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A
The
first
item
of
business
on
the
agenda
today
is
an
evidence
session
on
the
report.
No
Deal
break,
set
economic
implications
for
Scotland
by
the
chief
economic
advisor
I
would
like
to
welcome
dr.
Garry
Gillespie,
who
is
the
chief
economic
advisor
and
Simon
filler,
who
is
deputy
director
economic
analysis
of
the
Scottish
Government,
and
welcome
you
both
to
the
meeting
this
morning.
I
understand.
Mr.
Gillespie
would
like
to
make
an
opening
statement
and
invite
him
to
do
so.
Okay,.
B
B
It
it's
on
the
report,
I'd.
Let
you
just
mix
immortan
and
remarks
to
cover
some
background
to
analysis.
If
I
can,
what
is
different
to
No
Deal
relative
to
the
earlier
work
and
I'll
say
a
little
bit,
though,
why
we
chose
the
particular
scenarios
and
finally,
what
the
results
imply
I'll
take
a
few
minutes,
though,
because
it
obviously
will
follow
up
with
with
questions
so,
firstly,
on
the
background
to
the
analysis,
this
draws
on
what
the
we've
done
within
government
over
the
last
two
years.
B
B
The
central
assumption
was
that
there
would
be
an
orderly
transition
that
you
would
move
from
EU
exit
into
a
different
arrangement,
but
it
would
be
done
through
an
orderly,
an
orderly
basis
and
that's
really
the
central
central
difference
of
walk.
What
that
model
and
does
is
essentially
says
that
over
the
15
year
period,
the
growth
in
the
economy
will
be
lower
due
to
leave
an
EU,
irrespective
of
what
Arrangements
you
get
to.
But
it's
are.
The
transitions
are
managed
transition
and
the
impacts
are
over
are
over
a
period.
B
So
it's
not
immediate
in
the
terms
of
our
negative
impact
or
recession,
whereas
Worth
was
No
Deal.
Essentially,
what
your
focus
Nonna's
is,
alongside
that
kind
of
long-term
structural
changes.
You've
got
the
immediacy
of
the
impacts
and
I'll
say
a
little
bit
more
about
that
when
we
go
into
the
the
papers.
So
the
two
scenarios
that
we
outline
in
the
paper
essentially
reflect
scenario.
One
is
a
short
supply
side
shock
to
the
economy.
B
B
One
sure
scenario
two
essentially
says
well
in
that
initial
scenario,
we
view
review
that
as
I
can
a
short,
sharp
shock
with
the
economy
recovering
when
you
then
go
into
scenario,
two
you're
looking
at
this
being
more
prolonged
and
certainty,
impact
on
business,
cash
flows,
household
confidence
and
some
impact
in
the
demand
so
did
economy.
And
that
brings
that
that
brings
what's
our
set
of
additional
impacts
and
prolongs
the
impact
of
that.
So
that
was.
B
That
was
why
we
did
scenarios
one
in
two,
and
that
was
why
there
can
I
say:
I
was
projections
because
there's
uncertainty
around
how
the
final
form
of
bricks
will
materialize
and
what
the
impact
will
be
across
a
range
of
range
of
sectors.
So
so,
since
the
breaks
that
represents
the
terms
of
trade
change
to
the
economy,
that's
how
we
would
view
in
economic
terms,
you're
changing
the
basis
for
how
for
how
the
economy
operates.
B
The
final
phase
you
sell
or
babo
the
results,
so
the
methodology
and
the
results
that
we
sell
are
very
similar
to
the
other
work
boost
on
by
the
Bank
of
England
and
the
UK
government.
The
results
which
we've
published
on
the
21st
of
a
beauty
as
I
said
bring
all
of
that
bring
all
of
that
together,
say:
oh,
the
kind
of
channel
transmission
mechanisms
for
how
this
would
impact
and
they're
calling
me
and
the
range
of
scenarios
so
so
to
get
to
the
canal.
B
The
key
messages
from
the
analysis
is
what
we
are
saying
is
that
the
spike
can
have
the
best
government
mitigation
or
other
mitigation.
No
deal
will
impact
enough.
A
sharp
shock
to
the
economy
that
will
lead
to
output
fallen
and
the
range
was
and
the
scenarios
that
we've
modeled
is
from
GDP
growth
fallen
in
Scotland
by
two
point:
five
to
seven
percent:
that
we
was
that
type
of
shock.
You
would
see
that
manifests
itself
in
the
labor
market.
B
We
would
see
unemployment
from
its
record
low
levels
at
the
Manor
beginning
to
rise,
as
from
respond
to
the
challenge
of
reduced
demand,
supplies
and
cash
flows,
and
on
the
macro
way,
the
macro
said:
we
see
exchange
rates,
inflation,
migration,
exports
and
FDI
all
been
impacted
by
this.
So
it's
quite
quite
a
significant
shock.
The
our
results
are
broadly
in
line
with
with
the
UK
their
worst
case
scenario
for
New
Deal
is
nine
point.
B
Three
percent
reduction,
which
is
over
a
longer
time
period
and
the
range
for
there
for
the
government's
deal
is
within
a
negative
two
point:
five,
two
to
three
point:
nine
percent.
So
essentially
what
you're?
What
you've
seen
here
is
the
sucking
a
consensus
across
the
analysis.
Certainly
the
published
analysis
from
the
UK,
the
Bank
of
England
and
the
Scottish
government.
The
brexit
will
be
will
have
a
negative
and
fights
or
in
the
economy.
B
The
final
thing
I
haven't
mentioned,
is
just
to
see
and
I'm
sure
we'll
come
on
to
this
is
that
the
impacts
of
breaks
are,
unlike
the
previous
recession,
are
likely
to
have
a
sexual
and
geographical
focus
that
will
be
different,
and
that
reflects
the
nature
of
the
the
shock
and
the
types
of
impacts
that
are
intimate.
Thank
you.
Okay,.
A
Thank
you
and
can
I
ask
whether
other
scenarios
that
you
could
have
analyzed
you
chose
to
that
you've
outlined
for
us
this
morning,
whether
other
options
that
could
have
been
discussed
and
also
the
face
of
a
voluntary
Institute.
If
you
have
written
a
blog
on
the
report,
have
emphasized
that
it's
and
there's
not
a
forecast
and
they've
made
clear
distinction
between
its
scenarios
rather
than
forecasts.
So
it's
what
I'm
interested
in
you
have
can
briefly
refer
to
how
you
the
work
could
be
taken
forward
to
what
the
purpose
of
the
report
is.
B
So,
on
the
scenario
point
it's
interesting.
The
Yuki
government
report
that
was
published
last
week
is
based
on
scenarios
as
well,
so
the
out
forecasts
and
the
law
they
can't
be
forecast
because
you
can't
be
say
on
the
bootless,
given
the
range
in
complexity
or
variables.
So
what
we've?
If
I,
go
back
to
what
I
was
trying
about
scenario,
1
and
2?
What
we
are,
what
we
are
doing
is
saying:
oh
I
can
arrange
from
a
minimalist
short
shock
that
would
impact
padam
where
the
supply
side.
B
So,
if
you
think
about
logistics,
transport
constraints
on
business,
new
administration
course,
adjustments
which
could
be
which
could
be
short-term
and
the
economy,
comes
back
to
a
wider
fill
that
effect
most
economies.
So
innocence
you've
got
a
range
of
scenarios
and
within
there
that
could
be
different.
That
could
be
different
and
facts.
Some
sectors
may
be
less
impacted.
Other
sectors,
warshall
the
demand
side,
could
be
less
important
or
more
important.
B
I've
been
tested
in
your
views
about
maybe
what
what
else
we
could
have
modeled
I
think
we've
tried
to
do
from
an
economic
perspective,
thinking
about
the
supply
side,
the
demand
side
and
then
how
it
come
comes
together.
So
an
articulation
of
the
kind
of
scenario
one
in
two
is
really
try
to
try
and
help
people
understand
the
different
parts
of
different
shocks,
and
that
was
really
for
thinking
about
how
we
would
respond
to
those
shocks
and
to
think
about
how
that
would
that
would
impact
and
the
business
community.
