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From YouTube: 12/5/2022 - Economic Forum Pt. 1
Description
This is the fourth meeting in calendar year 2022. Please see agenda for details.
For agenda and additional meeting information: https://www.leg.state.nv.us/App/Calendar/A/
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A
A
A
I
would
like
to
again
welcome
the
members,
presenters
staff
and
any
members
of
the
public
to
this
meeting
of
the
economic
Forum.
I
would
like
to
thank
the
legislative,
Council
bureau's
staff
for
their
assistance
in
setting
this
meeting
up
and
their
work
today
to
allow
the
meetings
agenda
to
be
completed.
A
At
today's
meeting
we
will
have
forecasts
presented
by
the
various
forecasters
on
the
state's
major
general
fund
Revenue
sources,
and
we
will
be
approving
forecasts
for
fiscal,
2023,
2024
and
2025
for
each
Revenue
source.
Additionally,
we
will
be.
We
will
review
the
technical
advisory
committee's
forecast,
approved
at
their
meeting
on
November
29th
and
approve
a
forecast
for
the
minor
Revenue
sources
and
tax
credit
programs.
A
Like
the
November
meeting,
we
will
have
a
presentation
by
Emily
Mandel
from
Moody's
Analytics
on
their
economic
Outlook
and
forecast
for
the
sales
and
gaming
taxes,
but
her
presentation
will
be
made
virtually
this
time.
After
that,
we
will
proceed
through
the
agenda
items
regarding
forecasts
for
the
major
and
minor
fund
Revenue
sources.
A
Given
the
length
of
the
meeting,
it
is
my
intent
to
have
a
short
break
for
lunch,
but
the
time
for
that
break
will
depend
on
how
we
proceed
through
the
agenda
items
and
the
need
to
recess
to
allow
the
staff
time
to
complete
the
forecast
tables
and
Report
with
that.
I
would
like
to
ask
any
of
the
other
members.
If
they
have
any
opening
remarks
they
would
like
to
make
seeing
none.
Then
I
would
like
to
proceed
with
any
public
comment
under
agenda
item
number.
A
For
public
comment
under
agenda
item
three:
is
there
anybody
here
in
Carson
City?
That
would
like
to
provide
public
comment?
Yes,
ma'am
go
ahead,
please
introduce
yourself!
Thank
you,
chair
Rosenthal
and
members
of
the
committee
good
morning.
Apologies
I
have
a
little
upper
respiratory
but
not
covid.
My
name
is
Leah
case
Belgian
case
government
Affairs
and
I
overheard.
You
talking
before
the
committee
started
and
I
am
actually
here,
because
it
is
the
one
year
anniversary
of
the
passing
of
Carol,
Velardo
and
I
thought.
A
So
I
just
wanted
to
thank
you
for
having
this
meeting
today
and
in
memory
of
Carol.
I
would
like
to
share
two
things:
I
learned
from
her
number
one,
the
closer
the
nexuses
between
the
tax
and
the
user,
the
better
it
is
and
number
two
there
is
no
perfect
tax.
So
thank
you
for
your
time
today
and
in
memory
of
Carol
Velardo
I'm
excited
to
be
at
economic
forum.
A
A
A
A
A
So
you've
heard
this
before,
but
I
say
this
disclaimer
every
time
I
present
I
work
for
movies
analytics,
which
is
an
independent
entity
from
Moody's
investor
service,
so
nothing
I,
say
today
should
be
construed
as
having
any
bearing
on
any
ratings
actions.
Past
present
future
okay.
Put
that
out
of
the
way.
Let's
move
on
to
the
economic
Outlook
similar
to
last
time,
I'm
going
to
speak
a
little
about
our
National
Economic
Outlook.
A
How
that
has
evolved
or
more
frankly,
is
similar
to
what
I
presented
to
all
of
you
a
month
ago
and
then
I'll
talk
a
little
bit
more
about
Nevada
our
outlook
for
the
state
and
then
I'll
show
our
new,
updated
forecast
tables
for
the
sales
and
use
test
packs
and
the
gaming
percentage
feedbacks.
A
So
this
chart
looks
a
lot
like
the
one
I
showed
you
a
month
ago
and
that
consistency
is
going
to
be
a
theme
for
my
presentation
today.
Here
we're
seeing
the
forecast
for
real
GDP
growth.
This
has
been
updated
to
reflect
our
November
forecast
vintage
versus
last
time.
A
When
I
made
these
forecasts,
we
were
working
off
of
our
October
vintage,
so
a
little
bit
of
an
update
there,
but
it
is
very
similar,
maybe
a
little
bit
flatter
in
that
years,
but
not
substantially,
and
that's
because
our
Outlook
has
not
materially
changed
between
these
two
months.
Our
assumptions
have
remained
the
same,
so
our
Baseline
forecast,
this
blue
line
is
still
recession
free.
A
That
said,
the
Outlook
is
tenuous
and
there's
quite
a
bit
of
risk
and
we're
going
to
discuss
that
and
the
different
types
of
risks
we're
facing
right
now,
even
under
this
Baseline,
though-
and
you
can
see
this
here
in
the
2223
forecast-
is
that
we're
expecting
a
significant
Slowdown
we've
been
referring
to
this
as
a
growth
recession,
meaning
that,
while
the
economy
doesn't
contract
year
over
year
and
it
wouldn't
fit
the
criteria
in
order
to
be
classified
as
a
you
know,
formal
recession
under
that
criteria
that
the
National
Bureau
of
economic
research
uses
when
we're
going
from
such
a
strong
growth
that
we've
had
coming
out
of
the
pandemic
recession
over
the
last
couple
of
years
to
this
very
weak
piece
of
growth
that
we're
anticipating
it
and
when
that's
happening
so
quickly
over
the
span
of
essentially
a
year,
that's
going
to
feel
a
little
bit
like
a
recession
and
we're
going
to
see
slow
down
in
a
lot
of
different
areas
of
the
economy.
A
It's
possible
we'll
see
layoffs,
it's
possible
that
we'll
see
the
unemployment
rate
tick
up
a
little
bit
and
that's
all
baked
in
into
this
forecast.
I
think
it's
important
to
keep
in
mind
that
you
know
when
we're
essentially
flat
for
a
year.
That
means
that
some
parts
of
the
economy
are
still
growing,
but
another
major
portion,
the
other
half
of
the
economy,
can
be
actually
Contracting,
and
so
that
slowdown
is
going
to
be
significant.
A
Even
if
it's
not
running
going
to
be
a
full
recession
in
our
Baseline
forecast
to
put
the
size
of
the
Slowdown
we're
anticipating
into
context.
We
can
look
at
prior
history
here
and
you
can
see
prior
recessions
on
this
chart
denoted
by
these
gray
recession
bars
here.
Our
Baseline
Outlook
is
going
to
would
be
more
similar
to
a
2000
or
2001
type
of
recession.
A
Even
back
then
without
some
of
the
financial
Market
impacts
that
we
had
I
don't
know
if
that
would
even
have
been
termed
recession,
because
it
really
just
went
down
to
around
zero.
So
that's
what
we'd
expect
in
our
Baseline,
but
not
being
formally
classified
as
fashion
more
as
a
quote
growth
recession,
which
we've
been
calling.
It
I'm
not
going
to
focus
so
much
on
these
Alternatives
here
today.
I
know
we'd
all
covered
them
in
depth
previously,
but
we
can
Circle
back
to
these
other
possibilities
at
the
end,
if
you'd
like.
A
Inflation
is
going
to
be
key
to
the
Outlook
over
the
next
year
recent
date,
and
we
really
need
that
inflation
to
start
coming
in
and
we're
starting
to
see
that
start
coming
in
we're
seeing
at
least
the
last
month's
CPI
report,
in
line
with
what
we
need
in
order
to
remain
on
this
path
that
I've
laid
out
here,
and
that
inflation
really
needs
to
come
in,
so
that
we
don't
end
up
with
even
higher
interest
rates
than
we're
going
into
and
an
even
more
deliberate
slowdown
of
the
economy.
A
So
part
of
this
reduction
in
the
CPI
part
of
this
reduction
in
inflation
is
already
kind
of
on
autopilot
here,
but
not
all
of
it
is,
and
there's
going
to
be
a
few
different
phases
to
how
we
think
this
slow
down.
The
slowing
of
inflation
is
going
to
play
out.
A
First
off
is
ties
back
to
commodity
prices.
This
is
part
of
the
reason
that
inflation
is
so
high,
and
so
persistent
that
is
it
is
today
is
because
we
saw
this
really
rapid
increase
in
oil
prices,
with
Russia's
invasion
of
Ukraine
and
other
commodity
prices
as
well,
but
if
we
just
have
oil
staying
at
its
current
level
at
its
current
price
over
the
next
year,
this
would
have
a
major
impact
in
bringing
down
inflation
just
through
the
base
effects
there.
Currently,
inflation
in
the
past
month
was
at
7.7
percent.
A
If
we
just
get
stability
in
some
of
these
commodity
prices,
that
would
bring
it
closer
into
the
maybe
four
percent
range,
so
that's
without
any
significant
decline,
but
also
without
any
new
shock
that
would
raise
those
prices
higher.
So
that's
phase
one
here.
Energy,
of
course,
is
that
yellow
bar
on
this
chart-
and
you
can
see
that's
already
starting
to
come
in
a
little
in
terms
of
the
year
ago-
change
there.
A
The
second
part
here
that
is
going
to
be
important
in
getting
this
back
back
down
and
another
part
that
I'd
say
is
already
it's
not
on
autopilot,
then
very
much.
You
know
heading
down
the
freeway.
It's
very
much
moving
ahead
and
that
is
the
cost
of
housing.
A
I'm
sure
all
of
us
are
aware:
we've
had
these
massive
run
up
in
housing,
both
in
Nevada
and
nationally
over
the
past
two
years,
but
that
has
started
to
turn
we're
already
seeing
prices
roll
over
in,
especially
in
single
family
housing,
and
also
starting
to
see
that
that
come
through
in
some
of
our
multi-family
we're
seeing
some
demand
destruction
as
people
just
can't
afford
prices
at
current
levels,
especially
with
mortgage
rates
up
the
way
they
are,
and
so
this
is
intentional
by
the
Federal
Reserve
they're
trying
to
bring
in
some
of
this
activity
and
it
it's
succeeding.
A
We
have
to
see
how
severe
an
impact
this
is
going
to
have
on
the
economy.
This
you
know
rapid
reduction
in
housing
activity
here,
but
it's
going
to
have
positive
impacts
in
terms
of
bringing
down
prices
and
we're
already
starting
to
see
that
there's
some
lags
just
in
terms
of
how
this
is
measured
by
the
BLS,
but
it
is
on
track.
It's
already
starting
to
happen.
The
third
step
here
and
the
part
that
I'd
argue
is
going
to
be
most
difficult
and
least
kind
of
guaranteed.
A
Is
that
in
order
to
get
this
CPI
growth
from
you
know,
maybe
four
percent
down
further
to
where
we
really
need
on
our
to
the
feds
Target,
which
is
around
two
two
and
a
half
percent?
Is
we
need
wage
growth
to
moderate?
A
A
A
This
chart
here
you're
just
seeing
the
difference
in
jobs
nationally
from
month
to
month,
over
the
past
year,
I've
updated
this
to
add
November.
So
it's
slightly
different
from
what's
in
your
deck,
but
no
surprises
there.
A
The
we've
continued
to
add
jobs
quite
quickly
here,
and
that
would
normally
be
kind
of
an
unambiguous
positive,
but
we're
in
this
topsy-turvy
world,
where
too
much
of
a
good
thing
is
actually
a
bad
thing,
at
least
when
we're
looking
out,
maybe
a
year
or
so
when
we're
looking
at
getting
those
wage
pressures
under
control
and
last
Friday's
job
report.
This
November
value
here
was
a
little
bit
in
that
vein,
we
added
some
263
000
jobs.
A
We
saw
for
divisions
to
the
prior
month,
and
that
was
just
that's
going
to
be
a
little
bit
concerning
for
the
Federal
Reserve
as
they
work
to
bring
down
some
of
these
pressures,
so
some
areas
of
the
economy
we're
seeing
some
of
this
move
through,
but
this
past
month
jobs
report
was
a
little
bit
concerning
in
that
regard,
positive
and
since
we
don't
have
recession,
it's
negative
in
the
sense
that
it's
going
to
keep
some
of
that
pressure
on
wages.
A
The
other
reservoir
of
strength
here,
first
one
is
labor.
Market
people
have
jobs.
That's
you
know
a
really
important
support
for
consumer
spending.
Second
Reservoir
strength
here
is
how
much
cash
consumers
have.
This
is
similar
to
a
chart.
I
showed
last
time
it's
a
different
visualization
of
some
of
the
same
data
that
we
discussed
previously
about
consumer
balance
sheets.
You
can
see
here
that
the
different
amounts
of
cash
that
are
held
by
different
income
groups
and
at
different
points
in
time
so
going
from
the
top
to
the
bottom.
Here.
A
Those
are
our
different
income,
quintiles
household
income,
the
top
one
150
000
to
500
000
versus
our
lowest
of
under
28
000
in
income,
and
then
we
can
see
this
at
different
points
in
time.
A
The
blue
bars
here
are
prior
to
the
recession
in
2019
Q4,
and
then
we
can
see
kind
of
in
the
middle
of
that
when
we're
getting
some
of
these
stimulus
payments
to
start
come
through,
and
then
you
can
see
what
that's
like
today
in
2022
Q2,
so
last
quarter
two
quarters
ago,
and
what
we
can
really
see
here
is
that
these
balances
are
up
significantly
for
all,
except
for
the
lowest
income
tier
here
and
that's
a
positive
in
the
sense
that
it
means
that
people
have
a
lot
of
resilience.
A
They're
able
to
kind
of
spend
through
these
higher
prices
that
we're
seeing,
but
there's
also
implications
here
of
this
is
what
the
Federal
Reserve
is
really
trying
to
lean
hard
against.
Is
this
demand
that's
out
there
in
the
economy,
just
because
people
have
these
resources
on
the
low
end?
A
Here
we
talked
about
this
briefly
previously
that
under
28
000
dollar
income
bracket,
that's
the
main
area-
that's
shrinking,
but
you
can
see
the
way
these
are
stacked
up
that
as
a
share
of
actual
spending
in
the
economy
is
an
actual
kind
of
dollar
value.
Of
how
much
resources
are
there?
It's
fairly
low
the
implications
on
this
from
a
government
perspective
would
be
more
on
the
expenditures
tide
in
terms
of
utilization
of
Social
Services,
rather
than
a
revenue
side.
A
So
these
are
the
positives
but
I'm
going
to
talk
a
bit
about
the
negatives,
because
there's
definitely
a
lot
of
warning
signs
in
the
economy
right
now
and
those
are
coming
from
some
areas,
but
not
all
areas
of
the
economy.
A
So
this
chart
is
a
lot
to
throw
at
you.
I
know
there
are
a
lot
of
numbers
on
here
and
numbers
are
generally
You
Know
The
Enemy,
when
we
do
these
types
of
presentations.
So
don't
worry
about
reading
this
through
piece
by
piece,
but
what
this
is
showing
is
a
number
of
indicators
that
we
track
in
order
to
kind
of
get
a
advanced
warning
of
recession
risks.
A
These
are
ordered
by
timing,
which
is
really
important
here,
that
middle
bar
of
time
to
recession,
and
so
the
order
kind
of
ranks
in
terms
of
their
relationship
to
the
business
cycle.
The
top
ones
here
tend
to
start
deteriorating
further
in
advance
of
previous
recessions.
A
The
bottom
ones
are
lagging
indicators,
and
so
for
those
you
might
not
see
problems
until
you're
in
the
recession
itself.
This
data
has
been
I,
updated
all
of
this
data
last
Wednesday.
So
if
there's
issues
here,
it's
probably
new
data
that
we've
gotten
in
since
there,
but
it
should
be
pretty
up
to
the
minute
care
I
think
so
many
of
the
so
you're
seeing
kind
of
a
trend
here
right.
A
The
indicators
that
are
higher
up
on
this
chart
are
Reds,
they're
oranges
versus
what
we're
seeing
lower
down
is
more
green
here
and
so
the
higher
risk
ones
here
and
the
ones
that
you're
seeing
in
red
tend
to
be
Financial
in
nature.
So
these
are
tied
to
investor
behavior
and
they're
more
sensitive.
Some
of
these
interest
rate
increases
that
we've
been
seeing
and
oh
I'm
sorry
and
more
sensitive
to
some
of
the
risks
that
we're
seeing
in
financial
markets.
A
That's
and
so
some
of
this
yield
curve
inversion.
We
also
talked
a
bit
previously
about
how
there's
the
stress
that
we're
seeing
in
housing-
that's
definitely
a
warning
sign
here,
but
on
the
other
side
of
this
is
consumer
sentiment.
