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From YouTube: 11/14/2022 - Economic Forum
Description
This is the third meeting in calendar year 2022. ***TIME CHANGED*** Please see agenda for details.
For agenda and additional meeting information: https://www.leg.state.nv.us/App/Calendar/A/
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A
A
A
At
today's
meeting
we
will
have
preliminary
forecasts
presented
by
the
various
forecasters
for
FY
2023,
FY
2024
and
FY
2025
on
the
state's
major
general
fund,
Revenue
sources
and
the
technical
advisory
committee's
preliminary
forecast
on
the
minor
Revenue
sources
approved
at
their
meeting
on
November
4th,
as
has
been
historically
done
at
the
November
meetings.
The
economic
Forum
will
not
be
formally
approving
any
preliminary
forecasts
for
any
of
the
state's
general
fund,
Revenue
sources
or
tax
credit
programs.
At
today's
meeting.
A
For
today's
meeting
we
will
have
a
presentation
by
Emily
Mandel
from
Moody's
Analytics
on
their
current
economic
Outlook,
as
well
as
their
forecast
for
the
sales
and
gaming
taxes.
After
that,
we
will
proceed
through
this
through
the
agenda
items
regarding
forecasts
for
the
major
and
minor
Revenue
sources
with
that,
I
would
like
to
ask
whether
any
of
the
other
members
have
opening
remarks
they
would
like
to
make
nope.
A
A
A
Chair
of
the
public
line
is
open
and
working,
and
we
have
no
callers.
Thank
you
very
much.
A
For
the
record,
I'm
Emily
Mandel
with
Moody's
Analytics,
an
economist,
so
thank
you
for
being.
Thank
you
for
having
me
here
today,
I'm
here,
to
talk
about
a
few
things.
A
First,
off
I
want
to
walk
through
our
assumptions
surrounding
the
outlook
for
the
United
States
economy,
as
well
as
some
of
the
risks
that
are
confronting
the
economy
right
now,
after
that
I'm
going
to
transition
to
talk
a
little
bit
about
the
Nevada,
Outlook
Nevada
performance
of
the
Nevada
economy,
and
then
finally,
I
will
talk
about
the
forecasts
we've
put
together
for
two
different
Revenue
series.
A
So
before
we
get
into
all
of
that,
though,
I
need
to
keep
the
lawyers
happy.
So
I
like
to
reiterate
that
I
work
for
Moody's
Analytics,
which
is
a
technically
separate
company
from
Moody's
investor
service,
the
ratings
agency,
so
nothing
I,
say
today
should
be
construed
as
having
any
bearing
on
any
ratings
actions
past
present
or
future
okay.
A
A
lot
of
that's
coming
from
the
huge
amount
of
stimulus
that's
been
pumped
into
the
economy,
but
put
that
together
and
we've
had
a
couple
years
of
very
strong
economic
growth
that
strong
growth
is
starting
to
come
to
a
bit
of
a
close,
it's
starting
to
get
feel
a
little
bit
slower,
but
we
are
clearly
not
in
a
recession
yet
and
I'd
like
to
reiterate
that
now
that
we've
had
so
much
talk
about
recession
about
you
know
two
a
quarter
ago,
we'd
had
that
you
know
two
quarters
of
negative
GDP
growth,
which
set
those
alarm
bells
ringing,
but
I
think
it's
pretty
clear,
based
on
the
strength
that
we've
seen
in
the
labor
labor
market
and
the
strength
that
we've
seen
in
consumer
spending
that
we
still
have
a
good
amount
of
Firepower.
A
A
That
said,
there
are
a
lot
of
risks
right
now,
definitely
more
heightened
risk
than
normal
recession.
Risk
is
higher
than
what
we've
seen,
oh,
probably,
probably
for
many
years
now.
I,
don't
know
that
any
of
us
exactly
saw
the
pandemic
coming
and
driving
a
recession
right
then,
and
so
with
that
in
mind,
there
are
a
couple,
other
paths
that
we
could
take
and
we
have
those
in
yellow
here.
A
As
a
moderate
recession,
you
can
see
that
that
moderate
recession
scenario
still
doesn't
come
anywhere
close
to
what
we
saw
back
in
the
Great
Recession
back
in
2008,
for
example,
and
there's
some
good
reasons
for
that,
based
on
some
of
the
underlying
strength
in
the
economy,
some
of
the
tighter
tighter
lending
standards
we've
had
just
stronger
strength,
imbalances
coming
into
that
I
can
talk
more
about
that
later
and
then
potentially
more
concerning
here
would
be
the
red
line
here,
which
is
a
stagflation
scenario.
A
A
A
A
So
the
main
point
that
I
want
to
convey
here
is:
there's
not
one
huge
inflation
inflation
dragon
is
how
I
like
to
put
it
out
there
that
we
need
to
slay.
There
isn't
one
huge
source
of
inflation
in
the
economy.
It's
coming
from
a
lot
of
different
sources
and
those
different
sources
are
each
going
to
have
their
own
paths
for
when
they're
going
to
come
in
for
when
they're
going
to
come
under
control.
A
Here,
some
categories
here
are
more
responsive
to
the
fed
and
the
FED
raising
interest
rates
on
others,
and
so
part
of
what
we
need
to
happen
is
we
need
to
that.
There
not
be
another
major
shock
to
the
economy,
but
as
it
is
now
we're
on
that
correct
path
and
the
Federal
Reserve
is
much
more
able
to
have
an
impact
on
prices
when
they're
related
to
Demand
right
when
they're
related
to
demand
in
the
economy.
A
What
they're,
not
as
able
to
control,
is
inflation
that
stems
from
Supply
and
so
that
Supply
disruption
could
be
from
Supply
chains.
For
example,
what
we
saw
during
the
pandemic
when,
especially
in
Goods
coming
out
of
Asia,
were
facing
really
large
backlogs
we're
seeing
huge
costs
in
order
to
get
those
products
to
the
United
States
to
even
produce
those
products.
A
Things
like
the
semiconductor
shortage
that
I'm
sure
all
of
you
have
heard
about
things
like
that:
aren't
very
responsive
to
inflation,
because
they're
driven
by
these
external
factors,
they're
not
driven
by
demand,
we've
seen
some
progress
here.
You
can
see
some
of
these
bars
here
related
to
supply
chains
that
purple
bar
here
and
that's
things
that
are
by
and
large
kind
of
shh
really
reliant
on
global
trade.
Things
like
vehicle
sales,
things
like
apparel
those
are
starting
to
come
in,
as
we've
seen
some
of
those
Supply
chains.
A
You
can
see
those
red
bars
becoming
closer
together
recently,
but
this
is
also
something
that's
a
bit
at
the
mercy
of
what's
going
on
globally
right.
This
is
something
that's
at
the
mercy
of
what's
going
on
in
the
conflict
in
Ukraine
as
well.
As
you
know,
a
moves
by
OPEC
in
order
to
kind
of
constrain
Supply.
So
this
is
something
that
we
think
is
going
to
keep
improving.
A
We
have
forecasts
that
energy
prices
will
stay
elevated
relative
to
what
we've
seen
in
recent
years,
but
begin
to
come
down,
definitely
not
hit
that
hundred
dollars
a
barrel
price
of
oil.
That
was
really
problematic
for
inflation
for
a
while
here
and
then
the
other
components
here,
things
like
shelter.
A
This
is
one
that
is
going
to
be
a
little
bit
lit
slower
to
come
through
in
part
because
of
the
ways
this
is
measured,
but
one
of
the
impacts
of
higher
interest
rates
is,
it
is
already
part
putting
a
damper
on
the
housing
market
right
and,
as
we
get
some
of
that
pressure
coming
in
on
the
housing
market,
that's
going
to
have
knock-on
effects
for
rents.
That's
going
to
have
other
impacts
in
terms
of
bringing
down
some
of
these
shelter
costs.
Just
by
destroying
some
of
that
Demand.
A
By
having
people
say,
you
know
I'm
going
to
stay
in
my
current
place
for
longer,
or
you
know,
maybe
for
those
you
know,
gen
Z
people
out
there.
Maybe
it's
not
time
to
go,
find
my
own
place.
Maybe
I
should
just
stay
with
parents
for
a
bit
longer.
All
of
that
put
together
is
going
to
take
some
pressure
off
here.
So
there's
definitely
wild
cards
here,
mostly
coming
from
that
supply
side.
A
But
a
lot
of
these
factors
are
beginning
to
come
a
little
bit
better
beginning
to
come
down
to
put
some
actual
quantifiable
numbers
to
this.
We
are
anticipating
that
inflation
will
end.
Around
eight
percent
will
average
around
eight
percent
in
2022..
This
is
calendar
year,
not
fiscal
year,
we'll
come
down
to
four
percent
in
23
and
then
get
back
on
a
more
sustainable
footing
in
the
mid
to
low
two
percent
in
2024..
So.
A
A
This
is
honestly,
I
think
a
fairly
striking
chart
in
just
the
way
that
you
can
see
this
climbed,
and
these
are
household
checkable
deposits
and
currency
okay.
So
this
is
the
amount
of
money
that
people
have
in
their
households
have
in
their
bank
accounts,
and
it's
pretty
much
anything
that
you
can
write
a
check
off
of
right.
A
Any
money
that's
readily
available
to
be
spent,
and
this
surged
massively
at
the
start
of
the
pandemic,
largely
because
of
stimulus
measures,
and
it
hasn't
really
come
back
in
since
then,
and
so
there's
still
a
huge
amount
of
money
out
there.
Not
all
of
this
will
necessarily
be
spent,
but
it's
a
cushion
and
it's
one
of
those
things.
That's
driving
this
very
strong
growth
in
consumer
spending.
These
strong
taxable
sales.
Also
that
we'll
talk
about
a
little
later,
is
just
this
cash.
A
That's
out
there
now
I
think
it's
also
important
to
look
at
how
this
is
distributed
across
the
economy.
Is
this
all
caught
up
with
our
millionaires
of
billionaires,
or
is
this
actually
pretty
broad
spread
across
the
economy
and
with
a
notable
exception
that
I'll
talk
about
in
a
second?
It's
pretty
widespread?
A
Cutoff
is
somewhere
around
28
000.
In
income,
households
have
significantly
more
money
on
hand
than
they
had
before,
and
so
this
is
providing
us
with
a
cushion.
This
is
giving
people
funds
that
they're
able
to
spend
to
to
compensate
for
the
impact
of
rising
prices
for
on
some
Goods
that
they
can't
really
avoid.
You
know
areas
like
housing.
You
can't
really
avoid
spending
money
on
your
rent.
A
You
can't
really
avoid
spending
money
on
putting
gas
in
your
car,
but
because
there's
so
much
cash
out
there
they're
able
to
keep
continue
spending
on
some
of
the
other
areas
of
the
economy.
This
also,
though,
has
kind
of
the
counter
effect
of
this
is
what
the
FED
is
kind
of
fighting
against.
A
A
So,
even
as
we've
seen,
households
have
a
lot
of
money
on
hand
with
the
notable
exception
of
lower
income
households.
We
have
seen
some
recent
reversal
in
terms
of
how
people
are
basically
spending
money,
how
people
are
paying
for
the
money
they're
spending
more
or
less.
What
I
have
shown
here
is
bank
account
balances,
Bank
credit
card
balances.
So
this
is
your
average
credit
card
that
you
get
from
like
the
bank
of
Bank
of
America,
for
example,
and
I've
got
this
split
out
by
credit
score.
A
But
honestly,
even
across
these
credit
scores,
is
it's
pretty
much
telling
the
same
story?
It's
telling
the
story
that
people
are
starting
to
rely
more
heavily
on
on
these
on
credit
card
balances
in
order
to
fuel
spending
at
the
start
of
the
pandemic,
people
by
and
large
took
that
Federal
stimulus
money
and
they
used
it
to
pay
down
these
credit
card
balances,
which
is
why
you
see
this
large
drop
at
the
beginning
of
the
beginning
of
the
pandemic.
But
since
then
people
are
starting
to
rely
on
these
more
heavily.
A
It's
starting
to
grow
up
you,
and
this
is
something
that
we
are
seeing
kind
of
across
the
across
the
income
Spectrum,
as
well
as
across
these
credit
card
score
Spectrum,
in
addition
to
this
I.
Don't
have
a
chart
on
this
here
today,
but
we're
starting
to
see
some
increases
in
default
rates
for
these
credit
cards,
not
just
credit
cards,
but
a
lot
of
areas
of
loans
with
the
notable
exception
of
housing.
A
Housing
people
have
stayed
on
pretty
fair
terms,
but
we
are
starting
to
see
somewhat
of
an
increase
in
those
default
rates
across
other
types
of
Lending
still
not
above
still
not
high
by
historical
standards,
but
kind
of
getting
us
back
to
a
more
normal
level
there,
because
once
again,
at
the
start
of
the
pandemic,
people
got
these
stimulus
payments.
They
were
able
to
avoid
avoid
defaulting
pay
down
these
balances
yeah
now.
A
So
our
Baseline
Outlook
kind
of
like
I've,
been
talking
about,
is
that
inflation
is
going
to
come
in.
The
labor
market
is
still
in
a
strong
enough
place
that,
even
as
the
Federal
Reserve
raises
interest
rates
to
try
to
pull
back
on
some
of
that
demand
that
that's
going
to
manifest
in
bringing
in
some
job
openings,
for
example,
having
companies
pull
back
on
hiring
by
pulling
back
on
hiring
we're
going
to
take
some
pressure
off
of
wages,
and
that
in
turn,
is
going
to
help
inflation
kind
of
come
under
control.
A
Along
with
these
external
factors,
that
I
was
talking
about
earlier
now,
there's
still
a
lot
that
could
go
wrong.
The
Federal,
Reserve
historically,
doesn't
have
an
awesome
track
record
of
raising
interest
rates
without
spurring
a
recession.
So
while
we
think
they're
still
on
that
path,
that'll,
let
us
avoid
it.
A
There's
definitely
factors
at
play
that
could
lead
us
into
one
of
those
lower
scenarios
that
I
showed
at
the
beginning,
the
first
and
likely
oh
to
describe
this,
though
this
is
a
risk
Matrix,
and
so
these
are
fairly
subjective
scores
on
the
left
here
and
they're
kind
of
a
list
of
different
things
that
could
go
wrong.
There's
a
lot
out
there,
but
that's
just
because
we're
at
a
risky
place
in
the
business
cycle
right
now.
A
One's
higher
up
on
this
chart
are
things
that
we
think
subjectively
are
more
likely
risks
that
are
more
likely
to
come
to
pass
and
then
once
further
to
the
right
on
this
chart
are
ones
that
would
have
a
more
severe
impact.
The
severity
of
the
shock
would
be
higher.
So
what
we
really
need
to
worry
about
is
things
on
the
top
right
of
this,
and
so
I'd
like
to
call
your
attention
to
two
different
ones
here.
Those
are
in
blue
first,
one
is
kind
of
what
we've
been
talking
about.
A
The
Federal
Reserve
is
raising
rates,
but
if
they
overdo
that,
if
they
raise
rates
too
quickly,
that
could
lead
us
into
recession
by
pulling
back
on
that
demand
too
fast,
causing
businesses
to
not
just
remove
some
of
those
openings,
not
just
to
pull
back
on
hiring
and
maybe
not
replace,
lost
positions,
but
lead
to
actual
layoffs.
That
would
be
that
would
be
fodder
for
a
recession.
A
Now.
The
risk
here
is
that
we
don't
see
all
of
the
impacts
of
hiring
higher
interest
rates
immediately.
It
takes
time
for
that
to
play
out
in
the
economy
and
there's
different
kind
of
fault
lines
that
this
can
play
out
and
one
of
which
I
referred
to
earlier,
which
is
the
housing
market.
Another
one
is
related
to
just
the
global
economy
and
the
impact
that
what
our
policy
and
policy
at
home
has
on
the
global
economy
and
how
that
can
reduce
global
economic
growth,
which
then
can
give
us
a
feedback.
A
Loop
I'll
talk
about
that
a
little
bit
later,
but
because
this
is
a
very
kind
of
difficult
path
and
because
not
all
of
the
impacts
are
seen
immediately.
It's
difficult
to
know
in
the
moment
whether
they're
raising
rates
to
the
appropriate
degree
or
whether
that
over
tightening
is
going
to
cause
greater
instability
in
credit
markets,
whether
it's
going
to
cause
a
steeper
pullback
than
we'd
like
so
that's
risk.
A
One
Risk
2
here
is
related
to
an
external
shock,
and
this
is
what
we
were
talking
about
back
when
we're
on
that
CPI
chart,
and
this
is
that
something
could
happen
whether
it's
an
energy
shock,
whether
it's
the
situation
with
Russia.
Currently
that
could
cause
kind
of
a
supply-driven
increase
in
prices,
and
this
is
something
like
we've
been
talking
about.
The
Federal
Reserve
is
not
well
equipped
to
confront,
and
this
could
put
us
into
a
stagflation
situation.
A
So
a
situation
where
economic
growth
is
slower
and
inflation
gets
harder
to
bring
under
control
and
the
end
result
of
that
would
have
to
be
a
steeper
recession
than
where
then
we'd
even
consider
under
this
first
potential
downside,
because
the
Federal
Reserve
would
need
to
take
much
more
Extreme
Action
in
order
to
kind
of
reduce
those
the
feedback
loops.
That
would
be
driving
inflation
at
that
point,
so
we
perhaps
are
on
the
optimistic
side
here.
A
We
think
that
things
are
going
to
continue
on
a
decently
positive
route,
definitely
slower
but
moving
in
the
right
direction,
but
there's
a
lot
that
could
go
wrong
and
I
think
it's
important
to
keep
those
potential
risks
in
mind
and
to
kind
of
have
an
idea
of
what
to
look
out
for
to
see
whether
we
might
be
shifting
onto
one
of
those
other
trajectories.
A
Do
you
want
any
questions
now
or
okay,
okay,
yeah
for
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal?
If
you
don't
mind,
I
think
it'd
be
nice
just
to
pause
before
we
get
into
the
specific
revenue
forecast
to
see.
If
anybody
has
any
questions
on
your
your
overview,
numbers.
A
A
I
suppose,
if
you
look
at
it,
if
we
provide
revenues
that
are
too
generous
the
legislature,
this
next
session
acts
on
those
and
appropriates
money
for
them,
and
then
it
doesn't
come
true.
They
end
up
in
the
cash
shortage
and,
of
course,
if
we
do
the
opposite,
then
they
there's
programs.
They
could
have
established
that
they
don't.
A
Now.
If
you
are
in
our
position,
you
know
in
December,
we've
got
to
come
up
with
some
estimates
for
two
and
a
half
years,
and
given
the
the
risks
that
are
out
there,
what
recommendations
would
you
give
us
for
what
you
think
we
would
do,
based
on
your
knowledge
of
the
economy
and
also
I
suppose
the
risks
that's
involved
in
any
determination
that
we
make?
A
Thank
you.
The
the
risks
that
we're
facing
currently
are
very
clearly
skewed
to
the
downside
here,
there's
very
little
that
could
go
right
and
could
put
on
us
on
a
better
trajectory
than
what
we
have
in
our
Baseline
right
now.
There's
some
things:
there's
not
that
many
and
so
I
think
there
is
reason
not
to
place
a
recession
into
the
Outlook
just
because
there's
still
a
lot
of
support
in
the
economy
still
because
things
are
moving
in
the
right
direction,
but
I
do
think.
A
There's
some
cause
to
I,
guess,
handicapped
those
outlooks
a
little
bit
to
slant
things
a
little
to
the
Lower
Side
because
of
these
risks.
It's
it's
a
difficult
position,
wherein
it's
a
difficult
position,
you're
in
as
well
part
of
the
reason
that
we're
trying
to
you
know
synthesize
every
new
piece
of
information
that
comes
in
to
kind
of
see
how
this
is
shifting
on
a
moment
by
moment
basis,
because
that
seems
what
it
is.
I
think
that
a
little
bit
of
caution
is
definitely
warranted
in
the
current
environment,
but
it
is.
A
It
is
far
from
certain
that
will
enter
a
recession
right
now,
so
I
wouldn't
I,
wouldn't
recommend
pricing
that
into
your
your
outlook
at
this
point
in
time.
But
it's
it's
a
different
one
place.
A
I
was
hoping
you
could
talk
a
little
bit
about
the
employment
picture.
Excuse
me
before
I
would
agree
with
you.
The
forecast
does
seem,
or
the
Baseline
forecast
seems
I'm
called
optimistic,
but
you
know
certainly
must
be
underpinned
in
assumptions
around
employment
and
things
of
that
entry.