B
A
That's
probably
not
the
purpose
of
the
report
to
consider
mitigation,
but
you've
outlined
the
potential
impact
of
an
audio
break
set
as
consideration
given
to
medication
policies
put
in
by
planning
by
the
Scottish
Government
or
the
UK
government,
and
you
will
be
aware
of
the
report
we've
had
from
Tony
Makai
and
professor
of
economics
and
as
part
of
that,
and
he
suggests
that
that
are
perhaps
mitigation.
You've
not
considered
a
medication
could
be
brought
in.
A
The
report
almost
assumes
that
these
scenarios
happen
if
there's
no
action
taken
by
Scottish
government
or
UK
government
or
insufficient
action
taken,
and
he
suggests
things
like
that.
All
of
the
Bank
of
England,
where
that
would
fit
into
any
of
these
scenarios.
So
suppose
it's
asking
where
what
kind
of
mitigation
you
feel
the
Scottish
government,
a
UK
government
are
currently
undertaking
a
friend
ordeal
scenario
or
should
be
taken.
B
Okay,
so
I
think
on
the
on
the
mitigation
point
I
think
we're
consistent
with
the
UK
government
analysis
that
essentially
says
that
despite
government
mitigation,
no
deal
will
have
a
significant
impact
in
a
number
of
areas.
So
essentially
there's
an
omission
that
you
can't
mitigate
the
fill
impact
of
this,
and
the
reasons
for
that
is,
it's
not
unilateral,
saying
you're
dealing
with
requires
businesses
to
be
prepared.
It
requires
reciprocal
arrangements
from
the
EU
and
changes
to
customs
and
procedures.
B
So
it's
not
it's
not
something
that
you
send
the
gift
of
the
Eucharist
or
Scottish
government
to
Philly
to
feel
the
mitigate
I
think
the
point
around
what
the
policy
response
I
think,
that's
what
Professor
McCain
he's
getting
at
what
would
be
the
policy
response
and
the
advent
of
a
new
deal,
and
would
that
essentially
shift
the
projections
from
the
worst
case
closer
to
the
to
the
bear
case.
It's
probably
worse,
so
so
in
thinking
about
that.
B
The
immediate
response
and
thinking
about
that
the
immediate
response
to
government
is
to
think
about
the
supply-side
constraints
is
to
think
about
what
businesses
need
to
function.
New
information,
the
processes,
customs
assess
logistical
shocks,
howie's
those
the
UK
government
paper
also
say
it's
the
the
bottleneck
in
terms
of
transport
links
into
the
UK.
So
you
would.
B
It's
probably
worth
saying
that
the
so
the
the
last
financial
crisis
that
led
to
major
recession,
2008
name
output,
the
UK
level
failed
by
over
6
percent
unemployment
in
Scotland
increased
from
four
to
over
eight
percent,
and
there
was
a
massive
response
from
government
at
that.
If
you
think
of
a
few
remain,
we
had
interest
rates
cut
overnight,
practically
from
four
and
a
half
to
half
a
percent.
There
was
a
quantitative
easing
program
which
essentially
pumped
money
into
the
economy.
B
B
This
is
done
purely
to
sell
the
transmission
mechanisms
and
how
those
would
impact
on
the
economy,
and
the
evidence
from
previous
recessions
is,
is
that
governments
are
governments
can't
feel
the
mitigate,
thus
there's
an
actual
business
cycle
issues
that
will
comment
through
this
and
the
government
can't
fully
fill
the
respond
to
that.
Thank.
C
You
and
I'd
like
to
move
on
to
trade,
but
just
before
I
do
that
I'd
like
to
pick
up
on
this
year
and
employment
that
dr.
Gillespie
raised.
Obviously,
and
anyone
would
expect
an
economic
shock
to
result
in
more
unemployment,
but
there's
the
other
side
of
that
which
is
arising
under
employment,
that
we
saw
off
the
back
of
the
last
economic
crisis,
more
people
in
part-time
work
in
precarious
work
in
low
wage
work.
Have
you
done
any
modeling
around
the
impact
that
that
would
have
when
people
are
still
in
work?
C
B
So,
just
to
be
clear,
underemployment,
it's
those
in
work
that
won't
work
more
hours
and
you're
right.
We
seen
that
increased
substantially
during
the
last
financial
crisis
and
even
as
the
headline
unemployment
rate
came
back
down,
underemployment
was
slow.
Gundum
underemployment
rate
now
is
back
to
its
broadly
back
to
where
it
was
pre,
recession
levels.
So,
but
it's
an
important
point,
because
that's
that
would
be
the
mechanism
I
think
for
how
the
labor
market
would
be
impacted,
so
people
are
more
flexible
contracts
in
the
face
of
cash
flow
or
business
issues.
B
Firms
would
start
which
Seavers
for
people
and
essentially
a
more
flexible
labor
market,
means
that
the
headline
rate
may
not
rise
as
quickly
as
before
gas,
but
you'll
pack
up
and
underemployment
and
people
starting
to
start
to
demand
or
lose
hours
and
now
and
that
context.
Behind
your
specific
question,
we
haven't
modeled
on
underemployment
at
this
stage,
but
it's
correlated
to
the
unemployment
rate
essentially,
and
we
seen
that
from
the
previous
recession.
Thank.
C
You
and
to
move
on
to
issues
of
trade
there's
been
quite
back
coverage
recently
of
the
UK
government
struggles
in
trying
to
rule
over
the
trade
deals
that
the
European
Union
has
69
key
deals
that
have
been
highlighted.
Think
of
those
they've
ruled
over
eight.
At
the
moment.
Nine,
if
you
can't
deal
with
the
Palestinian
Authority
and
those
deals
very
mean
the
Swiss
one
is
the
significant
enough:
that's
about
eight
billion
pounds
worth
of
UK
imports
and
sex
and
a
half
billion
of
exports,
but
the
others
are
Madagascar.
C
30
million
pone
of
em
quartz,
19
million
pounds
of
exports.
Have
you
done
any
modeling
and
will
you
continue
with
live
modeling
of
the
deals
that
the
UK
government
does
manage
to
rule
over
and
the
impact
they
have
on
Scotland?
As
you
said,
there's
significant
geographical
and
sectoral
differences
here,
yeah,
so
I
think.
B
The
model
in
the
work
that
we
looked
at
essentially
looked
at
what
would
be
the
implications
of
leaving
the
EU
over
a
15
year
period
and
within
that
we
look
to
the
evidence
from
the
UK,
National,
Institute
and
other
bodies,
for
what
would
be
the
likely
impact
and
trade
with
the
EU
productivity,
FDI,
etc.
So
in
that
sense,
what
we
essentially
model
is
reductions
to
the
EU
now,
obviously
there's
a
broader
sense
of
trade
agreements
which
are
and
to
go
to
the
EU
schedule
with
the
WTO
and
the
rhone
agreements.
B
We
haven't
modeled
in
and
detail
that
implicit
and
the
and
the
can
a
dislocation
that
you
would
think
you
would
have
and-
and
it's
fair
to
say,
the
UK.
The
UK
government
seis
the
safes
in
the
ruin
paper
that
was
published
last
week
that
the
the
falling
off
of
some
of
these
trade
deals
as
a
real
risk
for
some
sectors
of
the
economy.
B
I
think
they
say
they
can
see
that
the
deal
was
Japan
won't
be
read
in
that
time
and
that
that
would
obviously
have
implications
for
now
and
the
immediate
impact
of
these
deals
fallin
is
the
is,
is
that
it's
the
kind
of
basis
for
the
trade
and
and
the
arrangements
are
entire
lives
and
other
things.
So
so
we
haven't
more.
Do
that
yet,
but
there's
something
we'll
continue
to
look
at
they've.
C
B
So
we
haven't
modeled
up,
but
there's
been
work
done
internally,
looking
at
the
basis
through
which
you
could
essentially
call
import
substitution.
If
you've
got
goods
that
you
can
no
longer
get
to
market
the
ability
to
supply
them
into
that
market.
What
we
see
in
the
paper
in
the
sense
is
based
on
the
analysis
and
impacts
of
V
user
exports
could
follow
up
to
by
up
to
20%
the
correspondingly
along
say
that
imports
would
fall
as
well.
