►
From YouTube: NCSL 2020 Virtual Fiscal Leaders Seminar
Description
NCSL 2020 Virtual Fiscal Leaders Seminar
A
B
B
But
I'm
going
to
ask
you
to
do
it
by
adding
your
office
and
state
name,
office
and
state
and
to
your
name
and
if
you
have
the
ncsl
fiscal
affairs
name,
you
need
to
change
it
anyway.
So
to
do
that,
you
go
to
the
three
dots
in
the
upper
right
corner
of
your
picture
and
then
choose
rename
in
the
drop
down.
And
I
know
if
some
of
you
are
on
an
ipad
or
an
iphone.
You
might
not
be
able
to
do
that.
B
Just
let
us
know
in
the
chat,
and
we
can
do
it
for
you
and
we
want
this
to
be.
You
can
also
introduce
yourself
in
the
chat
too,
and
we
do
want
this
to
be
an
interactive
experience
for
all
of
you
so
feel
free
to
use.
The
chat
for
questions
and
you're
also
welcome
to
unmute
yourself
to
ask
a
question
directly
if
you
prefer
in
an
easy
way
to
unmute
yourself,
if
you
don't
want
to
mess
around
with
the
button,
is
you
just
press
on
the
spacebar
and
that
unmutes
you?
B
Your
feedback
really
helps
us
improve
our
program
and
the
link
to
the
evaluation
will
show
up
in
the
chat
later
on
in
the
program
so
that
wraps
up
housekeeping,
and
so
now
it's
my
great
pleasure
to
introduce
you
to
our
first
speaker
for
the
economic
outlook.
Chris
thornberg
is
the
founding
partner
of
beacon
economics
and,
as
I
mentioned
earlier,
you
have
access
to
his
full
bio.
B
C
Thank
you,
mandy.
That
is
my
favorite
kind
of
introduction,
short
and
sweet
and
pleasure
to
be
with
everybody
virtually
I
you
know
we
were
just
having
a
conversation.
I
I
talked
to
a
group
of
of
of
some
of
your
fellow
ncsl
folks
in
miami
a
couple
days
ago
and
reminding
me
that
as
good
as
zoom
is
it's
still
better
in
person.
But
with
that
in
mind,
I
can
still,
I
think,
convey
much
of
the
important
information
to
you
about.
C
C
For
some
of
the
survivors,
there
are
obviously
long
run,
complications
we're
in
the
midst,
of
course,
of
the
largest
search
to
date
in
the
united
states,
including
the
largest
number
of
new
deaths.
Obviously,
it's
been
a
grim
chapter
now,
a
little
context
now
you've
heard,
of
course,
a
lot
about
the
spanish
flu.
C
C
We
we
may
be
literally
swimming
in
vaccine
by
march
of
next
year
or
april
of
next
year,
so
as
as
tough
as
the
current
circumstances
are
we're
clearly
on
the
off
ramp.
It's
just
a
matter
of
getting
things
rolled
out,
but
we're
not
here
to
talk,
of
course
about
the
the
virus
per
se.
We're
here
to
talk
about
the
economy
and,
more
specifically
about
the
economic
debate
over
the
direction
of
the
economy.
C
There's
been
a
lot
of
clever
letters
out
there,
nike
swishes
square
root,
signs
wzells,
you
name
it,
but
if
you
really
want
to
talk
about
the
debate
about
the
economy,
where
things
are
heading,
I
could
boil
it
into
two
camps:
the
ucamp
and
the
v
camp.
The
you
camp
have
been
telling
us
right
from
the
get-go
that
this
thing
is
dramatic.
C
C
Our
call
on
this
was
a
v,
and
by
v
I
don't
mean
obviously
an
instantaneous
return
to
normality,
but
a
much
more
rapid
return
to
normality
than
one
would
anticipate
if
one
used
a
standard
business
cycle
as
your
lens
to
which
to
look
at
what's
happening
in
our
economy
today,
going
back
to
the
idea,
this
is
a
global
natural
disaster,
because
it's
a
global
natural
disaster.
It's
a
completely
different
kind
of
business
cycle.
The
lessons
of
past
business
cycles,
in
particular
the
great
recession,
are
simply
not
applicable
to
what's
happening
right
now.
C
What
people
don't
really
talk
about?
You
hear
all
these
grim
news,
but
the
recession
ended
in
april.
So,
yes,
this
was
the
deepest
recession
in
the
history
of
the
united
states.
Well,
at
least
in
the
last
80
years.
It
was
also
the
shortest
it
lasted
two
months
and
for
all
those
folks
who
continued
to
talk
about
this.
C
You
know
well,
when
the
when
the
covet
came,
the
economy
collapsed
at
a
depression
type,
you
know
degree,
that's
absolutely
true,
with
one
major
exception,
depressions
last
years,
not
weeks
we're
already
80
percent
back
and
now
with
the
virus
coming
online,
other
vaccines
coming
online,
we're
actually
probably
going
to
get
back
to
normal
much
faster
than
anybody
or
think
than
are
thinking
for
us.
It's
not
about
the
economy
where
the
economy
is
heading
over
the
next
year
is
pretty
clear
at
this
point
in
time.
C
Despite
again,
all
those
questions
being
constantly
asked
in
the
headlines
for
us,
the
bigger
issues
have
to
do
with
long-run
questions.
That
has
to
do,
of
course,
with
a
the
excessive
fiscal
and
monetary
reactions
to
this,
which
are
leading
to
potential
dangers
a
few
years
down
the
line
and
equivalently.
C
Obviously,
there's
a
lot
to
talk
about
here,
so
let's
just
dive
right
in
and
get
into
some
of
this
data
you've
heard
all
the
negative
headlines.
Here's
a
selection,
I've
grabbed!
You
know
this
is
a
depression
type
crisis,
multiple
quarters
of
negative
gdp,
the
the
you
know
as
bad
as
the
great
depression.
C
This
is
going
to
scar
the
labor
market
for
the
next
year.
Here's
a
good
way
of
looking
at
just
how
grim
some
of
these
early
forecasts
were.
This
is
a
congressional
budget
office
for
cap
forecast
that
came
out
in
june,
and
this
is
measured
by
output
gap.
The
gap
between
what
the
us
economy
could
produce
if
there
wasn't
any
major
economic
harm
versus
what
we're
actually
producing,
giving.
What's
going
on,
take
a
look
at
the
great
recession
that
of
course
started
in
2008.
C
We
know
it
was
a
six
quarter
downturn,
it's
known
as
the
worst
recession
in
the
worst
in
the
post-world
war
two
period,
but
when
you
think
about
the
pain
of
the
great
recession,
recognize
that
it
wasn't.
The
downturn
by
itself
rather
was
a
slow-paced
recovery.
When
you
think
about
the
underperformance
of
economic
output,
that
lasted
all
said
and
done
for
about
nine
years
during
the
great
recession,
it
was
a
very
slow,
painful
recovery,
and
that
is
why
it's
so
painful
and
you
can
see
that
the
the
cbo
was
predicting
something
very
similar.
C
They
were
talking
about
a
shock
to
our
economy
that
was
going
to
stay
in
the
system
for
something
on
the
order
of
seven
and
a
half
years
again,
big
big
numbers,
dramatic
losses,
and,
if
you're
looking
at
this,
it
would
put
you
in
a
bit
of
a
fiscal
panic,
as
the
case
may
be.
But
as
I
already
noted,
this
is
not
a
great
recession.
Type
scenario.
C
Look
the
great
recession
didn't
come
out
of
the
blue.
The
way
this
one
did.
The
great
recession
was
driven
by
the
massive
imbalances
that
formed
within
the
economy
in
the
run-up
to
the
great
recession,
during,
of
course,
the
subprime
lending
bubble.
You
remember
that
2001
to
2007
period,
where
15
trillion
dollars
of
bad
debt
entered
the
economy,
probably
one
of
the
greatest
financial
frauds
perpetuated
in
the
history
of
the
globe,
amazing
that
nobody
went
to
jail.
C
C
C
Those
millions
of
construction
workers
never
got
an
another
construction
job
and
it
wasn't
just
that
sector.
Other
sectors
saw
a
similar
permanent
decline
in
employment
opportunities.
We
had
flow
stock
problems.
We
had
too
many
homes
too
many
cars.
The
years
to
burn
off
those
excess
inventories
to
get
those
production
up
and
running
and,
of
course,
balance
these
issues,
think
of
the
households
with
the
massive
amount
of
debt,
and
none
of
that
false
wealth
that
they
thought
they
had
had,
or
banks,
of
course
that
were
dealing
with
all
the
bad
debt
problems
they
were
working
through.
C
It
was
a
long,
painful
recovery
because
of
this
restructuring.
Now
you
come
to
the
pandemic
and
again
as
tragic
as
it
was
and
dramatic.
As
some
of
the
early
numbers
were,
this
was
not
a
long
run
shock.
There
was
no
need
for
structural
rebound
rebuilding
in
the
back
end
of
this
thing,
this
thing
hit
an
economy
that
fundamentally
was
very,
very,
very
healthy.
Unlike
the
economy
of
2006.,
it's
a
norman,
it's
an
enormous,
transitory
shock,
rather
than
a
long
run.
C
Restructuring
shock,
it's
a
completely
different
kind
of
thing,
and
the
lessons
of
what
happened
during
the
great
recession
are
simply
not
applicable
to
now.
Now
it
isn't
to
say
this
thing
is
harmless.
Obviously,
with
this
thing
being
with
us
for
eight
nine
ten
months,
you
are
creating
damage
within
the
economy,
but
the
degree
of
damage
is
actually
from
a
relatively
mild
from
a
long
run.
Standpoint
and
you'll
see
that
as
we
get
a
little
bit
more
into
the
data,
take,
for
example,
on
the
left-hand
side.
Here
this
is
an
estimate
of
monthly
gdp.
C
It's
relatively
easy
to
make,
because
80
percent
of
gdp
actually
is
released
monthly
by
the
bea.
You
got
to
do
a
little
bit
of
manipulation
for
the
rest
of
it,
and
the
data,
of
course,
is
actually
looking
amazing.
You
can
see
again
that
15,
oh
12,
13
drop
off
in
gdp
at
the
beginning
of
this
thing,
we've
never
seen
a
drop
off
like
that,
but
again,
two
months
in
the
making.
C
We
are
already
starting
to
see
an
incredible
bounce
in
economic
activity
by
may
and
june,
and
indeed,
when
we
came
in
october,
we're
only
about
3.8
percent
off
a
long
run
trend
to
put
that
in
context.
Remember
that
cbo
forecast
that
output
gap
forecast,
they
said
the
output
gap
for
all
of
2021
was
going
to
be
4.1
and
in
october
it
was
only
3.8
percent.
Gives
you
a
sense
of
just
how
dramatically
wrong
that
number
was
now
what
caused
the
big
bounce?
Well
a
lot
of
it.
C
C
No
one
know
how
to
deal
with
it
from
policy
makers
down
to
businesses
down
to
consumers
and
the
economy
shut
down,
but
one
of
the
things
that
no
one
ever
really
gives
enough
credit
to
human
beings,
for
is
what
I
call
mitigation:
the
ability
to
figure
it
out
to
persevere
to
to
build
systems,
to
work
around
problems
in
front
of
you
and
that's
exactly
what
we
did.
80
of
the
rebound
in
economic
activity
occurred
while
the
virus
was
among
us,
it
was
mitigation.
C
People
are
tough,
were
smart,
they
figured
it
out
and
most
of
the
economy
came
back
now,
not
all
of
it.
Some
of
the
economy,
particularly
when
it
comes
to
recreation
and
tourism,
obviously
cannot
come
back
all
the
way
while
this
virus
is
still
here,
but
nevertheless,
quite
a
bit
of
the
economy
did
come
back
now
we're
in
the
second
stage
of
the
recovery,
which
is
containing
the
disease.
C
That's
the
next
few
months,
while
we
of
course
getting
the
vaccines
rolled
up
getting
people
inoculated
fighting
off
this
last
surge
and
then
once
that
comes
to
an
end,
which
will
probably
be
really
in
april
or
may.
When
we
get
full
control
over
this
thing,
then
we
get
that
last
stage,
which
is
the
final
return
to
normality
and
on
this
one
we
are
absolutely
positive.
It's
going
to
be
very
quick,
we're
not
going
to
come
out
of
this
with
a
lot
of
long
run
damage.
C
Indeed,
if
you
look
at
the
massive
degree
of
stimulus,
the
dry
powder
is
created
in
our
economy,
we
can
say
even
without
a
second
stimulus
package,
it's
going
to
be
a
very,
very
rapid
return
to
normality.
So
part,
two
mitigation:
this
is
one
of
the
interesting
graphs.
It's
an
and
the
left-hand
side
is
real
consumer
spending.
By
type
and
again,
you
could
see
the
big
drop
off
during
that
initial
panic,
but
look:
what's
happened
to
spending
service
spending.
C
That's
spending
on
hotels
and
restaurants
is
still
well
below
where
it
was
pre-pandemic,
but
good
spending
is
way
above
people
are
simply
shifting
their
demand.
Well,
I
can't
take
the
kids
to
disneyland,
so
I'm
going
to
buy
a
bunch
of
bikes
and
take
them
on
a
bike
trip
right.
That's
the
kind
of
choices
people
are
making
and
you
can
see
how
that's
moved
retail
markets.
C
On
the
right
hand,
side
retail
sales
by
the
way
are
well
above
trend
right
now,
while
it
is
true
that
restaurants,
gasoline
stations
and
clothing
stores
are
still
suffering,
online
sales
are
up.
