►
From YouTube: RECESSION IN CANCELLED ❌ Market Reset @GrahamStephan
Description
In this video, @GrahamStephan talks about the fed reseting the market. Watch Jonathan react... comment your thoughts below!
Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1T0Fyq-sHc
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A
A
I
guess
Graham
has
a
lot
to
say
on
this,
as
he
usually
does
about
a
lot
of
things
when
it
comes
to
the
market.
Smart
guy,
some
of
the
things
he's
gotten
on
about,
though
not
too
sure
anyways
I'm
gonna
go
through
this
with
you
and
I'll.
Give
you
my
thoughts
on
things.
While
we
look
at
whether
this
is
just
a
reset
or
a
great
reset,
that's
taking
place,
let's
check
it
out.
What's.
B
A
B
Slowly,
increasing
Goldman
Sachs
believes
that
oil
might
continue
surging
higher
and
China's.
Lockdown
protests
are
becoming
a
pivotal
moment
for
the
entire
world.
That's
why,
if
you're
curious,
why
the
Market's
about
to
have
a
potential
freak
out
it's
important
to
discuss
exactly
what's
going
on
the
chances
of
a
larger
than
expected
rate
hike
in
just
14
days
from
today,
and
which
signals
have
historically
pointed
to
the
bottom
of
the
stock
market
on
this
episode
of
the
IRS
is
always
watching,
especially
all
right.
B
So
first
we
have
to
talk
about
the
next
rate
hike
that's
coming
up
very
soon
on
December
14th,
because
this
is
quickly
becoming
one
of
the
most
anticipated
meetings
of
the
entire
year.
That's
because
the
Federal
Reserve
has
a
near
direct
impact
and
the
value
of
almost
everything
from
stocks
to
bonds
to
real
estate
and
even
the
amount
that
you
get
paid
in
a
savings
account.
B
A
So
Graham
is
getting
started
on
going
over
what's
happening
and
he's
talking
about
Central
Bank,
and
he
is
of
course
talking
about
what
they're
supposed
to
do
oversee
the
economy.
Regulate
the
banks,
control
the
money,
so,
as
you
know,
being
in
the
crypto
space
as
we
are,
we
know
what
this
has
led
to
and
we
see
what's
going
on
in
the
world
today.
Do
you
really
think
that
Central
Bank
and
the
changes
they're
making
are
going
to
help
with
the
situation?
A
We
are
looking
at
the
possibility
that
they're
going
to
slow
down
with
these
rate
hikes,
we'll
see
it's
hard
to
tell
Graham,
seems
to
think
that
it's
going
to
be
basically
the
same
old,
same
old,
but
we'll
see
anyways
I
just
want
to
bring
up
the
fact
that
these
are
the
guys
the
ones
we're
talking
about
now
are
the
same
ones.
We've
talked
about
in
multiple
videos,
the
fact
that
they're,
the
ones
that
control
the
money
they're
the
ones
that
decide
how
all
this
stuff
plays
out.
Most
of
us.
A
You
know
that
go
about
our
daily
lives,
have
no
idea
that
this
is
happening.
We
just
kind
of
go
about.
You
know
we
make
our
paychecks,
we
we
buy
our
things
and
we
we
live
our
lives.
Meanwhile,
these
guys
are
playing
God.
So
to
speak
with
how
your
money
is
going
to
work
and
yeah
we've
seen
how
disastrous
those
effects
are.
A
Do
we
want
to
continue
to
have
people
like
this
in
charge
of
it,
or
do
we
want
to
have
something
which
everybody
has
the
same
rules
that
they
have
to
play
by,
and
nobody
like
this
can
be
able
to
mess
around
with
those
rules?
That's
what
Bitcoin
is
that's
what
crypto
promises
and
certainly
is
a
better
system
for
going
forward,
which
is
why
you
should
be
thinking
about
that
right
now,
anyways,
let's
keep
going
and
see
what
Graham
has
to
say
about
all
this
money.
B
That
goes
into
and
out
of
our
system
their
priority
over
everything
else
is
just
to
make
sure
that
the
US
has
a
strong
labor
market,
maintains
maximum
levels
of
employment
and
operates
in
such
a
way
that
moves
us
away
from
record
high
inflation.
