►
Description
The third meeting of the Arlington VA Community Facilities Study Committee featured Dr. Lisa Sturtevant of the National Housing Conference speaking on national and regional trends. Recorded on March 11 2015. For more information, go to http://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/.
A
Thanks.
Thank
you
very
much
thanks
for
the
invitation
to
be
here
thanks
for
the
clicker,
so
my
goal
tonight,
as
John
mentioned,
is
to
kick
off
the
presence
of
some
presentations
that
are
going
to
share
with
you
some
information
on
demographic
and
economic
trends.
My
goal
is
to
talk
about
some
national
and
regional
trends
that
will
affect
population
forecasts
for
the
county
and
have
implications
for
County
decisions
that
are
being
debated
in
this
group.
A
My
focus
is
on
the
nation
and
on
the
region
you're
going
to
hear
from
folks
who
know
about
more
about
the
county
and
are
going
to
prepare
some
County
prepare
some
County
forecast
share
with
you,
some
County
forecast
but
I'm,
hoping
that
some
of
these
ideas
at
the
national
and
regional
level
will
help
set
the
context.
I
was
told,
I
have
20
minutes,
so
I'm
going
to
do
my
very
very
best
and
stick
to
that,
while
also
sharing
a
fair
amount
of
information.
So
we
talk
about
demographics.
A
A
Young
people
are
starting
to
form
households
again,
which
means
that
there
is
a
greater
demand
nationally
for
housing,
and
the
increase
in
household
formation
rates
is
likely
to
continue
as
we
continue
to
as
our
economy
continues
to
improve,
and
as
these
household
formation
rates
stabilize,
we
can
look
ahead
to
some
of
the
demographic
characteristics
that
will
really
shape
population
growth.
None
of
this
is
going
to
be
particularly
surprising
to
anyone.
I
would
imagine,
but
but
some
numbers
here
to
show
how
the
population
is
becoming
more
racially
and
ethnically
diverse.
A
We
have
a
higher
fertility
rates
among
minorities,
and
so
there's
some
implications,
then,
for
the
growth
of
these
populations
over
the
next
three
decades,
you
can
see
faster
growth
among
the
minority
groups,
racial
minority
groups
and
actually
not
just
slower
growth,
but
an
absolute
decline
in
the
number
of
white
people
in
the
United
States
or
overall
we
know
our
population
is
aging.
We
know
the
baby
boom
population
is
entering
their
mid
60s.
A
The
generations
here
are
maybe
a
little
bit
different
than
you
might
have
seen.
We
often
talk
about
the
baby
boomers
as
one
group
and
the
Millennials
as
another
group
and
the
Gen
Xers
may
be
in
the
middle,
but
I
broken
it
out
here
by
ten
year
increments.
So
you
can
see
some
of
the
relative
sizes
of
these
groups,
and
this
is
presently
currently
and
you
can
see
that
the
Millennials
comprise
slightly
larger
groups
than
the
Gen
Xers,
and
the
baby
boomers
are
also
a
little
bit
bigger
than
the
Gen
Xers.
A
So
this
is
a
trend,
that's
happening
across
the
world,
but
what
we're
seeing
now
is
we're
going
to
start
to
see
the
older
populations
growing
faster
than
the
younger
populations
and
there's
implications
of
this
differential
growth
by
age
for
housing.
Demand
for
labor
market
characteristics,
there's
going
to
be
fewer
workers
to
support
children
and
seniors
who
aren't
in
the
labor
force.
There's
going
to
be
interesting
debates
about
policy
priorities
when
you
have
a
larger
group
of
seniors
in
the
community,
so
I
think
understanding
a
little
bit
about
those
age.
A
Cohorts
are
important
so
nationally
these
population
forecasts
are
driven
really
by
differential
fertility
rates
by
life
expectancies.
Just
a
note
in
case
you're
wondering
changes
to
immigration
policy,
don't
make
a
don't,
have
a
big
impact
on
these
on
these
forecasts,
we're
going
to
be
an
older
population,
we're
going
to
be
a
more
racially
diverse
population
demographer,
william
fri
at
bookings
has
Brookings
has
called
this.