A
So
this
is
definitely
something
that's
important
to
keep,
as
we
kind
of
you
know,
balance
the
potential
risk
of
the
economy
and
coming
up
with
these,
as
you
come
up
with
these
Revenue
forecasts
here,
but
the
main
reason
that
maybe
they're
not
as
flashing
red,
maybe
not
as
problematic
as
they
would
be
in
the
past,
is
that
consumer
and
business
balance
sheets
generally
look
good.
A
It's
possible
that
these
tightening
lending
standards
might
not
impact
the
economy
as
hard
as
we've.
Seen
in
the
past,.
A
Thanks
so
let's
shift
over
to
Nevada
here,
and
we
can
see
that
these
same
trends
that
we've
been
discussing
at
the
national
level,
they
very
much
hold
true
for
Nevada
as
well.
First
off
and
I'll
move
through
this
a
bit
more
quickly
here
is
that
the
labor
market
is
showing
a
lot
of
strength.
The
red
line
here
is
unemployed
workers,
so
people
that
are
currently
looking
for
a
job
and
haven't
got
one
that
peaked
above
400
000
workers
at
the
height
of
this
pandemic.
A
But
it's
come
in
very
quickly
since
then
blue,
here,
job
openings,
those
are
businesses
that
are
actively
trying
to
hire.
Those
are
people
that
still
say
you
know
we
need
a
person
we're
trying
to
bring
them
on
board.
They're,
not
like
you
know,
maybe
in
the
public
sector,
where
it's
a
budgeting,
maneuver
that
you're
trying
to
keep
this
role
open
their.
A
You
know,
businesses
that
are
out
there
trying
to
add
to
their
payrolls,
and
you
can
see
just
comparing
that
red
line
and
that
blue
line
that
they're
still
about
one
and
a
half
job
openings
for
every
person.
That's
looking
some
of
that
comes
down
to
just
mismatches
between
who's
looking
and
what
jobs
are
out.
There.
We've
definitely
seen
more
pressure
in
some
Industries
than
others,
but
it's
a
point
to
the
strength
of
the
labor
market.
Green
here
is
layoffs.
A
Some
of
this
stress
in
the
economy
is
because
these
labor
pressures
aren't
just
for
today,
they're
also
something
that
businesses
are
eyeing
for
the
next
couple
of
years
and
honestly
longer
term,
as
we
have
some
of
these
demographic
pressures
really
reduce
the
available
labor
in
Nevada
and
nationally
yellow
hair.
Just
to
finish,
this
out
is
quits.
These
are
people
who
are
quitting
their
jobs,
whether
they're
looking
for
something
else
or
just
retiring,
and
this
is
a
little
bit
elevated.
This
is
something
that
we'd
like
to
see
come
down.
A
Just
as
some
of
this
strengthen
the
labor
market
hopefully
gets
a
little
bit
more
normalizes
start
to
come
in
a
little
bit,
but
all
of
these
indicators
here
are
showing
a
very
strong
labor
force
here.
A
The
two
blue
lines
here
are
transfer
payments
to
Federal
governments.
These
are
the
stimulus
payments.
That's
why
we've
got
this
jumping
around
here
and
the
really
big
increases
there.
A
You
can
see
that
that's
normalized,
that's
come
back,
but
it's
still
fairly
strong
and
it's
still
expected
to
stay
fairly
strong
through
the
forecast
here
we
have
this
I
have
this
juxtaposed
against
consumer
prices,
and
the
important
thing
to
see
here
is
that
inversion
that
green
line
moving
above
the
blue
line,
which
means
that
prices
are
rising
faster
than
wages.
A
This
hasn't
really
happened
before
the
inflation
last
period
of
high
inflation
fact
in
the
70s
was
largely
due
to
the
sorry
back
in
the
70s.
Wages
were
keeping
up
with
inflation,
which
was
honestly
kind
of
a
problem
back
then,
because
it
led
to
this
more
entrenched
cycle,
and
so
this
slower
income
growth
than
price
growth
is
a
negative
for
consumers,
because
it's
you
know,
means
they're
spending
more
than
they're
bringing
in
in
terms
of
how
these
are
growing.
A
A
What
you're
seeing
here
on
this
chart
is
domestic
net
migration,
so
these
are
people
that
are
moving
within
the
country
from
one
state
to
another,
either
those
are
people
moving
into
Nevada,
which
is
reflected
in
green
here,
the
inflows
or
there's
people
that
moving
out
of
Nevada
and
that's
orange
here.
The
difference
is
the
blue
bars
and
let
it
draw
your
attention
to
here
is
that
this
has
been
falling
pretty
significantly
over
the
past
year
and
I
would
attribute
this
to
Rising
costs,
just
the
rising
cost
of
housing
in
the
state.
A
It's
having
an
impact
in
terms
of
just
the
population
growth
of
the
state.
This
is
fairly
high
frequency
data.
It's
not
going
to
align
perfectly
with
the
net
migration
data
that
we'll
get
out
of
the
census
in
a
year,
but
it
shows
that
there's
starting
to
be
a
real
impact
from
those
High
housing
costs
in
terms
of
people
moving
into
the
state.
A
Still
positive
and
not
something
that
you
know
a
lot
of
other
states
would
love
to
have
here,
but
it's
something
that
I
think
is
important
to
keep
in
mind
now
this
should
be
temporary.
Like
I
mentioned
earlier,
housing
is
already
in
recession.
Prices
are
already
starting
to
come
down,
is
looking
just
at
single
family
prices
in
the
bad
I
think
they're
already
down
something
like
four
percent
since
June,
so
we're
starting
to
see
some
of
that
progress,
which
will
make
this
a
bit
more
affordable
for
people.
A
Nevada
is
going
to
maintain
its
appeal
from
its
you
know:
tax
system
people
benefit
from
from
its
you
know,
just
amenities
from
the
state,
so
I
do
think
this
is
going
to
turn
around
here,
but
this
is
just
another
reason
that
we're
going
to
get
a
bit
more
of
a
a
little
bit
more
cyclicality
over
the
coming
year.
A
Okay,
finally,
here
the
net
result
of
all
of
this,
of
these
higher
interest
rates,
these
slowing
prices,
but
still
elevated
from
this-
you
know
essentially
from
the
Federal
Reserve
putting
the
brakes
on
the
economy-
is
that
we're
entering
a
new
phase
of
slower
growth
here
up
until
now,
like
we
talked
about
Nevada's
economy
has
been
performing
very
well.
We
can
see
that
Nevada,
despite
suffering
a
really
significant
Blow
from
the
pandemic.
A
It's
moved
ahead
of
where
the
west
and
the
U.S
counterparts
are
currently
that
you
can
see
with
that
blue
line
passing
the
green
line
passing
the
orange
line
here,
but
over
the
next
couple
years
that
net
job
creation
is
pretty
much
flat
that
aligns
with
what
we're
talking
about
from
the
national
perspective.
In
terms
of
this,
you
know
weaker
job
creation,
some
increases
in
layoffs
in
some
sectors
of
the
economies.
A
A
Further
out
towards
the
end
of
this
forecast,
you
could
see
an
optic
and
that's
where
we're
seeing
in
those
interest
rates
to
start
come
back
down.
That's
as
we
move
through
this
current
period,
once
we
get
inflation
under
control
and
we
start
to
see
stronger
growth
as
a
result.
A
So
the
main
question
here-
and
you
know
the
thing
I
think
we're
all
thinking
about-
is
how
we're
going
to
navigate
the
next
couple
of
years.
How
much
of
a
toll
this
is
going
to
take
on
the
state's
economy
in
the
process.
A
No
questions,
okay,
so
for
the
revenue
outlooks.
This
is
the
our
new
forecast
for
sales
tax
collections.
We
expect
continued
strength
through
the
first
quarter
of
the
next
calendar
year.
So
the
next
couple
of
quarters
of
the
forecast
here
and
then
we
expect
that
growth
will
start
to
cool
to
more
typical
rates.
The
main
drivers
here
are
spending
on
goods
and
wage
and
salary
incomes.
A
We've
got
some
positives
here
there
are.
You
know,
inflation
is
a
positive
just
in
terms
of
raising
the
nominal
prices
of
goods
and
then
also
we
have
the
strength
in
the
labor
market.
So
people
have
jobs,
they're
able
to
spend
from
those
incomes
negatives,
though,
of
course,
we
have
some
cooling
demand.
Cooling.
A
We
have
higher
cost
of
credit
people
as
they
take
out
maybe
loans
in
order
to
spend
as
they
pay
their
credit
card
balances,
that's
getting
more
expensive.
We
also
have
some
spent
up
demand.
It's
called
there
are
people
spent
a
lot
on
durable
goods
and
other
Goods
during
the
pandemic
and
the
year
following
because
of
these
significant
balances.
So,
as
some
of
that
you
know
comes
back
as
we
got
some
normalization
from
there,
that
is
going
to
be
a
bit
of
a
negative
here,
so
we
have
some
pluses
and
minuses.
A
Net
result
is
moderately
moderate
growth
through
this
forecast.
This
is
just
the
table
to
reflect
that
as
compared
to
our
never
November
report
we
provided
to
you.
These
are
all
slightly
lower
in
level
terms.
A
A
A
The
main
driver
here
is
National
recreational
Services
spending,
and
our
forecast
for
this
has
not
changed
appreciably
from
our
October
forecast
for
our
November
forecast,
and
so
this
forecast
that
you're
seeing
here
and
what
we
provided
to
you
previously
is
very
similar
to
from
October.
We
have
some,
you
know.
Pent
up
demand
from
vacations
is
fading,
so
we
expect
some
declines
there.
A
We're
also
like
I
talked
about
previously.
The
strong
dollar
is
the
negative
for
international
travel.
A
That
said,
consumers
still
have
a
significant
amount
of
resources,
and
so
that
is
preventing
a
more
severe
disruption
here
and
also,
as
I
imagine,
we'll
hear
about
a
bit
later.
There's
some
high
profile
events
coming
to
the
state,
which
could
also
provide
some
extra
extra
power
to
collections
here,
but
altogether.
This
is
the
forecast,
Behind
These
numbers-
and
this
is
like
I,
said
very
similar
to
what
we
saw
previously
last
month.
A
Thank
you
for
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal,
just
one
question:
when
you
presented
to
us
in
November,
you
were
able
to
give
us
kind
of
on
a
on
a
high
level
basis.
What
percentage
you
ascribe
to
inflation
in
the
different
years,
so
I
think
it
was
eight
percent
in
2022,
4
and
23
and
then
kind
of
mid-low,
2
and
24
have
those
changed
with
this
revised
forecast?
A
No,
those
are
I.
Have
it
in
front
of
me
and
those
are
pretty
much
exactly
what
we're
still
expecting
in
our
November
forecast.
The
main
change
that
I.
Don't
that
we're
done
is
we
are
increasing
our
forecast
for
interest
rates
lightly,
I
think
by
a
quarter
percentage
point
in
the
in
the
Federal
Reserves
terminal
rate,
I.
A
A
You
know
very
strong
motivation
to
start
bringing
this
in.
That
hasn't
had
a
significant
impact
on
our
forecast
here,
it's
more
on
the
margin,
but
that
that
is
the
main
change
and
I
think.
That's
part
of
the
reason
that
our
CPI
numbers
are
similar
to
what
they
were
previously,
because
we
thought
that
a
little
bit
can
change
daily
right.
A
A
Thank
you,
madam
chair
I,
appreciate
you,
as
the
members
of
The
Forum
and
the
chair,
sort
of
going
to
that
agenda
item
and
going
a
little
bit
out
of
order,
because
it
assists
us,
a
staff
that
if
you
had
changes
that
you
wanted
to
make,
then
we
could
be
working
on
those
to
expedite
so
with
that
I
do
need
to
put
on
the
record,
though
Madam
chair,
Steph,
looking
at
it
this
morning,
noticed
that
on
page
25
of
the
report
in
the
last
paragraph,
you
see
economic
forms,
May
1st
2019,
that
should
actually
read
May
4th
2021.
A
So
we
apologize,
but
we
want
to
well
so
staff
will
make
that
correction
for
the
date,
and
we
just
wanted
to
disclose
that
on
the
record
here,
because
this
then
the
report
would
look
different
for
the
final
one,
that
this
body
will
end
up,
approving
and
going
to
the
governor
legislature,
and
so
with
that
we
will
make
that
change
and
then
otherwise
there'll
be
no
changes
in
with
that
Madam
chair.
If
it's
okay
with
you
I'll
just
go
on
to
the
next
agenda
item.
A
Thank
you
for
the
record
Russell
again
in
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
of
the
legislative,
Council
Bureau,
and
so
then,
as
you're
all
aware
of
the
next
agenda
items
item
five
presentation
of
historical
taxable
sales
and
gaming
Market
statistics,
and
this
is
again
just
as
close-
that
all
the
charts
have
been
updated
and
placed
in
Nellis
on
the
Nevada
legislature's
website
for
the
economic
forums
section.
A
So
what
we
have
is
an
additional
month,
September
for
the
taxable
sales,
and
we
have
an
additional
month
of
October's
win
in
November's
collections
for
the
gaming
metrics,
and
so
we
have
updated
all
those
and
placed
them
up
there.
I
don't
intend
to
go
through
them
depending
on.
If
there's
any
questions
or
discussions,
they
can
be
brought
up
to
assist
in
answering
or
addressing
a
question
or
a
statement
and
with
that
Madam
chair.
That
was
only
the
comments
I
wanted
to
make
for
that
agenda
item.
A
So
if
there
are
no
questions
about
that,
okay,
then
with
Madam
chair,
if
it's
okay,
just
to
go
to
the
next
agenda
item,
which
is
agenda,
item
six,
which
is
the
review
and
approval
of
the
major
forecasts
and
so
like
at
the
last
meeting
we
will
have
the
other
people
come
to
the
table
and
we'll
just
progress
through
them
and
then
I
think
Madam
chair
is
what
we've
historically
done,
is
we'll
just
go
through
the
revenue
source
and
for
the
game
and
start
with
gaming
percentage
fees
and
go
to
the
live,
entertainment
tax.
A
That
way
we
can
go
through
and
have
Mr
Lawton
from
The
Gaming
Control
Board
take
care
of
his
two
Revenue
sources,
and
then
he
is
gets
to
leave
the
table
while
the
rest
of
us
stay
here
and
proceed
through
the
rest
of
them.
If
that
works.
For
the
chair
great
one
comment
before
we,
we
begin
with
this
agenda
item
where
we're
here
in
the
forecast.
A
You
don't
have
to
go
back
through
all
of
your
your
forecast
methodology
just
just
give
us
the
the
quick
variables
that
might
have
changed
during
this
last
month
and
with
that
we'll
go
ahead
and
and
turn
to
the
gaming
percentage,
feed
tax,
yeah
and
Madam
chair
I
apologize
well,
the
Mr,
Lawton
and
Mr
gottari
are
coming
to
the
table
that
I'm
not
going
to
go
through
all
of
them.
A
You
have
the
tables
that
are
in
the
packet,
but
I
do
need
to
make
the
comment
with
regards
to
table
one
that
it
begins
on
page
37
of
the
packet
and
rather
me
taking
the
time
to
try
and
put
it
up
on
the
screen.
A
I
would
just
have
you
if
you
turn
to
page
38
you'll,
see,
there's
no
data
in
there
for
the
modified
business
tax
and
then
going
to
the
top
of
page
39
for
the
total
MBT
and
then
for
the
insurance
premium
tax,
and
that's
only
because
normally
what
we
would
have
for
this
December
meeting
is
the
department.
A
Taxation
would
be
able
to
report
the
first
quarter
for
the
insurance
premium
tax
and
the
modified
business
tax,
but
due
to
technical
issues
with
regards
to
the
tax
returns
coming
in
and
being
able
to
get
them
processed,
they
weren't
able
to
report
the
first
quarter
for
FY
23
for
the
mbteen
insurance
premium
tax.
Thus
to
make
the
table
is
Apples
as
apples
as
possible.
We
had
to
remove
the
FY
22
first
quarter,
otherwise
the
table
would
show
that
we
were
significantly
down
here
to
date,
which
would
not
be
statistically
correct.
A
So
then,
the
forecasters
did
not
have
that
first
quarter
for
fy23
to
be
able
to
take
into
consideration
in
doing
their
forecast,
and
so
Madam
sure
I
appreciate
that
you're
used
to
all
the
other
tables
I
do
just
want
to
point
out
that
you
do
have
again
table
eight,
which,
on
green
paper,
which
is
sort
of
the
table,
I
think
we
tend
to
look
at
and
use
for
as
we're
trying
to
go
through
the
decision
making
and
documenting.
