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From YouTube: 10/13/2022 - Economic Forum Pt. 1
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This is the second meeting in calendar year 2022. ***TIME UPDATED** Please see agenda for details.
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A
A
Madam
chair,
this
is
Russell
ginyan,
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
of
the
legislative
Council
Bureau
for
the
record
and
since
we're
sort
of
here
in
the
hybrid
meeting
mode
of
three
members
attending
physically
here
at
the
Las,
Vegas
location
and
two
are
in
the
zoom
platform.
I'll
call
the
roll
here
so
Mr
Chrome
hi
I'm,
here
Mr
zhan
good
morning,
president.
A
Thank
you,
Mr
Levitt,
here
Vice
chair
Lewis
here
and
chair
Rosenthal,
here,
okay
Madam
chair.
Let
the
record
show
that
all
the
members
are
present
either
physically
or
virtually
in
the
zoom
meeting
platform.
Thank
you.
The
next
agenda
item
are
opening
remarks
so
good
morning.
For
the
record,
my
name
is
Linda
Rosenthal,
chair
of
the
economic
Forum
I'd
like
to
welcome
the
members,
presenters
staff
and
any
members
of
the
public
to
this
meeting
of
the
economic
forum.
A
A
I
would
like
to
start
the
meeting
by
refreshing
everybody's
mind
that
the
economic
forum
is
statutorily
required
to
provide
a
forecast
of
unrestricted
general
fund
revenue
for
the
current
fiscal
year:
fiscal
2023,
fiscal,
2024
and
fiscal
2025
of
the
next
biennium
on
or
before
December
3rd.
However,
since
the
third
falls
on
the
Saturday
this
year,
the
Forum
is
allowed
to
meet
on
the
following
Monday
or
Tuesday.
This
is
the
forecast
that
is
required
to
be
used
by
the
governor
in
developing
the
executive
budget
that
will
be
submitted
to
the
legislature
for
the
2023
regular
session.
A
A
The
last
time
we
were
tasked
with
preparing
a
forecast
was
back
in
May
of
2021.
When
we
were
still
deep
in
the
throes
of
the
pandemic.
It
was
very
challenging
to
predict
the
timing
and
pace
of
a
potential
recovery
back
then
and
I
think
it
may
also
be
just
as
challenging
this
forecast
cycle,
given
the
current
economic
conditions.
A
A
Good
great,
then
I
will
proceed
with
any
public
comment
under
agenda
item
number.
Three
I
will
also
ask
Mr
ginden,
as
staff
to
The
Forum,
to
assist
me
as
needed
in
conducting
today's
agenda
I'll
first
start
up
in
Carson
City.
Is
there
anyone
in
the
Carson
City
location
that
would
like
to
provide
public
comment.
A
A
A
A
So
Madam
chairs
and
with
the
motion
a
second
then
I'll
call
the
parole
for
the
vote
for
the
approval
of
the
minutes.
If
that's
okay
with
you,
madam
chair,
thank
you.
Mr
Chrome,
hi,
Mr,
Zahn,
aye,
aye,
Mr,
Levitt,
all
right,
Vice,
chair,
Lewis,
aye,
chair,
Rosenthal,
aye,
Madam,
chair.
Let
the
record
show
that
approval
the
motion
to
approve
the
minutes
from
the
June
9th
2022
meeting
were
approved
unanimously.
Thank
you.
Thank
you.
A
A
So
if
you
we're
looking
through
the
minutes,
a
lot
of
the
I
guess
for
the
record,
my
name
is
David
Schmidt,
I'm,
Chief
Economist
for
the
research
and
Analysis
Bureau
for
the
Nevada
Department
of
Employment
training
and
Rehabilitation,
and
if
you're
looking
through
through
the
minutes,
a
lot
of
the
the
things
that
I'm
going
to
say
here,
Echo
What
I
said
back
in
June
over
the
last
four
months.
A
For
the
most
part,
the
trends
that
were
taking
place
have
continued
to
take
place
with,
with
a
few
Milestones
that
we've
reached
in
that
time.
First,
employment
has
fully
recovered.
We
have
surpassed
our
February
2020
employment
levels.
This
happened
in
June,
which
we
released
in
July
June
and
July
actually
gave
us
pretty
strong
employment
growth
in
August.
We
saw
a
bit
of
a
step
back
from
that,
but
really
looking
over
the
history
of
month-to-month
changes
in
our
employment
estimates.
A
This
is
pretty
typical,
especially
if
we've
had
a
couple
of
pretty
strong
months,
because
these
are
monthly
estimates.
They
will
have
a
bit
of
of
volatility
and
they
will
move
up
and
down
a
little
bit,
but
overall,
we're
still
11
000
jobs
ahead
of
where
we
were
in
February
of
2020,
and
you
can
really
see
here
that
the
pace
of
that
recovery
compared
to
either
the
2001
recession
or
2007
recession
has
been
pretty
rapid,
even
outside
of
the
initial
surge
in
employment.
A
We
saw
after
the
initial
close
closure
of
non-essential
businesses.
We've
continued
to
see
jobs
be
added
at
a
pretty
rapid
Pace
Nevada
over
the
last
roughly
year,
and
a
half
has
been
either
number
one
or
number
two
in
job
growth
over
the
year
said
in
part
by
the
recovery
that
we've
seen
over
that
period.
A
If
you
look
through
the
the
various
Industries,
you
can
see
looking
at
the
green
numbers
at
the
left
side
of
this
chart
that
most
Industries
are
above
where
they
were
in
February
of
2020..
The
major
exceptions
to
that
are,
in
particular,
the
casino
hotel
industry,
which
is
wrapped
up
into
accommodation
and
food
service
and
Legion
Hospitality
near
the
top
of
this
chart,
still
down
about
30
000
jobs.
A
If
you
were
to
separate
accommodation
and
Food
Services
you'd
see,
Food
Services
is
about
10
above
where
it
was
at
that
time,
and
the
accommodation
industry
is
about
82
percent
of
where
it
was
other
areas
where
we
remain
below
that
February
2020
level
are
administrative
and
Waste
Services,
which
includes
temporary
health
workers.
Other
services,
which
is
sort
of
the
the
general
cash
all
for
all
other
personal
services,
not
categorized
somewhere
else,
but
usually
has
some
pretty
strong
ties
to
the
Elysium
hospitality
industry,
particularly
in
Las,
Vegas
and
then
state
and
local
government.
A
Those
are
the
major
areas
of
the
economy
that
haven't
recovered.
On
the
flip
side,
you
have
transportation
warehousing
and
utilities,
which
is
far
above
where
it
was,
but
we've
also
seen
pretty
significant
growth
in
all
of
our
Goods
producing
Industries,
including
mining,
construction
and
Manufacturing,
professional
and
Technical
Services,
the
healthcare
industry
and
a
number
of
other
places
that
are
well
ahead
of
where
they
were
another
way
to
look
at
this
is
this
chart
where
the
total
size
of
the
box
is
all
employment
in
the
state?
A
As
of
August
of
2022,
the
color
of
the
Box
tells
you
the
level
of
recovery
with
areas
that
are
more
red,
being
less
recovered
areas
that
are
a
brighter
green
being
more
recovered.
You
can
also
see
here
the
average
weekly
wage
in
2021,
and
one
of
the
important
takeaways
here
is
that
in
those
areas
where
we're
seeing
recovery,
a
lot
of
them
are
paying.
Above
average
wages
in
the
state
for
comparison.
A
According
to
this
piece
of
data,
the
average
weekly
wage
in
2021
was
about
1
140
per
week,
and
so
you
can
see,
for
example,
in
financial
activities
which
pays
16.68
manufacturing
1348
wholesale
trade,
1670
construction,
1334,
Healthcare
1209.
You
can
see
a
lot
of
these
industries
where
we've
recovered
pay,
above
that
1100
wage,
even
transfer
station
warehousing
utilities,
which
is
a
little
bit
below
that
Mark.
It
still
pays
considerably
more
than
the
accommodation
industry,
which
was
at
840
per
week.
A
There
are
some
exceptions:
Food
Services
is
a
little
under
500
per
week
and
government,
one
of
the
areas
where
we
haven't
recovered
10
space
above
average
wages
of
1450
per
week,
but
on
average
the
areas
where
we're
growing
are
also
areas
that
tend
to
pay
more,
and
so
this
is
having
some
impact
in
the
the
average
wages
that
we
see
in
the
state
as
well.
A
Quick
question,
please.
This
is
Vincent's
on
that
chart
that
you
just
showed
that
includes
both
full-time
and
part-time
employees.
Yes,
the
the
this
comes
from
our
quarterly
census
of
employment
and
wages,
and
so
what
we
do
is
we
take
all
the
wages
paid
in
that
industry
divided
by
average
employment
in
a
quarter
and
divided
that
by
13,
and
so
this
makes
no
assumption
about
the
hours.
A
A
Looking
at
employment
in
a
few
selected
Industries
again
the
the
trends
that
we
have
been
seeing
continue
to
be
the
case.
The
Casino
Hotel
industry
saw
some
pretty
strong
recovery
in
the
around
the
end
of
last
year,
beginning
of
this
year,
particularly
as
we
were
revising
the
estimates
that
we
see.
But
then
the
trend
has
been
a
little
bit
flat
of
all
of
the
employment
estimates.
A
So
we
might
see
that
this
is
actually
a
bit
stronger
than
what
it
looks
like
right
now,
however,
as
as
of
right
now,
these
are
the
the
best
monthly
estimates
that
we
have
and
we've
seen
a
pretty
flat
Trend
in
both
of
the
Reno
and
Las
Vegas
areas
for
transportation,
warehousing
and
utilities,
and
because
the
font
here
is
very
small,
I
will
say
in
all
of
these
charts.
Las
Vegas
is
on
top
Reno
is
on
the
bottom,
and
the
full
span
of
the
chart
is
1992.
A
The
present
some
Logistics
employment
we've
seen
strong
increases
in
the
Las
Vegas
area,
stronger
than
we've
seen
in
the
arena,
Sparks
area
coming
out
of
the
pandemic,
and
so
we've
seen
some
real
growth
in
this
Transportation,
where
housing
sign
that's
really
Las
Vegas
is
really
where
that's
being
driven
in
the
state
manufacturing.
Employment
has
seen
very
steady
increases
in
both
Las
Vegas
and
Reno.
Interestingly,
total
employment.
In
each
of
these
areas
is
about
30
000
people,
what's
particularly
encouraging
I
think
is
for
Las
Vegas.
A
Until
recently,
it
was
kind
of
below
the
peak
that
we
saw
prior
to
the
Great
Recession
when
construction
driven
manufacturing,
like
gypsum
drywall
cabinets
things
of
that
nature,
took
a
larger
hit
in
the
Las
Vegas
area
coming
out
of
the
Great
Recession.
We
have
surpassed
that
total
employment,
so
we're
at
the
all-time
high
for
manufacturing
employment
in
both
Las
Vegas
and
Reno
construction.
Employment
has
also
been
recovering
and
is
above
pre-pandemic
levels
in
both
Las
Vegas
and
Reno.
A
It's
below
Great
Recession
levels
and
while
we're
in
this
place,
where
we're
housing
prices,
is
something
that
people
are
thinking
about,
I
think
it's
encouraging
to
know.
We
haven't
seen
that
rapid
acceleration
and
boom
in
construction
employment
that
we
saw
in
the
Great
Recession.
So
we
don't
have
that
sort
of
overweight
emphasis
on
the
construction
industry
in
our
economy
right
now
compared
to
the
Great
Recession,
which
I
think
as
we're
in
a
time
of
higher
uncertainty,
around
housing
prices,
I
think
that
leaves
us
less
exposed
than
we
were
in
the
Great
Recession
I.
A
Think
that's
that's
good
news
for
our
economy,
so
we're
recovering,
but
we're
not
accelerating
the
way
that
we
were
then
switching
to
Unemployment,
similar
to
in
June
unemployment
is
low.
It's
continued
to
decline.
We're
currently
4.4,
which
is
seven
tenths
of
a
percent
higher
than
the
us
as
a
whole.
We
are
relatively
High
compared
to
other
states.
A
Personally,
I
think
this
is
kind
of
good
news,
because
if
you
see
down
at
the
bottom
of
the
charts
States
like
Minnesota,
New,
Hampshire,
Utah,
Nebraska
you're
talking
nearly
two
percent
unemployment,
that's
a
very,
very
tight
labor
market
with
a
very
low
number
of
people
that.
B
Are
in
the
middle
of
transitioning,
between
jobs,
which
will
likely
Drive
wage
pressure
and
challenges
recruiting
and
finding
workers
we're
below
five
percent.
So
we
have
a
low
historical
unemployment.
C
But
even
though
unemployment
is
relatively
High,
I,
don't
think
that's
necessarily
a
bad
story
for
the
overall
health
of
the
economy.
Our
labor
force
participation
rate
does
remain
low.
The
grade
ribbon
in
this
chart
shows
the
20th
to
80th
percentile
for
all
states,
so
you
have
roughly
10
states
above
the
ribbon.
10
states
below
the
ribbon
and
30
states
in
the
middle
Nevada
is
near
the
lower
end
of
that
middle
range,
and
so
our
overall
labor
force
participation
is
just
above
60
percent.
C
There
has
been
a
long-term
decline
among
all
states,
as
well
as
in
Nevada,
because
this
is
driven
both
by
a
specific
impacts
that
we've
seen
coming
out
of
the
pandemic,
as
well
as
some
longer
term
demographic
shifts
and
changes,
but
I
do
find
it
interesting.
If
you
draw
roughly
a
straight
line
from
the
high
of
the
2000s
through
what
we
saw
coming
out
of
the
Great
Recession
to
now,
you
can
see
that
it's
been
a
pretty
steady
Trend.
This
is
not
something.
A
There's
more
longer
term
structural
factors
here
and
fewer
short-term
adjustment
factors
taking
place
right
now,
looking
at
wages
in
Nevada,
the
next
three
charts
are
all
sort
of
a
piece
of
a
whole.
Where
you
look
at
total
average
weekly
wages.
I
will
note
this
chart
uses
a
different
measure
than
the
the
Box
chart
earlier.
A
This
is
a
from
a
monthly
estimate
of
wages
coming
from
the
current
employment
statistics
program
and
it
specifically
estimates
weekly
wages
as
a
roll
up
of
average
hours
being
worked
and
average
hourly
wage,
and
so
it
gives
you
a
slightly
different
number,
but
it's
a
different
way
of
looking
at
a
similar
measure.
This
is
also
only
the
private
sector.
It
excludes
government
employment,
so
the
average
weekly
wage
here
is
996
dollars
in
Nevada.
A
That,
for
Nevada
is
a
little
bit
lower
than
average
we're
30
seconds
among
the
states,
but
we've
been
growing
at
a
relatively
rapid
Pace
6.7,
which
is
six
out
of
all
of
the
states.
As
of
August.
A
A
This
is
right
in
the
middle
of
the
experience
of
all
states,
most
states
have
seen
a
decline,
and
this
is
likely
driven
in
part
because
the
hourly
wage
has
been
increasing
and
Nevada's
hourly
wage
has
been
increasing
at
a
relatively
rapid
pace
of
7.8
percent,
which
is
Sport
out
of
the
states
or
all
private
sector
workers
we're
higher
in
some
areas
we're
lower
in
some
other
areas,
but
overall
Nevada's
hourly
wage
over
the
last
year
is
up
about
eight
percent.
A
In
other
terms,
no
one's
surprised
to
hear
I'm
sure
that
interest
rates
have
been
rising,
they're
Rising
relatively
rapidly.
Here
you
can
see
the
the
effective
federal
funds
rate
over
the
last
roughly
40
years
and
as
the
interest
rates
are
going
up,
the
yield
curve
is
inverted
inverted
and
so
short-term
rates
are
higher
than
long-term
rates,
and
this
is
often
seen
as
a
potential
indicator
of
a
recession.
D
That
shows
up
in
the
news
where
you
have
a
couple
of
random
headlines:
recession
odds
odds
of
avoiding
a
recession,
less
than
50
50
98
recession
risk
lots
of
different
takes
on
this
I
I
did
choose
some
of
the
most
dramatic
ones
for
for
illustrating
the
fact
that
a
recession
and
concerns
of
a
recession
are
definitely
something
that's
on
people's
minds
on
the.
In
contrast.
Currently,
our
level
of
unemployment
claims
is
really
really
low.
A
This
chart
I'll
highlight
the
left
axis
here
is
a
logarithmic
scale,
so
each
line
that
you
see
is
a
doubling.
Each
label
on
the
chart
is
a
quadrupling
in
the
level
of
Science,
and
this
is
unemployment
claims
new
claims
being
filed
compared
to
Total
employment
in
the
state.
You
can
see
the
impact
of
the
pandemic
here,
where
we
shot
up
to
roughly
64
claims
per
thousand
workers.
This
is
much
much
higher
than
anything
else.
A
We've
seen
where
it's
several
orders
of
magnitude,
larger
than
even
the
the
Great
Recession
or
911,
as
as
examples
currently
we're
on
the
flip
side,
where
we're
down
near
the
bottom
edge
of
this
chart.
If
you,
you
draw
a
line
across
the
lower
than
the
lowest
points
in
everything
other
than
a
single
week
of
reporting
issue,
which
spikes
really
well
we're
currently
at
1.2
or
1.3.
So
we
have
64.
D
Times
fewer
initial
claims
for
employed
person,
we
saw
it
behind
of
the
pandemic
through
the
90s.
This
measure
hovered
at
about
three,
so
we're
about
half
what
we
saw
during
a
decade-long
economic
boom.
So
we
have
a
very
small
number
of
people
relative
to
the
number
of
workers
in
the
economy
filing
for
claims
in
any
particular
week
over
the
last
year,
I
really
want
to
look
here
at
the
left
column
in
the
right
column.
This
is
a
number
of
different
measures
from
the
unemployment
insurance
program.
D
Total
claims
coming
in
total
weekly
claims
being
filed,
and
if
you
look
at
the
August
2022
numbers
in
the
12-month
average
you'll
see
that
in
a
lot
of
cases,
they're
pretty
close,
and
what
this
tells
me
is
that
over
the
last
year
we've
been
pretty
stable,
we
haven't
seen
huge
spikes.
We
haven't
seen
huge
drop-offs.
A
Our
level
of
initial
claims
is
a
few
hundred
higher.
Our
total
weeks
that
are
being
paid
is
a
few
hundred
lower.
The
total
dollar
amount
being
paid
is
a
little
bit
higher,
but
that's
in
part
because
the
average
benefit
amount
has
risen
of
the
total
number
of
weeks
being
filed
us
down
a
bit.
Probably
the
most
dramatic
number
for
me
is
the
exhaustion
rate,
the
share
of
unemployed
workers
who
use
up
all
of
their
benefits
prior
to
exiting
the
program.
A
Typically,
this
has
been
about
30
percent,
even
in
good
times
and
so
to
have
a
21
exhaustion
rate
is
incredibly
Low
by
historical
standards,
and
that
tells
me
there's
a
lot
of
opportunity
for
workers
to
find
work.
This
is
not
a
great
surprise.
We
know
it
through
the
number
of
job
openings
and
some
other
measures.
Also,
if
you
look
at
the
total
share
of
quits
the.
B
A
number
of
measures
which
you
can
see
in
the
table
at
the
bottom
of
this
chart,
but
some
of
the
interesting
ones
for
me
are
quits
and
total
separations.
What
share
of
the
people
who
lose
work
are
doing
so
voluntarily
versus
being
laid
off
or
discharged.
You
can
see
here.
The
share
of
quits
or
quits
as
a
share
of
total
separations
is
the
highest.
It's
been
in
the
relatively
Short
history
of
this
program,
both
in
Nevada
and
the
US.
B
A
A
That
being
said,
there
does
appear
to
be
a
little
bit
of
a
shift
taking
place.
These
charts
look
at
the
level
of
job
openings
on
the
vertical
axis
and
the
level
of
hires
on
the
horizontal
axis
and
how
much
they've
changed
over
the
past
year,
and
so
you
can
see
in
a
lot
of
Industries
and
I'm
just
going
to
kind
of
flip
through
this
pretty
quickly.
A
If
you
want
to
look
at
the
details,
they
are
in
your
packets,
but
the
the
general
trend
of
these
arrows
is
that
the
job
opening
rate
does
appear
to
be
sliding
in
a
lot
of
Industries.
It's
come
down
over
the
last
year,
and
this
is
also
true
of
the
quit
rate.
So
the
the
level
of
quits,
while
still
highs
a
share
of
total
separations,
does
appear
to
be
shrinking
just
a
little
bit.
Some
Industries
it's
up
but
I,
think
broadly
across
a
lot
of
Industries.
B
A
Slow
economic
growth
based
on
underlying
trends
like
population
size
and
the
the
normal
factors
that
drive
employment
as
opposed
to
recovering
the
jobs
that
we
lost
during
the
pandemic.
The
level
of
unemployment
is
pretty
normal
and
it's
consistent
with
prioritive
economic
strength.
A
Unemployment
claims
are
pretty
low,
input
rates
are
high,
so
we
still
have
a
pretty
tight
labor
market,
though
it
does
appear
to
be
loosening
a
little
bit,
and
we
see
that
in
the
National,
hiring
rates
and
job
opening
levels
coming
down
a
little
bit
so
I
think
we're
we're
still
in
a
strong
labor
market.
There
does
appear
to
be
a
little
bit
of
softening,
but
I
I.
A
Don't
think
that
we're
seeing
any
imminent
signs
of
Rapid
deterioration
in
the
economy
at
this
point
in
time-
and
that
is
all
of
the
slides
I
have
and
I'd
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions
that
your
Forum
may
have.
A
Let
me
just
ask
the
question:
if
you
were
going,
if
you
had
a
responsibility
to
do
that,
what
recommendation
would
you
give
us
as
to
how
you
would
see
that
you
know
given
up
everything
you've
seen
what
what?
What
do
you?
What
are
you?
What
is
it?
What
do
you
think
is
going
to
happen
for
the
next
two
and
a
half
years,
so
David,
Smith
and
I
I
would
first
put
an
asterisk
and
say:
I
tend
to
be
a
pretty
optimistic
person.
A
So,
if
I'm,
looking
ahead,
like
I
I
will
take
the
the
glass
half
full
perspective,
are
there
potential
warning
signs
for
the
national
economy?
Obviously,
the
Federal
Reserve
is
trying
to
slow
down
the
the
very
rapid
pace
of
economic
activity.
We've
seen
recently,
we
do
have
high
inflation.
These
things
are
concerning
that
being
said,
I
I
feel,
like
Nevada,
is
still
in
a
pretty
strong
place.
A
I
I
do
think
that
the
level
of
unemployment
rate
we
have
right
now
is
is
actually
more
healthy
than
a
number
of
other
states,
because
it
is
a
little
bit
higher
and
there's
a
little
bit
more
looseness
in
that
labor
market.
If
it's
possible
for
unemployment
to
be
too
low
and
job
conditions
to
be
too
tight,
that
makes
it
a
overall
burden
on
economic
activity
and
so
I
think
we're
in
a
better
spot
in
that
regard
than
a
number
of
other
states.
A
C
The
unemployment
trust
fund
and
I
did
not
include
any
factors
to
say
we're
heading
into
a
recession,
and
we
should
expect
benefit
payments
to
rise.
I
do
think
that
we
will
see
some
Rising
costs
in
terms
of
total
wages,
and
so
we
look
at
average
wages
and
average
benefits
Rising
due
to
that
increase.
We've
seen
in
in
wages
over
the
the
next
few
years,
but
I
didn't
build
in
expectations
of
a
major
downward
shift.
C
Really
just
a
I
I
would
expect
inflation
to
come
down
and
that
the
pace
of
those
wage
increases
to
slow
but
I
think
they're,
probably
going
to
still
be
affecting
us
for
I
would
guess
at
least
the
next
year.
C
Even
if
the
pace
is
slowing,
that
means
you're
still
accept
accelerating,
even
if
it's
at
a
slower
rate
over
the
the
next
several
months,
but
I
I
think
there
is
a
difference
between
loosening
very
tight
conditions
and
going
into
a
decline
in
overall
economic
activity
and
I
I
would
characterize
my
expectations
for
the
the
next
few
years,
as
hopefully
loosening
and
But
continuing
to.