Could
you
could
you
talk
about
the
employment
or
unemployment
levels
that
are
factored
into
the
forecast,
the
base
the
Baseline
forecast?
A
Yes,
definitely
thank
you.
So
the
the
employment
picture
currently
is
is
very
strong.
We
have
I,
think
I,
don't
remember
the
national
I
think
Nevada
there's
something
like
1.6
openings
for
every
person,
who's
actively
looking
for
work
right
now
and
so
they're
still
is
a
significant
amount
of
demand
for
labor.
A
There's
still
a
significant
number
of
open
positions
out
there
and
there's
still
been
fairly
strong
growth
across
the
you
know
across
Industries
to
focus
a
bit
more
on
Nevada
there's
been
very
strong
growth
in
a
broad
array
of
kind
of
private
Services,
especially
more
white
collar
services
in
Nevada,
seeing
some
weakness,
or
at
least
some
flatlining
more
in
the
Leisure
hospitality
industry,
but
I
think
a
lot
of
that
is
coming
from
just
labor
shortages,
people
not
being
able
to
find
the
workers
that
they
want
to
hire,
or
at
least
not
without
putting
huge
pressure
up
on
on
wages.
A
A
Businesses
will
essentially
be
adding
only
enough
workers
to
prevent
I'm
trying
to
think
of
numbers
here,
essentially
only
adding
workers
slowly,
we
have
the
unemployment
rate
Rising
slightly
in
the
forecast,
at
least
I
think
coming
up
by
about
a
half
a
percentage
point,
and
that's
because
we're
going
to
see
we
plan
to
see,
we
assume
that
labor
force
increase
is
increasing
a
bit
faster,
even
than
businesses
are
adding
workers,
and
so
part
of
that
is
taking
pressure
off
of
wages.
But
the
net
result
is
we
get
a
small
increase
in
the
unemployment
rate.
A
Thank
you
for
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal
just
a
couple,
quick
questions
in
the
near
term.
If,
if
we
went
into
your
first
downside
scenario
and
we
did
go
into
a
into
a
recession,
do
you
see
that
having
an
impact
on
the
longer
term
through
our
forecast
cycle,
or
do
you
see
it
kind
of
as
a
temporary
impact?
And
then
we
get
back
to
your
assumptions
for
growth
in
23
and
24
or
24
and
25.?
A
Yes,
I
am
chair.
I
think
that
it
would
be
the
timing
of
that
I
think
is
important,
I
think.
If
we
were
to
enter
a
recession
scenario,
it
would
be
hitting
us
more
in
the
around
the
middle
to
the
second
half
of
next
calendar
year
right
just
because
that's
when
this
kind
of
the
pressures
we're
seeing
that
would
would
lead
to
some
job
losses
because
of
this
labor
force
strength
that
we've
seen
currently
I
think
it
would
take
a
bit
of
time
for
that
to
materialize.
So
that's
around
the
timing.
A
We'd
see
as
far
as
whether
we'd
see
the
growth
rates
in
the
outlying
fiscal
years
come
back.
I
think
yes
in
fiscal
2025,
but
we
would
see
some
downside
there
in
the
interim
and
then
also
the
growth
rates
coming
back
doesn't
mean
that
would
be
totally
at
the
levels
that
we
would
see
previously.
I'd
anticipate
that
we
would
have
that
near-term
contraction,
stronger
growth
even
than
the
Baseline
as
we
get
some
of
the
recovery
from
that
like
I,
showed
in
this
first
slide.
We're
not.
We
wouldn't
anticipate
this.
A
This
would
be
a
particularly
deep
recession
there,
but
I
don't
think
the
levels
would
probably
be
totally
back
to
the
Baseline
level
in
the
outer
great,
that's
very
helpful,
and
then
last
one
for
me
is
just
you
know.
We've
talked
about
this
narrow
path
that
we're
on
to
to
stay
on
the
Baseline
and
not
dip
into
the
downside
scenario.
We've
talked
about
the
fact
that
there's
probably
potential
for
for
bigger
negative
impact
than
positives
with
with
some
of
the
potential
drivers.
A
Just
how
would
you
characterize
how
narrow
that
path
is
like
what
kind
of
buffer
do
we
have
I
mean?
Are
we
just
on
the
edge
in
any
one?
Little
down
you
know,
downside
scenario
coming
to
fruition
would
would
cause
us
going
to
the
recession
or
do
you
think
excuse
me,
there's
a
significant
amount
of
buffer
there.
A
I
think
that
the
buffer
is
fairly
small,
I
I
think
that
the
the
most
recent
CPI
report
kind
of
reduced
my
recession,
probabilities
like
internally
I,
think
that
was
a
move
in
the
right
distraction,
but
you
know
any
one
number,
any
one
report,
one
report
only
changes
things
you
know
so
much.
We
can
see
a
reversal
of
that
later,
so
I
I
think
we're
particularly
susceptible
to
external
shocks.
A
At
this
point
in
time,
the
real
question
is:
how
fast
would
businesses
pair
back
on
their
positions
if
they
felt
like
the
economy,
was
moving
in
a
bad
Direction,
because
we
have
seen
some
reduction
in
confidence
recently
and
as
well
as
some
industries
that
are
more
susceptible
to
interest
rates,
we're
already
seeing
some
some
contraction
there,
particularly
in
the
housing
sector,
particularly
in
tech
companies,
so
that
hasn't
manifested
more
broadly
in
the
economy,
because
other
companies
aren't
as
reliant
on
on
kind
of
the
short-term
financing.
A
But
it's
definitely
with
a
there's,
definitely
risk
there
and
there's
definitely
some
reduction
in
just
confidence
there
and
I
think
if
something
else
external
went
wrong
here
in
order
to
further
destroy
that
confidence
to
make
businesses
even
more
wary
than
they
are
currently
then
I
think
that
could
lead
us
into
a
recession
scenario.
A
Thank
you
absolutely.
So.
In
each
of
the
scenarios
you
laid
out
there's
varying
degrees
of
kind
of
bounce
back
in
the
economy
and
the
Baseline
there's
a
moderate
bounce
back
in
the
moderate
recession.
There's
a
sharper
bounce
back
and
in
the
stagflation
scenario,
there's
an
even
sharper
bounce
back.
Could
you
talk
about
maybe
some
of
the
the
drivers
behind
that
and
what
some
of
the
assumptions
behind
that
are?
A
Yes,
first
off
I
think
it's
important
to
reiterate
that
this
this
chart
chart
one
is
in
growth
rights
right.
So,
despite
the
fact
that
we
might
have
stronger
bounce
back
in
those
growth
rates,
it
doesn't
necessarily.
B
Mean
that
in
level
terms
we
are
back
where
we
would
have
been
without
the
recession
kind
of
harking
back
to
the
chairs
question
earlier.
A
That
in
in
this
moderate
recession
scenario,
we
would
see
businesses
start
to
pull
back
on
these
payrolls.
We
would
see
job
losses,
but
as
the
economy
stabilized
as
the
Federal
Reserve
then
reduces
interest
rates
from
its
current
level.
In
our
Baseline
case,
we
have
interest
rates,
Staying
High
at
their
kind
of
terminal
rate
in
through
2020
calendar
2024.
In
a
downside
scenario,
we
would
see
interest
rates
start
to
come
in
sooner
than
that
right,
because
there
would
be
this,
you
know
downside
in
the
colony
which
would
bring
in
inflation
kind
of
on
its
own.
A
A
Part
of
the
risk
to
the
downside
scenario
is
that
the
federal
government
likely
wouldn't
step
in
with
significant
Federal
stimulus
fiscal
stimulus
at
this
point,
just
because
of
the
outlays
of
the
past
couple
of
years
have
been
quite
large
and
because
we're
entering
a
divided
government
situation
at
the
national
level
that
would
likely
be
on
the
smaller
side.
We'd
still
see
some
automatic
stabilizers
things
like
Medicaid
increases
and
things
like
unemployment
insurance
coming
into
play.
A
At
this
point,
in
the
in
the
stagflation
scenario,
the
reason
that
we
see
a
steeper
drop
there
is
because
monetary
policy
interest
rates
need
to
stay
higher
for
longer,
because
inflation
has
become
so
entrenched
in
that
scenario,
and
that's
part
of
the
reason
that
we
see
this
growth
remaining
negative
for
longer,
because
there
isn't
really
that
that
stimulus
there
isn't
really
that
that
momentum
to
kind
of
bring
us
out
of
that
sooner,
and
so
we
eventually
get
a
stronger
rebound
once
inflation
finally
does
come
under
control.
A
So
two
we
discussed
this
a
little
bit
earlier,
but
to
kind
of
shift
things
into
a
Nevada
Focus
here
the
the
Nevada
labor
market
is
quite
healthy
at
this
time,
just
like
with
the
national
economy
and
honestly,
even
more
dramatically
in
a
way
Nevada's
bounced
back
from
this
recession.
Nevada
was
hit
especially
hard
at
the
start
of
the
pandemic,
and
it's
really
made
huge
progress
in
coming
out
of
that
job.
Total
employment
is
higher
than
where
it
was
before.
A
Unemployment
rate
is
very
low
right
now
by
historical
standards.
That's
the
green
line
here
on
this
chart,
and
then
we
also
have
the
blue
line
here
on
this
chart,
which
is
job
openings
which
I
keep
talking
about
here,
because
it's
been
a
major
Hallmark
of
this
economic
recovery.
Just
that
we
have
this
huge
amount
of
job
openings.
We
have
this
kind
of
unfulfilled
demand
for
labor
at
this
moment
in
time
and
so
we're
starting
to
see
some
of
that
come
in.
A
We
started
to
see
openings
come
in
which,
to
be
honest,
is
what
we
want
at
this
point,
but
the
labor
market,
Still
Remains
in
very
strong
shape,
and
that's
part
of
what's
going
to
underpin
my
Revenue
Productions
that
we're
going
to
talk
about
in
a
minute
under
the
Baseline
scenario
that
we've
laid
out
here
in
these
projections.
D
So,
in
our
outlook
for
sales
and
use
tax
revenues,
we've
had
absolutely
massive
growth
by
historical
standards.
In
the
past
two
years,
nine
percent
growth
in
fiscal
2021,
followed
by
almost
22
growth
in
fiscal
2022..
Now
this
was
much
stronger
growth
than
we
had
anticipated
in
our
prior
Revenue
Outlook,
part
of
that's
coming
from
stimulus.
D
Part
of
that
is
coming
from
the
really
strong
recovery
we've
seen
kind
of
in
in
tourism,
in
people
moving
to
State
and
consumer
spending
here,
and
then
part
of
that
is
also
coming
from
inflation,
because
these
sales
tax
collections
are
are
nominal
terms,
the
higher
that
the
price
is
of
the
good
that
you
buy,
the
more
those
Associated
Tax
collections
are
going
to
be
so
we
have
for
our
Outlook
is
fairly
strong
growth
of
eight
percent
in
fiscal
2023.
D
There
are
two
major
positives
major
supports
for
these
revenues.
First
of
those
is
what
I
discussed
previously
is
inflation.
We
have
inflation
nationally
at
around
eight
percent
in
calendar
2020.
D
It's
still
2022
I
keep
thinking,
it's
23
already
calendar
2022
coming
down
to
around
four
percent,
so
really
that
growth
is
basically
keeping
on
track
with
inflation,
at
least
in
the
near
term.
The
other
positive
there
is
the
labor
market.
We've
seen
some
strength
in
the
Nevada
labor
market.
Like
I
just
discussed,
we
also
have
strengthened
Nevada's
population.
A
growing
population
is
a
huge
and
probably
the
main
driver
of
increased
sales
in
an
economy.
D
On
the
negative
side.
There,
though,
is
demand
for
credit,
is
going
to
be
constrained
by
higher
interest
rates,
as
credit
gets
more
expensive
both
for
households
and
for
businesses.
That's
pulling
in
some
of
that
and
then
also
labor
market
is
strong
currently,
but
starting
to
cool
a
little
bit.
So
getting
some
cooling
there.
D
This
is
this
next
chart
is
just
a
chart
of
historical
population
growth
in
Nevada,
because
this
population
growth
has
been
one
of
the
the
main
supports
of
consumer
spending.
The
the
two
drivers
that
we
use
for
this
sales
and
use
tax
forecast
are
personal
consumption
expenditures,
so
just
spending
by
households
in
Nevada,
as
well
as
wage
and
salary
income,
personal
consumption
offenders
have
been
supported
by
both
inflation.
Like
we
talked
about
population
as
well
as
that
that
chart
we
talked
about
earlier
about
the
huge
amount
of
cash
in
the
economy.
D
That's
that
chart
I
showed
is
at
the
national
level,
because,
unfortunately,
we
don't
have
a
Nevada
level
data
for
that,
but
I
imagine
that
the
situation
is
very
similar.
D
Wage
and
salary
income
in
turn
has
been
driven
by
the
tightness
in
the
labor
market.
That's
put
a
lot
of
pressure
on
wages.
We
think
some
of
that
growth
is
going
to
come
in,
but
it's
still
remaining
positive.
It's
still
supporting
it,
but
not
to
the
degree
that
we
saw
over
the
past
two
years
when
we
had
those
really
massively
strong
recovery
in
sales
tax
revenue.
D
Okay.
We
also
think
that,
as
people
start
kind
of
eating
into
their
savings,
a
bit
as
people
start
bringing
up
some
of
those
credit
card
balances,
maybe
not
the
healthiest
way
to
finance
growth,
but
we're
seeing
that
and
that's
going
to
be
another
thing
that
is
driving
spending
as
people
keep
spending
through
these
impacts
of
higher
prices,
because
a
lot
of
the
areas
that
we're
seeing
higher
prices
are
aren't
exactly
avoidable
things
like
automobile
prices.
Things
like
spending
prices
for
different
Goods.
D
Those
are
things
that
lower
income,
households
or
middle-income
households
still
need
to
put
this
funding
towards
a
lot
of
those
still
have
money
in
reserve,
but
they
will
also
rely
more
heavily
on
on
loans
on
lending
in
order
to
keep
those
spending
afloat
as
the
economy
gets
a
little
bit
weaker.
D
Did
you
want
to
discuss
the
sales
tax
Outlook
or
do
you
want
me
to
go
over
into
the
gaming
tax
and
then
come
back
to
this?
We
can.
We
can
pause
real
quickly
if
anybody
has
any
questions
on
the
state
sales
tax.
Otherwise,
we
can
move
forward.
D
Three
okay
sales
tax
to
me
is
kind
of
a
difficult
one
because
it
involves
so
many
different
complexities,
one
that
looked
like
one.
We
have
the
situation
where
daily
almost
daily
consumption.
You
know
you
buy
things
for
use
immediately
and
that's
one
component
of
it.
Of
course,
the
next
component
of
it
is
when
you're
going
into
debt
for
something
you
expect
to
pay
off
over
the
next
several
years.
D
Now,
that
is,
is
somewhat
dependent
on
an
individual's
perception
as
to
what's
going
to
happen
in
the
economy
and
then,
of
course,
if
we
got
the
construction
expenditures
which
are
driven
by
I,
suppose
perception,
as
well
as
interest
rates,
of
course,
where
they're
borrowing
money
from
it.
So
we've
got
all
of
those
sort
of
a
mix
coming
together
in
the
sales
tax
sort
of
a
unique
in
a
way,
a
unique
tax
for
all
of
the
ones
that
we've
that
we've
got
and
I.
D
Yes,
thank
you,
I
think.
That's!
It's
a
good
question.
There's
a
lot
of
moving
parts
that
we're
looking
at
at
this
right
now,
I
think
we've
seen
some
contraction
and
just
consumer
sentiment
surveys.
Some
of
that
feeling
about
the
economy
has
started
to
come
in,
but
we
haven't
seen
a
similar
change
to
actual
spending
habits,
so
I
think
at
least
in
the
current
environment.
In
some
ways
people
are
spending
differently
than
at
least
how
they're
saying
they
feel
about
the
economy.
D
Even
part
of
this
has
been
honestly
going
past
expectations
in
the
wake
of
the
pandemic
people
people
stocked
up
on
a
huge
amount
of
goods,
they
refurnished
their
houses,
they
bought
their
patio
furniture
things
that
would
make
their
you
know
under
quarantine,
lives
better
and
we
have
kind
of
expected
to
see
a
stronger
shift
towards
spending
on
Services
away
from
spending
on
Goods
than
we've.
Seen
at
this
point,
people
have
spending
on
Goods
has
been
very
resilient.
D
We
have
a
Slowdown
in
that
spending
baked
into
the
personal
consumption
expenditures
forecasts
that
we
use
as
a
driver
in
this
model
that
it's
slowing,
but
at
least
for
the
time
being
peoples
have
prove
people
have
shown
through
their
actions
that
they're
going
to
keep
keep
spending
their
keep
buying.
That
has
remained
quite
strong,
even
as
some
of
these
perceptions
of
the
economy
and
the
risk
have
kind
of
increased
I.
D
Think
a
lot
of
that
has
to
do
with
the
strength
in
the
economy
right
now
the
strength
in
the
labor
market,
it's
hard
to
feel
you
know.
I
should
pull
back
on
my
spending
when
I
still
have
a
job
and
when
wage
gains
have
been
relatively
strong.
So
there's
a
lot
of
moving
Parts,
like
you
mentioned
as
part
of
this,
at
least
for
now,
consumers
have
been
very
resilient.
We
expect
some
slowdown
of
that
spending,
but
for
now
resiliency
is
definitely
the
the
key
word
here.
D
So
this
one
is
a
bit
a
bit
different
you'll
see
that
the
growth
rates
in
this
forecast
are
definitely
lower
than
what
we're
anticipating
under
the
sales
tax
forecast.
We
kind
of
similar
in
a
way
to
the
sales
tax
forecast
is.
We
saw
massive
Rebound
in
spending
coming
out
of
this
pandemic
gaming
percentage
fee
revenues,
Rose
10,
almost
11
in
fiscal
2021,
followed
by
over
40
in
fiscal
2022..
This
is
significantly
higher
than
what
we
had
forecast
a
year
and
a
half
ago.
Part
of
that
is
honestly.
D
People
really
had
a
huge
amount
of
pent-up
demand
for
vacations.
They
had
a
huge
amount
of
penned
out
demand
for
these
kind
of
recreational
activities
for
for
coming
to
Nevada
coming
to
Clark
County,
and
so
we've
seen
some
of
that
manifest
in
this
huge
growth.
On
the
other
hand,
there
is
people
wanted
to
take
these
vacations
and
they
also
had
the
money
to
take
these
vacations
through
this
stimulus
funding.
D
Through
this
stronger
growth
in
the
labor
market,
people
have
had
the
the
financial
resources
in
order
in
to
be
able
to
to
spend
this
money
to
be
able
to
come
to
Nevada,
and
that
has
really
increased
these
revenues
here
now.
We
don't
think
that
this
is
going
to
keep
growing
at
anywhere
close
to
the
PACE.
It's
seen
we're
expecting
that
these
revenues
will
retrench
a
little
bit.
D
D
You
have
your
growing
population,
you
have
the
people
who
live
in
Nevada
who
are
going
to
keep
spending,
but
for
gaming
percentage
fees
that
has
some
more
variation
depending
on
who's,
coming
into
the
state,
how
that
tourism
is
playing
out,
and
so
we
expect
that
these
revenues
will
remain
near
their
current
levels,
but
we
are
forecasting
a
small
decline
in
fiscal
2023,
as
people
become
a
little
bit
more
cautious,
as
some
of
those
pent-up
demand
is,
has
already
been
satisfied.
D
We
then
expect
them
to
remain
around
constant
in
fiscal
2024
before
beginning
to
resume
that
growth
that
we
saw
previously
in
fiscal
2025..
A
lot
of
our
forecasts
have
this.
Even
under
our
Baseline,
which,
like
we've
been
discussing,
is
a
no
recession
scenario.
It
still
has
a
bit
of
a
cyclicality
built
into
that
there,
where
we're
expecting
slower
growth
over
the
next
couple
years,
followed
by
stronger
growth.
D
As
this
current
tightening
cycle
winds
down-
and
so
this
is
partially
what
you're
seeing
reflected
in
these
gaming
percentage
fee
forecasts:
okay,
unlike
sales
tax
collections,
where
inflation
is
in
some
ways
a
support
for
the
forecast,
because
it's
increasing
the
prices
that
people
are
spending
as
people
are
feeling
more
pressed
by
inflation
for
Rising
prices
for
energy
for
food
for
other
Goods.