A
What's
going
on
so
I
just
wanted
to
point
that
out
and
as
the
rest
of
its
ditto
from
the
November
meeting
in
terms
of
all
the
different
tables
and
then
they're
the
what's
outside
the
packet
is
the
charts
that
we
had
like
last
time
and
unless
there's
any
questions
in
any
of
the
tables
I
don't
plan
on
addressing
each
one.
A
They
are
there
in
case
they're
needed
to
again
to
address
a
specific
question
or
issue,
and
again
with
that,
then
we
can
proceed
with
Mr
lot,
starting
this
often,
if
you'll
give
me
just
a
second
to
get
his
slides
on.
Thank
you.
A
Okay,
I'm
ready
good
morning
good
morning,
chairwoman,
Rosenthal
and
members
of
the
economic
Forum
again
Mike
Lawton
senior
economic
analyst
with
the
Nevada
Gaming
Control
Board.
It's
a
pleasure
to
be
here
today
presenting
to
you,
as
you
can
see
in
the
tables
provided
to
you,
the
Gaming
Control
board's
forecast
for
percentage
fees
were
revised
up
slightly
from
our
the
November
meeting.
This
minor
revision
was
the
result
of
stronger
than
anticipated
slot
Revenue
performance
on
the
Las
Vegas
Strip,
in
addition
to
several
other
markets
in
the
state.
A
Once
this
data
was
incorporated
into
our
models,
the
forecast
produced
slight
increases
to
Total
gaming
win
and
taxable
gaining
gaming
win
throughout
the
forecast
period.
In
turn,
this
also
increased
the
associated
forecasted
totals
for
the
estimated
fee
adjustment
and
percentage
fees
on
taxable
Gaming
revenue.
A
Just
a
real
quick
update
on
October
22
and
it's
its
strength
and
its
weaknesses
wasn't
wasn't
very
weak
to
be
honest
with
you,
but
total
win
was
1.28
billion
dollars
that
increased
4.8
percent
or
59
million
dollars
over
last
October
I
think
I
might
have
alluded
to
in
the
November
meet
the
November
meeting.
There
could
have
been
an
all-time
record:
it
wasn't
our
table.
Games,
Win
came
in
a
little
softer
than
we
had
hoped,
but
we'll
get
to
that
in
later.
A
In
my
forecast,
compared
to
the
pre-pandemic
month
of
October
2019
gaming
win
again
was
off
the
charts
up,
25.3
percent
or
258.9
million
over
2019's
totals
and
again
it
represented
the
20th
consecutive
month
that
Statewide
gaming
win
was
in
excess
of
a
billion
dollars.
A
The
driver
for
this
month's
increase,
surprisingly
to
me,
were
the
state's
combined
markets
outside
the
Las
Vegas
Strip.
They
increased
10.6
percent
or
55.3
million
dollars.
So
almost
the
entire
increase
came
from
those
markets
that
represented
the
largest
increase
for
those
markets
recorded
since
February
of
this
year.
The
combined
markets
have
now
recorded
three
consecutive
monthly
increases,
and
that
is
following
up
for
consecutive
year-over-year
decreases
in
the
period
April
through
July
the
Las
Vegas
Strip.
It
continued
to
set
record
amounts
of
gaming
wind.
A
They
they
won
100
705.8
million
dollars.
However,
it
was
just
a
slight
increase
from
last
October.
It
was
up
0.5
percent
or
3.7
3.7
million
dollars.
Although
the
strips
total
win
was
basically
flat.
Slot
win
was
actually
record
breaking
the
strip
recorded
its
highest
monthly
total
in
slot
win
all
time
ever,
and
that
was
410.4
million
dollars,
and
that
was
due
to
a
coin
in
total
of
5.1
billion
dollars,
which
was
also
an
all-time
record
so
pretty
historic
month
for
the
strip
in
terms
of
slot
win.
A
Obviously,
the
strip
continued
to
benefit
from
another.
Incredibly
strong
sports
and
entertainment
calendar
I
believe
we
had
several
concerts,
residencies
and,
of
course,
multiple
high-profile
sporting
events.
In
terms
of
percentage
fees,
percentage
fees
came
in
at
76.4
million.
They
were
up
6.4
percent
or
4.6
million
dollars.
A
So
we
get
to
my
first
actual
slide
that
this
is
going
to
show
us
our
the
board's
total
wind
forecast
for
the
period
an
FY
22.
We
are
forecasting
for
14.8
billion
dollars,
which
is
an
increase
of
1.7
percent
or
242.6
million
dollars
compared
to
FY
22..
This
is
a
61.6
million
dollar
or
0.4
percent
increase
over
our
November
meeting
in
24.
We
are
forecasting
14.3
billion
dollars
in
total
gaming
wind,
that's
a
decrease
of
three
and
a
half
percent,
or
512.8
million
dollars
in
25.
A
We
are
forecasting
total
gaming
wind
to
decrease
1.5
percent
or
208.9
million
dollars
with
14.1
billion
dollars
in
total
gross
Gaming
revenue
for
the
fiscal
year,
where
we're
at
right
now.
Currently
we
are
up
four
percent
or
243.4
million
dollars.
The
comparison
over
the
last
seven
months
of
the
fiscal
year
is
an
increase
of
33
and
a
half
percent.
The
strip
comparison
is
an
increase
of
57.3
percent.
The
average
growth
required
to
meet
this
forecasted
total
win
amount
is
an
actual
decrease
of
0.01
percent.
A
So
we're
not
asking
for
anything
crazy
here.
I
would
just
like
you
to
know
that
in
three
of
the
next
seven
months,
we'll
be
facing
a
comparison
of
the
second
third
and
fourth
highest
gaming
win
totals
all
time,
so
the
comparisons
are
not
only
difficult,
they're,
historically
difficult.
So
three
tough
comparisons
in
four
months
we
could,
we
could
possibly
beat
you
know
it's
gonna,
be
it's
gonna,
be
tough
to
come
in
flat,
in
my
opinion,
even
with
all
the
good
stuff
that's
going
on
out
there.
A
Our
forecasts
remain
built
on
the
assumption
that
Statewide
gross
Gaming
revenue
will
Peak
during
FY
23
and
the
Catalyst
for
this
growth
will
be
the
Las
Vegas
Strip,
which
is
hosting
various
distinctive
special
events
and
conventions.
During
the
next
16
months,
we've
discussed
those
in
last
November.
The
event
calendar
is
amazing.
A
The
gaming
industry
continues
to
look
for
a
Slowdown
in
consumer
spending,
although
these
Trends
have
not
surfaced
yet
on
the
Las
Vegas
Strip,
the
board
feels
that
it
would
seem
reasonable
to
assume
some
impact
over
time
on
Leisure
spending,
as
these
two
conflicting
variables
converge.
In
our
opinion,
a
realistic
outcome
estimates
that
gross
Gaming
revenue
could
decrease
somewhere
between
Five
Ten
to
Ten
Percent
in
FY,
24
and
25..
Under
this
scenario,
gross
gaming
win
would
still
be
in
a
range
of
between
13
to
19
percent
higher
than
it
was
during
the
pre-pandemic
FY
19..
A
A
In
the
strip
slot
win
was
up,
42.2
million
or
11,
and
a
half
percent
the
markets
outside
of
the
strip
recorded
a
44.4
million
dollar
or
10,
and
a
half
percent
increase
as
well.
So
this
the
slot
went
Statewide,
not
just
the
strip
was
extremely
impressive.
A
In
FY
24
we're
forecasting
9.6
billion
in
slot
win,
that's
a
decrease
of
3.8
percent
or
374.1
million
in
fy25.
We
are
forecasting
slot
1
to
come
in
at
9.5
billion,
which
is
a
decrease
of
1.3
percent
or
126
million
dollars
for
the
fiscal
years.
Thoughts
are
at
up
3.3
percent
or
135
million.
The
comparison
over
the
last
seven
months
of
the
fiscal
year
is
an
increase
of
28
and
a
half
percent,
and
the
strip
comparison
is
an
increase
of
53.1
percent.
Currently
fiscal
year.
A
To
date,
slot
volume
is
is
very
healthy
up,
3.1
percent
off
of
record
levels.
The
average
growth
to
meet
this
forecast
forecasted
slot
win
amount,
is
a
decrease
of
0.3
percent.
As
discussed
last
month,
the
business
activity
the
state
is
experiencing
and
Slots
remain
stable.
However,
as
comparisons
have
become
more
and
more
difficult,
several
markets
growth
rates
have
not
only
moderated
but
have
began
begun
to
show
decreases.
As
a
result,
we
anticipate
that
slot
Revenue
totals
will
begin
to
level
off
and
decline
in
24
and
25,
as
consumers
continue
to
face
mounting
headwinds.
A
A
The
cause
of
this
revision
was
due
to
October
22's
game
and
table
win,
totals
coming
in
softer
than
anticipated,
primarily
due
to
the
Las
Vegas
Strip,
which
had
their
games.
Win,
decreased
11
and
a
half
percent,
or
38.6
million
dollars
and
drop
was
down
14.7
percent
or
368.3
million
dollars.
The
primary
one
of
the
reasons
for
this
this
the
strips
decrease
this
month
was
Bach
raw
and
baccarat
October
for
the
strip
was
a
decrease
of
30
percent
or
27.9
million,
and
volumes
were
down
17.8
percent
or
109.4
million
dollars.
A
So
once
again,
baccarat
you
know
showed
what
damage
it
can
do.
So
in
fy24
we
are
forecasting
game
and
table
wind
to
be
at
4.7
billion.
That's
a
decrease
of
2.9
percent
or
138.8
million
in
fy25.
We
are
forecasting
game
and
table
wind
to
Total
4.6
billion.
That's
a
decrease
of
1.8
percent
or
83
million
dollars
for
the
fiscal
year.
Games
are
up
a
solid
five
and
a
half
percent
or
108.4
million.
A
The
comparison
over
the
last
seven
months
of
the
fiscal
year
is
an
increase
of
45.5
percent
and
the
strips
comp
is
an
increase
of
62.9
percent.
Currently
games
volume,
it's
healthy,
it's
up,
1.2
percent
and
the
average
growth
to
meet
our
forecasted
game
and
table
win
amount
is
an
increase
of
0.6
percent.
A
As
I
discussed
in
November
the
game
and
table
wind
figure
in
FY
22
was
six
percent
above
the
previous
Peak,
which
was
an
fy14
which
was
four
4.4
billion
dollars.
Although
our
game
and
table
win
amounts
aren't
quite
as
robust
as
our
slot
win
totals
game.
Win
amounts
are
still
very
impressive
when
you
consider
the
fact
that
a
key
component
of
table
game
win,
which
is
Baccarat,
is
not
at
record
levels
and,
of
course
that's
due
to
that
game's
Reliance
on
international
players
from
the
Far
East.
A
However,
at
this
time,
fiscal
year
to
date,
baccarat
is
currently
up
11
and
a
half
percent
or
54.1
million
dollars
and
volumes
are
up.
3.4
percent
or
108.5
million
dollars.
Baccarat
this
fiscal
year
so
far
has
been
benefited
from
an
increased
hold
percentage
fiscal
year
to
date,
it's
sitting
at
15.8
percent
versus
14.6
percent.
A
At
this
time
last
year
on
the
non-bakarov
side
of
table
game
win
it's
healthy
as
well
up
3.6
percent
or
54.3
million
dollars,
and
non-baqarah
drop
is
up
0.5
or
58.4
million
dollars
again
benefiting
from
an
increased
hold
percentage
fiscal
year
date
of
14.2
versus
13.8
percent,
similar
to
slot
win
the
activity
the
state
is
experiencing
in
game
and
table.
A
Lastly,
get
getting
to
what
everyone
is
here
for
today,
percentage
fees
are
23
fiscal
year.
23
percentage
fee
forecast
we're
projecting
a
decrease
of
2.8
percent
or
27.4
million
dollars,
with
936.8
million
in
total
collections.
That
is
up
8.3
from
our
initial
projection
of
928.5
million
in
collections
in
November.
The
primary
cause
for
this
revision
is
an
increase
to
the
estimated
fee
adjustment
fiscal
year
to
date,
percentage
fee
collections,
total
410.9
million
and
they're
basically
flat
down
just
122
000.
At
this
point.
A
As
for
the
two
components
of
percentage
fees,
percentage
fees
on
taxable
Gaming
revenue,
they
currently
total
398.3
million,
they
are
up
three
percent
or
11.7
million,
and
then
the
estimated
fee
adjustment
collections
are
currently
sitting
at
3.6
million
and
are
down
11.8
million
or
76.4
percent.
The
average
growth
needed
to
meet
this
forecast
to
achieve
the
936.8
million
is
a
decrease
of
4.8
percent.
A
Meanwhile,
the
growth
over
the
last
seven
months
of
FY
22
compared
to
the
last
seven
months
of
FY
21,
is
an
increase
of
23.5
percent,
as
discussed
in
November,
the
EFA
collections
totaled
33.7
million
dollars
last
year.
So
that
makes
for
a
difficult
comparison
for
us
this
fiscal
year
and,
as
you
know,
the
EFA
is
the
difference
between
the
amount
of
tax
due
on
taxable
gross
Gaming
revenue
for
the
current
month,
less
the
amount
of
tax
paid
on
taxable
gross
gaining
revenue
from
three
months
prior.
A
So
due
to
the
record
levels
of
Gaming
revenue
growth,
the
state
recorded
in
FY
22
EFA
collections
have
been
a
positive
contributor
to
the
State's
record
level
of
percentage
fee
collections.
However,
as
Gaming
revenue
totals
begin
to
moderate
and
slightly
decrease,
as
we
have
forecasted
EFA
totals
are
expected
to
decrease
as
well.
A
So
in
our
forecast,
the
decrease
that
we
are
presenting
to
you
today
in
percentage
fees,
is
entirely
due
to
the
forecasted
decrease
in
EFA
collections.
33.7
Million
last
year,
we've
upped
that
to
5.4
million
this
year
and
that's
a
decrease
of
28.3
million
dollars,
which
is
pretty
much
the
entire
decrease
that
we're
forecasting
in
FY
24.
We
are
forecasting
a
5.4
percent
decrease
in
percentage
fees,
which
is
50.9
million
dollars,
and
an
885.9
million
dollar
total
four
percentage
fee
collections
in
24
and
then
in
25.
A
A
Thank
you,
Mr
Lawton
you're
welcome
next,
we'll
we'll
hear
from
Jason
katori
gotari
from
the
executive
budget
office.
Thank
you,
chair
Rosenthal
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
Economist
Governor's
finance
office,
starting
on
slide
three.
My
gaming
percentage
fee
forecast
relies
heavily
on
expected
gaming
volume
and
gaming
when
I
separated
out
slots
block,
rot
and
everything
else
for
Statewide
gaming
volume.
When
discussing
the
broader
economy,
consumer
confidence
remains
relatively
low
and
interest
rates
remain
relatively
High.
However,
jobs
continue
to
be
added
and
the
unemployment
rate
remains
relatively
low.
A
A
A
Mr
ginden,
thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Russell
getting
with
the
fiscal
analysis
Division
and
you
have
the
fiscal
divisions
packet
available
to
you
and
I
just
wanted
to
bring
up
the
one
slide.
I
think
the
provide
the
comments
for
the
fiscal
divisions
forecast,
and
so
that
would
be
table
1C,
that's
on
page
30
of
the
packet.
A
If
you
want
to
look
at
the
printed,
but
I
have
it
up
here
on
the
screen,
and
so
what
this
does
is
it
shows
you
the
difference
between
the
December
forecast,
that's
highlighted
in
yellow
and
the
November
forecast,
that's
in
the
green
highlight
and
then
in
the
orange
below
is
the
difference
and,
as
you
may
recall,
at
last
meeting
that
I
had
concerns
about
the
effective
tax
rate
and.
B
So
I
had
to
make
adjustments
there,
but
before
I
get
into
the
details
of
it
that
standing
behind
sort
of
the
fiscal
divisions
forecast
for
the
revenues
today,
as
we
I'm
not
going
to
go
through
then,
but
at
the
front
of.
B
C
A
Our
outlook
for
the
key
economic
variables-
and
if
you
look
at
those,
you
really
don't
see
any
difference
between
the
forecast,
because
we
really
didn't
change.
We
did
get
an
additional
month
of
the
employment
numbers,
but
no
more
quarters
of
the
wages
or
personal
income,
but
we
really
didn't
have
any
information
to
force
us
to
change
things
significantly
with
regards
to
employment,
wages,
personal
income,
and,
in
fact,
if
you
look
at
Moody's
forecasts
and
those
charts
for
Nevada
for
those
same
components,
they
did
not
also,
they
also
did
not
change
their
Outlook
much.
A
So
that's
really
in
a
sense.
The
at
the
economic
Outlook
that
we're
driving
to
our
revenue
forecast
is
pretty
much
the
same
for
fiscal
for
this
December
forecast
versus
November.
