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From YouTube: Community Facilities Study #3 (3 of 6): Robert Brosnan Forecast and Projection Overview
Description
The third meeting of the Arlington VA Community Facilities Study Committee featured Robert Brosnan, Arlington County Manager's Office, offering a forecast and projection overview. Recorded on March 11 2015. For more information, go to http://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/.
A
Thank
you,
Lisa
I'm.
Actually,
one
of
the
people
who
loves
this
stuff
so
was
wasn't
boring.
So
that's
a
lot
of
information.
I
learned
two
or
three
things.
One
watch
out
as
oldsters
are
coming
and
that
Millennials
one
at
all.
The
only
thing
that
I
think
Lisa
got
wrong
is
the
way
to
track
where
the
Millennials
are
going
is
track
where
building
permits
or
brew
pubs
are
and
then
you'll
find
where
they're
going
so
you've
heard
a
lot
of
information
thrown
out
there
and
by
the
way
my
name
is
Bob
Breslin.
A
A
A
You've,
seen
dem
regional
demographic
trends
and
certainly
lisa
has
given
you
some
opinions
about
what
she
thinks
is
going
to
happen
to
the
future
and
I
think
it
really
shows
you
how
I
won't
say
difficult,
but
how
complicated
it
is
to
do
forecasts
and
projections,
because
a
lot
of
it
has
to
do
with
these
kind
of
trends
that
she's
talking
about
you
will
see
in
the
stash
presentations
think
that
we
are
pretty
good
at
tracking
square
footage,
a--'s
and
numbers
of
units
of
stuff.
But
it's
these
higher
level.
A
One
of
the
things
we
struggle
with,
for
instance,
is
when
are
these
Millennials
when
or
if
these
Millennials,
who
are
living
in
a
lot
of
the
apartments
that
are
being
developed
in
our
high
density
corridors,
will
stay
there?
Will
they
form
families
and
will
they
start
generating
school
children?
We
don't
know
the
answer
to
that.
That's
crystal
ball
gazing.
What
we
can
do
is
track
those
trends
pretty
carefully
and
make
adjustments
as
we
go
along.
A
So
we'll
talk
tonight
a
little
bit
about
how
those
kind
of
things
work
and
and
how
we
work
together
with
schools.
Our
upcoming
presentations
will
show
some
historical
trends.
Recent
data
on
County
demographics
and
then
you'll
hear
how
those
trends
are
used
to
forecast
our
growth
and
project
school
enrollment
based
on
established
methodologies.
A
Now
these
methodologies,
people
can
probably
poke
holes
in
them
and
one
of
the
things
that
we're
going
to
do
is
we
are
looking
to
bring
a
consultant
on
board
to
kind
of
test,
both
the
county
side
and
the
school
sides.
Are
you
know,
are
we
doing
it
right?
Could
we
do
things
better
so
that
we
just
have
some
refinements
on
that
from
so
what
we're
going
to
do?
A
What
what
what
I
want
to
do
before
we
move
over
to
presentations
is,
as
we
were,
building
up
to
this
process
and
as
we've
gotten
into
this
process,
there
are
some
questions
swirling
around
out
there,
John
Millikan
talked
to
some
of
them
earlier.
I
want
to
talk
about
a
few
of
them
very
quickly
and
let
you
know
what
what
I
think
we're
going
to
answer
for
you
tonight
and
those
that
we
are
going
to
have
to
take
up
at
subsequent
sessions.
A
So
there
are
two
different
things:
much
harder
to
figure
out.
The
second
one
is
sorry.
The
second
one
is:
how
do
County's
forecasts
account
for
bonus
density
that
can
be
adjusted
for
community
benefits
and
we
will.
We
will
address
that
to
a
degree
tonight
and
we're
also
continuing
to
do
some
work
on
that
to
go
back
and
look
at
our
forecast
and
see
how
well
we
did
so.
Some
of
that's
going
to
have
to
come
forward
at
a
subsequent
meeting.
A
Not
so
it's
not
so
easy
to
answer
that
question
in
one
single
with
one
single
answer:
why
is
school
enrollment
increasing
so
much
I
mean
that's
one
of
the
cores
that
we're
here
to
talk
about
ApS
will
present
different
factors
that
have
changed
over
the
last
seven
to
ten
years
that
have
affected
school
enrollment
and
again,
you
heard
from
Lisa
some
of
the
things
that
may
affect
that
going
forward.
That's
kind
of
the
challenge:
how
do
we?
How
do
we
project
going
forward?
A
Another
question
that
people
they
ask
in
our
new
family,
multi-family
housing
and
committed
affordable
units
affecting
school
enrollment,
and
the
answer
to
that
we
won't
get
into
tonight
we're
continuing
the
work
through
I
think
intuitively.
We
think
not,
but
we
don't
want
a
bit
base
our
presentations
to
you
on
intuition.
A
One
of
the
things
that
this
does
raise-
and
John
mentioned
it
briefly
when
he
started
is
so.
How
does
this
intersect
with
the
affordable
housing
study?
If
affordable
house,
it
is
in
fact
generating
school
children?
You
know
shouldn't
we
be
dealing
with
that
and
I
just
wanted
to
reiterate
what
John
said,
which
is
that
this
is
not
a
part
of
the
affordable
housing
study.
Affordable
housing
study
has
been
underway
for
about
two
and
a
half
years
now,
there's
been
a
working
group
working
on
it.
A
There
is
a
work
session
with
the
board
that
is
scheduled
for
I,
think
the
third
week
in
march,
and
oh
thank
you
and
always
glad
to
have
backup
on
the
and,
if,
once
the
board,
it
feels
comfortable
that
the
working
groups
product
is
good
to
take
out
to
the
community.
Then,
as
John
said,
it
will
run
its
normal
course
with
community
forums
and
things
like
that.
A
What
it
should
result
in
is
a
new
element
of
the
comprehensive
plan
that
will
be
at
affordable
housing
element
and
it
will
have
updated
goals
and
targets,
and
it
will
also
have
implementation
tools
and
some
further
study
that
we
have
to
do
on
implementation
tools.
So
there
are
plenty
of
opportunities
to
get
involved
with
and
have
a
say
in
the
affordable
housing
study
going
forward.
A
This
process
will
not
be
addressing
that
getting
back
to
some
of
the
questions,
then
we've
got
a
few
more
our
families,
switching
from
private
to
public
schools
and
on
that
one
we're
going
to
have
a
PS
we'll
get
to
some
answers
on
that
one
tonight.
How
accurate
have
previous
population
forecasts
in
school?
A
So
hopefully
that
gives
you
a
little
bit
of
sense
of
some
of
the
things
we'll
be
touching
on
some
of
the
questions
that
maybe
you
yourselves
have
been
asking
and
I
think
with
that.
What
I'd
like
to
do
is
Elizabeth
you're
up
first,
so
Elizabeth
Hardy
will
be
making
the
first
piece
of
the
county
presentation
followed
by
andrew
de
Vetter.
Why
I
think
John
we're
going
to
take
a
little
break
at
that
point,
and
then
schools
will
come
back
and
make
their
presentation.
So
thanks.