I
guess
more
simply
put
they
just
want
to
balance
growth
with
making
sure
the
price
of
eggs
doesn't
hit
five
dollars.
B
It
doesn't
so
as
a
way
to
do
that
they
decide
whether
or
not
they
want
to
raise
or
lower
What's
called
the
federal
funds
rate,
which
is
just
a
really
fancy
way
of
saying.
This
is
the
interest
rate
that
Banks
charge
other
Banks
anytime.
They
lend
each
other
money
when
this
rate
increases,
then
lending
becomes
more
expensive.
People
and
businesses
have
less
discretionary
income
and
the
economy
gradually
slows
down,
whereas
if
the
interest
rate
decreases,
you
get
stock
market
experts,
Dogecoin,
Millionaires
and
trading
Halls,
so
a
lot
rides
I.
B
Could
do
in
just
another
two
weeks?
In
fact,
this
is
going
to
be
the
last
rate
hike
through
February
of
2023
and
in
terms
of
what
they've
already
indicated,
along
with
what's
happening
throughout
stocks,
bonds
and
real
estate.
Here's
what
you
need
to
know
and
the
warning
for
what's
soon
about
to
come
to
start,
let's
talk
about
the
stock
markets,
because
this
is
where
things
get
interesting
now,
on
the
most
basic
level,
is
interest
rates,
increase
stocks
generally
decline
because
higher
borrowing
costs
eats
away
at
the
value
of
future
cash
flow
and
as.
B
Fall
on
top
of
that,
the
higher
rates
go,
the
more
bond
yields
increase
and
the
less
appealing
everything
else
looks
as
an
investment.
After
all,
why
take
the
risk
in
stocks
when
you
could
get
a
one-year
Government
Bond?
That
pays
you
close
to
five
percent
with
almost
no
risk
whatsoever
in
terms
of
just
how
much
this
affects
stocks.
A
Yeah
so
just
a
little
note
about
that
fact
about
bonds,
so
those
kind
of
rates
weren't
available
up
until
recently.
So
that's
the
situation
as
of
now,
but
for
the
longest
time,
with
this
big
run-up
that
we've
had
with
the
the
way
that
interest
was
set
yeah
that
they
weren't
able
to
see
that.
So
that's
why
stocks
got
so
over
over
pumped
yeah.
A
B
A
recent
study
broke
down
investors
into
two
categories:
one
considered
the
choice
between
a
risk
career
return
at
five
percent
or
a
risky
return
of
ten
percent.
While
the
second
group
made
the
choice
between
a
risk-free
return
of
one
percent
or
a
risky
return
of
six
percent
in
both
of
the
scenarios,
the
risky
investment
pays,
the
exact
same
five
percent
more,
but
the
results
were
vastly
different.
It
was
found
that
the
low
risk-free
returns
cost
significantly
more
risk-taking
for
higher,
yielding
Investments,
even
though
technically
the
difference
in
payout
was
the
exact
same.
B
Those
findings
began
to
normalize.
Once
risk-free
interest
rates
are
higher,
even
when
the
riskier
Investments
still
pay
the
exact
same
amount
more.
Basically,
the
conclusion
they
found
was
this:
when
risky
Investments
pay
substantially
more
than
the
risk-free
return,
investors
are
more
likely
to
go
for
it.
In
this
case,
the
difference
between
going
from
five
to
10
percent
is
double,
but
going
from
one
to
six
percent
is
a
five
time
higher
return.
A
Right
there
yeah,
so
he
keeps
talking
about
risk-free
Investments,
so
he's
talking
about
bonds
and
government,
bonds
and
whatnot,
don't
know
if
you've
looked
around
lately,
but
our
institutions
are
in
pretty
bad
shape.
The
idea
that
even
those
are
risk-free,
the
rate
of
interest
that
they're
offering
on
them
is
a
good
indicator.
The
fact
that
they're,
not
I,
think
that
the
Assumption
he's
having
is
really
based
on
the
classical
model
of
what
we've
understood
in
the
past.