25
hardware
stores
are
busy
as
all
get
out
sports
and
hobbies
motor
vehicles
there's
a
lot
of
economic
activity
occurring
in
some
parts
of
the
economy,
and
indeed
that
is
giving
a
big
lift
to
people
and
businesses
and
profits
in
those
particular
sectors.
It's
amazing
october
october
retail
sales
were
announced
and
they
didn't,
they
didn't
grow
very
much.
C
Oh,
it's
because
they're
stagnant,
I'm
in
the
last
surge.
Actually,
it's
because
they're
so
far
above
trend
that
people
are
running
out
of
space
in
their
garage.
Look.
Retail
sales
are
just
not
going
to
stay
this
hot
this
long
at
some
point
in
time,
there's
going
to
be
some
some
return
to
normality
on
this
particular
front
and,
of
course,
with
good
spending
coming
back.
Industrial
production
has
also
bounced
back
most
of
the
way
again
look
at
the
difference
between
the
great
recession
and
what
we've
seen
over
the
last
few
months
right.
C
The
bounce
back
is
so
intense.
It
looks
completely
different.
It's
a
it's
a
short
sharp
hit
to
the
economy,
not
this
long-run
dragon
kind
of
situation.
Imports
are
bouncing
back
up
exports,
not
so
much,
there's
still
some
global
issues
in
demand
and
again
some
sectors.
The
economy
is
still
struggling
accordingly,
corporate
profits.
We
just
got
the
third
quarter
numbers
for
corporate
profits.
They
look
really
good
and
that
of
course
goes
a
long
ways
towards
explaining
why
business
there
was
a
big
bounce
back
in
business.
C
Investment
in
the
third
quarter
still
a
little
bit
below
where
we
were
a
year
ago,
but
you
know
good
numbers
in
terms
of
equipment
coming
back
intellectual
property
coming
back
the
only
thing
really
lagging
out.
There
is
non-residential
structures,
but
at
some
level
that's
being
offset
by
an
incredibly
hot
residential
market
which
is
going
gangbusters
right
now
now
much
of
the
problem
in
the
commercial
real
estate
industry
is
actually
wrapped
around
oil
or,
more
specifically,
incredibly
low
oil
prices.
C
For
those
of
you
who
may
be
in
oil
states,
you
realize
this
is
not
a
new
problem.
Indeed,
the
globe
is
dealing
with
a
big
oil
glut,
since
about
2015
prices
have
have
really
been
at
at
marginal
cost,
for
extraction
of
oil
and,
as
such,
oil
exploration
slowed
down
a
lot
after
the
boom
boom
years
in
the
early
part
of
this
particular
decade.
Well,
of
course,
the
big
slowdown
in
driving
has
led
to
an
even
more
enormous
glut
and
some
of
the
biggest
hits
happening
on
this
anomaly.
C
In
terms
of
economic
activity,
are
in
these
energy
producing
states,
wyoming,
oklahoma,
west,
virginia
alaska,
louisiana,
north
dakota,
texas,
new
mexico.
These
lead
the
list
in
terms
of
sort
of
loss
of
revenues
moving
through
your
economies.
It's
a
commodity
effect
after
that.
Well
nevada
and
hawaii.
That's
tourism,
they're,
obviously
getting
hit
too.
But
of
course
again
you
can
see
how
things
are
shaking
out.
Overall
transaction
volumes
for
commercial
real
estate
slowed
down
a
lot.
C
Some
sectors
have
slowed
down
in
terms
of
construction,
the
ones
that
aren't
surprising,
lodging
amusement
recreation
but,
of
course,
office,
commercial,
healthcare
actually
doing.
Okay,
you've
seen
a
little
uptick
in
vacancy
rates.
It's
a
weakness
in
property
prices,
but
you
know
commercial
markets
take
years
to
respond,
and
this
is
not
a
years-long
type
event.
These
are
short-run
issues
and
again,
I
believe
they're
quickly
fade
away
and
remember
as
tough
as
those
sectors
are
getting
hit.
C
Housing
is
on
fire
and
yet
again,
if
this
was
truly
a
great
recession,
type
scenario,
housing
wouldn't
look.
This
strong
housing
is
one
of
the
best
reflections
of
what
I
call
true
consumer
confidence.
If
people
are
up
out
there
buying
homes,
they
are
confident
about
their
finances
and
about
their
ability
to
afford
this
particular
property,
and
you
can
see
how
it's
bounced
back
single-family
sales
way
above
trend
prices
which
slow
just
a
little
bit,
is
starting
to
re-accelerate.
C
C
I
was
a
little
appalled
by
that
particular
prediction
and
by
the
way,
he's
backed
off
a
lot
on
it
now,
but
to
be
clear,
those
kind
of
numbers
that
are
our
numbers
we
saw
were
like
we
saw
in
the
great
recession,
remember
the
great
recession.
The
housing
markets
were
so
bad
because
of
the
excesses
that
happened
prior
to
the
great
recession.
None
of
those
excesses
were
in
place
now,
mortgage
markets
have
been
incredibly
clean.
C
Overall
equity
levels
have
returned
to
normality,
been
very
slow
growth
and
overall,
a
mortgage
debt
and,
as
opposed
to
say,
prior
to
the
great
recession,
where
we
had
a
record
high
percentage
of
units
for
sale
for
rent
coming
into
the
pandemic.
We
had
a
record
low
share
for
sale
for
rent.
This
was
a
sturdy
housing
market
and
indeed
it
hasn't
had
any
kind
of
impact
on
it
starts
are
up
and
that's
helping
the
construction
market.
Now
the
multi-family
space
is
weaker.
There's
no
doubt
about
it.
C
It's
a
little
bit
more
investor
driven
investors
are
a
little
worrisome.
Obviously
there's
a
lot
of
issues,
particularly
in
terms
of
absorption
and
multi-family
markets,
because
people
aren't
moving
but
again
the
kind
of
headlines
you
hear
about
collapse
in
multi-family,
one
of
my
favorite
sort
of
doomsday
headlines
are
what's
hap
about,
what's
happening
in
apartments
in
san
francisco,
oh
san
francisco
everybody's
moving
away,
no
one's
going
to
live
downtown
again
and
there's
30
declines
in
rents,
and
none
of
those
statistics
are
true.
It's
just
it's.
C
Just
people
coming
up
with
horror
story
headlines
because
that's
how
you
attract
eyeballs,
not
how
you
educate
your
reader,
that's
the
sad
testimony
on
on
what's
going
on
out
there
in
news
land,
but
that's
exactly
what's
going
on,
rents
are
down
a
bit,
but
vacancy
rates
aren't
all
up
at
all.
This
is
an
absorption
problem
for
new
units
coming
online.
It's
not
actually
people
fleeing
cities,
as
the
case
may
be,
and
of
course,
you
know
across
the
united
states.
C
A
lot
of
folks
have
turned
people
not
being
able
to
pay
their
rent
into
an
existential
crisis.
There's
calls
right
now
for
a
national
moratorium
on
evictions,
as
if
somehow,
rather,
a
massive
number
of
people
are
on
the
edge
of
getting
evicted
they're.
Not.
This
is
one
of
the
things
yet
again
that
amazes
me:
we've
created
a
crisis
out
of
what
seemingly
is
thin
air.
We
don't
have
a
lot
of
data
on
whether
or
not
people
are
keeping
up
with
the
rents,
but
some
of
the
data
we
do
get.
C
C
And
it's
amazing
look
at
the
numbers
here,
you
can
see
well
we're
about
about
a
percent
and
a
half
less
fewer
renters
are
paying
on
time
now
compared
to
last
year.
Not
20
percentage
points,
not
30
percentage
points,
one
and
a
half
to
two
percentage
points.
Is
it
so?
Yes,
there's
a
group
of
households
out
there
that
are
struggling,
but
it's
nowhere
near
the
massive
numbers
that
we've
turned
it
into
to
me.
It's
it's
an
amazing
situation,
how
we
can
just
create
crises
out
of
thin
air
that
don't
actually
exist.
C
This
is
not
a
problem,
at
least
not
of
yet,
and
you
know
the
thing
was
this:
we
heard
a
lot
of
horror
stories
over
the
last
few
years
we
keep
hearing
about
all
these
households
living
hand-to-mouth
starving
on
their
feet
being
drowned
in
debt.
We
keep
healing
terms
like.
Oh
people
are
on
the
edge
of
of
a
financial
cliff
they're
about
to
fall
off
a
cliff,
no
they're,
not
again
just
gross
exaggerations.
C
You
know
don
frank,
went
into
place
and
it
really
cooled
off.
Consumer
borrowing,
in
some
ways
for
the
worse,
it
may
have
extended
the
recovery
a
bit,
but
in
a
lot
of
ways
it's
made
our
economy
a
lot
more
sturdy.
Take,
for
example,
the
ratio
of
debt
payments
to
family
income.
You
could
see
that
was
dramatically
lower
in
2016
than
it
was
in
2007
or
even
1998,
and
that's
true
for
households
at
every
income
level,
not
just
for
high
income,
households.
Overall
financial
obligations,
the
united
states
were
close
to
a
record
low
level.
C
Well,
that
all
sounds
good
chris,
but
you
know,
sixty
percent
of
americans
can't
even
afford
four
hundred
dollars
for
an
emergency
expense.
You
know
this
statistic
as
such
as
it
is,
came
out
of
a
federal
reserve
survey
a
few
years
ago
and
when
they
released
it,
they
said
yeah.
This
question
is
not
right.
The
results
we're
getting
here,
don't
match
any
of
our
other
data.
We
think
people
misinterpreted
it.
We
don't
believe
it
and
you
know,
but
we
it's
we're
public
officials.
We
have
to
give
you
the
data.
C
Well,
the
press
grabbed
on
to
this.
It's
become
conventional
wisdom
and
it's
neither
conventional
nor
its
wisdom
every
year.
Another
economist
goes
out
of
his
way
to
just
disembowel
this
preposterous
myth,
yet
it
keeps
popping
up
and
becoming
a
centerpiece
of
conversations
about
the
economy.
This
isn't
true.
Now
it
isn't
to
say
again
that
some
households
aren't
suffering,
but
it's
not
nowhere
near
the
degree
that
we
seem
to
think
and
what
about
the
high
cost
of
housing?
C
Yet
again,
not
a
problem,
not
the
problem.
You
think
it
is.
This
is
data
from
the
american
community
survey
through
2019,
it's
the
the
share
of
owners
and
the
share
of
renters
by
housing
costs
as
a
percent
of
their
income.
The
orange
lines
are
for
those
who
are
housing
costs
constrained.
The
purple
line
are
for
households
that
aren't
housing,
cost
constrained,
look
which
one's
going
down
and
which
one's
going
up
housing
looks
as
affordable
as
it
has
in
in
15
or
16
years
by
this
particular
metric.
C
How
much
of
your
income
you're
spending
on
it?
So
again,
we've
generated
a
lot
of
problems
that
don't
exist,
while
in
many
ways
we
pay
attention
to
the
problems
that
that
do
now.
What
about
credit?
Where
is
that
on
this?
Well
again
believe
it
or
not
for
all
the
the
the
doomsday
we
heard.
I
apologize
for
that
weird
text
in
the
middle
there,
I'm
not
sure
how
that
came
about,
but,
as
you
can
see
coming
in
the
third
quarter
of
the
year,
we're
not
seeing
any
major
debt
problems.
C
C
I
look
at
it
from,
for
example,
looking
at
it
from
a
death's
perspective,
because
it
gives
a
little
better
metric
to
compare
what
happened
earlier
in
the
year
and
yeah.
This
is
worse
than
the
first
time
around,
but
what's
interesting
about
this
and,
of
course,
is
really
across
the
united
states.
One
of
the
reasons
it's
so
bad-
it's
not
concentrated
in
a
few
coastal
cities
everywhere
is
really
suffering
right
now
and
struggling
with
this.
C
But
what's
amazing,
as
dramatic
as
these
numbers
are,
you
haven't
seen
a
consumer
response,
even
with
some
of
the
shutdowns
going
on?
This
is
consumer
spending.
This
comes.
This
is
weekly
data
that
comes
out
of
opportunity
inside
so
a
think
tank.
That's
been
around
for
a
few
years
based
out
of
harvard
they
get
some
amazing
credit
card
data
to
do
some
great
stuff
with
it,
and
you
can
see
again
that
giant
drop
off
in
the
panic
and
the
unknown,
and
it
came
up
kept
rising
right
through
the
summer
slowdown.
C
And
of
course,
you
look
across
the
united
states,
you
can
see
the
various
mixes
in
some
places
is
down
more
than
others.
If
you
looked
at
this,
some
of
this
is
going
to
depend
obviously
on
on
the
economic
circumstances.
Some
of
this
is
dependent
on
like,
for
example,
how
much
tourism
you
have,
but
a
lot
of
it
also
boils
down
to
the
kind
of
controls
that
states
have
put
into
place.
There's
been
a
lot
of
states
have
done
very
different
things.
C
You
know
working
out
of
the
southwest
here,
I'm
based
out
of
la,
but
I
do
a
lot
of
work
in
in
arizona
I
pay
attention.
I
do
a
lot
of
work
in
nevada
and
watching
the
different
governments
and
how
they
deal
with.
This
has
shown
me
that
that
we
really
need
to
have
a
little
bit
more
concise
approach
on
this
thing.