B
So
those
those
issues
at
the
board
there
are
customs
I
would
walk
to
is,
and
essentially
that
would
provide
an
opportunity
for
some
goods
to
be
supplied
locally,
but
but
but
it's
not
as
it's
not
straightforward,
as
it's
really
for
that's
for
businesses
in
firms
to
think
about
other
markets.
There
are
opportunities
internal.
If
you
think
about
the
food
industry
in
the
UK,
it's
done
through
the
supermarkets
wholesale.
That's
very.
It's
very
logistical
II
based
in
terms
of
her
and
puts
command
and
goods
are
made.
C
Just
finally,
what
ongoing
work
will
you
be
doing
you?
You,
like
everyone
else,
are
a
hostage
to
fortune
with
everything
that
you
publish
at
the
moment
and
the
significant
changes
that
happen
week
by
week
and
day
by
day
in
this
process,
and
what
work
will
you
be
doing
going
forward
to
adapt
any
of
the
the
projections
that
you
have
already
made
on
the
basis
of
what
direction
we
could
be
heading
in?
Yes,
so
I
think.
B
We're
29th
of
March
is
three
weeks
tomorrow,
so
in
that
sense,
it's
probably
futile
to
do
more
modeling
of
impacts.
We
set
out
two
scenarios
that
are
quite
particularly
grave,
I
think
in
terms
of
the
potential
impacts
and
really
for
us,
then
it's
looking
at
what
the
final
shape
of
of
EU
exit
takes
and
I
mention
that,
because
there
could
be,
there
could
be
concessions
for
some
sectors
over
our
transitional
period
based
on
last-minute
deals
but
essentially
I.
B
Think
the
key
thing,
and
in
my
role
as
chief
economic
adviser,
is
to
still
look
at
actually
what
happens
and
immediately
after
and
and
use
our
intelligence
data
analysis
to
pick
up
and
and
can
I
verify
on
all
the
types
of
transmission
mechanisms
that
we
think
are
impacted.
So
what
we're
thinking
about?
B
How
we
monitor
and
real-time
the
the
potential
changes
or
impact
the
economy
through
the
firm
base
through
transport
logistics
confidence,
so
that
we
are
not
better
position
to
advise
ministers
and
think
about
what
response
you
would
put
in
place
at
different
times,
because
the
immediate
resilience,
what
within
the
Scottish
government
is.
Obviously,
it's
obviously
focused
on
the
major
of
resilience
challenges.
The
economy
is
part
of
that,
but
accordingly
will
wag
the
the
Nashorn
bugs
thank.
D
You
and
good
morning,
and
thank
you
for
coming
in
and
wanting
to
turn
to
the
issue
of
migration
and,
as
we
know,
all
of
Scotland's
population
growth
over
the
next
ten
years
as
expected
to
come
migration
and
therefore
any
significant
impacts
on
that
would
presumably
have
other
significant
impacts
in
terms
of
our
economy.
So
I
just
wonder
in
terms
of
the
No
Deal
scenario.
What
impact
you
understand
that
that
would
have
on
international
net
migration?
Yes,.
B
So
a
green
Tylor
that
the
net
migration,
what
we've
assumed
in
the
paper,
essentially
Scotland
benefits
at
the
moment
from
our
own,
just
over
thirteen
thousand
migrants
a
year
coming
into
their
corn
in
me,
we've
we've
done
previous
analysis.
That
shows
the
the
benefits
of
migrants
in
terms
of
enhancing
the
labor
supply
and
the
contribution
they
make.
I
think
your
point
about
the
impact
and
the
working
age
population
and
also
the
broader
decline
in
population,
but
we
have
local
authority
areas
in
Scotland
at
the
moment
with
the
clean
and
population.
B
So
migration,
first
and
foremost,
is
really
important
for
for
your
population
base.
Secondly,
really
important
for
your
working
age
population
and
thirdly,
partly
soft
investors
that
are
kind
of
source
of
demand
and
they're
calling
him
as
well.
If
you
look
at
the
performance
of
the
UK
in
Scottish
economies
over
the
last
15
years
apart,
a
substantial
part
of
that
growth
differential
just
reflects
differences
in
the
population
growth,
so
the
size
of
the
UK
economy
or
the
rest
of
the
UK
economy
has
expanding
expanding
more,
but
I
think
your
point
around
what
we
would.
B
What
would
No
Deal
impact
on
migrants?
Will?
We
know
from
the
last
the
evidence
over
the
last
couple
of
years,
the
the
the
number
of
migrants
is
starting
to
reduce
coming
into
the
UK
in
Scotland.
We
know
that
the
depreciation
and
sterilant
has
a
negative
impact
on
the
attractiveness
of
the
UK
in
Scotland
for
migrants,
and
we
know
that
the
migrant
population
is
really
important
for
certain
sectors
of
the
economy
and
they
bring
potato
of
skills
which,
which
we
wouldn't
necessarily
be
halted
in
place
quickly.
B
It's
interesting
that
the
Scottish
fiscal
commission
and
their
forecasts
really
have
a
much
more
pessimistic
view
about
the
work
in
each
population
and
how
that
will
constrain
growth
in
Scotland
and
that's
really
driven
by
assumptions
around
less
migrants,
an
ability
to
do,
but
maybe
less
I'm
income,
and
if
you
want
to
add
anything
about
the
modern
work.
Yes,.
E
So
I'm
on
your
points,
I
served
for
longer
term
impacts
and
suchlike.
We
published
some
analysis
last
year,
looking
at
what
different
migration
levels
could
have
for
Scotland's
economy
in
the
long
term.
Are
we,
since
she
uses
a
baseline,
a
scenario
where
Scotland
was
remaining
in
the
EU
and
then
we
then
look
to
see
okay,
what
if
you
migration
fell
by
50%
and
what,
if
it
fell
by
a
level
by
a
level,
should
be
required
to
achieve
the
UK
government
Sven
target?
E
Growth
from
Scotland
I
think
the
only
final
thing
I'd
add
to
that
is,
and
sometimes,
when
we're
talking
about
migration
levels,
it's
not
just
the
fact
that
migration
boost
your
overall
labor
supply
is
also
observed
that
we
bring
in
very
discreet
skills,
very
specialist
skills
and
also
allow
your
economy
to
basically
be
much
more
connected
networked
into
the
wider
international
economy.
So
it's
very
much
more
than
just
the
totality
of
migrants
in
school.
It's
also
about
sort
of
wider
economic
benefits
and
impact.
We
have
on
Scotland.
D
Well,
indeed-
and
it
is
important
when
we
talk
about
migration-
to
remember
that
there
are
other
issues
aside
from
the
direct
issues
involved
and
in
that
regard,
the
committee
had
the
opportunity
to
have
a
discussion
with
Professor
Manning
of
the
migration
Advisory
Committee.
Some
weeks
ago
now
and
I
think
many
committee
members
were
quite
surprised.
One
words
that
I'm
on
questioning
he
conceded
that
there
had
been
no
specific
modeling
as
regards
their
work
in
terms
of
the
position
in
Scotland
and
I.
D
Think
we
offering
that
many
of
us
men
that
rather
surprising
I
mean
were
you
aware
of
because
their
work
fade
into
the
UK
government's
policy
paper.
Were
you
aware,
if
you've
been
doing
work
as
far
as
Scotland
is
concerned,
that
there
was
this
development
in
terms
of
Westminster,
but
that
it
had
taken
really
know
what
kind
of
the
Scottish
position?
D
B
Were
aware
that
there
was
out
the
results,
I
report
been
being
compiled,
data
in
that
issue
and
I
believe
that
need
to
check
that.
Actually,
the
work
that
we
done
was
actually
provided
to
the
committee
through
our
ministers
around
the
impact
in
Scotland
the
the
different
view
of
migration,
the
extent
to
which
the
hundred
and
eighty
thousand
EU
workers
whatever
and
the
sectors
and
what
the
the
contribute
so
I
think
that
was
shared
with
them.
I'm
almost
here
banning
ever
come
to
you
and
no.
D
F
Wonder
if
I
could
go
back
and
thank
how
much
community
to
dr.
Gillespie
earlier
points
that
you
made
in
your
introductory
remarks,
but
the
measures
taken
in
the
context
of
the
two
stars
who
painted
out
in
these
in
these
papers
there's
a
plan
I
take
it
for
both
scenarios,
a
government
plan.