A
See
more
Trend
growth
than
rapid
growth,
I'd
say
more:
two
percent
employment
growth
over
the
next
several
years,
instead
of
the
five
percent
seeing
right
now
so
slowing
down,
but
into
a
more
stable
and
sustainable
Pace
instead
of
recessionary
or
overly
accelerated
levels
of
activity.
Hopefully
that
wasn't
just
a
bunch
of
words,
saying
I,
don't
know,
but
hopefully
good.
A
A
Great
I
just
have
one
question
on
back
on
your
slide:
it's
page
31
of
the
pack
and
I'm
not
sure
where
you
show
the
different
Industries
and
the
pace
of
recovery,
and
it
showed
the
Leisure
and
hospitality
and
accommodation
and
Food
Service
still
having
quite
a
ways
to
go.
Do
you
have
any
insight
at
all
into
whether
that
is
because
those
businesses
have
not
recovered
as
quickly
and
they're
slow
to
higher?
Or
is
this
just
truly?
They
can't
find
the
workers.
A
David
schwig
into
the
record,
I
I,
think
there's
a
little
bit
of
both
taking
place.
I
think
there
have
been
likely
some
structural
changes
over
the
last
two
years
about
the
level
of
Staff,
that's
needed
to
maintain
operations,
and
so
my
expectations
is
not.
My
expectation
is
not
we're
going
to
get
back
up
to
where
we
were.
A
That
being
said,
at
least
nationally,
there's
a
very
high
level
of
job
openings
and
hires,
taking
place
in
the
Leisure
and
hospitality
industry,
and
so,
unfortunately,
that
data
isn't
available
at
the
state
level
but
I
using
that
to
set
expectations
locally,
I
think
it's
likely
that
there's
still
a
desire
to
hire
people
I
know
that
I've
seen
gaming
properties
in
the
the
number
of
job
ads
that
are
being
posted
as
some
of
the
largest
ones.
A
So
there's
a
an
effort
to
recruit
workers,
that's
out
there
and
so
I
think
there
is
some
aspect
of
this
which
is
struggling
to
attract
and
retain
workers,
because
there's
high
levels
of
openings,
high
levels
of
hires
and
high
levels
of
quits
in
that
industry
nationally.
But
I
also
think
that,
even
if
there
were
an
infinite
number
of
available
workers,
I
don't
think
that
that
level
of
employment
would
get
back
to
where
it
was
prior
to
the
pandemic.
Just
because
of
some
of
the
changes
that
employers,
probably
at
first
had
to
adopt
and.
E
Then
have,
since
you
know,
worked
into
their
business
practices
that
have
probably
reduced
the
overall
demand
for
that
industry.
Over
the
last,
the
casino
hotel
industry
in
Las
Vegas
peaked
in
2006
in
Reno
and
Sparks
in
1997,
and
so
there's
been
a
pretty
flat
Trend
in
terms
of
employment
in
those
Industries
and
so
because
of
the
shift
I
wouldn't
expect
it
to
come
back
up
to
where
it
was,
but
to
probably
settle
in
at
a
bit
lower
level.
E
In
the
long
term,
our
long-term
projections
do
have
accommodation
coming
back
up
toward
its
pre-recession
levels,
but
that's
by
2030
and
so
over.
The
next
few
years,
I
think
that'll
still
remain
well
below
that.
A
A
Good
morning
good
morning,
Madam
chair
members
of
The
Forum
Matthew,
Lawton,
Nevada,
State
demographer
for
the
record
and
the
Department
of
Taxation
I'm,
going
to
present
you
this
morning
a
brief
presentation
covering
the
components
of
population
change
as
they
relate
to
Nevada
some
of
the
demographic
characteristics
of
our
estate
and
then
I'll.
Do
a
brief
overview
of
the
most
recent
population
projections
for
the
state.
A
Just
a
little
refresher
here.
So.
E
For
the
components
of
change,
looking
at
kind
of
how
we
estimate
population
from
one
time
period
to
the
next,
we
start
with
a
population
at
a
previous
time.
We
oops
sorry
about
that.
We
add
in
the
natural
increase,
which
is
the
number
of
births
minus
the
number
of
deaths,
and
then
we
also
add
in
net
migration,
which
is
immigration,
minus
immigration
for
that
same
time
period,
so
I'm
going
to
cover
each
of
these
components
show
some
of
the
national
Trends.
A
And
then
speak
to
how
those
relate
to
Nevada,
so
we
saw
some
headlines
earlier
this
year
that
the
U.S
birth
rate
had
increased
for
the
first
time
since
2014,
so
this
ended
a
seven
year
slide.
However,
it
was
a
very
slight
increase
of
only
one
percent.
Looking
at
a
longer
time
series
nationally,
you
know
the
the
for
the
fertility
rate
nationally
has
been
on
a
state
city
decline
with
a
small
bump
just
prior
to
the
Great
Recession.
A
These
charts
show
the
total
bursts
in
the
U.S
on
the
left
side,
as
well
as
the
fertility
rate
on
the
right.
The
fertility
rate
is
the
number
of
bursts
per
1000
women
of
childbearing
age,
and
they
both
show
this
gradual
decline
nationally
and
if
we
dive
a
little
bit
deeper
and
look
at
a
more
detailed
representation
by
year
and
age
group,
we
see
that
the
trend
is
that
women
are
waiting
longer
to
have
fewer
babies.
A
This
chart
on
the
right
shows
that
since
1990,
women
have
delayed
bursts
into
their
late
20s
and
30s
and
overall
are
giving
birth
to
fewer
children.
So
now
take
a
look
at
Nevada.
Here's
the
total
burst
over.
The
last
couple
of
decades-
and
we
can
see
a
similar
Trend
nationally,
the
slight
bump,
just
prior
to
the
Great
Recession
and
then
the
slight
downward
Trend.
But
if
we
normalize
that
for
population
of
child
women
of
child
burn
age,
we
can
see
that
there
is
a
steady
decline
in
our
fertility
rate
for
our
state.
A
So
then,
looking
at
the
the
other
component
of
natural
increase,
the
death,
so
we
have
on
the
left.
The
chart
shows
the
total
deaths
annually
in
Nevada
over
the
last
decade.
A
A
B
More
deaths
than
bursts
with
one
that
was
reporting
single
digit
increases
in
netbirth
by
2020.
The
number
had
increased
to
nine
counties
that
had
either
zero
or
negative
natural
change,
and
two
with
single
digit
birth
increases.
Now,
as
of
2021
our
latest
year
of
data,
we
have
13
counties
with
negative.
F
Natural
change
with
one
reporting
single
digit
net
burst
so
only
Clark,
Elko
and
Washoe
counties
had
significant
birth
over
deaths.
Now,
obviously,
we
have
to
consider
the
pandemic
impact
over
the
last
two
years.
But
even
if
we
look
at
the
pre-covered
trend,
we
can
see
the
obvious
decline
in
the
natural
growth
in
our
state,
so
we
turn
to
migration.
F
The
other
component
of
of
population
so
shifts
within
the
United
States
or
what
we
call
domestic
migration
people
moving
from
state
to
state
have
been
the
primary
driver
for
population
growth
in
Nevada
for
the
past
several
decades.
There's
no
direct
measure
of
these
shifts.
However,
we
do
have
some
data,
such
as
the
IRS.
They
do
publish
data
based
on
tax
returns.
It
tends
to
lag
by
a
couple
of
years.
F
The
latest
data
set,
which
is
what
this
chart
is
based
off
of,
was
published
in
May,
and
it
shows
migration
patterns
for
the
returns
that
were
filed
between
2019
and
2020..
This
data
does
have
its
issues
such
as
non-filers
and
so
forth,
but
it
offers
a
glimpse
of
domestic
migration
patterns.
So,
as
we
can
see,
most
counties
in
Nevada
showed
a
net
population
gain
from
2019
to
2020.
F
However,
if
we
look
at
some
other
subjective
measures,
we
can
see
that
there
is
evidence
of
perhaps
a
declining
Trend
in
domestic
migration
into
the
state.
One
of
the
more
interesting
sources
that
I
look
at
are
the
annual
mover
studies
published
by
various
companies,
for
example
U-Haul.
They
have
an
annual
report
that
they
released
in
their
latest
figures,
showed
Nevada
dropping
from
number
eight
for
inbound
moves
in
2020
to
number
29
nationally
in
2021
United
Van
Lines.
F
They
have
consistently
shown
Nevada
slipping
since
2018
down
to
number
31
in
their
latest
study,
North
American,
Van
Lines.
They
show
that
in
2021,
outbound
moves
have
overtaken
inbound
moves
in
Nevada
for
the
first
time
since
2012.
In
their
study,
we
also
have
to
consider
international
migration.
F
This
is
population
that
we're
moving
into
the
state
from
other
countries.
The
Census
Bureau
does
provide
an
estimate
of
net
international
migration
for
the
U.S
in
their
annual
population
estimates,
and
these
estimates
are
allocated
as
a
share
to
each
state.
In
those
estimates
toward
the
end
of
the
last
decade,
the
estimate
showed
a
significant
decline
overall
in
international
migration,
which
is
reflected
in
this
chart.
However,
there
seems
to
be
indications
that
perhaps
this
was
overestimated
due
to
pandemic
delays
and
some
other
administrative
issues.
F
The
2020
and
2021
figures
shown
in
this
chart
are
from
the
Census
bureau's
latest
vintage
of
population
estimates
which
use
a
different
population-based
derived
from
the
2020
census.
So
we
have
to
take
this
data
series
with
a
grain
of
salt,
because
the
years
that
are
highlighted
in
yellow
are
not
derived
from
the
same
estimate
base
as
the
2020
and
2021
figures
shown
so
I
would
expect
by
this
time.
Next
year
we
should
we'll
finally
see
those
inner
stencil
estimates
that
will
give
us
a
more
complete
picture
of
the
international
migration
Trend
over
the
last
decade.
F
So
to
summarize
the
components
of
change
fertility
rates,
they
continue
to
decline
nationally
and
that's
reflected
in
Nevada
as
well.
Women
are
waiting
longer
to
have
fewer
babies.
Our
natural
increase
continues
to
decline,
which
was
accelerated
by
the
pandemic.
Indications
are
that
domestic
migration
to
Nevada
is
slowing,
although
I
would
caution
that
we
need
more
post-pandemic
data
to
really
understand
what's
happening
there.
The
international
migration
picture
is
still
unclear
because
we
don't
have
that
complete
inner
stencil
update
from
the
Census
moving
forward
into
the
demographic
characteristics
of
the
population.
Nevada
is
getting
older.
F
If
we
look
at
the
change
between
2010
and
2021,
we
can
see
that
most
Nevada
counties
increased
in
their
median
age
to
held
steady
and
one
dropped
in
age
Statewide.
The
median
increased
by
2.4
years,
which
was
faster
than
the
national
increase.
F
For
race
and
ethnicity,
I
tried
to
find
some
different
ways
to
illustrate
the
changing
composition
of
race
in
our
state
on
the
left
is
a
donut
chart
comparing
the
racial
and
ethnic
distribution
in
Nevada
for
the
2010
census
estimate
base,
that's
the
inner
ring
on
the
chart
and
then
the
2021
vintage
census
estimate
is
shown
on
the
outer
ring.
So
you
can
see
the
proportional
increases
for
each
racial
and
ethnic
group
with
the
exception
of
the
white
alone
category
which
decreased
during
the
that
time
period.
F
So
I'd
like
to
share
with
you
a
summary
of
the
latest
population
projections
that
I
published
on
October
1st
a
little
bit
of
background
on
the
methodology
for
these
projections,
they're,
primarily
based
on
an
independent
econometric
model
produced
by
Regional
economic,
Models,
Incorporated
or
Remy.
This
model
has
been
used
by
the
state
demographer
for
over
20
years.
It's
a
well-regarded
model.
It's
existed
since
the
1980s,
it's
used
by
various
state
and
local
governments
and
academic
institutions.
The
latest
release
used
for
these
projections
was
published
in
June.
F
So,
overall,
the
model
showed
a
cumulative
population
increase
of
just
over
half
a
million
over
the
course
of
the
next
20
years.
If
we
look
at
the
growth
rate,
we
can
see
a
general
slowing
of
the
population
growth
rate
Statewide
during
that
period.
Although
growth
is
projected,
it's
not
forecasted
to
be
at
the
pace
that
we've
seen
in
recent
decades
to
provide
some
detail
to
these
projections.
F
The
model
showed
a
gradual
decline
in
growth
for
the
two
most
populous
counties
in
this
in
the
state
over
the
next
20
years,
still
growth,
but
just
a
declining
rate
of
growth.
While
the
rural
counties
showed
a
fairly
steady
rate
of
growth
and
I
tried
to
divide
this
up
further
by
region,
the
Southern
and
Northwestern
counties,
they
mirror
slowing
growth
rate.
F
The
central
County
showed
a
fairly
steady
growth
rate
through
time.
The
time
series
in
the
northeastern
and
North
Central
counties
showed
a
slight
increase
in
growth
toward
the
middle
of
the
series,
so
a
little
bit
more
of
a
geographically
defined
Trend
there.
F
So
for
for
concluding
the
projections,
we
do
have
to
take
some
some
of
the
risks
and
into
consideration
the.
F
Especially
coming
out
of
the
pandemic,
you
know
the
and
the
impacts
on
the
economic
indicators
from
the
pandemic,
so
the
risk
that
we
really
should
consider
are
there
was
a
stronger
employment
recovery
coming
out
of
the
pandemic
than
was
predicted
in
the
Baseline
model,
so
that
could
inflate
some
of
the
population
growth
that
was
shown
in
the
earlier
years
of
the
projections.
Housing
availability
is
a
potential
limiting
factor
that
is
not
considered
in
the
model.
F
Therefore,
the
growth
projections
may
not
be
realistic
if
counties
do
not
have
the
housing
to
support
that
population,
the
model
may
not
be
entirely
predicting
employee
commuting
patterns
which
can
affect
the
population
distribution
among
neighboring
counties,
especially
in
the
rural
areas.
The
model
does
attempt
to
forecast
international
migration,
but
this
is
greatly
dependent
on
policy.
That's
set
at
the
national
level,
so
that
has
to
be
taken
in
context
through
a
20-year
series
of
forecasts.
F
Likewise,
fluctuations
in
domestic
migration
patterns
should
be
considered
when
interpreting
the
projections
and,
of
course,
as
I've
said
several
times
already,
the
lingering
effects
from
the
pandemic
there's
also
threat
of
global
conflict
resource
limitations,
economic
volatility.
Those
are
all
factors
that
will
certainly
have
impacts
to
long-term
population
forecasting
that
are
not
yet
fully
understood.
F
So
that
was
my.
My
brief
presentation
I'd
be
happy
to
hear
any
questions
that
any
members
of
The
Forum
may
have.
F
F
The
slide
for
this
presentation
is
outside
the
the
broader
economic
Forum
deck
we've
it's
one.
Second,
while
we
get
the
presentation
pulled
up
here,.
F
Good
morning,
good
morning,
chair
Rosenthal,
thank
you
for
the
opportunity
to
be
here
today.
Brian
Gordon
principal
with
a
plot
analysis
for
the
record
I
have
looks
like
my
presentation
is
up
and
loaded,
so
I
will
hit
play
on
there
and
I'm,
assuming
it's
displaying
on
the
screen,
both
here
and
up
in
Northern
Nevada.
F
So
the
the
request
that
came
through
to
our
office
was
to
discuss
what's
happening
in
the
broader
economy,
slash
job
market,
so
I've
got
a
section
of
my
presentation
that
I
think
Mr
Schmidt
had
just
walked
through,
which
was
very
informative
and
useful
for
your
purposes.
So
I
probably
won't
dwell
too
much
on
that
particular
topic.
I
also
have
some
information
for
you
today,
as
it
relates
to
what's
happening
in
the
residential
Market,
what's
happening
in
the
commercial
real
estate
markets.
F
I
think
that
is
the
the
primary
objective
here,
as
it
relates
to
construction
activity
and
potentially
property
taxes
and
other
fun
stuff
that
you're
evaluating
as
part
of
this
process,
and
then
we've
got
some
information
in
terms
of
major
Investments
that
are
happening
here
in
southern
Nevada.
That
may
be
useful
just
to
give
some
indication
as
to
the
potential
expansion
of
the
the
property
tax
base
and
and
other
broader
investments
in
the
local
economy.
F
Like
I
said,
Mr
Schmidt
had
walked
through
pretty
good
detail.
What
is
happening
in
the
job
market
here,
I.
Don't
think
I
really
need
to
spend
a
whole
lot
of
time.
We
do
have
a
number
of
sides
and
I
realize
your
agenda
is
pretty
packed
and
so
I'll
try
to
keep
my
comments
pretty
brief
here,
as
as
I
walk
through
some
of
these
elements,
but
I
think
you've.
You've
got
a
feel
for
all
of
all
of
these
I
think
there
was
just
a
couple
of
slides
that
may
be
helpful
here.
F
Specific
to
Southern
Nevada
Mr
Schmidt
talked
a
little
bit
about
the
performance
of
different
Industries
as
it
relates
to
the
job
market.
The
slide
I
have
on
the
screen,
for
you
here
is
really
designed
to
just
demonstrate
how
different
Industries
have
performed
relative
to
the
prior
Peak.
So
this
is
comparing
here
in
southern
Nevada
to
the
November
2019
time
frame,
which
was
that
pre-pandemic
peak
level
we're
essentially
back
to
that
off.
About
27
jobs,
but
you
get
the
idea
where
we've
seen
some
reshifting
or
reshuffling
within
the
economy,
trade,
transportation
and
utilities.
F
You
heard
about
warehousing
positions,
retail
related
positions,
that
was
where
we've
seen
the
bulk
of
the
growth
and
we've
seen
some
lagging
sectors
within
the
economy.
You'll
hear
a
little
bit
more
about
the
Leisure
and
hospitality
industry
from
Mr
Hill,
but
those
indicators
are
performing
relatively
well
and
recovering
at
a
relatively
robust
Pace,
but
we
haven't
seen
all
of
those
jobs
come
back
yet,
and
so
you
see
the
distribution
of
how
different
sectors
of
the
economy
have
performed
here,
specifically
in
southern
Nevada
unemployment
rates.
You
heard
a
lot
about
that.
F
Mr
Schmidt
did
refer
to
this
idea
about
the
number
of
job
openings
relative
to
the
number
of
people
that
are
looking
for
work
nationally,
there's
about
1.8
job
openings
for
every
person
that
is
actively
seeking
work.
That
ratio
is
a
little
bit
lower
here
in
the
state
of
Nevada.
I,
always
like
to
look
at
this.
This
trend
chart
in
terms
of
where
we've
seen
this
bump
in
terms
of
the
job
openings.
The
question
has
become
lately.
F
Those
were
some
high
points
relative
to
the
job
market.
I
think
where
there
seems
to
be
a
lot
of
interest
here
is
trying
to
understand
exactly
where
the
housing
market
is
positioned
here
in
southern
Nevada
and
what
the
expectations
might
look
like
on
a
go
forward
basis,
and
so
I've
got
a
handful
of
slides
here,
as
it
relates
to
the
residential
sector,
but
I
I'll,
probably
just
summarize
it
in
the
fact
that
we
have
seen
some
pretty
robust
price
appreciation
across
the
board
and
the
resale
market.
F
We've
seen
elevated
price
points
in
the
new
construction
market
for
a
number
of
reasons,
including
the
cost
of
development
activity,
both
land
labor,
as
well
as
the
materials
cost.
All
of
that
is
just
contributing
to
elevated
price
points.
Now,
we've
seen
a
pretty
dramatic
shift
here
in
the
last
few
months.
F
The
recent
increases
in
mortgage
interest
rates.
You
heard
a
little
bit
earlier
about
the
federal
funds
rate,
all
of
that
is
flowing
through
the
economy
and
we've
now
seen
some
upward
movement
and
mortgage
interest
rates,
and
this
is
playing
a
significant
role
in
the
housing
market
and
that
has
slowed
demand
dramatically.
I'll
walk
you
through
a
few
of
those
slides
but
I
think
the
reality
is
that
we've
seen
price
points
up
pretty
significantly.
A
lot
of
wealth
has
been
generated.
A
lot
of
equity
has
been
gained
by
homeowners.
F
F
So
we've
seen
these
sharp
increases,
we
are
seeing
some
settling
or
a
little
bit
of
a
pullback
in
terms
of
pricing,
and
so,
as
you
think,
forward
the
next
year
or
two
certainly
there's
some
give
back
that
that
may
be
there,
but
the
timing
of
that
may
be
slightly
offset
by
the
fact
that
we
have
seen
this
ramp
up
and
now
we're
seeing
a
little
bit
of
a
softness.
So
I'll
walk
you
through
some
of
the
trend
lines
that
hopefully
depict
some
of
that
for
you.
You
just
heard
Mr
Lawton
talking
about
population
growth.
F
The
reason
I
have
this
on
my
slide
is
more
people
coming
to
Southern
Nevada
essentially
translates
into
more
demand
for
housing.
These
are
the
the
year-over-year
changes
and
some
of
the
official
metrics
that
you
just
heard
about.
We
ranked
number
eight
Statewide
in
terms
of
overall
population
growth.
You
just
saw
the
forecast
for
where
the
market
is
headed.
We
do
expect
to
continue
to
see
folks
move
into
Southern
Nevada.
Specifically,
we
have
looked
at
some
more
near
time.
Near-Term
indicators,
things
like
the
number
of
drivers
license
surrenders.
F
These
are
the
number
of
people
that
go
into
the
local
Department
of
Motor
Vehicles
offices
exchange
their
out-of-state
driver's
license
to
get
a
local
ID.
We
track
that
over
time,
because
we
can
track
that
more
month
by
month,
a
little
bit
more
near
term.
What
you're
seeing
on
the
screen
is
about
78
000
people
in
the
last
12
months
have
exchanged
an
out-of-state
ID
for
a
local
ID.
That
tells
me
that
people
are
still
moving
here
and
moving
here
in
pretty
significant
numbers.
F
You
can
see
historically
on
the
chart
that
we
are
at
or
above
the
levels
we've
seen
for
the
better
part
of,
in
fact
more
than
a
decade,
and
so
that
tells
us
that
a
lot
of
folks
are
continuing
to
migrate
in.
We
also
look
at
other
monthly
indicators
like
the
number
of
homes
that
are
connected
to
the
local
power
grid.
F
That
also
gives
an
indication
as
to
the
number
of
people
that
live
here
in
the
expansion
that's
taking
place
in
the
residential
Market
and
where
are
people
coming
from
four
out
of
ten
are
migrating
in
from
California
no
surprises
there
I
see
some
heads
nodding.
Yes,
it's
again,
we
are
benefiting
from
what
is
happening
to
the
west
of
us.
Obviously,
a
higher
cost
of
living
we've
seen
a
lot
of
migration
at
the
onset
of
the
pandemic,
as
I
think
remote
work
has
become
more
commonplace.
F
I
think
Nevada
has
benefited
fitted
from
some
of
that,
but
historically
we
would
expect
to
see
about
a
third
of
the
people
migrating
into
Southern
Nevada
coming
from
California.
Those
Trends
are
continuing,
and
so
from
that
standpoint
we
have
this
steady
influx
of
folks
I.
Think
for
the
last
two
years,
California
has
actually
reported
net
out
migration.
F
And
then,
where
are
people
moving
to
this?
This
map
here
is
really
just
designed
to
demonstrate
how
the
market
has
built
out
over
time
here
in
southern
Nevada,
the
Las
Vegas
Valley.
F
All
of
the
growth
is
taking
place
around
that
periphery
of
the
valley,
where
we
tend
to
see
higher
land
costs,
master
planned,
Community
Development
along
the
215
Beltway,
again
premiums
across
the
board
in
terms
of
that
underlying
real
estate,
and
that
has
translated
into
higher
costs
for
residential
development
activity,
which
ultimately
is
borne
by
the
home
buyers
in
the
new
construction
Market,
a
heat
map
relative
to
where
that
development
is
taking
place
and
some
of
the
larger
subdivisions,
if
you
will
that
are
actively
selling
homes
today,
again
around
the
215
Beltway
up
and
starting
really
up
in
North
Las
Vegas,
the
Valley
Vista
master
plan
Community
around
to
the
Northwest,
the
you
have,
the
sky,
Canyon
Community
up
to
the
Northwest
Summerlin
around
the
215
Beltway
and
then
into
Henderson.
