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A
For
the
third
meeting
of
the
interim
joint
committee
on
appropriations
and
revenue,
wednesday
august,
the
4th
2021
1
o'clock
pm
eastern
standard,
we're
in
annex
room,
149
and
all
the
usual
warnings
that
everyone
is
accustomed
to
are
still
good
about
your
cell
phones,
if
you're
appearing
remotely
and
does
anyone
have
any
special
guests
to
recognize
seeing
no
one
is
there
an
anthony
allen
in
the
room,
anthony
allen?
You
stand
up
please
and
think
this
may
be
your
first
attendance
of
the
a
r
meeting
great
well
welcome
good
to
have
you
here.
B
B
B
Thank
you,
representative,
dosset
president
and
the
committee
ryan.
Thank
you,
representative
fischer
president,
in
the
room.
Thank
you,
representative
fleming,
president,
in
the
room.
Thank
you
representative.
Flood
present
75th
district.
Thank
you
representative,
president,
in
the
room.
Thank
you
representative
gentry,
president
in
my
annex
office.
Thank
you,
representative,
goforth
president
and
my
district.
Thank
you,
representative.
B
B
D
B
B
A
A
A
A
Have
a
motion:
is
there
a
second
second?
I
have
a
second
all
in
favor
aye.
All
opposed
minutes
are
approved
and
up
today
on
agenda
item
number
three
kentucky's
current
economy
and
inflation
compared
to
the
nation,
michael
w
clark,
director
center
for
business
and
economic
research.
If
you
will
approach
the
table,
if
you
will
introduce
yourself
for
the
record,
please.
D
A
D
D
Okay,
I
think
I
should
be
good
all
right.
Thank
you
very
much
for
those
of
you
who
are
not
familiar
with
our
center.
I
want
to
take
just
a
moment
and
kind
of
explain
who
we
are
and
what
we
do
again
we're
the
center
for
business
and
economic
research.
We're
referred
to
as
sieber
for
short,
and
we
basically
do
applied
economic
and
policy,
research
for
state
and
local
government
agencies,
business
groups
and
community
groups,
and
we
do
a
number
of
things
in
terms
of
our
activities.
D
First
is
the
kentucky
economic
annual
report.
Cber
is
directed
by
statute
to
produce
an
annual
report
describing
the
kentucky
economy,
and
we
produce
these.
Usually
around
february
of
each
year.
We
distribute
these
to
members
of
the
general
assembly,
so
you
should
have
received
one.
If
you
have
not
please
check
with
me,
and
I
will
make
sure
that
you
get
one
and
staff
has
some
copies
as
well.
D
The
second
thing
that
we
produce
is
actually
produced
in
conjunction
with
the
kentucky
chamber
of
commerce.
This
is
a
quarterly
report
that
we've
started
recently
just
kind
of
describing
recent
trends
in
kentucky's
economy
and
comparing
those
trends
to
our
surrounding
states
and
to
the
nation
as
a
whole
and
most
of
the
material
I
covered
today
actually
comes
from
this
quarterly
report.
So
as
you're
looking
for
updated
information,
you'll
be
able
to
find
that
updated
information
in
future
reports.
D
D
These
are
on
two
different
scales:
kentucky
is
blue
and
is
in
billions
of
dollars.
The
nation
is
in
red
is
in
trillions
of
dollars,
but
you
can
see,
of
course,
that
you
know
we
all
kind
of
understand
this.
Now
you
know,
we've
been
all
been
tracking
the
economy.
We
see
the
impact
that
the
pandemic
has
had
on
on
the
kentucky
economy
and
the
national
economy
from
the
first
quarter
of
2020
to
the
second
quarter
of
2020
gdp
declined
by
10
percent.
D
Now,
on
the
left,
hand,
side
you're
going
to
see
percent
changes,
and
these
percent
changes
for
for
gdp
are
typically
shown
in
annual
rates,
so
the
actual
decline
was
about
a
10
decline
from
that
second
quarter.
First
quarter
to
that
second
quarter
and
an
annual
rate
that
is,
if
that
were
to
last
for
a
full
year,
which
is
the
way
we
kind
of
show
these
these
numbers.
Typically,
that's
about
a
35
percent
decrease,
so
kentucky's
gdp
declined
at
an
annual
rate
of
35
percent.
That
doesn't
mean
we
lost
a
third
of
the
economy.
D
At
that
point
time,
we
really
lost
about
10
10
of
the
economy.
You
can
see
that
there
was
a
significant
contraction
in
the
value
of
the
goods
and
services
that
we
produced,
but
then
the
following
quarter
that
increased
substantially
it
didn't
make
up
for
all
the
differences
we
were
still
lagging
behind,
but
each
quarter
since
then.
We've
seen
that
the
the
output
that
we
produce
has
increased
substantially.
D
D
Another
important
indicator
is
unemployment
insurance
claims.
So
here
I'm
showing
initial
claims
for
unemployment
insurance,
and
you
can
see
that
you
know
again.
They
have
come
down
substantially
from
where
they
were.
You
know
when
we're
in
the
the
heat
of
the
pandemic,
but
they
do
remain
high
relative
to
where
we
were
prior
to
the
pandemic
and
they've
been
somewhat
volatile
from
month
to
month.
D
D
D
So
what
I'd
like
to
do?
Is
I
like
to
kind
of
focus
on
the
last
year
and
a
half?
This
is
the
same
data.
I
showed
you
in
the
previous
chart
we're
just
kind
of
focusing
on
it,
but
the
unemployment
rate
is
basically
calculated
by
contacting
households
throughout
the
nation.
This
is
a
federal
agency
that
contacts
them
and
asks
them
questions
about
all
the
individuals
living
in
that
household
and
their
employment
situation.
D
Based
on
these
questions,
individuals
are
assigned
to
one
of
three
categories
if
they
were
working
during
a
specific
time
period.
Last
month,
they're
working
for
pay
they're
classified
as
employed
if
they
were
not
working
for
pay,
but
they
were
actively
searching
for
a
job
during
the
past
four
weeks
and
as
they
were
applying
for
jobs
going
on
interviews
some
activity
where
they're
really
searching
for
work,
they're
classified
as
unemployed.
D
D
D
It
could
be
my
parents
who
are
elderly
and
retired
and
are
not
searching
for
a
job,
but
can
also
encompass
a
lot
of
situations
between
that
and
one
of
the
things
that
we've
seen
over
the
past
year
and
a
half
has
been
a
number
of
people
who
maybe
were
employed
just
prior
to
the
pandemic,
who
lost
jobs
but
for
whatever
reason,
they're
not
actively
searching
for
work.
They
may
want
jobs.
D
They
may
need
jobs,
but
they're
not
actively
engaged
in
search
activity
as
a
result,
they're
not
classified
as
being
unemployed
because
they
weren't
searching
for
work,
they're
classified
as
being
not
in
the
labor
force,
and
so
that's
an
important
distinction.
When
we
think
about
the
unemployment
rate,
the
unemployment
rate
is
just.
The
number
of
people
who
are
unemployed
is
without
a
job
and
looking
for
work.
D
Those
who
are
not
in
the
labor
force,
for
whatever
reason,
do
not
get
calculated
in
that
number,
and
so
the
unemployment
rate
misses
those
individuals
and
we
think
we've
had
a
pretty
large
increase
in
the
number
of
people
who
maybe
have
dropped
out
of
the
labor
force,
at
least
temporarily,
for
various
reasons.
So
the
unemployment
rate
kind
of
misses
that,
and
so
that's
part
of
why
our
unemployment
rate
looks
really
low
relative
to
the
nation.