Yes,
yes,
and
we
have.
We
have
we
seen.
B
That
so
let
me
explain:
let
me
try
and
explain
a
little
bit
around
the
plan
so
and
setting
of
the
scenarios
your
set
notes
in
a
little
so
that
you
can
understand
the
channels
and
transmission
mechanisms
through
which
the
the
this
will
impact
and
the
accordingly.
You
can
then
look
at
and
say
well
what
what's?
The
role
of
government
can
government
mitigate
that
where,
where
is
government
focused
best
play?
B
So
if
you
take,
for
instance,
if
it's
logistical,
if
it's
our
customs
issue
the
pork,
then
you
need
to
efforts,
are
so
tickets,
a
customs
issue,
the
portly,
you
don't
have
inspection
ports
in
place
that
you
don't
have
the
right
customs
and
the
government
response,
so
that
would
be
to
try
and
enhance
that
capacity.
If
it's
an
impact
at
the
firm
level
where
firms
don't
have
the
information
on
all
each
other
understanding
of
what
being
a
third
country
trader
never
implies,
then
that's
a
different
type
of
support.
B
F
Mean
I
appreciate:
there's
all
these
things
you're
describing
a
context,
but
is
there
a
plant?
Can
I
see
a
published
plan
of
all
these
different
scenarios?
Good
because
it's
all
very
well
doing
scenarios,
but
unless
is
then
a
plan
that
business
can
respond
to
and
feed
into?
We
can
have
all
the
economists
we
like
in
the
world,
but
yeah
you
know
people
need
to
get
on
with
their
business
on
the
whatever
day.
This
happens,
a
lot
yeah.
B
I
suppose
your
question
about
a
plan
is:
is
there
a
plan?
There's
a
plan
in
place,
but
the
the
key
thing
about
the
plan
is
that
the
plan
can't
Mehta
get
across
all
of
these
areas
and
it's
important
to
think
about
the
government,
any
response,
so
the
the
reason
I
was
trying
to
give
you
the
the
sense
of
the
channels
is
that
this
is
so
complicated,
motivated
that
the
government
wouldn't
be
able
to
respond
across
these.
B
All
of
these
all
of
these
different
areas,
and
actually
the
timing
of
when
you
would
response,
would
obviously
reflect
what's
actually
happening
on
the
ground,
so
you
would
have
to
respond
in
real
time.
So
you
can
plan
you
can
plan
for
logistics.
You
can
plan
for
extra
customs
officials.
You
can
plan
for,
engage
in
the
enterprise
base.
You
can
plan
for
a
number
of
issues,
but
until
you
actually
have
to
put
up
plan
any
place,
it's
not
it's
not
really
that
until
you
actually
know
what
you've
met
again
and
again,
so
suppose
that
support
no.
F
I
think
I
nearly
understand
that,
except
that,
in
a
in
a
logical,
logical
order
of
things,
I
assume
that
policy
construction,
the
government
is
to
have
the
scenarios
that
you've
articulated
this
morning.
We
articulated
I
should
rather
say
in
this
paper
and
then
for
policy
makers
and
the
government
to
draw
up
the
plan.
That's
going
to
do,
there's
going
to
deal
with
both
those
scenarios.
Yes,
yes
and
that's
been
done,
yeah
and
that's
published.
Yes,.
B
So
part
of
the
reason
for
part
of
the
desire
to
publish
this
analysis
was
to
try.
So
we
spoke
to
local
government
about
less
analysis.
We've
spoke
to
our
enterprise
agencies.
We've
been
presenting
this
work
to
ministers
within
government,
but
the
point
of
no
the
scenarios
and
central
assumptions
is
to
enable
people
to
think
about.
How
would
you
respond
to
that
and.
G
B
Scotland
would
be
part
of
any
government
response.
There
are
an
individual
cabinet
secretaries
of
obviously
concerned
with
their
own
particular
issues
and
the
reason
issues
were
Sookie
ministers,
their
own,
the
impacts
in
their
particular
sector.
So
it's
it's
not
that
there's
not
a
magic
level
in
the
Scottish
government
build
and
we
need
to
be
coordinated
with
the
UK
as
well
of.
B
F
B
So
let
me
explain
why
we
so
those
sectors,
the
sexual
analysis,
first
and
foremost,
is
based
on
what
sectors
we
think
will
be
most
impacted
by
No
Deal,
so
obviously,
fishing
agriculture
I
have
particular
specific
arrangements
with
only
at
the
moment,
so
so
in
that
sense,
they're
part
of
this
of
this
impact.
It's
when
the
fishing
says
it's
more
nuanced,
because
obviously
we
have
within
that
sector.
Your
fish
processing
as
well
well-
and
the
arrangements
are
much
more
a
much
more
complex,
complicated,
but
essentially
for
that
sector
in
particular.
B
Processing
on
the
London
sector,
because
the
real
issues
of
a
how
you
get
goods
to
market
and
if
you
think
about
a
frictionless
market
the
manner
and
if
you
think,
about
introducing
the
export
health
certificates
for
different
elements
of
the
fish
sector
and
the
process,
and
in
fact
that
that
would
have
so
that's
why
that
sector,
along
with
agricultural
sectors,
are
high
rest,
No,
Deal
sectors.
They
were
also
identified
in
the
Bank
of
England
work
and
other
work
has
been
sectors.
It
would
be
really
really
impacted
by
this
now.
B
F
B
No,
no
I
think
so
so
I
think
there's
a
level
of
detail
that
you're
alluding
to
within
each
of
these
sectors,
so
so
for
fishing
fishing,
certainly
a
sector
that
would
be
impacted
over
over
what
time
period.
That
would
become
good
as
a
different,
a
different
question.
So
I'm
not
this
is
a
honest
and
economic
assessment
at
the
macro
level,
including
sectors
know
within
within
every
sector.
B
Mountain
and
remarks,
I
made
the
point
that
essentially
EU
exit
reflects
changes
to
the
terms
of
trade
for
sectors
across
the
economy
and
essentially
the
long
term.
Modeling
shows
that
the
sector's
will
adjust
and
other
sectors
well
well
emerge,
but
the
the
fashion
sectors,
one
sector
that
will
be
impacted.
Okay,.
F
It's
just
that
in
the
conclusion
that
there
are
only
three
sectors
that
your
conclusion
specifically
mentions:
I
think
you're,
right
and
I
call
from
food
I've
just
think
to
just
simply
say
fit
to
lump
fishing
in,
as
you
have
just
to
say,
it's
all
bad.
It's
not
true!
That's
you
absolutely
cannot
say
that
it
doesn't
matter
what
I
think
yeah,
okay,
don't
get
me
wrong.
I,
don't
know
what
I
think.
F
G
Sure
we've
talked
about
this
morning
in
the
UK
and
the
US
Coast
government,
putting
together
the
guidelines
and
when
you're
looking
at
local
authorities,
many
local
authorities
already
put
in
some
you're
planning.
They've
also
talked
about
some
of
the
contingencies
that
they
require
to
have
in
place
to
ensure
that
some
of
their
sectors
and
some
of
the
parts
and
the
departments
within
local
authority
are
some
we
protected
depending
on.
G
If
there
is
to
be
a
new
deal
scenario,
so
can
I
ask
you
to
broaden
out
a
little
bit
and
give
us
a
flavor
of
what
authorities
across
Scotland?
Do
you
think
and
do
you
believe
that
there
is
sufficient
preparation
being
done
within
these
local
authorities
to
mitigate
and
to
manage
an
ordeal
situation?
If
and
when
it
occurs?
Okay,.
B
So
so
I
think
it's
fair
to
say
that
the
the
paper
which
we
published
was
about
the
economic
impacts
of
No
Deal
and
we
didn't
say
the
policy
response
and
readiness
of
local
authorities
or
or
the
Scottish
government
that
wasn't
part
of
the
analysis.
What
we
do
know
is
that
local
authorities
are
preparing
the
resilience
committee
that
the
has
been
set
up
for
priests
across
Scotland
involved.
Local
authorities
and
essentially
local
authorities,
are
part
of
any
response
and
they're
looking
at
across.