So
it's
mainly
the
reaction
is
looking
at
if
you
get
another
month
of
the
the
tax
or
we
got
this
additional
month
of
visitors
for
October,
which
is
better
than
what
I
thought
it
was
going
to
be
when
I
was
looking
at
forecasting
that,
and
so
that's
the
construct
that
lays
behind
it.
A
So
then,
then,
again
coming
back
to
the
percentage
fees,
you
can
see
that
Mr
Lawton's
already
covered
all
the
numbers
well
in
terms
of
we
have
the
additional
month
and
what
it
means.
So
that's
when
I
got
that
number
I
ended
up
in
FY
23
revising
up
the
slot
win
a
little
bit
for
FY
23,
but
then
not
much
for
24
and
25
as
you're.
A
Looking
here
at
the
orange
then
because
gaming
and
then
just
realizing
I
think
I
had
I
was
way
too
optimistic
on
the
hold
percentages
and
where
they
would
be
and
so
pulled
those
back
on
the
game
side
as
well
as
pulled
back
on
the
drop
a
little
bit.
So
that
brings
the
the
games.
Win
forecast
down
over
all
three
years
that
you
can
see
here
and
and
so
then
there's
in
that
first
year
the
slot
will
increase
Nets
out
a
little
against
the
games
win.
A
But
then,
where
you
see
is
the
taxable
gain,
I
mean
revenue
changing
and-
and
this
is
I'll
get
into
the
effective
tax
rate,
but
because
of
Mr
Lawton,
giving
consideration
to
the
statement.
I
made
it
to
last
meeting.
He
went
and
compiled
some
numbers
and
did
some
analysis
and
provided
that
to
me
to
look
at
what
went
on
in
FY
22
in
terms
of
the
6.59
percent
tax
rate,
but
as
when
we
were
driving
14,
you
know
million
excuse
me
14
billion
through
the
tgr
and
so
I.
That
made
me
realize.
A
D
I
wasn't
thinking
about
how
the
the
the
tgr
percentage
fees
component
works
with
regards
to
an
adjustment
we
had
to
do
just
with
the
pandemic
and
what
it
caused
for
how
those
numbers
were
reported.
D
Well
then,
looking
at
that
realizing
seeing
the
October
number
of
my
ratio
tgr
to
win
before
it
was
too
high
for
the
fy23.
So
you
can
see
I've
lowered
that
by
almost
a
half
a
percentage
Point.
So
that's
why
you
see
the
tgr
coming
down
and
then
realizing
that
it'll
sort
of
go
down
a
little
bit
in
FY
24
and
then
come
back
up
a
little
bit
in
fy25.
So
it's
sort
of
the
same
pattern
as
last
forecast.
D
I
just
had
to
pull
the
path
down
because
it
was
just
too
optimistic
and
then
the
October
number
real
what
what
I
would
have
to
average
over
the
last
seven
months
of
the
fiscal
year,
I
just
thought
was
unrealist,
so
that's
their
flight,
23
chains
for
the
ratio
and
then
you
can
see
I
had
to
bring
the
average
effective
tax
rate
down
because
the
6.62
6.63
and
the
6.64
that
I
had
in
November.
They
were
just
unrealistic.
D
Given
the
the
analysis
and
the
data
that
Mr
Lawton
was
able
to
provide
me
and
work
through,
so
I
appreciate
him
being
able
to
do
that.
A
Thus,
you
know
I
still
have
sort
of
the
similar
pattern
that
I
do
believe.
The
average
rate
does
have
to
come
up
as
you
increase
taxable
Gaming
revenue-
oh
that's
just
too
high.
So
because
of
that,
then
you
can
see.
We
basically
are
lowering
the
forecast
down
by
approximately
11
million
in
the
first
year,
FY
23
and
is
Mr
Lawton
stated
you
can
you
can
see
now
our
forecast
is.
E
A
Fees
from
tgr
being
offset
by
the
change
in
the
effect
just
as
Mr
Lawton's
forecast,
and
so
we
have
a
little
slightly
different
growth
in
EFA.
But
we
end
up
standing
close
to
the
same
place
in
terms
of.
F
7.2
million
and
then
continuing
out
in
FY
2025.
It
lowers
it
by
approximately
7.5
million
looking
at
table
light
and
with
that
Madam
chair.
Those
were
the
statements
that
I
wanted
to
make
with
regards
to
the
fiscal
divisions,
NHC
forecast
and
the
reason
for
the
changes
compared
to
the
one
percent
to
this
body
in
November.
F
So
on
page
30
of
the
fiscal
analysis,
divisions
packet,
it
helps
to
be
able
to
see
the
components
right,
so
you've
got
the
percentage
fee,
tgr
the
percentage
fee,
EFA
and
then
the
total,
because
if
we
just
look
at
table
eight
and
you
see
the
percentage
changes
that
really
doesn't
tell
you
the
story
in
terms
of
a
mindset
on
you
know
what
you're
assuming
for
growth,
especially
in
this
environment,
where
we've
had
you
know
record
gaming
win
for
20
months
now,
so
it's
very
clear,
I
think
here
what
the
fiscal
analysis
divisions
numbers
are.
F
I
wondered
if
we
could
get
some
kind
of
a
sense
from
from
the
agency
in
the
budget
office,
where
your
I
guess
percentage
fee,
tgr
percentages
are
and
then,
if
you
are
in
in
line
with
fiscal,
then
on
the
EFA,
it
sounds
like
the
agency
in
fiscalar
just
to
get
us
an
underlying
growth
rate
of
what
you're,
assuming
year
by
year.
F
Hopefully
that's
not
too
confusing.
So
we'll
start
with
Mr
Lawton
for
the
record
again:
Mike
Lawton
senior
economic
analyst
with
the
Nevada
Gaming
Control
Board,
a
member
Rosenthal
I.
Believe
you
want
to
know
what
my
tgr
to
win
rate
forecast
is
I'll
start
with
that
what
the
percentage
vtgr
growth
is
year
to
year
to
compare
to
so
in
the
fiscal
on
page
30,
the
the
yellow
items
percentage
fee
change
year
ago,
the
yellow
items
on
the
bottom
part
of
their
table:
okay,
yeah
so
tgr
on
percentage
fees,
growth
rates.
F
F
F
Do
you
want
the
EFA
forecasts
as
well?
Yes
or
just
an
indication
if
it's
similar
to
fiscals?
F
Okay,
whatever
it's
easiest
EFA
in
FY
23
is
5.4
million
dollars,
it's
a
decrease
of
close
to
90
percent
compared
to
the
33.7
million
in
FY
22..
F
F
Does
that
answer
your
question?
Yes,
thank
you.
So,
there's
quite
a
bit
of
disparity
between
your
forecast
and
fiscals,
both
in
the
growth
rates
and
the
resulting
tgr,
as
well
as
the
percentage
fee
I'm
just
looking
at
the
the
forecast
period,
And
there's
some
pretty
wide
variances,
and
so
in
order
to
come
up
with
logical
forecasts.
That
makes
sense
in
terms
of
what
we
think
is
going
to
happen
from
a
growth
perspective
just
have
to
kind
of
peel
the
onion
a
little
bit
to
get
to
some
of
those
numbers.
F
So
if
so,
there
might
be
some
follow-up
questions,
but
if
we
could
maybe
just
turn
to
the
budget
office,
if
you
could
walk
through
the
same
thing
for
your
forecast.
F
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
economist,
the
governor's
finance
office
I,
have
my
total
gross
revenue
to
win
ratios
in
fiscal
year.
23
is
95.9
percent
and
then
picking
up
to
96
in
fiscal
year,
24
and
25.,
and
then
for
the
estimated
fee.
Adjustments
I
have
them
declining
by
8.3
million
in
fiscal
year,
23.
F
F
And
Madam
chair
Russell
again
for
the
record
just
that
this
is
the
difficult
Revenue
Source
because
of
the
statutory
structure
for
the
tax,
and
so
yes,
since
we're
the
fiscal
division,
has
the
growth
occurring
in
24
and
25
again
for
us,
it's
because
of
the
two
big
special
events
that
will
be
in
24,
but
then
with
the
tgr
growing,
then
the
EFA
should
probably
be
net
positive
versus,
if,
like
for
GF,
gfo
and
GCB
having
if
tgr
declines
in
the
fa
should
go
down.
F
You
can
get
strange
times
when
new
properties
open
and
all
that,
but
generally
the
tgr
growth
in
the
then
the
delta
in
terms
of
the
change
of
the
or
the
net
EFA.
They
should
move
in
the
same
direction
and
I'm
sure
they're.
All
aware
of
that,
but
I
just
thought
I'd
point
out
that,
and
but
that
is
the
difficult
thing
and
possibly
for
the
form
to
reconcile
that
fiscal's
got
growth,
so
the
EFA
is
net
positive,
but
it
backs
off
to
down.
F
You
can
see
it's
less,
it's
a
smaller
positive
and
25,
because
there's
less
growth
versus
when
you've
had
it
declining.
Then
there
should
be
a
negative
EFA
and
that's
a
hard
thing
to
reconcile
by
looking
at
them.
So
my
I
was
going
back
to
comments
made
by
Mr
Lawton
at
the
November
meeting
that
in
their
mind,
ggr
peaks
in
23
and
starts
to
come
off,
I
mean
it's
been
an
incredible
run
and
they
would
still
be
very
elevated
levels.
Just
you
know
hard
to
continue
to
grow
off
historical
records.
F
F
That's
what
I
was
trying
to
get
at
that
that
underlying
growth,
so
that
we
could
rationalize
what
we
think
the
direction
of
that
growth
you
know
is
going
to
be
and
Mr
ginden.
You
just
mentioned.
You
know
24
being
strong
on
some
of
the
special
events,
but
it's
it's
growth
over
23,
which
has
very
significant
special
events
as
well.
So
just
make
that
comment.
F
No
and
that's
a
very
good
observation,
Madam
chair
and
acknowledge
it
being
the
one
that
has
the
growth
occurring
and
so
two
events
May
in
two
months,
doesn't
12
months
make
as
a
fiscal
year
but
I
guess
as
I
was
looking
at.
F
But
it
doesn't
mean
there
can't
be
other
events,
because
just
possibly
all
this
had
a
chance
to
watch
the
the
Pac-12
championship
at
Allegiant.
Also
that
the
Notre
Dame
played
Utah
in
the
Shamrock
classic,
so
I
think
you're
going
to
see
those
types
of
things
being
coming
to
Vegas
and
I.
Think
that's!
F
Maybe
what
drove
some
of
the
record
numbers
that
we're
seeing
in
23
and
I
don't
expect
that
they
won't
be
able
to
bring
those
kinds
of
events,
because
those
facilities
are
there
and
they'll
want
to
put
things
in
them
and
so
yeah.
It
would
could
have
been
a
little
optimistic
that,
because
to
the
chair's
Point
you're
you're
pushing
against
hey
you
had
that
event
this
year
and
you
had
that
event
last
year.
So
how
do
you
get
that
much
growth?
F
That's
a
fair
observation,
but
I
just
think
you
know,
there's
got
to
inflation,
will
back
off,
but
there's
still
got
to
be
a
little
bit
of
inflation
in
some
of
the
growth
in
24
and
25,
not
the
the
seven
or
eight
that
we're
seeing
now,
but
that
two
or
three
percent
range
so
I
still
think
there
could
be
some
nominal
growth
in
the
wind
and
thus
the
collections
that
that's
sort
of
where
I
got
to,
but
clearly
could
I
be
a
little
overly
optimistic
in
terms
of
what's
Happening,
yeah,
possibly
I.
F
Think
that's
a
fair
critique,
Madam
chair.
Thank
you
for
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal.
Just
one
more
question:
do
we
have
year
today
whether
that's
September
October
growth
over
the
prior
year
in
the
percentage
fee,
tgr.
F
Adam
chair,
if
you
look
at
page
29,
so
if
you
just
flip
one
back
I
think
to
answer
your
question
on
table
1B
on
page
29,
Mr
a
lot
with
room,
but
you'll
see
there
for
each
of
the
components.
There's
the
there's
fiscal
year
today
to
the
first
five
months,
showing
you
what
the
dollar
amounts
were
and
then
below
that
are
the
growth
rates
and
then
down
below
would
be
what
the
last
seven
months
are
and
then
what
the
fiscals
forecasts
would
have
to
be.
Thank
you
to
hit
the
forecast
perfect.
Thank
you.
F
I,
don't
know
that
I
have
a
question
I
just
make
the
the
way
sort
of
the
way
I
looks
to
me
right
now
and
I
I.
Just
wonder
if
we
were
to
assume
that
the
agencies
prediction
for
the
23
years,
correct
I,
don't
feel
quite
as
good
about
backing
off
as
much
as
they
did
in
the
24
year
say.
Maybe
I
would
go
more
with
what
the
budgets
budget's
looking
at
the
907
then
slight
growth
for
the
next
year
up
to
935
also
with
the
budget.
F
Do
we
need
to
restate
just
so
Madam
chair,
so
the
motion
was
to
go
with
budget
with
all
three
years
or
agency
the
first
year
again,
so
that
would
be
amateur.
Then
the
motion
would
be
to
go
with
agencies
the
the
936.832
for
fy23
and
then
go
with
the
budgets
907.862
for
FY,
2,
2024
and
then
budgets
for
fy25
of
935
0.883
Mr
Mr
Levitt
did
I
get
your
motion
correct.
That's
correct!
Okay!
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
allowing
me
to
clarify
the
motion.
Do
we
have
a
second.
F
Okay,
so
the
next
Revenue
source
to
to
walk
through
is
the
live,
entertainment
tax
and
we'll
go
and
start
again
with
Mr
Lawton.
F
Get
to
my
slide,
okay,
the
primary
reasons
for
this
upward
revision
was
a
stronger
than
anticipated
October
that
recorded
live
entertainment,
tax
collections
of
10.4
million
dollars,
which
was
an
11.1
percent,
or
one
million
dollar
increase
from
last
October.
Additionally,
as
it
always
seems
to
be
the
case,
a
new
show
was
announced
subsequent
to
our
last
meeting,
which
will
run
in
FY,
23
and
24,
and
not
to
mention
that
show
was
extended
even
longer,
but
it's
after
I've
submitted
my
forecast
for
this
meeting.
F
So
that's
just
the
nature
of
the
Beast
very
difficult
tax
to
forecast
fiscal
year
to
date,
let
collections
total
39.2
million
dollars
and
are
up
22
and
a
half
percent
or
7.2
million
dollars
for
FY
23.
We
are
projecting
let
to
increase
29.4
percent
or
29.2
million
dollars
with
128.6
million
in
collections.
This
represents
a
2.9,
Million
dollar
or
2.3
percent
increase
from
our
November
meeting
the
growth
over
the
last
eight
months
of
FY
22
compared
to
the
last
eight
months
of
FY
21,
is
an
increase
of
843.7
percent.
F
The
average
growth
required
over
the
last
eight
months
of
FY
23
to
achieve
this
forecast
is
a
very
strong
increase
of
32.8
percent
in
FY
24.
We
are
forecasting
let
to
decrease
slightly
two
percent
or
2.6
million
dollars
with
126
million
dollars
in
collections
and
then
in
25.
We
are
forecasting
a
decrease
of
4.9
percent
or
6.2
million
dollars
with
119.9
million
dollars
in
collections.
The
assumptions
used
in
this
forecast
have
not
changed
since
November,
which
include
the
following.
F
The
let
forecast
models
are
built
on
the
assumption
that
an
FY
23
growth
will
be
achieved
by
increased
showroom
capacity
occupancy
as
a
result
of
improved
business,
travel,
lifting
midweek
business
levels.
Let
sales
have
trailed
gross
Gaming
revenue,
growth,
post
pandemic
as
you've
noted,
and
have
not
peaked
due
to
the
lag
and
business
travel
compared
to
that
of
leisure
travel.
Midweek
group
convention
business
is
a
key
component
to
let
and
its
recovery
is
crucial
for
Production
shows
and
headliners.
F
These
performances
include
multiple
shows
throughout
the
week
and
require
large
venues
to
be
at
maximum
capacity
in
order
to
be
profitable.
Additional
incremental
growth
in
FY
23
is
being
forecasted
due
to
new
programming
on
the
Las
Vegas
Strip
at
multiple
properties,
including
the
park
MGM,
the
wind
Las
Vegas,
the
Venetian
and
Caesars
moving
into
FY,
24
and
25.
F
Thank
you
very
much.
Thank
you,
chair
Rosenthal
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch
Economist
for
the
Governor's
finance
office,
referencing
slide.
7
visitation
is
one
of
my
main
drivers
for
both
the
gaming
and
non-gaming
side
of
let
my
forecast
assumes
increased
visitation
in
the
fourth
quarter
of
calendar
year
22
compared
to
the
same
period
in
21..