D
D
D
So
here
we're
basically
saying
is
of
our
population:
that's
16
and
over.
There
are
a
few
categories
that
are
excluded,
but
generally
are
population
16
and
over
what
percent
of
them
are
employed,
and
you
can
see
in
january
2020
just
prior
to
the
pandemic,
about
57
percent
of
our
population
actually
had
a
job,
that's
well
below
the
nation,
which
was
at
61
percent,
but
again
that's
prior
to
the
pandemic.
D
D
But,
as
you
look
at
kind
of
this
pattern
across
over
time
and
across
the
nation
and
kentucky,
you
see
a
very
similar
pattern
where
we
stood
as
of
june
2021
is
we
were
still
down
in
terms
of
the
percentage
of
our
population
that
was
employed
compared
to
where
we
were
prior
to
the
pandemic?
So
even
though
our
unemployment
rate
looks
really
low,
we
have
fewer
people
working,
so
that
amounts
to
about.
Oh,
I'm
trying
to
remember
the
number.
D
Another
one
thing
to
look
at
here
is
the
gap
between
where
kentucky
stands
on
these
numbers
and
where
the
u.s
stands
prior
to
pandemic.
Again,
it
was
about
4.2
percentage
points
where
we
were,
as
of
june,
was
again
about
4.2
percentage
points.
Now
that
gap
has
changed
over
time,
but
it's
kind
of
gotten
back
to
where
we
were
prior
to
the
pandemic.
So
what
we're
seeing
in
kentucky
in
terms
of
number
of
people
working
the
trend
overall
has
been
fairly
similar
to
what
we're
seeing
across
the
nation.
D
So
this
tells
us
a
bit
of
a
different
story.
Again,
our
labor
force
participation
rate
tends
to
lag
the
nation,
but
again
there
was
about
a
a
four
percentage
point
difference
between
the
us
and
kentucky
over
time.
We
saw
those
numbers
change,
they've
come
up
a
little
bit,
but
the
u.s
has
actually
come
up
faster
than
kentucky
has
that
gap
between
where
kentucky
is
and
where
the
u.s
is,
has
actually
widened
to
about
5.3
percentage
points.
D
So
in
terms
of
employment,
the
number
of
people
working
we're
really
doing
well,
keeping
up
with
the
nation
we're
about.
In
the
same
position
as
as
where
the
nation
was
from
where
we
started
before
the
pandemic
to
after
in
terms
of
labor
force
participation
rate,
we
seem
to
be
lagging
a
bit
at
this
point.
D
Now.
Why
are
the
labor
force
participation
rates
in
both
kentucky
and
the
nation
lagging
well?
There
are
a
lot
of
reasons
that
are
being
discussed
for
this.
Certainly,
there,
you
know
are
still
health
concerns
for
many
workers.
They
may
be
concerned
about
going
back
to
work
and
that
that
may
expose
them
to
covid,
and
that
may
be
a
health
threat
for
their
families.
D
Another
issue
that
you
don't
hear
discussed
quite
a
bit
are
quite
as
much
is
a
skills
and
geographic
mismatch
between
what
employers
are
looking
for
and
what
potential
workers
might
have
to
offer.
So
you
know
we
have
a
lot
of
businesses
that
are
looking
for
for
workers,
but
they're.
Looking
for
a
specific
skill
set,
a
lot
of
the
people
who
lost
jobs.
D
The
other
issue
we
hear
discussed
quite
a
bit
is,
of
course
the
enhanced
unemployment
benefits,
and
the
concern
here
is
that,
with
the
higher
level
of
unemployment
benefits
that
individuals
can
receive,
that
that
may
provide
a
disincentive
to
get
out
and
find
work.
Now
all
these
are
issues
that
you
know
seem
to
be
at
play
here.
It,
however,
is
not
really
clear
how
much
each
of
these
individual
factors
is
contributing
to
the
overall
lower
labor
force
participation
rate
that
we're
seeing
in
kentucky
and
the
u.s.
D
D
This
allows
us
to
see
how
we're
doing
over
time
and
how
we're
doing
relative
to
the
nation,
and
so
you
can
see
in
april
the
employment
losses
were
again
significant.
We
lost
our
employment
was
down
from
january
2020
by
about
15
percent
for
the
u.s.
It
was
about
14.5,
as
we
were
coming
out
of
this
decline.
D
D
Now,
over
the
last
six
months,
we've
seen
that
the
nation
is
has
really
caught
up
to
us
and
if
you
look
at
where
we
stand
as
of
june
2021,
our
employment
was
still
down
by
about
4.6
percent
relative
to
where
it
was
at
the
beginning
of
last
year,
just
prior
to
the
pandemic,
very
similar
to
what
we're
seeing
in
terms
of
the
nation
in
terms
of
the
count
of
jobs.
That's
about
90
000,
fewer
jobs
than
what
we
had
just
prior
to
the
pandemic.
D
D
The
next
slide
provides
fairly
similar
information.
This
is
just
kentucky,
but
this
puts
it
not
in
percent
terms,
but
in
terms
of
jobs.
How
many
jobs
have
we
lost
from
the
beginning
of
2020
over
time,
and
so
you
can
see
kind
of
where
we
stand
so
I'll.
Let
you
look
at
that
in
your
own.
I
just
kind
of
want
to
mention
that
that's
there.
D
Okay,
we
are
also
seeing
a
substantial
increase
in
the
number
of
job
openings
now
here,
I'm
showing
u.s
job
openings,
but
you
can
kind
of
see
from
looking
at
your
packet,
not
the
screen
that
job
openings
have
have
really
increased
and
we're
seeing
a
lot
of
additional
job
openings
across
most
of
our
major
industrial
sectors,
and
so
that's
really
encouraging.
We
have
a
lot
of
employers
out
there
who
are
looking
to
fill
positions.
D
D
Employers
are
trying
to
fill
positions,
but
there's
not
as
many
workers
to
fill
those
positions,
and
so
when
that
happens,
what
we
tend
to
see
is
wages
go
up
or
essentially
what
we're
talking
about
is
price
for
for
for
labor,
and
so
we
are
actually
seeing
evidence
of
this
again.
This
is
u.s
data,
but
it
shows
how
wages
and
salaries
are
changing
each
quarter
relative
to
where
we
were
12
months
before.
D
D
We
started
seeing
wage
growth
over
the
last
few
years
just
prior
to
the
pandemic,
so
wages
were
really
starting
to
grow
on
an
inflation-adjusted
basis.
You
know
we
were
seeing
that
wages
were
growing
faster
than
inflation
and
normally
when
we
enter
a
recession.
What
tends
to
happen
is
we
got
a
lot
of
people
who
are
looking
for
work
and
we
have
few
jobs,
and
so,
when
that
happens,
you
know
wages.
D
Well,
there
seem
to
be
several
things
driving
this.
First
of
all,
if
you
look
across
the
individual
categories,
you
see,
certain
categories
are
seeing
significant
price
increases
and
I've
just
shown
you
a
few
examples
of
these,
and
you
know
if
you
read
the
wall
street
journal
or
the
business
page
you've
heard
about
these
before
the
increase
in
new
cars.
D
D
So
what
we're
seeing
is
a
lot
of
things
that,
due
to
these
supply
chain
bottlenecks
that
you
know
are
really
causing
our
prices
to
go
up
now.
These
seem
to
be
things
that
are
probably
temporary.
In
nature,
you
know
part
of
the
reason
we're
having
these
problems
with
chips
is
because
consumer
spending
patterns
change
dramatically.
D
You
know,
businesses,
we
they
have
these
very
efficient
supply
chains.
You
know
they
try
to
understand.