B
They
are
the
work
force,
the
services
they
deliver,
the
provisions
that
they
have
to
provide
and
also
there
are
specific
rules
around
environment,
health
checks
and
things
that
would
be
impacted
on
that
basis.
But
it's
worth
saying
that
the
No
Deal
has
an
immediacy
of
impact,
and
essentially
until
probably
September
last
year,
that
the
central
assumption
would
be
that
there
would
be
a
deal
of
sorts
and
a
transition
period,
which
would
essentially
mean
that
everything
would
stay
as
it
is
until
through
into
January,
21,
2021
or
whatever.
B
G
As
I've
said,
you
know
that
local
government
already
are
going
through
this
whole
process
on
a
date
three
weeks
time.
Hence,
if
that,
if
we
do
not
find
ourselves
in
that
situation,
do
you
anticipate
a
massive
knock-on
effect
on
local
government,
or
do
you
think
that
it
will
take
some
time
for
it
to
filter
through,
because
obviously
the
social
and
healthcare
sectors
are
one
of
the
biggest
parts
of
local
government?
G
So
so
that
is
an
impact
that
you
identifying
may
well
take
place,
but
that
impact,
how
would
that
impact
be
managed
in
the
time
scale
in
six
months
a
year
or
whatever?
We
will
where
there
would
be
a
crisis,
because
we've
heard
in
other
sectors
that
the
the
crisis
would
happen
nearly
immediately
and
in
some
of
the
the
the
scenarios
that
people
have
tried
to
bring
forward
and
say
that
would
be
the
case.
Yeah.
B
On
the
on
the
economic
development
business
raided
business
readiness,
business
Gately
is
obviously
a
part
of
the
the
way
that
enterprise
system
and
they
have
connected
and
to
readiness.
What
that's
been
done
was
Scottish
Enterprise
and
others
around
thinking
about
it,
respond
to
the
business
base.
So
so
again,
the
point
is
that
that
those
impacts
may
not
happen
immediately.
The
business
impacts
should
be
more
front-loaded.
I,
depending
on
particular
sectors
and
her
quickly
are
dislocated
sectors
sectors
become
its
was.
I
mean
if
you
think,
back
to
the
last
financial
crisis
we
had.
B
B
So
so
those
lags,
I
think
in
my
earlier
response
to
my
sister
companies-
will
respond
through
cartoneros
forests
and
maintaining
people
with
then
we're
setting
the
business,
maintaining
the
skills,
and
then
it
comes
to
a
point
where,
if
it's
structural
change
that's
needed,
then
you
see
the
increase
in
demand.
But
you
see
the
impact
of
that
through
the
wider,
wider
labor
supply
and.
G
A
number
of
local
authorities
have
been
awarded
good
financial
management
by
audit
Scotland
and
others
who
come
in
and
look
at
the
the
scenarios
and
how
they're
planning
in
how
they're
processing
there's
a
number
of
local
authorities
that
find
themselves
not
in
that
situation.
They
find
themselves
in
a
very
difficult
situation
financially.
So
an
ordeal
situation
would
have
a
massive
impact,
potentially
on
some
of
these
local
authorities
that
do
not
have
that
resilience
and
Doudna
have
that
resource
to
pull
upon
other
local
authorities
may
have
as
a
cushion
going
forward
in
the
sole
process.
B
Only
in
the
sense
that,
if
you
take
the
New
Deal
scenario
to
to
its
fullest
extent
and
the
II
have
the
channels
that
we've
identified,
particularly
rising
unemployment,
falling
out,
put
more
stress
in
the
business
sector,
then
all
of
that
feed
through
to
public
finances
as
well,
and
in
that
sense
you
will,
you
will
have
impacts.
It
said
it's
its.
It
said,
and
it
would
be
a
totally
different
type
of
responsibly
required
from
local
government
from
all
old
forms
of
government.
Your
ns,
your
innocence,
are
different
you're
in
a
different
ball.
Para
deference
in.
B
I
mean
I
couldn't
really
comment
on
the
privation
of
the
different
local
authorities
for
their
own
services.
What
which
is
a
local
authorities
are
obviously
key
providers
of
services
and
they
be
part
of
any
response
we've
identified
and
the
paper
local
authorities
that
we
we
ranked
as
being
the
most
they
came
to
the
most.
In
fact
that
was
Annie,
and
that
was
that
was
more
on
on
workforce
that
was
rather
than
financial
yeah
that
was
based
on
workforce.
Then
that
was
based
or
and
the
Bank
of
England's
no
deal.
B
I
sectors
most
likely
to
be
invited
in
no
deal,
and
it
was
based
on
the
proportion
of
that
employment
and
no
sectors
by
a
local
authority.
Obviously,
people
commute
and
out
of
local
authorities,
so
it
was
trying
to
get
the
I
was
trying
to
patent
it
a
handle
on
the
economic
dislocation
that
could
happen
within
those
sectors
and
and
in
a
sense,
the
the
the
sexual
pattern
of
that
reflects.
Where
those
sectors
are
it's
the
north,
northeast
and
some
central
belt
as
well.
So
where.
G
B
H
A
good
morning
panel
and
just
a
certain
issue
of
a
foreign
direct
investment
I
think
the
report
that
some
producers
been
very
useful,
pier
16
that
highlights
the
officers
coffins
they
success
and
the
tithing
FD
I
know
over
the
course
the
last.
What
number
of
years,
because
the
example
of
some
160
new
FDI
investment
projects
in
Scotland,
that's
a
seven
percent
increase
from
2016.
H
B
So
the
the
main
source
we
used
for
looking
at
and
what
investments
got
endures,
the
ey
attractiveness
survey
and,
and
that's
good
for
giving
you
the
both
the
number
in
the
volume
of
projects.
It's
probably
worth
saying
those
are
Kenneth,
there's
a
stock
of
FDI
in
Scotland,
and
the
way
to
think
about
is
the
the
businesses
that
are
owned
by
Nanyuki
operon.
B
So,
for
instance,
we
have
I
think
they're
in
two
thousand
six
hundred
foreign
owned
businesses
in
Scotland
to
employ
around
three
hundred
and
thirty
thousand
within
those
those
approximate
about
1100
are
EU
and
and
the
country
121
thousand
jobs,
they're
calling
me
Scotland.
So
that's
the
stock.
What
we've
seen
from
the
figures
that
you've
referred
to
is
that
Scotland
continues
to
be
an
attractive
place
for
Lenwood
investment
and
investments
really
important
for
the
economy.
B
Alongside
the
traditional
benefits
of
the
investment
employment,
a
lot
of
investment
it
comes
to
Scotland,
then
exports
also
brings
benefits
to
the
supply
chain.
There's
also
way
their
benefit
around
expulsion
companies
to
different
systems,
new
management
techniques,
supply,
say
benefits.
So
there's
a
recognized
value
that
n-word
investment
I've
largely
brings
benefits
to
to
the.
According
being
that
guys,
one
thing
I
would
say
those
the
Scotland's
done
well
and
then
what
investment?
B
The
this
type
of
investment
could
be
more
fruitless
than
previous.
Where
you
were,
you
invest
a
substantial
and
then
off
off
plan,
I.
Think
in
the
report.
We,
what
I
think
we
took
on
from
the
Bank
of
England
work
around
their
estimates
around
the
potential
reduction
of
N
word,
investment
Scotland's
been
in
the
ordering
to
80
percent
yeah.
H
Okay,
and
certainly
no
thanks
for
that
then
understand
the
points
are
weakened
and
on
the
issue
of
the
R&D,
that's
crucial
TM
solve
the
processes
going
forward
yet
and
without
certainly
from
the
electronics
understood
that
I
used
to
work
in
I
went
out
in
the
event,
then
universe,
the
ha'la'tha
retain
me
for
any
assembly
manufacturing
went,
and
that's
also
that
that
take
place
unfortunate
in
scope.
But
just
in
terms
of
the
very
mention
20%
yeah,
can
you
provide
some
further
detail
or
not
just
in
terms
over
on
audio
breaks?
It's
an
article.
Yes,.