F
Home
price
trends
have,
as
I
mentioned,
skyrocketed
as
of
late
we've
seen
a
significant
amount
of
demand.
These
are
the
data
sourced
to
the
Las
Vegas
Realtors.
So
these
are
your
recent
primarily
resale
transactions
that
are
taking
place
single
family
as
well
as
attached,
product
or
condos,
and
townhouses
they've
been
up
dramatically.
You
see
they're
up
about
11
percent
year.
Over
year
we
saw
home
prices
slip
month
to
month
for
about
three
months:
June
July
August.
They
slid
a
little
bit
here
in
September.
F
They
flattened
out
again
month
to
month,
but
we
were
up
dramatically
since
the
onset
of
the
pandemic
in
March
of
2020
we're
up
about
40
percent
in
terms
of
the
single
family
home
price,
and
if
we
look
to
five
years
ago,
we're
up
about
70
percent,
so
I
I
think
the
the
punch
line
in
here
is
that
there
is
a
lot
of
equity
that
homeowners
have
generated
over
the
last
several
years,
and
the
fact
is
that
if
we
give
back,
we
let
some
air
out,
if
you
will
over
over
the
next
couple
of
of
years,
whether
that's
5,
10,
15
or
20
percent.
F
The
majority
of
home
owners
are
probably
still
ahead
of
the
game
in
terms
of
their
relative
Equity
position.
Some
of
these
things
this
this
commentary-
I,
guess
that
I'm
providing
to
you
in
some
of
these
data
points
is
really
to
suggest
that
we
don't
expect
to
see
massive
Fallout,
like
we
did
during
the
0809
and
2010
time
frame.
The
global
financial
crisis
that
that
environment
was
much
different.
Borrowers
were
much
more
leveraged.
F
They
had
very
little
equity
in
the
majority
of
the
properties
that
were
out
there
and
so
I
think
today's
environment
is
much
more
stable
as
it
relates
to
how
individual
consumers
sit
relative
to
to
their
homes.
I'll
walk
you
through
some
mortgage
related
data
here
as
well,
but
I
do
think
that
the
I
think
that
borrowers
have
put
real
Equity
into
their
homes
when
they
acquired
their
properties.
F
Given
some
changes
in
The,
Lending,
environment
I
also
think
that
people
have
been
paying
down
down
on
an
amortizing
loan
for
some
period
of
time,
not
something
that
necessarily
was
happening
during
the
prior
boom
bust
cycle.
So
I
like,
where
we're
positioned
from
that
standpoint
that
there's
some
increased
stability
there,
that
that
homeowners
are
in
a
much
more
stable
position
and
that
really
there's
some
some
room
to
give
back
without
putting
people
into
a
strained
situation.
It's
maybe
the
best
way
to
say
that
mortgage
interest
rates
I
said
this.
F
At
the
outset,
I
mean
this
is
what's
driving
today's
environment
I
we
updated
these
data.
Just
as
of
yesterday,
the
latest
weekly
data
suggests
that
the
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rates
at
about
6.7
percent
came
down
a
little
bit
in
the
last
week,
so
depending
on,
where
you're
at
with
the
financial
institution.
F
But
you
get
the
idea
that
mortgage
rates
have
more
than
doubled
during
the
past
year,
and
this
is
really
designed
to
show
you,
the
slope
and
the
at
the
pace
at
which
mortgage
interest
rates
have
increased,
so
they're
up
dramatically
three
and
a
half
points
in
the
last
year.
This
is
what's
really
creating
the
concern
in
the
market.
This
is
having
a
real
impact,
somebody
that
was
looking
for
a
house
a
year
ago.
F
Let's
just
say
they
were
looking
at
a
half
a
million
dollar
mortgage
and
somebody
that's
looking
at
a
half
a
million
dollar
mortgage
today.
Their
mortgage
monthly
mortgage
payment
would
be
about
a
thousand
dollars
more
a
month
in
today's
environment,
just
purely
based
on
mortgage
interest
rates
relative
to
where
they
were
a
year
ago,
12
000
dollars
a
year.
You
get
the
math,
but
that's
that's
a
pretty
significant
jump
at
the
same
time.
F
Maybe
somebody
a
year
ago
that
was
looking
for
a
home
and
was
going
to
borrow
a
half
a
million
and
now
today
they're
looking
at
that
same
looking
at
a
similar
property.
Their
buying
power
has
diminished.
If
you
want
to
look
at
it
in
the
inverse
to
keep
that
mortgage
payment
the
same
amount,
they
can
only
afford
about
two-thirds
of
the
price
of
the
house
relative
to
a
year
ago.
So
it
is
having
an
effect
on
folks
and
then
I.
F
Think
some
of
the
broader
economic
uncertainty
that
you
all
are
familiar
with
is
also
playing
into
people's
mindsets
and
giving
them
a
little
bit
of
pause,
and
so
we've
seen
sales
activity
drop
by
half
in
some
of
the
more
recent
months.
We're
seeing
new
construction
is
slowing.
The
number
of
sales
are
slowing,
we're
seeing
increased
rates
of
cancellations.
Given
many
of
these
market
dynamics
that
are
taking
place,
resale
home
closings
I
mentioned,
are
starting
to
slow.
F
The
listing
activity,
I
think
is
another
one
to
point
out
with
regard
to
the
offerings
that
are
out
there
for
people
that
are
looking
for
homes,
we
have
seen
inventory
levels
go
up
pretty
significantly
we're
hovering
around
10
000
units
in
the
multiple
listing
service
here
in
southern
Nevada.
F
Yes,
it
is
much
higher
than
it
was
I
think
we've
all
had
to
become
accustomed
to
the
fact
that
homes
would
go
on
the
market
and
sell
in
days,
not
weeks,
not
months,
and
so
everybody
became
used
to
that
much
like
they
got
used
to
two
and
a
half
and
three
percent
mortgage
interest
rates.
Those
those
that
environment
is
not
here
to
stay,
but
we've
seen
it
jump
a
little
bit,
but
we're
still
not
out
of
range
of.
B
Or
a
three
and
a
half
percent,
or
even
a
four
percent
mortgage
interest
rate,
the
the
likelihood
of
them
selling
that
house
to
buy
another
house
and
get
in
to
a
home
with
a
six
or
a
seven
or
potentially
higher
mortgage
interest
rate
in
the
future
is
pretty
limited.
So
I
think
we're
going
to
see
less
movement.
B
I
think
you'll
see
less
homes
coming
on
the
market
as
a
result
of
that,
and
so
I
think
that
provides
an
opportunity
for
increased
stability
as
opposed
to
what
we
saw
during
the
prior
boom
bust
cycle
of.
G
B
Mid-2000S,
effective
months
of
inventory
is
around
four
months
when
you
look
at
the
number
of
sales
relative
to
the
number
of
homes
that
are
on
the
market,
but
you
can
see
where
we
were
during
the
pandemic
in
early
2020,
you
can
see
where
we
were
at
during
the
2019
time
frame
and
2016.
These
are
not
that
unusual
relative
to
where
we've
been.
It
just
feels
a
lot
different
because
we
were
so
low
in
terms
of
the
number
of
homes
on
the
market
by
Price.
B
You
get
the
idea
lower
home
prices,
priced
homes
are
in
higher
demand
and
dwell
too
much
on
that
negative
equity.
This
is
one
thing
I
do
want
to
mention.
People
are
in
a
much
stronger
position
than
they
were
before,
so
very
few
folks
are
upside
down
on
their
mortgage.
B
If
you
will,
that
provides
us
some
comfort
again
that
there's
some
some
room
in
there
should
prices
continue
to
adjust,
and
if
we
look
at
what
was
happening
in
the
mid
to
late
2000s
in
terms
of
the
distributions
of
the
types
of
loans
that
were
taking
place,
you
can
see
that
about
40.
H
Percent
of
loans
were
adjustable
rate
type
mortgages.
We
all
remember
how
that
played
out
today.
It's
about
one
percent,
so
again,
more
stability,
longer
term
fixed-rate
mortgages
are
being
locked
in
today
and
if
we
look
at
the
distribution
just
nationally
about
three
quarters
of
all
loans
are
still
under
four
percent.
H
So
again,
a
comfort
level
that
assuming
folks
continue
to
have
jobs
and
be
gainfully
employed
that
there
is
more
modest
risk
of
Fallout
as
it
relates
to
the
housing
market
defaults
again,
are
relatively
low,
lowest
we've
seen
in
a
couple
of
decades,
the
Housing
Opportunity
index,
which
is
just
a
fancy
term
for
affordability,
about
22
percent
of
the
typical
household
here
in
southern
Nevada
kind
of
forward
the
typical
median
home
price.
Again
this
in
the
last
quarter,
was
dramatically
affected
by
mortgage
interest
rates.
H
That's
why
you're
seeing
a
pretty
steep
decline
there
if
prices
adjust,
we
should
see
that
come
back
up
a
little
bit
if
mortgage
rates
settle
in
or
we
see
any
declines
there
that
could
that
could
have
that
affordability
index
come
back
up,
but
you
see
where
we
were
during
the
prior
cycle
about
13
percent
of
families
could
afford
the
median
home
price
back
then
so,
not
great,
but
home
price
adjustments.
May
moderate
some
of
these.
H
These
levels
that
we're
seeing
here
the
apartment
market
I'll
just
flip
through
a
couple
of
sides,
we
will
continue
to
see
Investments
being
made
in
the
apartment
Market.
That
is
the
the
expectation
multi-family
product
has
been
in
high
demand,
although
rent
are
also
High
about
12
000
units
over
the
next
five
years.
H
Is
the
expectation
here
in
southern
Nevada
I'll
jump
to
the
commercial
markets
to
keep
things
moving,
if
that
makes
sense
or
any
questions
on
the
housing
market
actually
just
real
quick
before
we
move
to
the
commercial
Market
I
just
wanted
to
check
and
see
if
anything,
if
any
of
the
members
had
a
question
on
the
residential
Market,
this
kind
of
just
kind
of
bifurcate
the
subjects
everybody
good-
none
here,
maybe
maybe
I-
can
make
a
comment.
H
A
question
now
is
that,
as
you
well
know
the
one
of
the
taxes
we
have
to
provide
an
instrument
for
his
real
property
transfer
attacks,
which
is
largely
governed
by
the
residential
side.
Since
they're
the
commercial
side
have
ways
of
getting
around
that,
so
they
don't
have
to
pay
it,
but
the
the
question
I
asked
before
you
know
if
you
were
trying
to
look
into
the
future
now
on
this
housing
market,
you
know
which
we
know-
we've
got
competing
interests
here.
We've
got
to
rise
in
price.
H
We've
got
a
rise
in
interest
rates.
We've
got
a
right
now
at
least
a
diminished
Market.
Now
we
we've
got
two
and
a
half
years,
so
we've
got
to
see
into
the
future.
If
you
were
going
to
give
a
guess
or
an
estimate
as
to
what's
going
to
happen,
what
would
you
say?
Yeah?
Thank
you,
Mark
member
love,
it
I
would
say,
as
it
relates
to
the
real
property
transfer
tax,
my
senses
that
you
could
expect
some
level
of
slow
down
there
for
a
couple
of
reasons.
H
One
I
just
walked
you
through
mortgage
interest
rates
and
what
that's
doing
today
in
terms
of
the
Slowdown
and
that
we're
seeing
from
a
demand
standpoint
in
terms
of
the
volume
of
sales.
I,
also
think
that
at
the
onset
of
the
covid-19
pandemic,
we
had
a
lot
of
households
that
were
sitting
in
their
houses
all
day
and
all
night
and
decided
now
was
the
time
to
upgrade
or
move
up.
H
We
needed
more
space,
we
didn't
like
the
finishes
in
our
home,
and
so
you
saw
a
lot
of
folks
that
also
had
the
opportunity
to
buy
a
house,
because
mortgage
interest
rates
were
so
low
that
decided
to
advance
their
home
buying
decision.
Maybe
they
were
on
a
path
we're
going
to
look
at
a
new
home
for
them
in
the
next
three
or
five
years
out,
then,
all
of
a
sudden
everybody's
hunkered
down
they're
buying
power
increased
as
a
result
of
the
lower
mortgage
interest
rates.
H
So
maybe
they
purchased
a
home
in
the
next
six
or
12
12
months,
as
opposed
to
waiting
three
or
five
years.
So
this
is
a
long
way
of
me,
saying
I
think
we
pulled
a
lot
of
that
demand
forward.
I
think
a
lot
of
people
moved
earlier
than
they
might
have
moved
otherwise
and
now
they're
in
their
home
and
I
referred
to
it
already.
The
fact
that
mortgage
interest
rates
are
up
they're
locked
in
at
a
lower
cost
of
borrowing.
The
likelihood
of
them
moving
again
is
probably
pretty
limited.
H
Three
quarters
of
folks
are
at
a
mortgage
interest
rate
of
under
four
percent,
so
my
sense
is:
we've
moved
a
lot
of
that
demand
forward
and
that
we
won't
continue
to
see
those
those
numbers
in
terms
of
the
turnover,
if
you
will,
that
generates
the
real
property
transfer
tax
continue
to
increase
going
forward.
I
I
would
probably
make
the
argument
that
it's
more
likely
to
slow
as
opposed
to
increase,
is
how
I
would
tend
to
think
about
that
from
a
residential
standpoint.
H
I
was
going
to
ask:
do
you
see
any
impact
I've
been
watching
as
people
are
pulling
building
permits
and
they're
transferring
it
over
to
build
for
rent
versus
putting
them
on
the
market?
Do
you
see
that's
kind
of
taking
up
a
bigger
and
bigger
share?
Which
means
we
don't
see.
The
transfer
talks
is
that
something
you're
seeing
or
is
it
more
just
a
newspaper
thing,
Vice,
chair,
Lewis
I,
would
say
that
it's
happening
it
is.
H
It
is
happening,
obviously
you're
very
in
tune
to
that
and
you're,
seeing
it
I
I
think
Builders
are
becoming
much
more
creative.
Obviously
they
have
a
pipeline
of
work.
We're
seeing
cancellations
rates
increase.
Do
they
continue
to
build
out
these
properties?
H
I
think
the
answer
is
yes:
if
they've,
if
they're
underway
and
I
think
they're
looking
to
to
feed
the
machine,
if
you
will
to
keep
their
business
businesses
moving
forward,
and
so
whatever
alternatives
are
out
there
that
allow
them
to
do
that,
I
think
converting
for
sale
product
to
for
rent
product
is
a
reality
and
I.
Think
a
number
of
Builders
nationally
have
said
that
they're
actively
pursuing
that.
We
have
heard
anecdotally
from
some
local
builders
that
they
are
also
exploring
those
options
in
what
numbers
those
happen.
H
I'm
I'm
not
entirely
sure
but
I-
do
think.
That's
a
a
viable
path
for
a
lot
of
the
builders
and
yes,
that
would
limit
the
number
of
homes
that
are
transferring
title
potentially
at
some
point
and
then
the
other
question
and
I
just
I've
never
really
has
seen
it
broken
out
during
Cove
I
like
to
follow
transactions,
I
guess,
but
during
covet
in
the
last
two
years,
I've
noticed
a
lot
of
apartment
complexes,
Changing
Hands,
where
they
actually
did
pay
the
real
property
transfer
tax.
H
To
the
extent
of
you
might
see
one
a
week
of
a
40
million
dollar
transaction
as
these
funds
come
in
from
California
New
York
Chicago.
Wherever
do
you
think,
were
those
transactions
are
kind
of
I
mean
with
the
12
000
new
units?
Some
will
probably
sell
to
investors,
but
do
you
think
we're
going
to
see
many
more
of
those
or
do
you
think
everything's
traded
hands?
H
Look
a
lot
of
those
properties,
have
traded,
hands
and
I.
Think
we'll
see
fewer
transactions.
I
mean
we're
hearing,
the
price
points
are
coming
down
on
the
investor
side,
I
mean
rents,
are
still
elevated
and
we're
seeing
some
adjustments
for
for
renters
themselves,
but
from
the
investors
side
we're
seeing
some
some
of
that
compression
there
some
slowdown.
H
If
you
will,
you
know,
cap
rates
are
adjusting
and
we've
heard
deals
that
have
anecdotally
that
have
been
under
contract
and
have
seen
price
adjustments
during
that
escrow
period
and
buyers
and
sellers
are
becoming
more
creative
to
to
get
deals
done.
But
yes,
the
volume
that
has
taken
place
historically
is
probably
likely
to
slow
and
so
to
a
member
Levitt's
Point.
Yes,
I
think
there
are
also
some
potential
for
slowdown
on
the
real
property
transfer
tax
side
there
as
well.
Thank
you
that
was
kind
of
what
my
guesses
were.
Thank
you.
H
I
just
have
a
question,
so
everything
you
said
makes
complete
sense
with
you
know,
probably
a
pull
forward
of
moves.
People
are
locked
in
with
the
very
low
rates,
all
those
good
things
indicating
that
there
would
be
a
Slowdown
I'm,
just
curious
about
the
opportunity
to
expand
for
for
new
homeowners
right.
So
you
talked
about
big
housing
developments,
plans
Suburban
areas
along
the
215
Beltway.
You
look
at
your
your
map
of
the
development
I
mean.
H
Obviously
it's
it's
spread
out
from
the
core
I
mean
geographically,
it
looks
like
there's
unlimited
land
right,
unlimited
space,
it's
Nevada,
there's
a
lot
of
undeveloped
land,
but
I
I
do
believe.
The
federal
government
owns
a
lot
of
that
land.
Is
there
a
barrier
geographically
to
continuing
to
expand
with
new
housing
projects
in
this
area?
H
Yes,
there
is
a
barrier.
We
have
this
de
facto
boundary
around
the
Las
Vegas
Urban
Las,
Vegas
Valley,
that
that
has
the
potential
to
limit
our
development
activity
over
the
longer
term.
Within
your
forecasting,
Horizon,
probably
less
of
an
issue,
but
there
is
certainly
a
a
limitation
to
the
amount
of
land
that
exists.
H
We've
actually
done
some
work
on
this
topic
for
the
Southern
Nevada
homebuilders
Association,
and
took
a
look
at
how
the
valley
has
historically
built
out
how
much
vacant
lands
exist
within
the
urban
Valley
and
we're
looking
at
about
11
years
of
effective
inventory.
If
we
were
to
build
out
at
the
expectation
of
how
the
the
projections
as
it
relates
to
population
growth
that
you've
you've
all
just
heard
this
morning,
and
so
to
the
extent
we
build
out
at
that
pace,
and
we
build
out
the
densities
that
we've
historically
built
out
at
we're.
H
H
Thank
you
for
questions
before
we
go
to
the
commercial
Market,
no
questions.
Thank
you
great.
Thank
you.
I
won't
spend
as
much
time
on
the
commercial
markets.
I
will
walk
you
through
just
a
handful
of
the
key
statistics
as
it
relates
to
office
the
office
Market.
The
industrial
Market,
the
retail
real
estate
market
I
just
have
these
Trend
charts.
To
give
you
a
feel
for
how
things
have
been
performing
again
big
picture.
We
have
continued
to
see
Investments
being
made
in
each
of
each
segment
within
the
commercial
real
estate
markets.
H
This
is
your
inventory,
the
the
million
of
square
feet
in
each
one
of
those,
the
industrial
Market
you're,
going
to
notice
on
each
one
of
these
slides
is
going
to
be
the
the
one
that
catches
your
eye
each
time.
This
is
really
where
we've
seen
the
bulk
of
the
investment,
the
bulk
of
the
demand-
and
this
is
really
where
the
market
has
been.
H
We
talked
about
the
job
market,
warehousing
distribution,
types
of
activities
that
have
been
taking
place
as
a
result
of
the
onset
of
covid-19
that
has
been
generating
significant
demand
for
warehousing
and
distribution,
types
of
commercial
real
estate.
Vacancy
rates
have
been
down
across
the
board.
We're
seeing
demand
outpacing
new
Supply
we've
seen
lease
rates
continue
to
escalate
average
asking
rents
for
the
available
product
has
continued
to
increase
over
time
again,
but
over
the
long
run
they
have
not
been
that
dramatic.
H
Two
to
three
percent
per
year
on
average,
depending
on
the
mix
of
the
product,
but
nonetheless
the
demand
has
generally
been
there
and
we've
seen
some
pretty
stable
development
activity
relative
to
the
demand
side
of
the
equation:
absorption,
essentially,
the
net
demand
that
takes
place
each
year.
This
is
the
big
one
in
the
middle.
H
This
the
scales
are
all
different,
but
industrial
has
demanded
over
9
million
square
feet
of
product
in
the
last
12
months
alone,
so
we're
seeing
a
significant
amount
of
net
move-ins
into
industrial
product,
and
then
the
numbers
for
office
and
and
Retail
have
been
much
more
modest.
The
number
of
completions
new
product
coming
to
the
market,
about
7
million
square
feet
of
new
industrial
product
coming
online
in
the
last
12
months,
and
only
a
couple
hundred
thousands
square
feet
of
office
or
retail
in
the
in
the
last
year,
development
activity.
H
This
really
just
gives
you
a
feel
for
the
pipeline
of
future
development
activity.
You
can
see
the
darker
areas
are:
are
the
Investments
that
are
actively
under
construction
today
and
then
the
planned
activity
as
the
Shaded
area
above
that,
but
you
still
have
over
10
million
square
feet
of
industrial
product
that
is
being
constructed
today
that
will
come
to
Market
over
the
next
12
to
24
months.
Retail
has
been
much
more
measured
that
has
been
relatively
stable
and
the
office
Market
you've
driven
around
the
215
Beltway
in
southern
Nevada.
H
H
H
H
You
know
in
previous
recessions,
where
we
have
a
little
different
mix
in
the
past,
so
to
speak.
That's
what
I'm
I'm
trying
to
get
her.
You
know
somewhat
of
handle
on
any
way.
If
you
feel
what
would
happen
if
we,
if,
if
the
general
expectation
is
a
recession
of
some
kind,
how
would
we
respond
to
that
compared
to
the
rest
of
the
country,
I
suppose,
based
on
what
we
see
happening
here
now,
yeah,
that's
a
great
question:
I
guess
the
way
I
would
tend
to
think
about.
H
It
is
what
what
we
saw
during
the
height
of
the
covid-19
pandemic,
and
how
did
the
state
perform
I
think
I
think
you're
grappling
with
really
two
ends
of
the
state.
The
northern
portion
of
the
state
responded
or,
or
was
impacted,
maybe
is
a
better
way
to
say
it
was
impacted
a
little
bit
differently.
I
think
they
have.
They
have
a
much
more
Diversified
economic
base
in
Northern
Nevada,
as
opposed
to
here
in
southern
Nevada,
where
we're
sitting
today
and
I
think
they
benefited
from
that.
H
We've
seen
significant
investments
in
the
manufacturing
sector
up
there
that
you
heard
about
earlier
that
has
been
driving
a
lot
of
the
economic
growth
in
the
northern
portion
of
the
state.
They
are
less
dependent
on
tourism.
It's
just
the
makeup
of
the
mix
of
the
employers
and
and
the
employees
in
the
northern
portion
of
the
state.
H
The
core
tourism
industry
is
is
Paramount
here
in
southern
Nevada,
one
out
of
four
jobs
are
tied
directly
to
the
tourism
industry,
and
that
has
what
has
allowed
Southern
Nevada
to
continue
to
prosper
and
expand
and
has
been
a
phenomenal.
B
Driver
of
the
economy
here
in
southern
Nevada
and
I-
don't
think
we
get
away
from
that,
but
but
that
industry
is
somewhat
dependent
on
discretionary.
H
Spending
nationally
and
internal
nationally,
and
so
to
the
extent
there's
a
national
slowdown.
Sure
that
has
the
a
potential
to
affect
what
happens
more
dramatically
here
in
southern
Nevada,
as
opposed
to
in
the
northern
portion
of
the
state,
and
so
that
is
something
I
think
we
all
need
to
be
mindful
of
and
how
we
respond
to
that.
But
within
the
tourism
industry
and
I
feel
silly.
H
Even
making
these
comments
when
Mr
Hill
is
here
and
going
to
be
speaking
to
you
shortly,
but
within
the
industry,
I
think
there
has
been
a
lot
of
diversification
as
well.
I'm
sure
he's
going
to
talk
about
special
events
and
sporting
related
activities
and
all
of
the
things
that
the
resort
operators
have
done.