My
forecast
also
assumes
increased
growth
in
the
number
of
local
residents
who
spend
money
on
entertainment
because
of
the
tight
labor
market
and
growth
in
wages
that
we're
seeing
recently
and
moving
forward.
F
Furthermore,
the
expectation
is
that
the
overall
trend
in
Las
Vegas
visitation
continues
to
increase
throughout
the
forecast
period,
which
is
expected
to
continue
if
people
have
disposable
income
fiscal
year
to
date
through
October,
this
Revenue
source
is
up
21
or
nearly
7
million.
Over
the
year
today
amount
collected
last
year.
F
F
F
Thank
you
very
much.
Next,
we'll
turn
to
Mr
Tower,
with
the
presentation
of
the
forecast
for
the
fiscal
analysis,
division.
F
F
F
What
you
see
the
slight
differences
between
our
November
14th
and
December
5th
forecast
are
mainly
due
to
drivers
like
inflation
and
visitor
forecast,
which,
as
Miss
Mandel
of
Moody's
Analytics,
has
pointed
out.
These
inflation
forecasts,
for
example,
have
not
really
changed
they're
just
in
the
decimal
points,
some
slight
adjustments
to
the
to
the
most
recent
actuals.
F
The
same
is
true
for
visitor
forecast
and
we
simply
re-ran
our
model
with
these
updated
inflation
and
visitor
numbers
and
the
results
you
see
in
the
table
so
which
are
really
very
slight
difference
differences
only
from
the
November
14th
forecast.
So
we
end
up
forecasting
for
fiscal
year.
2023
the
gaming
part
of
the
live
entertainment,
tax
of
180
million
dollars,
297
thousand
dollars;
oh
sorry,
18
million
297
000
for
fiscal
year,
2024
130
million
293
dollars
and
for
fiscal
year
2025.
F
Maybe
if
I
could
two
more
comments,
as
Mr
Lawton
has
pointed
out,
we
also
looked
at
the
actuals
coming
in
the
last
ones,
are
10.4
million
referenced
and
we
did
not
feel
the
need
to
make
an
adjustment
to
our
forecast,
because
that
is
exactly
within
the
range
of
what
our
forecast
anticipated.
F
So
so
the
the
the
latest
data
point
in
terms
of
revenues
did
not
incline
us
to
to
make
any
changes
and
then
maybe
a
final
comment
which
I
just
to
put
our
forecast
into
perspective,
which
I
made
during
the
last
meeting
already
the
chart
you
see
up
there,
which
is
on
fiscal's
meeting
page
on
page
51,
shows
that
we're
not
projecting
an
increase
in
dollar
span
per
visit
tone
and
just
a
deflation-adjusted
base
for
gaming
life
entertainment.
As
you
can
see
in
the
in
the
red
graph
up
there.
F
F
So
this
is
Linda
Rosenthal
for
the
record
again
just
trying
to
reconcile
this
back
to
what
we
just
went
through
on
the
the
percentage
fee
tax.
So
you
would
think
ggr
and
lat
for
gaming,
someone
go
hand
in
hand
right.
So
the
underlying
assumptions
of
a
peak
in
23
and
then
some
moderation
in
24
and
25,
just
given
how
extreme
the
the
results
have
been
in
the
last
20
months
seems
to
hold
with
agencies
forecast.
Then
the
you
know
fiscal
and
and
budget.
F
Assumes
a
peak
in
23
and
then
moderation
and
other
two
forecasts
that
assume,
starting
at
a
lower
spot,
that
continuing
continued
growth
that
am
I
missing
something
and
for
the
record
again
chair,
Rosenthal,
Mike,
Lawton,
Nevada,
game
control,
board,
yeah
I
think
they
do
go
hand
in
hand,
I.
Think
the
the
obvious
reason.
F
Let
is
more
robust
than
the
gaming
percentage
fees
in
FY
23
is
we
haven't
peaked?
You
know
it
takes
a
while
to
ramp
up
these
shows
and
again.
The
midweek
business
is
a
huge
driver
for
this
and
you
you
follow
the
stats
on
midweek.
It's
still
lagging
it's
coming
back
and
that's
going
to
help
Drive
the
forecast,
along
with
some
incredibly
amazing
new
shows.
You
know:
Garth
Brooks,
Adele,
Garth
Brooks
extended
his
stay,
Maroon
5
and
the
list
goes
on
and
on
right
and
so
I'm.
F
That's
why
I'm
comfortable
with
FY
23.
I
didn't
bring
it
down
to
too
much
in
fy24,
but
again
it
there's,
there's
known
programming
versus
unknown
programming,
and
then
on
top
of
that
we
have
these
clouds
that
we
don't
know
what
the
impact
is
going
to
be.
But
obviously
the
board
has
taken
a
position
that
these
clouds
are
going
to
interrupt.
Some
of
this
trajectory
that
we're
on
so
yeah
I
would
say
the
forecast
for
percentage
fees
and
let
the
the
thought
process
was
the
same.
F
Someone
like
to
propose
motion
or
discuss
their
thoughts,
this
one's
kind
of
a
difficult
one
I
mean.
Let
me
just
throw
out
my
thought
about
it
and
see
what
there
is
my
feeling
is
that
if
I,
if
we
go,
go
with
Agency
for
the
first
two
years,
I'm
not
don't
quite
want
to
go
down
as
much
as
they
did
for
the
third
year,
so
go
to
budget
for
the
third
year
so
agency,
the
first
two
and
budget
for
the
third
I,
don't
know
that's
sort
of
the
way
I
was
looking
at
it.
F
On
for
Lewis,
I
was
also
sort
of
going
a
lot
of
interrupt
you
today,
but
again,
I
was
sort
of
thinking
this
similar
because
I
think
there's
a
lot
of
stuff,
I
think
probably
in
the
works
for
2025,
but
it's
too
early
to
even
imagine
and
then
I
keep
kind
of
thinking
about
the
recovery
even
further
of
the
convention
business
and
we'll
sort
of
see
how
that
goes.
This
coming
year,
I
got
guessed,
but
so
I
kind
of
had
the
similar
thoughts
to
Marvin.
F
Hi
Vincent
Zahn
for
the
record
could
I
have
fiscal
talk
a
little
bit
about
the
precipitous
drop
in
the
25
forecast?
Is
it
just
tough
comparisons?
Is
there
something
assumed
in
there
sure
thank
you
for
the
question
Christian
tower
for
the
record,
with
the
fiscal
analysis
division
so
in
line
with
the
percentage
fee
forecast,
Mr
Guinea
presented,
we
also
in
in
relation
to
the
gaming
part
of
the
let
we
also
have
a
boost
due
to
the
special
events.
A
Formula
One
and
Super
Bowl,
and
we
back
kind
of
backed
that
out
again
into
in
fiscal
year
2025,
and
that
explains
the
decrease
in
increase
between
fiscal
year.
2024
and
25.
hope
that
answers
your
question.
F
Thoughts
very
much
aligned
with
the
comments
have
been
made
so
far
with
the
exception
of
I
mean
it
just
I
know,
there's
known
and
unknown
events
and
it's
hard
to
forecast
attacks
on
unknown
items,
but
Vegas
always
seems
to
find
a
way
to
to
bring
the
shows
and
the
events
to
to
town
to
drive
this
higher.
F
So
my
only
concern
is
a
decline
in
25,
even
though
it's
a
very
small
decline
over
what
you
proposed
Mr
Levitt,
and
we
and
we're
not
married
just
for
the
new
members-
we're
not
married
to
the
forecast
on
this
page.
We
can
also
set
our
own
forecast
it
can
it
can
be
our
own
number
as
well,
so
that
would
be
that'd,
be
my
two
cents
to
add
to
the
consideration.
A
H
H
H
Okay
good
morning
for
the
record
Erica
Scott,
with
economists
with
the
taxation
Department
we'll
start
we'll
go
through
to
the
live
entertainment
non
non-gaming
on
slide
three,
since
the
last
Forum
meeting
I
spent
a
bit
more
time
with
that
forecast
and
I
did
add
a
bit
more
I
felt.
My
model
was
a
little
bit
dependent
on
historic.
Instead
of
items
we
knew
were
going
to
be
occurring
in
the
upcoming
fiscal
year.
Put
more
weight
onto
those,
so
I
did
also
pulling
the
fiscal
year
23.
H
So
far,
we've
seen
some
incredible
growth.
Looking
at
those
figures
for
this
first
quarter
we're
at
19
million
for
live
entertainment,
tax,
non-gaming
Which
is
higher
than
I
mean
expected.
So
I've
padded
up
my
forecast
by
15
in
fiscal
23,
another
30
in
fiscal
30
in
fiscal
year
24.
H
and
another
15
fiscal
year,
25
from
my
last
numbers
just
to
acknowledge
the
growth
that
we're
seeing
in
this
tax
type.
So
with
that,
it
brings
us
to.
A
For
fiscal
year,
23
that
solid
growth
and
then
the
big
uptick
in
fiscal
year,
24
due
to
large
events
known
like
Super,
Bowl
and
formula
one
and
then
leveling
out
in
fiscal
year,
25.
So
on
slide.
Four.
We
can
see
the
year
over
year
the
growth
from
our
known
historic
figures.
So.
H
What
that
looks
like
is
that
Revenue
collected
in
FY
23
would
see
the
growth
of
24
from
fiscal
year.
22
then
fiscal
year
24
would
see
16
per
percent
growth
off
of
that
coming
off
of
fiscal
year
23
and
then
the
leveling
out
in
fiscal
year,
25
of
a
dip
of
negative
nine
percent.
However,
that's
still
those
figures
are
still
record
before
you
know,
prior
to
fiscal
year,
22
we're
still
seeing
these
strong,
strong
figures
and
dollar
amounts
in.
H
H
Yes,
thank
you,
chair
I
did
increase
that
partly
due
to
Super
Bowl,
but
also
other
well-known
events
that
will
be
occurring
as
well.
Okay,
so
not
all
of
the
weight
is
due
to
Super
mold,
that's
just
an
example,
so
it's
not
a
event
specific
forecast
and
you
sum
the
parts
it's
it's
just
a
broader
generalization
about.
What's
going
on,
okay,
correct!
Thank
you
very
much.
H
Okay!
Thank
you!
Mr
cortari!
Thank
you.
Madam
chair
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branchconomist,
with
the
governor's
finance
office
referencing
slide.
Nine
on
gaming
venues
tend
to
attract
High,
Revenue
events
with
the
additions
of
T-Mobile,
Arena,
Allegiant
stadium
and
other
large
non-gaming
event.
Centers
Las
Vegas
continues
to
reinvent
and
claim
it
stake
to
the
tourism
capital
of
the
world.
Not
only
is
Las
Vegas
an
international
brand,
but
it
also
has
the
infrastructure
to
host
over
300
000
tourists
in
a
weekend,
which
I
believe
are
two
key
attributes.
H
That's
going
to
land
us
a
lot
of
events
over
other
metros
set
up
for
tourism
in
the
future.
As
an
example,
in
fiscal
year
23,
a
few
notable
events
are
scheduled
to
occur
in
Las
Vegas
in
the
same
month.
There's
a
Taylor
Swift
concert
at
Allegiant
dell
concert
the
sweet,
16
and
Elite.
C
H
Also
Formula
One
in
fiscal
year,
24.
I
think
in
the
news
they
just
announced
that
Las
Vegas
will
be
hosting
the
NCAA
men's
basketball,
Final,
Four
tournament
and
2028.
So,
looking
at
that
long-term
Outlook.
I
A
lot
of
event
planners
are
bullish
on
Las
Vegas.
My
forecast
assumes
visitation
will
continue
to
increase
over
the
forecast
period
in
Las.
Vegas
will
continue
to
launch
these
large-scale
events,
especially
with
its
expansion
into
several
pro
sports
leagues
and
its
ability
to
host
Collegiate
championships
in
the
city
fiscal
year
to
date
through
October.
This
Revenue
source
is
up
nearly
200
percent
and
12
million.
Over
the
year
today,
amount
collected
last
year,
October's
collections
came
in
more
than
twice
the
amount
of
my
forecasts
for
that
period
at
9.8
million.
I
I
Thank
you,
chair
Rosenthal,
Christian
Tower,
with
a
fiscal
analysis.
Division
for
the
record,
our
non-gaming
December
5th
forecast
differs
when
compared
with
our
November
14th
forecast
by
about
9
million
dollars
or
more
in
each
fiscal
year,
and
I
will
try
to
explain
why
that
is
so.
First
of
all,
our
basic
assumptions
and
Outlook
in
relation
to
this
tax
have
not
changed.
I
Instead,
two
things
happened
first
after
the
November
14th
meeting,
I
Revisited
our
forecast
redone
the
analysis,
reassessed
it
and
I
found
that
I
had
under
projected
the
first
quarter:
revenues
for
this
tax
in
fiscal
year,
2023
by
about
3
million
dollars.
In
other
words,
the
takeoff
point
of
my
November
14th
forecast,
was
about
three
million
dollars
too
low.
I
That
was
back
then
and
I
corrected
that
up
now,
then.
The
second
thing
that
happened
is
we
we
received
as
a
September
revenues
for
this
tax,
which
we
of
course
take
into
account
for
our
December
5th
forecast
and
the
September
revenues
came
in
significantly
higher
than
in
any
month
in
the
history
of
this
tax
before
right.
I
So
as
a
result,
our
our
December
5th
forecast
is
about
nine
nine
million
dollars
higher
in
each
fiscal
year
and
then,
with
inflation,
everything
projecting
into
fiscal
year
2024,
then
our
November
14th
forecast.
So
in
a
way
we
we
we
upgraded
our
starting
point
for
the
forecast
due
to
the
actuals
we
received,
and
so
so
it
ends
up
with
our
forecast
being
in
fiscal
year,
2023
or
59
million
thirty
two
thousand
dollars.
I
Then,
despite
due
to
the
events
Formula
One,
Super
Bowl,
you
will
recall
from
the
November
meeting
that
that
plays
a
significant
role
in
our
forecast
fiscal
year,
2024
79
79
million
dollars,
79
million
385
dollars
apologize
and
then
taking
out
the
Super
Bowl
and
taking
out
the
Formula
One
into
fiscal
year.
2025
life
dropped
to
66
million.
Sixteen
thousand
dollars
with
that
I'd
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions.
Thank
you.
I
I
Right
so
in
fiscal
year
2023
we
went
through
event
the
events
calendar
and,
for
example,
the
T-Mobile
stadium
has,
as
far
as
I
could
find
out
about
17
or
18
events
scheduled,
and
if
we
compare
that
to
fiscal
year,
the
previous
fiscal
year
2022.
These
were
I
believe
11
events.
So
there
are
significant,
like
big
concerts
in
addition
to
sporting
events,
there's
a
significant
difference
between
fiscal
year
22
and
23.,
similar
in
the
legion
stadium,
and
then
there
are
a
number
of
additional
festivals,
also
planned.
I
We
know
there
are
additional
festivals,
planned
and-
and
our
forecast
is
based
on
taking
these
one
by
one
into
account
and
then
the
the
assumption
is
that
this
can
be
repeated
and
will
be
repeated
in
the
fiscal
years
to
come,
because
we
believe,
looking
at
the
looking
at
the
significant
taxpayers
in
this
tax,
we
believe
they
have
learned
on
how
to
make
this
work
and
they
will
seek
and
try
to
to
reproduce
this
and
so
far
we
have
no
indication
for
that.
They
can't
do
this.
I
And
from
taxation
standpoint
this
is
Erica
Scott
Economist,
with
taxation
for
the
record,
so
our
assumption
is
so
we
know
what's
upcoming
for
the
most
part,
fiscal
23
fiscal
year,
24
with
large
one-time
events
as
well,
but
for
fiscal
year
25,
our
our
assumption
is
is
is
stabilization
with
the
the
large
concert
venues
that
are
just
consistent
with
their
with
their
their
concerts,
their
acts
that
are
upcoming.
Of
course,
we
aren't
aware
of
all
of
them
or
they
haven't
been
announced
yet,
but
we
are.
We
are
betting
that
they're
pretty
consistent.
I
I
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
yeah,
pretty
much
to
complement
what
the
other
two
forecasters
have
said.
I
My
fiscal
year
22
my
fiscal
year,
23
is
built
off
my
fiscal
year,
22
forecast
and
then,
as
each
event
is
announced,
it's
adjusted
upward
and
then
looking
into
fiscal
year
25
a
lot
of
that
is
unknown,
but
it's
under
the
assumption
that
we'll
continue
to
land
these
same
events
that
we
did
in
fiscal
year,
23
and
24,
along
with
similar
events
to
the
one-time,
Super,
Bowls
or
Formula
One
events
looking
into
the
future.
I
So
one
question
you
said
it's
so
as
it
events
are
announced,
you're,
adding
that
event
or
you're
just
plugging
it
into
an
unknown
that
you
already
had
plugging
it
into
an
unknown
that
I
already
had
because
you're
not
adding
an
additional
event.