The
diversity
explosion
that
this
is
something
that's
coming
and
we
can
see
it.
We
can
see
it
nationally.
A
So
how
are
our
demographics
here
different
in
the
DC
area,
because
we
are
different?
Metro
areas
tend
to
be
different
than
the
nation
as
a
whole
and
were
different
still
in
addition
to
these
dramatic
demographic
changes
were
in
the
midst
of
a
pretty
dramatic
economic
restructuring
in
the
region
which
you
are
familiar
with,
but
I
want
to
take
just
a
few
minutes
to
talk
about
our
region's
economy
and
how
it's
changing
and
what
that
means
for
population
growth
and
for
demographic
change
in
the
region.
Very
briefly,
we
lost
jobs
during
the
recession.
A
You
can
see
those
on
the
left
hand,
side
by
sector.
We
gain
jobs
back
in
the
recovery
and
we've
done
a
pretty
good
job
at
gaining
back
jobs
in
most
sectors,
with
a
couple
of
exceptions,
but
as
a
result
of
sequestration,
there's
been
declines
in
federal
spending
in
the
region,
federal
spending
both
on
payroll,
which
supports
federal
government
jobs
as
well
as
procurement,
which
supports
private
sector
jobs.
In
the
2000-2010
there
was
lots
of
growth
in
federal
government
jobs.
People
people
came
here
in
droves.
A
This
is
what
happens
at
the
end
of
a
recession,
but
we've
seen
sustained
losses
in
federal
government
employment
since
2012.
These
are
not
necessarily
people
being
laid
off,
but
they
are
retired
retirees
where
jobs
aren't
being
filled.
These
are
positions
being
left
unfilled,
based
on
what
we
see
in
patterns
of
federal
spending.
There's
no
reason
to
think
that
this
is
going
to
turn
around
that
this
is
sort
of,
at
least
in
the
near
term,
the
pattern
and
federal
government
employment.
A
You
can
see:
we've
had
faster
growth
in
education
and
health
services
and
leisure
and
hospitality
where
the
wages
are
substantially
lower
than
those
higher
paying
professional
and
business
services
jobs.
The
average
wage
in
the
Washington
Metropolitan
Area
has
declined
for
three
consecutive
years
in
a
row.
That's
never
happened
before
in
the
history
of
when
how
the
data
have
been
collected.
A
So
there's
a
change
in
the
type
of
workers
we
have,
and
we
see
that
in
this
household
income
data
we
hear
the
news
reports
every
year
right,
seven
of
the
ten
highest
income
counties
in
the
country
are
here
in
DC.
That's
the
headline.
We
don't
hear
this
story,
though
almost
every
county
in
the
Washington
Metropolitan
Area
has
seen
their
average
household
income
decline
between
2009
and
2013,
and
you
can
see.
Arlington
is
highlighted
there.
A
So
you
know
that
means
that
we're
in
a
different
economy,
we
have
different
types
of
households.
We
have
folks
with
different
kinds
of
wages.
We
have
folks
who
may
be
making
decisions
based
on
different
factors,
different
economic
factors-
then
maybe
folks
for
five
or
ten
years
ago,
right
and
maybe
they're
more
sensitive
to
affordability.
Maybe
they're
more
sensitive
to
small
looking
for
smaller
homes,
there's
all
sorts
of
implications
to
this
changing
economic
pattern.
A
So
as
we
use
this
economic
restructuring
as
a
context,
I
wanted
us
to
think
about
how
demographics
in
the
region
may
impact
housing,
demand
and
I.
Think
about
that
because
it's?
How
will
that
impact
their
decisions,
perhaps
to
stay
or
move
to
Arlington?
That's
kind
of
the
next
question
I'm
not
going
to
answer
that
question,
but
but
thinking
about
some
of
these
things
might
help
us
answer
that
and
I've
organized
this
around
three
generations
for
lack
of
a
better
way
to
do
it
right.
So
why
not?
A
Because
we
kind
of
know
who
these
folks
are
in
our
mind.
One
thing
I
want
to
point
out
just
so
that
you
all
know
is
that
for
all
groups,
except
for
seniors
in
the
region,
home
ownership
rates
are
down
from
where
they
were
back
in
two
thousand.