You
know
what
consumers
are
going
to
want
when
they're
going
to
want
it
not
keep
a
whole
lot
of
inventory
in
place,
so
they're
just
producing
enough.
They
had
a
pretty
good
track
record
of
kind
of
understanding.
What
bit
what
consumers
wanted?
You
know
not
perfect,
certainly,
but
a
very
good
track
record
with
the
pandemic
that
changed
consumer
demand
dramatically,
and
so
chips
were
being
allocated
different
places.
Who
would
have
thought
that
demand
for
cars
would
stay
so
high?
D
Another
factor
that's
playing
into
this.
You
remember.
I
talked
about
wages
a
few
slides
ago,
as
as
businesses
are
trying
to
to
get
workers
they're
finding
they're
having
to
compete
for
those
workers
and
as
they
wage
those
increase,
those
wages,
they're
passing
those
costs
on
to
their
customers
in
terms
of
higher
prices.
D
Now
I
don't
actually
produce
a
forecast
of
of
inflation.
I
don't
have
a
new
forecast
for
you
to
look
at,
but
what
I
have
done
is
I
wanted
to
show
you
kind
of
what
a
lot
of
professional
economists
who
are
responsible
for
developing
forecasts
have
been
showing
now.
The
next
two
slides
are
going
to
show
distributions
of
their
their
projections
for
inflation
over
the
next
few
years.
D
D
As
of
the
most
recent
readings
that
we
have,
I'm
showing
you
here
on
these
next
two
slides,
so
this
first
one
are
economists
that
the
wall
street
journal
surveys
and
they're
just
asking
them.
What
do
you
think
inflation
is
going
to
be
over
the
next
next
couple
of
years,
and
so
here,
what
we're
showing
you
is
a
particular
type
of
of
a
chart.
That's
that
basically
showing
the
distribution
of
their
responses,
and
what
you
can
see
here
is
with
these
different
boxes.
D
D
The
width
of
that
box,
50
percent
are
in
that
box.
So
50
of
forecasters
think
that
forecast
inflation
is
going
to
be
within
that
particular
range.
The
dots
tend
to
be
outliers
and
there's
always
some,
but
what
you
can
see
there
is,
as
as
we
look
at
these
economists,
what
they
seem
to
be
telling
us
is
that
we
can
expect
inflation
to
be
high
for
the
rest
of
this
year.
D
Inflation
has
generally
run
a
little
bit
below
two
percent
where
we've
been
seeing.
It
run
above
that
over
the
last
three
months,
they're
expecting
inflation
to
continue
to
be
high
through
the
rest
of
this
year
and
as
we
move
into
2022,
they
see
it
being
again
higher
than
what
it
has
been
historically
but
coming
down.
D
D
This
is
a
histogram
of
their
responses,
there's
18
participants
and
you
can
see
where
each
one
of
them
kind
of
fell
in
terms
of
where
they
thought
inflation
was
going
to
be
again.
Their
expectation
for
june
was
that
it
was
going
to
be
higher
than
what
it
had
been
in
the
past.
Now
they
missed
this
a
bit.
You
know
inflation
actually
came
in
higher
than
what
they
were
expecting,
but
as
we
move
into
what
they
think
it's
going
to
be
from
through
march
2022,
you
see
that
they're
saying
okay.
D
Of
course,
there
is
a
substantial
amount
of
uncertainty
with
economic
forecasting
these
days
so
kind
of
inclusion,
things
to
watch
as
remember
the
consensus
forecasting
group,
of
course,
will
be
meeting.
They
will
be
developing
a
forecast
of
the
state's
general
fund
and
road
funds,
and
they
will
be
looking
at
the
economy
and
inflation
as
well.
You
know
we're
continuing
to
keep
an
eye
on
what's
going
on
in
terms
of
insurance
claims,
and
you
know
again.
E
My
question
is
this:
we
often
hear
the
what
has
happened
over
the
past
year
as
a
false
economy,
simply
because
within
our
country
there
are
trillions
of
dollars
being
infused
government
dollars
and
how?
How
does
that
impact
your
ability
to
to
gauge
really
where
the
economy
is
both
on
a
federal
level
and
within
the
state
when,
when
the
dollars
that
are
being
spent
within
the
state,
many
are
are
coming
from
the
government.
So
how?
How
does
that
factor
in
how
do
you
all
account
for
that?
How
can
you
come
up?
E
D
So
I
think
I
want
to
make
two
distinctions
in
terms
of
of
of
your
question.
The
first
is:
how
do
things
look
right
now
and
you
know
in
kind
of
our
rear
view,
mirror
you
know
how?
How
have
we
done
over
the
past
year
and
a
half
since
we've
been
in
the
pandemic
and
then
where
I
think,
maybe
it's
a
more
important
question
is
what
does
this
mean
for
us
going
forward?
D
D
So
the
idea
behind
the
stimulus,
of
course,
is
that
you
know
when,
when
consumer
spending
or
business
spending
is
down,
you
know
if
we
can
prop
that
up
a
bit
with
fiscal
stimulu
fiscal
stimulus,
then
maybe
we
don't
lose
these
relationships.
We
have
you
know,
businesses
don't
shut
down,
we
don't
see
destruction
of
jobs,
and
so
we
can
keep
those
going
for
a
period
of
time.
The
issue
is,
then:
how
do
we
transition,
as
as
consumer
demand
starts
to
come
back?
D
How
do
we
transition
then
to
consumer
demand
driving
those
jobs
as
opposed
to
the
stimulus
and
that's
a
tricky
thing,
and
that's
something
that
you
know
the
government
agencies
you
know
have
to
figure
out
how
they're
going
to
balance
that,
and
so
it's
a
matter
of
you
know
how
do
you
taper
that?
How
do
you
time
that?
And
can
you
do
that
in
such
a
way
that
you
don't
create
additional
problems
and
so
with
additional
problems?
Kind
of
think
about
the
situation
of
you
know.
D
If
we're
trying
to
maintain
employment,
we
can
add
stimulus
to
help
people
continue
to
work,
but
the
concern
is,
as
we
add,
stimulus
if
consumer
demand
is
high
and
we're
adding
that
stimulus,
then
government
demand
is
also
high.
Does
that
start
to
create
inflationary
pressures,
and
so
you
know
it's
kind
of
like
driving
down
a
car
and
you've
got
your
your
concrete
construction
barriers
on
one
side
and
you
get
the
semi
truck
on
the
other
side.
You
don't
want
to
oversteer
either
direction
right,
and
so
that's
the
same
situation
you
have
here.
D
D
With
this
situation
we
had
a
very
different
occurrence.
You
know
the
idea
was
you
had
workers
who
were
unemployed
because
of
a
health
issue,
and
we
didn't
really
understand.
You
know
how
that
was
going
to
play
out,
and
so
you
needed
to
provide
some
some
additional
benefits
for
them.
I
think
it
was
at
least
some
extent
expected
that
there
would
be
some
difficulties
as
the
economy
started
to
come
back
and
that
you
know
you'd
have
to
think
about
what
is
the
appropriate
timing
for
the
unemployment
insurance
benefits
and
when
those
should
should
end.
E
It
are
the
the
factors
that
have
caused
the
shortage
in
labor
and
it
seems
to
be
more
prevalent
in
in
those
maybe
that
that
wage
category
are
there
particular
reasons
that
would
make
it
more.
The
the
the
supply
of
employ
employment
being
affected
more
at
a
higher
level
in
in
those
industries,
and
I'm
not
asking
this
correctly.
D
I
don't
know
that
it's
obvious,
you
know
again.
You
know,
I
think
we
can
point
to
certain
things
that
we
think
are
contributing,
but
it's
not
clear
to
me
how
much
each
of
those
factors
are
contributing.