H
H
This
last
section,
I'm
sorry,
was
there
a
question.
I
did
did
have
one
question:
well,
actually,
two
questions
so
as
we're
looking
at.
You
know
this
growth,
that's
obviously
diversifying
you
know
our
economy
a
little
bit
more
here
in
southern
Nevada,
I'm,
just
wondering
from
a
zoning
and
just
just
space.
Some
other
questions
you
answered
on
the
housing
piece.
C
Any
of
these
spaces,
specifically
industrial,
because
that's
what
we're
seeing
a
lot
of
the
growth
are
you
seeing
any
of
that?
Is
there
any
Trend
that
we're
going
to
see
at
some
point
where
we,
you
know,
run
out
of
space
in
order
to
grow
with
the
demand?
That's
coming!
That's
my
first
question
and
I'll:
let
you
answer
that
one
I'll
follow
up
with
the
next
one
great!
Thank
you,
member
Chrome!
Yes,
that
11
years
of
effective
land
availability
that
I
talked
about
was
for.
H
The
entire
market
and
focused
on
all
property
types,
residential
and
non-residential
development
activities,
so
that
gives
you
a
perspective
there
I
do
think
in
the
in
the
industrial
market,
for
example,
that
you're
referring
to
I.
My
sense
is
that
there
are
some
pockets
of
potential
development
areas.
Obviously,
you've
heard
a
lot
about
Apex
to
the
North
and
North
Las
Vegas
they're,
making
massive
Investments
there
in
infrastructure,
and
there
is
some
capacity
to
develop
out
there.
H
You,
if
you
hear
a
lot
about
to
the
South
and
some
potential
corridors
being
opened
up
there,
Wes
Henderson
out
by
your
neck
of
the
woods
where
you're,
probably
sitting
today
has
some
additional
expansion
opportunities
there.
So
there's
some
Pockets
throughout
the
Southern
Nevada
Market.
That
would
allow
the
the
non-residential
development
activity
to
continue
but
again,
I
think
in
the
near
term,
there's
the
capacity
there
as
we
start
to
get
further
out
on
that
time.
Horizon.
We
need
to
be
thinking
about
what
that
looks
like
a
decade
plus
out.
H
That's
it:
okay,
thanks
and
then
my
other
question
is
I'm
trying
to
marry
up
this
growth
that
we're
seeing
here
in
these
different
sectors:
office.
Industrial
retail,
with
with
wage
rates
and
and
I,
don't
know
this
answer
as
we
start
to
see
an
increase
in
the
industrial
piece
you
know.
H
C
Makes
sense
yeah?
No,
it
makes
perfect
sense.
I
I
think
it's
a
national
phenomenon.
We
are
saying
wages
rise,
pretty
dramatically
and
I.
Think
in
in
the
state
of
Nevada.
We
are
experiencing
similar
trend
lines.
The
demand
for
employees
is
there.
The
shortage
of
the
worker
is
also
persisting,
and
so
that
imbalance.
H
Is
just
continuing
to
drive
wages
North,
specifically
within
the
office
and
Industrial
and
Retail
sectors?
Yes,
I
think
we're
seeing
it
up
upward
movement.
There
I
think
we've
probably
seen
a
faster
pace
of
wage
growth
in
a
number
of
those
sectors,
particularly
industrial.
When
you
bring
on
9
million
square
feet
of
product
that
is
immediately
leased
up
and
you
have
employees
occupying
those
buildings
filling
those.
C
Jobs
has
has
been
pretty
challenging
and
I
think
we've
seen
folks
transition
within
Industries
and
some
have
the
ability
or
the
wherewithal
or
the
willingness
to
to
increase
wages,
and
so
yes,
I
think.
We've
we've
seen
that
pretty
dramatically
in
those
particular
sectors
and
so
I
think
we'll
we'll
continue
to
see
that.
D
Okay,
great
I
know
we've
taken
too
much
of
your
time
here
today.
The
last
section
was
really
just
talking
about
notable
Investments
here
in
southern
Nevada
I'm
not
going
to
go
through
these
slides
really
at
all
I
just
wanted
to
let
you
know
we're
tracking
about
27.
H
Billion
dollars
worth
of
major
projects
in
the
development
pipeline,
tourism
related
non-tourism,
related
infrastructure,
related
manufacturing,
warehouses,
all
of
those
types
of
things,
transportation
and
infrastructure.
Clearly,
the
tourism
industry
is
making
massive
investments
in
southern
Nevada.
You
have
major
venues
going
up
MSG
sphere,
you
have
the
Fountain
Blue
Project
moving
forward.
You
have
major
events
coming
into
town
things
like
Formula
One
that
are
making
pretty
significant
Investments.
You
have
all
sorts
of
activity
taking
place
through
southern
Nevada
about
11
to
12
billion
dollars
of
that
number
is
really
actively
under
construction.
H
Thank
you,
madam
chair
members
of
The
Forum
for
the
record
Fred
Simon,
director
of
the
University
Center
for
economic
development
at
the
University
of
Nevada
Reno
pitch
heading
for
Brian
bonafon
program
manager
with
the
University's
Center
for
regional
studies.
Brian
couldn't
be
here
today,
but
he
asked
me
to
run
through
his
presentation.
E
Outlook
for
the
Northern
Nevada
economy,
with
particular
focus
in
Washoe
County
and
the
Reno
Sparks
MSA
for
the
Reno
Sparks
MSA
over
the
last
year
at
last
couple
years,
actually
including
the
two
years
of
the
pandemic.
Employment
growth
has
really
been
driven
by
individual
industry
sectors,
kind
of
at
the
top
wage
range
manufacturing,
Transportation,
warehousing
utilities,
construction
and.
H
Professional
business
services,
each
paying
wages
that
are
significantly
greater
than
the
average
wage
for
the
entire
region,
saw
the
strongest
gains
in
terms
of
total
employment
growth,
not
as
a
surprise.
Lingering
impacts
of
the
pandemic
have
continued
to
depress
employment,
specifically
in
the
Leisure
and
Hospitality
sector,
as
well
as
the
wholesale
trade
and
government
sector
for
the
government
sector
really
impacts
to
budgets
as
a
result
of
decreased
economic
activity.
H
Being
still
relatively
low,
one
of
the
major
challenges
facing
economic
growth
and
continued
expansion
of
the
Northern
Nevada
region
will
be
the
availability
of
a
Workforce
as
most
individuals,
you
know
who
can
be
employed,
are
currently
employed
or
are
just
switching
between
individual
positions.
A
significant
factor
driving
economic
growth
as
well
as
population
growth
throughout
the
Northern
Nevada
area,
but
specifically
for
Washoe
County,
is
net
in
migration
of
individuals
moving.
I
To
support
those
industry
sectors
that
have
become
major
drivers
of
economic
activity
within
the
region.
There
are
also
just
before
that
age
range
of
individuals
who
are
tending
to
start
to
make
their
first
major
home
purchase
so
again
as
more
individuals
between
the
ages
of
20
in
29
continued
to
move
into
the
Washoe
County
area
that
will
likely
continue
to
fuel
demand
for
housing
as
well
as
well
as
or
including
both
rental
properties
as
and
single-family
resident
owner
occupied
housing,
as
well.
I
Certainly
counties
along
that
Interstate
80
Corridor
continue
to
be
major
drivers
of
immigration
into
Washoe
County
for
the
Washoe
County
area,
as
well
as
other
parts
of
Northern
Nevada
this
year
just
gives
a
a
pretty
General
overview
of
population
growth
over
the
last
20
years.
I
You
can
see
that
in
the
period
between
2000
and
2010,
the
Washoe
County
area
grew
at
an
average
annual
rate
of
about
2.2
percent
that
has
come
down
in
the
last
10
years,
growing
at
an
average
annual
rate
of
about
1.4
percent
between
2010
and
2020..
I
Moving
forward
again,
continued
growth
and
relatively
high
paying
industry
sectors
in
Washoe,
County,
neighboring,
Story,
County
and
other
parts
of
the
Northwestern
Nevada
region
will
likely
continue
to
encourage
and
support
population
growth
of
about
1.5
percent
per
year.
Over
the
next
five
years,
and
based
upon
that
projected
population
growth,
we
could
potentially
see
Washoe
County
across
the
total
population,
Milestone
of
500
000
per
permanent
residents
sometime
between
now
and
the
end
of
2023..
I
This
year
just
shows
over
the
last
couple
of
years
overall
change
in
the
number
of
new
single-family
home
sale
activity
in
Washoe
County,
as
well
as
the
medium
new
home
sale
prices
for
each
year
of
the
last
five
or
so
years.
You
can
see
that
over
the
course
of
the
pandemic
in
2020
and
2021
new
home
sales
continued
the
year
over
year,
increase
in
the
number
of
new
sales
really
again
kind
of
continuing
that
recovery
from
the
Great
Recession.
I
But
it's
been
in
the
last
year,
2022
and
really
over
the
last
couple
of
months,
where
we've
seen
that
begin
to
decline
and
with
that
the
relatively
High
median
new
home
sale
price
for
homes
in
Washoe,
County
begin
to
decline
as
well.
A
number
of
factors
are
contributing
to
that.
I
Fsrs
was
the
real
driver
of
new
residential
supply
to
the
Washoe
County
housing
market,
where
new
multi-family
units
represented
a
relatively
small
percentage
of
new
residential
Supply
coming
to
the
market
post
Great
Recession
that
has
really
flipped
really
holding
true
through
to
2022,
where
new
multi-family
units
has
become
a
much
larger,
significant
driver
of
new
residential
units
coming
to
the
market
in
Washoe
County
part
of
that
again
likely
due
to
just
kind
of
a
shift
in
the
demand
patterns
as
a
result
of
a
different
population.
I
This
just
very
quickly
gives
you
a
general
idea
of
where
new
development
is
planned
for
the
Washoe
County
and
primarily
the
Reno
Sparks
area
over
the
next
year,
or
so
expect
a
significant
number
of
the
nearly
30
31
to
32
000,
approved
and
unbilled
units
of
both
single
family
and
multi-family
to
hit
the
market
moving
forward.
A
lot
of
that
growth
and
development.
I
Again
is
going
to
be
concentrated
in
the
North
Valleys
of
Reno,
the
Northern
parts
of
city
of
Sparks
in
into
unincorporated
Washoe
County,
as
well
as
into
the
South
Valley
area
and
areas
around
the
Verdi
area,
closer
to
the
California
border.
Here,
just
very
quickly.
New
listings
days
to
contract
and
active
listings
for
Washoe
County
again,
the
the
middle
curves,
green
and
red
really
are
the
two
years
of
the
pandemic
fairly
noisy
data.
I
What
we
are
starting
to
see,
especially
in
terms
of
new
listings
and
active
listings,
is
a
return
to
kind
of
pre-pandemic
behavior
in
the
existing
Home
Sales
Inventory
Market,
with
days
to
contract,
crack
starting
to
creep
up
again
again,
probably
being
impacted
by
availability
of
Supply,
as
well
as
increased
uncertainty
in
terms
of
interest
rates
and
mortgage
rates
moving
forward
for
existing
home
sales.
So
this
isn't,
you
know,
follows
a
very
similar
Trend
to
what
we've
seen
for
new
home
sales
for
the
Washoe
County
area
over
the
last
couple
of
years.
I
I
See
that
decrease
in
the
median
home
price
for
existing
home
sales
as
well
from
the
Washoe
County
assessor's
office.
Brian.
Just
wanted
me
to
pass
this
along
the
single
family
homes
with
non-primary
residence
tax
rates
continue
to
remain
fairly
stable
over
the
last
several
quarters
and
years
shifting
years
to
look
at
Trends
in
income
again,
given
that
a
significant
portion
of
new
job
creation
and
employment
is
being
fueled
by
high
relatively
High
wage
and
high
income
earning
industry
sectors
like
manufacturing,
transportation
and
Logistics
parts
that
have
helped
diversify
the
Northern
Nevada
economy.
I
A
fairly
robust
rates
over
the
last
several
years,
certainly
reaching
highs
in
2020
and
2021,
not
necessarily
a
surprise.
Given
you
know,
patterns
and
individual
consumer
Behavior
are
moving
towards
kind
of
Big
Ticket
purchases.
You
know
Home
Improvement
we're
still
seeing
that
increase
into
2022,
but
probably
likely
to
see
that
start
to
back
off
a
little
bit
as
people
allocate
more
and
more
of
their
household
income
to
experiential
consumption
travel
and
resuming
those
types
of
patterns
that
existed
prior
to
the
pandemic.
K
Center
of
Josiah
46
dollars
an
hour
and,
of
course
that
will
continue
to
help
support
economic
growth
and
even
diversification
throughout
the
region
as
well.
One
area
that
is,
of
course
becoming
a
bit
of
a
concern
in
the
Northwestern
portion
of
the
state
and
Washoe
County
in
particular.
There's
growing
concerns
over
home
price
affordability.
K
Here
you
can
see
a
home
price
affordability
index
for
both
households
with
1.2
wage
and
income
earners
versus
a
single
earner,
households
and
homes
by
industry
sector.
Moving
forward
again,
the
continued
increase
over
the
last
couple
of
years
and
home
prices
and
even
rents
as
we'll
see
in
the
next
slide,
has
really
resulted
in
fewer
and
fewer
individual
and
households
being
able
to
afford
more
expensive
housing
types.
K
Really
just
those
individuals
working
in
certain
industry
sectors
like
information
and
financial
activities,
still
afford
purchase
of
a
new
single
family
home
or
even
an
existing
single
family
home
based
upon
prevailing
meeting
sale
prices.
K
With
that
said,
those
Trends
May
begin
to
change
over
the
next
couple
years,
as
we
kind
of
project
forward
based
upon
a
model
that
Brian
has
put
together
through
the
center
for
regional
studies.
Here,
you
just
have
kind
of
an
overlay
of
two
models:
assuming
a
six
percent
annual
average
appreciation
in
home
prices,
home
sale
prices
versus
the
four
percent.
K
Over
the
last
several
years,
we
had
fallen
in
between
that
range
with
really
just
the
last
year,
or
so,
where
the
median
price
for
the
greater
Reno
Sparks
area
has
exceeded
that
modeled
range
really
again,
resulting
in
those
affordability,
questions
both
on
the
owner
occupied
and
the
runner
occupied
side.
Again
over
the
last
few
quarters
better
part
of
2022,
we
have
seen
the
median
home
price
and
corresponding
Lee
and
other
product
types
begin
to
decline
and
fall
back
within
the
range
and
that
will
likely
improve
affordability
indices
for
the
next
several
years.
K
Generally
speaking,
based
upon
the
analysis
that
Brian
has
put
together
through
the
center
for
regional
studies,
will
likely
again
see
the
market
kind
of
return
to
that
normal
range
of
less
than
5
000
jobs
being
added
per
year
within
the
region,
with
wage
increases
of
less
than
six
percent
per
year
and
relatively
low
inventory
again
falling
between
that
six
percent
and
four
percent
appreciation
rate.
K
That
said,
given
increasing
concerns
over
increased
entry,
inflationary
pressures
and
subsequent
rises
in
interest
rates
and
mortgage
rates,
there
certainly
is
a
possibility
of
kind
of
falling
into
the
the
stagflation
range
where
you
have
in
inflationary
pressures,
which
you
know
could
potentially
Trigger
or
lob
low
job
growth
rates
and
again
potentially
make
individual
product
just
simply
out
of
the
reach
of
of
individuals
moving
into
the
area
and
within
the
area
itself.
That
said
very
quickly
just
to
wrap
this
up.
K
It's
important
to
keep
in
mind
that
economic
activity
and
performance
in
Washoe
County
is
really
part
of
a
much
larger
economic
picture.
Continued
diversification
of
the
Northwestern
Nevada
region,
especially
in
growing
in
emerging
industry
sectors
such
as
lithium
production
and
value-added
processing
throughout
the
region,
even
beyond
the
Tahoe
Reno
industrial
center,
moving
further
east
along
the
I-80
Corridor
and
even
the
highway
50
Corridor
to
say,
Humboldt,
County
and
Churchill
County
further
south
into
Carson
City
and
along
the
highway
50
Corridor
in
Lion
County
in
the
Dayton
area.
K
Brian
again
just
wanted
to
to
share
this
with
all
of
you
again.
Northern
Nevada,
Northwestern
Nevada's
economy
is
particularly
well
suited
with
the
infrastructure
in
place.
The
industry
in
place
to
continue
to
take
advantage
of
this
trend,
which
is
again
the
continued
growth
of
electric
vehicles,
both
domestically
within
the
United
States,
but,
of
course,
across
the
world
itself.
K
To
take
advantage
of
growth
in
additional
green
energy,
and
specifically
geothermal
as
well
as
opportunities
in
solar
and
wind
very
quickly
in
in
terms
of
just
a
final
summary,
first
and
foremost
again,
increasing
mortgage
rates
for
our
region
will
likely
continue
to
reduce
or
depress
home
sale
volumes
over
the
next
several
years.
Kind
of
bring
bringing
the
market
back
to
a
more
normal
range.
K
New
home
builders
will
likely
again
continue
their
decrease
in
the
provision
of
supply
of
single-family
owner-occupied
units
in
favor
of
rental
or
multi-family
construction,
and
again,
that's
a
factor
of
some
of
the
changing
socio-demographic
profile
of
the
in
migration
into
our
region
of
that
20
to
29
demographic,
as
well
as
the
type
of
industries
that
are
driving
growth
in
the
region.
Demographics.
Certainly
and
again,
migration
is
a
major
part
of
you
know
the
homeowner,
as
well
as
rental
occupied
Market,
but
also
for
the
larger
economic
profile
and
picture
of
the
region
itself.
K
K
Those
three
items
are
becoming
significant
barriers
to
additional
Workforce
Development,
especially
in
our
non-metro
parts
of
the
state,
which
is
kind
of
a
canary
in
a
coal
mine.
For
some
of
the
concerns
that
we
might
start
facing
in
the
more
Metro
Parts,
especially
in
the
Northwestern
Nevada
region.
K
K
B
On
zoom-
and
we
have
Mr
Hill
here
in
person,
so
welcome
to
all
of
you.
The
presentation
that
that's
going
to
be
delivered
in
this
section
is
also
outside
the
packet.
B
B
M
Visitor
volume
has
not
fully
recovered.
We
are
down
approximately
10
percent
over
the
last
three
months.
It's
about
nine
percent
and
we
continue
to
improve
the
difference
between
where
we
were
in
2019
and
now
is
largely
around
the
convention
and
meeting
and
trade
show
attendance
as
well
as
International
attendance
and
those
two
things
are
related
in
that,
for
example,
CES
or
the
broadcasters
shows
are
typically
25
or
30
percent
internationally
attended.
So
there
is
some
overlap
between
the
meeting
industry
now
recovering
fully
and
international,
not
recovering
fully.
M
You
can
see
what
convention
attendance
look
like
over
the
last
several
years.
We
are
recovering,
but
we're
we're
about
70
percent
of
where
we
were
in
2019
right
now.
M
Our
projection
is
that
from
a
same
show
standpoint,
and
this
is
on
average-
is
there
going
to
be
a
wide
range
and
it
depends
on
the
industry
at
the
trade
show,
but
on
average
we
think
they
will
recover
about
90
percent.
We
don't
think
most
of
these
shows
anytime,
particularly
in
the
time
frame
that
you're
considering
here,
will
get
back
in
total
for
all
the
shows
to
100,
so
we're
going
to
need
to
sell
as
we
move
forward.
M
This
is
just
a
snapshot
of
what's
going
on
in
our
building
this
calendar
year.
We.
N
Will
have
57
trade
shows
a
little
over
800
000
attendees
in
those
trade
shows
next
calendar
year.
Similar
number
very
similar
number
of
trade
shows,
but
we
estimated
attendance
will
start
to
really
recover
and
get
up
to
that.
1.4
million
dollar
number
Hotel
occupancy
mirrors
visitation
at
this
point,
so
it's
down
approximately
the
same
percentage.
That
visitation
is
that
makes
sense.
N
On
the
other
hand,
ADR
has
been
very
strong,
so
we
are
up
on
21
year-to-date
over
2019
and
that
combination
of
ADR
and
occupancy
produces
a
REV
par
of
about
five
percent
more
than
what
we
had
in
2019.
So
from
a
financial
standpoint,
the
city
and
the
tourism
industry
here
are
setting
Financial
records,
but
we
are
not
setting
visitation
records
at
this
point.
N
Gaming
revenue,
which
obviously
interests
the
form
quite
a
bit-
has
been
significantly
higher
than
it
has
been
prior
to
the
pandemic.
You
know
these
numbers
and
probably
know
these
as
well,
but
I
think
this
slide
really
shows
the
the
trend
in
a
pretty
Stark
way.
Our
visitors
are
have
a
bigger
gaming
budget
than
they
have
had
in
any
time
in
the
past,
by
as
much
as
50
percent
more
at
its
peak,
starting
to
moderate,
somewhat
anticipating
the
question
of
where
we
think
this
is
headed
and
I'll
talk
later
a
little
bit.
N
We
see
occupancy
as
an
opportunity,
we're
10
down
as
this
spend
per
visitor,
probably
returns,
or
at
least
approaches
a
mean
where
it
was
in
the
past.
We've
burned
through
stimulus,
money,
we've
burned
through
pent
up
demand.
We
also
think
that
for
a
while
during
the
pandemic,
gaming
was
one
of
a
more
limited
set
of
choices
for
spending
on
discretionary
dollars.
N
Those
choices
have
expanded
back
to
a
much
more
normal
situation,
so
we
think
this
tends
to
revert
toward
the
mean
over
a
period
of
time,
but
we
also
think
we
can
add
more
people
back
into
Las
Vegas
and
we
will
get
back
to
our
full
occupancy
of
88
to
90
percent
over
the
next
couple
of
years
as
well.
So
those
two
things
may
at
some
level
cancel
each
other
out.
N
Gaming
revenue
I
mean
the
big
numbers
are
Gaming
revenue
and
ADR.
We
should
do
rev
part
105
of
a
percent
of
where
we
were
in
2019.
Air
passengers
have
all
virtually
recovered.
The
number
of
seats
that
we
have
coming
into
Las
Vegas
on
a
monthly
or
annual
basis,
is
virtually
identical
to
where
it
was
in
2019
kind
of
interesting.
You
can
see
we
had
a
little
bit
of
a
surge
on
I-15
in
our
Drive
Market
in
21,
but
that
has
reduced
a
little
bit
in
22..
N
That's
probably
a
combination
of
increase
in
fuel
price,
as
well
as
the
experience
on
I-15,
is
something
we
need
to
continue
to
work
on
and
is
not
great
the
the
lower
numbers
on
the
left
of
that
debt
or
that
slide.
We
really
see
as
opportunities.
We
think
that
the
meeting
industry
will
recover
that
will
cause
our
occupancy
to
recover
to
at
least
100
percent
of
what
it
was.
We
have
added
some
rooms
during
the
pandemic,
we're
about
probably
six
or
seven
thousand
rooms
over
the
past
number
of
years.
N
N
This
is
a
pretty
good
snapshot
of
international
visitation
to
the
U.S,
though,
so
we
use
it
as
a
proxy
for
Las
Vegas
and
it
tends
to
mirror
we're
we're
in
the
five
six
seven
percent
of
these
numbers,
but
it
tends
to
mirror
our
International
visitation
and
you
can
see
where
we
are
right
now
going
forward.
N
N
The
industry
feels
like
it's
in
kind
of
a
soft
Landing
now
going
forward,
we're
not
unaware
that
there's
a
potential
recession
there,
the
Federal
Reserve,
is
not
only
saber-rattling,
but
they
have
unsheathed
the
sword
and
or
wielding
it,
and
that
may
cause
more
of
an
impact
than
what
we're
seeing
right
now.
But
we
are
not
seeing
an
impact
currently
and
the
surveys
that
we
run
over
the
next
four
months
are
showing
really
increased
interest
in
travel
to
what
we
have
seen
in
the
past.
N
M
Do
still
have
some
staffing
and
service
challenges.
Mr
Gordon
mentioned
that,
as
you
can
see
in
the
Staffing
numbers
that
he
showed,
you
were
down
17
000
in
the
industry.
But
if
you
look
at
that
in
comparison
to
the
occupancy
that
we
have
it's
pretty
well
matched
employees
per
room
occupied
is
actually
a
little
better
than
it
was
in
2019.