That's
leaving
less
money
available
to
spend
on
revenues
that
would
be
captured
by
this
gaming
percentage
fee.
D
They
have
already
been
slower
to
return
here.
You
can
see
that
the
blue
line
here
on
that
chart
is
international
visitors
to
Harry
Reid,
International
Airport
versus
domestic
travel,
which
is
basically
totally
recovered,
so
it's
already
been
slow
to
come
back
and
the
global
economy
is
facing
significantly
more
pressure
now
than
it
has
been.
Maybe
a
year
ago,
that's
coming
from
honestly
in
large
part
from
these
higher
energy
prices,
they're
hitting
Europe
a
lot
harder
than
they're
hitting
us
we're
also
seeing
a
Slowdown
in
China.
D
In
terms
of
growth
there,
and
so
all
of
that
is
means
that
the
global
economy
is
going
to
be
weaker
for
the
next
several
years
than
the
United
States
economy.
The
other
significant
factor
here
is
that
the
dollar
is
exceptionally
strong
right
now
and
we
expect
it
to
remain
strong
by
historical
standards
over
the
next
few
years.
D
A
stronger
dollar
is
a
headwind
for
gaming
because
it
increases
the
cost
of
a
United
States,
a
domestic
vacation
relative
to
spending
that
could
be
done
overseas,
and
so
this
is
definitely
going
to
be
a
headwind
here,
and
we
don't
see
this
abating
anytime
soon.
This
has
been
driven
both
by
the
federal
reserve's
tightening
process,
as
well
as
a
flight
to
Quality,
as
we
see
stronger
performance
in
the
domestic
economy,
so
this
is
going
to
remain
a
headwind
for
the
next
several
years.
For
that
gaming
percentage
fee
forecasts
happy
happy
to
take
any
additional
questions.
D
Thank
you
very
much.
Any
questions
from
the
aforement
form
members
Mr
Chrome
hi,
for
the
record.
Michael
Chrome.
You
talked
about
the
international
visitors,
I
didn't
understand
what
your
forecast
predicts
for
them
in
the
future,
and
maybe
I
just
missed
it.
Can
you
talk
about
that?
Yes,
thank
you.
We
don't
specifically,
this
isn't
a
seriously
specifically
forecast,
but
it's
a
part
that's
playing
into
this
recreational
spending.
That
is
a
driver
for
the
revenue
forecast.
We
have
the
the
Baseline
would
be
that
it's
fairly
weak.
D
D
D
Thank
you,
madam
chair.
Sorry,
I
just
need
to
confer
with
Miss
Mandel
as
to
her
schedule
as
we
move
forward
in
the
agenda,
and
so
as
you're,
probably
already
familiar
with
on
this
agenda
item.
There
are
numerous
charts
and
tables
that
I
have
been
part
of
the
economic
forums
process
for
over
a
decade,
and
so
I
don't
plan
on
going
to
them.
They're
there
for
the
members
and
or
the
public
to
look
at.
D
They
have
been
updated
to
include
one
more
month
of
the
gaming
Market
statistics
that
The
Gaming
Control
Board
reports
each
month
and
then
the
taxable
sales
numbers
that
the
Department
of
Taxation
reports
since
this
body
met
in
October.
The
Commerce
tax
tables
are
the
same
from
last
meeting.
We
just
rolled
them
over
because
that's
a
fiscal
year
tax,
so
we
only
get
the
information
annually,
and
so
they
are
there
and
again.
D
If
there
are
any
questions
of
this
body
as
we
go
through
the
agenda
today
that
the
tables
might
be
useful
than
Madam
chair
members,
we
can
pull
them
up
and
and
make
use
of
them.
But
again,
that's
all
the
information
that
I
want
to
provide
that
that's
the
same
set
of
charts
they've
been
updated
with
an
additional
month
and
we
will
continue
we'll
update
them
for
the
December
meeting,
with
an
additional
month
of
data
for
both
the
gaming
and
taxable
sales,
and
with
that
Madam,
chair
and
members
of
the
form.
D
D
before
we
begin
this
agenda
item
just
given
where
we
are
in
this
economy
and
the
uncertainty
ahead
of
us
in
particular,
in
this
forecast
cycle,
I
want
to
get
a
better
understanding
of
of
the
underlying
assumptions
of
each
forecaster,
similar
to
what
we
did
with
Moody's
Analytics.
So
I
would
like
to
ask
each
forecaster
to
provide
information
on
their
General
assumptions
or
Outlook
that
they
used
in
developing
their
forecasts
for
the
various
Revenue
sources.
D
This
information
doesn't
necessarily
need
to
be
provided
on
the
presentation
for
each
Revenue
Source,
but
more
just
general,
a
general
overview
on
their
views
of
the
economy,
the
outlook
for
the
future
and
any
specific
assumptions
used
in
creating
their
forecasts.
That
will
help
us
understand
the
context
behind
those
forecasts.
D
So
with
that,
we'll
start
off
with
agenda
item
6A,
which
is
our
first
tax,
the
gaming
percentage
fee,
tax
and
I
believe
we'll
start
with
a
presentation
by
Mr
Lawton,
yeah
Madam
for
the
record
Russell
again
and
if
I
may,
just
again
as
I
have
historically
done,
and
yes
so
Mr,
Lawton
and
Mr
can
come
to
the
table.
D
For
this
start
with
the
percentage
fees,
but
I
just
wanted
to
go
through
quickly
the
various
tables
and
information
that's
inside
and
outside
the
packet
for
the
members,
but
also
for
the
public
that
may
be
listening
or
watching
over
the
web.
So
what
you
have
is
a
that
you
have
clearly
outside
the
packet.
There
are
separate
handouts
that
have
been
prepared
by
the
budget
office
or
I
may
end
up,
saying:
gfo,
the
governor's
finance
office,
taxation,
The,
Gaming,
Control,
Board
and
physical.
D
So
you
have
those
four
as
separate
pack
items
outside
the
packet,
then
inside
the
packet
on
page
35.
You
have
the
actual
table
that
shows
the
actual
collections
for
the
last
three
years
and
then
fiscal
year
to
date
for
every
Revenue
Source,
just
in
case
reference
is
needed
and
then
on
page
45
you
have
Table
Three.
D
That
is
the
table
that
compiles
for
each
unrestricted
general
fund,
Revenue
Source
the
forecast
by
forecaster,
that
is
the
agency,
that's
responsible
for
administering
and
collecting
that
tax
and
then
the
one
prepared
by
the
fiscal
analysis,
Division
and
then
the
one
prepared
by
the
budget
office
and
and
so
then,
as
we
get
into
those
minor
revenues
that
are
in
that
table,
we'll
get
to
another
agenda
item
with
regards
to
the
technical
advisory
committee,
and
so
that
begins
on
page
45.
On
page
53,.
A
C
Then,
finally,
on
for
this
on
page
57,
you
have
a
table
eight,
which
is
also
on
green
paper
outside
the
packet.
This
is
the
table,
especially
for
the
two
new
members
that,
where
we're
showing
you
the
forecast
by
forecaster,
but
then,
as
we
add,
the
December
forecast,
we'll
bring
this
to
table
back
and
that
allows
you
to
see
the
compare
and
contrast
not
only
across
the
forecasters
for
each
Revenue
Source,
but
how
those
forecasters
may
be
changing
their
forecast
between
November
and
December.
So
I
just
wanted
to
go
through
that.
C
What
we're
doing
there
and
then
beginning
on
page
65.
You
have
tables
for
the
modified
business
tax
and
we
did
this
actually
four
years
ago
to
show
with
the
MBT,
because
it
has
the
tax
rate
reduction
due
to
the
rate
reduction
calculation
Provisions.
So
there's
a
set
of
tables
there
that
show
the
MBT
before
without
the
rate
reduction
and
then
with
the
rate
reduction
and
then
we'll
cover
that
more.
C
D
New
document
for
this
meeting
that
takes
the
major
forecasts
but
Revenue
sources
by
forecaster
and
puts
it
graphically
as
well
as
because
we
have
numerous
tabular
formats
for
it,
and
so
though,
and
then
we
have,
as
I
said,
table
eight
is
the
green
outside
and
then
with
Madam
chair.
That
was
the
stuff
I
wanted
to
go
to
this
agenda
item.
D
When
we
get
to
the
minor
or
technical
advisor
committee,
there'll
be
some
additional
tables
I
want
to
reference,
and
and
with
that
Madam
chair,
we
can
proceed
and
then
I
will
attempt
to
run
the
slides
for
each
presenter,
and
so,
if
they
can
just
sort
of,
let
me
know
I
will
try
and
watch
and
keep
tabs.
Thank
you.
D
Good
morning,
member
Rosenthal
and
members
of
the
economic
forum
for
the
record
Michael
Lawton
senior
economic
analyst
with
the
Nevada
Gaming
Control
Board.
It
is
good
to
be
back
in
the
building.
It's
good
to
see
us
face
to
face
and
have
these
these
discussions
happy
to
be
here
per
chair,
rosenthal's
request
before
I
get
into
the
nuts
and
bolts
of
my
numbers.
I
have
a
brief
statement.
D
Las
Vegas
Strip
will
host
two
large
city-wide
conventions,
the
CES
show
in
January,
and
the
con
Expo
con
AG
show
in
March.
These
two
conventions
are
not
expected
to
be
negatively
impacted
by
a
surge
of
covid-19
cases,
as
was
experienced
during
the
beginning
of
calendar
year
22
through
the
Omicron
variant.
Additionally,
T-Mobile
Arena
will
host
sweet,
16
and
Elite
8
NCAA
Men's
Basketball
tournament
games
in
March
of
2023.
D
The
models
have
obviously
taken
these
events
into
consideration,
in
addition
to
an
expected
moderation
in
the
current
levels
of
gamingwin,
due
to
an
anticipated
pullback
in
consumer
spending
as
a
consequence
of
inflation,
Rising
interest
rates
and
volatility
in
the
stock
market,
with
the
Federal
Reserve
attempting
to
lower
inflation
by
ongoing
interest
rate
hikes,
the
gaming
industry
continues
to
look
for
signs
of
a
Slowdown
in
consumer
spending.
Although
these
Trends
have
not
surfaced
yet
on
the
Las
Vegas
Strip,
it
would
seem
reasonable
to
assume
some
impact
over
time
on
Leisure
spending.
D
D
Under
this
scenario,
gaming,
when
amounts
would
still
be
in
in
a
range
of
between
12
and
18
percent
above
pre-pandemic
levels
of
gross
gaming,
when
recorded
during
fy19
That's
My
overall
statement.
I
can
answer
any
more
questions
after
but
I'd
like
to
get
into
the
actual
revenue
forecast.
If
that's
okay
during
my
discussion,
obviously
I'll
be
referring
to
a
set
of
charts
of
which
you
have
received
a
copy
in
forecasting
percentage
fee
collections,
we
first
forecast
gaining
win
for
the
applicable
fiscal
years.
A
Convert
that
into
taxable
gaining
win
and,
lastly,
into
percentage
free
collections.
We
project
growth
rates
for
the
state's
16
individual
major
markets,
such
as
the
Strip
Las
Vegas,
downtown,
the
Las
Vegas
locals
Reno
Elko
South,
Shore,
Lake,
Tahoe
Etc.
Any
new
properties
are
incorporated
into
our
models,
any
property
expansions
and
known
or
anticipated
closings
as
well.
This
is
done
through
a.
D
The
sum
of
these
individual
Market
forecasts
produces
an
estimate
of
total
Statewide
gaming
win
Within
These
markets.
We
also
forecast
slot
win
and
games
Win
separately,
so
my
first
chart,
which
is
up
there,
is
the
outline
for
the
state
of
Nevada's
gross
Gaming
revenue
for
the
next
three
years
for
FY
23,
the
forecasted
gaming
win,
total
is
14.7
billion,
which
is
an
increase
of
1.3
percent.
Over
FY
22.
D
FY
22
represented
the
highest
win
total
all-time
in
State
history,
with
14.5
billion
dollars
in
win
currently
fiscal
year.
To
date,
the
state
is
up
to
3.8
percent
or
184.4
billion
million
dollars,
and
for
the
remaining
eight
months
of
the
fiscal
year
we
are
facing
a
growth
rate
growth
rate
of
35.2
percent,
as
I
assume
you
know,
Nevada
has
registered
19
consecutive
months
going
back
to
March
of
2021
of
Gaming
revenue
in
excess
of
one
billion
dollars,
with
no
clear
sign
of
this
streak
ending
anytime
soon.
We.
A
Can
a
safe,
we
can
safely
assume
that
this
is
a
long-term
Trend
and
looking
back
at
FY
19
as
our
base
year
has
become
very
unrealistic.
In
our
opinion,
the
base
is
FY
22
and
we
will
either
increase
or
decrease
off
of
this
fiscal
year.
Moving
forward,
the
State's
record
level
of
gaining
win
over
this
time
period
can
be
attributed
to
several
factors,
including
stimulus,
steady
demand
for
gaming
related
activities
by
resilient
customers,
whose
Behavior
has
remained
consistent
in
the
face
of
several
challenges,
which
include
record
levels
of
inflation
and
fuel
prices.
D
D
D
D
Moving
to
my
next
chart,
the
Las
Vegas
strips
forecasted
gaming
win
total
for
FY
23
is
8.3
billion
dollars,
which
is
an
increase
of
three
and
a
half
percent
over
FY
22.
fiscal
year.
To
date,
The
Strip
is
up
7.6
percent
or
200
and
202.2
million
dollars.
For
the
remaining
eight
months
of
the
fiscal
year.
The
strip
is
facing
a
growth
rate
of
60.6
percent.
D
As
the
chart
illustrates,
gaining
win
on
The
Strip
is
also
at
all
time
record
levels.
The
totals
are
being
driven
by
the
factors
the
factors
mentioned
in
the
previous
slide,
as
well
as
multiple
signature.
Special
events
which
have
occurred
since
June
of
last
year,
sports
and
entertainment
calendar
has.
F
Music
festivals
and
multiple
high-profile
sporting
events,
the
strip
has
truly
become
the
greatest
Arena
on
Earth
in
fy24.
The
board
is
forecasting
the
strips
gaming
window
total
eight
billion
dollars,
which
is
a
decrease
of
three
percent
from
FY
23
for
fy25.
The
board
is
forecasting
the
strips
gaming
wind
to
be
7.9
billion,
which
is
a.
D
Starting
with
our
forecast
for
slot
win,
I
think
Rusty,
you
have
the
chart
up.
Yes,
slot
wind
began
to
recover
in
FY
21
and
in
22
slotwin
recorded
its
highest
win
ever
with
9.8
billion
in
win,
which
was
driven
by
near
record
volumes
in
FY
22,
with
136.8
billion
in
coin.
In
the
slot
to
put
things
into
perspective,
the
slot
win
figure
for
FY
22
is
17.7
percent.
Above
the
all-time
record,
win
amount
established
in
fy07,
which
was
8.4
billion
for
FY
23.
D
The
board
projects
slot
one
will
be
up
0.5
percent
this
year,
totaling
9.9
billion
dollars
fiscal
year.
To
date,
slot
win
is
up,
1.5
percent
or
48.4
million
dollars,
and
volumes
are
up
2.9
percent
or
1.3
billion
dollars.
The
comparison
of
the
remaining
eight
months
is
an
increase
of
nearly
30
percent.
In
fy24.
The
board
is
forecasting
slot
wind
to
decrease
four
percent,
with
a
total
of
9.5
billion
in
win
and
down
1.4
percent
in
FY
25,
with
9.4
billion
in
slot
women,
the
business
activity
the
state
is
experiencing
and
Slots
remain
stable.
D
D
However,
as
you
can
see,
game
and
table
wind
recorded
its
highest
total
win
ever
in
FY
22,
with
4.7
billion
in
win,
which
was
driven
by
near
record
volumes
in
FY
22,
with
26
billion
dollars
in
drop
the
camp.
The
game
and
table
wind
figure
in
FY
22
was
six
percent
above
the
all-time
record,
win
amount
established
in
FY
14,
which
was
4.4
billion
dollars,
although
not
as
robust
as
the
slot
win
tables
games.
When
amounts
are
still
very.
D
Far
East
in
FY
14
at
its
peak
baccaratwind
totaled
1.6
billion
dollars
in
FY,
22
baccarat,
wind
totaled,
1.1
billion
dollars,
which
was
511
million
dollars
or
31.8
percent
below
the
peak
for
the
fiscal
year.
Baccarat
is
currently
up,
21.2
percent
or
80
million
dollars,
and
volumes
are
up.
8.3
percent
or
215
million
dollars.
Baccarat
this
fiscal
year
so
far
has
been
benefited
from
an
elevated
hold
percentage
of
around
16.3
percent
compared
to
14
and
a
half
percent.
D
This
time
last
year
on
the
non-baccarat
side
of
the
Leisure
Ledger
non-bockerock
game
and
table
wind
set
an
all-time
record
in
FY
22,
with
3.6
billion
in
win,
which
was
up
4.6
above
the
all-time
record
of
3.4
billion,
set
in
fyo
seven
for
the
fiscal
year.
Non-Baqarah
win
is
currently
up,
56
million
or
4.9
percent,
while
non
baccarat
drop
is
up.
4.6
percent
or
366
million
for
FY
23.
The
board
forecast
game
and
table
win
will
be
up.
2.8
percent
totaling
4.8
billion
dollars
fiscal
year.
D
D
The
board
projects,
taxable
Gaming
revenue,
will
Peak
at
14.2
billion,
which
is
point
four
percent
over
FY
22's
record
total,
which
was
14.1
billion
fiscal
year.
To
date,
Gaming
revenue
was
up
four
percent
or
186.4
million
dollars.
The
comparison
for
the
remaining
eight
months
for
taxable
Gaming
revenue
is
an
increase
of
36.9
percent.
D
D
We
expect
this
key
ratio
to
decrease
due
to
the
sustained
increases
in
credit
issues
which
are
being
beginning
to
average
pre-pandemic
levels
in
FY
24.
We
are
forecasting
a
decrease
of
3.8
percent,
with
a
total
taxable
gaining
win
of
13.6
billion
and
down
one
and
a
half
percent
in
25,
with
13.4
billion
in
taxable
Gaming
revenue.
D
Lastly,
getting
to
actual
percentage
fee
collections
is
my
next
chart
for
FY
23.
We
are
forecasting.
The
board
is
forecasting
928.5
million
in
collections,
they
decrease
of
3.7
percent
or
35.7
million
from
FY
22's
Peak
total
of
964.2
million,
currently
fiscal
year.
To
date,
with
four
months
reported,
total
percentage
fee
collections
are
sitting
at
325.3
million
are
down
one
and
a
half
percent
or
4.9
million
dollars.
The
comparison
for
growth
over
the
remaining
eight
months
is
an
increase
of
25.3
percent.
D
As
you
know,
there's
two
components
that
make
up
percentage
fee
collections.
First,
is
the
percentage
fee
collections
on
taxable
Gaming
revenue
which
fiscal
year
to
date
our
total
320.5
million
and
are
up
3.2
percent
or
9.9
million
dollars.
The
estimated
fee
adjustment
is
the
other
component
and
fiscal
year.
To
date
it
is
sitting
at
4.8
million
dollars
and
is
down
75.5
percent
or
14.8
million
dollars.
D
Fy
22
the
EFA
collections
totaled
33.7
million,
and
represent
a
very
difficult
comparison
for
our
models.
This
fiscal
year.
As
you
know,
the
EFA
is
the
difference
between
the
amount
of
gross
gaming
tax
revenue,
the
amount
of
tax
due
on
the
gross
Gaming
revenue
for
the
current
month,
less
the
amount
of
tax
paid
three
months
prior
due
to
record
levels
of
Gaming
revenue
growth.
The
state
has
recorded
an
FY
22
EFA
collections
have
been
a
positive
contributor
to
the
State's
record
level
of
percentage
fee
collections.
D
fy24.
The
board
is
forecasting
percentage
fee
collections
of
878.8
million,
a
decrease
of
5.4
percent
and
in
25
the
board
is
projecting
percentage
fee
collections
of
878.6
million,
which
is
just
a
slight
decrease
of
0.01
percent.
That
concludes
my
discussion.
I'll
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions
that
you
might
have.
D
C
A
C
The
the
for
the
record
Mike
Lawton
Nevada
Gaming,
Control
Board,
the
the
midweek
business,
is
soft
compared
to
where
we,
where
we
want
to
be
where
we
were
pre-pandemic,
it's
expected
to
continue
to
grow
and
increase
and
I
believe
by
the
end
of
calendar
year
23.