So
as
we
move
across
different
sectors,
you
know,
I
think
you
know
all
those
probably
pay
place
some
degree
of
a
role,
and
you
know
I
might
you
know,
look
at
leisure
and
hospitality.
As
you
know,
I
had
those
list
of
different
factors
contributing
to
lower
labor
force
participation
rates.
D
You
know,
I
could
certainly
see
where
some
all
those
would
play.
Some
role
retirement
may
not
be
as
substantial
in
that
particular
sector.
Child
care
might
again
just
kind
of
depending
on
who
fills
those
types
of
positions,
and
so
you
know
it's
really
hard
for
us
to
know
exactly
how
each
of
those
contribute.
Okay,.
E
And
these
would
be
the
jobs
that
you
know
with
the
unemployment
and
then
the
extra
dollars
that
come
in
with
the
unemployment
and
the
stimulus
checks.
That
would
likely
you
would
be
making
more
money
by
not
working,
and
so
there's
a
lot
of
talk
that
that
has.
That
is
what
has
caused
that
labor
market
to
decline
within
those
jobs.
Simply
because
you
make
more
money
by
staying
at
home.
Is
that
a
logical
conclusion?.
A
D
I
don't
track
the
progress
of
this
of
the
additional
funds
that
are
coming
in
terms
of
fiscal
stimulus,
so
I
don't
know
you
know
how
that
is
going
to
be
proceeding.
You
know,
there's
always
a
concern
that
you
know
with
fiscal
stimulus.
You
know
that
you
know
it
may
tend
to
come
at
a
time
where
consumer
demand
is
is
high
and
that
you
know,
if
you
have
you
know,
consumer
demand
and
government
demand
increasing
and
supply
not
able
to
keep
up
that.
That
would
tend
to
push
prices
up.
D
One
of
the
things
has
to
do
with
what
is
the
slack
capacity
that
we
have
in
our
economy.
We
know
we're
not
operating
at
full
capacity,
we're
still
operating
well
below
where
we
were,
even
though
output
has
really
come
back.
There
are
a
lot
of
reasons
to
think
that
there
is
additional
capacity
where
supply
could
be
increased.
D
A
That
seems
more
of
a
permanent
exit
from
the
workforce.
Now
I
understand
people
can
retire
and
come
back
in,
but
that
one
seems
more
permanent
in
nature,
skills
and
geographic
mismatch.
We
can
try
to
work
on.
That's
a
longer
range
problem,
enhanced
unemployment
benefits
that
should
be
a
short-term
factor.
A
D
We
don't
have
specific
data
on
kentucky.
You
know
we
know
from
national
studies
that
retirements
have
increased
well.
Yes,
these
people
are
permanent.
Well,
they
could
be
permanently
out
of
the
labor
force.
You
know
some
of
them
may
come
back.
You
know
we
saw
this
in
the
last
recession.
You
know,
particularly
in
construction.
You
had
a
lot
of
workers
leave
the
labor
force
because
you
know
construction.
You
know,
work
had
really
kind
of
kind
of
ended.
D
Well,
it
had
slowed
down
substantially,
and
so
you
had
a
lot
of
construction
workers
who
maybe
were
getting
close
to
retirement
age,
and
so
you
know
what
were
they
going
to
do
they
retired
early?
And
so
we
see
that
now
right,
you
know
we're
seeing
the
same
type
of
thing.
You
have
a
lot
of
people
who
are
close
to
retirement
that
maybe
they
were
going
to
retire
in
2021
or
2022
or
23
or
so
on
and
so
they're
retiring
a
few
years
early
now
some
of
those
people
may
come
back
as
the
economy
improves.
B
B
Okay,
do
you
follow
a
quick
follow-up
question,
mr
chairman?
Thank
you.
I've
I've
come
across
some
information
that
kentucky's
dependency
on
the
federal
government
has
significantly
increased
about
or
probably
ranking
around.
Four
of
all
the
states
out
there
and
the
personal
income
is
becoming
more
of
a
significant
coming
from
the
government,
more
significant
play
in
that
and
then
what
the
chairman
mentioned
in
terms
of
more
mining,
coming
down
the
pipe
and
so
forth.
D
Not
I
I
so
so
we're
actually
talking
about
a
couple
of
different
things
here.
You
know
kentucky's
dependency
on
on
essentially
transfer
payments
and
other
types
of
federal
support,
and
we,
you
know,
I
haven't
looked
at
the
numbers
in
some
time,
but
you
know
we
do
compared
to
other
states,
receive
a
relatively
large
portion
of
our
total
personal
income
from
transfer
payments,
and
so
you
know
those
are
things
that
you
know
tend
to
be
fairly
stable.
D
You
know
I
mean
taking
aside
unemployment
insurance,
but
things
like
social
security,
disability
payments
and
things
of
that
nature.
Those
tend
to
be
things
that
are
fairly
stable
and
really
are
not
really
tied
to
kind
of
the
economic
performance,
so
I
don't
necessarily
see
those
being
being
huge
issues.
B
Thank
you,
mr
chair
and
professor.
I
appreciate
your
your
information.
I
I've
got
a
couple
of
questions
or
concerns
with
you'd
mentioned
the
the
wage
pressure
and
you
you
anticipate
that
to
decrease
when
you,
when
you
correlate
that,
with
the
inflationary
rate,
you
know
that
you
alluded
or
I
and
please
correct
me
if
I'm
wrong,
but
you
you
talked
about
the
increase
in
wages
that
employers
have
had
to
come
up
to
offset
unemployment
bonuses
to
incentivize
these
people
to
come
back
to
work
in
that.
B
Have
you
calculated
that
when
the
unemployment
benefit
goes
away,
do
you
anticipate
those
wages
to
go
back
down?
Are
these
employers
going
to
be?
Are
you
anticipating
that
to
stay
at
that
level,
and
would
that
not
push
inflation
even
further,
rather
than
you
know,
is
that
is
that
in
your
considerations
or
your
projections,.
D
So
I
haven't
made
any
projections
or
calculations,
but
you
know
we
can
kind
of
think
about.
You
know
what
things
might
look
like
as
the
enhanced
unemployment
benefits
expire
and
so
to
the
extent
that
that
is
contributing
to
to
workers.
Not
you
know
getting
off
unemployment,
insurance
and
and
finding
jobs
and
again
you
know
we're
not
sure
how
much
of
an
effect
that
is
having,
but
to
the
extent
that
it
is
having
effect
as
those
expire.
We
would
start
to
see
more.
D
We
would
expect
to
see
more
people
moving
back
into
the
labor
force
and
searching
for
work,
and
so,
what's
probably
going
to
happen,
is
that
would
ease
some
of
that
waste.
Wage
pressure
doesn't
mean
wages
necessarily
go
down,
but
they
may
not
continue
to
go
up
as
much
and
so
as
they
stop
increasing
as
much.
We
might
not
see
as
much
wage
or
inflation
pressure
as
a
result
of
that.
Okay.
B
One
follow-up
question:
you
mentioned
the
output
increase
even
with
a
lower
unemployment,
with
the
with
with
the
production.
Have
you
considered
or
taken
into
consideration
that
there
may
those
employees
may
not
be
needed
now
that
the
employers
have
figured
out,
we
don't
have
to
have
as
many
people
to
put
this,
their
output
is
higher.
So
would
that
offset
it
and
still
have
a
weight.
D
You
know
there
are
going
to
be
some
long-term
challenges
for
sure
and
and
we're
seeing
you
know.