This
really
suggests
that
there's
a
pent-up
demand
for
home
ownership,
and
so
this
is
something
I
want
to
come
back
to
I.
A
If
we're
talking
about
Millennials
we're
talking
about
folks
at
least
I'm
talking
about
folks
in
their
early
20s
to
mid
30s,
there's
a
bad
of
a
million
of
them
here
in
the
Washington
area,
many
young
workers
came
to
the
region
in
2009
and
2010
when
we
were
growing
jobs.
Some
of
these
folks
then
have
been
here
a
while
right.
A
A
They
might
have
met
the
love
of
their
life
right,
they
they've
aged,
so
this
millennial
population
that
we
talk
about
sometimes
as
being
young
and
Footloose
and
renters
and
in
small
units
in
our
region
have
been
here
for
a
little
while
and
so
with
time
and
with
wage
increases
they're
ready.
Many
of
them
are
ready
for
home
ownership
and
ready
for
their
own
place,
and
the
question
is
where
will
it
be
DC
in
Arlington,
where
they
originally
settled,
where
they
might
find
higher
housing
costs
where
they
might
find
more
limiting
housing
stock?
A
But
not
in
the
rest
of
the
region
right,
so
this
was
a
phenomenon
that
we
saw
here
and
we
saw
in
DC,
and
maybe
we
thought
it
was
happening
everywhere,
but
frankly
it
wasn't.
It
was
focused
really
in
the
inner
jurisdictions,
but
here's
what's
happening
so
follow
me
on
this
one,
because
this
is
a
little
bit
of
a
mess
of
a
slide.
A
Arlington
is
the
second
bar
the
lightest,
the
light
red
bar
the
medium
red
bar
between
2010
and
2011,
a
25
to
34
year
olds,
made
up
forty
five
percent
of
all
the
population
growth
so
about
half
the
population
growth
in
that
one
year
was
Millennials.
Look
what
happened
in
twenty
eleven:
thirty-two
percent
of
the
population
growth
as
Millennials
in
2012,
five
percent,
so
of
all
the
people
that
field
population
growth
in
Arlington
between
2012
and
2013,
only
five
percent
of
them
were
Millennials.
A
Okay,
it's
a
it's
different
and
that's
true
in
the
all
of
the
inner
core
jurisdictions,
but
it's
a
little
bit
different
when
you
look
say
to
Loudoun
County
the
light
blue
bar
small
share
back
in
2010-2011
and
a
growing
share
as
we're
moving
forward.
This
is
suggestive
to
me
again
suggestive
that
there
is
a
movement
right.
A
There
is
folks
who
are
looking
for
home
ownership
and
may
be
looking
to
the
suburbs
may
be
looking
where
the
generation
before
them
looked
right
and
so
I
think
this
is
something
you
want
to
keep
an
eye
on
when
we
think
about
this
group.
This
1,000,000
people
living
in
this
region,
many
of
whom
came
to
Arlington
in
DC,
first
where's,
the
next
stop
right.
A
Okay,
let's
talk
about
Generation
X
Generation,
its
they
get
no
respect
and
I'm
Generation
X,
so
I
feel
inclined
to
talk
about
them
a
little
bit.
Some
of
these
folks
there's
about
six
hundred
there's
about
750,000
folks
who
are
in
their
mid
30s
to
mid
40s.
That's
that's,
who
we'll
call
Generation
X
many
of
them
are
homeowners.
Some
are
ready
to
move
up
and
the
question
is:
will
they
and
or
will
they
stay
where
they
are
inventory
prices?
Those
are
going
to
be.
A
The
things
that
they're
going
to
look
at
interest
rates
are
won't
be
a
factor
whether
they
have
equity
in
their
home
will
be
new
construction
still
hasn't
picked
up
in
the
region,
so
they
might
not
have
as
much
choice
so
that
might
force
them
to
stay.
Put.
I
just
wanted
to
mention
that
for
some
folks
they
talk
about
interest
rate
lock.
That
is,
if
you've
got
a
really
low
rate.
A
You
might
not
move,
but
that
doesn't
seem
to
be
an
issue
if
rates
are
still
pretty
darn,
pretty
darn
low,
so
just
get
that
off
the
table
as
an
issue.