B
So
this
so
in
one
sense,
this
goes
back
to
the
the
ey
survey
and
the
Salido
survey
about
the
attractiveness
of
the
UK
and
Scotland
and
the
look
invest
in
Burt
investment
flows
into
the
EU
and
there
in
the
report
that
was
published
last
year,
they're
essentially
saying
that
the
the
believes
the
UK
has
already
been
impacted
by
Greg
Suhr
in
terms
of
and
investor's
perceptions
of,
of
the
attractiveness
of
the
UK
as
allocation.
The
UK
still
does
really
well
on
the
survey.
B
B
Then,
essentially
the
ability
to
come
to
Scotland,
invest
and
have
frictionless
trade
across
the
EU
is
obviously
a
big
attraction
for
them,
but
investors
and
a
sense
of
what
the.
Why
report
was
reflecting
this,
that
that
that
uncertainty
and
what
the
shape
of
arrangements
would
be
and
the
potential
dislocation
as
as
clean
negative
perceptions
around
the
UK
in
Scotland,
and
and
will
impact
investment
flows.
So
company's
decisions
will
go
to
other
places
rather
than
here.
So
that
says,
that's
the
same
set
of
the
rationale
behind
up
so.
H
This
is
really
one
or
two
comments
that
you've
made
a
little
and
I
think
that
extremely
important
and
Tizen.
But
this
aspect
to
go
up
and
well.
The
electronics
under
shares.
Once
again
been
that
example.
You
stated
earlier
at
the
EU
exit
essentially
effects
theorems
of
trade
yeah
and
you
offered
to
Toby
Scott.
H
An
idea
that
Scotland
is
very
much
open
for
business
and
in
terms
of
the
investment
hope
that,
in
terms
of
these
hopster,
that
the
art
opening
up
have
you
seen
a
genuine
collective
approach
from
the
Scottish
government
and
all
the
different
agencies
to
get
that
message.
Robot
and
to
make
sure
that
the
that
they
tivities
that
are
taking
place
and
the
hops
are
going
to
be
effective.
To
get
that
message
or
yes,.
B
B
B
A
lot
comment
on
government
nurses,
but
what
we'll
see
is
that
trade
missions
and
the
extent
to
which
you
can
you
can
help
businesses
get
an
opportunity
in
a
different
market.
Its
is
the
kind
of
day-to-day
job
of
governments
that
are
in
the
world
and
that's
why,
even
before
the
hubs,
the
Scottish
developmental
national
had
operations
across
the
eighteen
countries
and
in
that
context
anything
that
helps
companies
through
cultural
trade,
political
visits,
ministerial
visits,
it's
gotta
be
beneficial
to
their
coordinate,
Thank
You
Kenneth.
I
B
So
I
would
refute
that
completely
I.
Think
in
Moulton
and
remarks
I
said
the
basis
of
the
report
based
on
two
years:
work
based
not
solely
on
earlier
analysis,
looking
at
the
UK
government,
HMT,
the
National
Institute
standard
and
poors.
What,
with
the
phrase
around
their
Institute
I,
believe
the
way
it's
been
set
out
and
the
paper
is
clear,
sets
out
channel
scenarios
and
the
ranges
the
ranges
are
actually
more
disc
impaired
to
other
work.
B
The
the
UK
government's
own
estimates,
I
think
for
the
for
Scotland
and
the
paper
then
Alice's
it
was
published
suggested
no
deal
would
be
over
eight
percent
here
so,
and
the
Bank
of
England's
unemployment
projections
are
than
the
same
on
the
same
basis.
So
I,
don't
there's
not
many
there's
not
many.
Academics
are
independent
commentators
that
are
disputing
that
this
would
be
negative.
I
Well,
thanks
very
much
for
I
mean
I
notice
that
in
your
report
you
range
from
two
point:
seven
percent
to
eight
point:
five
percent
reduction
GDP
in
Scotland
by
2030
and
then
tracing
that
report.
Leader
filter
I
mean
the
the
government
produced
implications
for
bricks
and
trade
of
an
ordeal
X
onto
anything,
March
1918
only
26
of
February
and,
as
you
so
rightly
see
what
they've
suggested
as
the
range
for
scold,
as
indeed
around
eight
percent
within
fifteen
years.
I
So
they
seem
to
the
close
up
to
your
more
pessimistic
range
as
Mr
McKay
with
actually
a
professor
McCabe
Patel.
Now
you
talked
about
some
of
the
kind
of
a
organizations
that
you
can
of
Elizabeth.
Did
you
speak
to
the
entity
of
Fiscal
Studies?
Did
you
have
direct
conversations
with
the
Treasury
itself
because
Elia
and
you
one
of
your
response,
I
think
to
Tavi
score.
He
said
that
he
had
you
hadn't
and
I.
I
Think
do
you
mean
I,
don't
mean
to
sell
you
personally,
but
they
Scottish,
government
and
others
in
the
UK
gone,
perhaps
have
not
heard
much
from
the
Bank
of
England,
for
example.
So
I'm
wondering
how
much
broader
array,
your
your
connections,
where
in
terms
of
addressing
this
particular
issue?
Yes.
B
So
we
we've
regular
engagement
with
the
Bank
of
England
through
their
agent
in
Scotland
and
that's
primarily
on
their
understanding
of
the
economic
conditions
within
Scott
I.
Think
the
bank
and
the
work
that
was
published
before
Christmas
have
been
quite
clear
around
their
range
of
scenarios
in
M
parks
and
the
governor
gave
evidence
last
week,
a
parliamentary
committee
again
reinstating
their
views.
In
fact,
I
think
he
said
of
if
I'm
back
here
in
June
I
think
the
their
forecast
for
the
UK
economy
to
a
ninety
nine.
B
Oh
one
point
two
percent,
and
he
essentially
saying
it
was
a
back
in
June
and
we've
had
a
new
deal
like
sir
I'll
be
coming
back
with
much
reduced
forecasts
and
will
be
in
a
different,
a
different
place.
So
so
we're
aware
of
the
work
and
the
use
of
the
Bank
of
England
through
our
connections
and
through
the
published
output,
and
essentially
we
monitor
all
what
the
the
that
has
been
done
and
published.
B
The
New
Deal
would
have
a
severe
impact
in
a
number
of
areas
and
essentially
they
call
again
the
immediacy
points
around
their
globe:
nature
of
the
transition,
the
lapse
and
trade
agreements,
access
to
market
the
late
stage
for
many
parties
and
businesses
in
preparing
for
this,
so
so
that
zero,
zero
material
facts,
there's
nobody's
saying
that
this
will
be
okay
and
if
a
zoki,
then
there's
no
clear
path
about
why
that
would
be
the
case
yeah.
So
so
I
the
so
it's
since
I
think,
there's
general
consensus
whether
what
do
you
want
comin
ISM.
H
E
Favorite
activities,
but
we
have
quite
regular,
engages
engagement
and
official
level
with
Treasury
with
Dex.
You
should
be
discussing
our
analysis
and
their
analysis.
So
a
couple
of
weeks
ago
we
have
a
round
table
in
Scotland,
discussing
analysis
of
international
trade
with
colleagues
from
the
part
of
international
trade
from
the
Welsh
government
from
Northern
Ireland
civil
service.
So
there's
quite
a
little
shearing
which
occurs
and
takes
place
in
terms
of
the
analyst
Condor
paintings
and
models
which
we
use
and
so
on.
B
That's
a
point:
I
should
have
probably
made
there's
a
general
consistency
in
the
methodology
and
approaches
that
are
that
are
being
used
for
the
models.
So
we
use
a
computable
general
equilibrium
model.
The
UK
I've
got
similar
model
which
they're
using
and
not
I'm
the
the
tapes
of
assumptions
and
how
those
models
respond
to
the
tapes
of
shocks
are
broadly
similar,
and
that's
why
you
get
the
what
I
would
call
a
can
a
broad
consensus
of
of
the
results
and
that
than
that
begun
I
mean.
I
One
of
the
things
you've
also
answered
is
that
you
have
concerned
about
a
you
know:
CPI
inflation,
a
significantly
increasing
possible
because
of
the
impact
of
sterling
and
a
depreciation
another
issues.
What
if
we
could
talk
a
bit
more
about
the
impact
on
interest
rates,
potential
impact
on
interest
rates
and
also
inflation
of
an
I?
Do
it
breaks
it?
Yeah.