We
are
not
in
the
same
place
as
far
as
what's
going
on
with
the
economy.
A
We
are
an
Uncharted
Territory
everything
he
talks
about
in
terms
of
like
historically
this
and
you
know
risk-free
that
doesn't
apply
anymore,
so
he's
talking
from
A
playbook,
that's
about
you
know,
rules
that
used
to
work
that
playbook's
gone,
we're
we're
in
a
totally
new
game,
and
we
don't
even
know
what
the
rules
are
now.
So
I
think
that
you
have
to
be
careful
about
understanding
things
in
the
frame
that
he's
talking
about
here,
because
the
truth
is
nobody
understands
what's
going
on
right
now,
nobody
knows
where
we're
going
and
history
is
not
repeating
itself.
A
B
B
Oh
the
more
you
know
anyway,
indicates
the
Thousand
Market
is
likely
going
to
continue
slowing
down
throughout
2023
and
in
terms
of
how
the
Federal
Reserve
is
responding.
There
are
a
few
factors
that
are
beginning
to
work
against
them
and
no
it's
not
robot
landlords
who
are
buying
up
houses.
Instead,
we
have
number
one
China's
protests.
Initially,
this
began
from
the
zero
covet
policy
where
lockdowns
and
tight
regulation
were
strictly
enforced.
This
resulted
in
delayed
manufacturing
and
production,
higher
costs
and
in
return,
higher
inflation
here
in
the
United
States.
A
Hold
on
a
second
did
he
just
blame
the
Chinese
protests
and
the
delays
in
manufacturing
on
the
inflation
in
the
United
States.
What
that's
not
right,
yeah
Graham,
don't
know
what
you're
trying
to
say
here.
That
sounds
like
some
kind
of
like
mass
media
kind
of
a
talker
point
that
had
nothing
to
do
with
the
inflation
in
the
United
States,
so
the
inflation
was
caused
by
the
central
banks
and
the
fact
that,
what's
going
on
in
China
wasn't
the
cause
of
the
inflation
at
all,
but
he
just
said
that
so
I
disagree
on
that
point.
A
You
have
to
understand
that
the
inflation
is
completely
at
the
fault
of
the
central
banks.
They
are
the
ones
that
control
it
they're,
the
ones
that
control
the
money
supply
they're,
the
ones
that
are
making
these
decisions
about
when
they're,
going
to
increase
rates
or
be
able
to
do
all
kinds
of
crazy
things,
but
that
was
happening
with
China.
Basically
is
a
supply
issue
with
the
coveted
lockdowns
that
they're
talking
about
yeah.
That's
caused
the
supply
issue
that
is
correct,
but
that
doesn't
mean
that
that's
what
caused
inflation
at
all.
A
B
The
additional
uncertainty
is
leading
to
a
decline
across
markets,
and
some
investors
believe
that
this
could
also
lead
to
an
increase
in
inflation.
Second,
we
have
oil
prices.
This
metric
has
an
extremely
close
correlation
with
our
inflation
rate,
because
the
higher
oil
prices
go
the
more
expensive
it
is
to
ship
manufacture
and
produce
our
items.
For
instance,
the
cost
of
oil
goes
up
by
10
percent.
All
of
a
sudden,
your
trips
become
more
expensive.
B
Your
grocery
items
cost
a
little
bit
more
to
deliver
your
Amazon
packages,
cost
a
little
bit
more
to
produce
and
that,
in
turn,
scares
Jerome
Powell
to
raise
rates
even
more.
If,
despite
oil,
having
come
down
slightly
from
its
record,
high
prices
are
still
50
percent
higher
than
they
were
a
year
ago
and
with
the
chance
of
a
supply
cut,
prices
might
continue
to
remain
high
for
longer
than
we
think,
and
that
could
cause
the
Federal
Reserve
to
keep
their
interest
rates
higher
for
longer
and.
A
Third,
we
have
how
so
before
we
get
into
the
housing
part.
He
just
talked
about
oil
and
he
talked
about
the
inflation
again,
but
the
prices
he
talked
about
even
with
the
all-time
Highs,
are
coming
down
and
they're
still
50
from
last
year,
that
is,
after
a
ton
of
money,
got
printed
by
the
central
bank
and
actually
caused
everything
to
inflate.