What's
interesting
here
is
is
yet
again
you
have
a
lot
of
dismal
predictions
about
an
economy
going
into
a
recession,
economy
slowing
down
again
well
coming
into
the
last
couple
weeks.
C
There's
a
group
out
of
the
atlanta
federal
reserve
that
does
something
called
the
gdp
now
estimate
it's
an
estimate
of
growth
in
the
current
quarter,
based
on
actual
data.
Now
I
ten
I'll
tell
you
that
they
tend
to
be
a
little
bit
high
biased,
but
as
of
the
last
couple
weeks,
they're
talking
about
something
on
the
order
of
eleven
percent
quarter,
compare
that
to
the
blue
chip
consensus,
which
is
well
below
four,
the
blue
chip.
Folks,
these
are
the
guys
who
told
us
how
grim
this
was
going
to
be.
D
C
Now
part
of
the
issue
here
I
can
tell
you,
is
while
it
is
true,
much
of
the
economy
is
coming
back.
They
will
tell
you
folks,
will
tell
you
that
some
parts
of
the
economy
simply
can't
come
back
until
we
get
full
control
over
this
and,
of
course,
those
sectors.
We
all
understand.
It's
it's
people
traveling,
particularly
for
tourism,
entertainment,
recreation,
disneyland,
is
still
closed.
Disney
world's
running
at,
I
think,
a
30
capacity.
C
Obviously
restaurants
aren't
able
to
operate
normally.
These
sectors,
of
course,
continue
to
lag
behind,
and
that
is
of
course,
if
you
will
so
a
big
hunk
of
that
last
three
and
a
half
percent
to
get
back
to
normal,
but
again,
vaccines
are
in
place
and,
and
we
have
the
pfizer
modern
and
they've
both
been
been
accepted.
Now,
according
to
china
and
russia,
they
also
have
vaccines
that
are
effective.
I,
I
probably
am
going
to
wait
for
the
modern
one
to
roll
around
as
opposed
to
taking
a
russian
one
I'll.
C
Let
every
make
their
own
choice,
but
you
know
johnson
johnson
has
actually
has
one
coming
out
too,
and
they
asked
for
zenica
one
they're
still
working
on
it,
so
we
have
lots
of
options
here.
Honestly,
from
my
perspective,
you
look
at
the
numbers.
We
already
have
a
couple
hundred
million
doses
coming
in
the
united
states.
C
C
What
happens
then
right
and
a
lot
of
folks
will
tell
you
well
that
may
be
good,
but
look
that
we've
taken
so
much
damage
over
the
course
of
this
year
that
we
simply
can't
recover
rapidly,
even
after
we
control
control
of
this
now
I
appreciate
the
sentiment
there.
You
look
at,
for
example,
the
employment
numbers,
and
they
look
pretty
scary.
In
fact,
most
of
the
folks
who
want
to
tell
you
how
bad
things
are
they
focus
on
those
job
numbers
because
again
you've.
C
Never
seen
anything
quite
like
it
right
in
short
order:
23
million
jobs
or
22
million
jobs
were
lost
in
the
united
states
now
mind
you
we've
added
over
half
those
back,
which
has
never
happened
this
quickly
before
you
could
tell
this
is
not
like
past
business
cycles,
it
simply
isn't
and
the
reason
I
believe
that
so
many
of
these
groups
continue
to
get
this.
So
wrong
has
a
lot
to
do
with
the
fact
that
they're
not
acknowledging
that
that
the
business
cycles
of
the
past
are
simply
not
applicable
to
right
now.
C
The
way
to
think
about
this
is
open
forecasters.
When
we
do
our
jobs,
we
sit
down
and
run
big
complex,
var
models,
but
more
or
less.
The
only
thing
that
vr
model
is
doing
is
taking
correlations
from
past
business
cycles
and
applying
it
to
this
one.
In
past
business
cycles,
when
unemployment
went
up
goes
up,
it
takes
a
long
time
to
come
down
and
that's
why
everybody
got
so
freaked
out
unemployment
hit
14.6.
C
Now,
if
this
was
a
normal
business
cycle,
that's
going
to
remain
in
double
digits
at
least
a
year.
Not
this
time.
Unemployment
in
the
u.s
is
already
down
to
about
6.6
percent
6.7
percent,
and
that's
because
the
vast
majority
of
people,
the
beginning
of
this,
who
quote
unquote,
lost
their
jobs,
didn't
lose
their
jobs.
They
were
on
temporary
layoff.
C
What
does
it
say?
Well,
the
truly
long
run
unemployed
people
who
don't
have
job
options
in
front
of
them.
That's
running
about
five
percent
right
now,
that's
less
than
the
very
mild
tech
recession
we
saw
so
what
you're?
Seeing,
of
course,
is
in
this
enormous
transitive
shock
in
the
u.s,
creating
what
you
would
call
a
mild
recession.
C
C
Take,
for
example,
the
job
openings
rate
it
took
years
after
the
great
recession,
with
the
job
openings
rate
to
get
back
to
where
it
was
before
the
great
recession.
This
time
around
we're
almost
back
to
where
we
were
just
a
few
short
months
later,
and
while
it
is
true
that
the
labor
market
has
taken
a
huge
hit
in
terms
of
the
number
of
jobs,
interestingly
enough,
it
is
not
taking
the
same
hit
in
terms
of
earnings
now.
C
The
income
hit
wasn't
anywhere
near
as
large,
and
that's
because
a
huge
proportion
of
these
jobs
that
have
been
lost
are
actually
relatively
low.
Skilled,
low
pay
jobs,
it
isn't
to
diminish
the
pain
those
households
are
suffering.
My
point
would
be
that
most
of
our
effort
right
now
should
not
be
about
worrying
about
the
broader
macro
economy.
That's
just
fine!
We
have
to
worry
about
the
social
crisis
that
is
wrapped
around
those
people
who
have
lost
income.
C
That's
what
shows
you
important
right
now
and
of
course,
this
gets
into
the
whole
argument
about
k-shapes
recoveries
yeah,
I
get
it
low-skilled.
Folks
are
having
a
tougher
time
through
this
guess.
What
low-skilled
workers
have
a
tough
time
through
every
business
cycle.
It
isn't
that
unusual.
This
is
kind
of
a
similar
sort
of
situation.
C
Now
you
know
you
know
I'm
going
to
come
back
to
this.
Let
me
get
going
a
little
bit
further
I'll
I'll,
come
back
to
that.
One
of
the
big
things
here
to
think
about
those
as
we
continue
to
move
ahead
is
okay.
That
sounds
good,
but
you
know
you
got
all
those
temporary
unemployed
people.
You
got
all
these
shut
down.
Small
businesses.
Isn't
this
going
to
come
back
to
haunt
us?
Well,
yet
again,
you
got
to
look
at
both
sides
of
the
coin.
This
is
again
opportunity.
C
Insights
data
state
by
state
tells
us
the
change
in
small
business
openings
from
january
to
november,
and
you
can
see
how
grim
some
of
this
data
is.
However,
you
know
small
business
is
always
a
place
where
you
see
a
tremendous
amount
of
churn.
There's,
always
businesses
popping
up
and
disappearing
popping
up
and
disappearing.
C
If
you
want
to
talk
about
small
business
closures,
those
small
businesses
that
are
not
going
to
ever
reopen,
we
also
have
to
talk
about
the
other
side
of
the
coin,
which
is
what's
going
to
happen
in
terms
of
new
business
openings.
Well,
believe
it
or
not,
the
census
actually
collects
interesting
data
on
some
business
applications.
C
C
Yes,
a
phenomenal
number
of
small
businesses
closed
and
an
enormous
number
of
new
business
applications
like
business
applications
over
the
course
of
the
last
few
months
have
never
been
anywhere
close
to
this
high
you're
talking
about
an
80
jump
from
where
from
this
time
last
year,
and
by
the
way,
where
is
this
occurring?
Well
again,
you
can
see
the
entrepreneurialism
right.
C
You
can
see
people
working
ahead,
get
working
their
way
through
things,
retail
trade
mainly
online,
that's
top
of
the
list,
other
services,
that's
barber
shops
and
nail
salons,
and
things
like
that
logistics,
even
hospitality,
which
includes
restaurants,
is
seeing
an
enormous
surge
so
yeah.
There
are
a
lot
of
restaurants
that
aren't
going
to
reopen,
and
the
people
who
owned
those
restaurants
are
in
the
process
of
running
of
starting
a
new
one
is
you've,
got
a
huge
amount
of
turnover
where
we
end
up
yet
again
remains
to
be
seen,
but
it
isn't
as
simple
as
wow.
C
These
millions
of
businesses
are
never
going
to
reopen
now.
Will
they
have
someone
to
sell
to
right?
This
gets
back
to
that
argument
about
income
versus
jobs.
Well,
take
a
look
at
the
right-hand
side.
Remember
that
huge
drop-off
in
economic
activity.
Well,
on
the
right-hand
side,
this
is
disposable
income
and
then
personal
outlays.
The
gap
between
those
by
the
way
is
household
savings
as
much
as
the
economy
took
a
big
dip
incomes,
disposable
incomes,
surged.
C
We
had
a
very
strange
downturn
in
as
much
as
incomes
went
up,
even
as
we
were
losing
all
those
jobs.
How
could
this
be
well,
of
course,
has
everything
to
do
with
the
stimulus
plan.
You
know
the
stimulus
plan.
I
look,
I'm
glad
congress
got
involved,
I'm
glad
they
put
some
money
into
it.
Some
of
the
things
they
did
was
really
were
really
bright.
Expanding
unemployment
benefits
all
for
that,
obviously
supporting
local
governments,
giving
some
help
to,
of
course,
a
public
transport
and
airports.
C
This
all
made
sense
to
me,
but
then
most
of
the
money
went
to
things
that
made
no
sense
whatsoever,
for
example,
giving
every
human
being
in
the
united,
not
every
human
being,
but
most
human
beings,
the
united
states,
twelve
hundred
dollars
and,
of
course,
a
ppp
system
which
basically
didn't
give
money
to
hard
hit
businesses.
It
gave
money
to
businesses
who
were
first
in
line
at
their
accountants.
C
C
We
are
pushing
on
a
string
you're
not
actually
doing
anything
on
the
right
hand,
side
look
how
personal
outlays
drop
because
of
the
virus
incomes
went
up,
outlays
went
down,
people
couldn't
spend
the
money
they
were
being
given
them.
Where
did
it
go
well
right
into
savings?
You
can
see
what
happened
here
in
the
left-hand
side.
Look
at
the
enormous
amount
of
government
transfers
moving
in
into
the
household
sector
for
every
dollar
of
lost
income.
C
There
was
over
two
dollars
of
government
benefits
being
put
back
in
two
to
one
and
what
that
means
is
we
have.
We
have
1.3
to
1.4
trillion
dollars
of
excess
savings.
I
mean
savings
on
top
of
the
1
trillion
that
people
typically
save
per
year,
1.4
trillion
dollars
in
excess
money.
Where
is
all
this
sitting
in
the
bank
accounts
right
bank
accounts
right
now.
Banks
are
sitting
on
top
of
about
2.5
trillion
dollars
of
excess
deposits.
There's
this
phenomenal
amount
of
cash
sitting
out
there.
C
This
is
not
how
the
great
recession
worked
in
the
great
recession.
There
was
a
collapse
in
wealth
this
time
because
of
massive
government
stimulus
because
of
all
the
savings
that
went
on,
because
home
prices
are
going
up,
there's
an
increase
in
wealth,
not
a
decrease,
and
of
course
you
know
you
look
at
the
stock
market.
Why
is
the
stock
market
so
frothy?
Well,
people
got
nothing
else
to
do
with
their
money.
Why
is
the
housing
market
so
fraud?
C
People
have
nothing
else
to
do
with
their
money,
they're
investing
it
because
they
can't
spend
it
and
when
you
think,
about
who's
behind
who's
ahead,
yet
again,
going
back
to
opportunity
insight.
This
is
some
of
that
spending
data
broken
down
by
income,
believe
it
or
not.
As
of
the
first
week
of
december,
low-income
households
on
average
are
spending
more
than
they
did
pre-pandemic
on
average
winners
and
losers.
C
They
just
can't
spend
it
now,
trust
me
they
will
when
this
thing
finally
goes
away.
So
in
other
words,
you
got
four
months
to
get
this
thing
under
control
to
get
the
vaccine
rolled
out
to
get
people
inoculated.
And
then
all
this
money
comes
out
and
it
accelerates
the
economy
right
through
the
recovery.
C
You
know
listen
by
our
estimate
by
our
forecast,
we're
going
to
hit
pre-pandemic
levels
of
economic
activity
by
the
second
or
third
quarter
of
next
year
and
we're
going
to
be
back
to
normality
by
the
first
or
second
quarter
of
2022
vastly
faster.
Remember
what
the
cbo
said.
They
were
talking
about
not
getting
back
to
normal
until
2027.,
that's
off
by
five
years.
It's
off
by
a
lifetime
from
an
economic
cycle
perspective
completely
wrong
completely
wrong,
and
you
know
another
way
of
thinking
about
it.
This
is
you
know
we
did
a
forecast.
C
C
Look
how
quickly
it's
already
bouncing
back
again
when
the
great
recession
broke,
las
vegas,
it
took
them
close
to
a
decade
to
get
back
to
pre-pandemic
levels
of
tax
receipts
they're
halfway
back
as
of
q3,
and
again
think
of
all
that
money
out
there.
What
I
said
to
them
was:
don't
worry
about
about
your
revenues.
Coming
back,
they're,
going
to
come
back.