As
you
go
about
your
business,
you
know
and
you
go
to
different
stores
and
restaurants
you're,
seeing
where
there
has
been
a
change
in
how
businesses
operate.
You
know
they've
been
trying
to
figure
out
how
do
they
get
by
you
know
without
workers
you
know
to
continue
to
survive,
they've
had
to
adapt
to
this
situation,
and
I
think
that's
going
to
continue
to
play
a
role
now.
D
A
A
Similarly,
the
same
thing
is
true
about
our
inflation,
inflation
generally
and
wage
growth.
You
can't
really
look
at
one
without
the
other,
for
instance,
if
you
have
four
percent
increase
in
wages,
but
you
have
a
5.2
percent
increase
in
inflation.
Your
wage
growth
is
actually
negative
in
the
pocket
feel
for
someone
on
the
ground.
Absolutely.
A
Yeah,
and
so
we
need
to
take
careful
note
that
yeah
wage
growth-
and
that
sounds
good,
but
your
inflation
has
to
come
down
to
actually
give
it
a
net
positive
or
else
you're
actually
losing
ground.
So
right
now,
even
though
we've
got
uptick
in
wages,
we
arguably
are
losing
ground
because
of
inflation.
A
Hopefully
that
comes
down
and
continues
to
come
down,
but
we've
got
to
keep
an
eye
on
that
accurate
enough.
That's
that's
correct.
You
have
to
watch
both
of
those
all
right
and
lastly,
I'm
just
going
to
ask
this
any
recommendations
for
this
committee
to
keep
an
eye
on
certain
factors:
listen
for
certain
things
or
consider
certain
things
as
we
approach
the
upcoming
budget
session
and
trying
to
get
a
feel
for
where
kentucky's
going
economically.
D
E
Absolutely
thank
you,
mr
chairman,
just
real
quickly
when
you
talk
about
the
the
calculation
for
the
unemployment
rate
and
that
the
group
of
people
who
are
not
employable
or
are
are
not
actively
looking
for
a
job.
How
does
kentucky
rank
as
far
as
maybe
per
capita
or
compared
to
other
states
in
that
area?.
D
I
haven't
looked
at
how
we
rank
in
terms
of
other
states.
You
know,
obviously
in
one
of
my
slides
I
showed
how
we
rank
how
we
compare
to
the
us,
but
I
haven't
looked
in
some
time
now
the
annual
report
that
we
have.
I
think
it
may
have
some
additional
information
looking
at
some
competitor
states,
and
so
you
know
I'd
refer
you
to
that.
But
I
don't
know
off
the
top.
E
D
In
terms
of
the
classification,
yes,
I
mean
we
might
call
call
you
up
and
ask
you
about,
you
know:
are
you
working?
You
know
what
type
of
search
activity
did
you
did?
You
engage
in
terms
of
trying
to
find
a
job,
but
if
you
didn't
engage
in
some
active
search
for
a
job,
then
you
would
likely
be
classified
as
not
in
the
labor
force.
Okay,
except
for
you
know
some
small
exceptions.
E
And
I
don't
guess
I
ever
would
have
imagined
that
that
would
have
been
the
way
that
we
determine
those
rates.
I
mean
it's
basically
nothing
more
than
a
survey
and
how
accurate
are
surveys
I
would
have
thought
there
would
have
been
a
more
scientific
way
that
we
we
calculated
those
rates.
So
that's
that's
something
different.
Do
you?
Do
you
feel
comfortable
with
that
that
their
accuracy
in
those
methods.
D
I
think
generally,
they
are
accurate.
You
know,
there's
a
lot
of
work
and
research
put
into
developing
these
unemployment
rates.
I
think
you
have
to
understand,
though,
that
there
are
limitations,
because
you
know
how
else
are
we
going
to
find
out
about
individuals,
employment
situations
except
to
ask
them?
You
know,
as
I've
talked
to
different
groups,
you
know
I
found
that
some
people
are
surprised
that
it's
not
based
on
the
number
of
people
who
are
filing
for
unemployment,
insurance,
there's
a
good
reason.
We
don't
do
that.
D
D
It
is
subject
to
a
margin
of
error
and
there
is
noise
in
those
numbers
from
time
to
time,
and
particularly
you
know,
when
we've
run
into
this
pandemic,
and
things
have
just
been
so
different,
it
has
at
times
been
a
challenge
to
collect
that
data.
So
you
can
imagine
you
know
if
you
go
around
send
you
know
somebody
to
knock
on
somebody's
door
during
the
pandemic.
D
E
D
I
don't
recall
any
specific
reports
at
the
moment
that
really
focus
on
the.
Why
now
the
survey
data
that
is
is
collected
does
ask
questions
about
why
they're
not
in
the
labor
force,
and
so
you
know,
it'd
be
possible
to
do
some
analysis.
You
know
certainly
at
the
national
level
sample
sizes
get
small
at
the
state
level,
and
so
we
may
not
get
real
accurate
data
for
that
small
of
a
group.
B
Meredith,
mr
sharon,
thank
you
just
a
quick
clarification
follow
up
on
senator
carroll's
question
for
you,
because
I
think
you
may
notice
earlier
that
unemployment
rate
by
itself
really
doesn't
have
a
whole
lot
of
value
that
we
really
need
to
look
at
in
the
context
of
also
the
labor
participation
rate.
Correct
yes,
sir,
and
since
there's
not
an
exact
science
to
this
by
any
means.
D
We
we
do
have
different
numbers
available
that
look
at
different
situations
that
workers
find
themselves
in.
So
we
actually
we
don't
hear
about
these
very
often,
but
we
actually
have
a
number
of
different
measures
of
unemployment
that
look
at
a
lot
of
those
different
situations,
and
so
you
know
that
information
is
available.
D
B
I
think
that'd
be
beneficial
to
us.
You
know
if
we
say
just
for
discussion
purposes
and
kentucky
unemployment
rates.
Four
percent,
but
you've
got
a
participation
rate.
That's
25,
20,
25,
worse
than
national
average.
That
really
the
the
effective
rate
is
more
like
six
percent
rather
than
four
percent,
and
I
think
that
gives
a
clearer
picture,
but
again
just
want
to
reinforce
it.
We
look
at
unemployment
rate,
but
also
labor
petition
rate,
libertarian
rate
to
get
the
clearer.
B
D
And
the
trends
over
time,
you
know
how
are
these
changing
again?
The
numbers
that
I
prefer
to
look
at
are
the
employment
numbers.
How
many
jobs
do
you
have?
How
many
people
do
you
have
working,
because
those
are
the
people
who
are
supporting
the
well?
Their
income
is
what
is
going
into
the
economy
and
it's
also
going
into
your
tax
revenues.
D
So
you
know
when
I
look
at
this:
it's
not
just
the
unemployment
rate.
It's
how
many
people
do
you
have
working
in
your
district.
That
is
really
really
important.
How
many
jobs
do
you
have
and,
as
you
start
thinking
about
how
that
has
changed,
and
all
these
other
people
who
maybe
are
not
working,
you
start
thinking
about
well,
if,
if
that's
a
large
number
of
people
that
I
have
who
are
not
in
the
labor
force
are
not
employed,
what
are
the
reasons?
D
And
you
know
if,
if
you're
representing
a
district-
or
maybe
you
have
an
older
population,
I'm
not
at
all
going
to
tell
my
father
that
he
needs
to
to
get
back
into
the
labor
force
participation.
You
know
he
our
rate's
low.
He
needs
to
get
a
job.
I'm
not
going
to
tell
him
that,
but
it's
important
to
kind
of
understand
what
are
the
characteristics
within
your
your
areas
that
maybe
contribute
to
these
different
labor
force
participation
rates.