M
gas
prices
continue
to
be
an
issue.
You
know.
Global
political
instability
continues
to
be
an
issue.
Policies
around
covid
and
internationally
can
continue
to
be
an
issue,
so
those
concerns
are
there.
For
the
most
part,
they
are
just
to
find
the
environment
that
we
have
to
operate
in,
there's
not
much
that
we
can
do
about
those,
but
right
now
those
things
do
not
seem
to
be
having
a
real
impact
on
the
tourism
industry
either.
M
There's
some
real
positive
Trends
as
I
mentioned
travel
intent
that
we
see
we
survey
every
weekend
is
remain
strong
and
is
stronger,
I
think
through
the
holidays
than
we
have
seen
in
some
time
convention
bookings
continue
to
increase,
ADR
strength
has
remained.
We
have
strong
visitor
spending,
so
the
visitors
who
are
coming
are
spending
more
than
they
have
in
the
past
and
we
are
seeing
an
international
travel
recovery,
the
opportunities
we
see
that
I
mentioned
before
occupancy
with
10
percent
down.
M
We
feel
like
we
will
continue
to
close
that
Gap
and
fully
close
that
Gap
as
we
move
forward.
Even
with
six
or
seven
thousand
more
rooms
in
the
market.
Meeting
space
I
think
deserves
at
least
a
mention.
We
went
into
the
pandemic
with
11
and
a
half
million
square
feet
of
net
meeting
space
in
Las
Vegas
during
the
pandemic.
We
added
about
three
million
more
to
this
market,
so
we
are
currently
at
about
14
and
a
half
million
net
square
feet,
so
that's
leasable
square
feet.
M
So
you
know
we
just
build
a
1.4
million
square
foot
building.
It
only
has
750
000
square
feet
of
leasable
square
feet
in
it.
That's
all.
That's
in
that
number
is
that
750
000.
Fountain
Blue
is
going
to
come
online
with
nearly
half
a
million
more
square
feet.
We
will
be
up
over
15
million
square
feet,
so
we
are
adding
30
or
35
percent
to
our
meeting
space.
While
we
are
adding
four
or
five
percent
to
our
room
count.
M
M
Our
goal
by
the
time
we
get
to
26
is
to
have
that
number
be
8.3
million,
so
we'll
not
only
catch
back
up
to
the
6.6
million,
but
that
amount
of
meeting
space
gives
us
a
tremendous
amount
of
capacity
to
exceed
it.
And
then
we
see
real
opportunity
to
run
Sports
and
events,
and
that
certainly
relates
to
the
work
that
you
have
in
projecting
live
entertainment.
M
It's
a
real
pleasure
to
be
able
to
sit
here
and
talk
to
Mr
gendon
about
not
bringing
Revenue
to
the
state
instead
of
using
Revenue,
as
I
did
in
my
last
job.
So
he's
much
happier
with
me
now
than
he
was
then
the
you
know.
We
obviously
have
two
huge
events
in
the
first
year
of
the
next
biennium
Formula
One
will
be
here.
The
16th
through
the
18th
of
November
and
23
on
the
Super
Bowl
will
follow
three
and
a
half
months
later.
M
The
Formula
One
calculation
is
not
yet
completely
clear
and
they'll
be
meeting
with
the
Department
of
Taxation
I
believe
later
this
month
or
very
early
in
November,
because
what
they
sell
is
not
only
a
ticket
to
the
event,
but
a
package
of
hospitality,
food
and
beverage
other
entertainment,
that
is
a
part
of
those
tickets.
So
exactly
what
the
lat
will
apply
to
will
be
the
subject
of
that
conversation,
but
it'll
be
a
big
portion
of
that
of
that
ticket
sale,
projecting
somewhere
between
110
and
130
000
tickets
that
will
be
sold
for
Formula
One.
M
The
Super
Bowl
is
a
much
easier
thought
process
and
calculation
there
are
going
to
be
a
little
over
60
000
tickets
sold
our
projection
internally
at
the
lvcva
on
live
entertainment
tax.
Just
for
the
Super
Bowl
was
somewhere
between
17
million
and
20
million
dollars
formula.
One
will
be,
you
know
in
that
General
range.
M
So
if
you
said
hey
the,
we
think
the
let
in
that
particular
year,
Will
Rise
by
25
or
more
I'd,
say
yeah-
that
that
sounds
right
to
me
so
well
we'll
be
able
to
provide
a
little
more
specificity
on
that
as
we
move
forward.
So
that
is
my
presentation.
I'm
happy
to
answer
any
questions.
The
Forum
may
have
thank
you.
M
It's
a
three-year
deal
currently
with
Formula
One.
The
anticipation
is
that
this
will
be
a
permanent
race
each
year
in
in
Las
Vegas.
They
they
purchased
a
quarter
billion
dollar
piece
of
property
in
our
constructing
things
on
it
that
are
intended
to
last
more
than
three
years
great
and
then
obviously
much
less
impactful,
but
still
important.
When
we
look
at
historical
forecasts
for
the
lat,
just
how
our
shows
are
they
have
they
fully
recovered
from
2019
levels?
Are
they
all
back
online?
M
Just
the
day-to-day
in
and
out
shows
that
they
have
at
the
different
Resorts
that
you
get.
The
lat
on
yeah
it
shows
in
the
destination
are
probably
mirroring
the
occupancy
that
we
have.
They
are
probably
90
percent
back
right
still
have
some
amount
of
recovery
to
go
and.
B
E
A
little
bit
of
a
cannibalistic
effect
on
some
of
the
shows.
B
O
And
how
much?
How
much
is
that
going
to
play
into
the
your
anticipation
of
the
visitor
volume
will
be
back
to
where
previously
was
a
member
love?
It
Steve
Hill?
We
are
seeing
quite
a
bit
of
Return
of
international
visitation
and
you
got
to
keep
in
mind
that
a
lot
of
you
know.
50
percent
of
our
International
visitation
is
Canada
and
Mexico.
They
perform
almost
like
the
51st
and
52nd
state.
I
mean
they're
a
part
of
the
pretty
easy
travel.
The
UK
has
returned
strongly.
O
The
value
of
the
dollar
right
now
is
a
concern.
It's
at
least
you
know
it
doesn't
feel
more
expensive
to
come
back
here
to
us,
but
it
does
to
others
across
the
world.
We
are
right
now
at
about
somewhere
between
80
and
85
percent
of
the
International
Air
capacity
has
returned.
Load
factors
are
pretty
high,
so
it
is
a
strong
recovery.
O
We
are
obviously
China
is
their
policies
at
this
point?
Don't
allow
a
recovery
there.
They
are
typically
not
big
huge
in
number
of
visitors,
so
it's
usually
about
250
000
visitors
a
year
from
China,
but
the
impact
and
the
spend
of
our
China
visitors
is
Meaningful,
particularly
on
The,
Gaming
revenue,
side
and
right
now
that
is
absent.
O
O
It
really
has-
and
it's
been
very
helpful-
obviously
to
the
industry
in
the
state-
and
it
has
continued
I-
would
have
anticipated
as
I
think
you're
intimating
that
it
would
be
it
would
have
been
more
of
a
spike
and
then
a
falloff,
but
that
falloff
has
been
very
gradual.
O
It'll
be
interesting
to
see
just
what,
how
much
of
a
recession
we
have
and
how
deep
it
is,
I
suppose
if
you
know
for
deed,
we
we
see
so
many
conflicting
things
right
now.
You
know
when
you
look
at
it,
we
see
the
stock
market
jumping
all
over
the
place,
mostly
down
and
I'll.
Envy
you
your
job
over
the
next
day,
I
was
gonna.
Ask
do
you
see
a
lot
of
different
new
events
coming?
We
we
watch
the
stadium
and
see
the
live.
O
The
live
entertainment,
the
concerts,
and
what
have
you
do
we
see
a
lot
more
like
that
ramping
up
even
further?
Have
they
maxed
it
out
as
far
as
spot
on
singers
and
we've
seen
a
good
variety,
remember:
Lewis,
Steve
Hill,
the
stadium
has
performed
exceptionally
well,
it's
performed
better
than
we
modeled
when
we
first
considered
moving
forward
with
it.
I,
don't
think
it's
at
Absolute
capacity,
but
it's
close
and.
O
The
just
the
number
of
slots
that
they
have
available
there
are
there's
some
capacity
left
that
can
be
maximized,
but
they've
it's
been
exceptionally
well
utilized
and
it
would
be
difficult
to
really
make
a
whole
lot
of
progress
from
where
they
are
and
I
was
going
to
ask
too
we
haven't
do
we
know
when
msg's
fear
will
start
adding,
shows
because
I
think
that'll
that'll
start
adding
to
us.
O
Do
we
know
kind
of
what
their
plans
for
booking
that
are
I
haven't
seen
much,
but
you
normally
have
more
on
this,
sir
member
Lewis,
Steve
Hill
that
and
I
think
they've
said
this
publicly
I
hope.
So
they
plan
to
be
open.
O
Late,
third
quarter
next
year,
September
ish.
They
seem
confident
that
they
will
be
able
to
meet
that
time
frame
formula
one
has
entered
into
an
agreement
with
the
sphere.
It
will
be
some
of
the
tickets
that
will
be
on
sale
during
the
race,
which
will
be
pretty
spectacular
event
inside
the
sphere
as
well,
so
they
they
plan
to
be
open
approximately
a
year
from
now,
and
it's
a
lot
of
ticket
sales.
There's
no
question
excellent!
Thank
you
Steve.
This
is
Evan
from
John.
Can
you
talk?
O
Could
you
talk
a
little
bit
about
the
lvcc,
it's
great
to
see
that
that
new
facility
ramp
up
looks
like
the
trade
shows
you're
having
there
are
somewhat
static
in
terms
of
number
around
57.58,
but
there's
going
to
be
a
jump
of
attendance.
What's
driving
that?
Is
it
just
more
recovery
of
attendees
per
group?
Is
it
mix
more
city-wise?
What's
what's
going
on
there?
Could
you
talk
about
that?
A
little
sure
members
on
Steve
Hill?
O
It
is
largely
a
continued
recovery
of
the
same
shows
and
it
is
also
us
counting
not
not
having
Omicron
again
in
January
and
February
and
right
in
the
heart
of
convention
season
for
us,
which
is
typically
January
to
the
end
of
april-ish.
Ces
in
January
of
this
year
was
about
a
40
000
person.
Attendee
show
when
in
the
biggest
years
was
in
the
180
000
range.
So
the
shows
that
took
place
in
January
and
February
of
this
calendar
year
were
really
impacted
by
Omicron.
O
We
anticipate
significant
recovery
and
increase
in
attendance
from
those
shows
and
then
just
continued
Improvement
I
was
just
in
Asia,
with
a
number
of
the
CEOs
of
global
trade,
show
organizers,
including
many
of
our
biggest
customers,
and
one
of
the
things
that
they
mentioned
there,
because,
in
contrast,
the
United
States
is
doing
a
significantly
better
than
Asia
and
median
recovery.
They
also
said
that
we
will
have
an
advantage
in
that.
The
second
third
time
you
go
back
through
these
shows.
O
You
re-engage
your
customers,
your
customers,
that
these
shows
have
changed
just
like
the
employment
at
every
business
has
changed.
So
when
you
email
somebody
and
say,
hey
we'd
like
you
to
attend
our
show,
a
lot
of
those
emails
are
bouncing
back
because
that
person
doesn't
have
that
job
anymore,
so
they're
having
to
reconnect
so
being
able
to
go
through
the
second
and
third
iteration
of
these
big
trade
shows
allows
the
full
recovery
of
those
trade
shows
they
don't
all.
They
don't,
naturally
come
back
in
full
the
first
year
that
you
have
them.
O
O
All
very
exciting,
thank
you
very
much.
Thank
you
and
I.
Guess
yes,
okay.
So
additional
part
of
this
agenda
item
is
to
to
have
a
commentary
on
the
northern
part
of
the
state,
so
Mr
Mr
Harris
and
his
presentation
is
also
outside
the
packet
go
ahead
whenever
you're
ready.
Sir.
Thank
you,
madam
chair
and
members
of
The
Forum.
This
is
Charles
Harris
from
the
Reno
Sparks
convention
and
visitors,
Authority
and
I'm,
going
to
run
through
my
slides
here.
O
A
lot
of
what
you'll
hear
from
me
is
very,
very
similar
to
what
Mr
Hill
just
presented
very,
very
similar
up
here
in
Northern
Nevada.
You
know
we're
we're
in
the
process
of
recovering
we've
actually
had
we're
coming
off
the
best
year
we've
ever
had.
We
actually
had
tax
collections
of
457
million
dollars,
plus,
which
is
the
best
year
in
the
fiscal
year
we've
ever
had,
and
really
it's
been
relying
on
the
Leisure
sector
more
than
the
meetings
and
conventions
meetings.
Conventions
continues
to
recover.
O
It's
focused
on
gaming
and
certainly
on
special
events,
and
that's
really
the
core
of
what
we
go
out
and
sell
and
I'll
be
brief,
because
Mr
Hill
Covered
a
lot
of
the
same
things,
but
it's
reflective
of
of
where
we're
at
in
terms
of
visitor
volume.
By
month,
we
certainly
we
Peak
over
the
summer
and
through
the
end
of
June.
It
shows
you
kind
of
where
we
were
at
coming
off.
O
November
of
20,
which
is
actually
when
I,
was
hired
here
in
Northern
Nevada
at
the
Lowe's
visitor
volume,
is
down
around
nine
to
ten
percent
overall,
but
that
ADR
has
carried
Northern
Nevada,
much
like
it
did
in
southern
Nevada,
which
allowed
us
to
get
to
those
records.
Setting
revenues.
G
B
Dollar
level
cash
occupied
room
nights
has
recovered
well
again.
The
summer
season
of
June
and
July
has
been
phenomenal.
I
would
say
that
we
were
impacted
by
the
fires
here
from
California
in
in
August
and
September
last
year
and
this
year,
which
which
does
have
an
impact
but
overall,
because
the
adrs
were
so
strong,
we
have.
We
have
maintained
our
record
setting
Pace
the
80
hours
for
the
individual
hotels
have
continued
to
go
up
from
the.
O
Lows
of
104
during
the
pandemic
to
about
154
through
the
end
of
our
fiscal
year
and
again,
we're
now
see
going
back
to
seasonality,
but
while
the
number
of
visitors
remains
down
of
single
percentage
down
to
10
percent,
the
ADR
has
gone
up
and
allowed
us
to
generate
the
income
that
we
are
in
terms
of
taxable
room
revenues.
By
month
we
peaked
and
June
of
21
for
the
first
time
ever,
generating
more
than
50
million
dollars
for
a
single
month.
O
We've
now
done
that
twice
as
we
did
it
this
last
summer
as
well,
and
we're
seeing
good
seasonality
in
terms
of
our
process
when
it
comes
to
air
service
and
where
Northern
Nevada
is
at
the
scheduled
departures,
kind
of
Compares
1920.
B
And
21.
we
are
down
a
little
bit.
There
has
been
some
shifting
as
we
see
in
Northern
Nevada,
where
we
were
able
to
take
advantage
of
during
the
pandemic.
Some
reallocation
of
flights
that
came
through
Reno
we're
seeing
Airlines
continue
to
shift
their
their
fleets.
B
From
the
East
Coast
right
now,
and
a
lot
of
that
is
Staffing
whether
it's
Pilots,
whether
it's
flight
attendants
and
then
our
monthly
seat
capacity,
is
down
a
little
bit
compared
to
the
same
time
in
projections
over
the
last
two
years:
air
passenger
service.
B
Again
it's
as
the
head
of
the
airport,
said
here
in
Northern
Nevada,
it's
like
Thanksgiving
for
a
lot
of
days,
a
lot
of
people
coming
through
and-
and
it
has
been
very,
very
successful-
there's
actually
a
press
conference
going
on
at
the
airport
right
now
about
their
expansion
plans
and
what
that
looks
like
over
over
the
next
few
years
as
the
airport
can
continues
to
look
towards
modernizing
its
facilities
in
terms
of
the
meetings
and
conventions.
P
If
I
look
at
19,
20
and
21,
the
right
side
is
what
the
goals
were
again
were
were
only
projected
to
to
get
to
206.5
through
through
the
current
or
through
the
last
fiscal
year,
which
we
exceeded
at
2
15..
Our
goal
is
to
get
back
to
the
pre-pandemic
numbers,
but
through
the
last
two
fiscal
years
we've
exceeded
the
the
room
night
goal
and
again
the
Leisure
side
here
in
Northern.
Nevada
is
outpacing
the
meetings
and
conventions,
but
we
do
have
space.
P
It's
generated
a
fair
amount
of
income
for
us
and
allowed
us
to
continue
along
our
path,
occupied
room
nights
again,
skewing
up
and
and
doing
very
well.
The
the
seasonality
that
you
saw
in
August
of
last
year
was
due
to
the
fires,
and
that
was
impacted
specifically
in
in
Lake
Tahoe
area,
Last
Summer,
with
that
here's
some
travel
Trends
across
the
U.S,
as
supplied
by
by
tourism,
economics
and
U.S
travel
again.
P
Overall
spending
is
still
a
little
bit
below
where
it
is
in
August,
but
here
in
Nevada
we
are
trending
better
than
the
U.S
overall
improved
slightly
from
from
from
levels
when
it
comes
to
passenger
volume
and
Meeting.
Planners
are
very
optimistic
about
where
we
are
one
of
the
pieces
of
data
that
just
came
out
this
morning
was
inflation
is
cutting
into
travel
spending
going
into
the
holiday
season.
79
of
people
are
looking
to
change
their
travel
plans
and
here
in
Northern
Nevada.
The
two
biggest
issues
that
we
continue
to
have
one
is
Workforce
challenges.
P
Specifically,
you
saw
that
in
the
leisure,
in
the
hospitality
numbers
we're,
we
are
losing
some
people
to
the
Tech
sector
and
and
where
the
tech
sector
jobs
are
are,
are
are
offering
and
then
certainly
affordable,
housing
for
that
Workforce,
and
that
is
an
ongoing
issue,
not
only
here
in
Northern
Nevada
but
across
the
country
as
well.
P
Some
statistics
that
we're
looking
at
obviously
tourism
still
strong,
but
we're
still
in
a
recovery
phase
compared
to
19
in
terms
of
overall
visitor
volume
numbers.
The
jobs
as
I
mentioned,
are
still
down
in
the
private
sector.
Employment
is
nearly
flat.
P
Travel
spending
is
still
a
little
bit
down
compared
to
19
and,
as
I
said,
international
travel
looking
at
24
25
for
a
full
recovery
meetings
and
conventions
booking
in
Reno
as
I
said,
remains
strong.
Our
goal
this
year
is
2
15
on
our
group
and
Convention
room
nights
and
for
the
first
three
months
of
this
year
we
are
pacing
about
101,
102
percent
to
our
plan.
So
we're
doing
well
we're
going
to
be
coming
out
of
that
hybrid
form.
It
was
very
strong
during
the
pandemic,
but
there's
nothing
like
meeting
in
person.
P
In
those
relationships
as
as
Mr
Hill
had
mentioned,
and
it's
certainly
gaining
some
momentum
moving
forward
with
that
I'll
turn
it
back
over
and
open
it
up
to
any
questions
from
the
group.
P
I
I
actually
had
a
couple
questions.
This
is
Linda
Rosenthal
for
the
record.
The
Reno
Airport
expansion
that
you
mentioned
or
or
upgrade
I
mean
I
guess
is
it
an
expansion?
Is
it
going
to
increase
capacity
and
then
What's
the
timing
of
when
we
might
actually
see
that
benefit?
P
Some
of
the
the
travel
statistics
yeah,
so
the
the
that
is
starting
right
now
in
terms
of
the
the
expansion
they're
going
to
get
started
on
that
expansion
right
away,
the
head
of
the
airport
has
made
visits
to
the
airlines
that
fly
in
the
major,
the
major
folks
that
come
through
and
I've
been
able
to
accompany
him
on
some
of
the
earlier
meetings.
P
That's
going
to
be
a
few
years
and
there
there
will
be
a
little
bit
of
pain
in
terms
of
parking,
but
there
will
be
expansion
and
there
will
be
more
opportunities
for
more
flights
to
come
through
here.
I
think
when
it
comes
to
our
meetings
and
Convention
space.
This
is
real
important
when
it
comes
to
the
ability
to
be
able
to
fly
in
from
the
east
coast
and
limit.
B
The
number
of
connections
that
we
see,
then
that's
what
Meeting,
Planners
and
visitors
are
requiring
when
we
had
burning
man
come
through.
There
were
airlines
that
were
that
were
made
Partners
to
accommodate
about
25
000
folks
that
came
through
for
burning
man,
so.
L
There's
a
lot
of
positive
things,
a
little
bit
of
pain
during
that
expansion,
but
certainly
modernization
of
that
facility
coming
to
Northern
Nevada,
so
probably
outside
of
our
forecast.
Horizon
though
then
in
terms
of
seeing
any
benefits,
yeah,
yes
and
then
just
I'm
from
Northern
Nevada,
but
so
I'm
not
aware
of
this.
So
just
checking
to
see
if
you
have
additional
information,
so
we
you
know
talked
just
a
minute
ago
with
Mr
Hill
about
F1
racing,
Super,
Bowl,
obviously
things
that
Vegas
is
able
to
do
that.
L
L
We
have
signed
two
extensions,
one
with
bowling
to
extend
our
contract
through
2032,
which
will
include
a
couple
different
opens.
The
the
trending
for
the
event,
that's
going
to
happen
here
in
March,
is
looking.
B
Very
strong
I'm.
B
Gonna
realize
the
numbers
that
they're
providing
us
and
certainly
not
my
place
to
to
reveal
that
and
then
we've
had
Miss
USA
with
a
three-year
contract
that
has
come
through
first
year.
That
just
happened
in
two
more
years.
That
will
add
not
only
thousands
of
rooms
but
millions
of
dollars
in
international
publicity
for
the
destination.
B
A
question
that
will
there
be
any
additional
rooms
built
in
Northern
Nevada?
What
kind
of
like
what
kind
of
quantities
are
the
significant
number
yeah?
It's
a
great
question.
We
have
some
select
service
opening
up
at
the
end
of
this
year.
We've
got
an
element
in
our
in
our
Reno
experience.
District,
that's
ready
to
open
Kimpton
has
broke
broken
ground,
there's
other
select
service
properties
that
are
on
the
books
and
slated
whether
it's
up
at
our
Summit
area
or
or
down
more
towards
Tamarack.
B
So
we
we
are
seeing
some
select
service,
but
the
kimpton's,
probably
the
largest
property
that
has
broken
ground.
That's
going
to
come
in,
but
our
our
our
five
big
boxes
still
remain
are
important.
Current
partners
that
are
there.
Thank
you.
B
B
There
we
go
I'm,
just
gonna
touch
on
a
few
points
that
will
inform
our
economic
outlook
for
the
biennium.
We've
heard
a
lot
about
National,
Economic
Trends,
so
I
won't
dwell
too
much
on
those,
but
let's
discuss
some
of
the
influences
regarding
travel
choices
in
rural
Nevada
in
particular.
B
I'll
talk
now
about
some
of
the
what
happened
in
rural
Nevada
during
the
pandemic,
which
of
course,
influence
influences
forward
position
today
throughout
the
heights
of
the
pandemic,
Travelers
indicated
that
activities
in
which
excuse
me
here
in
which
they
could
be
away
from
crowds,
were
the
safest
travel
related
activities
results
shown
here
from
destination.
B
Because
of
this
Dynamic,
where
Travelers
felt
safest
doing
the
things
that
rural
areas
could
best
deliver
rural
destinations
recovered
faster
than
Urban
destinations.
The
chart
here
shows
that
room
tax
collections
in
rural
Nevada
reached
pre-pandemic
levels
at
a
much
faster
rate
than
the
urban
areas
of
the
state.
It
should
be
noted
that
the
urban
areas
still
represented
the
majority
of
room
tax
collections
during
this
period,
but
rural
Nevada
recovered
more
quickly
than
Clark
and
Washington
counties
similar
to
room
tax
collections.
B
Room
nights
occupied
in
rural
Nevada
tended
to
recover
more
quickly
than
the
urban
parts
of
the
state.