What
you
need
to
be
cognizant
of
is
in
land
of
2021
early
2022.
C
C
It's
not
free
money.
Our
children
and
grandchildren
are
going
to
have
to
pay
this
back,
we're
going
to
borrow
sorry
in
the
last
fiscal
year
for
the
federal
government.
We
borrowed
three
trillion
this
year,
even
without
a
second
stimulus
plan,
you're
looking
at
two
trillion
five
trillion
dollars
in
borrowing
in
two
years,
we've
never
seen
anything
like
it.
If
you
have
another
stimulus
thrown
in
add
another
trillion.
On
top
of
that
6
trillion.
C
This
is
not
good
news
and
we
should
not
be
just
willy-nilly
borrowing
as
much
as
we
possibly
can
at
the
federal
level.
This
has
consequences
and
the
same
thing
for
the
federal
reserve.
The
federal
reserve
is
acting
like
this
is
2008.
Where
there's
a
collapse
in
household
wealth.
There's
a
collapse,
there's
a
massive
problem
in
the
financial
system.
You
have
deflationary
pressures
and
they're
quantitative,
easing
like
crazy.
C
Now,
at
the
beginning
of
this
thing,
I
like
what
they
did,
they
stabilized
the
panic
in
the
financial
markets,
so
they
didn't
create
a
crisis
out
of
nothing,
but
they
have
continued
to
act
as
if
we
are
in
the
midst
of
a
great
recession
when
clearly
the
data
suggests
we
are
not
it's
not
just
them
by
the
way.
It's
also,
of
course,
the
bank
of
england.
It's
it's
the
european
central
bank,
that's
doing
it,
but
nobody's
doing
it
quite
like
right
now,
the
united
states,
and
where
is
that
money
going
well
again?
C
Think
of
all
that
fiscal
stimulus
went
right
into
the
checking
checking
accounts
right
this
time,
iran's
going
right
into
the
money
supply.
Take
a
look
at
money
supply
growth.
Over
the
last
year,
23
increase
in
m2
in
the
70s
in
the
high
inflation
70s
m2
was
growing.
Oh
it
up
13
14
15,
and
it
got
us
into
inflation
troubles
now.
C
This
is
not
the
economy
of
1974
and
it
isn't
clear
that
this
is
going
to
turn
into
massive
inflation,
but
it
is
inflationary
at
some
level,
and
we
will
start
to
see
that
in
the
next
couple
years.
So
think
about
it,
what
are
the
big
issues
coming
out
of
this
well
you're,
going
to
have
obviously
massive
amount
of
federal
borrowing
running
up
against
the
fact
that
people
are
going
to
start
spending
money
again.
That
suggests
save
less.
That
suggests
higher
interest
rates,
throw
a
little
inflation
and
a
little
inflation
risk.
C
C
These
things
have
consequences,
they
have
costs,
yet
we
don't
seem
to
have
any
conversation
about
that
at
all.
So
I
am
a
little
worried,
I'm
worried
about
where
inflation
interest
rates
are
going,
but
that's
a
couple
years
from
now,
at
least
in
the
next
year
and
a
half
you
know
the
economy
has
got
to
be
hot
hot
hot.
What
about
the
long
run?
What
about
the
new
normal
epidemics
have
been
with
humanity
since
the
dawn
of
civilization?
C
There
is
no
new
normal.
You
know
shakespeare
famously
wrote,
king
lear,
while
he
was
hiding
up
in
his
house
in
london,
dodging
the
plague
that
was
ripping
through
london
at
that
point
in
time.
What
happened
when
the
plague
left
london,
he
reopened
the
globe.
Theater
he
rolled
out
his
new
play
and
people
loved
it.
C
People
don't
disappear,
they
don't
live
in
caves,
they
just
don't
and
whether
you're
talking
about
a
diseases
or
terrorism,
you
just
don't
see
permanent
changes
in
people's
behavior.
Now
I
get
some
segments
to
go
to
label
lag
older
consumers.
Global
tourism
is
going
to
lag
a
bit,
but
the
rest
of
the
economy
is
going
to
make
up
for
that.
For
me,
the
real
long
run
conversations
are
about
the.
If
you
will
acceleration
of
underlying
trends.
For
example,
we
have
a
real
problem
with
retail
in
the
united
states.
We
have
vastly
too
much
of
it.
C
If
you
look
at
retail
square
footage
per
person
here
compared
to
europe
or
asia,
we
have
way
more
retail
space.
We
do
not
need
it
it's
time
for
land
use
conversations.
What
do
we
do
and
this
is
being
accelerated,
because
a
huge
amount
of
sales
have
gone
online
through
this
pandemic
they're
not
going
away
they're
staying
online
and,
of
course,
office
zoom,
the
idea
of
working
from
home,
yeah
yeah.
C
I
I've
been
more
than
pleasantly
surprised
how
well
my
company
has
performed
how
productive
my
folks
have
been
through
these
tough
times
being
at
home
and
working
from
home
now.
Does
that
mean
that
office
space
is
going
to
become?
If
you
will
of
some
legend
of
the
past
everybody's,
going
to
work
out
of
their
house?
No,
no!
No!
No!
That's
the
gross
exaggeration,
because
as
much
as
people
can
be
productive
from
home
look,
you
still
need
an
office
for
sales.
C
You
need
it
for
collaboration,
you
need
it
for
training,
you
need
it
for
team
building.
The
reality
is,
is
you
still
need
people
in
the
room?
Sometimes
it's
as
simple
as
that
and
then
there's
another
side
of
it.
I
love
this
survey.
This
survey
came
out
not
too
long
ago.
They
asked
a
bunch
of
people
how
many
days
a
week.
Would
you
like
to
work
from
home
about
a
quarter
said
all
the
time,
but
only
a
quarter?
75
said
no.
No.
C
I
don't
want
to
do
that,
and
I
think
that
applies
to
my
folks
as
well
as
you
can
see.
Interestingly
enough,
a
quarter
of
them
also
said
I'd
rather
not
work
from
home.
Almost
assuredly
this
graph
can
be
correlated
with
the
number
of
children.
You
have
almost
positively
it's
based
on
the
number
of
children.
So
it's
not
that
simple.
So
look
the
long
run
still
matters.
That's
the
important
thing
here
to
keep
in
mind.
This
is
a
tragedy
from
a
social
perspective.
C
C
We're
gonna
see
about
a
six
percent,
q4
you're,
going
to
be
well
over
four
percent
growth.
Most
of
the
next
year
has
already
noted
back
to
trend
by
the
first
half
of
2022
unemployment.
You
know
what
I've
been
keeping
this
unemployment
close
to
six
percent
by
year
end.
I
put
that
line
in
this
graph.
In
april
I
swear
to
god
I
did
and
we're
almost
there
6.7
little
impact
on
long
run,
real
estate
values,
obviously
retail
restaurants,
tourism
lag
for
me.
C
The
problem
here
is
not,
of
course,
the
pandemic
in
the
specific,
but
our
response
to
the
pandemic.
You
know
in
the
last
five
six
seven
years,
I've
described
the
national
mood
as
one
of
miserableism
miserablism
is
a
philosophy
of
pessimism.
It's
it's
desperately
going
out
of
your
way
to
tell
everybody
how
terrible
everything
is,
no
matter
how
good
it
actually
is.
C
C
Think
of
it
this
time,
we've
convinced
ourselves
that
the
pandemic
was
an
existential
depression-causing
threat
to
the
us
economy,
when
that
was
a
preposterous
way
to
look
at
things,
and
as
a
result
of
that,
we
have
too
much
fiscal,
too
much
monetary
stimulus
that
could
lead
to
bigger
problems.
Coming
down
the
pike,
we
need
to
take
a
step
back.
We
need
to
start
having
candid
conversations
based
on
data
based
on
analysis
and
understand
that
the
truth
is
not
typically
not
as
bad
as
we
try
to
make
it
out
to
be.
C
We
have
to
understand
that
that
this.
This
is
the
biggest
issue
of
all.
Let's
get
back
to
focusing
on
data
on
the
real
issues,
and
you
know
what
we're
going
to
make
better
decisions
and
we're
going
to
continue
to
keep
this
economy
rolling
forward,
continuing
to
provide
one
of
the
best
standard
of
living
in
the
entire
globe
right
here
to
american
citizens.
B
Okay,
so
I
know
that
we
have
well
first
thank
you
and
I
had
to
laugh
because
we
did
have
mark
zandy
speak
at
our
summer
meeting
and
yes,
his
outlook
was
a
little
more
sobering,
but
but
I
know
that
we
do
have
a
question
from
senator
castro
so
and
also
one
from
representative
maca,
but
we'll
start
with
senator
castro.
So
go
ahead
and
unmute
yourself,
and
so
I
have
some
questions.
One,
I'm
a
little
bothered
by
your
presentation.
It
seems
very
biased.
I
mean
you
talked
about
low
income.
D
E
F
B
B
F
C
C
C
Okay,
thank
you.
First
of
all,
that
is
utterly
completely
a
total
misrepresentation
of
what
I
said
period.
What
I
said
very
clearly
is
we
have
to
pay
attention
to
those
households
are
suffering.
I
absolutely
made
that
clear.
I
absolutely
am
for
an
expansion
of
the
unemployment
benefits
program.
That's
the
one
thing
congress
should
be
doing
right
now
to
help
those
suffering
families.
C
That
is
not
an
economic
issue
which
is
going
to
slow
this
recovery
down.
It's
a
social
crisis
which
is
incredibly
important
and
needs
to
be
dealt
with
with
social
tools.
That's
what
I
was
saying
so,
for
example,
as
opposed
to
having
a
blanket
moratorium
on
all
evictions.
What
we
need
to
be
doing
is
paying
attention
to
distressed
households
and
helping
those
folks
who
are
truly
falling
behind,
which
is
a
substantially
smaller
share
of
the
population
than
what
those
headlines
would
have.
C
You
believe
now
the
data
I
presented
on
the
share
of
households
not
able
to
pay
their
rent
comes
from
the
national
multi-family
housing
council.
It's
the
biggest
and
best
data
set
available
that
has
the
aggregate
of
housing
units
in
it.
Now
again,
yes,
that
number
is
lower.
A
couple
percent
of
renters
are
having
a
tough
time.
We
need
to
focus
on
policies
that
help
those
folks.
It
even
goes
back
to
my
conversations
about
the
fiscal
stimulus,
I'm
all
for
helping
workers
who
are
out
of
work.
C
The
good
news
here
is
that,
with
all
that
dry
powder,
what's
going
to
happen
is
the
economy
is
going
to
surge
forward
and
a
lot
of
those
folks
who've
been
displaced,
who
are
having
a
tough
time,
will
have
an
opportunity
to
get
back
to
work
rapidly.
But
in
the
meantime,
absolutely
we
have
to
focus
ourselves
on
those
stop-gap
measures
to
keep
those
households
intact.
Absolutely.
G
C
Senator
I'm
sorry
senator
my
apologies.
That's
incorrect
to
me
senator
my
my
I
wasn't
poo
pooing
it.
I
was
poo
pooing
the
money
to
went
to
households
that
weren't
suffering
and
again,
when
you
think
about
the
bulk
of
money,
particularly
in
those
ppp
loans
that
went
to
businesses
that
weren't
suffering
any
substantial
hit
to
the
revenue
stream,
that
why
did
they
get
the
ppp
loan
because
they
were
the
first
person
to
call
their
banker
an
accountant?
C
No,
we
should
be
focusing
on
the
businesses
who
are
truly
suffering
losses
of
revenues.
It's
about
tailoring
policies
to
hit
the
point,
the
pain
points
and,
and
the
rest
most
of
that
money
has
already
showed
didn't
help
anybody.
It
went
straight
into
the
banking
system
and
I
think
you
and
I
can
agree
that-
that's
not
where
the
money
needed
to
be.
B
B
C
C
It
was
a
connection
issue
rather
than
the
banks
being
biased
against
those
folks
and,
of
course,
by
the
time
they
got
the
help
they
needed
from
the
sba
and
local
firms.
Much
of
that
money
had
already
been
given
away
to
again
those
folks
who
had
a
bank
or
an
accountant
on
the
speed
dial.
I
don't
think
we're
on
opposite
side
of
things
and
I'm
sorry,
you
misinterpreted
my
comments
here,
but
honestly,
I
I
don't
think
we're
that
far
apart.
In
terms
of
our
view
on
things.
B
B
H
Need
to
go,
go
otherwise,
we'll
just
keep
going
for
the
next
year.
So
I
absolutely
respect
senator
castro,
but
I
tell
you
what
there's
an
interesting
dichotomy
right
there.
She
is
just
south
of
us
in
illinois
and
we
are
up
here
in
wisconsin
that
is
like
180
degree
difference
in
the
in
the
in
what
is
going
on
in
each
of
those
states.
If
you
ever
wanted
to
take
a
look
at
what
sound
fiscal
policy
looks
like
versus.
H
Not
I'm
sorry
christine,
that's
the
reality,
and
so
I
absolutely
agree
with
you
when
I
look
at
and
I'll
give
you
I'll
give
you
several
examples,
and
christine
knows
this.
I
did
this
and
I
I
chair
the
budget
and
revenue
and
salt
task
force
committee,
and
we
had
the
same
conversation
last
week
and
I'm
going
to
tell
you
that
the
various
companies
that
I
I
don't
I'm
not
part
of
them
anymore,
but
that
my
brothers
and
my
sons
now
all
run
got
four
million
dollars
worth
of
ppp
money.