B
It
certainly
so
I
think
and
the
report
again
we
say
some
assumptions
are
owned:
inflation
and
that's
based
on
the
Bank
of
England,
what
color
and
where
they
see
inflation
going
in
terms
of
mine
ordeal
and
essentially
I
think
it's
an
increase
to
between
four
and
six
percent
or
whatever
from
from
this
coordinate
levels.
So
thinking
about,
why
would
you
see
rising
inflation?
Essentially
we're
still
and
depreciating
and
port
costs
would
rise,
and
will
we
see
that
coming
through
a
number
of
goods?
B
You
may
also
see
some
price
rises
across
sectors
as
the
cost
of
delay
or
additional
costs
are
passed
on
to
consumers
from
businesses.
So
you
would
see
you
would
see
an
increase
in
inflation,
driven
from
our
way
through
stale
and
depreciation
and
increase
cost
of
imported
goods.
Obviously,
inflation
reduces
people's
purchasing
power
and
I
would
put
a
squeeze
on
all
household
finances
that
the
the
linked
interest
rates
and
a
census
again
in
the
paper
from
earlier
Bank
of
England
work.
They
projected
where
they
thought
interest
rates
would
need
to
be
too
much
higher
inflation
levels.
B
Our
own
view,
which
was
published
a
couple
of
weeks,
cause
we
thought
that
the
media
response
would
be
expansion,
monetary
policy
in
this
and
in
the
space
of
a
shock
and
if
anything,
would
likely
come
down
immediately
both
to
support
the
banks.
I
know
those
are
in
terms
of
Mateen
constants
in
the
economy
and
the
governor
last
week.
I
think
give
an
equal
probability
to
interest
rates
coming
down
as
well.
Those
essentially
with
the
monetary
situation
where
there's
a
legacy
from
the
last
financial
crisis.
We've
still
got
really
low
interest
rates
and
I
think
so.
B
There's
an
expectation
at
some
point
that
those
will
tighten
and
come
back
to
what
would
be
a
more
normal
level
but
and
the
advent
of
a
shock
of
the
scale.
We
would
expect
to
see
expansionary
support
from
the
bank
and
others
in
terms
of
moisture
policy
and
I
suppose
know.
Since
the
the
bank's
target
inflation
rate
around
2%,
they
have
a
wider
range
support
and
they're
calling
me,
and
they
would
see
that
as
a
there's,
a
kind
of
one-off
price
level,
adjustment
and
I
don't
think
they
would.
I
Mentioned,
obviously,
that
that
that
could
be
a
real
impact
in
certain
sectors
of
the
economy
as
a
glue
culturally.
The
Treasury's
report,
for
example,
talks
about
potential
m
EU
tariffs
of
70
percent
on
beef
and
45
percent
on
lamb
exports
and
ten
percent
of
automotive
vehicles.
But
one
deal
it's
not
really
been
touched
on
in
its
obviously
huge
from
scored
in
terms
of
its
contribution
to
Scottish
economy
and
employment.
I
As
a
financial
sector
I
mean
the
tragedy
has
basically
said
that
that
him,
what
the
EU
is
doing
is
I
quote
the
Commissioner
stated
that
is
only
focusing
on
areas
of
its
self-interest
for
the
EU
financial
stability
and
any
decisions
taken,
be
the
conditional
obtain
limited
and
they
go
on
to
see
that
the
absence
of
action
by
EU
authorities
to
may
get
risks
at
some.
It
is
a
financial
services.
It
could
be
some
disruption.
I
B
So
it's
a
really
important
sector,
that's
one
of
the
sector's
as
identified
that
would
be
impacted
by
New
Deal
on
the
regulatory
basis
and
a
sense.
The
the
the
legal
and
regulatory
framework
at
Manila
is
financial
firms
to
passport
across
Europe
at
the
moment,
and
essentially
I.
Think
with
the
UK
government.
Paper
says
that
that
you
can
have
a
team
called
equivalents
which,
which
essentially
recognizes
the
mutual
a
regulatory
environment
of
both
countries.
That
would
allow
some
form
of
this
to
continue,
but
the
UK
papers.
B
That's
probably
underestimated
about
the
importance
of
services
and
actually
of
the
four
freedoms,
the
ability
for
legal
professionals,
other
professionals
to
trade
from
Scotland
across
the
the
the
EU
is
really
important,
and
that
ability
to
passport
and
deliver
services
is
likely
to
be
invited
almost
overnight.
So
the
the
EU
is
quite
different
in
the
sense
that
the
four
freedoms
have
been
in
place
since
1992,
but
the
services
side
of
it
is
really
quite
unusual
to
have
that
ability
to
trade
services
across
across
countries
on
the
basis
that
exists
at
the
moment.
B
I
And
finally,
it
can
be
done,
yeah
sure,
yeah,
yes,
sure,
I,
just
actually
cross-party
could
have
been
life
sciences
and
there's
a
presentation
there
from
a
GlaxoSmithKline
who
said
that
their
company,
which
employs
fourteen
thousand
people
in
the
UK,
has
spent
seventeen
million
pounds
on
breaks
at
preparations.
That's
five
days
of
prayer
and
ahead.
That's
funny,
let's
not
run
into
everything,
from
investment
to
salaries.
What
has
been
the
impact
to
an
investment
by
Scottish
and
ETA
UK
companies-
and
you
know
through
having
today
divert
resources
and
to
preparation
for
break
sir
yeah.
B
I'll
be
I'll,
be
briefing
there's
no
like
Simon
coming
as
well,
so
super
companies
have
already
transition
at
the
moment
and
and
trying
to
prepare
to
mitigate
we
publish
what
earlier
last
year
around
the
impact
to
stockpiling
silver,
see.
That's
a
an
evident
thing.
Well,
we're
seeing
businesses
increasing
the
inventories
that
they
can
hold
to
mitigate
and
immediate
disruptions,
so
essentially
that
skewed
working
capital
was
holding
more
stock
and-
and
it
says
it's
just
a
transitory
effect.
B
So
that's
that's
that's
one
particular
impact
would
also
seen
that,
where
investments
taking
place
is
skewed
towards
supply
chain
issues
or
an
additional
warehouse
in
our
wholesale
and
I,
don't
very,
except
preparedness,
so
that
and
they're,
saying
should
example
is-
is
borne
out
by
other
examples.
What
were
also
seen
as
the
businesses
that
hold
in
cash
that
the
postponing
investment
and
they're
not
quite
Banton
down
the
waiting
to
see
how
this,
how
this
responds
and
even
on
the
purchasing
managers
index
I
think
for
February.
B
E
Yes,
I
think
what
we're
seeing
is
two
things
happening
with
the
investment
figures
for
Scotland
and
for
UK.
Firstly,
overall
grew
from
business.
Investment
in
the
UK
is
really
low,
just
now
lowest
in
the
g7,
and
it's
really
slumped
the
last
four
quarters,
or
so,
but
I
suspect
primerica's
companies
are
holding
fire
waiting
for
the
uncertainty
to
resolve
so
part.
We
were
seeing
far
lower
investment
figures.
E
The
second
thing
we're
seeing
is
a
offer
investment
which
is
occurring
as
Gary
mentioned,
a
lot
of
artists
around
BRICS
mitigation
of
present,
rather
van
growth,
enhancing
investment,
which
would
drive
future
growth
and
entering
future
markets.
So
it's
really
investment.
We
are
seamlessness
of
mitigate
the
risks,
as
companies
see
it
rather
than
to
try
and
boost
the
future
outputs
in
the
future.
E
J
You
convener
and
good
morning,
gentlemen,
but
just
referring
back
to
some
of
the
evidence
we
received
from
Professor
Mackay
and
appreciate
them
it.
You
know
you
may
have
some
differences
of
opinion.
He
did
also
in
his
submission
praised
many
aspects
of
the
work
that
he
done
as
well,
and
he
likes
to
be
noted
and
appreciated
as
well.
But
point
17
in
his
submission
paper
to
his
struck
me
is
he's
got
an
interesting
comment.
He
said
there
is
little
attempt
to
explain
the
recent
performance
of
the
Scottish
economy.