B
I
would
agree-
and
you
know
we
think,
in
terms
of
workforce
development
policies
that
we're
trying
to
develop.
We
need
to
be
aware
of
that,
because
just
not
having
the
workforce,
there
there's
subject
a
lot
of
different
interpretation
as
to
how
we
develop
that
workforce
and
that's
good
information.
But
thank
you.
Thank
you,
mr
chair.
B
Quickly,
I
think
I
heard
you
say
something
I
want
to
make
sure
I
understand
you
say:
you're
not
going
to
tell
your
father
to
go,
get
a
job
because
labor
force
participation
rate
is
low.
My
understanding
is
your
father
likely
wouldn't
be
in
that
because
that's
working
age
population.
So
my
question
is
this
effectively
one
out
of
every
two
kentuckians
within
working
age
population
is
not
working.
Our
employment
rate
is
about.
53
of
my
understanding
is
working
age.
Able-Bodied
people
is
that
correct,
and
you
said,
with
some
exceptions,
who's
pulled
out
of
that.
B
D
We
typically
see
we
I'm
not
creating
the
numbers
but
civilian.
What
we're
referring
to
is
the
civilian
non-institutional
population,
so
the
military
is
not
included
in
that.
The
people
who
are
institutionalized
or
maybe
in
prisons,
are
not
included
in
that,
and
people
age,
15
and
younger
are
not
included
in
that
now.
D
My
father
is,
you
know
he
would
be
calculated
in
our
labor
force,
participation
rate
and
he's
going
to
be
thrilled
to
hear
how
much
he
play
a
role
he
played
in
today's
presentation
and
I'm
going
to
be
in
the
car
with
him
for
10
hours
this
weekend.
So
you
know
this
is
going
to
be
a
fun
fun
weekend.
You.
D
His
name
is
harrison
g
clark,
but
yes,
he
he,
you
know
when
we
look
at
the
official
labor
force,
participation
rate
it's
16
and
over
so
you
know,
even
people
who
are
are
you
know
in
their
70s
80s
would
be
in
that
number.
Now
we
also
see
oftentimes
people
using
different
cuts
of
the
population,
one
of
the
ones
that
I
like
to
look
at
to
deal
with
this
issue
of
you
know
you
got
a
lot
of
people
in
school.
D
That's
not
a
problem
with
your
labor
force
if
you've
got
a
lot
of
people
investing
in
education
and
if
I've
got
a
lot
of
people
who
are
maybe
older,
that's
not
necessarily
a
problem,
so
oftentimes.
What
we
do
is
we
look
at
the
prime
age
workers
which
would
be
like
25
to
maybe
55
or
something
like
that.
D
A
E
D
A
A
C
A
A
C
All
right:
well,
I
wanna
mainly
talk.
You
know,
I'm
here
to
talk
about
the
prior
fiscal
year.
2021
and
most
of
it
is
a
revenue
story
and
it's
what
an
unexpected
one
and
that
it
was
and
I'm
a
touch
base
on
both
the
general
fund
and
the
road
fund,
both
on
the
revenues
and
and
the
final
surplus
calculations.
C
So
I've
got
a
chart
here
for
the
general
fund
revenues
for
fiscal
year.
2021.,
you
see
the
major
categories
of
tax
types
to
the
left.
The
first
column
of
numbers
are
the
actual
receipts,
12.8
billion
dollars
and
right
next
to
it
was
the
budgeted
estimate
for
fiscal,
21,
11.7
billion
dollars,
and
so
the
result
you
know
over
to
the
right
of
it
was
a
1.1
billion
dollar
revenue
surplus,
which
is
an
amazing
number,
a
number
that
is
more
than
triple
the
highest
revenue
surplus
that
we
know
about.
C
C
That
was
the
highest
annual
growth
rate
in
26
years,
and
you
can
see
led
by
the
top
three
tax
types,
sales
and
use
individual
income
and
the
business
taxes,
corporation
income
tax
and
the
limited
liability
entity
tax.
Those
taxes
make
up
80
of
our
general
fund
revenues
and
they
made
up
about
87
of
the
surplus.
C
C
That
was
the
you
know
that
was
the
april
may
and
june
of
2020.
You
know
right
the
most
affected
by
covet
19..
You
can
see
we
had
a
unsurprisingly
decline
in
revenues
at
that
time,
a
four
and
a
half
percent
decline
in
that
final
fiscal
quarter,
even
though
we
ended
the
year
with
positive
revenues
and
then,
as
we
moved
into
the
fiscal
year,
we
just
ended
the
first
quarter,
a
growth
rate
of
5.8
percent,
the
second
quarter,
5.3
percent,
the
third
quarter
6.7
and
then
an
amazing
25
increase
in
quarter.
Four.
C
Now
that's
countered
against
that
minus
four
and
a
half
percent
of
the
prior
fiscal
quarter
and
fiscal
20,
but
still
really
outstripped
both
expectations
and
the
prior
year.
So
some
milestones
about
that
the
sales
tax,
the
12
increase
the
highest
growth
rate.
Since
we
raised
the
sales
tax
from
five
to
six
percent
back
in
the
session
online
sales
tax
expanded
to
over
270
million
one
of
the
better
things
that
all
the
sales
tax
states,
with
the
exception
of
missouri,
who
just
finally
came
on
board,
passed
the
online
sales
tax.
C
That
was
truly
a
prescient
act
by
states
all
across
the
country
because
it
really
maintained
the
ability
to
retain
the
sales
taxes
on
consumer
consumption.
You
know
that
went
heavy
into
the
online
during
the
kovit
for
the
business
taxes
that
was
a
38.1
percent
growth
rate
for
fiscal
21
between
the
two
tax
types
mentioned
here.
That's
the
highest
we've
had
since
fiscal
2006.,
and
it
was
a
real
big
change
from
the
prior
four
fiscal
years,
where
growth
rates
were
basically
flat
and-
and
here
we
had
a
38
increase.
C
Well,
clearly
that
that
showed
that
you
know
it's
always
tough
to
predict.
You
know
the
underlying
trends
related
to
corporation
income.
Tax
is
one
of
the
toughest
revenue
types
to
forecast,
but
clearly
we
had
a
situation
of
high
profitability
and
firms.
Are
you
know
finding
that
the
even
limited
supplies
you
all
talked
about
in
the
prior
presenter?
C
Consumption
can
boost
margins,
so
that
was
a
very
positive
result.
Property
taxes,
while
not
a
huge
portion
of
the
general
fund,
did
grow
9.2
percent.
I
wanted
to
highlight
that
real
property
growed
grew
at
4.4
percent
the
highest
in
14
years.
Assessments
were
the
primary
reason.
They
grew
six
and
a
half
percent,
it's
you
know,
and
it's
going
to
be
the
first
year
in
in
this
the
year.
We
just
started
in
which
we're
going
to
have
to
adjust
the
state
sales
tax,
I'm
sorry
the
state
property
tax
rate.
C
Given
the
limitations,
you
know,
have
a
house
bill
44.,
but
another.
The
real
outlier
here
was
tangible,
tangible
property
receipts
which
grew
16
percent,
but
led
by
motor
vehicles
at
23
growth
rates,
so
that
is
associated
with
the
car
sales
that
you
all
have
talked
about
previously,
but
and
then
I'll
talk
about
a
little
bit
further.
When
I
hit
the
road
fund
other
highlights
the
individual
income
tax.
Withholding
is
the
largest
component
of
individual
income
tax
and
grew
by
5.9.
C
That's
the
highest.
We've
had
since
fiscal
2015.,
even
when
you
account
for
unemployment
insurance
benefits
that
were
withheld,
the
growth
rate
would
have
been
5.8
percent.