H
Now
we
didn't
know
at
the
time
if
we
were
going
to
need
it
or
not.
So
we
had
to
put
contingency
place
things
in
place,
but
guess
what?
Because
of
the
dynamics
of
of
the
organization
that
we
ran?
We
came
from
nothing
too
by
the
way.
So
anybody
that
says,
gee
whiz,
you
don't
understand
you
crazy.
One
percenter
needs
to
go
back
into
my
history
and
find
out
where
we
came
from.
We
had
eight
people
live
in
a
little
little
one
bathroom
house
and
we're
drinking
powdered
milk.
H
H
The
marketplace
is
telling
organizations
if
you've
gotten
all
of
this
help
over
the
next
eight
or
nine
months,
you're-
probably
not
going
to
make
it
and
us
subsidizing
that
is
catamount
to
subsidizing
the
buggy
whip
industry,
and
I
would
tell
you
that
we
sure,
as
hell,
don't
need
any
more
ppp
money.
We
didn't
use
the
ones
we
got,
and
so
that's
the
challenge
we
have
as
legislators
is
to.
Where
do
we
go
with
that,
and
I
would
submit
to
you
chris
and
thank
you
very
much.
H
This
has
been
very,
very
exciting
and
stuff
that
we've
been
having
conversation
on
around.
Here
we
had
a
special
hearing
as
chair
of
the
ways
and
means
committee.
We
had
one
of
these
types
of
informative
hearings
just
the
other
day,
to
inform
our
whole
team
that
wisconsin
is
going
to
show
about
a
1.1
billion
dollar
cash
balance
and
800
million
dollars
in
the
rainy
day
fund.
H
We're
gonna
have
almost
two
billion
dollars
in
excess
cash
on
on
our
end
of
our
fiscal
year
in
june,
in
spite
of
all
of
this
stuff,
and
why
that
didn't
happen
by
accident
that
was
astute
planning
and
and
and
and
decision
making
that
got
us
to
there.
So
do
we
have
to
help,
but
I
think
you're,
absolutely
right.
We
have
to
have
a
conversation
on
on
targeted
transitional
help,
so
we
have
industries
that
are
as
we
look
at
our
revenue
sources
in
in
states.
H
H
H
And
so
my
question
to
you,
chris
is
there's
really
two
things
and
you
nailed
on
the
macro
economics
of
the
aging
population,
and
what
does
that
mean
for
us
in
revenue
sources
if
we're
going
to
have
24
of
our
population
is
going
to
be
in
their
mid
80s
in
the
next
10
or
15
years?
What
does
that
mean
to
property,
tax
revenue,
sales,
tax
revenue,
income,
tax
revenue,
those
types
of
issues,
and
then?
Secondly,
as
this
paradigm
has
shifted
very
much
like?
H
And
you
remember
when
we
deregulated
the
trucking
industry
and
brought
on
just
in
time
delivery
system,
it
seemed
very
nebulous
at
the
time,
but
it
completely
decimated
the
three-tier
distribution
system
in
the
warehousing
process
that
we
had
in
this
country
and
had
we
just
continued
to
try
and
subsidize
those
warehouses,
we
would
have
been
literally
subsidizing
the
buggy
whip
industry.
So,
as
we
look
at
those
things,
my
question
to
you
is:
what
are
the
industries?
It's
the
it's
the
gretzky
conversation.
H
I
know
where
the
puck
is,
but
I
want
to
know
where
the
puck
is
going.
So
when
we
sit
and
look
at
that
decentralization,
is
it
putting
5g
technology
up
in
the
middle
of
up
north
somewhere?
I
mean
what
is
that
forward-looking
conversation
that
we
as
legislators
ought
to
be
subsidizing
rather
than
brick
and
mortar
and
some
other
things.
C
We
had
an
incredibly
low
unemployment
rate
for
the
two
years
before
the
pandemic,
we
had
more
job
openings
in
the
u.s
than
we
had
people
looking
for
work.
There
were
plentiful
opportunities
out
there.
In
fact,
some
of
the
biggest
pay
increases
we
saw
in
the
united
states
were
for
lower
skilled
folks
who
finally
were
getting
opportunities
for
that.
That
kind
of
training
and
career
pathways-
and
you
know
candidly
with
a
relatively
rapid
recovery-
that's
not
we're
anticipating,
I
think,
we'll
be
back
to
that
situation.
C
Relatively
quick
and
and
folks
at
the
bottom
end
will
have
opportunities
they
didn't
have
before
now,
with
what
you
were
saying
in
in
terms
of
thinking
towards
the
future.
Look
we're
moving
in
that
direction.
Some
of
the
big
issues,
like
the
d
retailing,
obviously
is
being,
is
being
accelerated
by
this
yeah.
We
got
to
be
a
little
smarter
about
land
use
policies,
there's
no
doubt
about
it
and,
of
course,
when
you're
thinking
about
really
the
areas
of
of
tomorrow,
I'll
give
a
little
kudo
to
you.
C
I
I
had
an
opportunity
of
spending
some
time
in
milwaukee
about
a
year
and
a
half
ago
and
absolutely
blown
away
by
the
the
urban
renewal
that's
going
on
in
that
and
that
waterfront
and
how
it's
going
to
attract
a
whole
new
crew
of
young
folks.
You
know
to
your
point
when
you're
thinking
about
the
long
run,
the
key
is
having
a
young
skilled
workforce
and
that's
going
to
be
driven
by
quality
of
life.
C
Conversations
a
lot
of
that's
about
urban
investment
making
city
I
mean
look
what
look
what
the
the
waltons
are
doing
in
northern
arkansas,
where
they're
putting
in
biking
trails
everywhere,
and
if
you
move
up
into
the
area
they
give
you
a
free,
beautiful
bike
to
enjoy.
The
trails
with
these
are
the
kind
of
things
that
that
that
air
regions
are
doing
to
kind
of
attract.
C
If
you
will
that
next
generation
of
workers
who
are
looking
for
a
different
kind
of
lifestyle
than
maybe
their
parents
or
grandparents
had
so,
I
think,
there's
a
lot
of
exciting
opportunities
and
things
to
be
thinking
about
out
there
and-
and
the
thing
I
guess
I
want
to
go
back
to-
which
is
the
point
I've
been
trying
to
make
through
this
whole
thing
is
that
this
is
a
reasonably
quick
business
cycle
relative
to
what
we
saw
the
last
time
around.
We
have
to
keep
an
eye
on
that
long-run
game.
C
B
Okay,
thank
you,
representative
hatch.
Are
you
still
yeah?
Just
briefly,
I
I
didn't
see
where
he
hit
up
upon
our
educational
institutions
and
the
impact
that
it's
had
on
them
in
the
long
term
impact,
because
that's
a
in
my
mind,
that's
a
center
point
in
driving
the
economy.
We
live
in
a
bifurcated
state,
new
hampshire
in
the
north
part.
Where
I
live,
it's
not
really,
there's
almost
no
hope,
but
nevertheless,
where
do
you
see
that
going
because
I'm
really
concerned
about
the
long
term
impact
of
this
on
that.
C
Yeah,
well,
I
I
would
tell
you
I
would
put
teachers
on
on
the
front
of
the
list
of
getting
the
vaccine
to
get
him
back
into
school,
with
kids
as
fast
as
possible,
like
I
think
that
college
kids
probably
did
okay
through
this,
they
didn't
get
the
education
they
wanted,
but
you're.
I
couldn't
agree
more
when
you
think.
C
C
It
it
will
remain
to
be
seen
right.
I
I
I
hear
you
been.
I've
been
really
shaken
up
out
there.
I,
but
again
some
of
my
experiences,
but
I
know
a
lot
of
college
students
who
don't
like
what's
going
on,
but
yet
again,
they're
learning
how
to
deal
with
it
and
again,
once
we
get
this
virus
behind
us,
hopefully
we'll
get
people
back
on
campus
and
be
moving
forward
again.
C
B
B
E
E
E
B
Okay,
so
my
clock
shows
12,
15
and
just
in
the
interest
of
time,
let's
go
ahead
and
move
on
to
our
next
session
on
state
budget.
Drivers,
like
I
said
before,
we've
made
these
short
segments
to
sort
of
help
battle
the
zoom
fatigue
and
keep
everyone
engaged.
So
all
of
our
speakers
are
topic
experts
at
ncsl
and
they're
going
to
give
a
short
presentation
and
then
we'll
take
questions
within
that
segment
before
we
move
on
to
the
next
topic.
B
F
F
F
I
missed
thank
you
all
right.
Let's
try
that
again,
hello!
Everyone
happy
to
be
here
with
you
all.
Today,
I've
been
with
ncsl
for
two
years
now
and
prior
to
joining
ncsl.
I
spent
12
years
in
colorado's
medicaid
agency,
with
a
good
chunk
of
time
in
the
medicaid
budget
office,
so
always
excited
to
be
here
with
fiscal
leaders
to
talk
about
medicaid
and
state
budgets.
F
So,
as
you
all
know,
medicaid
accounts
for
such
a
large
portion
of
state
spending
and
is
the
largest
source
of
federal
funds
for
states.
So
normally,
when
presenting
to
this
group,
I
would
go
over
the
usual
policy
levers
that
legislators
can
use
to
control,
medicaid
spending,
improve
outcomes
and
increase
deficiencies
in
the
program.
But
you
know
in
this
time
of
pandemic
and
economic
downturn.
F
I
think
conversations
just
a
little
bit
different,
so
today,
I'll
be
talking
or
highlighting
how
states
are
leveraging
their
medicaid
programs
to
respond
to
this
pandemic,
while
facing
declining
revenues
in
their
states.
We'll
talk
about
some
of
the
federal
actions
to
try
and
help,
as
well
as
some
examples
of
what
states
are
doing
to
manage
their
budgets.
F
F
Now
the
f
map,
it
varies
by
state
with
a
minimum
of
50
percent
and
is
largely
based
on
state
per
capita
income.
So
the
family's
first
act.
It
provides
an
enhanced
fmap
rate
by
adding
6.2
percentage
points
to
a
state's
regular
fmap
rate.
Now
this
enhanced
smap
rate
is
to
remain
in
place
for
the
duration
of
the
public
health
emergency
and
is
currently
scheduled
to
end
in
march
of
2021..
F
So
this
enhanced
fmap
rate
did
come
with
some
strings
attached.
So
for
those
of
you
who
remember
the
great
recession
and
the
american
reinvestment
and
recovery
act
or
aura,
some
of
the
requirements
may
feel
familiar
so
in
order
to
receive
enhanced
smap
states
cannot
change
eligibility
requirements
of
their
programs
to
make
them
more
restrictive.
F
F
Now
there
was
some
worry
that
the
enhanced
map
would
not
fully
cover
this
continuous
enrollment
requirement
and
that
states
might
actually
have
to
find
some
additional
state
funding
to
to
cover
that
increase
in
their
their
enrollment,
but
it
looks
like
maybe
that
was
not
the
case.
However,
there's
still
a
lot
of
uncertainty
and
unknowns.
So
it's
hard
to
say
for
sure,
and
I
would
be
interested
to
hear
from
any
of
you
all
that
may
be
tracking.
F
This
particular
cost
more
closely
what
you
might
be
seeing
in
your
state
now,
prior
to
the
pandemic,
nationally
medicaid
enrollment
had
actually
been
declining
a
little
bit,
but
now,
with
this
continuous
enrollment
requirement,
as
well
as
the
record
unemployment,
we
expect
that
declining
trend
to
reverse
and
anticipate
we'll
still
see
enrollment
growth
into
2021,
perhaps
2022
as
well,
the
kaiser
family
foundation.
They
conducted
a
survey
this
summer
of
medicaid
agencies
and
out
of
the
38
agencies
that
responded
nearly
all
of
them
indicated.
F
They
anticipate
enrollment
growth
to
continue
in
2021
and
might
even
increase
the
amount
that
we're
seeing
compared
to
what
we've
already
seen
this
year.
So
what
kinds
of
things
are
states
doing
to
try
and
manage
their
budget
with
these
increasing
medicaid
enrollment
pressures
since
enrollment?
Is
such
a
large
cost
driver
in
the
program?
So
we
are
seeing
states
proposing
and
making
some
cuts
to
the
program,
but
we're.
I
F
Seeing
increases
in
some
areas
to
try
and
respond
to
the
pandemic
as
well,
so
I'm
going
to
share
some
examples
and
you
can
find
these
examples
in
a
policy
snapshot
that
will
be
dropping
into
the
chat.
So
you
can
refer
to
that
later.
If
you'd
like
now,
one
of
the
main
ways
that
states
can
reduce
medicaid
spending
is
through
provider,
reimbursement
rates
reductions,
so,
for
example,
colorado
and
nevada
have
both
implemented
across
the
board
rate
reductions
of
1
and
6
respectively.
F
I
F
Planned
initiatives
so,
for
example,
utah
eliminated
its
plans
to
provide
continuous
12
months
of
enrollment
for
children
in
medicaid,
and
another
trend
that
we've
been
seeing
in
medicaid
is
proposing
to
extend
postpartum
eligibility
to
one
full
year
for
women
to
try
and
address
mortality
or
maternal
mortality
rates
in
this
country.
But
several
states
like
tennessee,
virginia
and
washington,
have
put
their
plans
for
that
coverage.
Expansion
on
hold
due
to
budget
concerns
so
we're
also
seeing
states
make
administrative
cuts
or
freezes.