We
could
theoretically
be
back
to
close
to
where
we
were
in
in
that
pre-pandemic
period
of
FY
19..
It's
it's
it's
it's
not
quite
there
yet,
but
we
really.
We
really
have
a
strong
sense
from
discussions
with
licensee
Personnel.
C
That
first
quarter
is
going
to
be
very
good
for
the
strip.
I
I,
don't
know,
there's
so
many
things
that
have
happened
but
I,
don't
know.
If
you
recall
FY
first
quarter,
FY
22
was
was
disappointing.
We
really
expected
to
come
out
of
the
gate
strong
and
then
there
was
severe
weather
on
the
East,
Coast
Omicron
and
CES
fizzled.
It
wasn't
what
we
had.
We
had
anticipated
con
Expo
con
AG,
that's
a
different
convention
because
it
only
comes
every
three
years
so
about
first
quarter
with
with
those
those
events
that
we
we
had
mentioned.
C
Thank
you
and
then
my
other
question
and
I
think
it's
too
early
to
tell
is
obviously
there's
a
lot
of
optimism
for
2024
on
live
entertainment,
tax,
but
I
know
I'm,
always
thinking
that
someone's
going
to
surprise
me
even
more,
like
I,
don't
think
I've
ever
dreamed.
D
Of
seeing
Formula
One
pop
up,
but
do
we
know
there's
not
something
even
more
spectacular
than
that
for
2025
and
it
might
be
someone
else
knows
more
about
it
than
that.
That's
been
shared,
I,
just
kind
of
you
know,
I
know
in
the
past
we've
had
you
know:
performers
retire
like
I.
Remember
thinking,
oh
well,
we're
going
to
really
be
devastated
when
Celine,
who
was
supposed
to
come
back
at
some
point,
but
it
turns
out,
like
the
it's
been
pretty
impressive.
The
other
people
they've
found
they're,
even
maybe
more
generate
more
yeah
tourism.
D
D
I.
Don't
have
that
in
my
model.
So
when
I
come
back
to
you
in
December
I'm
going
to
have
to
address
my
let
model
because
I
didn't
have
that
and
and
to
your
point
and
I
know
we're
getting
a
little
bit
into
let
it's
such
a
hard
tax
to
to
forecast,
because
the
ability
for
us
to
know
what's
coming
online
in
fy25,
it's
not
there.
Yet
we
just
found
out
about
Garth
Brooks
and
that's
what
eight
months
from
now.
D
D
Could
we
talk
about
international
travel
for
for
a
minute?
You
know
I
recall
here.
Several
sessions
where
we
were
four
international
travel
is
an
important
part
of
our
discussion,
where
we,
the
growth
and
tax
of
somewhat
dependent
on
where
we
stood
on
that
now,
it's
of
course
it's
really
dropped
off.
What
what
do
you
see
happening
or
where?
Where
do
we
cut?
Where
are
we
currently
as
it
relates
to
international
travel,
and
is
it
coming
back
or
where.
A
D
Where
I
concentrate
on
it,
Baccarat
I'm
amazed
how
baccarat
has
performed
through
all
of
this
without
you
know
necessarily
the
this.
This
great
relationship,
the
Macau
casinos,
have
and
building
new
customers.
The
new
customers
come
here.
It's
really
not
there.
With
covet
zero
in
China
I've
had
discussions
with
properties
that
are
in
the
bakra
business.
D
They
really
didn't
give
me
any
sense
on
when
they
expect
that
portion
to
necessarily
come
come
back
like
it
once
did,
but
the
baccarat
business
has
not
necessarily
been
a
drag
on
on
Gaming
revenue,
as
you
can
see
it's
off
from
from
its
peak.
But
you
know
our
understanding
is
that
there's
customers
that
have
multiple
residencies
in
in
the
states
they
they
may,
they
might
not
have
come
home.
There's
been
domestic
play.
D
That's
been
very
strong
on
the
baccarat
side,
so
it's
it's
been
held
together
nicely
I,
I,
I'm,
honestly
I've
spoke
to
you
before
I'm
glad
we're
not
relying
on
baccarat.
When
we
rely
on
bakra
like
we
did
in
FY
14,
it's
it's.
The
swings
are
so
large
with
withhold
and
then
we
start
giving
up
taxable
Gaming
revenue
because
of
the
the
discounts
and
the
deals
that
are
made
with
these
customers.
So
I
I
like
where
baccarat
is
right
now,
I,
don't
know
if
you
know
Vincent
does
but
I'm
I'm
comfortable
where
it
is.
D
It
doesn't
keep
me
up
so
much
as
night
at
night.
Now,
of
course,
there's
other
things
that
we
worry
about,
but
yeah
baccarat
business
has
been
a
pleasant
surprise,
I,
don't
think
moving
forward
in
my
forecast
models,
I'm
relying
on
it
to
save
the
day.
Obviously,
I'm
forecasting,
some
softness
and
I
don't
have
the
baccarat
business
coming
back
and
saving
it,
because
no
one's
telling
me
that
that
that's
going
to
happen.
D
Well,
thanks
for
the
presentation,
Michael
I
think
it's
it's
been
terrific
and
I
appreciate
your
balanced.
You
know
approach
and
Outlook
to
this
I
know
you
have
an
immense
amount
of
experience.
You
know
in
your
role
with
the
Nevada
Gaming
Control
Board,
since
it's
such
an
important
component
of
our
budget
and
forecast.
Could
you
kind
of
draw
on
your
experience
and
think
about
a
downside
scenario
and
where
things
could
go
downside
scenario,
I
think
I
think
the
board's
forecast
is
optimistic.
D
With
a
pretty
good
splash
of
pessimism,
I
I
guess
we
could
go,
we
could
we
could
I
have
a
drop
of
about
five
percent
in
24
25
for
the
state
I
guess
they
could
go
down
to
10.
again
my
models
rely
so
much
on
relationships.
Human
intelligence,
with
with
not
only
the
the
individuals
on
the
Strip,
but
in
all
the
markets
and
I,
don't
get
a
sense
that
anyone's
telling
me
the
bottom
is
going
to
fall
out,
which
that
makes
me
feel
good.
D
I
think
I
had
some
assumptions
going
into
a
lot
of
our
meetings
where
I
thought
what
they
thought
they
might
tell
me
and
I
was
I.
Was
I
was
pleasantly
surprised
and
relieved
that
their
weighing
everything
that
we're
weighing
to
you
have
this
incredible
events
schedule
you
have
strong
employment,
but
then
there
are
these
headwinds
right
and
I
think
there's
a
balancing
act
and
maybe
I
I
balanced
it
more
to
the
pessimistic
side.
D
I
think,
there's
upside
to
my
forecast,
as
Moody's
pointed
out.
If
this
Narrow
Path
we
have
this
soft
Landing
I
just
wasn't
willing
to
necessarily
forecast
a
sloth,
a
soft
Landing,
because
I
think
most
of
my
research
in
Intel
Gathering
led
us
down
the
path
of
expect
some
softness.
The
Nevada
division
of
Tourism
recently
provided
us
with
some
surveys
from
a
market
research
firm.
D
You
know,
expectations
on
United,
States
economic
recession,
65.5
percent
of
the
respondents
agree
or
strongly
agree.
Reduced
expenditures
on
travel
due
to
recession,
concerns
78.9
percent,
agree
or
strongly
disagree
or
Street,
agree
or
strongly
agree.
Personal
financial
concerns
regarding
upcoming
research,
recession,
67.6,
agree
or
strongly
agree.
D
So
I
think
that
kind
of
pushed
me
into
being
more
pessimistic
than
maybe
optimistic
and
I
guess
there
could
be
some
more
downside
risk
for
me,
but
I
think
the
way
I
balanced
at
things
there
could
be
there
could
be
some
upside
and
and
I
could
be
wrong
on
on
being
too
pessimistic,
I
hope
that
answers
your
question.
It
was
a
lot.
D
Sorry
for
the
record,
Michael
Croom
just
wondering
if
your
model
takes
into
account
any
other
domestic
markets
opening
up
and
that
could
be
a
potential
drag
on
less
tourism
because
we're
seeing
other
gaming
markets
open
up
and
if
so,
how
does
that
factor
into
your
model?
Yeah
I
I
really
remember
Cohn
for
the
record.
Mike
Lawton,
Nevada
game
control,
board,
I,
really
didn't
I
guess
there
could
have
been
some
some
concerns
regarding
legalized
sports
betting
in
in
California
that
could
have
dragged
some
business.
I
mean
the
the
damage
to.
G
Happened
in
the
northern
part
of
the
state,
with
with
Native
Native
gam,
Native
American
gambling
in
Northern
California.
That's
already
done.
D
And
Washoe
County
has
become
such
a
great
hybrid
of
some
Regional
tourism,
along
with
this,
this
booming
local
economy.
So
yeah
I
didn't
take
any
of
that
into
consideration
in
terms
of
another
Market
hurting
our
business
here
in
Nevada,
our
special
events,
as
you
know,
no
one,
no
one
even
close
right
I
mean
it's.
It's
just
I'll
have
months
where
I'll
report
and
I'll
read
I,
keep
track
on
a
calendar
and
I'll
say
how
did
they
do
this
all
in
one
weekend?
It's
just
it's
just
incredible.
So.
D
For
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal,
so
just
one
quick
question:
you
laid
out
some
of
the
events
in
23
and
in
24
that
are
all
very
significant
in
your
model.
Are
those
relatively
equal
so
that
the
decline
in
24
is
really
based
more
on
consumer
Behavior.
A
Excluding
these,
these
wonderful
events
or
is
one
heavier
weighted
than
the
other
I,
don't
know
how
convention
business
and
and
certain
concerts
compared
to
you
know,
Super
Bowl
and
in
a
car
race,
but
I
I
think
in
the
models.
This
is
from
discussions
with
the
guys
on
the
ground
that
first
quarter
everyone's
really
really
excited
about
with
those
two
conventions
and
then.
H
The
the
sweet,
16
Elite,
eight
tournaments,
those
those
are
going
to
be
very
big,
I
I,
think
you
know
expectations
with
events.
I
know
we
had
the
NFL
draft
and
everyone
was
thinking.
This
is
going
to
be
the
greatest
thing
ever
it
really
wasn't.
It
was
great
for
some
some
tourism
metrics
with
rooms
and
food
and
beverage,
but
it
really
didn't
spill
into
gaming.
I,
don't
think
that'll
happen
with
the
Super
Bowl.
H
You
know,
I
really
didn't
get
in
a
lot
of
discussions
with
the
impact
the
Super
Bowl
is
going
to
have
on
Gaming
revenue.
I
can
tell
you,
everyone
is
very
excited
for
the
F1
race
in
November.
They
they
are
probably
more
excited
about
that
than
anything
that
we
we
talked
about
in
terms
of
the
events,
so
I
think
if
you
look
at
the
quarter,
that
first
quarter
of
23,
they're,
very
confident,
I,
think
the
fourth
quarter
of
23
they're,
very
confident,
I,
think
that
in
the
middle
you
know,
there's
some
hey.
H
Maybe
there's
going
to
be
some
kind
of
events
that
aren't
going
to
be
able
to
match
and
keep
up
at
the
pace
that
we're
on
so
I
would
say.
If
the
events
are
weighted,
it
would
be
F1
and
then
that
first
quarter,
convention,
calendar
and
I
don't
know.
If
it's
so
much
the
convention
calendar
you
got
to
realize
that
first
quarter
of
2022
was
soft
for
the
strip.
They
did
not
have
their
best
their
best
months
possible,
so
they're
really
expecting,
because
those
comps
are
easier.
They
could
hit
it
out
of
the
park.
A
A
A
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
and
welcome
economic
Forum
members.
My
name
is
Jason
gortari
executive
branch
Economist
for
the
Governor's
finance
office
at
the
direction
of
the
chair.
I'll
first
provide
a
general
outlook
on
the
economy
and
the
assumptions
that
were
made
when
I
developed
my
revenue
forecast.
A
A
H
My
gaming
percentage
fee
forecast
relies
heavily
on
expected
gaming
volume
and
gaming
when
I
separated
out
slots
back,
rot
and
everything
else
for
Statewide
gaming
volume.
When
discussing
the
broader
economy,
consumer
confidence
remains
relatively
low
right
now,
and
interest
rates
remain
relatively
High,
however,
jobs
continue
to
be
added
and
the
unemployment
rate
remains
low.
As
of
October
of
2022,
the
U.S
unemployment
rate
is
at
3.7
percent,
up
from
September's
29
month
low
of
three
and
a
half
percent.
H
My
forecast
assumes
that
international
business
and
Convention
travel
will
continue
to
improve
over
the
forecast
period.
In
my
forecast,
the
gaming
wind
is
a
mathematical
function
of
historical
race.
Relationships
between
wind
and
volume,
and
the
expectation
for
the
forecast
period
is
that
that
historical
relationship
will
hold.
H
Next,
turning
to
slide
five
slide,
5
shows
key
metrics
on
how
the
gaming
percentage
fee
collections
are
derived.
In
my
forecast,
the
when
to
drop
ratio
is
higher
than
normal
and
fiscal
year
23
for
fiscal
year
23.
This
ratio
is
forced
casted
at
eight
and
a
half
percent.
Then
the
wind
to
drop
ratios
for
fiscal
year,
24
and
25
reduced
slightly
and
are
in
line
with
recent
historical
data.
The
gross
Revenue
to
win
ratio
for
fiscal
year
23
is
lower
than
it's
typically
been
at
92.2
percent,
but
for
fiscal
year
24
and
25.
H
Next,
please
turn
to
slide
six,
which
contains
my
gaming
percentage
fee
collection
forecasts
collections
are
estimated
to
Total
934.9
million
in
fiscal
year,
23
907.6
million
in
fiscal
year,
24.
and
935.8
million
in
fiscal
year,
25
moderately
decreasing
in
the
first
two
fiscal
years
and
then
increasing
slightly
in
the
last,
and
with
that.
That
concludes
my
gaming
percentage
fee
collections
forecast.
H
H
Thank
you
you're
welcome,
sorry,
one
more
question
on
that,
then.
So
because
that's
what
you've
experienced
to
date
or
that's,
what
you're
expecting
I
mean
it's
still.
We
have
still
ways
to
go
right
to
get
to
the
end
of
June
of
23..
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record,
Jason
gortari.
Yes,
that's
what
we've
noticed
year
to
date
that
number's
down
a
little
bit
and
I
continue
I
expect
that
to
continue
with
the
international
travel
being
down
about
18
so
far.
I
Percentage
fee
tax
forecast
from
the
Governor
or
the
fiscal
analysis
division.
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record.
Russell
Gannon,
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
Division
and
I
may
be
having
some
technical
difficulties
here,
but
I'll
see
if
I'm,
not
okay,
it
looks
like
it
might
display
on
hey
there.
It
goes,
but
this
is
in
the
fiscal
analysis,
divisions
packet,
which
is
a
big
packet
outside
the
economic
Forest
meeting
packet
and
I
just
wanted
to
quickly
go
through
some
slides
to
address
the
chairs
requests
for
what
the
Outlook
is.
I
That's
lying
behind
the
various
Revenue
forecasts
that
were
prepared
by
staff
from
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
that
will
be
presented
to
you.
So
the
starting
point
for
us
is
that
we
look
at
the
Moody's
forecast
to
consensus
as
well
as
some
of
the
other
scenarios,
but
then
we
sit
down
and
do
our
own
forecast,
and
so
what
I
have
here
for
you
is
just
on
and
it
begins
on
page
two
of
the
fiscals
packet.
This
is
the
total
employment,
and
so
we
actually
model
this
by
looking
at
the
different
major
sectors.
I
So
you
can
see
that
we're
slightly
higher
in
so
Moody's
has
a
little
bit
of
a
slower
growth,
but
then,
by
the
end
of
the
fiscal
or
the
forecast,
Horizon
we're
pretty
much
comparable,
total
employment
forecasts.
I
Then,
with
regards
to
the
average
wage
per
employee,
we
have
it.
Sorry,
let
me
get
cheat
here,
increasing
approximately
two
and
a
half
to
then
three
percent
a
year
over
the
forecast
Horizon,
and
what
we
need
to
keep
in
mind
is
that,
based
on
Moody's
Baseline
forecast
that
they
have
the
see
inflation
as
measured
by
the
Consumer
Price
Index,
increasing
by
6.3
percent
on
a
fiscal
year
2023
and
then
about
2.6
percent
and
FY
2,
2024
and
2.2
percent,
which
is
what
I
think
we
expect
that
the
feds
will.
I
The
Federal
Reserve
can
successfully
engineer
this
soft
landing
and
they'll
be
raising
rates
and
then
start
to
lower
them
again
next
year,
and
then
inflation
will
come
back
down
and
the
two
to
three
percent
range.
So
thus
we
have
our
average
wage
for
our
employee
growing,
not
quite
as
fast
as
Moody's
and
so
again,
two
and
a
half
percent
and
halfway
to
2023.
I
So
in
real
purchasing
power,
the
average
wage
per
employee
gets
sort
of
degraded
and
then
the
average
weight
per
employee
goes
around
three
percent
in
FY
2024
and
FY
25..
I
So
then,
if
we
look
at
total
wages,
not
surprisingly
Moody's
is
a
little
bit
stronger
than
what
fiscal
is
thinking,
because
we
have,
you
know
comparable
employment
growth,
but
not
as
much
weight
growth
and
wage
per
employee.
I
But
so
that's
the
look
at
the
wages
that
are
were
for
our
forecast,
Horizon
and
then
looking
at
the
non-wage
component,
because
we
try
and
get
to
a
total
personal
income
and
use
that
as
one
of
the
variables
in
our
sales
tax
forecast,
as
well
as
some
of
the
other
variables
or
excuse
me,
Revenue
sources,
and
so
the
non-wage
component.
The
the
biggest
component
of
this
is
dividends,
interest
and
rent,
and
so
you
can
see
we're
stronger
than
the
Moody's
Outlook
and
their
Baseline
for
Nevada,
because
right,
the
feds
are
raising
interest
rates.
I
So
in
the
near
term,
here
the
interest
earnings,
especially
off
the
retirees
and
the
retirees
that
are
coming
to
the
state
so
so
and
then
also
the
other
component
of
non-wage
is
transfer
payments
and
one
of
the
bigger
one
of
the
components
is,
thankfully,
the
UI
and
the
other
components
of
transfer
payments.
I
The
sort
of
distortion
is
now
out
of
them
from
the
federal
stimulus
payments,
so
you
can
get
back
to
looking
at
more
the
traditional
it's
the
you
have
Medicaid
and
Medicare
in
there
and
with
the
state
doing
the
Medicaid
expansion
we've
seen
that
grow
stronger
here
and
and
then
also
you
have
social
security
benefits
and,
as
you're
probably
aware
right
that
the
the
federal
the
IRS
did
off
their
calculations
and
the
FEDS
that
it's
8.7
percent
increase
in
Social
Security
benefits,
effective,
January,
that's,
and
so
we
that
we
built
that
in
when
we
were
looking
at
the
Social
Security
as
part
of
our
transfer
payments
and
in
thinking
most
likely,
inflation
will
subside.
I
But
probably
the
Social
Security
increase
is
over.
For
the
next
two
cycles
will
be
larger
than
what
we've
seen
due
to
inflation.
Staying
up
a
little
bit
to
where
it
was
pre
the
inflationary
session
that
we're
seeing
here
so
thus,
you
can
see
for
us
that
our
wages
and
non-wage
were
one
of
the
states
that,
where
non-wage
stays
above
wage
income,
you
can
see
it's
been
above.
It
part
of
that
was
the
expansion
of
Medicaid
as
well
as
again
dividends,
interest
and
rent.
I
And
then
you
can
see
the
stimulus
effect,
but
we
have
it
continuing
to
stay
above
over
the
forecast
Rising.
It
seems
bothersome
at
first,
but
not
necessarily
when
you
again
some
of
the
factors
I
said
about
what's
driving
in
dividends,
interest
in
rent
when
with
the
state's
retirees
and
people
moving
here
and
then
you
can
see,
here's
on
chart
6A
and
that
this
is
the
total
personal
income
forecast
between
Moody's
and
the
fiscal
division.
So
it's
right.
I
We
end
up
canceling
out
between
wages
and
non-wages
to
basically
end
up
with
the
same
personal
income
and
I.