The
urban
areas
still
accounted
for
the
majority
of
room
tax
demand
in
the
state,
but
again
rural
areas
return
to
near
pre-pandemic
levels
faster,
although
rural
Nevada
as
a
whole
has
recovered
well.
After
the
initial
effects
of
the
pandemic,
some
counties
in
particular
have
done
especially
well.
Douglas
County,
Humboldt,
County
and
White
Pine
County
have
seen
large
gains
in
room
tax
collections
compared
to
2019..
B
Let's
take
a
look
at
some
travel
trends,
one
Trend
that
is
evident
in
travel,
they're
not
unique
to
it-
is
high
prices.
Here
you
can
see
the
average
daily
rate
for
hotels
throughout
different
areas
of
the
state
compared
to
what
they
were
in
2019.
You
can
see
that
ADR
across
all
areas
of
Nevada
has
surpassed
what
it
was
in
2019
indicated
by
the
solid
black
line
in
each
of
these
charts,
usually
by
a
wide
margin.
Again.
B
B
Travelers
are,
of
course,
noticing
these
high
prices
as
well.
When
asked
about
deterrence
to
traveling
in
the
past
six
months.
The
top
four
reasons
cited
were
all
Finance
related
with
three
out
of
the
four
specifically
indicating
that
certain
elements
of
travel
are
too
expensive
right
now,
the
first
health
related
deterrent
doesn't
appear
until
the
fifth
most
cited
option,
and
it
should
also
be
noted
that
things
such
as
the
possibility
of
flight
cancellations,
which
are
usually
not
a
huge
concern
for
travelers,
was
cited
by
16
percent
of
respondents.
When
asked
this
question.
B
Another
issue
not
unique
to
travel
but
possibly
more
evident
evident
in
the
industry,
is
a
lack
of
workers
when
destination
analyst
asks
in
May
what
sort
of
things
people
felt
was
most
likely
to
happen.
The
most
cited
answer
was
the
tourism.
Businesses
will
continue
to
have
problems
finding
employees.
This
was
cited
by
over
65
percent
of
respondents
and
was
higher
than
responses
such
as
a
new
coveted
variant
emerging.
B
B
On
another
positive
note,
covid-19
continues
to
be
less
of
a
concern
for
travelers
over
time.
The
impact
that
covid-19
is
having
on
the
ability
to
have
meaningful
travel
experiences
has
been
on
a
downward
Trend
and
has
recently
Fallen
below
30
percent
in
destination.
Analyst
survey
respondents
were
asked
which
destination
they
most
wanted
to
travel
to
the
next
12
months
and
Las
Vegas
has
routinely
been
on
the
top
of
the
list
of
destinations
cited.
B
Let's
take
a
look
at
some
economic
Trends
I
know,
we've
talked
a
lot
about
National
issues,
but
just
how
this
will
influence
travel
sentiment
and
travel
choices
coming
up
because
higher
level
levels
of
employment
generally
equates
higher
levels
of
travel
indicators
for
the
state
of
employment
and
labor
market.
Also,
things
that
may
affect
them
are
helpful
to
look
after
gauging
how
travel
might
perform.
B
There
are
a
lot
of
indicators
showing
that
generally,
the
labor
market
is
currently
strong.
Of
course,
one
of
these
is
the
unemployment
rate,
which
is,
of
course,
still
remaining
low.
B
And
again,
a
strong
labor
market.
It
remains
a
positive
factor
which
is
weighed
against
and
consumer
spending
remaining
High.
This
is,
of
course,
a
weight
against
increased
inflation
and
increased
interest
rates,
which
brings
us.
B
To
related
travel
sentiment
on
a
recent
destination,
analyst
survey,
the
number
of
those
surveys
saying
it's
a
good
time
to
travel
and
that
they
had
expectations
for
leisure
travel
has
fallen
significantly
through
most
of
2022.
Unfortunately,.
B
B
Although
the
urban
areas
make
up
a
good
majority
of
the
room,
tax,
Collections
and
room
demand
in
Nevada
rural
areas,
return
to
pre-pandemic
levels
quicker,
as
people
were
drawn
to
the
opportunities
that
rural
Nevada
provided,
which
were
viewed
as
safer
in
terms
of
travel,
Trends,
high
prices
and
labor
labor
shortage
are
evident,
Travelers
right
now
as
potential
pain
points,
but
Travelers
are
still
indicating
that
they
are
receiving
good
value
for
their
travel.
Experiences
and
covid-19
continues
to
Trend
lower
as
a
concern.
B
Finally,
Rising
prices
and
expectations
for
interest
rates
increases
are
front
of
Mind
economically.
This
is
causing
fears
that
demand
for
goods
and
services
will
be
lower,
as
consumers
have
less
money
to
spend
freely
and
could
lead
to
increases
in
unemployment.
But
the
labor
market,
which
is
a
good
indicator
for
travel,
is
strong
right
now
with
low
levels
of
unemployment
and
lots
of
jobs
available
for
those
looking
for
them,
so
that
all
of
this
is
a
backdrop.
Here's
our
general
output
look
for
the
next
couple
of
years.
B
Our
short-term
outlook
for
travel
looks
positive
at
the
moment,
as
mentioned
previously,
the
labor
market
is
strong
and
covid-19
is
not
a
barriers
to
travel
at
all.
However,
the
midterm
Outlook
is
a
little
less
certain
consumer
sentiment
levels
are
at
a
relative
low
points,
and
this
could
be
impactful
because
it
could
lead
to
a
kind
of
self-fulfilling
prophecy.
If
enough
people
expect
the
economy
to
worsen.
This
could
lead
to
lower
spending
which
negative
negatively
impacts
the
economy
further.
B
With
inflation
remaining
High,
the
Federal
Reserve
is
expected
to
keep
raising
interest
rates
which
could
lower
demand
for
goods
and
services
and
cost
of
borrowing
Rises.
Because
of
these
assumptions,
our
forecast
calls
for
a
softening
and
room
demand
around
the
middle
of
2023,
but
then
room
demand
will
begin
an
upward
trajectory
again.
In
2024.
our
forecast
anticipates
room
demand
to
Eclipse
fiscal
year,
19
levels.
Sometime
in
fiscal
year,
25.
B
That
concludes
my
presentation.
Can
I
answer
any
questions
for
you.
B
I
just
had
one
minor
question:
just
a
curiosity
on
the
charts
with
the
ADR
I
saw
that
it
looks
like
for
Lake
Tahoe.
B
There
was
a
decline
still
above
pre-pandemic
levels,
but
a
decline
kind
of
at
the
end
of
your
chart
that
sort
of
mirrored
the
prior
years
that
just
a
calendar
effect
of
events
in
Lake
Tahoe,
that's
driving
that
decline.
B
Thank
you,
chair,
Rosenthal,
Brenda,
scalaria.
I
would
also
make
that
assumption.
Yes,
I
believe
it
is
okay,
so
nothing
unique
going
on
there
just
calendar
of
events
correct.
B
Okay
agenda
item
number
10
presentation
on
the
Nevada
Insurance
markets.
We
have
several
presenters
today:
Nick
stoestick
Deputy,
Commissioner,
division
of
insurance,
Department
of
Business
and
Industry
Jeremy,
Gladstone
assistant
chief
Insurance,
examiner,
division
of
insurance,
Department
of
Business
and
Industry
Ryan
High
executive,
director
of
Silver
State
Health,
Insurance,
Exchange
and
Georgina
Castaneda
policy
and
compliance
manager
of
Silver
State,
Health,
Insurance,
Health,
Insurance
Exchange.
B
Okay,
we're
going
to
start
with
the
presentation
here
on
page
111
in
the
packet.
So
whenever
you're
ready,
please
proceed.
B
Good
morning,
chair
Rosenthal
Vice,
chair
Lewis
and
members
of
The
Forum,
my
name
is
Nick
stosik
and
I'm,
a
Deputy
Commissioner
with
the
Nevada
division
of
insurance
and
I'm
joined
today
from
the
division
by
Jeremy
Gladstone,
who
is
an
assistant
chief
of
our
product,
compliance
section,
which
oversees
the
review
and
approval
of
the
majority
of
the
insurance
products
that
are
sold
in
the
state
today.
We'll
provide
you
with
an
overview
of
the
state's
Insurance
markets
and
written
premiums.
B
Although
insurance
premium
tax
collections
are
reported
on
a
fiscal
year
basis,
which
is
summarized
on
our
last
slide
today,
showing
the
collections
by
the
Department
of
Taxation,
the
rest
of
the
slides
today
will
reflect
written
premium.
That
is
reported
from
carriers
to
the
National
Association
of
insurance.
Commissioners
and
all
NAIC
data
is
reported
on
a
calendar
year
basis.
B
There
are
numerous
lines
of
insurance
that
are
sold
in
the
state.
However,
the
NAIC
categorizes
all
lines
of
insurance
into
three
different
categories:
health
insurance,
which
accounts
for
40
percent
of
the
written
premium
in
the
state
life
accident
and
limited
Health
Products,
which
accounts
for
28
of
the
written
premium
and
then
finally
Property
and
Casualty,
which
makes
up
32
percent
of
the
written
premium.
And
at
this
point,
I'd
like
to
transfer
it
over
to
Jeremy
to
discuss
and
summarize
both
the
health
insurance
results
and
the
life
accident
and
limited
Health
Products.
B
B
These
these
products
have
averaged
7.1
percent
growth.
Over
the
last
five
years,
the
following
bar
chart
breaks
out
the
premiums
and
deposits
specific
to
life
insurance
in
Nevada
from
the
debate
data
presented
in
the
last
slide.
Please
note
that
these
figures
represent
life
and
annuity
products.
Over
this
period,
premium
written
and
deposits
have
increased
63.8
percent,
since
the
decline
in
2016
and
2017
life,
insurance
premiums
and
deposits
have
experienced
consistent
growth
with
2021.
Q
Experiencing
growth
of
14.5
percent
and
an
average
growth
over
2018
to
2021
of
9.2
percent,
while
the
division
can't
specifically
pinpoint
the
cause
of
this
growth,
it
may
be
related
to
the
pandemic
and
an
increased
demand
for
life
insurance
and
annuities.
In
addition,
carriers
are
streamlining
the
process
for
purchasing
life
insurance
product
which
allows
for
a
faster
turnaround
and
could
be
impacting
life
insurance
sales.
Q
The
chart
displayed
provides
a
snapshot
of
how
nevadans
were
covered
as
of
2020..
This
is
an
estimate
based
on
information
obtained
from
state
federal
and
private
data
sources.
It
is
important
to
note
that,
from
a
tax
perspective
that
not
all
Health
Plans
sold
in
Nevada
are
required
to
pay
premium.
Taxes
based
on
the
latest
numbers
Nevada
has
seen
a
shift
in
the
number
of
covered
lives
in
the
self-funded
group.
Market
previous
estimates
allocated
32
percent
of
nevadans
to
this
market,
and
the
latest
estimates
show
an
increase
of
nine
percent
to
41
percent.
Q
Given
that
self-funded
group
plans
do
not
pay
premium
taxes,
this
could
this
shift
could
result
in
a
decrease
in
taxable
premiums.
Another
potential
shift
in
covered
lives
is
likely
to
occur
with
the
end
of
the
federal
public
health
emergency.
With
the
end
of
the
phe,
some
nevadans
may
no
longer
be
eligible
for
Medicaid.
Q
The
Silver
State
Health
exchange
is
working
closely
with
Department
of
Health
Care
financing
and
policy
to
engage
those
individuals
that
lose
Medicaid
Eligibility
and
assist
them
in
enrolling
in
an
ACA
plan
through
the
exchange
Medicaid
and
the
individual
Market
carriers,
both
pay
premium
taxes.
So
the
shift
and
resulting
impact
on
premium
taxes
could
be
negligible
depending
on
the
number
of
nevadans
that
enroll
in
individual
plans.
Q
This
slide
looks
at
Health
business
written
in
the
state
and
provides
membership
and
premiums
written
by
line
of
business,
Medicare,
Medicaid
and
group
group
comprehensive
insurance,
Remain
the
top
three
lines
of
business
in
Nevada
based
on
written
premiums.
These
three
lines
make
up
86
percent
of
the
written
premium
in
2021.
the
last
time
the
division
presented.
The
state
was
dealing
with
the
potential
impacts
of
covid-19
and
the
division
was
projecting
a
loss
of
Premium
tax
due
to
an
anticipated
decrease
in
health
premiums.
Q
This
decrease
decrease
was
never
realized,
and
while
there
were
some
lines
of
business
which
experienced
minor
decreases
in
2020
overall
health
business
premiums
increased.
Furthermore,
2021
written
premiums
are
up
in
comparison
to
2020
for
all
lines
of
business
and
premiums
are
up
over
20
percent
compared
to
the
pandemic.
Pre-Pandemic
premiums
of
2019.
Q
Turning
the
discussion
specifically
to
the
ACA
health
markets,
the
trends
follow
closely
with
what
was
reported
in
the
previous
slide.
2020
total
premium
saw
a
slight
decline
compared
to
2019
with
a
decrease
of
1.12
percent.
This
was
driven
by
a
5.29
percent
drop
in
individual
premium
and
relatively
no
growth
less
than
one
percent
in
the
group.
Market
for
2021
the
market
grew
by
a
whole
grew
as
a
whole
by
7.6
percent,
with
double-digit
growth
of
18
in
the
individual
market,
8.81
for
small
group
and
2.81
percent.
Q
In
the
large
group,
the
growth
in
the
individual
Market
is
partly
attributed
to
the
special
enrollment
period
related
to
covid-19,
as
well
as
expanded
access
to
Affordable
Health
Care
through
additional
subsidies
available
to
nevadans
through
the
American
Rescue
plan
Act.
Those
subsidies
were
scheduled
to
expire
December
31st
of
this
year,
but
were
extended
as
part
of
the
inflation
reduction
act
and
will
continue
through
the
end
of
2025.
Q
The
overall
price
of
Health
Care
under
the
Affordable
Care
Act,
has
stabilized
in
recent
years
and
are
well
below
the
high
rate
increases
that
Nevada
Nevada's
individual
ACA
Market
experienced
in
2018..
The
higher
overall
rate
change
for
Pioneer
2023
is
skewed
by
one
carrier's
higher
rate
change.
When
this
outlier
is
removed,
the
overall
rate
increase
is
5.6
percent
for
the
individual
Market.
Q
The
increases
in
both
markets
in
recent
years
is
due
to
a
variety
of
factors,
one
being
the
continued
increase
in
medical
costs,
diving
deeper
into
the
individual
market
and
considering
the
rate
changes
discussed
in
the
previous
Slide.
The
graph
in
the
top
left
corner
shows
the
average
premium
for
a
40
year
old
in
Nevada
by
rating
area,
and
illustrates
the
stabilization
in
recent
years
and
the
Steep
increase
in
2018.
Q
for
rating
area
4
the
remainder
of
Nevada
counties,
which
represents
a
large
portion
of
rural
Nevada.
The
premiums
peaked
in
2020
and
have
been
on
the
decline
over
the
last
two
years.
Looking
at
the
approved
rates
for
plan
year
2023,
this
trend
is
continued,
with
average
premium
down
30
dollars
over
prior
year
rates
for
rating
Area
3
Premium
spiked
in
2018
and
2019
leveled
out
in
2021,
and
has
been
steadily
increasing
for
Pioneers
2022
and
2023
premiums
in
rating
areas.
Q
With
the
stability
of
pricing,
the
division
has
also
seen
a
return
to
carriers
to
the
individual
Market
in
2018
Nevada's
individual
on
Exchange
Market
was
on
the
verge
of
being
without
plan
offerings
in
rating
area
4
and
found
itself,
without
with
only
two
carriers
in
reigning
areas,
one
and
two
and
one
carrier
in
rating
areas.
Three
and
four.
Since
that
time,
Nevada
has
seen
more
carriers
into
the
market
and
for
Pioneer
2023.
There
are
six
carriers
offering
individual
health
plans
in
rating
areas.
Q
Q
Thank
you
Jeremy
again
for
the
record.
Nick
stosic,
Nevada,
division
of
insurance
and
I'll
be
spending
the
balance
of
the
time
discussing
the
Property
and
Casualty
market
and
then
the
overall
Market
in
the
state.
This
slide
reflects
the
numerous
lines
of
insurance
that
make
up
the
Property
and
Casualty
segment
and
the
largest
segment
is
automobile
insurance,
which
accounts
for
over
50
percent
of
the
written
Property
and
Casualty
premiums
in
the
state.
Some
of
the
other
significant
lines
of
business
are
homeowners,
insurance,
commercial
non-auto,
coverages
workers,
compensation,
Surety
mortgage
guarantee
and
medical
malpractice
insurance.
Q
The
Property
and
Casualty
direct
written
premiums
have
grown
each
year
in
the
past
nine
years,
growing
from
4
billion
in
2013
to
over
seven
billion
dollars
of
annual
written
premium.
This
past
calendar
year
during
this
nine-year
period,
we've
seen
a
steady
growth
in
homeowners,
insurance
and
commercial
insurance
premiums
that
have
grown
each
year.
Well,
while
medical
malpractice
actually
experienced
a
slight
decrease
in
written
premiums
each
year
from
2012
through
2018
medical
malpractice,
insurance
rebounded
from
low
of
65
million
written
in
2018
up
to
94
million
dollars
of
Premium
written
in
2021.
Q
Automobile
premium
is
made
up
89
percent
of
personal
Auto
lines,
which
would
be
cars,
private
passenger
trucks,
motorcycles,
recreational
vehicles
and
then
the
other
11
percent
of
the
written
premiums
are
written
in
the
state's
commercial
vehicle,
Market
Nevada's
automobile
written
premiums,
experience
significant
increases
in
2016
through
2019,
where
we
saw
annual
increases
of
9.6,
11.6,
14.6
and
9.4
percent.
During
that
period,
While
most
lines
of
insurance
in
Nevada
did
experience,
increases
in
2020
and
2021.
Q
The
state's
automobile
insurance
Market
did
actually
decrease
by
2.5
percent
in
2020,
down
to
3
billion
265
million
dollars
of
Premium
the
pandemic
significantly
reduced
driving
in
the
state
due
to
the
state
home
restrictions
and
many
carriers
in
the
state
ended
up,
providing
either
refunds
or
credits,
which
would
account
for
the
2.5
percent
reduction
of
premiums.
During
that
year,
however,
we
had
a
significant
Rebound
in
2021,
with
premiums
growing
by
nine
percent
to
3
billion
560
million
dollars.
Q
Q
B
Q
Ahead
again,
not
knowing
about
a
reduction
and
a
a
recession
hitting
if
we
just
look
at
some
of
the
impacts
right
now
on
insurance
costs,
both
in
the
United
States
and
in
Nevada,
we're
still
experiencing
supply
chain
disruptions,
which
has
increased
both
the
rebuilding
cost
of
homes
and
the
cost
of
automobile
parts.
So
that
is
having
an
impact.
We're
also
seeing
severe
weather,
impacting
insurance
with
events
in
Nevada,
for
example,
home
insurance
in
wildfield,
fire
areas
are
seeing
increase
and,
and
obviously
that's
due
to
both
drought
conditions
and
the
increased
temperatures
and
then.
Q
Q
The
last
time
that
occurred
during
the
Great
Recession,
we
had
three
straight
years
of
a
reduction
of
premiums,
although
two
of
the
years
were
very
minor
in
2008
the
the
premiums
reduced
by
one
half
of
one
percent
2009
they
reduced
by
5.2
percent
and
then
2010
they
reduced
by
one
tenth
of
one
percent.
So
that's
the
last
time
we
could
really
look
back
at
a
downturn
and
see
what
the
potential
impact
on
premiums
might
be.
Q
C
5.1
percent
insurance
premium
taxes
have
continued
to
be
a
relatively
stable
source
of
Revenue
to
the
state
and
I'm,
not
sure.
If
you
would
like
to
ask
questions
at
this
point
or
wait
till
the
presentation
by
The
Exchange.
C
Been
here,
okay,
I
think
we're
good.
Thank
you
very
much
and
we'll
go
ahead
and
proceed
with
the
Silver
State
Health
exchange
presentation.
C
All
right
good
morning,
Madam
chair
and
members
of
The
Forum,
my
for
the
record.
My
name
is
Ryan
High
I'm,
the
executive
director
of
The
Silver,
State,
Health,
Insurance
Exchange,
also
known
as
Nevada
Health
Link,
our
fourth
presenter
Gina
Castaneda
she's,
actually
in
the
state's
CPM
class
this
week
and
won't
be
presenting
so
I'll,
be
the
the
last
presenter
for
this
section
of
the
presentation.
Q
Our
values
are
to
be
consumer,
focused
innovative,
provide
diversity
in
terms
of
engaging
with
a
wide
range
of
stakeholders
to
help
with
our
enrollment
and
then
to
be
a
business
friendly.
Q
Individuals
can
purchase
Affordable,
Care
Act,
certified
qualified
health
plans
or
qualified
dental
plans
through
the
exchange.
We
also
promote
a
vision
product
and
that's
been
a
recent
change
for
us.
If
eligible
consumers
can
receive
subsidy
assistance
to
help
offset
monthly
premium
costs
through
advanced
premium,
tax
credits
or
aptc
in
Nevada,
healthlink.com
is
the
only
site.
Nevada
can
get
access
to
financial
assistance
through
the
federal
government
and
we
are
solely
self-funded.
We
receive
no
state
general
funds
and
only
limited
federal
funds
to
support
operations.
Q
And
here's
a
quick
map
here
of
enrollment
by
County
throughout
the
state
Clark
County,
is
obviously
the
our
largest
population
there
of
enrollees
and
Then,
followed
by
Washoe.
Q
A
little
bit
about
our
2022
plan
selections:
this
is
a
breakdown
of
the
different
metal
levels
that
consumers
did
purchase.
Plans
you'll
see
the
silver
plans,
which
is
also
where
not
only
do
consumers
receive
aptc
but
also
cost
sharing,
reductions
or
csrs.
That's
silver.
So
that's
why
you
see
that's
our
biggest
sector
right
there
and
premium
and
financial
assistance
here.
C
This
chart
here
shows
our
year-over-year
enrollment
this
past
year
for
plan
year,
2022,
which
we're
currently
in
we
enrolled
over
a
little
over
a
hundred
and
one
thousand
consumers,
and
this
was
about
a
24
increase
from
the
previous
year
and,
as
my
colleagues
at
the
division
of
insurance
had
talked
about,
the
American
Rescue
plan
act
and
increased
subsidies.
We
attribute
this
large
growth
here
directly
towards
that,
where
consumers.
L
Were
receiving
expanded
subsidies
across
the
board
and
for
the
first
time
because
of
the
American
Rescue
plan
act,
consumers
that
were
making
over
400
percent
of
the
federal
poverty
level
were
receiving
subsidies.
For
the
first
time,
and
now,
with
the
recently
passed,
inflation
reduction
act,
the
IRA.
This
will
be
extended
for
another
three
years
through
plan
year,
2025.
L
L
About
our
enrollment
demographics,
here
again
over
a
hundred
and
one
thousand
consumers
enrolled
last
year
about
half
and
half
between
male
and
female,
and
our
largest
age
bucket
here
was
between
35
and
50
year
olds.
L
L
A
little
bit
about
pre
and
post
arpa,
so
here's
some
statistics
here
that
pre-arpa
in
plan
year
2020,
let's
say
for
instance,
a
little
over
85
percent
of
our
consumers,
receive
subsidies
again
this
bumped
up
to
about
90
or
9
out
of
10
consumers
receiving
aptc
about
a
five
percent
increase
and
then
the
Statewide
average
premium
pre-arpa
was
366
dollars.
L
That
was
reduced,
that
monthly
premium
on
average
down
to
293,
so
a
savings
of
about
72
dollars
per
month
with
those
increased
arpa
subsidies-
and
this
just
gives
a
little
bit
a
few
specific
examples,
but
I
think
it's
impactful
to
see
how
this
really
affected.
Nevadans
you'll
see
I'd
like
to
point
out.
The
third
pull
Point
down
a
family
of
four
in
Las
Vegas
went
from
a
monthly
premium
of
348
dollars
down
to
a
zero
dollar
monthly
premium.
L
Let's
see
here,
the
the
fifth
bullet
point
down
a
family
of
five
in
Elko
County
went
from
a
little
over
thirty
six
hundred
dollars
a
month
in
premiums
down
to
483
dollars
and
the
last
bullet
point.