F
So
several
states,
such
as
maryland
new
mexico,
ohio,
have
implemented
hiring
freezes,
we're
also
seeing
states
implementing
furloughs
for
state
employees
and,
as
you
all
know,
pharmacy
is
also
a
major
cost
driver
in
the
medicaid
program
and
we're
seeing
several
states
implementing
strategies
to
try
and
contain
costs
in
this
area,
such
as
expanding
their
preferred
drug
lists
or
trying
to
move
towards
more
value-based
payment
arrangements,
paying
more
for
outcomes
now.
Also
often
in
times
of
economic
downturn,
optional
medicaid
benefits
get
cut
from
the
program
and
often
it's.
F
Dental
benefit,
for
example.
Now
I
don't
know
that
any
states
have
proposed
to
fully
eliminate
their
adult
dental
benefit.
Although
correct
me,
if
I'm
wrong
about
what's
going
on
in
your
state,
but
we
are
seeing
some
states
reduce
the
level
of
benefit
provided,
for
example,
but
oh
and
lastly,
cost
sharing
requirements
like
premiums
and
co-payments
they're
another
strategy
that
states
can
use
to
try
and
contain
costs.
F
But,
as
I
mentioned
with
all
these
cuts,
there
are
states
who
are
increasing
spending
in
some
areas
to
try
and
respond
to
the
pandemic.
For
example,
arkansas
is
providing
supplemental
payments
to
directly
increase
wages
for
healthcare
workers
or
we've
seen
rhode
island
who
implemented
a
temporary
across-the-board
rate
increase
of
10
for
providers.
F
B
F
F
B
B
D
Thank
you
mandy.
Can
you
hear
everyone
hear
me?
Okay,
yeah
see
the
slides
all
right.
It's
always
a
success
to
get
that
to
work
well
good
afternoon.
My
name
is
luke
martel
and
I
am
the
group
director
of
employment,
labor
and
retirement
program,
and
today
I'm
going
to
briefly
talk
about
some
of
the
state
budget
proposals
and
actions.
States
are
taking
to
address
retirement
system
shortfalls.
D
States
faced
a
range
of
fiscal
challenges
leading
up
to
the
pandemic.
Some
states
have
better
funded
public
employee
pensions
than
others
in
a
host
of
factors
from
planned,
demographics
to
investment
allocations
to
actuarial
assumptions
and
budget
cycles
play
into
this.
Many
pension
plans
are
in
a
fairly
solid
position.
D
It's
a
few
outlier
plans
that
have
long-running
funding
issues
that
tend
to
garner
the
headlines.
Still
the
50-state
pension
funding
gap,
the
difference
between
states,
retirement
system,
assets
and
liabilities
stands
at
1.24
trillion
dollars.
According
to
recent
data
from
the
pew
charitable
trusts
in
states
with
significant
underfunding,
its
sources
can
be
complex
and
policymakers
from
both
parties
have
had
incentives
to
pass
unfunded,
benefit,
increases
and
or
avoid
making
full
employer
contributions
for
public
employees
over
the
years.
D
In
recent
years,
many
state
and
local
governments
have
worked
to
increase
their
contributions
to
public
pensions.
Following
the
great
recession,
many
public
pension
plans
made
changes
to
their
funding
policies
and
practices
that
resulted
in
increases
in
required
contributions
in
subsequent
years.
According
to
the
national
association
of
state
retirement
administrators,
also
known
as
nazra.
D
However,
the
current
economic
climate
could
undermine
some
of
this
progress.
If
states
and
local
governments
face
significant
budget
shortfalls,
this
could
lead
to
lower
contribution
rates
for
some
states
in
the
future,
potentially
impacting
government's
ability
to
make
actuarially
required
contributions
to
their
pension
plans.
What's
great
for
pension
plans.
Right
now
is
that
the
s
p
500
index
has
surged
15
percent
this
year.
We'll
need
to
see
if
this
performance
will
continue
in
the
medium
to
long
term
to
get
a
better
picture
of
impacts
to
pension
plan
funding
levels.
D
State
responses
vary
considerably.
A
handful
of
states
have
turned
to
borrowing
to
help
address
the
gaps
in
revenue,
while
others
are
exploring
reductions
to
or
changes
in
scheduled
pension
contributions,
lowering
assumed
rates
of
return
and
some
states
are
leaning
on
cost
sharing
provisions
in
their
planned
designs.
D
D
The
mlf,
which
is
scheduled
to
end
on
december
31st,
is
one
of
around
a
dozen
emergency
credit
facilities
launched
by
the
central
bank
this
year.
The
mlf
has
not
been
very
widely
used,
however.
Illinois
will
borrow
2
billion
through
the
mlf
by
the
end
of
the
year.
This
will
be
the
second
time
that
illinois
has
accessed
the
mlf.
Having
borrowed
1.2
billion
in
june,
new
jersey
looked
at
using
the
mlf
but
ultimately
did
not
deciding
instead
to
issue
general
obligation.
Bonds
authorized
under
the
state's
covet
19
emergency
borrowing
act
with
proceeds,
totaling,
4.28
billion
dollars.
D
New
jersey
will
make
the
largest
pension
contribution
in
its
history
4.7
billion
dollars
before
the
budget
year
ends.
This
is
unusual
in
a
year
where
some
states
have
delayed
or
reduced
pension
system
contributions
to
help
plug
budget
gaps.
At
least
11
states
have
adopted
or
are
proposing
to
changes
to
their
scheduled
contributions
for
fiscal
year.
21..
D
A
few
examples
here
in
colorado
where
ncsl's
headquarters
is
located,
colorado
cut
its
payment
in
2020,
but
there's
a
proposal
to
reinstate
it
at
its
full
level.
For
the
next
budget
cycle,
florida's
budget
actually
increases
the
overall
pension
contributions
by
over
400
million
dollars.
In
this
current
fiscal
year
school
districts,
not
the
state
account
for
the
majority
of
this
increase
in
north
dakota.
The
governor's
next
budget
proposal
would
increase
employer
and
employee
contributions
by
one
percent
to
help
address
the
estimated
1.6
billion
dollar
unfunded
liability
in
their
state
pension
fund.
D
A
handful
of
public
plans
have
recently
reduced
their
investment
return
assumption,
and
many
states
have
done
this
in
the
recent
years
among
plans
sampled
by
nazara
nearly
all
have
reduced
their
investment
return
assumption
since
the
great
recession.
Looking
back
to
fiscal
year
2009
today,
the
median
return
assumption
stands
at
7.25
percent
in
order
to
address
investment
volatility
in
other
types
of
risk.
Some
plans
have
incorporated
variable
benefit
and
contribution
features
into
their
plan.
Designs.
D
South
dakota
and
wisconsin
are
two
examples
of
states
that
adopt
that
have
adopted
these
types
of
features
to
keep
employer
costs
stable
and
predictable
during
economic
downturns,
so
looking
at
what
they
did
in
south
dakota,
they
have
fixed
employer
and
employee
costs.
Their
variable
arrangement
consists
of
adjustable
benefits,
including
a
variable
cola
in
wisconsin,
employer
and
employee
contributions
are
variable.
They
rise
and
fall
equally
based
on
market
conditions,
their
post-retirement
annuity
adjustment,
which
is
just
what
they
call
their
cola,
is
also
based
on
investment
performance.
D
One
opportunity
that
variable
arrangements
present
is
to
reduce
uncertainty.
Knowing
how
you're
going
to
address
market
fluctuations
in
advance
can
help
legislators
design
a
plan
that
protects
and
even
enhances
benefits,
eliminating
rate
uncertainty
for
employers
can
create
more
certainty
for
state
budgeting.
This
may
even
be
more
important
than
the
dollar
amounts
involved.
D
The
flip
side,
of
course,
is
that
these
arrangements
tie
legislators
hands,
though
this
can
also
be
politically
expedient
if
lawmakers
don't
have
to
launch
reform
efforts
in
certain
politically
charged
climates.
Another
challenge
for
legislators
is
assuring
effective
communication
with
stakeholders,
both
in
the
creation
and
in
the
implementation
of
these
new
variable
arrangements
for
policy
makers.
D
Trying
to
understand
the
volatility
and
uncertainty
in
the
plans
they
oversee
stress
testing
can
be
an
important
tool
to
assess
what
might
happen
if
investment
assumptions
miss
the
mark
or
some
other
shortfalls
or
unexpected
event
like
covid,
creates
a
funding
gap.
Stress
testing
aims
to
refine,
enhance
and
formalize.
The
work
states
are
already
doing
to
evaluate
their
pensions
exposure
to
risk,
making
the
stress
test
results,
public
and
more
transparent
to
policy
makers
and
plan
members
aims
to
provide
important
context
for
discussions
about
how
the
plans
are
designed
and
funded.
D
Stress
testing
is
a
simulation
technique
that
can
help
policy
makers
anticipate
how
adverse
economic
conditions
will
affect
pension
balance
sheets
and
government
budgets.
Pension
plans-
stress
testing
is
not
an
academic
exercise.
A
growing
number
of
states
now
12
with
the
recent
addition
of
north
carolina
12
states
have
adopted
legislation
that
requires
stress
testing
and
some
have
used
these
analyses
to
navigate
market
downturns.
D
Many
states
are
tracking
fluctuating
returns
on
planned
investments
while
confronting
sharp
declines
in
expected
tax
revenues
and
increased
costs.
Policy
makers
are
feeling
their
way
through
this
period
of
uncertainty,
taking
a
variety
of
approaches
that
range
from
borrowing
to
modifying
contribution
rates,
to
falling
back
on
these
variable
plan,
design
features
that
adjust
automatically
with
market
conditions.
D
Before
I
take
questions,
I'd
like
to
highlight
very
quickly
some
upcoming
research
from
our
partners
at
the
pew
charitable
charitable
trusts.
In
the
new
year,
we
will
see
research
on
the
impact
of
coven
19
of
the
coven
19
recession
on
public
pensions,
so
far,
new
research
on
stress
testing
in
a
recession,
taking
into
account
the
impacts
of
coven
19
and
making
some
additional
recommendations,
as
well
as
a
50-state
update
on
opec
plans.
Of
course,
that's
other
post-employment
benefits
and
with
that
I'd
like
to
thank
you
for
your
participation
today
and
welcome
any
questions.
D
B
D
Well,
as
we
all
know,
the
word
of
2020
is
uncertainty,
and
it's
too
early
to
know
much
about
the
shape
and
scope
of
any
renewed
push
for
reform.
But
what
I
can
talk
about
is
what
we
saw
following
the
great
recession,
though
thankfully,
as
we
just
heard
from
chris
thornberg,
it
does
not
appear
as
though
our
economy
is
facing
anything
of
the
magnitude
of
the
great
recession.
D
But
following
the
great
recession,
much
of
the
state
legislation
was
concerned
with
increases
in
employee
contributions
and
usually
with
employ
increases
in
employer
contributions
as
well.
Another
kind
of
widespread
pension
reform
we've
seen
over
the
last
10
years,
has
been
in
enacting
higher
age
and
service
requirements
for
normal
retirement.
D
We've
also
seen
significant
changes
be
made
to
post-retirement
benefit,
increases
more
commonly
known
as
cost
of
living,
adjustments
or
colas,
so
we'll
have
to
see
what
happens,
but
the
typical
levers
that
states
have
pulled
in
the
past
are
likely
to
be
pulled
again
in
the
future.
Why?
I
really
talked
about
the
variable
design
features
as
well
as
stress
testing
is
those
are
some
of
the
newer
techniques
that
we've
seen
states
use
in
the
last
10
years,
since
the
last
major
market
shift.
B
D
So
this
is
known,
is
it's
a
certain
type
of
hybrid
system,
it's
widely
used
in
europe
and
in
canada,
but
we
have
not
seen
any
states
adopt
it.
The
state
of
pennsylvania
has
studied
it
the
most
and
has
put
out
some
reports
on
what
this
type
of
stacked
hybrid
arrangement
could
look
like.
But
yes,
it
is
very
intriguing,
but
no,
we
are
not
seeing
it
in
use
at
the
state
level
in
the
u.s.
D
I
Thank
you
mandy,
and
thank
you
for
having
me
and
luke.
I
don't
know
where
you
are.
It
looks
sunny
and
beautiful
it's
snowy
and
cold
outside,
where
I
am
take
me
to
where
you
are
it's
cold.
So
thank
you
for
having
me.
I've
been
with
ncsl
for
around
13
years,
working
on
education,
finance
in
particular,
and
I'm
going
to
cover
a
little
bit
about
the
pressures
impacting
both
the
revenue
and
the
expenditures
and
the
upward
pressures
on
the
expenditures
on
our
school
systems.
Right
now.
I
So
the
question
that
I've
been
getting
a
lot
is
the
past
prologue
for
for
education
budgets
like
we
saw
in
the
great
recession.
The
question
is,
I
don't
know,
and
even
now
more
after
after
dr
thornberg's
presentation,
it
seems
like
the
the
outlook
for
education
budgets
at
the
local
level
is
really
dependent
on
revenue
performance
at
the
state
level.
I
So
why
that
is
I'm
going
to
dig
into
that
a
little
bit
here
and
what
we
saw
after
the
great
recession
is
that
the
as
as
state
revenue
declined
for
k-12
education,
the
districts
with
greater
property,
wealth
per
pupil
property
wealth
actually
increased.
The
rates
property
tax
rates
to
make
up
for
declines
in
state
revenue.
I
But
this
has
an
impact
for
for
school
districts,
particularly
because
some
districts
have
a
wide
range
of
capacity
to
raise
revenue
at
the
local
level.