Guess
that's
another
way
of
demonstrating
to
the
body
that
you
know
there's
more
than
one
way
to
forecast
something
by
different
people
and
maybe
end
up
standing
incomparable
places
once
everybody's
done.
Turning
the
dials,
and
so
then
here's
our
construction,
employment.
We
just
think
construction
like
there's
this
inflection
point
that
it'll
start
increasing
at
a
decreasing
rate,
but
we
are
lower
than
moodies.
I
With
regards
to
construction
plan,
we
realize
interest
rates
will
put
a
curb
on
some
projects,
but
the
projects
that
are
going
on
in
finance
will
continue
to
go
on
and
so
and
they're
those
that
are
in
the
slot.
So
could
it
be
a
little
weaker?
That's
one
of
the
things
we're
going
to
have
to
examine
when
we
go
back
and
think
about
this
to
bring
back
for
the
December
meeting.
I
So
chart
11a,
which
is
on
page
22
of
the
packet
I,
just
wanted
to
show
you.
This
is
our
visitor
forecast
and
clearly
this
has
become
it's
always
difficult
as
a
thing
to
forecast
and
it's
a
little
more
difficult.
I
Just
because
look
at
the
chart
right
where
we
were
then
the
pandemics
Distortion,
and
but
we
have
it
continuing
to
come
back
and
so
I
think
the
as
a
Prelude
to
the
getting
into
the
gaming
Mr
Lawton
did
a
very
good
job
of
all
the
things
that
are
out
there,
that
when
a
forecaster
needs
to
be
thinking
about
not
just
for
gaming
percentages
but
for
pretty
much,
every
Revenue
Source
right,
which
is
the
gaming
industry,
is
demonstrated.
I
think
that
they're
they're
very
Adept
at
using
their
facilities
to
get
people
in
there.
I
So
it's
not
just
a
Dell.
It's
not
just
Garth
Brooks
that
there
are
artists
that
want
to
come
to
Vegas
and
perform,
and
the
the
industry
will
line
up,
whether
it's
at
casinos
entertainment
facility
or
at
Allegiant
Stadium
right
with
Taylor
Swift,
now
coming
they'll
figure
out
how
to
get
artists
to
come.
I
It's
hard
for
us
as
forecasters
to
know
when
and
where
then
also
you
as
was
stated,
you
have
the
street
16
in
the
final
eight
games
for
March
Madness
March
Madness,
so
you
can
see
that
in
the
numbers,
when
you
look
at
March
without
having
sweet,
16
and
final
eight
games,
I
think
that's
going
to
be
a
pretty
good
event
for
the
state.
Then
you
have
F1
and
Fontaine
Blue
opening
again
I
think
we
we
can
look
at
those
and
go
wow.
That's
a
that's
a
day
or
it's
a
weekend.
I
I
Similarly,
with
the
Super
Bowl,
we
want
to
there's
a
tendency
to
sometimes
think
about
it
being
well,
it's
a
weekend.
It's
a
game.
No,
when
you
go
look
at
the
Super
Bowl
in
other
places,
it
begins
approximately
two
weeks
before
the
event
with
the
people
coming
in
all
the
the
sports
people
and
and
the
teams
can
come
in
and
they're
people.
Well,
that
won't
be
maybe
the
same
mat
order
magnitude
as
the
people
coming
for
the
game,
but
those
you're
bringing
Echo
economic
activity
to
the
state
for
those
types
of
events.
I
I
Fy24
clearly
has
two
major
events
in
it,
as
well
as
they'll
continue
to
probably
figure
out
how
to
bring
artists
in
residencies
and
and
then
there
was
a
statement
in
the
paper
by
Mr
Hill,
with
the
lvcva
about
hey
and
I.
I
Don't
think
the
F1
builds
a
half
a
billion
dollar
facility
without
possibly
the
expectation
that
maybe
F1
is
an
annual
then,
but
as
a
forecaster,
it's
hard
to
put
that
online
at
fy25
again
without
it
being
more
definitive
when
we're
sitting
here
trying
to
forecast
revenues
that
the
state
will
use
to
build
budgets.
So
that's
that's
sort
of
a
the
Outlook
or
the
economic
information
that
we're
looking
at
so
then
turning
the
gaming,
which
is
begins
on
page
28
of
the
fiscals
packet.
I
Clearly,
the
fiscal
analysis
division
is
higher
and
appears
to
be
the
more
optimistic
entity
with
regards
to
so
I
will
just
preface
when
you
look
at
the
gaming
charts
that
we
do
they've
been
perplexing
me
for
some
time
when
you
go
look
at
the
coin
in
or
unit
and
the
dropper
unit
that
so
when
I
started
this
forecast
exercise,
it
was
my
expectation
that
I
would
be
walking
things
back,
that
there
had
to
be
some
softening
in
that
per
unit
and
even
possibly
the
whole
percentages
on
the
slot
side.
I
But
then,
as
I
start
to
look
at
the
numbers
and
what
I
just
talked
about
the
the
events,
the
big
events,
the
other
events
that
they'll
have
to
bring
people
I,
don't
know
if
it's
cold
feet
or
not.
But
it's
just
like
what
is
there
to
really
have
me:
walk
back
because
they're,
not
gonna,
We're,
not
gonna,
bring
back
the
devices
that
we
had
so
that
in
terms
of
if
the
pre-pandemic,
in
my
view,
so
that's
the
denominator.
I
Believe
the
manufacturers
not
they're
good
at
creating
products
that
people
wanting
to
play
and
the
industry
is
good
at
getting
them
out
there
and
then
it's
there
they'll
create
machines
that
most
likely
will
have
a
slightly
a
higher
hold
or
they'll
be
able
to
maintain
the
hole
because
these
electronic
gaming
Dives
are
much
different
type
of
gaming
product
than
the
old
slot
machines,
and
so
they
can
create
devices
that
people
want
to
play
and
and
possibly
continue
to
have
the
hold
go
up
a
little
bit
because
that's
the
the
end,
the
manufacturer
probably
needs
that,
but
also
the
industry
needs
that,
because
that's
without
that,
then
your
wind
gets
degraded
and
inflation
adjusted
basis.
I
So
that's
what,
when
I
got
to
okay
I
I,
didn't
back
things
off,
that's
where
I
thought
I
would
be,
and
I
didn't
so
on
table
1B
and
I
apologize
yesterday,
looking
through
the
stuff
and
the
taxable
Gaming
revenue
in
the
first
four
months,
you'll
see
that
it's
equal
to
Total
win
and
thus
the
ratio
tgr
to
wins
100.
We
wish.
But
it's
you
know,
but
I
I,
just
I
fixed
the
air.
It
won't
be
there
in
December,
but
it
is
now
Mr.
I
So
when
I
look
at
my
forecast
and
I
look
at
Clark,
County
Washoe
and
Restless
State
I
modeled
those
three
areas,
but
then
I
don't
bring
all
that
to
you
because
there's
enough
information
when
I
look
at
this
forecast
and
get
done
and
you
have
a
chance
to
put
it
away
and
then
come
back
after
sleeping
on
it
I'm
sort
of
concerned,
as
the
slot
went
a
little
too
strong
here
in
fy23
when
they
look
at
what
I
have
to
grow
down
there
at
the
bottom
to
in
the
last
eight
months
to
hit
the
forecast,
but
am
I,
maybe
am
I
a
little
too
weak
on
games.
I
But
then
I
go
look
at
the
3.1
percent,
that's
needed,
which
is
slightly
less
than
the
3.8
that
we're
up
through
the
first
four
months,
I
didn't
like
I
guess
my
nervousness
went
away.
That
is
this
too
optimistic.
I
So
then
you
can
see
what
has
to
happen
for
the
other
components
and
then
so.
For
me,
when
I
go,
look
at
you
can
see,
I
have
a
slightly
higher
ratio
tgr
to
win
for
fy23,
but
looking
at
where
it
is
through
the
first
four
months,
and
the
nice
thing
is
is
when
Mr
Lawton
releases
the
numbers
in
a
week
or
so
or
a
couple
weeks.
I
I
In
my
view
with
that,
so
that's
what's
helped
keep
the
tgr
to
win
up
with
slots
being
a
higher
percentage
of
the
market.
Then
the
what
you
can
see
also
is
that
I
have
the
effective
tax
rate
in
fy23
coming
up
from
the
6.59.
I
You
can
see
it's
at
6.34
now
here
today,
but
I'll
tell
you
as
a
forecaster
one
of
the
things
that's
perplexing
me
and
I've
I'm
struggling
with
in
terms
of
understanding
and
then
making
the
forecast
assumption
is
so
look
at
FY
2022,
the
average
tax
rate,
and
this
is
the
average
tax
tgr
collections
from
tgr
removing
the
EFA
from
the
distortion.
I
So
the
6.59
versus
6.63
in
FY
2019
right
I'm
going
to
get
rid
of
the
2020
20
and
2021
due
to
the
pandemic
distortions,
but
the
taxable
Gaming
revenue
went
from
11.4
billion
in
FY
2019
to
14.1,
that's
2.7
billion
dollars
and
remember.
The
tax
rates
are
three
and
a
half
percent
on
anything
up
to
50,
50,
000,
four
and
a
half
percent
on
the
next
84
000
and
6.75
on
anything
over
134.
I
Tax
bracket,
I
believe
I'm
comfortable
with
the
average
effective
tax
rate
having
to
come
back
up
and
one
could
conjecture.
If
you
do
some
of
the
math,
could
it
be
low?
But
I
didn't
want
to
get
too
optimistic
on
that,
given
that
I
I've
gone
and
look
at
it,
monthly
I've
looked
at
it
quarterly
to
try
and
figure
out
what
went
on
in
22
compared
to
2019
and
I.
Just
can't
figure
out
other
than
the
numbers
are
what
the
numbers
are.
I
So
with
that
Madam
chair
members
of
The,
Forum
I,
think
that's
more
of
the
comments
that
I
wanted
to
make,
because
Mr
Lawton
again
laid
out
everything
and
I.
Just
look
at
this
and
go
I.
Think
24
should
be
pretty
good
and
you
can
say
so
then,
to
get
to
sort
of
Mr
zahn's
Question
the
negative
side
yeah,
if
there's
a
recession.
I
Clearly
that
will
walk
us
back
a
little
bit,
because
some
of
those
visitors
won't
come,
but
I
believe
for
some
of
the
things
that
especially
the
F1
in
the
Super
Bowl
that
stuff's
going
to
be
relatively
inelastic
to
a
recession.
Why
look
at
what
the
ticket
prices
are
look
at
what
the
room
rates
are
if
you're
going
to
come,
spend
that
money
yeah
the
recession,
probably
won't
hurt
you
too
badly
compared
to
some
of
the
other.
J
A
J
K
K
I
I
I
would
just
count
that
mister
I
love
it
that
is
forecasters
Moody's
has
the
ability
in
the
facilities
to
do
what
they
do.
Let's
do
bass
lines
and
then
do
alternate
for
some
of
us
other
forecasters
it's
harder
to
make
the
call
on
a
recession
in
terms
of
when
it's
going
to
occur,
how
deep
it
is
and
what
the
recovery
is.
Unless
it's
right,
unless
you're
looking.
I
C
Linda
Rosenthal
for
the
record,
if
I
could
just
go
back,
Mr
Lawton
and
ask
you
a
quick
question
on
the
statistics
you
quoted,
or
the
survey
results
from
that
tourism
survey.
Can
you
what's
the
context
of
that
survey?
Is
it
just
visitors
to
Las
Vegas?
Is
it
because
the
percentages
obviously
were
interesting.
I
But
is
it
a
broad-based
type
of
visitor
or
is
it
you
know
we're
talking
about
potentially
higher
wealth
people
coming
in
for
some
of
these
events
and
so
I'm
trying
to
correlate
the
results
of
the
survey
to
who
we
might
actually
see
visiting
the
state
during
that
time
period
for
the
record,
Mike
Lawton
senior
economic
analyst
with
the
Nevada
Gaming
Control
Board,
my
understanding
this
was
a
broad-based
survey.
This
was
in
a
survey
specific
to
Las,
Vegas
or
just
a
broad-based.
You
know
Market
survey.
I
Thank
you
that
they
used
for
their
some
of
their
modeling,
so
those
results
may
not
be
as
directly
correlated
than
with
the
expectation
for
what
type
of
visitor
comes
in
these
next
few
years.
With
these
big
events
and
what
impact
that
might
have
on
the
economy
and
the
tax,
correct
and
I
think
when
I
saw
these
it
just
kind
of
and
I
saw
these
after
my
models
were
done,
but
it
kind
of
made
me
look,
and
you
know
you
always
have
forecast
anxiety,
forecast
doubt
and
I
was
like
well,
okay.
I
That
kind
of
you
know
I'm,
not
neces
I'm,
not
necessarily
forecasting
a
recession.
I
didn't
say:
recession,
one
time
in
my
forecast,
I'm
saying
a
pullback
in
Leisure
spending.
You
know
how
they
Define
a
recession.
Is
that's
a
Way
Beyond.
What
what
I
do?
I
just
I
have
data
I,
have
research
and
that's
what
my
research
tells
me
is
that
you
know
we
have
Resorts
that
are
modeling
for
flat
to
low
single-digit
growth
or
flat
to
low
single
digit
declines.
So
if
that's,
what
they're
modeling.
I
That's
what
I'm
going
to
model
off
a
very
high
base,
yeah
I
mean
we're
we're
still
at
Great
numbers
I'm,
not
I'm.
That's
why
I
said
it's
an
optimistic,
pessimistic
forecast.
These
numbers
are
nothing
to
be
like.
Oh,
this
is
terrible,
we're
doing
13
billion
in
win.
We're
I,
don't
have
one
month
in
my
model
that
doesn't
do
a
billion
dollars
in
gaming
win
and
it
scares
me
but
I
I.
It's
really
difficult
to
bring
it
down
much
further.
F
F
Yeah
just
one
question:
I
guess
for
all
of
you:
we
talked
about
three
big
events:
F1
Super,
Bowl,
March,
Madness,
those
events,
F1
I
completely
get
that's
a
new
event
to
the
city.
Super
Bowl,
however,
and
March
Madness
have
always
been
strong
events.
Just
in
general
right,
we
always
see
a
strong
consumer
coming
in
so.
C
B
I
Assuming
you're
you're
thinking
about
more
discretionary
income
coming
in
higher
net
worth
individuals,
but
those
are
events
that
have
already
been
strong.
So
how
are
you
thinking
about
those
as
you're
forecasting
them
being
here
on
the
ground?
Well,
for
the
record:
Mike
Lawton,
Nevada,
Gaming,
Control
Board
March
is
always
a
Monster
Month
in
Vegas
because
of
March
Madness,
but
we've
never
had
tournament
games
held
in
Las
Vegas.
This
is
a
first,
so
I
think
that's
where
you're
like
okay
yeah
I
get
it.
I
Bowl
I
mean
I
I've
I've,
heard
studies
before
where
the
economic
impact
in
Las
Vegas
without
the
Super
Bowl
has
already
been
bigger
than
the
cities
with
the
Super
Bowl
and
now
we're
adding
having
the
Super
Bowl
so
I
I
just
think
it
adds
a
whole
nother
level
of
of
economic
activity
and
growth.
For,
like
Russ,
said
it's
not
just
Sunday.
It's
it's
a
period.
Building
up
to
that
big
event.
I
Chasing
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
Economist,
Governor's
finance
office
I
agree
much
with
what
Mr
Lawton
said
in
addition
to
the
Super
Bowl
comment
that
he
made
I
believe
more
people
visit,
Las
Vegas
for
the
Super
Bowl
than
where
the
Super
Bowl
is
actually
being
hosted
so
for
this
go
around
I
think
we'll
have
the
additional
65
000
attendees
on
top
of
the
people
that
are
excited
just
to
be
in
the
Las
Vegas
environment,
to
watch
the
Super
Bowl
on
its
surrounding
casinos
or
bars
or
in
the
tailgate
environment.
I
G
I
Super
Bowl,
just
when
you
go
look
at
what
the
the
estimated
impact
for
some
of
those
and
no
fans
to
those
locations,
they're
not
Vegas,
right,
I,
think
you're
going
to
have
people
drive
in
from
Southern
California,
whether
the
Southern
California
team
makes
it
or
not,
because
it's
a
Super
Bowl
in
Vegas
navian,
over
exaggerating
but
I.
Just
think
and
I
think
the
F1
from
everything
we're
reading
I
just
think.
I
That's
going
to
be
a
phenomenal
event
and
when
I
went
online
and
looked
at
where
the
the
course
actually
is,
how
many
of
those
hotel
rooms
that
the
casinos
have
they're
the
stadium
that
you
can
be
in
your
room,
watch
almost
the
whole
race
I
just
think
it's
going
to
be
a
phenomenal
event
and
probably
will
continue
and
then
Mr
Krum.
You
had
the
question
to
the
other
member
step
up.
You
know
hey
with
gaming,
expanding
in
other
markets,
if
it's
Casino
style
gaming,
I
think.
A
The
state
has
long
proven
since
the
mid
90s
that
that's
not
really
a
detriment
to
us.
Why?
Because
I
I
believe
then
I
still
believe
now
that
the
expansion
of
gaming,
probably
is
it
causes
some
people
to
not
make
as
many
trips,
but
it
now
causes
people
to
make
trips
I
call
them
late
in
Gamers,
they
didn't
know
they
were
Gamers
till
you
brought
gaming
close
to
them
and
they
became
a
gamer
and
they
want
to
come
to
the
Mecca.
So
they
do
so
I.
Just
that's.
H
I
Have
a
little
bit
of
a
negative
fact,
but
I
also
believe
it
could
have
similar
to
positive
effect.
Why?
Because
people
who
maybe
weren't
Sports
Wagers
become
Sports
waiters
is
now
they
want
to
come
to
the
sports
books
in
the
casinos
for
a
weekend
to
watch
whatever
sport
it
is
and
make
Wagers.
Maybe
that's
overly
optimistic,
but
I
just
think
that
would
be
my
view
that
the
yeah,
the
sport
waging
that
has
some
negative
potential
as
the
other
states
expand
into
it.
But
it
could
also
have
some
positive
effects
at
the
margin
where's
the
net.
I
Don't
ask
me
to
tell
you,
but
it's
not
negative
or
not
positive,
but
I
just
don't
want
to
concentrate
on
the
net.
The
potential
negative
effect
I
think
because
there
is
some
positive,
and
so
hopefully
that
answers
your
question
a
little
bit:
Mr
Chrome
yeah,
Michael,
Chrome
yeah.
That
answers
my
question.
Thank
you.
I
I
just
want
to
state,
but
for
those
big
events
going
back
to
March
Madness
and
Super
Bowl,
we
traditionally
see
high
occupancy
already
and
so
going
back
to
my
question:
is
it
really
that
you're,
just
assuming
a
a
consumer
with
a
higher
amount
of
discretionary
income
that
will
just
spend
more
you're
right?
More
people
may
come
over,
but
at
some
point
the
city
reaches
capacity
because
of
the
occupancy
rate.
So
I
just
really
want
to
understand
that
piece
and
I
just
don't
want
to
over
forecast
what
those
events
will
do.
I
I
Rarely
as
an
economist,
do
you
get
to
see
economic
markets
operate
as
quickly
but
hear
what
you
go.
So
you
ask
yourself
look
at
what
some
of
the
room
rates
that
are
being
reported
for
the
F1
and
probably
going
to
be
for
the
stadium
that
the
casino
hotels,
as
well
as
some
of
the
other
facilities
that
aren't
casino
hotels
but
have
rooms
that,
but
they
will
still
have
a
very
good
occupancy
rate
of
those.
L
Some
rooms
that
are
down
there,
but
that's
to
me
when
you
just
as
an
economist
to
be
sitting
here
and
watching
live
markets
almost
work
in
terms
of
when
you
have
those
types
of
big
events
and
then
see
where
room
rates
move
and
where
some
of
the
other
stuff
does.
Why?
Because
they
have
to
clear
the
market
with
high
raising
prices
in
relation
to
the
demand
and
and
I
think
also
one
of
the
things
that
economists
we
have
is
there's
say's
law,
which
Supply
creates
its
own
demand.
L
I.
Think
the
gaming
industry
is
one
of
those
where
clearly
they're
they're
good
at
say's
law
in
terms
of
creating
a
product
versus
the
good
and
the
service
and
and
people
didn't
realize.
Maybe
they
demanded
that,
but
they
end
up
demanding
it,
and
so
that's
just
some
of
the
views
that
I've
carried
but
I
again.
I,
don't
want
to
overstate
that.