So
so
again,
a
very
positive
element
and
some
of
what
mike
clark
showed
you,
you
know
kind
of
respond
to
the
fact
that
high-wage
workers,
middle-income
workers
primarily
were
not
heavily
affected
in
terms
of
their
income
and
their
their
jobs
related
to
covet
19.
estimated
payments
were
high
16.7.
C
C
the
sales
tax
that
12
increase.
We
are
seeing
a
lot
of
similarities
across
our
peer
states.
Many
states
have
experienced
double-digit,
percentage,
growth
rate
in
their
sales
tax
and
then
the
lottery.
One
of
your
subcommittees
this
morning
had
a
hearing
with
the
higher
education
assistance
authority,
which
spends
most
of
our
lottery.
Funds,
brought
in
347
million
75
million
more
than
last
year
and
based
on
a
provision
in
the
appropriations
bill.
58
million
of
the
excess
is
parked
and
awaiting
this
position
in
the
next
budget.
C
Here
let
me
talk
about
briefly
about
the
surplus.
I
just
talked
about
the
revenues
being
above
the
enacted
estimate
by
1.1
billion,
but
we
also
have
spending
lapses.
That's
unexpected
general
fund
appropriations
of
41
million
in
another
item
of
other
of
8
million,
so
our
total
surplus
for
fiscal
year
21
in
the
general
funds,
1
billion
172.7,
so
1.2
billion
almost,
and
let
me
a
little
bit
on
the
spending
lapses.
We
normally
don't
have
a
high
value
of
spending
lapses,
or
there
were
a
couple
of
things
that
happened.
C
Number
one
is
we
had
a
surprisingly
high
balance
in
our
health
insurance
budget
for
school
district
employees,
so
it
was
almost
16
million
dollars
and
that's
simply
a
function
of
head
count
because
we
have
a
fixed.
You
know
value
of
of
the
employer,
contribution
to
premiums
and
the
waiver
contributions,
so
the
simply
amount,
a
function
of
fewer
numbers
of
participants,
also
in
the
area
of
corrections.
C
That's
based
upon
just
lower
prison
population,
whether
it
was
in
the
institutions
due
to
medical
and
food
cost
or
whether
it
was
in
the
county
jails
where
we
had
a
lower
head
count
than
budgeted
and
therefore
you
know
didn't
pay.
We
didn't
have
to
pay
for
them.
So
that's
a
little
bit
of
the
highlights
on
the
spending
lapses.
So,
in
the
budget
bill
there
is
a
general
fund
surplus
expenditure
plan
which
guides.
What
do
you
do
with
any
general
fund
surplus?
C
One
of
the
first
things
is
the
ability
to
set
aside
some
amount
for
the
upcoming
year
for
necessary
governance
government
expenses.
Those
are
things
like
matching:
fema
disaster
grants
the
calling
out
of
the
national
guard.
We
have
several
several
other
items
that
in
the
budget
bill
give
authority
when
they
exceed
their
appropriated
amounts
to
be
able
to
pay
for
them.
So
we
set
aside
10
million.
We
set
us
out
15
million
last
year,
but
didn't
spend,
but
a
little
over.
You
know
three
and
a
half
million.
C
I
believe-
and
one
of
the
reasons
was
some
of
the
additional
assistance
that
the
federal
government
gave
in
regard
to
the
work
of
the
national
guard
and
then
so.
Our
deposit
to
the
budget
reserve
trust
fund
becomes
the
primary
use
of
the
general
fund
surplus.
So
here
we've
got
a
deposit
of
1
billion,
162
million.
C
That
is,
you
know
that
is
a
amazing
amount
of
surplus.
That's
going
to
the
general
fund
budget
reserve
trust
fund.
Let
me
talk
about
that.
Our
rainy
day
fund,
so
with
that
deposit,
it's
the
largest
deposit,
ever
no
surprise.
This
last
year
was
actually
the
second
highest
162
million,
and
that
brings
our
budget
reserve
trust
fund
balance
up
to
over
1.9
billion
dollars,
which
is
equivalent
to
16
percent
of
our
fiscal
22
general
fund
appropriations
and
as
a
contrast,
entering
the
great
recession.
C
You
know
the
balance
in
that
rainy
day
fund
was
only
two
2.3
percent
of
the
general
fund,
then,
so
we
have
moved
substantially
with
this
past
year
into
having
a
rainy
day
fund
that
is,
is
surprisingly
high
and
very
good
news.
Kentucky
has
for
years
been
one
of
the
lowest
ranked
states
in
terms
of
the
size
of
its
general
rainy
day
fund,
and
so
we
have
fixed
that
problem
in
one
fiscal
year.
C
C
When
we
had
the
pandemic,
we
had
a
really
large
reduction
in
motor
vehicle,
youtube's
attacks,
but
in
any
case-
and
I'm
going
to
talk
about
the
highlights
that
is
extremely
high,
but
just
as
importantly,
as
the
motor
fuels
actual
receipts,
only
seven
plus
million
shy
of
the
estimate,
but,
more
importantly,
that
number
to
the
right.
It
was
a
growth
over
the
prior
fiscal
year
and
given
what
was
happening
during
the
pandemic,
you
know
we
really.
C
Motor
fuels
took
the
biggest
hit
in
the
final
quarter
of
last
year,
understandably,
as
the
amount
of
miles
driven
dropped
substantially.
So
that
was
very
positive
and
and
very
difficult
to
estimate.
Our
revenue
forecasters
clearly
hit
right
on
that
one.
A
few
other
things
you
know
that
were
higher
in
terms
of
estimates,
motor
vehicle
license
motor
vehicle
operators.
C
C
You
know,
the
road
fund
has
has
not
been
a
rising
source
of
revenue,
given
the
the
the
given
the
same
gas
tax
rate
and
if
mileage
efficiency,
you
know
that
that
comes
with
vehicles
these
days
and
so
so
a
very,
very
positive.
You
know
fiscal
result
on
the
motor
vehicle
usage
tax.
We
broke
the
600
million
total
receipts
for
the
first
time
and
that's
the
highest
annual
amount
by
more
than
100
million.
C
So
again,
just
the
phenomenon
of
high
demand
for
the
purchase
of
cars
really
was
something
that
that
wasn't
expected
but
has
resulted
in.
You
know
a
very
positive
revenue
growth.
Then
I'll
just
remind
the
committee.
This
is
the
we're
in
the
seventh
fifth.
This
was
the
seventh
fiscal
year
of
the
of
the
same
gas
tax
rate
and
at
three
of
the
last
six
years
prior
to
fiscal
21.
We
actually
had
declines
in
a
year
over
year
of
that
category.
C
So
let's
talk
about
the
road
fund
surplus,
64
million
dollars
in
revenue
surplus,
but
a
97
million
dollar
total
road
fund
surplus
and
that
had
to
do
with
spending
less
than
budgeted,
primarily
in
the
trent
in
the
transportation
cabinet
and
a
couple
of
things
that
are
understandable,
like
in
vehicle
regulation,
the
pandemic,
you
know,
put
a
pause
on
the
ability
to
progress
on
standing
up.
You
know
the
regional
driver's
licensing
locations
and
other
things
and
and
the
in
in
the
transportation
cabinet.
C
The
administrative
areas
spent
much
less
than
was
budgeted
because
remember
in
the
construction
account
in
the
highways
budget.
In
for
construction,
any
leftover
balance
continues
into
the
next
fiscal
year
so
that
it's
not
included
in
here
as
it
lasts,
because
that
funding
rolls
over
year
over
year
because
of
the
multi-year
features
of
spending
on
on
rokin
and
bridge
construction.