When
you
see
another
amplifying
the
the
growth
factor,
yeah
okay
got
it.
I
I
feel
pretty
good
about
it.
Fiscals
23
and
25
I'm
a
little
bit
concerned
that
in
24
there's
so
substantially
more
than
the
other
two,
and
so
it
just
seems
to
me
that
we
can
just
arbitrarily
pick
say:
60
million
for
the
20
24
fiscal
year
and
then
66
million
for
the
next
one
I'm
a
little
bit
concerned
that
that
seems
so
high
in
relation
to
the
other
two
for
that
second
fiscal
year.
I,
don't
know
what
what
the
others
feel
about
that.
I
I
think
the
I'm
sorry
Michael
Chrome,
the
2023
so
you're
saying
are
you
I
just
want
to
clarify
you're,
saying
the
fiscals
of
the
59
million
that
we
have
in
23.
I
concerned
I
think
there
there
definitely
is
increased
demand
and
there
will
be
increased,
shows,
but
I
think
also.
What
we
saw
this
year
was
a
lot
of
the
pent-up
demand
for
shows
coming
back,
and
so
it
feels
a
little
bit.
Aggressive
I
was
more
thinking
around
the
budget
number
the
budget,
divisions,
number
57
and
then
moving
up
to
the
I
guess
it
would
be
59
with
budget
division
for
for
fiscal
year
24.
I
I
I
So
we
did
a
calculation
based
on.
I
A
visitor
estimate
with
a
with
a
ticket
estimate
of
what
the
average
ticket
price
might
be
and
if
we,
if
you
think,
for
example,
that
the
formula
one
would
sell
100
000
tickets
and
they
would
go
at
an
average
price
of
Thirteen
hundred
dollars,
which,
according
to
research,
we
did
is
not
an
unrealistic
price
that
would
turn
out
to
be
11.7
million
dollars
in
tax
revenues.
And
if
we
look
at
something
similar
from
the
for
the
Super
Bowl,
let's
say:
65
000
tickets.
I
If
we,
according
to
a
research,
the
average
ticket
price
of
two
thousand
five
hundred
dollars
seems
to
be
realistic,
and
that
would
turn
out
to
be
7.3
million
dollars
in
tax
revenues
and
that
that
is
that
that
was
my
calculation
with
it.
I
I
I
So
it's
a
couple
million
dollars
in
incremental
tax
revenue
for
this
tax,
not
20
million
right.
The
20
million
is
your
estimated
revenue
for
the
event
and
then
you've
got
to
apply
the
nine
percent
tax
rate.
No,
that
is
with
the
nine
percent:
okay,
okay,
so
19
million
ish
for
those
two
events,
correct
they're,
Justified,
yeah
and
24.,
and
then
without
Intel
I
know,
people
are
speculating
that
F1
will
come
back,
but
I
don't
know
how
frequently-
and
it's
obviously
not
a
given.
I
I
Yeah,
we're
I,
don't
have
everybody's
motion,
I'm
wondering
where
we
are
and
go
ahead:
Marvin,
okay,
what?
If
we
had
go
with
a
physical
division
59
for
the
first
year
and
because
of
the
activity
we
already
know
about,
going
up
to
65
million
in
the
second
year
and
then
dropping
back
down
to
budget's
number
of
59
in
the
third
year
I,
don't
know!
How
does
that
sound
to
everyone.
I
Okay,
so
do
you
do
you
want
to
summarize
the
motion
Mr
Tower?
Do
you
be
happy
to
do
so?
If
you
wish
to
do
so,
if
you
wish
me
to
do
so,
terrorism.
Thank
you
because
then
tell
for
the
record.
So
if
I
understood
the
motion
correctly.
J
J
Linda
Rosenthal
for
the
record,
so
just
one
one
comment:
I
think
we're
getting
we're
getting
much
closer,
but
I
mean
I,
don't
think
the
math
seems
unrealistic
for
what
the
fiscal
analysis
division
did
in
terms
of
the
specific
Revenue
that
will
be
driven
by
the
two
unique
events
in
24:
we're
only
increasing
the
the
forecast,
6
million-
and
it's
you
know:
19
million
dollar
from
those
two
events
so
assuming
a
decline,
then
in
concerts
and
other
things,
so
my
only
consideration
would
be
to
have
24
spike
a
bit
a
bit
higher
to
to
recognize
the
it
doesn't
have
to
be
100
of
the
number,
but
I
think
it's
substantially
closer
to
the
to
the
number
that
the
19
million
dollar
number.
J
J
J
So
what
if
we
did
like,
if
so
it
was
15
of
the
19,
it's
not
even
all
of
it.
That
would
take
you
from
or
just
make
it
an
easy
say.
It
was.
J
H
Any
any
further
discussion
on
that.
The
any
further
comments
on
the
discussion
that's
taking
place
about
raising
the
motion.
That's
on
the
table
in
fiscal
24
to
75
million
yeah
75,
it's
Michael,
Chrome
I
still
believe
the
75
is
a
bit
aggressive.
H
I'd
be
more
comfortable
settling
in
it.
I
think
we
said
65
before
be
comfortable
if
we
said
70
but
I,
think
that's
for
me,
I'm
comfortable
there
and
then
I,
guess
59
and
2025
is
that.
Is
that
what
you
said?
What
did
you
say
for
25
59.?
He
said
the
the
budget
so
59.8,
so
yeah
yeah.
H
Jennifer
Lewis,
but
I'd
concur
a
little
bit
with
the
70
million
I.
Think
at
some
point,
there's
like
a
Golden,
Goose
I'd,
be
afraid
of
at
some
point.
Ticket
prices
and
there's
only
so
much
room
capacity,
I
mean
there's
new
rooms
underway,
but
not
that
many
to
fill
everything
up
so
I
just
would
be.
Can
if,
if
someone
can't
find
a
room
there,
they're
not
going
to
Formula
One
or
they're,
camping
or
whatever,
but
at
some
point
there's
a
Golden,
Goose,
think
and
so
I
think
I'm
more
comfortable
with
the
70
mode.
H
H
Okay,
still
on
agenda
item
six
sub,
section
c:
the
state
two
percent
sales
tax
will
be
next
Miss
Scott.
Whenever
you're
ready.
You
can
start
us
off.
H
Okay,
good
afternoon,
Erica
Scott
again
Economist
with
taxation
for
the
record,
my
forecast
for
the
two
percent
sales
tax
did
not
change,
although
I
do
have
kind
of
a
a
slide
slide.
Number
six
will
show
so
far
into
the
year
where
we're
at,
which
is
my
reasoning
for
why
I'm
not
changing
my
my
forecast,
so
we
are
in
and
around
that
you
know
it
was.
It
was
a
growth
of
6.5
percent
in
July
11.3
in
August
and
then
9.4
in
in
September.
H
My
assumption.
Our
assumptions
from
taxation
is
that
there
could
be
some
slowing
and
spending,
and
so
I
I
believe
my
my
forecast
of
the
the
seven
percent
seven
point
one
percent
is
is
fair,
and
so
that's
what
I
was
going
to
stick
with
for
this
this
meeting
and
with
that
I
can
open
it
up
to
any
questions.
H
H
and
let's
take
a
look
at
inflation
by
level
one
components:
all
eight
major
groups
are
starting
to
dip
down
slightly
in
October,
but
still
remain
stubbornly
high
in
some
categories:
housing
dip
below
eight
percent
and
transportation.
The
second
biggest
CPI
component
is
back
down
to
11
percent,
nearly
half
of
the
March
2022
number,
which
printed
at
22
percent
inflation,
food
and
beverage,
Still
Remains
separately
high
at
10
and
a
half
percent.
H
And
then,
if
you
look
at
Medical,
Care
apparel
Recreation,
these
are
all
in
the
four
to
five
percent
range,
with
almost
all
groups,
elevated
from
their
January
21
numbers.
Next
slide.
12
shows
the
main
drivers
of
the
headline
inflation
number
by
CPI
category.
The
way
it
represents
the
specific
group's
share
of
the
total
inflation
number
and
the
lines
on
the
left
show
the
non-seasonally
adjusted
index
time
series
of
the
CPI
category
dating
back
to
1990,
with
the
Green
Dot
on
the
line
representing
the
series
all-time
high.
H
H
The
top
four
drivers
of
inflation
are
housing
which
represents
about
35
to
40
percent
of
the
headline
number
Transportation
at
18
food
and
beverage
at
14
and
Medical
Care
at
nine
percent.
Collectively
these
groups
count
for
over
80
percent
of
the
total
inflation
number.
So
as
long
as
these
four
categories
remain
high
and
far
above
the
target
inflation
rate,
the
headline
inflation
number
will
remain
elevated
too
well,
there's
some
room
from
Improvement
to
taming
inflation,
there's
still
a
lot
of
work
to
do.
H
Turning
to
slide
13
with
all
that
in
mind.
Fortunately,
sales
tax
serve
somewhat
as
a
hedge
to
inflation,
with
inflation
increasing
to
over
eight
percent
this
year,
and
almost
all
inflation
categories,
elevated
far
above
their
2021
numbers
and
upward
adjustment
to
Goods
has
resulted
in
higher
prices
and
therefore
higher
collections.
This
is
demonstrated
in
the
taxable
retail
sales
over
the
year
collections,
which
have
increased
over
the
year.
For
about
past
20
months,
turning.
A
Next,
if
you
look
at
non-store
retailers,
which
is
fifth
in
line
on
the
chart
from
2018
to
2022
non-store,
retailers
have
shot
up
averaging
the
11th
or
12th
largest
taxable
sales
source
to
the
fifth
increasing
by
nearly
400
million
over
four
years
and
is
trending
on
a
vertical
path.
As
remote,
retailers
and
Marketplace
facilitators
increase
their
market
share
in
the
overall
retail
space.
A
Turning
to
slide
15
with
all
that
in
mind,
I
believe
this
Revenue
Source
has
realized
a
new
normal
I
used
a
regression
model
to
forecast
retail
sales
driven
by
variables,
such
as
visitation
employment
wages
and
total
gaming
volume.
My
forecasts
are
slightly
stronger
from
when
we
met
in
November
after
adjusting
for
the
year
today,
actuals
my
estimates
steadily
increase
throughout
the
forecast
period.
I
A
K
A
I
Division
and
the
taxable
sales
for
the
fiscal
analysis
division
actually
begins
on
page
53
of
the
fiscal
division
packet.
A
I
I
And
so
last
time
when
we
were
forecasting
the
quarter,
we
know
two-thirds
of
the
quarter,
so
we're
really
forecasting
September,
so
September's
taxable
sales
came
in
at
9.4
percent,
which
I
was
expecting
9.1,
which
is
pretty
close
in
forecasting
business.
Unfortunately,
the
the
tax
this
the
collections
only
grew
7.2
percent,
so
about
two
percent
less,
but,
and
that
can
happen
because
there
can
be
a
variance
between
the
taxable
sales
reported
and
the
collections
due
to
they
are.
There
are
diversions
for
tourism,
Improvement
districts
and
economic
diversification,
districts
for
the
Tesla.
I
And
and
not
paying
the
correct
amount,
but
that
took
me
by
surprise
to
have
the
two
percent
gap
between
so
thus
I
missed
the
first
quarter.
Right
I
got
the
taxable
sales
I
missed
the
collections,
so
I
had
to
make
an
adjustment
downward
for
the
first
quarter,
because
I
now
know
the
actual.
Then
we
know
the
October
visitor
numbers.
They
were
stronger
than
what
I
thought.
So,
thus
the
October
November
December,
the
visitors,
was
revised
up
a
little
bit.
I
So
that
brings
the
second
quarter
of
FY
23
up
a
little
bit,
so
you
can
see
looking
at
table
eight.
The
the
net
effect
is
it's
a
slight
downward
revision.
Why?
Because
it
was
about
a
four
million
dollar
negative
adjustment
because
of
I
had
taxable
sales
growing
or
collections
growing
by
the
nine
percent,
not
the
seven
percent.
So
when
you
look
at
the
fiscal
divisions,
there.
A
In
table
eight,
it's
a
downward
provision
in
the
forecast
by
only
264
000.,
basically
unchanged,
because
missing
September
and
then
the
visitors
being
stronger
for
October
thinking
that
should
translate
into
taxable
sales.
Also,
then,
that's
that's
FY
23.
then
moving
into
fy24.
There
really
wasn't
a
change
and
there
really
shouldn't
be
much
change
and
so
I'm
going
to
apologize.
That
you
do
this
and
then
put.
H
A
And
then
this
morning,
looking
to
it,
I'm
like
what's
going
on
with
2023
third
quarter,
so
that
would
be
the
first
quarter
of
FY
23.
and.
J
J
I
won't
spend
a
lot
of
time
on
it,
but
if
you
so
you're
looking
at
table
3
in
the
2023
third
quarter
here
you
can
see
that
it
grows
by
6.9
percent
and
but
when
you
go
over
the
difference
right,
it's
actually
increasing
and
that's
what
threw
me
that
shouldn't
happen.
So
somehow
bad
numbers
got
into
the
presentation
tables
compared
to
what
the
forecast
was,
because
that
should
actually
be
basically
448.8
here,
not
453..
So
it
was.
C
Unchanged
so
basically,
really
not.
It
was
the
front
end
and
then
there's
just
a
little
bit
of
adjustment.
So
in
fy20
and
table
eight.
H
For
fy24,
the
forecast
should
be
one.
Eight.
Four
three
point:
three,
two,
two
one,
eight
four
three
point
three
two
two
which
is
actually
a
six
point:
six
percent
increase
over
the
FY
23
forecast,
but
it's
a
downward
revision
of
approximately
1.5
million
dollars
and
then
then,
because
the
error
in
23
propagated
2023
excuse
me
2023
third
quarter
propagated
forward
into
2020
three
2024
third
quarter,
then
the
the
forecast
for
FY
23
that
you're
seeing
in
table
a
should
be
one
nine.
H
Two,
nine
point:
four,
two,
two,
that's
one,
nine
two
nine
point,
four
two
two,
which
is
actually
a
downward
division
of
approximately
7.3
million,
not
3
million
that
you
see
there
and
so
that's.
The
reason
for
you
can
see.
24
is
just
a
slight
word.
Downward
revision
and
part
of
the
the
adjustment
in
fy24
for
the
downward
was
when
going
looking
at
it.
What
Moody's
forecast
was
for
inflation,
the
rate
of
inflation
starting
to
subside
and
I
just
thought.
A
And
the
Super
Bowl,
not
that
I
still
don't
have
growth,
as
you
can
see.
Looking
at
the
table,
I
have
on
the
screen,
but
it
just
it
was
backed
off
a
little
bad
and
so
then
continue
continuing
into
the
four
quarters.
Fy
2025
there
I
looking
at
it
after
having
a
chance
to
revisit
I,
think
I
still
had
I
wasn't
backing
off
enough
because
I'm
not
assuming
I'll,
have
F1
in
the
Super
Bowl
and
fy25
and
with
inflation.
A
The
rate
of
inflation
coming
down
in
the
low
twos
I
just
had
too
much
real
growth,
I
believe
occurring
in
Alpha,
2025
and
so
again
the
table
having
the
screen.
You
can
see
pulling
back
on
those
quarters.
So
Madam
chair
members
of
The
Forum,
that's
fiscal's,
forecast
again
I
apologize
for
having
to
change
the
numbers
on
you,
but
I
noticed
that
about
8
50
this
morning
and
was
frantically
trying
to
figure
it
out
before.
H
Coming
over
here,
but
thus
you
can
see
that
that
would
it
does
change
fiscal's
path
a
little
bit
with
regards,
rather
than
it
being
an
upward
revision,
it's
a
slight
downward
Revision
in
FY
2024
and
then
a
larger
downward
Vision
in
FY
2,
only
25,
due
to
further
reasons.
I
stated
with
that
I
can
answer
any
questions
that
the
members
have.
Thank
you.
H
Thank
you.
Linda
Rosenthal,
for
the
record,
so
sorry
I
got
a
little
lost
there
with
years
and
numbers
was
the
the
billion
843
322,
which
year
was
that,
for
that
is
fy24,
so
it
would
be.
The
1729.966
that
you
see
listed
in
table
eight
for
FY
23
and
for
fy24
would
be
the
one
eight
four
three
point,
three
two
two
and
then
for
fy25.
It
would
be
the
one
nine
two
nine
point:
four
two
two.
Thank
you
very
much
for
that
clarification.
H
H
The
second
thing,
I,
think,
is
that
we
have
certain
components
of
the
sales
tax
that
are
based
on
people's
feeling
about
the
future
economy,
say,
for
instance,
if
you
go
to
purchase
a
vehicle
and
you
think
things
are
going
to
go
bad,
then
you
probably
delay
that
purchase
so
you've
got
some
give
and
take
there.