Yes,
there
are
negative
clouds
sitting
out
there
and
so
I
don't
know.
L
L
Okay,
so
I
think
with
that
we
are
going
to
actually
take
about
a
20
minute
recess
to
let
everybody
take
a
little
break
and
so
I
know
they're
sure
the
exact
time.
But
it
looks
like
it's
a
little
bit
before
noon.
Let's
actually
plan
to
to
reconvene
around
12
20.
H
Okay
for
the
record
Linda
Rosenthal,
we
are
coming
out
of
of
recess
and
our
back
in
the
live
meeting.
H
Continuing
with
agenda
item
number
six
we're
on
Item
B
the
live
entertainment
tax,
so
we
are
going
to
have
each
presenter
give
their
forecast
both
for
gaming
and
non-gaming,
if
applicable,
before
moving
to
the
next
forecaster.
H
So
we'll
start
with
Mr
Lawton
from
the
gaming
tool
board
gaming.
Only
yes,
all
right
again
for
the
record
Mike
Lawton
with
the
Nevada
Gaming
Control
Board
I'm,
not
going
to
give
a
economic
outlook
on
this
particular
tax.
I'll
have
my
theory
or
hypothesis
in
the
body.
If
that's
okay,
the
casino
live
entertainment
tax
is
based
on
a
forecast
of
taxable
Casino
entertainment
activity.
This
forecast
for
taxable
activity
is
based
on
an
examination
of
historical
growth
patterns
and,
most
importantly,
through
a
review
of
entertainment
offerings
and
discussions
with
industry
Representatives
the
force.
H
The
forecast
also
incorporates
expected
increases
in
taxable
activity
due
to
the
opening
of
new
properties.
Changes
in
entertainment
venues
at
existing
properties.
I've
said
this
many
times
before
the
live.
Entertainment
tax
is
one
of
our
the
most
difficult
taxes
that
the
board
has
to
forecast,
as
we
do
not
receive
any
of
the
statistical
detail
that
we
do
for
our
gaming.
H
G
Million
in
collections,
which
would
be
a
new
all-time
total
under
the
current
law,
which
taxes
emissions
only
at
nine
percent
fiscal
year.
To
date,
where
we
stand
is
a
total
of
28.7
million
in
collections,
that's
up
26.8
26.8
percent,
or
six
million
dollars
over
FY
22
through
September.
The
growth
comparison
for
the
remaining
nine
months
is
a
increase
of
971.2
percent.
For
24.
The
board
is
projecting
122.5
million
in
collections,
which
is
a
two
and
a
half
percent
decrease
from
fiscal
year
23
and
then
in.
H
H
Our
models
are
built
on
the
assumption
that
FY
23
growth
will
be
achieved
by
increased
showroom
occupancy
as
a
result
of
improved
business
travel,
lifting
business,
lifting
midweek
business
levels,
LED
sales
have
trailed
gross
Gaming
revenue
growth
over
the
past
19
months
and
have
not
peaked
due
to
the
lag
and
business
travel
compared
to
leisure
travel.
Midweek
group
convention
business
is
a
key
component
to
let
recovery
and
it's
crucial
for
large
Production
shows
and
headliners.
H
These
performances
include
multiple
shows
throughout
the
week
and
require
large
venues
to
be
at
maximum
capacity
in
order
to
be
profitable
additional
incremental
growth.
This
fiscal
year
is
forecasted
due
to
new
programming
at
the
Las
Vegas
Strip
at
multiple
properties,
including
the
park
MGM
wind
Venetian,
Caesars
Adele,
Awakenings,
John,
Cougar,
Mellencamp,
Garth,
Brooks,
Maroon,
5,
Keith,
Keith
Urban,
a
new
show
at
the
Paris
and,
like
I
said
Garth
Brooks
was
just
announced
this
morning
we
will
probably
have
to
come
back
to
you
in
December
and
the
FY
24
forecast.
I.
H
Imagine
will
be
increased
moving
into
24
and
25.
Let
will
begin
to
obviously
some
very
to
see
some
very
difficult
comparisons
due
to
known
programming
that
we
have
coming
line
on
online
and
FY
23
versus
unknown
programming
in
the
out
years
of
the
forecast
period.
It
is
anticipated
that
this
could
result
in
a
gradual
decline
in
collections
due
to
a
softening
of
the
average
ticket
price
charged
in
FY
23.
A
Consumer
spending
so
very
similar
to
gaming
percentage
fees.
We
anticipate
perhaps
a
softening
of
consumer
spending
along
with
difficult
comps
because
of
shows
versus
shows.
What's
what
we
know,
what
we
don't
know
and
that's
that's
kind
of
our
Outlook
as
we
move
past
23
what
we
have,
what
we're
calling
the
peak
into
24
and
25.,
and
with
that
I
can
answer
any
questions
you
might
have.
A
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
Economist
Governor's
finance
office
I'll
first
discuss
the
live,
entertainment
tax,
gaming
portion
referencing
slide.
Eight
of
my
presentation
visitation
is
one
of
the
main
drivers
for
both
gaming
and
non-gaming.
Let
my
forecast
assumes
an
increased
visitation
in
the
fourth
quarter
of
calendar
year
22
compared
to
the
same
period
in
21..
My
forecast
also
assumes
increased
growth
in
the
number
of
local
residents
who
spend
money
on
entertainment
because
of
the
tight
labor
market
and
growth
and
wages
that
we've
seen
recently.
A
Furthermore,
the
expectation
is
that
the
overall
trend
in
Las
Vegas
visitation
continues
to
increase,
which
is
expected
to
continue.
If
people
have
disposable
income
fiscal
year
to
date
through
September,
this
Revenue
source
is
up
21
or
7
million.
Over
the
year
today,
amount
collected
last
year,
my
forecast
elevates
in
fiscal
year
23
to
119.4
million
and
then
steadily
increases
in
fiscal
year,
24
and
25
to
122.8
million
and
124.8
million
respectively.
A
All
right
now
discuss
the
let
non-gaming
tax
forecast,
referencing
slide.
10
of
my
presentation.
Non-Gaming
revenues
tend
to
attract
High
Revenue
events
with
the
addition
of
T-Mobile
Arena,
Allegiant
stadium
and
other
large
non-gaming
event.
Centers
Las
Vegas
continues
to
reinvent
and
claim
its
stake
of
the
two-room
cast
capital
of
the
world.
Not
only
is
a
Las
Vegas,
an
international
brand,
but
it
has
the
infrastructure
to
host
over
300
000
tourists
in
a
week
and
I
think
that
really
sets
us
apart
from
other
Metro
areas
in
the
United
States
and
internationally.
A
As
an
example
in
fiscal
year,
23
is
Mr.
Lawton
alluded
to
earlier.
We
have
a
few
notable
events
scheduled
that
take
place
in
Las
Vegas
within
the
same
month.
There's
a
Taylor
Swift
concert,
an
Adele
concert,
the
sweet,
16
and
Elite
eight
NCAA
men's
basketball
games
and
then,
in
fiscal
year,
24
Las
Vegas
will
host
a
Super
Bowl.
A
My
forecast
also
assumes
visitation,
will
continue
to
increase
over
the
forecast
period
and
Las
Vegas
will
continue
to
land
these
large-scale
events,
especially
with
its
expansion
into
several
major
pro
sports
leagues,
and
having
the
ability
to
host
championships
for
those
leagues.
Both
at
the
Collegiate
level
and
professional
level
fiscal
year
today,
through
September,
this
Revenue
source
is
up
nearly
200
percent
or
600
million
or
I
mean
excuse
me,
6
million.
A
A
Thank
you
very
much
now
we'll
turn
to
miss
Scott
from
the
Department
of
Taxation
good
afternoon.
Thank
you,
chair
and
four
members.
For
the
record.
My
name
is
Erica
Scott
I'm,
with
the
Nevada
Department
of
Taxation
and
I
would
kind
of
like
to
go
over
my
working
hypothesis,
which
feeds
into
all
of
my
forecasting,
mostly
this
non-gaming
led
as
well,
so
in
putting
together
this
forecast.
A
As
we
discussed,
it's
been
pretty
difficult
due
to
unprecedented
events
such
as
covid,
postcovid,
recovery,
Rising
transportation
and
gas
costs,
the
ongoing
war
in
Ukraine
inflation,
the
raising
of
interest
rates
and
so
on
and
so
forth.
With
all
these
factors
in
mind,
the
Department's
working
hypothesis
for
this
forecast
is
as
follows.
In
general,
there
will
be
a
slowing
of
consumer
spending.
The
employment
rates
stay
consistent
and
healthy
inflation
rates,
slow
due
to
fiscal
policy
and
a
slowing
of
the
housing
market
due
to
the
rising
cost
of
mortgage
rates.
A
It
is
expected
that
Nevada
will
see
some
slowing
of
the
revenue
growth
at
lower
rates
than
what
we
experienced
in
2022,
but
still
steady
consumer
spending
in
fiscal
year.
2022
revenues
were
up
higher
than
expected
because
of
post-covet
economic
recovery.
In
addition,
inflation
we
experienced
last
year
was
driving
higher
revenues,
but
we
can
estimate
the
slowing
of
the
spending
effects
have
not
yet
been
felt.
We
are
also
assuming
employment
rates
will
continue
steadily
into
the
next
fiscal
year,
so
for
fiscal
year
2024
the
Assumption.
A
The
assumption
is
that
inflation
rates
will
slow,
while
Nevada
continues
to
have
sustained
real
economic
growth
due
to
entertainment
and
tourism
projects
being
completed,
and
this,
of
course,
I'm
referencing.
Some
of
the
same
projects
we've
been
discussing,
there's
MSG
sphere
formula,
one
Fountain
Blue
and
Super
Bowl.
The
some
of
these
recurring
events
are
more
of
what
I'm
I
have
my
eye
too
for
lat,
which
will
begin
in
fiscal
year
2024.
A
A
So
this
little
chart
is
showing
the
historic
change
since
2016
with
let
and
then
my
forecast
figures
that
are
in
there
as
we
can
see
from
this
table.
The
historic
revenues
from
the
non-gaming
lat
has
been
fairly
volatile
in
the
past,
even
prior
to
covet,
due
to
varying
size
and
timing
of
events
in
Nevada
for
fiscal
year,
2023
we're
coming
off
of
the
continued
postcovid
Resurgence
of
Live
Events.
When
let
revenues
were
up
946
percent,
so
I,
don't
think
any
of
us
would
assume
we'd
see
those
continued
changes
in
growth.
A
So,
however,
we
expect
to
see
the
revenues
continue
to
grow
in
this
area
again
due
not
only
to
Historic
live
events
that
we've
always
had,
such
as
EDC
Burning
Man
Life
is
Beautiful
all
of
those
events,
but
the
newly
added
venues
that
will
continue
to
bring
additional
events
to
Nevada
and
the
next
slide
is.
We
can
see
the
historic
revenues
from
let
in
this
forecast
graph
I
did
a
a
model
based
on
just
historic
figures.
Obviously,
it's
showing
the
lower
confidence
dropping
that
way
down,
but
we
know
we're
on
this
more.
A
We
don't
know
we
can
confidently
say
we're
we're
most
likely
on
a
an
upward
trajectory
of
this
tax,
we're
utilizing
the
upper
confidence
and
in
this
forecast,
for
the
reasons
that
I've
stated
so
the
new
permanent
event
spaces
and
new,
recurring
events
planned,
are
expected
to
drive.
Let
revenues
along
the
upward
trajectory
and
with
that
I
can
pause
for
any
questions
that
you
may
have.
A
The
forecast
should
be
the
upper
bound
line.
Okay,
yes,
just
checking
because
the
yellow
line
says
forecast,
but
did
you
revise
that
that
label
is
from
the
general
model
that,
when
it
yeah
I
went
with
the
figures
for
the
upper
bound?
Thank
you
for
that
clarification,
perfect.
A
A
Thank
you,
chair
Rosenthal,
for
the
record,
Christian
Tower
fiscal
analysis,
division,
legislative,
Council,
Borough,
economic
Forum
members
will
find
fiscals
live,
entertainment,
life,
entertainment,
tax,
forecast
numbers
either
on
this
green
sheet
on
paper
on
page
three
or
in
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
forecast
information
package
from
page
45
on,
and
that
is
also
what
you
see
here.
On
the
monitors
beginning
with
the
gaming
live
entertainment
tags,
fiscals
forecast
for
the
gaming
live
entertainment
tax
is
based
take
into
account
various
considerations
and
sorts
of
information.
A
For
example,
we
research,
ongoing
and
scheduled
shows
on
residencies
advertised
on
websites
and
other
publications
of
major
Las
Vegas
strip.
Gaming
revenues
have
gaming
venues
and
Mr
Lorton
has
basically
given
a
very
comprehensive
overview
on
that.
Before
the
recess,
so
I'm
not
going
to
repeat
any
of
that,
but
suffice
it
to
say
from
Santana
Aerosmith
cctop,
mainskin,
Tenacious,
D,
Adele,
John,
Fogerty
Garth
Brooks
to
a
New
Year's
concert
with
Killers
gaming
live
entertainment
seems
to
be
on
and
above
fiscal
year
2022
levels
for
our
forecast
of
the
gaming
live
entertainment
tax.
A
A
A
To
170
million
two
hundred
five
thousand
dollars
in
fiscal
year
2024
we
project
the
gaming,
live
entertainment
tax
to
increase
another
10.6
percent
to
129
million
six
or
twelve
thousand
dollars,
and
if
the
FY
2025
to
increase
by
4.7
percent
to
135
million
640
000
dollars
and
if
I
could,
unless
the
last
piece
of
information
I
would
like
to
provide
chart
three
in
the
fiscal
information
forecast
package,
which
you
also
see
on
the
monitor,
maybe
I
can
put
it
up
so
that
yeah.
A
So
what
you
see
in
this
chart
is
the
blue
line.
Is
gaming
live
entertainment,
tax
revenue
dollars
broken
down
by
visitor
and
the
blue
line
is,
would
say,
the
normal
dollar
amount,
the
absolute
dollar
amount.
The
red
line
is
the
red
graph
is
representing
gaming
tax
revenues
per
visitor
on
an
inflation-adjusted
basis,
and
what
you
see
is
that
our
our
forecast
projects
increasing
gaming
tax
revenues,
gaming
live
entertainment,
tax
revenues,
but
in
terms
of
inflation,
adjusted
dollars
per
visitor.
Our
forecast
projects
that
basically,
we
reach
pre-pandemic
levels
right.
A
A
A
A
A
One
interesting
aspect
in
relation
to
the
Super
Bowl
is
that
pursuant
to
NRS
368
a.200,
the
life
entertainment
tax
does
not
apply
to
an
athletic
contest
conducted
by
a
professional
team
based
in
this
state.
If
the
professional
team
based
in
the
state,
is
a
participant
in
this
contest,
so
in
other
words,
if
there
was
a
professional
sports
team
with
a
home
in
Nevada
that
were
to
participate
in
the
Super
Bowl,
that
would
have
an
effect
on
the
live
entertainment
tax
in
the
sense
that
we
wouldn't
get
any
live.
Entertainment
tax.
A
From
this
we
took
that
into
account
and
decided
to
split
the
anticipated
live
entertainment
tax
revenues
that
would
derive
from
the
Super
Bowl
into
half
so
that
in
either
event
with
or
without
participation
of
a
nevada-based
team,
our
forecast
will
not
be
too
far
off
from
actual
revenues.
A
In
the
view
of
these
considerations,
we
project
the
non-gaming
part
of
the
life
entertainment
tax
to
increase
in
FY
2023
when
compared
with
FY
2022
by
27.9
percent
to
50
million
998
thousand
dollars
in
FY
2024.
We
project
the
non-guide,
the
non-gaming
live
entertainment
tax
to
increase
by
33.9
percent
to
68
Million
worth
63
000,
and
this
takes
into
account
the
the
mentioned
special
events
of
the
Formula
One
race
and
the
Super
Bowl
in
fi
2025.
Without
the
Formula
One
and
without
the
Super
Bowl.
A
A
For
the
record
Linda
Rosenthal,
if
I,
could
just
ask
the
other
forecasters
their
assumptions
for
the
Super
Bowl
event,
given
the
the
difference,
whether
the
Raiders
are
participant
or
not,
foreign,
did
you
assume
any
kind
of
tax
benefit
from
the
Super
Bowl
in
24?
No,
not
on
not
on
the
gaming
LED
I
did
not
and
you
would
be
and
then
budget
for
the
record.
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
Economist
at
Noah
I
did
not
either
I
didn't
make
that
assumption
into
my
forecast.
Okay,
great
and
then
are
there.
A
Other
events
in
town
I
mean
I
assume
all
the
events
you
guys
have
have
stated
are
ones
that
are
subject
to
the
tax,
but
there
are
other
events
in
towns
that
that
aren't
subject
to
this
tax
that
we
should
be
aware
of
I.
Think
in
the
past
there
was
some
kind
of
electric
light
show
or
something
that
didn't
qualify.
Is
that
right.
A
Don't
know
on
the
on
the
gaming
side:
well,
just
either
side
either
side,
just
that's
okay,
it
doesn't
sound
like
you've
assumed
any
anything
anyway
in
any
of
the
forecasts.
I
was
just
just
curious
how
that
a
little
more
detail,
how
that
Tax
Works
since
there
was
a
definitely
a
legislative
Nuance
to
the
professional
sports
team
participating?
A
Yes,
there
are
several
exemptions
in
this
chapter
in
the
NRS
to
the
live
entertainment
tags
both
on
the
gaming
and
non-gaming
side
and
and
one
of
the
pertinent
ones
is
of
course,
that
professional
sports
teams
at
it
with
a
home
in
Nevada,
currently
on
a
current
law
exempt
from
from
paying
this
tax.
There
are
other
exemptions
that
I
believe
relate
to
certain
I,
believe
High
School
sports
I
would
have
to
look
that
up
and
come
back
to
the
to
the
Forum.
A
With
with
the
specific
information
on
that,
thank
you,
and
then
you
mentioned
in
the
the
law
that
you
cited,
that
it's
professional
sports
team,
so
thinking
about
March,
Madness
and
Elite,
eight,
nothing
that
would
prevent
ticket
sales
if
UNLV,
for
instance
or
Nevada,
were
involved
in
any
of
those
games.
That
would
limit
the
the
non-gaming
tax-
oh
it
it
would.
A
It
worked
absolutely
and
nothing
would
prevent
the
sale
of
tickets,
but
it
would
prevent
the
Department
of
Taxation
to
collect
the
tax
okay
if,
if
a
team
of
Nevada
participates
in
these
tournaments,
even
though
they're
not
professional
teams
at
that
point,
they're
collegiate
teams,
that's
correct!
Okay!
Thank
you.
A
A
Madam
chair,
if
I
made
just
on
the
lat
just
for
the
members,
verification
that
it
gets
interesting
with
the
professional
sports
exemption
and
because
we
just
they
had
the
Shamrock
classic
right,
I-
think
that's
what
they
called
it
at
Allegiant
and
it
was
BYU
and
Notre
Dame,
and
so
no
Nevada
team
in
there
so
taxable
if
Notre,
Dame
or
BYU
would
have
played
UNLV
under
the
law
it's
out.
A
Again,
probably
as
a
fiscal
person
for
the
state
of
Nevada
I
would
hope
that
the
NCAA
doesn't
put
a
Nevada
team
in
the
bracket
that
would
end
up
in
the
sweet,
16
and
final
eight
games
in
Las
Vegas,
because
right
most
likely
than
the
profession
the
college
sports
exemption
for
a
home-based
team
would
have
some
application
to
that
event.
Then,
and
then
the
last
thing
is
just
as
we
keep
in
mind
is
the
attacks.
A
So
those
are
just
some
of
the
nuances
when
we're
having
to
do
gaming
non-gaming
to
keep
track
of
who's
where
as
defense
and
then
you
can
see
the
forecast
move
differently
because
of
these
new
facilities
coming
on
and
where
we
have
to
book
the
revenue.
A
A
If
you
will
so
what
I
took
into
account
was
the
the
taxable
sales
components
of
the
different
Industries
and
when
putting
together
this
forecast,
you
know
we
took
a
look
at
all
the
different
revenues
coming
in
from
these
different
areas
and
then
in
the
I
I
kind
of
zoomed
out
as
far
as
historic
revenues
for
the
two
percent
sales
tax.
If
you
want
to
go
to
the
next
slide,
so
this
is
on
slide
eight.