There
is
a
correlation,
a
statistically
significant
correlation
between
property,
poor
school
districts
and
the
concentration
of
students
from
poorer
families,
where
families
with
lower
incomes
or
students
with
greater
academic
needs.
So
there's
some
equity
implications
involved
with
this.
This
tax
structure
that
we
have
for
funding
public
education.
I
I
like
to
create
data
visualizations
for
your
use,
so
this
is
another
look
at
how
revenue
performance
this
time,
specifically
for
schools,
and
you
can
go
to
this
website
and
look
at
your
state
to
see
the
revenue
performance
in
your
state
for
public
schools.
So
these
are
the
revenue,
the
the
major
revenues,
local
property
tax,
local
taxes
and
then
state
state
revenue
and
again
we
saw
on
average
throughout
the
united
states
that
the
the
reliance
on
the
local
property
tax
did
increase.
I
I
I
I
So
this
is
to
show
kind
of
the
the
changes
in
enrollment
since
1990
and
in
really
since
2000
over
the
last
20
years.
The
average
inc
gain
in
in
students
across
the
united
states
on
average
is
just
about
180
000
students
or
about
a
point
two
nine
percent
increase
from
year
to
year,
and
of
course
it
fluctuates
a
little
bit.
I
But
we're
hearing
reports
from
states
that
the
enrollment
shifts
and
declines
are
from
two
to
four
percent,
and
this
is
going
to
going
to
have
a
huge
impact
on
our
funding
systems
for
k-12
syst
for
our
k-12
systems.
There's
that
impact,
but
there's
also
the
impact
on
these
students
who
are
are
missing
in
this
data.
There's
one
estimate
about
that
about
three
million
students
are
being
underserved
right
now.
That
would
have
been
served
if
we
were
in
in
school
in
person,
and
these
three
million
are
among
the
most
vulnerable
students.
I
Also,
the
declines
in
enrollment
tend
to
be
on
the
edges
of
of
our
k-12
spectrum,
so
it's
the
kindergartners
and
first
graders
and
the
11th
graders
and
12th
graders
that
are
we're
seeing
the
most
declines
in
enrollment.
It's
so
as
you're
moving
forward
and
plotting
forward
in
your
sessions
about
how
to
deal
with
this.
Keep
that
in
mind,
too,
that
the
the
variances
are
are
are
really
dependent
on
the
grade
that
that
we're
addressing
here
and
why
this
is
important,
particularly
for
this
mechanism.
I
These
intergovernmental
aid
formulas
that
we
have
devised
to
distribute
funds
from
the
state
to
local
levels
is
that
we
rely
on
on
these
student
count,
numbers
and
mechanisms
to
divvy
up
this
money
from
district
to
district
and
states
do
this
differently.
I
have
here
the
japanese
of
options
that
states
use,
and
so
it's
it'd
be
helpful
to
look
and
investigate
what
what
mechanism
you
have
in
your
state
and
what
the
implications
may
be
by
relying
on
this
mechanism.
I
The
question
was
about
at
the
university
level,
but
we
do
actually
have
some
research
on
the
implications
from
the
k
through
12
level.
This
comes
from
eric
kanyasek
he's
a
long
time,
education,
economist
at
stanford
university,
and
he
with
his
his
colleague
in
germany,
estimated
that
this,
the
current
learning
loss
because
of
the
covenant
19
pandemic,
may
result
in
three
percent:
lower
incomes
to
these
students
over
the
course
of
their
lifetime
and
the
implication
for
states
or
for
nations.
I
I
And
this
also
has
impacts
for
students,
and
it
has
equity
implications
because
typically,
the
schools
and
the
districts
that
are
disproportionately
impacted
by
layoffs
are
high
poverty,
schools.
We
have
some
good
research
to
indicate
that
that's
happening,
so
I
you
know,
I'm
hoping
hopeful
that
our
state
revenue
will
will
be
as
rosy
as
as
has
been
suggested
at
the
beginning
of
the
meeting,
and
that
we
can
avoid
some
of
these
worst
ramifications.
I
One
thing
I
do
want
to
show
real,
quick,
I'm
at
the
end
of
my
general
remarks,
but
I
I
like
to
create
powerpoint
presentations
that
can
be
a
resource
for
you
long
after
the
presentation
is
done.
So
I
have
all
these
resources
here
that
you
can
go
and
look
at
that
they're
also
the
resources
and
sources
that
I
use
for
for
the
the
figures
that
I
cite
here.
I
But
if
there's
any
questions,
I'd
also
like
to
during
the
question
address
some
of
the
ways
that
the
schools
and
districts
are
and
states
are
triaging.
The
some
of
the
the
worst
implications
of
the
decline
in
revenue
and
and
the
the
budget
pressures
that
are
are
moving
upward
because
of
increased
expenses
and
please
reach
out
anytime.
B
I
I
Utah,
the
staff
in
utah
put
together
this
document
of
a
lot
of
different
light,
ions
that
they
could
consider
cuttering,
cutting
based
upon
five
percent
decline,
seven
point
five
percent
declines
and
ten
percent
declines,
but
it
was
also
a
document
because
they
did
that
that
that
really
it
was
a
statement
of
what
they
valued
in
their
education
system.
So
I
think
it's
helpful
to
have
that
kind
of
document
where
you
can
say
you
know,
this
is
what
we
think
we
can.
I
In
making
these
these
cuts
a
couple
other
examples
from
around
the
country
that
we've
seen
georgia,
how
to
make
a
900
million
cut
to
k-12
education,
but
they
also,
I
added
a
line
out
of
750
million,
I'm
getting
the
numbers
one,
but
we're
in
that
range
of
new
money
for
districts
that
have
per
people,
property,
property,
wealth
below
the
state
average.
So
again,
considering
those
districts
that
have
less
fiscal
capacity
and
making
sure
that
they
do
have
the
resources
to
to
mitigate
declines
or
losses
in
state
revenue.
I
The
other
interesting
example
was
oklahoma
that
had
to
make
4.2
declines
across
the
board
for
all
agencies,
but
they
they
held
education
a
little
bit
harmless
at
2.5
clients.
So
again,
being
cognizant
of
of
the
you
know,
future
drivers
of
the
economic
engine
near
the
future
and
trying
to
mitigate
harm
to
our
our
students
and
children.
B
Great
thank
you.
So,
let's
see,
oh
here's,
some
here's
another
one
in
the
chat.
Let's
see,
do
you
have
an
estimate
of
the
actual
savings
schools
realized
due
to
lack
of
overhead
of
expenses
with
school
buildings
and
busing
being
shut
down
in
q2
in
a
portion
of
quarter?
Three,
do
you
have
a
net
amount
also
with
the
infusion
of
karzak
dollars
and
fema
dollars
directed
to
schools.
I
I
They
still
had
supplies
that
they
had
already
contracted
to
buy
or
already
had
purchased
for
the
school
year,
so
there
weren't
that
many
places
where
they
were
actually
cutting
funding
or
were
able
to
cut
expenditures,
they're
already
locked
in
most
of
it
owing
to
labor.
So
there
wasn't
really
that
much
in
in
in
in
reduced
expenses
they
still
had
to
pay
the
electrical
bills
etc.
So,
and
with
the
with
the
cares,
act
money
I
I
I
you
know-
I
haven't
tracked
that
closely.
So
I
don't
want
to.
I
I
don't
want
to
dive
into
that,
because
I
will
sound
wrong
because
I
will
be
wrong.
I
refer
to
austin
our
our
our
very
talented
federal
affairs
council
for
on
the
federal
level,
who's
been
tracking
very
closely
the
the
federal
carers
act
and
we
actually
have
a
good
new
resource
on
our
website
about
that.
So
I'm
just
gonna
defer
that
question
to
austin.
B
A
A
First,
it's
important
to
step
back
and
reframe
our
picture
of
today's
college
student.
Today's
college
student
is
much
less
likely
to
be
your
typical
college
freshman,
who
is
a
recent
high
school
graduate
who
attends
full
time
and
doesn't
work?
In
fact,
among
today's
college
students,
almost
40
percent
of
students
are
25
years
of
age
or
older.
A
Increasingly,
today's
students
face
additional
challenges
as
they
progress
through
their
higher
education
pursuits,
including
transportation
and
child
care,
food
and
housing,
and
certainly
above
all,
affordability
and,
of
course,
affordability,
isn't
just
about
getting
to
college.
It's
not
just
about
college
access,
but
about
college
completion.
A
A
A
A
Certainly,
potential
cuts
in
funding
and
revenue
are
looming.
Many
states
and
institutions
are
in
a
holding
pattern,
waiting
to
see
how
any
pending
or
possible
federal
assistance
plays
out
and
higher
education
budgets
will
be
increasingly
challenged
by
predicted
state
and
local
revenue
shortfalls
we'd
already
been
seeing
signs
of
trouble
with
institutional
sustainability.
A
For
example,
pennsylvania
house
bill
2171,
enacted
earlier
this
year,
provides
the
pennsylvania
state
system
of
higher
education
board,
expanded
authority
to
implement
mergers
and
consolidations
without
the
approval
of
the
legislature,
and
it
does
include
an
exemption
for
institutions
over
10
000
students
on
the
private
college
side.
After
the
abrupt
closure
of
mount
ida
college
in
2018
massachusetts,
lawmakers
sought
to
increase
monitoring
of
college's
financial
health.
A
A
Well,
in
the
long
term,
higher
ed
funding
and
affordability
will
continue
to
be
a
challenge.
State
legislators
want
to
ensure
that
students
apply
for
and
receive
all
available.
Financial
aid.
Washington
senate
bill,
6141
passed
just
this
year,
creates
various
new
incentives
to
promote
financial
aid.
Application
completion,
including
a
standardized
template
for
financial
aid
award
packages,
a
financial
aid
advising
day
for
high
school
students
and
a
centralized
online
tool
for
students
to
calculate
the
cost
of
attendance.
A
Several
states
to
date
it's
louisiana
texas
and
illinois,
now
mandate,
fafsa
completion
for
high
school
students,
high
school
seniors
as
a
graduation
requirement,
and
we
anticipate
that
this
could
continue
to
be
an
issue
of
concern,
given
that
fafsa
applications
are
decreasing
significantly
from
a
year
ago.
At
this
time.
A
So
to
date,
the
high
school
class
of
2021
has
16
percent
fewer
fafsa
completions
than
at
this
time.
Last
year,
student
loan
oversight
and
consumer
protection
for
those
who
hold
student
loans
continue
to
be
important
issues.
At
least
a
dozen
states
have
enacted
student
loan
oversight
legislation,
including
a
student
borrower,
bill
of
rights,
additional
requirements
for
student
loan
servicers
and
the
creation
of
a
student
loan
ombudsman
who
can
help
and
advocate
for
borrowers.
A
So
you
can
keep
an
eye
on
what's
happening
in
about
20
different
categories,
we're
also
tracking
the
student
loan
activity
in
a
separate
database
and
there's
the
covid
education
database
that
dan
mentioned
previously.
So
with
that,
please
reach
out
to
me
with
questions
or
throw
them
in
the
chat.
I
look
forward
to
hearing
kind
of
what's
happening
with
you
all
in
your
states
and
thank
you.
B
A
A
B
Thank
you.
You
know.
I
actually
have
another
question
because
you
know
historically,
in
an
economic
downturn,
higher
ed
gets
cut
disproportionately
to
other
programs
because
they
can
raise
their
own
revenues
through.
You
know,
tuition
increases
and
endowments,
and
you
know
lucrative
football
programs,
but
in
covid
you
know
higher
ed's
in
a
pretty
precarious
position,
and
so
what?
What
have
you
seen
states
doing?
A
Well,
you're
right,
the
higher
ed
has
traditionally
been
sort
of
first
on
the
on
the
cutting
block,
but
the
result
of
that-
and
I
think
you
know
more
than
ever-
constituents
maybe
are
pushing
back
the
result
of
that
is
that
tuition
has
just
skyrocketed.
You
know
over
the
past
10
years
it's
gone
up
more
than
35,
so
tuition
has
become.
You
know,
kind
of
the
driver,
then
of
student
loans
which
become
the
driver
of
you,
know,
challenges
kind
of
keeping
up
with
your
state
economy.
A
So
we
have
seen
less
cuts.
So
far
is
what
I,
where
I'm
going
with
this
most,
have
tried
to
protect
their
higher
ed
funding
in
the
current
budget
cycle
and,
as
I
said,
kind
of
put
off
decisions,
unfortunately,
until
they
see
where
the
feds
kind
of
land,
if
there's
an
additional
help
next
year,
so
we'll
be
closely
tracking
education
budgets
into
next
year,
but
anticipate
cuts,
but
don't
yet
know
what
they'll
look
like
all
right.
B
Okay,
thank
you.
Is
there
any?
I
don't
see
any
other
questions
and
it
looks
like
we're
right
on
time.
So
thank
you
sonny
preparing
remarks,
and
now
we
will
move
into
criminal
justice
and
amanda
essex,
but
I
want
to
take
just
a
minute
to
remind
people
if
you're,
if
your
name
shows
ncsl
fiscal
program,
if
you
wouldn't
mind
changing
that,
because
we're
trying
to
assign
people
to
breakout
rooms
following
this
program,
and
so
we
need
to
know
who
you
are
and
the
way
you
change.
B
E
E
Today,
I'm
going
to
provide
a
short
overview
of
corrections,
budget
considerations
and
highlight
a
few
recent
state
actions.