J
B
So
twenty
sixteen
and
seventeen
which
had
covered
in
previous
analysis
and
the
report,
we
know
that
the
the
impacts
had
the
severe
impacts
in
the
sector
in
Scotland
through
that
period
and
actually
part
of
the
positive
narrative
around
Scotland's
accordingly,
coming
back
was
the
fact
that
that
sector
had
been
through
quite
a
transition
for
two
years.
I
mean
that
sector's
probably
quite
a
good
example
of
for
some
of
the
arguments
of
a
international
trees
in
autumn
sector.
There's
one
trace
for
that
sector.
B
It's
a
200
dollar
price
and
when
the
the
price
falls
from
over
$100
to
250
dollars,
then
the
sector
has
to
respond.
That
was
a
two-year
response
we
seen
and
we've
seen,
and
that
was
analysis
also
showed
the
impact
of
that
sector
in
terms
of
its
its
impact
in
GDP
production
services.
So
so
so
it's
so
error
analysis
is
clear
and
I.
B
Think
if
you
look
back
through
the
different
reports,
the
one
from
a
couple
of
weeks
ago
was
focusing
on
the
big
issue
in
the
bedrest
for
the
economy
at
the
moment
and
I
was
highlighting
the
potential
dislocation
from
no
deal
breaks
across
those
sectors.
So
the
alongside
the
state
of
the
economy
reports
we
published
monthly
economic
statistics,
we
are
analysis,
is
open
and
transparent
and
so
I'm
carefully
comfortable
with
what
we
do
and
what
have
we.
J
B
So
that's
the
the
report
that
published
two
weeks.
It's
all
one
of
those
sessions
about
yeah;
okay,
that's
fine!
So
so
it's
simply
because
it's
Scotland's
report
were
doing
and
this
impact
to
Scotland
and
they
report
the
week
before
we
have
all
of
our
analysis
starts
with
the
global
economy,
UK,
economy,
Scotland
and
we
provide
the
same
comparators
for
each
and
so
our
focus,
obviously
as
in
Scotland.
It's.
The
analysis
of
this
report
was
trying
to
provide
a
backdrop
for
Scotland
relative
to
home
and
all
deal
with
impact,
but.
J
Surely
the
effect
of
what
would
happen
in
or
deal
scenario,
what
you're
doing
is
building
up
the
case
is
to
paint
a
picture
of
where
the
economy
is
at
the
moment,
and
presumably
that
would
require
looking
at
Scotland's
performance
as
it
stands
at
the
moment
where
those
rigs
are
no
Greg's
a
dealer,
an
ordeal,
hard
brags
are
no
nor
hard
razor.
So,
for
example,
you've
completely
missed
out
any
of
the
analysis
done
by
the
Scottish
fiscal
commission.
B
Again,
I
think
what
I
think
what
probably
splitting
here
I
was
here
over
different
papers,
but
the
so
this
was
essentially
about
no
deal
implications
for
Scotland
and
the
focus
over
was
our
in
this
scenario
since
machine
mechanisms
and
how
that
would
impact
they're
calling
me
your
points
around
the
underlying
performance
economy.
They
were
all
covered
in
the
report
the
week
before,
which
included
forecast
from
the
fiscal
commission
from
other
independent
organisations
with
friends
around
or
included
OB.
Our
forecasts
included
the
most
recent
productivity
day,
a
labor
market
data.
All
of
that
was
there.
B
J
B
J
B
Its
organizing,
so
we
we
don't,
we
haven't
published
GDP
for
q4
yet,
but
if
you
look
at
the
UK
publication,
December
for
the
UK
economy,
GDP
growth
is
slow
to
think
2.1,
so
that-
and
that
was
that
was
based
on
their
analysis
of
uncertainty
to
do
reflects
what
we
are
mentioned
in
this
report.
My
sense
is
what
we've
seen
is
a
material
drop
in
confidence
in
janya
in
favori.
That's
coming
through
and.
B
I
think
confidence
is
a
massive
into
gear,
and
actually
it's
really
important.
It's
really
important
to
think
about
what
would
hearing
from
the
business
piece
as
well,
and
what
would
he
in
the
analysis
that
we
did
last
year,
looking
at
the
impact
of
insanity,
investment,
a
ton
of
insanity,
investment
on
investment?
B
Essentially,
we
know
this
from
an
engagement
was
the
banks
and
sectors.
Businesses
aren't
investing
them
same
basis
at
the
moment
that
uncertainties
they
are
where
companies
are
invest
and
they're
investing
to
issues
that
are
in
mitigation.
The
efficiency
of
the
operation
not
know
in
the
context
of
of
the
economy
and
there's
a
wider
backdrop
to
the
accordingly
as
well
in
terms
of
the
global
and
Yuki
economy,
so
the
so
I'm
clear
in
the
sense
that
we
are
seen,
impacts
on
their
calling
me
all
of
that,
but
that
the
interesting
point
you
make
in
the
census.
B
J
A
connect
up
about
migration,
briefly
I'm,
just
referring
to
your
section
pages,
25
26,
labor,
market
and
migration.
Can
you
just
explain
to
me
some
of
the
assumptions
you've
made
around
your
modeling
for
that
you
talked
about
a
net
migration
fall
between
15
16
16
17.
Can
you
give
me
the
reasons
why
there
is
a
fault
so.
B
A
lot
of
you
can
in
this,
but
so
so
the
so
so
migration
and
a
sense.
The
reasons
for
the
fall
are
quite
clear
and
the
sense
that
we
have
data
and
then
flows
of
people
into
Scotland,
and
when
we
did
this
modeling
and
the
earlier
analysis,
we
took
both
the
the
central
predicted
projections
from
register
Scotland
around
the
migrants
and
high
and
low
migrants
and
adios.
So
so,
if
the
question
is,
why
would
you
expect
no.
J
J
E
I
think
I'll
commence.
So
what
we're
seeing
was
that
my
net
migration
to
Scotland
fourteen
fifteen,
sixteen
sixteen
seventeen
that
was
partly
because
sterling
depreciated,
18
percent
over
up
here,
eat
oysters
or
previous
page
discusses,
and
that
means
obviously
the
pure
repatriate
for
wages,
the
worth
less.
When
you
put
me
back
into
euros,
so
I
was
partly
portals
about.
Secondly,
what
we
saw
our
period
was
perilous
slowdown
of
Scotland's
economy,
which
is
overrated,
but
at
the
same
time,
for
wider
euro
economy
was
recovering,
so
scores
relative
attractiveness
as
it
were
to
migrants.
E
J
B
We
so
I
say
Italy
well.
What
we
are
talking
about
is
a
hernia
migrant
and
figure.
So
the
the
the
number
of
migrants
connect
the
Scottish
economy
from
both
sources,
it's
13,000
a
few
of
a
reduction
and
that
what
we're
simulating
is
the
impact
of
a
reduction
in
migration,
the
source
of
the
migration
of
where
the
people
come
from.
This
is
less
of
an
issue.
It's
the
the
impacts
the
same,
and
it
would
be
the
same.
A
few
were
increasing
migration,
so
we
don't.
J
A
C
B
D
It
can
be
just
really
a
point
of
information
which
I
thought
might
be
helpful
to
the
committee
and
which
mr.
green
may
not
have
been
aware
of
in
terms
of
his
discussion
in
the
Scottish
versus
UK
economy
in
the
relative
strengths.
In
fact,
this
morning,
HMRC
published
figures
which
showed
that
Scotland's
goods
exports
increased
by
six
percent
in
2018
double
the
rate
for
the
UK
as
a
whole.
So
that
might
just
be
helpful
information
in
terms
of
the
context
of
the
comparison
between
the
two
economies.
I
think,
okay,.
A
I
think
this,
this
I
think
miss
Ewing
has
made
her
point
that
she
wished
to
make
this
this
morning.
Well
now
I'd
like
to
thank
the
witnesses
for
coming
to
the
session
and
to
dr.
Gillespie
and
Simon
Phil.
Oh,
it's
been
a
privilege
to
could
have
some
oratory
please.
In
the
committee
it's
been
our
privilege
to
convene
the
committee
that
this
morning
a
joy
McAlpine,
here's
a
convener.
It
gives
her
apologies
and
regrets
that
she
was
unable
to
be
here
this
morning
to
take
part
in
the
evidence
session
and
I'll
now
move
into
private
session.