What
is
it
issue?
Is
that
Generation
X
among
all
the
generations
now
this
is
national
data
but
lost
more
wealth
during
the
downturn
than
any
other
generation,
primarily
because
of
foreclosures.
So
this
was
the
group
that
was
hardest
hit
by
foreclosures
and
may
not
have
built
up
the
equity
back
in
their
home
to
be
ready
to
move.
A
So
will
these
folks
stay
in
place
and
renovate
right?
Are
these
the
folks
with
one
child
in
elementary
school
who
may
decide
to
stay
in
Arlington,
even
though
they
want
a
bigger
place?
They
may
hold
out,
or
they
may
find
a
way
to
to
increase
the
size
of
their
home
here
in
the
county
or
in
other
counties
like
Arlington.
A
So,
lastly,
let's
talk
about
the
baby
boomers.
There's
about
850,000
people
here
in
the
region
will
call
baby
boomers
the
vast
majority
of
them.
Eighty
percent
live
in
the
suburbs.
We'll
talk
about
what
the
suburbs
are
in
a
minute.
Many
will
stay
in
the
region.
Research
suggests
that
between
fifty
and
sixty
percent
of
retirees
stay
in
the
metropolitan
area
in
which
they
were
working
when
they
retire
so
they're
not
going
to
Florida
or
Arizona,
and
if
I
do
move
they're
more
likely
to
move
where
their
grandkids
are
so.
A
So
this
is
sort
of
this
interesting
pattern
that
you
see
many
want
to
downsize.
Many
want
to
be
in
transit,
accessible
locations.
Many
will
not
be
able
to
afford
to
be
in
those
locations,
but
one
upside
is,
if
we
think
about
those
Millennials
who
are
in
those
apartments
now
and
they
move
out.
Will
this
be
a
transition
from
Millennials
to
baby
boomers,
finding
a
place
that
may
have
been
housed
by
a
22
or
23
year
old?
You
know
five
or
six
years
ago
and
is
now
open
to
baby
boomers.
A
The
one
caution
I
have
about
that
is:
there's
a
strong
homeownership
tendency
among
this
generation
so
to
move
to
a
rental
unit
in
retirement.
That
would
be
a
shift.
That
would
be
a
new
thing.
It
may
be
this
generations
thing,
but
but
it
would
be
a
shift
by
2030
about
sixteen
percent
of
our
population
will
be
aged,
65
or
older.
So
we're
a
little
bit
younger
than
the
nation
and
the
greatest
number
of
boomer
households
live
in
fairfax
in
Montgomery
County
about
300,000
live
in
the
it.
What
I'm
calling
the
inner
suburbs?
A
That's
the
second
blue
line,
Fairfax
Montgomery,
Prince
George's!
That's
what
I'm
calling
the
inner
suburbs!
The
inner
core
is
DC,
alexandria
and
arlington.
So
you
can
see
about
a
hundred
thousand
65
plus
folks
live
in
the
inner
core.
The
outer
suburbs
are
loud
in
Prince,
William
and
Frederick
Maryland,
and
then
the
outer
outer
suburbs
are
the
more
distant
part
of
our
region.
A
So
the
question
you
know
a
sort
of
was
interested
in.
Is
there
going
to
be
a
sufficient
housing
for
all
these
folks
as
they're
making
these
decisions
that
are
really
tied
to
the
life
cycle?
And
so
this
idea
of
needing
lower
priced
homes
because
of
what
we
know
about
wages
and
incomes?
The
fact
that
home
ownership
will
be
in
demand,
but
that
they'll
also
be
a
a
need
for
rental
housing
given
lower
incomes
and
then
I
have
accessible
housing
and
print
in
quotes
because
accessible
both
to
an
aging
population,
meaning
with
home
modifications.
A
A
It
shows
a
lot
of
stuff,
but
you
see
the
2002-2003
a
2000
for
the
blue
line
goes
below
the
dashed
line.
That's
when
we
were
over
building.
Basically,
we
were
building
more
housing
than
we
had.
People
coming
in
the
blue
line
is
2.5.