It
didn't
have
to
do
with
the
oil
prices,
specifically
yeah
I'm,
not
sure
why
he
would
tie
it
to
that.
A
I
understand
that
there's
some
people
out
there
who
would
make
that
a
talking
point,
but
that's
not
where
the
inflation
is
coming
from
oil
prices
are
higher
I
understand
what
he
said
about
how
that
impacts
all
the
prices
of
everything.
He
is
absolutely
correct
about
that.
But
the
reason
that
the
price
of
oil
went
up
is
because
the
money
printer
went
up,
the
Monty
printer
went
and,
of
course,
we
had
so
much
money
get
dumped
into
the
the
market.
A
That,
of
course,
goes
down
to
everything
else
and,
of
course
the
oil
prices
would
go
up
because
of
that
so
I,
just
don't
I.
Don't
agree
with
this
point
that
that's
it,
the
Chinese
protests
are
are
what's
causing
inflation
and
oil
prices
are
causing
inflation
that
and
then
that
is
when
the
FED
is
going
to
respond
and
actually
like
increase
rates
and
things
like
that.
A
It's
not
it's,
because
there's
so
much
money
swimming
in
the
system
just
swimming
that
they're
trying
to
be
able
to
keep
it
under
like
they're
trying
to
keep
control
of
it
from
going
into
basically
hyperinflation,
which
is
what
we're
on
teetering
on
and
they're.
Just
like
pulling
these
levers
to
try
to
keep
it
from
going
there.
So
yeah
housing
costs,
I!
Guess
we'll
get
into
that
and
see.
If
what
that's
all
about,
but
I
hope
he
doesn't
say
that
the
housing
costs
are
because
inflation
we'll
see,
let's
go
basic.
B
Level
shelter
makes
up
a
third
of
the
overall
inflation
report
and
even
though
rental
growth
is
slowing
down,
most
landlords
have
indicated
that
they
intend
to
continue
raising
their
rates,
albeit
at
a
slower
Pace
than
before.
Now.
Obviously,
rental
growth
is
measured
on
a
month
over
month
and
year-over-year
basis,
So,
eventually,
prices
are
going
to
begin
to
level
out,
but
in
the
short
term
the
Federal
Reserve
may
choose
to
wait
until
this
happens,
and
that
could
be
anybody's
guess
so
in
terms
of
their
latest
strategy
and
what
they've
indicated
is
most
likely
going
to
happen.
B
B
Great
hikes
and
the
expectations
for
the
near
future
and
the
most
recent
report
gave
us
a
lot
of
juicy
details
to
start.
They
admitted
that
the
most
recent
inflation
report
provided
very
few
signs
that
inflation
pressures
were
abating,
implying
that
they'll
have
to
probably
keep
rates
higher
for
longer
than
expected.
However,
it
was
also
noted
that
a
substantial
majority
of
participants
judged
that
a
slowing
in
the
pace
of
increase
would
likely
soon
be
appropriate,
and
this
soon
is
giving
a
lot
of
investors
hope
that
this
would
happen
in
their
next
meeting.
December
14th.
B
If
this
occurs,
it
would
be
the
first
sign
of
What's
called
the
Federal
Reserve
pivot,
where
they
reverse
the
rate
hike
tightening
cycle
that
was
started
at
the
beginning
of
the
year
and
that
would
probably
to
a
huge
boost
throughout
the
stock
market
and
thrown
almost
everything.
So
what's
the
chance
of
this
happening?
Well,
if
you
ask
investors,
they're
pricing
in
a
67
chance
of
a
50
basis
in
another
two
weeks
with
a
33
chance
of
a
75
basis,
point
rate
hike,
just
like
we've
seen
throughout
the
last
few
months.
B
But
ultimately,
all
of
this
will
depend
in
the
latest
inflation
report,
which
is
going
to
be
released
a
day
prior
on
December
13th.
Because
of
that
I
think
it's
pretty
safe
to
say
that
if
inflation
comes
in
below
expectations,
most
likely
the
Market's
going
to
Rally
through
the
beginning
of
2023.