Before
I
start,
I
would
like
to
acknowledge
and
thank
the
few
charitable
trusts
for
the
generous
support.
They've
provided
to
ncsl
and
state
legislatures
and
ncsl's
criminal
justice
program
has
a
long
time.
Partnership
with
the
public
safety
performance
project.
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
One
note
on
correction
spending.
It's
supported
almost
entirely
by
state
general
funds
on
average,
only
about
two
to
three
percent
of
corrections.
Budgets
come
from
other
sources,
such
as
federal
burn,
jag
grants,
there's
very
little
federal
money
and
very
few
federal
requirements
on
state
criminal
justice
systems.
So
it
is
state
policy
and
management
decisions
that
are
the
primary
driver
of
prison
populations
and
costs.
E
E
As
with
every
other
budget
area,
we've
been
seeing
cuts
that
have
impacted
criminal
justice
this
year,
arkansas
reduced
its
fiscal
year.
2020
budget
for
the
state
corrections,
division
by
17.5
million
or
close
to
5
percent
facilities
were
slated
to
be
closed
in
michigan
and
minnesota,
and
cuts
put
educational
programs
at
risk
in
oregon's
correctional
facilities.
E
Washington's
corrections
department,
for
example,
proposed
a
range
of
policy
changes
to
reduce
the
budget,
including
limiting
incarceration
for
some
crimes
and
expanding
the
availability
of
earned
time.
The
department
conducted
an
analysis
of
spending
in
order
to
develop
a
thoughtful
and
measured
approach
to
the
needed
budget
cuts.
E
Incarcerating
people
in
prisons
and
jails
is
one
of
the
most
expensive
portions
of
criminal
justice
budgets.
One
estimate
is
that
nearly
nine
out
of
every
ten
dollars
spent
on
corrections
supports
incarceration
expenses.
There
are
a
range
of
policy
levers
that
can
reduce
the
number
of
people
incarcerated,
thereby
contributing
to
reduced
costs.
E
E
Offenses
policy
changes
can
also
reduce
the
length
of
stay
or
how
much
time
is
spent
in
prisons
and
jails,
for
instance,
expanding
the
availability
of
earned
and
good
time
for
incarcerated
people
and
establishing
a
presumption
of
parole
whereby
there's
a
presumption
that
people
will
be
paroled
when
they
reach
their
parole
eligibility
date
as
long
as
they
meet
certain
conditions,
such
as
not
having
any
disciplinary
issues.
In
the
preceding
year,
health
care
costs
accounted
for
around
20
percent
of
prison
expenditures
in
2015,
with
states
spending
8.1
billion
on
prison,
health
care.
E
E
E
E
States
have
also
used
telemedicine,
the
consolidation
of
prison
pharmacies
and
bulk
prescription,
drug
purchasing
to
trim
prison
health
costs,
and
one
quick
note
on
the
public
buy-in
to
some
of
these
changes.
A
2012
national
poll
of
registered
voters
found
overwhelming
support
for
policy
changes
that
provide
more
effective
and
less
expensive
alternatives
to
prison.
State
specific
polls
have
found
similar
results.
A
2016
poll
of
crime
victims
similarly
found
that
six
and
ten
prefer
shorter
prison
sentences
and
more
spending
on
prevention
and
rehabilitation,
rather
than
prison
sentences
that
keep
offenders
incarcerated
for
as
long
as
possible.
B
E
There
was
a
research
released
in
october,
not
october,
just
in
2018
from
the
rand
corporation
that
really
conducted
a
meta-analysis
to
find
was
there
this
link
and
they
actually
found
inmates
participating
in
correctional
education
programs
were
28
less
likely
to
recidivate
when
compared
to
other
inmates,
and
so
that
kind
of
goes
along
with
the
importance
of
really
taking
a
measured
approach
to
some
of
these
cuts,
because
so
much
of
the
drive
in
making
changes
in
corrections
policy,
you
still
want
to
maintain
public
safety,
reduce
recidivism,
and
some
of
these
cuts
may
be
counterproductive.
For
that.
B
E
So
there
I'm
trying
to
remember
exactly
who
it
is.
I
believe
it's,
oh!
No!
It's
not
prison
policy,
so
I
have
a
resource
that
I
can
share
a
link
to
on
justice
system
responses
to
covid,
and
that
includes
a
link
for
its
marshall
project
that
is
tracking
the
number
of
inmate
deaths.
Staff
deaths.
Inmate
infections
and
they've
really
been
doing
a
lot
to
keep
that
information
up
to
date.
So
I
will
drop
that
link
to
share.
B
B
G
G
G
If
you
happen
to
have
tuned
in
to
some
previous
ncsl
fiscal
webinars,
you
might
have
already
heard
some
of
this
content
before
so.
Apologies,
if
it's
repetitive,
but
with
the
coronavirus
pandemic,
interrupting
state
legislative
sessions
across
the
country.
A
lot
of
issues
including
tax,
were
placed
on
the
back
burner
as
the
economic
landscape
had
undergone
such
a
dramatic
shift
states
largely
pushed
through
fiscal
year
2020
by
drawing
on
reserves,
freezing
or
cutting
spending
or
borrowing
revenue
actions
were
relatively
scarce.
G
That's
not
to
say
that
nothing
happened
on
the
tax
front,
just
that
2021
will
likely
be
a
bit
busier,
although
the
extent
to
which
that
is
true
will
likely
depend
on
whether
any
additional
federal
aid
that
for
states
materializes
and
how
much.
But
here
are
some
of
the
main
tax
trends
over
the
last
year.
Tax
filing
extensions
in
response
to
the
corona
virus,
the
federal
government
extended
filing
and
payment
deadlines
for
personal
income
taxes
by
three
months.
G
States
were
essentially
obligated
to
do
the
same
and
all
of
them
extended
filing
deadlines
for
personal
income
taxes,
largely
nearing
the
federal
deadlines
and
some
provided
extensions
for
other
types
of
taxes
as
well.
In
general,
these
were
not
projected
to
have
a
revenue
impact,
but
in
at
least
19
states.
G
G
Most
states
with
income
taxes
tie
their
tax
codes
to
the
federal
code,
at
least
14
states
in
d.c
automatically
conform
to
these
measures.
Several
states
decided
that
they
could
not
afford
specific
provisions
and
partially
decoupled
via
legislation,
because
conformity
decisions
come
with
revenue
consequences.
It's
likely
that
states
will
continue
to
scrutinize
cares
act
provisions
in
2021,
as
well
as
re-examine
provisions
included
in
the
2017
tax
cuts
and
jobs
act
leading
up
to
the
pandemic.
The
most
significant
state
tax
trend
was
the
implementation
of
laws
to
require
internet
retailers
to
collect
sales
and
use
taxes.
G
All
of
the
states
that
have
sales
taxes
except
florida
have
passed
laws
to
do
so.
All
of
the
sales
tax
states
except
florida,
missouri
and
kansas
have
also
passed
laws
requiring
marketplace
facilitators
or
entities
that
facilitate
sales
for
third-party
sellers,
amazons
or
ebays
of
the
world
to
collect
sales
taxes
on
those
third-party
sales
as
well.
Most
of
this
had
been
accomplished
before
2020,
but
there
were
a
few
marketplace:
facilitator
laws
enacted
in
states
like
georgia
and
tennessee,
and
now
they
have
these
laws
in
place.
G
G
Then
the
excise
tracks
front,
a
number
of
states
looked
text
size
taxes
to
raise
revenue.
Several
raised
motor
fuel
tax
rates,
eight
states,
increased
taxes
on
tobacco
products
or
implemented
new
taxes
on
electronic
cigarettes.
This
year,
several
states
provided
for
the
expansion
of
gambling
operations.
G
All
of
these
measures
passed
and
it
wasn't
really
close
on
any
of
them
so
based
on
these
results,
2021
would
be
a
big
year
for
marijuana
and
vaping
taxes.
I'm
not
going
to
get
into
these
last
two
slides
on
the
november
ballot
measures
results,
but
if
you're
interested
in
the
results
on
the
major
tax
measures,
I've
included
in
this
presentation
here.
G
Sorry
about
that
between
2010
and
2012,
at
least
eight
states
enacted
measures
to
expand
gambling,
four
increased
car
rental
taxes,
five
increased
gas
taxes
and
at
least
25
increased
either
tobacco
or
alcohol
taxes.
So
in
some
cases
these
were
applied
only
temporarily,
but
I
think
we'll
see
excise
taxes
that
were
trending
before
the
pandemic
continue
to
gain
steam.
This
year,
sports
betting,
internet
gambling,
marijuana
legalization,
vaping
taxes
states
have
also
been
looking
at
taxing
the
quote-unquote
sharing
economy,
short-term
rental
companies
like
airbnb
transportation,
network
companies
like
uber
and
lyft.
G
These
have
been
presenting
regulatory
challenges
for
states
and
they've
had
to
decide
whether
to
shoehorn
these
platforms
into
existing
regulations
or
develop
new
tax
and
regulatory
fragments
to
accommodate
them.
As
I
mentioned
marketplace,
facilitator
laws
are
being
extended
to
require
these
entities
to
collect
other
kinds
of
taxes
and
fees,
in
addition
to
sales
tax,
and
I
expect
that
may
continue.
G
G
Going
going
into
this
downturn,
only
a
handful
of
states,
tax,
sale,
tax
services,
broadly,
which
has
become
an
increasingly
large
problem
as
services,
have
taken
up
a
growing
share
of
consumer
spending.
Roughly
two-thirds,
the
political
opposition
to
taxing
services
has
been
pretty
strong
in
the
past.
Quite
a
few
states
have
tried
and
failed
to
tax
them
broadly
with
utah
last
year
being
the
most
recent
example,
but
we.
G
Several
states
over
the
last
few
years
enact
legislation
to
select
tax
select
services
states
like
connecticut
kentucky
iowa
north
carolina
dc.
We've
also
seen
a
push
to
apply
the
sales
tax
to
things
like
digital
products,
streaming
service
software
as
a
service.
These
are
now
taxable
in
roughly
half
the
states
and
if
you
consider
the
number
of
people
who
are
consuming
more
in-home
entertainment
and
digital
products
since
the
pandemic
began,
this
seems
like
an
area
that
will
continue
to
receive
attention.
G
G
There's
some
controversy
around
these
measures,
which
some
experts
speculated,
could
be
struck
down
for
being
discriminatory
against
electronic
and
interstate
commerce,
but
maryland's
measure
did
pass
the
legislature,
although
it
was
vetoed
by
the
governor,
but
it
seems
likely
that
some
of
these
debates
will
return
in
2021
on
the
personal
income
tax
front.
That
was
a
go-to
raising
revenue
raising
tool
during
the
great
recession
between
fiscal
years,
2010
and
2012.
At
least
10
states
increased
personal
income
tax
rates
with
eight
of
them,
targeting
the
increases
towards
those
with
high
or
relatively
high
incomes.
G
G
These
rate
increases
were
temporary,
several
states
also
increased
tax
on
capital
gains
or
repealed
or
reduced
available
deductions.
At
least
10
states
proposed
legislation
to
tax
higher
earners
in
2020,
but
new
jersey
is
the
only
state
so
far,
that's
enacted
it
arizona.
Voters
also
recently
approved
a
3.5
surcharge
on
incomes
over
250
thousand
dollars
at
the
ballot.
B
B
G
B
A
Behavior
is
because
you
know,
there's
a
uniformity
that
we
have
to
be
bound
by
in
our
states,
and
most
most
constitutions
have
a
uniform
application
of
law,
and
so
you
have
to
be
able
to
establish
why
you're
treating
one
group
differently
than
another
and
sometimes
just
having
a
public
policy
reason.
As
you
know.
Well,
the
state
needs
money,
usually.
G
B
Well-
and
I
think
that
you
know
the
nature
of
having
tax
brackets,
I
mean
higher
income
is
taxed
more
in
those
states,
so
I
don't
think
I
don't
think
it's
ever
been
challenged.
If
you
just
create
a
high
income
bracket,
I
think
maybe
the
the
issue
of
taxing
you
know
increasing
the
real
estate
transfer
taxes
on
mansions.
B
B
B
G
California,
delaware,
louisiana,
mississippi,
and
I
know
that
more
than
20
states
have
borrowed
from
the
federal
government
to
sustain
those
and
that
that
money
will
need
to
be
paid
back
at
some
point.
So
I
think
we'll
see
states
take
steps
to
try
to
avoid
significant
payroll
tax
hikes,
but
in
some
cases
some
increases
may
be
inevitable
down
the
line.
B
G
I
think
it's
definitely
possible
that
there
will
be
some
contention
between
states,
especially
up
in
the
tri-state
area.
For
example.
I
know
like
new
hampshire
has
some
some
problems
with
massachusetts
trying
to
tax
workers
that
are
working
remotely
there
now,
so
probably
will
be
some
some
additional
hashing
out
of
those
rules,
and
I
know
there's
also
been
a
push
for
federal
legislation
to
create
some
kind
of
uniform
threshold
across
states
for
non-resident.
Withholding
so
we'll
see
how
those
play
out.
B
Okay,
okay,
so
if
not,
then
I
just
want
to
we'll
conclude
this
segment
on
budget
drivers
and
another
big.
Thank
you
to
all
of
my
ncsl
colleagues
who
prepared
remarks
and
joined
us
today.
We
really
appreciate
your
expertise,
so
we
will
now
take
about
a
15
minute
break
and
then
we'll
come
back
and
we're
going
to
put
you
into
breakout
rooms
by
region
and
the
you
know.