I
think.
Another
thing
that
I
suppose
looks
at
advantage
on
the
sales
tax
is
that
we
from
the
numbers
we
saw
by
Moody's
when
they
put
them
up,
people
have
accumulated
some
assets
and
the
sales
tax.
H
H
C
L
Madam
chair
because
again
just
because
I'm,
the
one
that
messed
up
the
numbers
so
I
better
try
and
get
it
right.
So,
as
I
understand
Mr
Levitt's
motion,
it
would
be
to
go
with
fiscal
divisions,
forecast
for
FY
23,
the
1729.966.
L
The
FY
24
revised
forecast
that
I,
provided
you
the
one
eight
four
three
point:
three,
two
two
and
then
budgets
excuse
me:
agencies
forecast
for
fy25
of
1925.377.
Hopefully
I
got
Mr
Lovett's
motion
correctly,
that's
correct!
Thank
you.
So
we
have
a
motion
and
a
second
any
further
discussion.
H
Thank
you,
Erica
Scott,
for
the
record,
so
for
the
the
forecast
for
insurance
premium
tax.
If
we
go
to
slide,
nine
I
had
not
changed
my
forecast
for
this
one
just
because
my
model
was
based
on
historical
growth,
which
is
pretty
consistent.
L
A
On
the
fiscal
year,
2023
563
million
on
fiscal
year
24
and
594
million
on
fiscal
year
25.
so
with
that
I
would
be
open
to
any
questions.
A
A
Please
refer
to
slide
17
for
my
insurance
premium
tax
forecast,
the
insurance
premium
tax
is
a
relatively
stable
Revenue
source
for
the
state
and
is
not
subject
to
fluctuations
as
much
as
the
taxes
that
are
closely
aligned
with
tourism
and
spending
like
the
damage
percentage
fee
collections
or
the
live,
entertainment
taxes,
I
estimated
the
ipt
revenue
with
aggression,
model
based
on
households,
medical
CPI
and
the
10-year
treasury
rate,
with
no
new
data
coming
in
for
this
rev
news
source,
my
forecasts
are
identical
from
when
we
last
met.
I
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Michael
Nakamoto,
with
the
fiscal
analysis
division
as
a
usual
reminder
on
the
insurance
premium
tax.
Just
to
back
up
to
miss
Scott's
numbers
that
she
presented.
There
is
always
an
addition
of
an
around
20
21
million
dollars
from
the
insurance
division
of
the
Department
of
Business
and
Industry
for
the
Surplus
lines
portion
that
they
collect,
which
is
why
the
numbers
in
her
presentation
do
not
match
what
you
have
in
table.
Eight.
I
Fiscal
analysis
division
is
going
to
sound
a
little
bit
like
a
broken
record.
With
respect
to
our
forecast,
as
Mr
ginden
noted
at
the
beginning
of
this
agenda
item
with
respect
to
the
actual
collections,
we
do
not
have
actual
collections
for
the
first
quarter.
We
normally
would,
but
because
of
the
issues
the
Department
of
Taxation
came
across,
we
don't
thus
with
very
minor
if
even
recognizable
changes
to
personal
income
and
a
lot
of
our
economic
Atomic
Outlook.
The
fiscal
analysis.
I
Division
has
not
changed
our
forecast
for
the
insurance
premium
tax,
based
on
the
information
that
we've
gotten
from
the
insurance
Division
and
the
Silver
State
Health
Insurance
Exchange
on
health
insurance
rates,
and
that's
about
40
percent
of
the
insurance
market.
Right
now,
and
just
the
general
pattern
with
this
tax
that
it
is
relatively
Recession
Proof.
I
If
I
had
you
turn
to
page
74
of
the
fiscal
packet,
you
can
look
at
insurance
premium
tax
collections
as
a
as
a
line
chart
and
with
the
exception
of
the
Great
Recession,
it
just
basically
goes
up,
and
so
we
have
growth
in
anywhere
between
5.4
and
5.8
percent
throughout
the
forecast
Horizon,
which
we
think
is
reasonable.
Given
this
tax
and
again
there
are
no
changes
to
our
forecast
and
I'd
be
glad
to
answer
any
questions.
Thank
you.
I
Emotion,
yes,
please
make
a
motion
that
I
think
I'm
comfortable
with
all
the
fiscal
division
numbers
so
570
603
and
the
636.
in
2023,
24
and
25
respectively.
It's
my
motion.
I
All
right,
Erica
Scott
for
the
record
for
modified
business
tax
we've
seen
strong
employment
in
Nevada.
My
model
from
the
last
meeting
I
had
noticed.
I
did
need
to
work
with
that.
A
bit
I
think
we
discussed
that
so
I
did
work
on
that
model
with
matching
some
of
the
wage
and
salary
disbursement
data
that
Moody's
provides
updated
just
this
last
November.
So
the
estimated
growth
rate
in
the
wage
and
salary
disbursement
is
a
mid
to
high
six
percent
rates
for
fiscal
year,
23,
24
and
25
in
and
around
that.
J
So
for
fiscal
year
2023
my
forecast
came
in
at
792.83
million
and
then
of
course,
I
I
provided
figures
prior
to
the
the
known
modified
business
tax
rate
reduction,
that's
taking
effect
in
fiscal
year,
2024
so,
prior
to
that,
we
would
have
seen
growth
in
modified
business
tax
of
up
to
842
million
in
fiscal
year
2024
and
then
898
million
in
fiscal
year
25
and
then
on.
The
next
slide.
J
I
have
the
graph
with
the
the
rate
reduction
for
and,
of
course,
this
is
for
modified
business
tax,
General
business,
sorry,
and
so,
when
we
factor
in
that
the
rate
reduction,
then
we're
looking
at,
of
course,
the
same
792
million
for
fy23,
then
715
million
for
fy24
and
763
million
for
fy25
and
then
moving
into
the
modified
business
tax.
Financial
category,
that's
on
slide,
12.
K
Down
to
44
million
and
then
47
million
in
fy25,
so
for
modified
business
tax
mining
I
did
run
similar
factors,
but
also
added
in
the
component
of
of
Natural
Resources
employment
and
looked
at
those
Trends
which
again
estimate
about
six
percent
employment
growth.
K
So
my
numbers
for
modified
business
tax
mining
came
in
at
22
million
for
FY
23,
23
million
for
FY
24
and
24
million
for
fy25,
and
then
of
course,
factoring
in
the
rate
reduction.
Then
it
drops
down
to
19
million
in
FY
24
and
20
million
in
fy25,
and
so
with
that
I'd
be
well.
The
next
slide
shows
the
overall
overall
modified
business
tax
growth
in
FY
23
and
then,
of
course,
the
reduction
in
fy24
due
to
the
modified
business
tax
rate
reduction
and
with
that
I'd
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions.
K
Thank
you,
Mr
rotari.
Thank
you,
chair
Rosenthal
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch
Economist
with
the
governor's
finance
office.
Please
refer
to
my
modified
business
tax
forecast
for
the
general
business
or
non-financial,
which
starts
on
slide
19
on
slide.
19
I
provide
a
general
business
business
employment
forecast.
K
My
forecast
shows
steady
increases
in
employment
throughout
the
forecast
period.
Nevada
has
surpassed
its
pre-pandemic
job
Peak
and
continues
to
add
jobs.
As
of
data
of
October
of
2022,
total
non-farm
is
up
22
200
jobs
from
its
pre-pandemic
peak
and
the
private
sector
is
up
28
500
from
the
pre-tem
pre-pandemic
peak.
The
unemployment
rate
also
remains
relatively
low
at
4.6
percent.
K
It's
also
important
to
note
that
post-pandemic
shift
has
taken
place
in
Nevada's
labor
market
well,
but
Legion
hospitality
industry
is
still
down.
30
000
jobs,
manufacturing
Transportation
warehousing
are
up
30,
000
collectively,
with
average
weekly
wages
in
both
these
industries.
More
than
doubling
those
of
leisure
and
hospitality.
K
For
my
MBT
General
business
collections
slide,
20
shows
my
forecast.
The
red
bars
represent
the
actual
revenue
forecast
and
the
green
bars
represent.
The
revenue
forecast
with
before
the
MBT
rate
buy
down
with
no
new
data
coming
in
for
this
news
source,
my
new
or
new
signals
indicating
a
different
direction.
My
forecasts
are
identical
from
when
we
last
met
in
November
under
the
old
rates.
My
estimates
steadily
increased
throughout
the
forecast
period,
with
828.7
million
in
fiscal
year,
23
877.6
million
in
fiscal
year,
24
and
929
0.4
million
in
fiscally
or
25..
K
A
My
forecast
starts
with
a
financial
employment
Outlook
starting
on
slide.
22
employment
data
through
October
shows
that
the
financial
industry
employment,
is
above
its
pre-pandemic
peak.
However,
the
CES
or
employment
statistics
survey,
put
out
by
the
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics,
shows
that
October's
employment
reported
a
decline
of
1100
jobs
over
the
month
in
this
industry
in
the
state.
I
Next,
looking
at
slide,
23
this
chart
shows
the
mortgage
applications
index
and
the
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rate,
which
provides
a
snapshot
view
of
consumer
demand
for
mortgage
loans.
As
rates
go
up,
more
mortgage
applications
go
down,
as
rates
have
eased
off
the
seven
percent
Mark
recently
mortgage
applications
have
bounced
back
a
bit
too
and
are
up
nine
percent.
Over
the
week
as
of
November
21st
of
2022,
however,
mortgage
purchase
applications
have
contracted
about
52
percent
from
the
seasonally
adjusted
peak
in
early
2021
or
January
11th
of
2021.
I
Since
then,
roughly
every
one
percentage,
Point
increase
in
the
mortgage
rates
is
associated
with
a
17
decrease
in
mortgage
applications.
This
is
important
for
MBT
Financial
Revenue
collections,
because
lower
demand
for
mortgages
will
impart
a
tribute
to
a
Slowdown
in
employment
and
wages
and
commissions
in
the
financial
activities
sector,
especially
in
a
market
where
we've
financing
doesn't
make
much
sense
for
existing
home
owners
either.
C
L
Coming
in
at
42.5
million
in
fiscal
year,
23
47.6
million
in
fiscal
year,
24
and
49.2
million
in
fiscal
year
25.
However,
after
accounting
for
the
MBT
rate
buy
down
the
fiscal
year,
24
and
25
amounts
will
roughly
be
39.9
million
and
41.2
million
respectively,
as
seen
in
the
red
bars
or
about
eight
or
nine
million
less
in
each
fiscal
year.
M
For
mining
institutions,
this
starts
on
slide.
26
employment
in
the
mining
sector
tends
to
follow
the
trend
of
gold
prices,
which
are
currently
hovering
in
an
all-time
high.
The
mining
industry's
average
weekly
wages
are
the
highest
in
the
state
at
2700
per
week,
and
employment
is
expected
to
remain
stable
in
the
industry
over
the
forecast
period.
N
Different
direction,
my
forecasts
are
identical
from
when
we
last
met
in
November
under
the
old
rates.
My
estimates
moderately
increase
through
the
forecast
period
with
collections
coming
in
at
21.8
million
in
fiscal
year,
23
22.4
million
in
fiscal
year
24
and
23.1
million
in
fiscal
year.
25..
However,.
K
After
accounting
for
the
MBT
rate
buy
down
the
fiscal
year,
24
and
25
amounts
will
be
18.8
million
and
19.4
million
respectively,
seen
in
the
red
bars
or
about
2
million
less
after
the
buy
down
in
each
fiscal
year,
and
with
that.
That
concludes
my
MBT
forecast.
If
I'd
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions,
thank
you.
K
L
Have
continued
to
show
a
strong
labor
market
in
Nevada
in
the
near
term,
we
expect
inflationary
pressures
on
wages,
but
as
inflation
decelerates,
the
wage
growth
should
ease
of
a
fiscal
23.
Forecasts
for
the
non-financial
and
Mining
sectors
had
slight
upward
revisions
due
to
a
better
than
expected
monthly
jobs
report
in
November
interest
rate,
sensitive
areas
of
the
financial.
K
A
slight
downward
revision
due
to
a
larger
than
expected
decline
in
jobs
in
November
compared
to
the
prior
month,
assuming
the
Federal
Reserve
will
soft
land
the
economy.
We
should
expect
to
see
some
softening
in
the
labor
market
and
wage
growth
in
fiscal
24
compared
to
the
prior
fiscal
year,
reflected
in
our
forecast,
then
in
fiscal
25.
The
economic
activity
and
metrics
associated
with
this
tax
are
expected
to.
A
Page
that
table
will
display
the
mathematical
calculations
needed
to
translate
the
forecast
I
just
present
it
to
you
to
account
for
the
impact
of
the
reduced
tax
rates,
effective
fiscal
24..
You
can
also
see
the
minor
revisions
to
our
MPT,
non-financial
financial
and
Mining
forecasts
from
our
prior
meeting.
They
were
really
minor.
This
does
conclude
my
presentation,
but
I
would
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions
you
may
have.
G
Do
you
miss
I,
think,
that's
pretty
clear.
I
didn't
know
Miss
Powers.
If
you
wanted
to
reiterate
the
motion,
I
think
it
it's
so
straightforward.
We're
okay,
Madam,
chair
I
think
it
was
very
clear.
I
believe
the
motion
was
to
accept
the
physical
division
forecast
for
all
types
of
amputee
for
all
three
years.
That
is
correct.
Any
discussion
all
in
favor
say
aye
aye
aye.
That
motion
passes.
G
Thank
you,
Mr
chair,
so
for
the
real
property
transfer
tax,
this
tax
type
I've
spent
a
lot
more
time
with,
after
our
last
meeting
pulling
many
many
different
economic
indicators
from
Moody's
and
having
any
kind
of
real
trend
for
this
tax
type
was
pretty
difficult.
G
So
what
I've
done
here
is
we
do
know
that
the
real
property
transfer
tax
is
down
this
from
this
time
last
year
by
about
23
percent,
and
this
is
due
to
Rising
interest
rates
and
and
the
mortgage
originations
is
is
down,
the
cost
of
borrowing
is
is
up,
and
the
housing
market
is
seen
a
drop
in
sales
directly
affecting
this
tax
type.
However,
there
is
some
hopeful
expectations
that
the
interest
rates
will
stabilize
in
the
upcoming
fiscal
years
in
24
and
25.
G
We're
looking
for
this
to
happen
to
at
least
stabilize
this
tax
type.
So
for
my
model,
I
have
dropped
down
the
fiscal
year.
23
forecast
for
this
tax
to
be
a
131
million,
hopefully
see
some
recovery
in
FY
24
of
140
million
and
then
in
fiscal
year,
25
stabilizing
into
the
150
million.
Of
course,
all
three
fiscal
years
we'd
see
much.
A
A
G
C
A
J
J
J
Next
slide:
31
Nevada's,
historical,
12-month
percent
change
in
the
housing
price
index,
the
annotations
represent
point
to
point
16
month
decelerations
or
the
black
Dash
lines
and
black
numbers,
with
the
last
only
showing
a
nine
month
current
deceleration,
while
it's
highly
unlikely
that
these
periods
are
anogolous
of
the
current
period,
I
believe
they
serve
as
a
useful
reference
to
form
an
opinion
of
the
current
rate
of
growth.
J
J
Next,
my
estimates
for
HPI
growth
are
represented
on
slide
32,
which
roughly
forecast
a
15
decrease
in
the
housing
price
index
from
2022
to
the
end
of
the
forecast
period
or
fiscal
year.
25.
J
slide
33
provides
some
historical
context
on
the
U.S
average
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rates
in
October
of
2022.
The
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rates
reach
their
highest
rates
in
over
20
years.
The
last
time
the
rate
was
higher
was
in
March
of
2002..
However,
the
rate
has
decreased:
half
a
percent
in
November
of
2022
and
has
decreased
slightly
to
under
six
and
a
half
percent.
As
of
December
1st
of
this
year.
J
Turning
to
slide
34,
this
chart
shows
zero-to-date
change
in
the
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rates
by
year.
The
grade
faded
lines
represent
all
years
from
1972
to
2022,
except
for
2022,
which
is
in
blue
and
then
1981,
which
is
in
red
I,
picked
out
1981,
because
the
pattern
of
rate
changes
in
2022
have
roughly
been
following.
1981S.
K
Next
slide,
35
and
36
show
a
projection
of
existing
home
sales
in
Nevada
on
a
calendar
year
and
fiscal
year
basis.
The
forecast
expect
existing
home
sales
took
a
decline
in
the
first
year
of
the
forecast
period
due
to
the
impact
of
the
relatively
High
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rates
and
then
are
expected
to
increase
in
the
final
two
years,
with
the
expectation
that
the
mortgage
rates
will
continue
to
improve
over
the
next
two
fiscal
years.