But
if
it
comes
in
higher
than
expectations,
then
probably
all
bets
are
often
most
likely
we're
going
to
see
a
pretty
quick
sell-off
through
the
end
of
the
year
and
maybe
even
a
little
bit
longer.
Stop.
A
Right
there
so
he's
going
on
about
how
the
markets
are
going
to
respond
to
the
the
FED
minutes
and
whether
it's
going
to
be
a
rate
increase,
that's
going
to
be
higher
than
expected
or
lower,
and
all
this
kind
of
stuff,
and
if
it's
lower,
then
it
means
that
okay
they're
easing
up
and
then
the
markets
are
going
to
go
boom.
You
know
there
was
a
time
long
ago
when
the
FED
operated
independent
of
the
markets.
The
markets
didn't
just
respond
to
how
much
the
money
printer
was
gonna
work.
This
is
completely
broken.
A
Like
you,
gotta
understand,
the
system
is
so
broken
and
they're
pulling
these
levers
on
something
that
isn't
even
working
anymore,
like
I
I
can't
get
all
into
into
all
the
details
about
it,
but
the
fact
is
is
that
we
have
markets
that
are
not
even
markets
anymore.
They
simply
turn
on
whenever
the
the
FED
is
going
to
print
more
money
to
be
able
to
pump
it
up.
It's
almost
like
the
intrinsic
value
of
whatever
the
market
is
just
doesn't
matter
anymore.
A
It's
almost
like
they're,
just
picking
and
choosing
their
favorites
they're
betting
on
the
horse
that
they
like
and
then
they're
pumping
all
the
money
into
those,
and
only
if
they're
going
to
be
able
to
get
cheap
money
and
do
that,
it's
really
pretty
disappointing.
That's
what's
happening
at
a
higher
level.
I.
Just
don't
think
that
you
can't
really
again
we're
in
Uncharted
Territory.
We
are
in
a
place
that
nobody
has
seen
before.
So
as
much
as
Graham
wants
to
talk
about
this.
As
though
he's
understanding
you
know
this
is
what's
going
to
happen.
A
That's
what's
gonna
happen.
He
prefaces
everything
with.
Maybe
this,
maybe
that
you
know
it
could
go
this
way.
It
could
go
that
way
because
he
doesn't
know
as
confident
as
he
sounds.
He
has
no
clue.
Neither
does
anybody
else
so
the
at
the
end
of
the
day
I
mean
all
you
could
really
take
away
from
what
Graham's
talking
about
is.
Nobody
knows.
There's
this.
A
You
know
everybody's
betting
on
how
much
how
much
the
the
rate's
going
to
go
up
or
down
and
based
on
that
there's
going
to
be
a
market
movement
nobody's
even
considering
the
fundamentals
of
the
market
anymore.
What's
that
right,
do
you
really
want
to
try
to
play
in
a
Marketplace
like
that?
No,
of
course
not
because
you
have
no
clue
what's
going
to
happen,
it's
crazy!
It's
just
crazy!
Anyways!
Let's
see
if
Graham
has
anything
more
to
say.
Is
this
a
great
reset
so
far,
yeah
not
really,
but
let's
continue
as.
B
Far
as
when
we
could
see
the
stock
market
bottom
and
which
signals
we
have
to
look
out
for
to
see
just
how
well
or
how
bad
your
portfolio
will
do,
here's
a
few
things
to
consider
now
at
a
first
glance
in
terms
of
a
market
bottom.
It's
no
surprise
that,
right
now
we
have
what's
called
an
inverted
yield
curve,
which
is
correctly
predicted.
Nine
recessions
since
1955,
and
on
top
of
that,
the
yield
curve
is
the
most
inverted.
It's.
A
Built
right
there,
oh
here
we
go
again
we're
looking
at
the
history
and
that
history
indicates
yeah
we're
in
deep
doo
doo
like
never
before
so
again.
You
know
you
can
you
can
look
at
like
how
bad
it
got
in
some
instances
you
could
see
when
we
had
the
2008
crash
and,
of
course,
right
there.