29
year
old
in
Las,
Vegas
went
down
from
320
a
month
down
to
39
a
month
in
monthly
premiums.
You
know
when
we're
talking
about
kitchen
table
economics.
These
are
some
real,
concrete
examples
here
of
how
the
American
Rescue
plan
act
and
then
subsequently,
the
inflation
reduction
act
are
impacting
health
care
costs
for
exchange
consumers.
L
So
for
plan
your
open
enrollment
plan
year
2023,
we
have
a
163
different
qhp
plan
offerings
across
seven
carriers.
L
L
We're
going
to
have
the
final
average
rate
on
the
exchange
did
increase
by
9.2
percent,
but
when
that
increases
so
do
subsidies,
so
consumers
won't
feel
that
impact
as
much
because
subsidies
will
increase
as
well
and
we're
going
to
have
seven
Navigator
grantees.
These
are
community-based
organizations
that
help
consumers
enroll
and
then
seven
broker
grantees
and
these
grantees
are
Brokers
throughout
the
state
and
we
do
have
a
a
healthy
and
robust
partnership
with
Brokers
to
the
tune
of
over
800
that
get
trained
and
certified
with
us.
But
these
seven
broker
grantees.
L
L
So
the
inflation
reduction
act
again.
This
is
the
act
that
extended
those
subsidies
for
another
three
years
and
the
National
Academy
for
State
Health
policy
or
Nash.
B
estimates
that
Nevada
consumers
between
250
percent
and
400
percent
of
the
FPL
federal
poverty
level
will
experience
about
a
50
percent
decrease
in
out-of-pocket
premiums
and
then
for
those
consumers
that
are
up
to
150
percent
of
the
federal
poverty
level.
They
can
get
silver
plans
for
zero
premiums
and
reduce
deductibles.
L
And
one
one
point
of
note
here:
there's
a
what's
called
the
family
glitch
and
this
is
where
consumers
that
receive
employer-sponsored
health
care.
If
it's
deemed
unaffordable,
they
can
shop
on
the
exchange.
L
But
up
until
now
the
IRS
has
had
against
guidance
that
only
deemed
affordability
based
on
the
individual
employee
and
not
the
remaining
members
of
the
family.
So
if
you
could
imagine
a
family
of
four
seeing
what
is
Affordable
or
not
based
on
just
the
employee
and
not
the
other
three
members,
this
is
being
fixed.
Actually,
today,
the
final
rule
is
coming
out.
So
now,
if
it's.
B
J
Like
that,
typically,
they
would
be
account
transferred
over
to
The
Exchange.
Where
would
be
that
next
step
in
providing
coverage
for
our
coverage
options
for
consumers,
but
since
the
phe
has
been
in
effect,
these
rich
determinations
have
not
been
made.
We
have
been
promised
by
CMS
the
center
for
Medicare
and
Medicaid
services
and
HHS
for
a
60-day
notice
to
let
us
know
when
the
phe
will
unwind.
J
We
are
working
closely
with
our
our
sister
agencies
over
at
Medicaid
and
Division
of
Welfare
and
supportive
services
to
coordinate
messaging,
and
they
will
coordinate
how
those
account
transfers
will
come
over
in
the
most
efficient
ways.
We
can
service
those
nevadans
that
may
be
determined
ineligible
for
Medicaid
and
that's
the
conclusion
of
my
presentation
welcome
to
take
any
questions.
J
Mr
High
I
just
have
a
question.
I'm
just
curious,
just
broad
categories
of
the
the
types
of
folks
or
the
situations
folks
are
in
where
they
they
choose
to
use
the
exchange.
Do
you
have
some
some
broad
categories?
I
know
that
age
group
that
you
listed,
that
was
the
largest
user
of
the
exchange
kind
of
surprised
me
I
mean
these.
Are
these
independent
contractors
that
don't
have
you
know
corporate
coverage
or
these
retirees
or
the
you
know?
Who
who
are
your
main
customers?
That's
a
great
question.
Thank
you,
madam
chair
you're.
J
Exactly
right,
these
are
independent
contractors,
our
marketing
campaign,
especially
for
this
upcoming
open
enrollment,
and
it
builds
upon
or
one
from
last
open
enrollment
we're
targeting
gig
workers.
Imagine
your
Uber
drivers
or
your
Lyft
drivers
or
your
doordash
drivers.
You
know
we're
also
targeting
service
workers
we're
targeting
maybe
a
restaurant
or
workers
that
may
not
have
employed
sponsored
Health
Care
through
that
imagine,
maybe
independent
contractor.
J
That's
a
real
estate
agent
that
doesn't
have
you
know
this
part
of
a
a
real
estate
firm,
but
maybe
he's
not
offered
health
insurance
as
a
you
know,
through
a
company
because
they're
independent
contractor
so
you're
exactly
right,
that's
who
we're
targeting
great
and
then
I'm,
not
sure
if
this
is
a
question,
maybe
Russell
for
you,
but
just
to
be
clear.
As
you
know,
there's
some
new
Forum
members
as
well.
J
J
Okay,
I
think
we're
gonna
go
just
one
agenda
item
out
of
order
so
that
we
have
the
remaining
items
kind
of
with
one
group
of
presenters.
So
we're
going
to
skip
to
agenda
item
12.
J
right
after
this
I'm
going
to
propose
that
we
take
maybe
a
10
or
15
minute
break
and
and
then
reconvene
after
that.
So
we're
gonna.
We're
gonna,
hear
now
on
the
modified
business
tax
rate
reduction,
Provisions
in
Nevada
right
Nevada,
revised
Statute
360.203
from
Erica
Scott
Economist
with
the
Department
of
Taxation.
J
J
J
For
this
statute,
every
September
30th
of
each
even
numbered
year,
the
department
must
evaluate
whether
an
adjustment
to
the
modified
business
tax
rate,
or
rather
mbte
rate
is
necessary
based
upon
the
amounts
collected
for
the
MBT
Commerce
tax
and
the
branch
Bank
excise
tax
in
the
previous
fiscal
year.
In
order
to
do
this,
the
amount,
the
amounts
of
MBT
Commerce
tax
and
Bank
excise
tax
collections
for
the
previous
fiscal
year.
In
this
case
fiscal
year,
2022
are
totaled
and
compared
to
the
amounts
that
were
forecasted
by
the
economic
forum.
J
If
the
collected
amount
exceeds
the
economic
Forum
forecast
by
more
than
four
percent,
then
an
MBT
rate
reduction
is
triggered.
The
MBT
rate,
then,
must
be
reduced
proportionally
for
General
business,
finance,
Financial
financial
institutions
and
Mining,
so
that
the
combined
collected
amount
would
have
been
only
four
percent
higher
than
the
forecasted
amount.
The
reduced
MBT
rate
then
becomes
effective
for
upcoming
fiscal
year.
In
this
case,
July
1st
of
2023
or
the
start
of
fiscal
year.
2024
the
bank
excise
tax
and
the
Commerce
tax
rates
are
not
affected.
J
I
have
provided
the
simplified
table
to
show
the
collected
amounts
for
fiscal
year,
2022
of
MBT
Commerce
and
Bank
excise
taxes,
which
is
net
and
e-commerce
tax
credits
and
any
other
tax
credits
taken
that
year,
taxation
collected
1.039
billion,
while
the
forecast
was
for
880
million
collections
exceeded
the
forecast
by
a
little
over
18
percent.
J
J
And
I
want
to
acknowledge
that
the
actual
calculated
modified
business
tax,
reduced
rates
based
on
the
reduction
calculation
methodology
used
since
2016
were
actually
1.169
percent
for
MBT
General
business
and
1.553
percent
for
MBT
financial
institutions
and
Mining.
However,
to
comply
statutorily
with
the
intent
of
NRS
360.203
in
subsection
4,
the
rate
must
not
be
below
1.17
percent.
Therefore,
the
new
MBT
rates
will
be
1.170
for
General
business
and
1.1
1.554
for
financial
institutions
and
Mining
to
maintain
the
proportional.
L
Madam
chair,
if
I
may,
for
the
record
Russell
ginden
with
the
physical
analysis
division
to
just
follow
up
and
comment
on.
This
is
that
for
those
four
members
that
went
through
when
we
had
the
rate
reduction,
determination
for
in
September,
8th,
September,
18,
2018,
and
so
now
we
have
this
one.
L
So
what
that
means
is
that
the
forecasters
from
the
Department
of
Taxation
Governor's
finance
office
in
the
fiscal
Health
division
will
have
to
produce
forecasts
for
FY
23
at
the
current
higher
rates
and
then
at
the
lower
rates
for
FY,
24
and
fy25.
So
what
we've
been
talking
in
in
it?
And
if
it's
supported
by
the
members
of
the
economic
Forum,
we're
thinking
to
make
it
easier
for
the
floor.
L
Members
to
understand
each
forecaster's
forecast
is
to
put
together
maybe
a
separate
table
to
be
presented
at
the
November
and
December
meetings
of
what
the
forecast
would
have
been
for
all
three
years
at
the
higher
rates,
because
it
might
be
easier
for
you
to
visually.
Compare
those
three
forecasts
over
the
years
and
then
we'll
show
you
what
it
would
be
for
24
and
25
at
the
lower
rates
and
so
Madam
chair.
L
If
that's
okay
with
you,
then
we
will
proceed
to
add
that
table
to
the
information
packet
when
we're
going
to
the
modified
business
tax
as
an
agenda
item
I
think
that
would
be
very
helpful.
Thank
you.
Okay.
Thank
you,
madam
chair.
L
Okay,
so
it
looks
like
it's
just
a
couple
minutes
before
noon.
I
would
propose
that
we
take
a
10
minute
break
and
and
re-adjourn
or
come
back,
and
is
it
called
an
adjournment
recess.
I
come
back
into
the
meeting
at
12
10.
with
that
this
meeting
is
currently
under
recess.
L
L
Okay,
let's
come
out
of
recess
and
go
back
on
the
record
for
the
October
13
2022
meeting
of
the
economic
forum,
we're
gonna
start
with
agenda
item
11..
The
report
and
discussion
of
FY
22
actual
collections
compared
to
the
economic
forums
May
4th
2021
forecast
adjusted
for
legislative
actions
approved
during
the
2021
session
and
Court
decisions.
L
Thank
you,
madam
chair
members
of
The
Forum
for
the
record.
I
am
Michael
Nakamoto,
Chief
principal
Deputy,
fiscal
analyst,
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
of
the
legislative,
Council,
Bureau
and
I
will
be
going
through
agenda
item
11
today,
which
is
the
report
and
discussion
of
FY
22
actual
collections
compared
to
the
economic
forum's
prior
forecasts.
L
The
tables
that
I
will
be
referring
to
which
I
will
bring
up
on
the
screen
are
found,
beginning
on
page
141
of
the
economic
Forum
packet,
and
let
me
bring
those
up
real
quick
for
the
members
of
The
Forum
who
are
returning.
L
You
have
seen
these
tables
before
I
will
go
through
them
in
just
a
little
bit
of
a
detail
for
the
new
members
table,
one
which
you
can
see
up
on
the
screen,
which
is
again
beginning
on
page
141,
is
a
comparison
of
actual
collections
versus
the
December
3rd
2020
and
May
4th
2021
forecasts
for
both
FY
21
and
fy22,
not
just
for
the
economic
Forum,
but
for
each
of
the
forecasters
who
are
presenting
a
forecast
to
the
economic
Forum
at
the
respective
meetings
that
are
listed
there.
L
So
for
all
of
the
taxes
and
fees
that
are
listed
here,
it
is
the
agency
who's
responsible
for
administering
the
the
tax
or
collecting
the
revenue
of
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
of
the
legislative,
Council
Bureau,
as
well
as
the
budget
division
of
the
governor's
finance
office,
you'll,
see
for
the
sales
and
use
tax
and
the
percentage
fees
tax.
There
are
forecasted
forecast
forecasts
listed
for
Moody's
Analytics
as
well,
which
will
be
the
continuing
process
as
we
move
forward.
B
Into
the
December
or
November
December
forecasts
for
this
cycle,
so
what
you
can
see
here
is
the
information
again
for
both
FY
21
and
fy22.
The
white
column
is
the
December
3rd
2020
forecast
the
orange
columns.
L
L
We
were
asking
questions
or
receiving
questions
about
when
Federal
stimulus
would
be
rolled
out,
how
much
it
would
be
availability
of
the
vaccine,
whether
there
would
be
future
waves
of
of
the
coronavirus
that
would
impact
the
day-to-day
lives
of
ordinary
nevadans
and
ordinary
Americans
for
that
matter,
whether
it
would
necessitate
another
round
of
closures
of
businesses,
of
of
schools,
of
things
like
this
and
even
on
a
more
specific
level.
L
We
didn't
even
have
a
quarter
of,
or
we
had
just
gotten,
the
first
quarter
of
the
modified
business,
tax,
insurance,
premium
tax
and
real
property
transfer,
tax
collections
for
the
sales
and
use
tax
and
the
let
non-gaming
we
had
three
months
for
the,
let
not
our
gaming
we
had
had
four
months
and
for
the
gaming
percentage
fee.
We
had
five
months
when
you
fast
forward
to
May
of
2021.
L
We
had
an
additional
five
months
of
information
of
everything,
except
for
the
modified
business
tax,
the
insurance
premium
tax
and
the
real
property
transfer
tax,
of
which
we
only
had
the
second
quarter.
We
would
not
get
the
third
quarter
of
information
until
the
end
of
May,
so
as
you're
looking
through
the
FY
21
actuals
for
each
of
the
revenues
that
are
listed
here
by
and
large,
you
can
see
those
differences
between
the
the
forecasts
and
the
actual
amounts
decreasing.
With
a
couple
of
exceptions.
L
The
insurance
premium
tax
is
one
that
I
think
we
figured
the
forecasters
who
sat
at
this
Podium
and
gave
the
forecasts
didn't
see
a
lot
of
effect
from
the
pandemic,
with
respect
to
insurance,
premium
tax
collections
or
of
relatively
minor
effect
compared
to
some
of
the
other
ones.
So
you
didn't
see
a
lot
of
the
variations
in
those.
So
as
you
go
through
these,
you
can
see,
as
we
got
more
information
and
as
time
progressed
and
we
got
a
better
handle
on
what
the
world
looked
like.
L
Not
that
we
had
a
great
Handler,
On
The
World
by
May
of
2021,
but
at
least
we
had
a
better
idea
in
terms
of
the
vaccine
and
stimulus
and
so
on.
You
could
see
the
the
the
actuals
or
are
the
forecasts
were
getting
closer
to
what
the
actuals
would
be,
and
that
was
true
in
both
FY
21
and
FY
22..
L
So
you
can
see
on
page
141
all
the
forecasts
for
the
sales
and
use
tax,
the
percentage
fees,
the
insurance
premium
tax,
two
of
the
free
three
pieces
of
the
modified
business
tax
than
if
you
turn
to
page
142
you'll
see
the
modified
business
tax
mining
as
well
as
the
pieces
of
the
live,
entertainment
tax,
the
real
property
transfer
tax
and
the
Commerce
tax,
as
well
as
the
total
for
all
of
these
major
Revenue
sources.
On
page
143,
it
starts
getting
into
some
of
the
what
we
call
the
major
miners.
L
These
are
the
revenue
sources
that
the
economic
Forum
has
delegated
to
the
technical
advisory
committee
to
review
the
forecast
and
provide
a
forecast
to
this
body
for
its
consideration.
So
you
can
see
some
of
the
larger
ones
there
on
page,
143,
free
and
then
going
on
into
page
144
until
you
get
to
the
the
bottom
line,
which
is
it's
actually
at
the
top
of
page
145,
where
you
can
see
the
total
general
fund,
Revenue
grows
so
I'll
Focus,
primarily
on
the
May
forecasts.
L
So
you
can
see
that
the
the
actual
gross
collections
for
the
state
general
fund,
the
total
in
FY
2021,
was
4
billion.
529
million
three
hundred
twenty
two
dollar
thousand
seven
hundred
two
dollars
the
economic
forums
forecast
was
that
four
three
zero,
eight
eight
four
eight.
So
it
was
a
difference
of
approximately
220.475
million
that
the
actual
collections
in
FY
21
gross
were
above
the
forecast
in
FY
2022.
L
The
total
gross
general
fund
collections
were
5
billion,
524
million
470
795
dollars
the
economics
Forum
economic
forums,
gross
forecast
of
for
FY
22
back
in
May
of
2021
was
the
four
five
one.
Three
nine
three
eight,
which
was
a
difference
of
approximately
1
billion
10
million
five
hundred
thirty
two
thousand
dollars
so
on
the
rest
of
page
145
and
getting
into
page
146
are
the
tax
credits
that
reduce
the
general
fund
revenues,
which
are
also
forecasts
by
the
technical
advisory
committee
and
then
brought
forward
to
the
economic
forum
for
their
review.
L
So
you
have
the
top
Commerce
tax
credits,
which
are
the
credits
that
allow
a
taxpayer
to
use
to
the
duct
till
up
to
50
percent
of
their
Commerce
tax
liability
against
their
modified
business
tax.
L
So
those
reduce
the
amount
of
Revenue
that
was
collected
and
then
below
that
you
have
the
film
tax
credits,
the
Nevada
new
markets,
jobs,
Act,
tax
credits,
which
are
specifically
against
the
insurance
premium
tax
that
on
page
146,
you
have
the
education
Choice
scholarship
credits,
which
are
against
the
modified
business
tax.
The
Catalyst
account
tax
credits,
which
can
be
used
against
the
MBT,
the
insurance
premium
tax
or
the
gaming
percentage
fee.
L
The
college
Savings
Plan
tax
credits,
which
can
be
used
against
the
MBT,
as
well
as
the
affordable
housing
transferable
tax
credits,
which
can
be
used
against
all
of
the
the
revenue
sources
that
I
had
just
talked
about
the
MBT,
the
percentage
fees
and
the
insurance
premium
tax.
And
then
it
gets
you
to
the
total
of
all
other
tax
credits.
And
if
you
look
at
that,
you
can
actually
see
that
in
both
instances,
the
forecasts
by
this
body
for
the
tax
credits
were
actually
higher
than
the
amount
of
tax
credits
actually
taken.
L
So
in
the
end,
once
you've
subtracted
and
added
all
of
the
credits
you
get
to
the
total
bottom
line
and
that's
the
amount
of
additional
money
that
is
available
for
the
state
to
spend.
We
talked
about
the
FY
21
collections
at
the
last
meeting
so
that
the
economic
forums
forecast
was
approximately
226.2
million
dollars
or
the
forecasts
or
the
collections
were
a
226.2
million
dollars
above
the
forecast
in
fy21.
L
If
you
move
over
to
the
last
line
on
the
right
or
the
last
set
of
information
on
the
right
hand,
side
at
the
bottom
of
page
146
you'll
see
that
the
economic
forums
forecast
of
4
billion
425
million
925
000,
was
approximately
1
billion
at
13
million
410
000
net
above
the
actual
net
collections
from
the
state
general
fund,
which
in
FY
2022
were
five
billion,
439
million
three
hundred
thirty
five
thousand
105
dollars.
L
So
I,
don't
know
Madam
chair.
If
this
is
a
good
time
to
stop.
For
questions
or
whether
I
should
go
through
table
two
first.
L
We
we
can
pause.
Does
anybody
on
the
Forum
have
any
questions.
L
L
L
L
L
L
You
know
we
see
gaming
when
we
look
at
the
numbers
we
see
occupancy
of
89
percent,
but
we
see
Gaming
revenue
way
way
over
that,
and
so
it's
rebounded
are
there
other
taxes
that
you
feel
that,
where
we,
you
know
where
we
estimated
low
or
high
or
you're
starting
your
own,
your
own
review
of
these
tables,
Mr
Levin
you're
out
alive
with
what
we
would
have
expected
based
on
recovery
from
the
pandemic.
Mr
Levitt,
Michael
Nakamoto,
with
fiscal
analysis,
Division
I.
L
Think
as
one
of
the
forecasters
who
presents
revenues
to
this
body,
it
would
be
difficult
for
me
to
say
anything
other
than
I.
Don't
think
a
lot
of
us
who
sat
here
back
in
may
or
may
of
2021
or
even
December
of
2020
could
have
seen
what
would
have
happened
to
the
economy
in
just
about
any
sense.
L
I
mean
there
are
a
few
exceptions
where
okay,
we
were
relatively
close,
I
point
to
the
insurance
premium
tax
as
an
example,
but
I
don't
think
if
any
of
us
had
come
into
the
last
meetings
back
in
December
of
2020
or
may
of
2021
and
said
that
we
would
have
consecutive
months
of
gaming
when
above
a
billion
dollars
per
month
or
the
taxable
sales
would
be
growing
by
double
digits,
or
that
inflation
would
be
where
it
has
been
I
don't
know
if
any
of
those
forecasts
would
have
been
necessarily
taken
seriously,
and
yet
he,
if
those
if
we
had
come
in
with
something
similar
to
that
this
would
have
been
the
closest
forecast
to
what
the
actuals
are.
L
I.
Think,
given
the
information
that
we
had
the
best
estimates
of
what
we
could
get
our
hands
on
and,
frankly,
I
think
what
were
realistic
is
assumptions
that
were
made
by
the
forecasters
as
well,
is
by
The
Forum
back
then
I.
Don't
think
anybody
necessarily
thought
that
the
forecasts
that
were
presented
to
this
body
were
inherently
unreasonable
and
I.
Don't
know
if
Mr
ginden
has
anything
to
add
to
that.
But
I
think
that's
kind
of
the
way
I
look
at.
It
is
a
lot
of
what
we
as
forecasters
came
up
with.
L
We
were
low
and-
and
the
numbers
bear
that
out,
especially
when
you
look
at
table
one
and
you're,
looking
at
all
these
individual
forecasts,
but
given
what
we
knew
I
don't
know
if
we
would
come
back
with
anything
different
I,
don't
think
there
was
any
information
that
suggested
that
what
has
happened
or
what's
transpired
since
May
of
2021
I,
don't
know
if
any
of
us
necessarily
saw
that
happening.
L
You
know
I
myself
personally,
when
I've
looked
at
the
numbers
and
looked
at
the
estimates
that
we
made
in
May
of
2021,
based
on
the
information
we
had
in
2021
I.
Don't
think
we
want
to
want
to
change
it.
You
know,
and
speaking
practically,
of
course,
is
that
I'd
much
rather
be
on
the
high
side
than
on
the
low
side.
Just
relates
to
you
know
the
consequences,
yeah,
I,
guess
and
Madam
chair
for
Mr,
Levitz
question.
L
It's
a
good
question
and
so
I
think
for
me,
as
we
were
watching
the
end
of
FY.
21
numbers
come
in
after
May
21,
and
so
you
can
see
from
the
tables
that
Mr
nakamoto's
presented
that
we
missed
21
low,
but
hey
not
that
bad
again
forecasting
in
a
pandemic
and
in
the
information
set
that
we
were
dealing
with.
L
But
it
was
sort
of
not
only
that
we
were
looking
at
the
collections
but
trying
to
figure
out
the
vaccine
and
the
stimulus,
but
just
to
let
everybody
know
here
that
the
the
employment
data
and
some
of
the
wage
data
that
we
get
from
the
federal
organizations,
the
Bureau
of
economic
analysis
and
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics
and
not
faulting.
Anybody
is
a
difficult
time,
but
the
the
information
we
had
then
sent
and
then
after
they
revised
employment
up
significantly.
L
So
it's
not
even
the
information
set
that
we
had
to
try
and
gauge
what
was
going
on
employment,
some
of
the
economic
indicators.
Then
after
we
got
done
doing
the
forecasts
and
the
legislature
went
home,
then
it
was
revised.
Well
right.
If
we
would
have
had
that
employment
number
is
probably
the
forecast
would
have
been
higher
because
we
would
have
right
those
things
Drive
forecast,
so
I
just
want
to
offer
that
that
it
was
a
very
good
difficult
time,
because
even
the
information
you
had
then
got
revised
after
the
fact.
L
And
so
right
we
came
to
the
June
2022
meeting
of
this
body
and
we
were
reporting.
It
was
around
800
million
and
thought
that
the
above
forecast
would
be
higher.
It
ended
up
being
the
billion
dollar
range,
but
I
I,
don't
know
if
I
see
anything
anomalous,
it
just
seems
like
everything
behaved
better
than
what
we
thought,
because
everything
was
better
than
what
we
thought.