C
So
97
million
the
the
budget
bill
puts
all
of
the
road
fund
surplus
into
the
highway
state
construction
account
97
million.
That
is
the
the
largest
number
we
have
put
into
the
highway
construction
account
in
25
years,
and
actually
I
don't
have
the
data
prior
to
that.
So
it
could
be
much
higher,
but
you
know
very
good
news
on
both
fronts.
A
couple
of
things
that
I
didn't
mention
before
mr
chairman,
but
wanted
to
touch
on,
is,
as
we
look
forward
to
fiscal
22
in
the
general
fund.
B
C
Certainly
I'll
give
that
a
try.
Thank
you
for
the
question
number
one
is
that
the
the
economy
adapted
more
quickly
to
the
pandemic
than
anyone
expected.
You
know
no
question
about
that.
We
also
saw
that
the
significant
job
loss
that
happened
at
the
beginning
of
the
pandemic
was
highly
concentrated
in
low-wage
workers
and
low-wage
workers.
Do
not
pay
a
lot
of
income
taxes.
That's
not
a
negative,
that's
not
a
criticism.
C
It's
just
true,
and
so
middle-income
and
high-wage
workers
were
able
to
maintain
their
income,
and
so
therefore,
the
income
tax
and
withholding
was
able
to
not
only
hold,
but
it
actually
rose
more
than
expected
sales
tax
that
12
growth
rate
again
you'll
see
national
information
on
savings
rates
where
they
they
drastically
increased.
Due
to
the
pandemic,
individuals
were
not
spending
money
say
on
travel.
They
were
not
going
out
to
restaurants.
Instead,
they
were
spending.
C
You
know
on
more
tangible
goods,
those
of
which
those
goods
we
tax
and
so,
and
so
the
federal
infusion
early
on
the
paycheck
protection
program
for
businesses
and
the
household
payments
to
the
individuals
clearly
was
an
assist
in
in
propping
up
the
consumer
behavior,
particularly
of
lower
income
workers
and
for
more
middle
income.
One
of
the
things
it
did
was
actually
raise
their
savings
rate,
but
also
clearly,
they
had
a
greater
amount
of
consumer
consumption
activity.
You
know,
as
indicated
by
by
our
sales
tax
increases.
C
B
B
Thank
you,
mr
chairman.
Maybe
we'll
get
dr
clark
up
here
to
opine
on
that
last
question.
Yeah,
I'd
see
that
you
know
I
I
had
to
chuckle
when
you
said,
there's
a
great
deal
of
uncertainty
in
the
data,
because
I
think
that
every
economic
doctrinal
dissertation
has
to
end
with
there's
a
great
deal
of
uncertainty
in
this
data
or
you
automatically
flunk.
But
all
that
being
said
in
director
hicks.
B
Those
who
are
more
likely
to
be
laid
off
were
in
the
low
less
than
the
median
income
median
household
income
of
the
commonwealth,
and
those
folks
who
are
less
than
the
median
household
income
were
in
fact
more
positively
impacted
by
the
unemployment
and
enhanced
unemployment
benefits.
Consequently,
we
actually
saw
them
as
greater
participants
in
the
income
tax
portion
of
the
general
fund
than
otherwise
we
would
have
necessarily
seen
them
in
a
regular
environment.
Is
that
correct.
C
I
think
some
of
that
is
correct,
as
sarah
mcdaniel
I
think,
in
some
cases,
because
of
the
way
our
income
tax
is
structured,
you
know
some
of
the
some
of
the
ultimate
income
levels
of
those
individuals
who
were
who
were
unemployed
and
receiving
benefits.
Were
you
know,
weren't
subject,
you
know
to
all
the
income
tax
because
of
the
deductions,
but
yeah
there's
no
question
that
that
that
there
was
an
input.
In
fact,
we
tracked
on
a
monthly
basis
on
a
withholding
those
individuals
who
opted
in
to
have
their
unemployment
benefits
withheld.
C
B
B
B
This
is
a
much
much
much
better
place
to
find
ourselves
in
than
we
did
eight
years
ago
when
we
did
not
have
a
rainy
day
fund
remaining
in
the
commonwealth,
but
I
will
remind
everybody
that
most
everyone
here
has
been
on
a
committee
recently,
where
you
heard
testimony
from
the
kentucky
teachers
retirement
system
that
at
a
minimum
they
will
require
an
additional
200
million
dollars
per
year
for
the
next
25
years
to
continue
to
keep
pace
with.
What's
going
on
there.
B
A
A
A
What
we
understand
will
be
a
sizable
increase
in
their
request
alone,
incarceration
costs,
which
are
a
large
portion
of
our
state
budget.
From
all
projections,
I
see
will
pick
up
pace
they
already
are.
They
will
continue
to
pick
up
pace.
I
don't
see
that
curtailing
very
much.
We
also
have
a
lot
of
pent
up
demand
during
the
covet
shutdowns
that
popped
out.
A
Almost
all
of
a
sudden
you've
got
some
fairly
statistic,
fairly
consistent
demands,
but
we
have
a
lot
of
aberrant
pop-outs
where
increased
demand,
pops
out
and
you've
got
shortages
on
cars
that
impact
that
demand.
Would
I
think,
next
year
or
the
next
two
years
we're
going
to
have
the
same
type
of
increases
or
numbers
on
car
sales?
Probably
not
even
if
we
have
chip
shortages
abated,
will
that
demand
still
be
there?
No,
because
everyone's
got
a
car
now
it'll
be
a
few
years
before
they
start
that
replacement
cycle
on
on
volume
numbers.
A
E
Comment,
mr
chairman,
just
along
the
lines
of
what
we
just
heard-
and
you
know
I
really
wish
I
could
get
excited
about
all
this
news,
and
it's
just
very
difficult,
though,
because
we
we
know
that
this
this
money
is,
is
basically
coming
from
the
federal
government
so
where
our
economy
may
very
well
be
on
fire.
But
it's
free
money,
that's
being
burned
and
it's
the
next
generations
that
are
going
to
have
to
pay
that
money
back
and
that's
a
given.
B
Thank
you,
mr
chair
director.
Hicks.
As
you
were,
giving
your
presentation.
I
was
reminiscing
about
march
2020
yourself,
rocky
atkins
came
over
and
sat
down
with
the
conference
committee
on
the
budget
and
there
weren't
many
smiles
in
the
room
that
day,
we
really
did
not
know
where
we
were,
and
one
thing
I
want
to
point
out
as
we
look
at
this
budget
surplus
at
that
point
in
time
we
were
prepared
to
make
some
additional
appropriation
increases.
B
We
made
the
decision
not
to
make
that
because
of
the
uncertainty.
So
as
we
look
at
this
budget,
even
though
it's
really
we're
still
behind
pace
with
what
we
need
to
do
providing
services
for
our
state,
so
that's
that's
important
to
remember
and
again
I
think.
Maybe
we
need
to
look
at
this
current
time,
maybe
over
a
period
of
two
three
four
years
and
kind
of
have
an
average
out
and
see
where
we
wind
up
wind
up
at
the
end
of
this
there's
a
lot
of
talk
in
washington.
B
You
mentioned
about
an
infrastructure
bill.
Money
coming
down.
Historically,
as
federal
dollars
have
come
to
the
state,
the
state's
been
required
to
put
up
a
match
a
lot
of
times,
it's
been
80,
historically
80
federal,
20
state,
or
is
the
commonwealth
of
kentucky
position
that
should
this
federal
dollars
come
in
to
be
able
to
make
their
our
state
portion
of
the
match?
If
it's
also
required
this
time.