Actually,
the
worst
one
just
before
us
is
the.com
bubble,
but
yeah
our
chart
now
is
tremendously
more
worse
and
why?
A
Because
we
basically
printed
a
hundred
years
of
dollars
inside
of
a
couple
years
right,
like
literally
just
doubled
the
amount
of
cash
that's
out
there
inside
of
a
few
years,
which
never
happened
before
in
history
again,
look
at
that
never
happened
before.
Why
are
we
looking
at
charts
like
this
and
trying
to
say?
Well,
this
is
what's
happened
historically
and
you
know
it
should.
It
means
that
this
should
happen
next.
You
can't,
because
we
are
so
far
off
the
charts
at
this
stage.
You
can't
even
start
to
think
that
way.
A
B
Let's
keep
going
t99
right
before
the.com
crash.
This
occurs
when
short-term
yields
begin
paying
more
than
long-term
yields.
Therefore,
they
invert
signaling
that
investors
see
more
risk
investing
in
the
short
term
than
they
do
in
the
long
term,
even
more
severes
that
we're
currently
100
inverted,
where
every
term
is
paying
more
than
the
30
years.
B
So
as
far
as
where
we
go
from
here,
if
we
look
all
the
way
back
to
the
1960s,
we
could
see
that
when
the
three-month
10-year
yield
inverts
for
more
than
10
days,
it
took
an
average
of
311
days
to
actually
enter
a
recession
and
once
in
a
recession,
it
lasts
for
an
average
of
17
and
a
half
months.
Now
it's
no
surprise
for
most
of
this
year,
which
means
that
yeah
something
has
to
give,
but
in
terms
of
this
equating
to
a
stock
market.
B
B
However,
I
will
say
that,
from
my
own
experience,
nothing
happens
exactly
as
you
think
it
will,
and
all
of
these
historical
Trends
will
be
true
until
the
one
time
they're,
not
the
dollar
cost
averaging
into
index
funds.
Okay,
jokes,
a
sign
I
have
a
feeling
that
a
lot
is
going
to
be
revealed
in
their
upcoming
meeting
in
December
and
hopefully
we're
going
to
be
at
the
upper
end
of
where
interest
rates
might
settle.
B
Until
then,
I
would
expect
to
see
a
lot
more
volatility
and
I'd
also
be
curious
to
see
what
you
think
about
all
of
this
and
whether
or
not
you
see
prices
coming
down
in
your
area.
If
you
feel
like
there
are
an
inflation
is
coming
down,
then
you're,
a
part
of
the
two-thirds
of
investors
who
think
that
December
is
going
to
be
the
moment.
The
FED
takes
the
pedal
off
the
gas
Okay.
A
A
A
Okay
and
you
got
to
keep
in
mind
that
we're
in
a
situation
that
is
nothing
like
history,
so
don't
go,
making
your
choices
based
on
the
history
history
of
the
markets
and
the
way
that
they're
working
out
it's
just
it's
a
bad
idea,
use
your
good
sense.
You
know
start
to
take
in
more
info
than
guys
like
Graham
and
think
about
what
kind
of
future
you
want
to
build.
A
Think
about
your
where
you
are
as
far
as
like
everything
is
concerned,
and
what
is
your
counterparty
risk
to
all
these
systems
right,
because
you
got
the
money
printers
going
Burr,
you
got
the
stock
markets,
just
flapping
it
up
every
time
and
the
rate
goes
down.
So
it's
not
even
about
Market
fundamentals
anymore.
Where
do
you
want
to
be
what
kind
of
future
Do
you
want
to
build
for
your
children?
A
A
So
whatever
you
do,
stay
strong
and
understand
that
this
is
the
way
the
traditional
system
works
and,
of
course,
in
the
crypto
World
we're
all
about
transparency,
it's
all
about
being
able
to
build
a
better
future
that
doesn't
play
all
these
games
right
and,
of
course,
that's.
Why
all
that's
what
a
lot
of
us
want.
So
let's
focus
on
that
and
of
course,
if
you
have
a
different
opinion,
please
share
it
in
the
comments.
I'd
be
happy
to
see
it
like
And
subscribe.
As
always
and
I'll
see
you
in
the
next
one.