K
K
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
again
for
the
record
Michael
Nakamoto,
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
for
the
real
property
transfer
tax.
If
you
look
at
table,
eight
you'll
see
that
we
have
made
very
minor
revisions
to
the
the
forecast
and
that
is
wholly
attributable
to
the
first
quarter
of
the
fiscal
year.
When
I
did
this
presentation
back
on
November
14th,
we
knew
16
of
the
17
counties,
and
so
we
had
the
number
of
approximately
33.5
million
give
or
take.
K
It
turned
out
that
those
County
that
we
were
waiting
for
did
not
report
their
collections
by
the
time
that
the
Department
of
Taxation
released
the
first
quarter
number,
but
they
have
since
put
that
number
in
or
we
have
that
number,
and
so
basically,
the
revision
of
167
thousand
dollars
to
FY
23
was
because
Story
County
reported
167
thousand
dollars
more
collections
than
I
had
anticipated
as
per
part
of
the
forecast.
K
The
story
otherwise
is
the
same.
We
have
not
changed
our
outlook
on
housing,
I
think
Miss
Lewis
would
love
for
the
the
housing
Outlook
to
be
as
optimistic
as
either
Mr,
gortari
or
Miss
Scott.
Have
it
we
frankly,
don't
think
it
is
I
think
looking
at
Moody's
forecasts
for
the
30-year
interest
rate,
they
still
have
it
increasing
going
into
2023
and
not
falling
until
you
get
later
into
2023
and
even
at
the
2024
to
the
point
where
we
may
not
even
be
below
seven
percent
by
2025..
E
On
all
of
the
the
pandemic
activity
that
was
going
on
as
I
think
I
noted
at
the
last
meeting,
there
were
significant
observations
of
people
in
certain
markets,
especially
in
the
west
coast,
so
Seattle
and
Phoenix
and
Boise
and
Las,
Vegas
and
Reno
are
among
them.
Where
you
saw
these
great
appreciations.
K
Of
prices,
because
people
who
were
no
longer
Tethered
to
a
workplace
in
in
California
or
or
elsewhere
could
move
to
somewhere
that
was
more
affordable
and
I.
Think
Reno,
and
Las
Vegas
in
particular,
are
seeing
the
effects
of
that
and
it's
going
to
be
a
while
before
things
correct
to
that
aspect.
So
when
you
look
at
our
fy24
forecast
in
comparison
to
what
you've
seen
in
the
history,
especially
on
page
108
of
the
fiscal
packet,
you
can
see
the
historical
collections
getting
us
down
to
105.3
million
dollars.
K
That's
pretty
close
to
what
we
were
seeing
pre-pandemic.
So
you
saw
103.4
million
in
FY
28,
101
million
in
FY
29
and
100.3
million
in
FY
20..
That
is
I,
think
where
the
Market's
got
to
settle
back.
To
is
back
at
the
levels
where
we
were
were
in
terms
of
the
revenue
it's
going
to
be
at
a
higher
price,
I
think,
but
with
a
lower
demand,
just
as
the
interest
rates
start
settling
out,
because
without
originations
you're
not
going
to
have
transfers.
K
G
For
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal,
just
a
quick
question,
if
you
can
remind
me
the
growth
back
into
25,
you
know
you're
saying
you
know
things
get
a
little
more
stabilized.
You
also
mentioned
that
potentially
permuti's
forecast
interest
rates
are
still
very
high,
just
just
questioning
in
my
mind
that
that
recovery
and
that
growth
into
25
off
of
the
24.
G
for
the
record,
Michael
Nakamoto
with
fiscal
analysis,
division,
Moody's
forecasts
for
the
30-year
fixed
rate.
It
falls
down
into
that
mid
five
range,
so
about
five
and
a
half
percent.
When
you
start
getting
out
into
calendar,
you're
25.
A
C
Now
and
as
prices
stabilize.
J
You
should
see
some
increased
activity
and
that's
what's
really
accounting
for
our
growth
when
you
get
out
to
fy25
yeah
any
any
people
who
delayed
buying
right
waiting
for
that
stabilization
of
rates
to
come
down
a
little
bit.
Probably
then,
would
would
exercise
that
option
at
that
time.
That
would
be
our
assumption.
Yes,
Madam
chair.
J
Any
questions,
or
should
we
entertain
a
motion?
I
guess,
I
had
a
couple
comments:
I
tend
to
kind
of
agree
with
physical,
especially
on
23.
Just
watching
sort
of,
what's
going
on
permits
I
think
are
down
about
20
for
the
last
couple
months
of
this
year
is
what
we're
seeing
and
then
the
other
part
which
is
really
hard
to
quantify.
E
L
So
I
think
that
some
of
these
big,
you
know
I,
think
I
found
one
that
was
like
200
million
dollars
and
that's
all
of
a
sudden,
a
huge
tax
General,
but
I
don't
see
that
I
think
there
will
still
there's
still
a
bunch
of
industrial
buildings
under
construction
here
and
in
the
South.
But
I
don't
see
that
kind
of
juicing
it
as
much
I,
don't
know.
If
anyone
else
has
comments
or
I'm
happy
to
make
a
motion,
all
right.
I
don't
want
to
like
jump
in
there.
L
I,
don't
normally
do
this,
I
want
to
go
a
little
off
the
reservation
for
2024
and
go
with
maybe
120
million
I.
Just
don't
think
it's
going
to
get
quite
as
low
as.
E
E
I'll,
second,
that
Mr
Nakamoto,
would
you
like
to
repeat
repeat
the
motion
for
the
staff?
Yes,
Madam
chair
for
the
record,
Michael
Nakamoto
I
think
it
was
pretty
clear,
but
just
so
we
have
it
correct.
It
was
one
it
was:
the
fiscal
division
forecast
of
122
million
572
000
and
FY
23,
then
120
million
in
fy24,
and
then
for
fy25.
It
was
the
fiscal
division
forecast
of
121
million
290
000..
K
You
may
remember
from
the
past
meetings
how
we
proceed
to
forecast
this
tax,
the
staff
from
taxation,
budget
office
and
fiscal
division
get
together
and
think
through
various
scenarios
of
how
the
economy
May
influence
this
tax.
Given
the
various
industry
mix,
we
have
not
had
any
new
information
since
our
last
meeting,
so
the
consensus
forecast
did
not
change
from
last
month.
So,
looking
at
the
table,
eight,
the
forecast
is
301
million,
eight
hundred
thousand
in
physical
23,
321
million
558
000
in
fiscal
24
and
339
million
548
000
in
fiscal
25..
K
A
A
Million
542
000
in
fiscal
24.,
58
million
98
000
in
fiscal
25..
Unless
there
are
questions
Madam
chair,
the
motion
would
be
to
approve
both
the
Commerce
tax
and
the
Commerce
tax
credits
under.
A
L
K
Processes
is
that
the
staff
and
the
governor's
finance
office
and
the
fiscal
analysis
division
for
the
first
round.
Ask
all
the
agencies
responsible
for
administering
each
of
the
revenue
sources
under
this
agenda
item
for
their
forecast
and
then
that's
reviewed
by
gfo
and
fiscal
and
and
we
produce
a
consensus
to
bring
forward
to
the
technical
advisory
committee
for
their
review.
So,
as
you
know,
that
happened
for
the
last
forecast
cycle
of
the
meetings.
So
here
we
don't
go
out
and
ask
all
the
agencies
again,
because
some.
A
Any
information,
but
for
some
of
the
the
larger
ones
like
in
for
the
treasurer's
interest,
income
and
unclaimed
property,
the
Secretary
of
State
ones.
We
do
ask
those
agencies
if
they
have
a
revised
forecast
to
provide
to
us
or
not,
and
then
we
can
reconsider
that
and
so
then
again,
gfo
and
physical
they'll
redo
their
forecast,
as
well
as
we'll
get
revised
forecasts
from
Taxation
and
gaming
control
board
for
the
ones
you
see
on
the
sheets
for
administered
by
those
two
agencies,
and
then
we
bring
that
forward
to
the
technical
advisory
committee.
A
And
so
basically,
what
you
see
is
on
page
75
table.
Six
of
the
printed
packet
is
the
forecast
that
was
approved
by
the
technical
advisory
committee
on
their
meeting
at
their
meeting
on
November
29th,
and
so
that
is
the
forecast
being
brought
forward
for
your
consideration
as
the
economic
forum
for
review
and
and
approving
some
forecasts.
A
Did
for
the
majors,
but
I
just
did
want
to
make
a
few
observations
on
the
record
comparable
to
those
made
at
the
technical
advisor
committee,
because
there
are
some
of
them
that
have
a
few
comments
that
should
probably
be
made
on
the
public
record
for
this
body,
and
so,
if
you're,
looking
at
Table
Six,
you
can
see
that
for
the
first
two
Revenue
sources,
the
net
proceeds
of
minerals
and
then
the
new
tax
that
was
approved
during
the
21
session,
the
mining
gross
revenue
tax
on
businesses
and
extracting
gold
and
silver.
That.
A
Dedicated
to
the
State
education
fund,
which
is
the
fund
that
provides
revenue
for
funding,
K-12
education
in
the
state
of
Nevada,
so
that
that
just
it
looks
funny
that
suddenly
there's
no
forecast
so
I
wanted
to
get
that
out
there.
Then
you
can
see
there
the
the
advanced
license
fees
for
under
the
gaming.
E
For
reference
that
it's
low
and
then
goes
up
for
fy24,
that's
the
assumption
is
Mr
Lawton
right.
The
Fontaine
Blue
will
be
opening
in
FY.
2024
triggering
Advanced
license
fees
in
that
fiscal
year.
Then
you
can
see
GL
3073
the
transportation
connection
excise
tax.
This
is
the
three
percent
tax
on.
M
That
transport
passengers,
and
so
the
only
reason
why
I
bring
it
up
here
you
can
see
fy24,
it
goes
up
and
then
goes
down
and
goes
back
up.
This
is
because,
under
the
law,
each
biennium,
the
first
five
million
of
this
tax,
is
required
to
be
deposited
in
the
state
highway
fund,
not
the
state
general
fund.
M
So
that's
why
you
get
the
up
and
down
pattern
if
you
want
to
for
comparable,
come
Viewpoint
across
the
three
years
at
five
million
dollars
to
fy24,
to
just
see
what
it
looks
like
so
then
the
next
page
there's
nothing
there,
because
it's
all
MBT.
A
A
Law,
25
percent
is
dedicated
to
the
state
general
fund.
75
percent
goes
to
the
state
highway
fund,
and
so
that's
the
amount.
You
see.
Here's
the
25
percent-
and
it
looks
all
normal
here,
but
I
just
want
to
put
that
out
for
the
record
that
if
you
would
go
look
at
our
tables
that
have
more
history,
it
looks
like
it
was
bigger
than
this
is
the
revenue
source
that
the
government
legislature
will
sometimes
make
adjustments,
especially
during
economic
downturns,
to
the
amount
that's
allocated
to
the
highway
fund.
C
G
G
So
this
is
always
has
traditionally
been
the
short-term
carlease,
the
10
tax
on
Hertz
rental,
Dollar
rental,
car
companies,
but
there's
a
bill
passed
in
the
21
session
to
require
the
peer-to-peer
sharing
platforms
such
as
turo
people,
renting
their
cars
now
are
required,
Toros
required
to
collect
the
10
tax,
which
is
the
Statewide
rate
and
then
at
Clark
and
Washoe
there's
an
additional
two
percent.
G
That's
part
of
the
short-term
car
rental
that
all
it
also
then
attaches
to
these
individuals
who
are
renting
their
cars
on
turtle
or
comparable
platforms
under
the
peer-to-peer
sharing
platform
under
the
statutory
structure.
So
since
that's
the
same
tax
amount,
the
same
tax
structure,
we're
just
reporting
that,
including
that
amount
under
the
peer-to-peer
in
the
short-term
car
rental,
primarily.
C
Because,
given
the
limited
number
of
taxpayers
reporting
pain,
attacks,
the
Department
of
Taxation
would
have.
J
Concerns
with
regards
to
actually
breaking
out
reporting
that
separately
and
getting
into
disclosure
issues
that
they
that
they're
not
allowed
to
report
individual
taxpayer
or
allow
you
to
deduce
so
thus
I
just
wanted
to
point
out
that
you
can
see
that,
and
it
looks
a
little
stronger
than
it
may
have
been.
J
If
you
go
back
and
look
at
history,
because
there's
now
additional
tax
piece
in
there,
the
peer-to-peer
and
so
finally,
it's
worth
I
think
mentioning
that
you
look
at
the
next
page,
GL
3290,
the
treasures,
interest
income
that
it
goes
up
quite
a
bit
in
FY,
23
and
then
more
in
fy24
and
F,
and
then
comes
back
down
halfway
25..
We
shouldn't
be
totally
surprised
there,
because
right
interest
rates
are
being
increased
by
the
Federal
Reserve.
J
So
even
though
the
so
thus
The
Treasure
of
portfolio
that
they
can
go
out,
invest
they
can
earn
more.
Also,
we
know
that
the
FY
2022
actual
compared
to
the
forecast
was
significantly
over
the
you're
going
to
be
revising
the
FY
23
forecast
up,
so
you
have
more
in
the
portfolio
against
higher
interest
rates.
J
Also,
what's
also
in
play
here
is
the
arpa
money,
the
the
federal
stimulus
money
that
the
state
still
spending
that
well
under
the
federal
guidance
and
a
state
and
Nevada
law,
any
interest
rate,
any
interest,
that's
earned
on
the
investment
of
those
proceeds
is
allowed
to
be
retained
by
the
state
and
then
under.
Our
state
law
is
required
to
be
deposited
in
the
state
general
fund.
So
we
still
have
some
of
the
Harper
money.
It'll
still
be
going
out.
J
So
that's
why
you
sort
of
see
the
pattern
with
the
the
extra
money
that
we
have,
because
the
actual's
coming
in
before
above
the
forecast,
the
forecast
for
23
being
revised
up
and
then
the
higher
interest
rates
in
the
federal
money
leads
to
the
pattern
that
you
see
in
the
forecast
of
going
up
through
24
and
then
falling
back
a
little
bit
and
everything
at
25.
and
with
that
Madam
chair.
J
Those
were
the
comments
that
I
wanted
to
make
about
the
revenues,
then,
with
regards
to
the
tax
credits
that
that's
information
coming
from,
we
know
how
much
that
the
law
is
governing
are
the
maximum
amounts
that
can
be
issued
or
available.
Then
what
we
have
to
do
is
work
with
the
agencies
that
are
responsible
for
administering
those
programs.
J
They
provide
us
information
as
to
what
they
think
might
be
in
the
pipeline
to
be
approved,
for
credits
as
well
as
what's
been
issued,
but
not
yet
been
taken,
and
so
all
that
is
taken
into
consideration
when
we're
doing
the
forecast
for
the
tax
credits,
and
so
that
is
then
reflected
in
the
forecast
that
you
see
here
and
with
that
Madam
chair
were
the
comments
I
wanted
to
make
other
than
I
would
caution.
People
like
we
did
at
the
tech.
J
When
you
go
look
at
this,
it
looks
like
24
and
25
those
two
fiscal
years
of
biennium
compared
to
the
21-23
biennium,
hey,
the
growth
doesn't
seem
that
strong
will
remember
you're
losing
the
net
proceeds
in
the
gold
and
silver,
which
is,
if
you
go
look
at
those
two.
It's
approximately
about
150
million
dollars
of
fiscal
year
or
300
million
over
the
biennium.
So
you
just
need
to
keep
that
in
mind
when
you're
going
to
go.
H
Forecast
for
the
talk
minor
General
minor
for
the
minor
general
fund,
Revenue,
okay,
I'll.
Second-
that
any
discussion
all
in
favor,
say:
aye
aye
motion
carries
okay,
so
now
Madam,
chair,
yeah,
that
I
think
the
economic
Forum.
If
you'd
like
to
put
the
form
in
recess
and
then
fiscal
staff
will
go
back
and
do
what
we
do,
which
is
get
all
the
numbers
of
tables,
check
the
numbers
and
then
get
them
into
the
forum
forecast
report
and
then
we'll
come
back
here.
H
I
mean
I,
always
know
that
we
say,
like
I,
think
it
went
from
a
half
an
hour
to
45
minutes,
it'll,
probably
be
close
to
an
hour
by
the
time
we
can
get
everything
in
get
the
report,
check
everything
and
then
get
copies
made.
So
I
think
that
a
lot
this
will
be
appropriate,
then
to
allow
you
to
go,
enjoy
your
lunch
and
then,
when
we
come
back
we'll
can.
Can
we
convene
Madam
chair
great,
thank
you.
So
we
will
call
the
December
5th
2022
meeting
of
the
economic
Forum
in
recess
foreign.