A
It
shows
the
historic
revenues
under
this
tax
type,
just
the
two
percent
for
the
general
fund,
and
we
can
see
that
distinct
dip
in
2020
from
covid
and
the
post
covet
recovery
with
an
almost
over
correction
in
that
area
and
then,
of
course,
coming
off
of
the
the
volatile
past
few
years.
You
know
it's
very
difficult,
confidently
forecast
for
this.
However,
you
know
widening
that
scope
to
capture
the
last.
You
know
recession,
time
period
and
then
the
covid
time
period.
A
A
However,
utilizing
this
straight
historic
Trends
it's
much
lower
and
shows
a
drop,
almost
a
drop
off,
so
in
for
my
forecast,
I
opted
to
kind
of
average
the
two
kind
of
marry,
those
two
and
and
Tamp
down
the
exponential
growth
on
on
the
other
model,
to
kind
of
bring
it
down.
With
that
assumption
that
taxation's
saying
the
consumer
spending
is
going
to
slow
some,
but
so
essentially
yeah.
This
should
be,
in
my
opinion,
a
happy
medium
to
to
estimate
some
of
these
revenues
and
so
on
slide
10.
A
A
So
it's
assumed
this
was
an
effect
of
inflation,
driving
the
higher
revenues
and
so
for
some
of
the
same
items
that
consumers
were
purchasing.
They
were
just
paying
that
higher
higher
price
so
and
also
capturing
some
increased
in
spending
post
covid
that
may
have
spilled
into
FY
22..
A
A
For
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal,
so
just
one
quick
question
the
chart
that
you
showed
you
know
slide
nine,
where
you
show
Moody's
compared
to
actuals
and
then
how
you
kind
of
at
least
on
the
chart.
It
looks
like
you
diverge.
A
Oh
sorry,
I
was
taking
the
green
bar
as
your
forecast.
That's
a
historical
Trend
forecast,
never
mind,
never
mind.
Thank
you,
no
questions,
I
think
so,
then
we
will
move
over
Mr
Qatari
from
the
budget
office.
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record.
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
Economist
Governor's
finance
office
I
used
a
regression
model
to
forecast
retail
sales
driven
by
variables,
such
as
visitation
employment
wages
and
total
gaming
volume.
I
also
use
many
of
the
same
assumptions
that
I
provided
in
my
opening
remarks.
A
A
Turning
to
slide
13.,
you
can
see
the
top
12
taxable
retail
sales
revenue
generating
rating
Industries
in
Nevada.
The
dashed
lines
on
the
facet
chart
are
the
current
taxable
retail
sales
amounts.
As
of
August
of
2022,
the
charts
are
ordered
from
the
top
rank
to
the
12th,
ranked
so
left
being
the
the
highest
right
being
the
lowest.
A
It's
important
to
note
that
almost
all
12
taxable
retail
sales
Industries
are
elevated,
far
past
their
pre-pandemic
levels
and
continue
on
a
positive
trend,
as
you
can
see
represented
by
the
dash
line,
which
represents
the
most
current
month
of
data
which
is
August
of
2022..
Next,
if
you
look
at
non-store
retailers,
which
is
fifth
in
line
on
the
chart
from
2018
to
2020
non-store,
retailers
have
shot
up
from
the
17th
largest
taxable
sales
source
to
the
fifth,
increasing
by
nearly
400
million
over
four
years
and
is
trending
on
a
vertical
path.
A
As
remote
sellers
increase
their
market
share
in
the
overall
retail
space
to
provide
you
with
some
additional
context,
the
US
Supreme
Court
ruled
in
South
Dakota
versus
Wayfair
in
2018.
That
states
can
require
remote
sellers
to
collect
and
remit
sales
or
use
tax
on
sales
delivered
to
locations
within
their
state,
regardless
of
whether
or
not
they
have
a
physical
location
in
the
state.
Consistent
with
the
Wayfair
decision,
Nevada
adopted
regulations
or
assembly
Bill
445
at
the
2019
session
requiring
remote,
Sellers
and
Marketplace
facilitators
to
collect
taxes
on
retail
sales
into
Nevada.
A
A
I
I
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Russell
ginnon
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
Division,
and
so
the
sales
tax
portion
in
our
forecast
for
the
fiscal
Mouse
division
in
their
packet
begins
on
page
53..
The
table
that
shows
the
forecast
on
fiscal
year
bases
on
at
excellent
page
54
is
which
I
have
up
on
the
screen.
That's
showing
over
here
in
my
back
right
shoulder.
I
If
we
can
get
it
up
on
the
other
screen
and
I,
don't
want
to
I,
don't
think
I
have
to
go
over
because
when
we
went
through
gaming,
you
know
what
I'm
thinking
and
so
taxable
sales.
The
starting
point
is
an
occasion.
That's
modeling
taxable
sales
per
employee
is
a
function
of
personal
income,
visitors,
construction,
employment,
new
car
registrations,
and
so,
instead
of
using
like
the
the
variable
set,
Moody's
was
using
their
equation.
I
We
have
we
have
the
visitors
trying
to
pick
up
the
the
out-of-state
stuff
versus
using
the
national
personal
recreational
con
consumption
expenditures
that
they
do,
and
so
what
we
found
is
that,
because
of
what's
going
on
with
the
strong
growth
and
the
equation,
has
a
hard
time,
picking
up
and
explaining,
what's
been
going
on
for
the
last
several
quarters.
But
after
that,
it's
when
things
normalize
the
equation,
didn't
do
so
bad.
I
So
that
was
our
starting
point
of
the
forecast
and
you
can
see
when
you
look
at
either
the
tables
or
the
the
line
charts.
All
of
our
forecasts
are
pretty
much
laying
on
top
of
each
other
for
all
practical
purposes,
and
so
I,
don't
quite
know
what's
going
on
here,
that
it
won't
display
my
stuff.
I
So
anyway,
what
I
wanted
to
do
is
just
try
and
go
through
a
couple
of
the
charts
in
terms
of
more
to
try
and
help
to
form
with
regards
to
you
have
four
forecasts
done
four
different
ways
and
they're
all
pretty
much
grouped
in
there
pretty
tight.
So
that
doesn't
right
is,
is
the
form
you
can
go
well.
Are
they
all?
Okay?
I
Are
they
all
wrong
as
a
forecast
since
they're
all
in
there,
and
so
when
I
look
at
it,
I'm
not
bothered
by
fiscal's
forecast,
it
seems
strong,
and
if
you
look
at
the
chart
on
page
58
of
the
packet
you'll,
you
can
see
the
it's
showing
the
two
percent
tax
Collections,
and
so
it's
it's
there's
an
inflection
point
in
the
forecast,
and
so
sorry,
let
me
at
least
kill
the
other
screens.
I
Not
kicking
out
the
other
one
when
it's
kicking,
so
here's
the
sales
tax
collections.
So
there's
an
inflection
point
where
right
it
starts
increasing
as
decreasing
right
there
compared
to
what
it
has
been.
But
when
you
look
at
the
the
quarterly
forecast,
like
the
the
last
quarter,
grew
approximately
10.3
percent,
but
inflation
was
8.3,
so
you
still
had
two
percent
real
growth
in
there.
I
So
when
you
go
look
at
the
fiscal
year,
forecast
and
I've
got
taxable
sales
growing
about
six
point:
nine
percent,
but
inflation
is
projected
to
be
6.3
percent,
which
is
really
almost
like.
No
not
much
real
growth
in
taxable
sales,
so
part
of
me
is
wondering
gosh
with
inflation,
where
it
is,
could
it
actually
be
stronger
than
what
I
have?
I
But
we
know
that
under
the
Baseline
scenario,
for
Moody's
and
and
where
we've
sort
of
got
Incorporated
in
ours
is
that
the
feds
will
raise
interest
rates
here,
but
then
be
successful
and
then
start
to
bring
interest
rates
back
in
the
second
half
of
FY
2003,
and
thus
inflation
also
will
start
to
right.
We
can't
do
eight
percent
and
eight
percent
I
hope
we'll
start.
L
Looking
at
what
inflation
is
expected
to
do
and
what
I
have
growing
in
taxable
sales,
it's
hard
to
figure
out
how
much
real
growth
is
occurring,
because
you
have
to
believe
there's
real
growth
occurring
in
the
state,
irrespective
of
the
high
inflation
and
and
when
people
come
as
our
visitors
right,
they're,
bringing
a
budget.
That's
for
hotel
rooms
for
gambling
for
entertainment
for
eating.
Well,
so
right
we
have
taxes
attaching
to
most
of
those
things
so
you're.
L
L
L
So
you
can
see
how
it's
sort
of
running
in
the
trend
here,
pre-pandemic
and
then
it
went
down
and
it's
jumped
way
up
here.
Well,
no
surprise
because
we
had
taxable
sales
much
stronger
than
the
employment,
but
so
but
then
how
well
still
continuing
fairly
strong
but
I.
Don't
know
that
that
bothers
me
that
much
given
our
employment
forecast
in
relation
to
our
taxable
sales
forecast,
because
we
don't,
we
have
employment,
continue
to
grow,
but
we
don't
have
full
recovery
of
pre-pandemic
levels
of
the
Leisure
gaming
and
Hospitality
sector
of
employment.
L
So
thus
the
denominator
isn't
quite
what
it
would
be
pre-pandemic.
So
then
the
ratio
should
stay
up
over
the
forecast,
Horizon
and
and
I.
Don't
think,
that's
unreasonable
to
think
that
Leisure
gaming
Hospitality
will
get
back
to
what
was
pre-pandemic.
It
will
sometime
over
growth
in
the
future,
but
not
now
it's
a
little
like
construction
from
the
Great
Recession
construction
was
up
there
way
high
and
then
it
settled
back
and
I
think
there's
people
that
thought
well
gosh.
We
got
to
get
those
constructions
jobs
back
to
where
they
were
pretty
Great
Recession.
L
That
hasn't
happened
nor
I,
don't
think
a
reasonable
person
would
expect
well
now,
I
think
the
pandemic
is
for
the
hospitality
industry.
They
have
a
new
production
function
that
they
can
produce
the
the
same
good
and
service
for
their
clients,
with
less
labor
in
their
production
function.
So
I,
don't
think
it's
unreasonable
to
think
that
the
leisure
Hospitality
that
employment
will
not
get
back
up
right
here
quickly
back
to
those
pre-pandemic
because
they
have
a
new.
So
then,
when
I
look
at
that
ratio,
it
seems
like
wow,
it's
strong,
but
I.
L
L
So
you
can
see
it
was
sort
of
going
down
here,
pre-pandemic
and
then
really
went
down
and
then
obviously
has
come
back
up
and
we
have
it
running
sort
of
flat,
if
not
bumping
up
a
little
and
then
come
back
well.
It
goes
up
because
you
have
those
special
events:
F1
and
the
Super
Bowl
that
are
going
to
generate
taxable
sales,
not
necessarily
tied
to
Nevada.
M
They'll
be
bringing
their
personal
income
to
Nevada
right,
but
the
one
thing
that
since
Mr
Terry
mentioned
it
I
I,
think
why
I
look
at
this.
Is
it's
not
just
about
hey
we're
going
to
be
getting
visitors?
We
have
the
special
events,
but
we
have
to
keep
in
mind
that
being
able
to
capture
the
online
retail
sales
was
a
pretty
important
thing
for
Nevada's
taxable
sales
base.
M
So
with
the
Wayfair
decision,
which
we
implemented
to
regulation,
the
the
catch
online,
retailers
and
then
the
wave,
then
we
did
the
marketplace
facilitator
bill
in
the
2019
session
that
then
required.
Amazon
and
those
types
of
entities
actually
collect
the
sales
tax
for
the
third
party.
Retailers
I
think
most
of
that
shows
up,
what's
called
the
Nix
454
non-store
retailers
next
category
reported
by
the
department
taxation.
If
you
you
go,
look
at
those
charts
that
we
put
up
it's
now.
M
The
floats
between
the
fourth
or
fifth
largest,
taxable
sales
category
rank
biggest
and
FY
22
I
believe
this
number
came
in
at
number.
Four,
it's
about
seven
percent
of
the
taxable
sales
before
it
was
down
there
around
11
12
in
terms
of
rent.
So
right,
it's
clearly
had
a
fact
well
that
phenomenon
of
people
purchasing
online
is
not
going
well,
but
we
have
it
in
the
sales
tax
base.
So
as
inflation
goes
on
and
they're
purchasing
we're
now
capturing
that.
M
So
that's
a
good
thing
for
taxable
sales
from
the
state's
perspective
of
improving
that
that
tax
base-
and
if
you
look
at
this
chart
it's
maybe
you
can
see
the
hand
there
where
you
can
sort
of
see
that
this
these
blips.
This
is
the
fourth
quarter.
This
is
Christmas
right
in
Black,
Friday
or
whatever
Thursday
Tuesday,
whatever
days
they're
now
doing,
but
you
can
see
how
it
was
going
down
also,
but
then
it
flattened
here
Wayfarer,
that's
2018.!
M
M
Look
is
your
Christmas
sales,
because
it's
a
big
thing,
and
so
thus
the
pattern
that
we
have
here
I,
don't
think
it's
bothersome
and
then
just
looking
at
the
taxable
sales
for
Las,
Vegas
visitor,
there's
two
charts
here
right
to
show
you
what
actually
looks
like
and
then
I
compress
the
scale.
So
you
can
actually
see
something
out
here.
So
you
can
see
this
was
gradually
increasing
pre-pandemic
and
then
it
flattens
out
a
little
bit
here
in
the
forecast.
M
So
it's
not
even
increasing
like
it
was
here-
and
this
is
probably
some
of
this
was
helped
by
the
the
it
looks
like
it
turns
a
little
bit
because
of
the
online
sales
getting
picked
up,
which
wouldn't
visitors
probably
aren't
coming
here
and
ordering
stuff
online.
M
So
that's
why
this
ratio,
the
numerator
I,
should
have
done
better
the
denominator,
but
it's
relatively
flat
in
terms
of
compared
to
visitors,
so
I'm
sort
of
like
that's
one
thing
I'll
have
to
think
about
when
I'm
reconsidering
the
forecast
for
December,
because
with
the
special
events
should
it
stays
sort
of
flat,
or
should
it
have
a
little
bit
of
bump
out
here,
you
can
see
the
kick
up,
but
it
should
it
be
a
have
a
little
bit
of
upslope
in
terms
of
the
taxable
sales
per
visitor
to
those
special
two
special
events,
given
the
order
of
magnitude
that
they
may
have,
and
then
here's
just
the
Statewide
personal
income
for
employee-
and
this
is
one
of
those
there.
M
M
Because
we
have
stronger
non-wage
due
to
Social
Security
being
stronger,
because
the
inflation
adjustment
and
dividends
interests
and
rent
so
by
the
it's
sort
of
a
little
stronger
slope
than
you
saw
pre-pandemic,
and
then
here's
just
the
visitors
per
employee,
and
so
it's
coming
back
up
and
by
the
end
of
the
forecast,
because
this
thing
was
falling
and
so
but
I
think
it
should
start
to
come
up
a
little
bit
again
because
of
the
not
recouping
all
the
loss
of
the
Leisure
gaming
and
Hospitality.
M
So
the
denominators
changing
a
little
bit
versus
the
visitors,
so
the
ratio
can
come
up
and
stay
up.
In
my
view,
and
so
with
that
Madam
chair.
Those
are
the
points
I
wanted
to
try
and
make
is
the
the
metrics
that
we
look
at
to
try
and
gut
check
the
forecast
to
think
that
fiscals
I,
don't
think
it's
unreasonable
and
it's
laying
in
there
on
top
of
the
other
four.
So
are
they
are
any
one
of
them
unreasonable
and
with
that
I
can
answer
any
questions
that
the
members
may
have.
M
M
Scott
again
with
Department
of
Taxation
for
the
record,
so
this
will
be
fairly
brief.
M
Over
time,
I
I
essentially.
A
A
On
slide,
13
put
out
this
forecast
with
a
pretty
consistent
five
to
seven
percent
growth.
It's
again,
it's
very
consistent
so
and
that's
pretty
much
all
I
have
for
you.
E
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
Economist
Governor's
finance
office.
Please
refer
to
slide
16
for
my
insurance
premium
tax
forecast,
the
insurance
premium
tax
is
a
relatively
stable
Revenue
in
the
state
and
it's
not
subject,
subject
to
as
many
fluctuations
as
some
of
the
taxes
that
are
more
closely
aligned
with
tourism,
such
as
the
gaming
percentage
fee
or
live
entertainment
tax.
With
with
that
in
mind,
I
estimated
the
ipt
revenue
with
a
regression
model
based
on
households,
medical
CPI
and
the
10-year
treasury
rate.
E
Those
estimates
come
out
of
the
Moody's
forecast
database.
My
forecast
steadily
increases
throughout
the
forecast
period
with
collections
coming
in
at
569
million
in
fiscal
year,
23.
612
million
in
fiscal
year
24
and
657.9
million
in
fiscal
year.
25.,
and
that
concludes
my
insurance
premium.
Tax
forecast
I'd
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions.
Thank
you.
E
Thank
you,
madam
chair
members
of
The
Forum
good
afternoon
for
the
record.
I
am
Michael
Nakamoto,
Chief
principal
Deputy,
fiscal
analyst
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
of
the
legislative
Council
Bureau,
the
insurance
premium
tax
forecast
for
the
fiscal
analysis.
Division
begins
on
page
69
of
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
packet
and
the
forecast
itself
is
on
page
71,
and
this
is
for
the
three
returning
members
a
table
that
we
have
done
before.
But
we've
have
a
little
bit
more
summary
information
to
it
and
I'll
actually
turn
to
that.
On
the
on
the
screen.
E
It
used
to
be
that
we
reported
a
bunch
of
different
categories
such
as
workers,
compensation
and
Industrial
Insurance,
independently
procured
refunds,
interest
things
like
that,
because
that's
not
really
the
gist
of
the
forecast.
We
decided
to
collapse
those
down
into
all
other
collections,
which
you
can
see.
Actually
we
have
as
a
negative
to
the
forecast,
because
predominantly
the
collections
Accounting
in
the
all
other
collections
are
really
adjustments
to
Prior
periods.
So
it
ends
up
turning
it
negative.
E
But
basically,
what
we're
looking
at
are
those
those
quarter
ending
categories,
the
ones
that
make
up
around
95
percent
of
the
collections
for
the
tax
and
as
we
look
at
this
tax,
this
is
one
that
is
actually
fairly
stable
and
I
had
page
72
up
as
showing
annual
collections
from
FY
92
to
the
present,
and
you
can
see
that
the
only
place
where
the
collections
really
went
down
was
in
the
recession.
We
hit
this
peak
around
the
Great
Recession
and
then
it
slid
just
a
little
bit
from
FYE
2007
to
FY
2008.
E
Then
it
went
down
for
a
couple
years
and
stayed
around
this
bottom
and
then
started
coming
back
up.
But
one
of
the
things
that
you'll
notice,
when
you
got
to
around
2000
FY
2013
FY
2014,
is
that
that
increase
was
Far
steeper
than
you
had
even
before
the
recession
and
those
of
you
who
were
on
the
Forum
back
then
remember
that
we
were
talking
about
the
Affordable
Care
Act,
the
Affordable
Care
Act,
the
Affordable
Care
interact
and
okay.
E
We
are
now
getting
close
to
a
decade
into
the
Affordable
Care
Act,
and
you
can
see
the
growth
rates
have
resulted
from
the
insurance
premium
tax,
since
the
implementation
of
that,
with
the
exception
of
that
little
divot
that
you
see
in
FY
2020
because
of
the
pandemic,
this
has
been
a
largely
stable
Revenue
source
and
it
is
by
all
appearance,
is
going
to
be
that
way.
E
The
insurance
division
was
talking
about
small
group
market
rate,
increases
of
7.1
percent
and
individual
market
rate
increases
of
nine
percent.
So
when
you
have
four
tenths
of
the
market
increasing
by
anywhere
between
seven
and
nine
percent,
it's
going
to
be
another
one
of
those
Revenue
sources
that
remains
I,
think
fairly
stable
and
growing
at
a
fairly
stable
rate.
E
When
going
back
to
our
forecast
on
page
71,
one
of
the
things
that
we're
really
interested
in
seeing
is
obviously
this
first
quarter
of
collections
that
the
Department
of
Taxation
is
going
to
be
releasing
toward
the
end
of
November,
because
if
you
look
at
FY
2022
that
quarter
ending
June
30th
that
number
of
143.2
million-
that
is
a
record
collection.
So
you
go
back
over
the
history
of
this.