We
build
about
one
unit
for
every
2.5,
new
people
that
come
to
the
region
in
the
last
few
years
for
every
new
housing
unit
that
was
built.
A
Eight
people
moved
to
the
region,
so
that's
that
big
bump
there,
so
we
are
under
built
considerably,
so
we
need
more
housing
in
the
region
and
I've
estimated.
We
need
about
39,000
new
units
each
year
between
twenty
fifteen
and
twenty
nineteen,
and
a
lot
of
them
are
going
to
be
in
places
where
they
have
typically
been,
maybe
not
been
in
the
last
couple
years,
but
then,
historically,
the
blue
line
is
the
inner
suburbs.
Remember
that's
Fairfax,
Montgomery,
Prince
George's
and
about
fifty
percent
of
all
new
housing
in
the
region.
A
Back
in
the
early
90s
was
built,
their
inner
core
Arlington
Alexandria
DC
about
three
or
four
percent
of
all
housing
units
were
built
in
the
inner
core.
Look
what
happened
over
time?
Look
what
happened
to
that
red
line
right!
Look!
What
happened
to
the
blue
line
right!
It
seems
to
me
that
that
blue
line
is
going
to
go
back
up
right
and
that
that
red
line
is
going
to
go
back
down
as
a
share
of
total
housing
growth
right.
A
This
is
building
permit
data
for
the
region,
and
you
can
see
the
black
line
says
the
share
of
all
housing
units
built
that
were
multifamily
housing
back
in
the
early
2000s.
It
was
about
twenty
five
percent,
thirty
percent-
maybe,
but
recently
it's
been
close
to
half
most
of
the
building
activity
has
really
been
in
DC
and
arlington
and
alexandria,
and
so
what
we'll
see?
As
the
single-family
side
starts,
to
ramp
back
up
again,
we'll
see
that
black
line
road
go
down,
which
will
mean
there'll,
be
more
opportunities
for
single
family
housing.
A
At
the
same
time,
there
may
be
single
family
housing,
freeing
up
in
fairfax,
Montgomery,
Prince,
George's
County,
making
it
a
little
less
expensive
and
so
I
don't
think
week,
and
then
we
have
also
the
information
that
there
are
stated
preferences
for
single-family
homes.
Don't
get
me
wrong
when
you
ask
Millennials,
they
also
want
to
be
close
to
transit
and
close
to
amenities
in
their
single-family
home.
So
it's
it's.
This
balance
on
how
those
two
things
will
compete
with
each
other.
A
The
fact
that
there
is
a
pretty
well-established
ingrained
preference
among
age
groups
for
single
family
housing
thereof
and
I
and
I'm
saying
these
things
as
though
they're
too
for
everyone
and
I
don't
mean
it
that
way.
I'm
just
saying
that
when
you,
when
you
look
at
the
survey
data,
there
is
not
a
huge
shift
towards
the
demand,
the
desire
for
multi-family
home
ownership.
It's
you
just,
don't
see
it
in
the
data,
but
there
will
be
a
need
for
smaller
homes
for
lower
priced
homes,
because
we
know
what's
happening
to
wages.
That's
not
a
preference
right.
A
If
you
have
a
lower
income,
that's
not
your
preference,
but
you
have
to
make
decisions
based
on
on
that
I
think
the
suburbs
are
when
I
say
the
suburbs.
I
mean
some
of
the
more
distant
suburbs.
I
think
are
probably
going
to
see
more
population
growth
than
they've
had
in
recent
years
and
then
I
think
that
there's
still
going
to
be
a
ketchup
that
needs
to
happen
in
terms
of
the
supply
of
housing
so
over
the
next
year
or
two
people
may
stay
put
longer
than
they
might
want
to.
A
But
by
26
the
supply
side
should
catch
up
a
bit
and
we
might
see
more
movement
in
the
region
than
we've
seen
in
a
long
time.
So
that
was
very
fast
and
I
appreciate
you
stick
with
me,
I'm
glad
to
be
the
first
person.
Frankly,
if
I
had
to
be
the
fourth
person
to
show
that
many
charts,
I
would
so
good
luck
to
you
all.
So.
Thank
you
very
much.