of
the
ocean.