If
you
recall,
we
did
get
to
see
the
March
21
number
for
consideration.
It
was
that
record
billion
dollars.
L
Well,
if
any
of
us
forecasters
would
have
told
you
in
our
forecast,
presented
in
May
21
that
every
month
since
then
was
going
to
be
a
billion
dollars
and
and
only
a
couple
of
them
have
been
below
the
the
pre-pandemic
level
of
billion
dollar
numbers.
We
saw
I,
don't
know
that
any
of
the
four
members
would
have
probably
given
that
forecaster
much
credibility,
because
it
would
have
just
been
very
hard
to
conceive
of
given
the
information
set
that
we
had,
but
also
trying
to
process
through
all
the
uncertainty
of
the
the
stimulus,
the
vaccine.
L
Right
also,
we
didn't
know
that
the
child
tax
credits
were
going
to
be
done.
That
was
not
in
our
information
set.
That
has
to
have
a
role
here,
I
think
in
not
only
right,
it
would
expand
people's
disposable
income
by
getting
those
accredits
and
getting
them
accelerated
as
checks
versus
filing
them
with
your
return.
So
those
are
just
some
of
the
things
that
I
would
offer
as
a
forecaster.
L
Looking
at
what
we
had
available
to
us
in
doing
back
in
April
may
have
21
and
then
what
we
now
know,
but
then
looking
at
the
numbers
and-
and
so
clearly
you
know
to
give
some
reference.
L
The
current
forms
forecast
for
FY
23
is
4.7
billion,
so
I
think
we
know,
what's
probably
going
to
be
happening
to
the
FY
23
forecast
right
now,
24
and
25
I,
don't
know
and
Madam
chair
I
just
thought
I
would
offer
for
the
members,
but
as
well
as
any
of
the
the
public
and
others
that
might
be
listening
and
following
this
that
everything
else
the
same
here,
this
billion
dollars
of
the
actual
over
the
forecast
under
the
statutory
Provisions
that
40
of
any
ending
fund
balance
over
seven
percent
has
to
go
to
the
rainy
day
fund.
L
L
That
will
will
have
an
additional
opportunity
to
restore
or
add
to
the
amount
that's
in
the
rainy
day
fund,
especially
with
if
there
is
any
consideration
of
having
a
forecast
with
the
Federal
Reserve,
trying
to
orchestrate
a
soft
Landing,
so
I'm
sure
I
just
wanted
to
offer
that
a
statistical
context,
as
this
billion
dollars
is
actual
over
the
forecast
and
the
potential
to
revise
up
the
FY
23
forecast
that
it
there's
the
downstream
things
of
helping
other
parts
of
the
state's
budget,
which
is
the
rainy
day
fund.
L
So
next
on
the
list
is
item
13
the
report
on
forecast
accuracy
by
forecaster
for
selected
revenues,
and
for
that
we
will
have
Christian
Tower.
Do
the
presentation
good
afternoon
good
afternoon.
Thank
you,
chair
Rosenthal,
oh
for
the
record,
my
name
is
Christian
Tower,
fiscal
analysis,
division,
legislative,
Council,
Bureau.
L
L
It
provides
information
on
the
historical
average
forecast
errors
for
selected
major
revenues.
And
if
you
look
at
the
table
of
contents
of
the
report,
you
find
the
select
major
revenues
for
which
the
report
lists
the
forecast
errors.
These
are
the
state
two
percent
sales
tax
gaming
percentage
fee
insurance,
premium,
tax,
Casino
life,
entertainment
tax,
cigarette
tax
and
total
general
fund
revenues
for
the
just
mentioned:
Revenue
sources,
the
report
traces,
the
forecast
errors
back
to
the
1995
to
97
biennium.
L
The
report
also
includes
information
on
the
modified
business,
taxes
of
the
state
of
Nevada,
non-financial
Financial
mining
and
the
total
modified
business
tax
or
the
three
modified
business
tax
combined,
the
real
property
transfer
tax
and
the
Commerce
tax,
and
for
the
letter
mentioned
Revenue
sources.
The
report
tracks
the
forecast
errors
since
the
2005
to
7
biennium.
L
L
It
measures
the
average
average
distance
of
the
forecast
to
actual
revenues
without
allowing
positive
and
negative
forecast
errors
to
cancel
each
other
out,
and
what
you
can
see
looking
at
the
table
on
page
two
is
that
the
state
two
percent
sales
tax,
absolute
average
percent
forecast
Arrow
over
the
biennium
is
5.5
percent
gaming
percentage
fee
is
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast.
Error
is
6.7
percent.
L
L
The
expectation
is,
of
course,
that,
once
these
numbers
are
included,
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error
for
the
total
general
fund
revenues
and
for
many
of
the
select
major
Revenue
sources
featured
in
the
report
will
actually
increase
for
all
the
reasons.
Mr
Nakamoto
and
Mr
ginden
and
the
Forum
just
mentioned
an
interesting
question
in
that
context
would
be
to
ask,
and
that
kind
of
goes
now
beyond
the
report
before
you.
L
Look
like
if
it
took
out
liers
such
a
situation
into
in
the
2019-21
biennium,
when
the
Corona
virus,
Came,
Upon,
the
economy
and
and
lockdowns
were
bringing
the
economy
partly
to
a
standstill
or
what
is
when
we
take
out
the
2007
to
2009
biennium,
where
a
financial
crisis
caused
a
great
oppression
and
through
the
average
forecast
error
or
the
the
the
forecast
off,
and
so
we
provided
also
an
analysis
of
how
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error
would
look
like
if
we
take
out
to
the
2019-21
biennium
and
the
Great
Recession,
so
the
2007
to
2009
biennium
and
the
result
is
that
actually,
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error
is
significantly
lower
under
these
quote:
unquote
normal
conditions.
L
So
when
we
take
these
outliers
in
forecast
errors
out,
for
example,
as
you
can
see
on
on
on
page
two,
as
mentioned
this
day,
two
percent
sales
tax,
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error,
including
the
Great
Recession
and
including
the
2019-21
coronavirus
by
by
annual,
is
5.5
percent.
If
we
take
the
Great
Recession
and
the
2019-2021
biennium
out,
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast,
error
goes
down
to
four
percent,
and
the
same
is
true
for
the
total
general
fund
revenues,
including
the
grade
recession,
including
the
Corona
virus
uncertainty.
L
The
total
general
fund
Revenue
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error
is,
as
listed
on
page
two
5.3
percent.
If
we
take
the
Great
Recession
and
the
coronavirus
2019-2021
biennium
out
of
the
equation
out
of
the
calculation,
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error
goes
down
to
four
percent,
and
since
it
was
just
mentioned,
the
gaming
percentage
fees,
as
you
can
see
in
table
2
on
patch
and
then
table
on
page
two,
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error
is
6.7
percent.
L
If
we
take
the
Great
Recession
and
the
2090
to
21
biennium
out
of
the
calculation,
the
absolute
average
percent
forecast
error
goes
down
to
3.75
percent
and
this
information,
which
I
just
presented
in
addition
to
the
report
on
how
the
economic
forums
forecast
would
fare
under
quote
unquote
normal
conditions
is,
is
something
that
is
is
not
provided
in
the
package.
But
of
course,
we
would
be
happy
to
provide
it
to
four
members
if
they
wish
to
receive
that
information.
L
Madam
chair,
if
you
don't
mind
again,
Russell
again
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
I
think
this
is
always
interesting
information,
especially
that
we
have
the
whole
track
record
here
and
we're
not
asking
anybody
as
as
Tower
said,
to
go,
look
at
all
of
it,
but
it
is
documenting
it
and
I
asked
Mr
Tower
to
go.
L
Do
this
calc
of
pulling
out
what
we
thought
were
the
Great
Recession
and
the
pandemic
for
the
biennium
that
we
have
the
19-21
by
any,
and
you
can
see
it
moves
the
forecast
air
about
about
a
percent,
and
you
can
go
well
gee.
Is
that
really
that
much
and
as
a
forecaster
I'd
say,
if
you're
going
to
tell
me
you're
going
to
miss
four
percent
or
five
percent,
that
percent
matters,
and
probably
also
for
people
in
the
business
World,
a
percent
at
the
margin
can
matter.
So
it
is
interesting
and
I
also
agree.
L
It'll
be
very
interesting
to
see.
What's
once
we
add
the
21-23
biennium
to
the
metrics
and
then
back
it
back
out
to
see
what
the
difference
will
be,
but
then
I
thought
I'd
also
just
add
out
here
for
context
for
the
four
members
that
I,
who
knows
what
you
know,
everybody
wants
a
zero
percent
forecast
Terror.
L
So,
interestingly
enough
that,
because
of
the
sort
of
the
pandemic,
Great
Recession,
as
the
total
general
fund
forecast
error,
when
you
let
the
positive
negatives
bounce
each
other
out,
it's
basically
zero,
which
implies
that
the
form
is
not
biased
and
it's
forecast
right
that
you're
you're
not
consistently
overshooting
and
then
and
then
to
have
an
absolute
error.
Five
percent
well
remember:
these
are
biennium
forecast
stairs.
L
So
now
we're
at
a
over
a
five
billion
dollar
general
fund
number
will
be
over
a
10
billion
dollar
biennium
budget,
so
five
percent
500
million
500
million
on
a
10
billion
number
I,
don't
know
that's
not
a
lot
of
wiggle
room.
If
you
think
about
having
to
do
a
state
budget
and
I.
Just
also
add
that
the
the
it's
just
it
doesn't
mean
anything
other
than
it's
a
statement
of
fact,
but
so
the
forecast
there
on
average
for
the
biennium
is
five
percent.
L
That's
what
we
try
and
at
least
maintain
when
we
build
the
budgets
when
the
governor
sends
it
over
and
when
the
legislature
proves.
The
state
general
fund
budget
for
each
year
is
at
least
a
five
percent
ending
fund
balance.
So
it's
just
when
I
looked
at,
let's
go
wow,
so
we're
trying
to
keep
five
percent
a
year
or
state
budget
in
what
in
the
Absolute
Air
is
now
around
five
percent.
L
L
You
know
just
kind
of
how
this
body
has
performed
through
through
the
years
with
that
I
think
we're
ready
to
move
on
to
agenda
item
14.
the
presentation
on
personal
income
and
wages
in
relation
to
population,
employment
and
inflation
on
a
national
level
and
in
the
state
of
Nevada
by
Miss
Susanna
powers.
L
Good
afternoon
Madam
chair
and
the
members
of
the
economic
Forum,
this
is
Susannah
Powers,
Deputy
fiscal
analyst
with
the
fiscal
analysis
division.
So
in
this
agenda
item
we
have
a
presentation
on
Trends
in
personal
income
and
wages
in
relation
to
population,
employment
and
inflation,
and
since
Mr
Smith
gave
a
very
comprehensive
overview
of
the
job
market.
I
was
just
going
to
skip
through
those
slides
related
to
employment.
L
I
really
don't
have
anything
to
add
to
those
so
I'm
going
to
be
skipping
through
a
couple
of
the
employment
slides
and
also
we
heard
from
our
state
demographer
related
to
population
Trends
and
outlooks.
So
I
am
going
to
be
picking
up
the
presentation
from
CPI
and
a
selected
CPI
components,
so
this
slideshow
selected
components
for
the
CPI
Consumer,
Price,
Index,
all
items
in
a
red
line,
food
and
green
line,
core
CPI,
all
items,
less
food,
energy
in
Blue,
Line
and
energy.
In
purple
line.
L
Inflation
has
been
barely
noticeable
for
decades,
but
now
is
suddenly
one
of
our
top
concerns.
We
have
seen
a
robust
recover
in
many
economic
metrics,
but
some
of
the
slides
in
this
presentation
will
show
how
we
are
not
doing
as
well
on
inflation-adjusted
terms,
because
inflation
has
eroded
our
purchasing
power.
The
next
two
slides
get
more
in
detail
into
the
pieces
that
have
been
driving
the
inflation
rate
in
this
chart.
The
red
line
represents
the
CPI,
the
measure
we
know
as
the
headline
inflation
indicator
of
all
items.
L
It
was
up
8.6
percent
year
over
year
in
the
second
quarter.
If
we
add
today's
inflation
report
that
we
saw
on
the
news,
the
CPI
measure
is
year
over
year
down
a
little
bit
down
to
8.3
percent.
The
Blue
Line
represents
the
core
inflation,
which
removes
the
volatile
food
and
energy
components.
Based
on
this
measure,
we
had
six
percent
inflation
compared
to
a
year
ago,
when
looking
at
the
second
quarter,
but
the
with
the
new
update
and
the
core
inflation
rate
year
over
year
actually
went
up
to
6.3
percent.
L
As
you
can
see
in
this
purple
line,
which
is
the
energy
component,
it
has
been
the
largest
contributor
to
change
in
the
CPI,
and
the
energy
prices
were
up
35.4
percent
year
over
year
in
the
second
quarter,
with
the
update
it
today,
it
went
down.
I
think
it
was
considerably
I,
don't
have
the
number
written
down
here,
I
think
it
was
in
a
25
range
for
the
third
quarter
and
the
food
prices
have
been
elevated
as
well.
L
In
the
second
quarter,
there
were
up
ten
percent
year
over
year
and
it
went
up
in
today's
report
for
the
third
quarter.
I
think
the
food
prices
were
up
about.
11.2
percent
did
those
calculations
early
in
the
morning
so
starting
to
forget
them,
but
something
in
that
range
and
the
next
slide
shows
the
pieces
and
their
respective
shares
of
the
total
personal
income
for
the
U.S
personal
income
here
includes
all
earnings,
including
salaries
and
wages,
Investments
and
other
sources.
L
The
largest
share
of
personal
income
is
wages
and
salaries
that
is
represented
by
the
red
line
prior
to
the
pandemic.
That
Sarah
was
about
50
percent
of
all
personal
income
and
now
is
slightly
higher
than
what
it
was
before.
The
pandemic
government
transfers
in
the
form
of
money,
income
and
in-kind
benefits
accounted
for
about
17
percent
of
total
personal
income
prior
to
the
pandemic
response
by
the
federal
government,
a
land
represented
by
the
blue
line
that
share
is
now
almost
back
to
the
pre-pandemic
level.
L
In
a
blue
line,
we
can
see
the
magnitude
of
the
impact
the
government
transfer
payments
played
in
2020
and
2021
in
response
to
the
last
wages
and
salaries
due
to
the
pandemic.
Interestingly,
the
share
of
government
transfers
did
not
increase
as
much
in
response
to
the
fiscal
stimulus
enacted
during
the
Great
Recession,
as
it
did
in
response
to
the
pandemic
related
Federal
programs.
L
The
next
slide
shows
a
similar
story
for
Nevada,
except
that
the
drop
in
the
share
of
wages
and
salaries
as
a
percent
of
total
personal
income
was
larger
than
for
the
U.S
and
the
increase
in
the
share
of
transfer
payments.
As
a
percent
of
total
personal
income
in
2020
and
2021
was
more
pronounced
than
what
they
were
for.
The
U.S
shift
into
U.S
total
personal
income
and
total
wages
and
salaries.
L
Personal
income
in
a
red
line
shows
the
two
spikes
coinciding
with
the
federal
stimulus
and
other
programs
in
2020
and
2021.
As
a
result,
we
did.
We
do
not
see
the
typical
Peak
to
trough
and
Recovery
pattern
associated
with
economic
downturns,
and
this
looks
more
like
Peak
to
Peak
and
back
to
trend
line
when
compared
to
2020
q1
the
last
period
before
the
pandemic
started.
Personal
income
is
up
13.7
percent
the
wages
and
salaries
in
the
black
line.
L
L
Next,
the
growth
rates
for
personal
income,
comparing
Nevada
to
the
us.
Since
the
onset
of
the
pandemic,
Nevada's
personal
income
averages
6.7
percent
compared
to
the
5.9
percent
for
the
U.S.
Next,
the
quote
rates
for
wages
and
salaries
comparing
Nevada
to
the
us.
We
can
also
see
that
during
normal
times,
Nevada's
wage
and
salary
growth
rate
tends
to
outpace
that
of
the
U.S.
L
When
looking
at
the
recent
shocks
to
the
economic
system,
the
magnitude
of
the
decline
in
weights
and
salary
growth
are
deeper
for
Nevada
than
for
the
U.S,
since
the
second
quarter
of
2020
Nevada
has
outpaced
the
U.S
with
a
growth
rate
of
7.7
percent
compared
to
6.4
percent
for
the
U.S,
let's
bring
in
the
population
component
and
shift
to
per
capita
personal
income
for
the
U.S
compared
to
the
quarter
preceding
the
start
of
the
pandemic
per
capita.
Personal
income
is
up
12.6
percent
in
the
U.S.
L
L
Next,
the
growth
rates
for
per
capita
personal
income,
comparing
Nevada
to
the
U.S
from
the
first
quarter
of
2020
to
to
most
recent
quarter
percent
change
for
the
US
is
12.6
percent
versus
11.2
percent
for
Nevada,
when
adjusted
for
inflation,
the
U.S
per
capita
personal
income
percent
change
is
negative.
0.2
percent
versus
a
negative
1.5
percent
for
Nevada.
L
Our
next
slide
shows
per
capita
personal
income
growth
rate
since
the
onset
of
the
pandemic
in
terms
of
per
capita
personal
income
growth
rates,
Nevada
is
very
comparable
to
the
U.S.
For
the
last
two
years,
the
U.S
per
capita
personal
income
growth
has
averaged
5.5
percent
compared
to
5.3
percent
for
Nevada
inflation
adjusted
this
per
capita
personal
income.
Growth
is
only
1.4
percent
for
the
U.S
and
1.2
percent
for
Nevada
shift
into
wages
and
salaries
on
per
employee
basis
for
the
US.
L
When
the
pandemic
hit,
there
was
a
large
decline
in
lower
wage
jobs,
leading
to
a
sharp
increase
in
wages
and
salaries
per
employee.
This
is
because
we
can
consider
that
the
cons,
the
cost
of
the
pandemic
induced
recession
was
disproportionately
borne
by
lower
lower
weights
workers
as
they
experienced
a
bigger
share
of
job
and
wage
losses
than
those
with
higher
incomes
and
but,
as
employment
has
recovered.
L
We
have
seen
robust
growth
in
employee
wages
and
salaries
When,
comparing
to
the
quarter
that
preceded
the
start
of
the
pandemic,
wages
and
salaries
were
per
employee
are
up
15.7
percent.
Yet
when
adjusted
for
inflation,
wages
and
salaries
are
up
only
by
2.6
during
that
period,
and
we
can
see
that
same
pattern
of
a
sudden
upward
movement
in
wages
and
salaries
per
employee
in
Nevada
in
response
to
large
losses
of
jobs
associated
with
lower
wage
sectors
such
as
Leisure
and
Hospitality.
L
This
light
summarizes
the
last
two
slides
so
in
the
percent
change
in
wages
and
salaries
per
employee
in,
in
nominal
terms,
from
the
first
quarter,
2020
to
second
quarter
2022
for
the
U.S
and
Nevada.
It
is
interesting
to
note
that
the
widening
gap
between
the
U.S
and
Nevada
that
occurred
after
the
Great
Recession
has
never
narrowed,
and
the
next
slide
shows
or
summarizes
the
last
two
slides
showing
the
percent
change
in
wages
and
salaries
per
employee
on
inflation,
adjusted
terms
from
q1
2020
to
Q2
2022
for
the
U.S
and
Nevada.
L
So
it's
just
a
summary
slide
in
this
particular
slide
in
terms
of
wages
and
salaries
per
employee
growth
rates.
Nevada
is
very
comparable
to
the
U.S.
L
L
This
slide
summarizes
the
slide
two
two
slides
ago
for
the
U.S
versus
Nevada
in
terms
of
nominal
growth
rate.
So
I
already
repeated
those,
and
the
next
slide
summarizes
the
slide
that
followed
for
the
U.S
versus
Nevada
comparison
in
terms
of
those
inflation
adjusted
growth
rates,
so
I'm
just
going
to
skip
those
two
and
I
believe
this
might
be
our
second
last
slide
for
this
agenda
item.
This
slide
shows
how
the
general
fund
and
personal
income
growth
rates
have
performed
over
time.
L
The
first
observation
is
that
the
trend
between
the
two
series
tend
to
oh,
actually,
I,
think
I'm
in
the
wrong
one
hold
on.
Yes,
I
was
in
the
right
one,
so
yeah,
so
this
slide
shows
Nevada
general
fund
Revenue
per
one
thousand
dollars
of
Nevada
personal
income,
and
it
measures
that
so.
In
other
words,
it
measures
the
general
fund
per
1
thousand
dollars
of
personal
income
and
how
it
has
changed
over
time.
L
Okay,
so
that's
that
slide
and
then
maybe
the
last
one
that
we
have
I
believe
this
is
yes,
this
is
the
last
slide.
L
This
shows
how
the
tunnel
fund
and
personal
income
growth
rates
have
performed
over
time
and
what
I
mentioned
earlier
at
the
first
observation
is
that
the
trend
between
the
two
series
tend
to
move
together,
and
the
second
observation
is
that,
while
we
have
seen
record
tax
revenues
and
the
recent
peak
in
the
tunnel
fund,
growth
rate
represented
by
the
blue
line,
has
not
surpassed
the
peak
of
fiscal
year,
2004
that
followed
the
2003
legislative
session
when
there
were
major
changes
made
to
taxes.
That
does
conclude
my
presentation.
L
Foreign
chair
this
for
the
record
again
Russell
again
with
the
fiscal
knowledge,
Division
and
I.
Just
it's
the
chart
that
my
colleague
Miss
Powers,
just
went
through
with
the
general
fund
Revenue
per
thousand
dollars
of
personal
income.
It's
sort
of
to
me
interesting,
so
I'll
provide
some
insights
to
somebody.
That's
here
for
the
vast
majority
of
that.
L
So
as
Miss
power
stated,
you
see
the
big
increase
from
FY
2003
to
2004,
and
that
was
because
there
was
a
fairly
significant
change
to
taxes
such
to
generate
more
general
fund
Revenue
in
the
2003
session
and
special
sessions.
So
that's
the
jump
and
then
you
see
it
stayed
sort
of
level
and
then
we
have
the
Great
Recession.
So
then
it
came
down
and
you
see
the
bounce
back
up
in
FY,
10
and
11..
Well,
that
was
things
that
the
legislature
was
doing.
L
Sometimes
the
special
sessions
to
to
get
general
fund
Revenue
to
keep
the
budget
intact.
So
right,
you
think
you're
you're,
still
sort
of
in
that
coming
out
of
the
recession.
So
the
personal
income,
the
denominator
is
a
little
lower,
but
the
the
governor
and
the
legislature
are
doing
actions
to
keep
general
fund
Revenue
up
to
keep
the
budget.
So
you
see
those
big
ups,
but
so,
if
that's
just
when
I
look
at
this
and
then
immediately
though
after
that,
because
those
were
transitory
things
that
they
did
for
FY,
2010
and
11..
L
So
when
they
came
off
the
books-
and
you
can
see
us
start
to
fall
in
terms
of
per
thousand
and
then
again
in
2015,
that's
when
the
Commerce
tax
was
put
in
place
and
the
MBT
rates
were
increased
as
well
a
few
other
measures.
So
then
you
see
it
come
back
up
in
16,
but
then
immediately
start
to
go
back
down
and
then
sort
of
the
Big
Falls
is
expected
for
FY
2020.
L
But
then
you
go
see
this
big
jump
back
to
FY
2022,
getting
somewhat
close
to
the
20
2003
actions,
not
due
to
anything
that
the
governor
legislature,
it's
due
to
this
coming
out
of
the
pandemic
and
what
we're
seeing
and
so
it's
it's.
This
is
almost
amount
of
chair,
an
additional
chart
that
the
show
yeah.
Nobody
could
have
expected
this
right
because
there's
just
every
time
you
plot
things,
it
just
keeps
reinforcing
hey
really.
What
how
do
you
explain
this?
L
Next
on
the
agenda
is
item
15,
presentation
of
historical,
historical
taxable,
sales,
gaming
market
and
commerce,
tax
statistics,
and
for
that
we're
going
to
have
Mr
ginden
walk
us
through
those
tables.
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
again
for
the
record
Russell
again
in
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division,
legislator,
Council
Bureau,
and
it
was.