You
don't
see
anything
that
is
even
close
to
that
for
this
category,
and
so
we
want
to
see
what
this
first
quarter
looks
like.
E
If
it's
we
have
it
pulling
back
a
little
bit
from
there,
but
if
it
continues
on
the
the
pace
that
it
was,
and
we
see
something
closer
to
143
million
dollars
than
even
the
fiscal
analysis.
Division
forecast
of
5.4
percent
growth
in
this
fiscal
year
is
potentially
too
low
and,
with
those
increased
rate
announce
or
those
announced
increases
of
between
seven
and
nine
percent,
it
could
well
be
so.
E
This
is
something
that
we're
going
to
look
at
and
keep
in
mind,
but
this
is
one
where
we're
going
to
continue
this
steady
growth
of
around
between
five
and
a
half
and
six
percent
throughout
the
forecast
Horizon
just
because,
as
we've
pointed
out,
regardless
of
the
economic
conditions,
insurance
is
still
something
that
people
are
likely
to
purchase,
be
it
for
their
homes,
their
cars,
obviously
for
their
cars.
E
Since
it's
a
requirement
in
this
state
to
carry
insurance
for
themselves
and
having
things
such
as
High
subsidy
payments
through
the
ACA
through
the
inflation
reduction
acts
that
are
going
to
carry
through
to
the
end
of
2025,
at
least
under
current
federal
law.
There
is
not
a
lot
of
things
that
we
see.
A
L
A
May
have
noticed
that
the
forecast
that
Miss
Scott
had
on
her
presentation
don't
match
what
is
on
here.
There
is
an
additional
about
20
21
million
dollars
that
is
added
to
the
forecast
for
the
Surplus
lines,
portion
of
the
insurance
premium
tax,
which
is
collected
and
forecasted
separately
by
the
insurance
division
of
the
Department
of
Business
and
Industry.
So
what
is
on
table
late
is
the
sum
of
those
two
forecasts,
rather
than
just
the
Department
of
Taxation
forecast.
So
again,
I
would
be
glad.
E
A
A
Thank
you,
chairman
Erica
Scott,
for
the
record
Department
of
Taxation.
So
with
the.
E
Modified
business
tax
forecast,
we
can
go
to
slide
15.,
starting
with
the
general
business,
so
the
historic.
A
Rates
for
the
general
business
of
modified
business
tax-
these
revenues
we
saw-
you
know
generally
that
dip
from
covid,
of
course,
and
then
the
upward
trajectory
again
because
of
the
healthy
employment
rates
that
we
have
been
seeing.
It's
estimated
that
it's
going
to
flatten
out
a
bit
and
then,
of
course,
we
have
the
modified
business
tax
rate
reduction
coming
up
in
fy24,
so
that's
going
to
be
factored
in
as
well.
H
And
then
the
financial
institutions
modified
business
tax.
We
see
some
growth
in
that
industry
as
far
as
the
the
upward
trajectory
of
of
wages
coming
from
that
that
type
of
tax
and
then
we
we
expect
that
growth
to
be
sustained
again
in
FY,
23,
24
and
25..
H
However,
the
dollar
the
dollars
collected
may
be
seeing
a
dip
due
to
the
rate
reduction
in
fy24
and
on
slide
17.
We
see
the
mining
modified
business
tax,
which
we
see
a
little
bit
of
volatility
here,
basically
I'm,
seeing
perhaps
due
to
some
employment
and
shortage
shortages
in
the
industry,
also
the
seasonality
and
of
of
mining
on
that
chart
there
and
then
on
slide.
H
18
I
have
my
actual
forecasted
figures
for
the
modified
business
tax
broken
up
into
well,
it
has
the
total
of
the
modified
business
tax,
seeing
that
a
slight
leveling,
often
in
fy23
than
the
dip
in
fy24,
and
essentially
I
I'm
forecasting
that
there's
going
to
be
some
Resurgence
in
the
fy25,
but
because
of
the
reduced
rate,
we're
not
going
to
be
seeing
as
much
of
the
growth
in
the
revenue
Source.
Even
if
wages
are
up
for
the
reported
wages
for
modified
business
tax.
A
So
roughly
the
the
estimated
rate
reduction
in
my
forecast
is
is
roughly
at
237
million
dollar
difference.
If,
if
we
were
to
stay
at
the
same
rate,
instead
of
reducing
it
in
FY
24,
but
we
know
that
that's
not
the
case.
So.
M
We
still
estimate
revenues
to
be
up
overall
and
fy25
due
to
sustained
healthy
employment
rates
from
the
Department
of
Taxation,
and
with
that
I'll
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions
you
may
have
Linda
Rosenthal
for
the
record,
so
just
curious
on
the
the
mining.
If
you
look
at
the
the
charts
that
show
the
comparison
amongst
forecasters,
I
think
the
other
two
forecasters
are
showing
growth
and
you're,
actually
forecasting
a
decline.
M
I
know
you
said
seasonality
and
if
you
could
just
explain
what
might
be
driving
that
difference
so
with
the
historic
Trends
I
think
it's
putting
a
lot
more
weight
on
historic
Trends
in
that
industry,
rather
than
actual
recent
growth
in
that
industry.
If,
if
I
may,
I
would
enjoy
to
have
some
more
time
with
this
model
and
and
develop
it
a
bit
more
yeah,
no,
no
worries
at
all
I.
M
M
Great
thank
you
so
now
we'll
move
again
to
Mr
Qatari.
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Jason
gortari
executive
branch,
Economist
Governor's
finance
office.
Please
refer
to
slide
18
for
my
MBT,
non-financial
forecast
or
general
business
as
it's
titled.
On
my
slide,
my
Outlook
is
based
on
the
most
up-to-date
employment
statistics.
My
forecast
shows
steadily
increases
employment
throughout
the
forecast
period.
M
Nevada
has
currently
surpassed
its
pre-pandemic
job
Peak
and
continues
to
add
jobs
with
data.
As
of
September
of
2022,
told
non-farm
is
up
13
500
jobs
and
the
private
sector
is
up
18
500
jobs
from
its
pre-pandemic
peak
levels.
The
current
employment
level
is
one
million
four
hundred
thousand
four
hundred
sixty
three
thousand
one
hundred
also
the
unemployment
rate
remains
relatively
low.
M
Historically
speaking
at
four
point:
four
percent:
it's
important
to
note
that
post
pandemic
a
shift
has
taken
place
in
Nevada's
labor
market,
while
the
Leisure
and
hospitality
industry
is
down
roughly
35
or
30
000
jobs
from
its
pre-pandemic
peak
manufacturing
and
transportation
and
warehousing
are
up
thirty
thousand
jobs,
collectively,
with
average
weekly
wages
in
both
these
industries.
More
than
doubling
those
Leisure
and
hospitality.
M
Next
for
MBT
General
business
collection
forecast,
slide,
19
provides
those
the
red
bars
represent,
actual
revenue
forecast
and
the
green
bars
represent
the
forecast
before
the
MBT
rate,
buy
Down
Under
the
old
rates.
My
estimates
steadily
increased
throughout
the
forecast
period,
with
828.7
million
in
fiscal
year,
23
870
7.6
million
in
fiscal
year
24
and
929.4
million
in
fiscal
year
25..
M
However,
after
accounting
for
the
MBT
rate
buy
down,
which
is
scheduled,
occur
in
fiscal
year,
24
fiscal
year,
24
and
25
amounts
will
be
745.1
million
and
789.1
million
respectively,
as
seen
in
the
red
bars
or
about
130
million
less
in
fiscal
year,
24
and
140
million
less
in
fiscal
year.
25.
M
Next,
my
financial
institutions,
MBT
forecast,
which
starts
with
the
financial
employment
outlook
on
Slide
21.
M
employment
data
through
September,
shows
that
financial
industry
employment
is
nearly
4
000
jobs
above
its
pre-pandemic
peak
and
its
average
weekly
wages
are
nearly
2
700
per
week,
the
third
highest
in
the
State,
while
higher
interest
rates
may
impact
employment
in
this
industry,
the
expectation
is
that'll,
get
a
handle
on
inflation
within
the
forecast
period,
and
employment
in
this
industry
will
continue
to
grow.
M
Next
page
22
summarizes
my
MBT
Financial
collection
forecast
under
the
old
rates.
My
estimates
moderately
increased
throughout
the
forecast
period,
coming
in
at
53.4
million
in
fiscal
year,
23
55.6
million
in
fiscal
year
24
and.
L
Follow
the
trend
of
gold
prices
which
are
currently
hovering
at
an
all-time
high,
the
mining
industry's
average
weekly
wages
are
the
highest
in
the
state
as
well
near
7
to
2700
dollars
per
week,
and
employment
is
expected
to
remain
stable
in
this
industry
over
the
forecast
period,
as
many
of
the
efficiencies
have
occurred
already
through
the
Dumont
merger
and
with
with
new
lithium
companies
adding
their
presence
in
the
state
page
25
summarizes
my
MBT
mining
collection
forecasts.
Under
the
old
rate.
L
My
estimates
moderately
increase
through
the
forecast
period
with
collections
coming
in
at
21.8
million
in
fiscal
year,
23
22.4
million
in
fiscal
year
24.
and
23.1
million
in
fiscal
year
25.
However,
after
accounting
for
the
MBT
rate
buy
down
the
fiscal
year,
24
and
25
amounts
will
be
18.8
million
and
19.4
million
respectively,
as
shown
in
the
red
bars
or
roughly
3
million
less
in
each
fiscal
year,
and
with
that
that
concludes
my
MBT
presentation.
I'd
be
happy
to
answer
any
questions.
L
And
now
we'll
turn
to
Miss
Powers
good
afternoon
Madame
chair
and
the
members
of
the
economic
Forum.
This
is
Susanna
Powers
Deputy
physical
analyst,
with
the
physical
analysis,
division
I'd
like
to
just
point
out
quickly
that
it's
Force
forecaster
completed
their
projections
without
the
rate
reduction
and
those
forecasts
are
presented
in
table
one
on
page
65
of
your
packet.
So
it's
the
very
last
couple
Pages.
L
It
is
easier
to
compare
it
to
individual
forecasts
across
the
fiscal
years
when
keeping
the
tax
rate
unchanged
and
then
the
table
two
on
page
66
makes
the
mathematical
calculations
needed
to
translate
the
forecasts
to
account
for
the
impact
of
the
reduced
tax
rates.
So
then
those
numbers
on
table
2
match
the
figures
displayed
either
in
your
table,
tree
of
your
packet
or
the
table,
eight,
which
is
your
green
paper
that
was
provided
outside
the
packet.
So
I
just
wanted
to
make
a
quick
note
about
that
before
I
start
with
my
own
forecast,
all
right.
L
So
when
I
talk
about
non-financial,
sometimes
my
colleagues
here
have
referred
them
as
general
business.
So
just
wanted
to
point
that
out
that
it's
the
same
thing
and
I
think
I
just
lost
the
page
here.
H
Taxation
will
be
posting
fiscal
2023
first
quarter,
MPT
collections
later
this
month
and
it
may
result
in
some
changes
to
our
final
December
forecast.
H
The
fiscal
analysis,
division
forecasts,
the
three
components
of
the
MPT
separately
as
the
weight
spaces
and
the
level
of
healthcare
deductions
for
the
non-financial
financial
and
Mining
portions
of
the
tax,
as
they
are
different
weights
and
salary
disbursements
are
driven
by
employment,
as
well
as
the
average
weights
per
employee
assumptions
for
non-financial.
We
forecast
the
major
sectors
subject
to
MPT
separately,
and
then
we
rolled
them
up
to
get
to
the
total.
H
Some
items
considered
in
our
NFI
MPT
forecast
assumptions
are
some
of
the
inflationary
pressures
we're
seeing
in
wages
in
fiscal
23,
and
then
we
also
did
consider
many
of
the
special
events
occurring
in
our
state
in
fiscal
24.,
and
then
we
expect
to
things
to
normalize.
As
we
March
towards
fiscal
2025.,
as
the
inflation
will
slow
down,
we
should
expect
to
see
the
way
it's
quote
slow
down
as
well.
H
H
Then
the
non-financial
wages
forecast
is
a
function
of
non-financial
employment
and
non-financial
weights
per
employee
forecast.
We
start
with
pea
data
Bureau
of
economic
analysis
data
and
we
adjust
what
we
expect:
taxation
to
report
for
non-financial
wages
in
relation
to
Bea
reported
wages.
This
information
is
displayed
on
table.
2B
on
page
81
of
our
packet,
the
fiscal
analysis
packet
in
columns
a
through
d,
fiscal
23,
non-financial
wage
growth
is
5.8
percent
and
fiscal
24
growth
is
5.5
and
fiscal
25
growth
is
five
percent.
H
Next
is
our
financial
institution
MPT
forecast?
Let
me
go
find
that.
H
H
We
expect
some
negative
impact
of
higher
interest
rate
on
interest
rate,
sensitive
areas
of
the
financial
sector,
such
as
markets
and
other
lending
related
employment,
and
then
we
expect
the
economy
normalized
for
MPT
Financial
forecast,
I'm
starting
on
table
3A.
On
page
85
of
our
packing
financial
sector,
employment
is
forecast
at
2.1
percent
growth
in
fiscal
23.,
a
slight
decline
of
0.4
percent
in
fiscal
24
and
1.3
percent
growth
in
fiscal
25..
H
H
H
H
As
you
heard
earlier,
this
industry
has
found
efficiencies
from
mergers
and
for
the
time
being,
the
forecast
assumes
somewhat
of
a
steady
state
in
this
industry
for
MPT
mining
forecast.
Please
see
this
table
4A
on
page
89,
on
our
packet
for
reference
mining
sector,
employment
is
forecast
to
decline
by
1.1
percent
in
fiscal
23.
That's
a
space
done
the
most
recent
data
that
we
have
and
then
stay
steady
with
regard
to
average
annual
weights
per
employee.
We
protect
4.5
percent
growth
in
fiscal
23,
2.6
growth
in
fiscal
24
and
2.4
percent
growth
in
fiscal
25..
H
Total
mining
wages
again
are
also
a
function
of
employment
and
weights
per
employee
forecasts,
and
if
I
can
refer
you
to
table
4B
on
page
90
of
our
packet
in
columns
a
through
D,
you
will
see
the
total
mining
wages
forecast.
Fiscal
23
growth
rate
is
3.5
percent,
followed
by
2.6
percent
in
fiscal
24
and
finally,
2.5
percent
in
fiscal
25..
H
Looking
at
the
collections
forecast
for
mining
modified
business
tax,
you
will
find
that
amount
in
column
K,
and
it
is
accounting
for
the
tax
rate
reduction
that
will
take
place
in
fiscal
24
and
25..
Fiscal
23
collections
are
21.6
million,
18.6
million
dollars
in
24
and
19.1
million
dollars
in
fiscal
25..
H
H
Madam
chair
before
we
move
on
to
the
real
property
transfer
tax
for
the
record
Michael
Nakamoto,
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division,
When,
Miss
Powers
referred
to
the
tables
about
the
modified
business
tax
forecast
with
and
without
the
rate
reduction.
They
are
in
on
pages
65
and
66
of
the
economic
Forum
packet
table.
H
One
shows
what
the
rates
would
be
under
the
what
is
the
current
rate
in
FY
23,
but
because
the
provisions
of
the
law
require
the
rate
reduction
to
occur
in
FY
24,
we
wanted
to
show
you
kind
of
what
the
economic
activity
was.
That
was
drawing
the
wages
that
would
be
driving
the
forecasts
and
then
the
table
two
shows
the
reduction
in
the
forecast
as
a
result
of
that
rate
reduction.
So
with
that
I
I
appreciate
the
chairs
Indulgence
and
we
can
go
on
to
the
real
property
transfer
text.
Thank
you.
Thank
you.
H
Okay,
so
for
the
real
property
transfer
tax,
this
is
Erica
Scott
Economist,
with
the
Department
of
Taxation
again
for
the
record,
so
on
the
historic
Trends
again
this
the
graph
that
I've
got
on
the
slide
20.
H
Historically,
we
can
see
the
rise
in
revenues
for
this
tax.
Obviously
the
last
few
years,
growth
in
the
housing
market
because
of
the
low
interest
rates
historically
low
mortgage
rates
in
fiscal
year,
21,
where
a
lot
of
people
took
advantage
of
that
selling
lots
of
properties
being
sold
in
a
lot
of
collect
collections
for
this
rptt
tax.
H
So,
however,
due
to
the
increased
interest
rates,
it's
expected,
of
course,
to
flatten
out,
although
I
I
don't
foresee
a
negative
slide
in
this
tax,
at
least
in
my
forecast,
but
definitely
some
slowing
of
the
housing
market.
Of
course,
we're
not
likely
to
see
the
growth
rates
from
FYE
22
again
and
on
slide.
21
I've
got
my
forecast
figures
there.
H
So
the
peak
of
this
growth
in
is
in
FY,
22
and
then,
of
course,
moving
down
to
just
a
seven
percent
and
six
percent
growth
in
the
next
two
fiscal
years
is
the
forecast
for
the
Department
of
Taxation
and
with
that
I
can
answer
any
questions
that
you
may
have
for
the
record.
Linda
Rosenthal,
just
one
question
on
your
assumptions.
So
slowing
of
the
market
due
to
interest
rates,
make
sense
I
mean.
H
A
A
home,
despite
the
higher
interest
rates,
if
it
makes
more
sense
to
purchase
a
home
than
to
continue
to
rent
or,
however,
however,
you
see
that
scenario
I
think
the
the
the
demand
for
housing
is
still
driving.
My
forecast
figures.
M
Tax
collections
performed
more
recently
like
over
the
past
six
months.
For
instance,
I
will
have
to
research
that
and
get
back
to
you,
I,
don't
know
off
the
top
of
my
head
and
don't
have
that
in
front
of
me
today,
but
for
sure
again,
working
with
these
models
more
for
the
next
upcoming
economic
Forum
definitely
have
more
time
to
to
be
with
these,
these
models
and
figures
as
well.
Okay,
thanks.
Thank
you.
M
L
If
you
look
at
the
top
monthly
chart
at
the
start
of
calendar
year,
21,
which
is
represented
by
the
orange
dot,
Builders,
seem
to
be
set
to
work
on
digging
us
out
of
that
hole.
We
created
from
the
2008
to
2019
period
recently.
It
appears
that
higher
interest
rates,
spook
Builders
a
bit
as
seen
in
the
September
22
number
or
the
Blue
Dot,
but
did
not
discourage
them
enough
to
drop
to
the
09
to
2012
levels.
L
Next,
on
slide,
28
slide
28
provides
a
forecast
for
single
family
housing
permits
in
the
state,
assuming
the
feds
get
a
hold
of
inflation
during
the
forecast
period.
Housing
permits
should
see
a
dip
in
2023
and
then
pick
up
from
where
they
left
off
in
fiscal
year.
2022
for
the
remainder
of
the
forecast
period.
L
Next
slide,
29
provides
Nevada's,
12-month
percent
change
in
housing
price
index.
The
annotations
represent
point
to
point
16
month,
decelerations,
with
the
last
only
showing.
A
An
eight-month
to
current
deceleration,
those
annotations
are
represented
by
the
black
dashed
lines
and
black
numbers
on
the
chart.
While
it's
highly
unlikely,
these
periods
are
exactly
anogolous
to
the
current
period.
I
believe
they
serve
as
a
useful
reference
when
trying
to
form
an
opinion
of
the
current.
N
Next
slide
slide
30
my
estimates
for
HPI
growth
roughly
and
with
a
five
percent
decrease
by
the
end
of
the
forecast
period.
N
Moving
on
to
slide
31
slide,
31
provides
some
historical
context
on
the
U.S
average
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rate
in
October
of
22.
The
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rates
reach
their
highest
rates
and
over
20
years
last
time
the
rate
was
higher
was
in
March
of
2002
when
the
rate
was
7.18
percent.
However,
the
rate
has
decreased
slightly
in
November
of
2022
to
6.95
from
October's
7.08
percent.
N
Next
slide,
32
and
33
show
a
projection
of
existing
home
sales
in
Nevada
on
a
calendar
year
and
fiscal
year
basis.
These
the
forecasts
expect
existing
home
sales
to
decline
in
the
first
year
of
the
forecast
period
due
to
the
impact
of
the
relatively
High
30-year
fixed
mortgage
rates,
and
that
are
expected
to
increase
in
the
final
two
years,
with
the
expectation
that
the
more
mortgage
rates
will
continue
to
improve.
N
With
all
that
information
in
mind,
real
property
transfer
tax
is
a
function
of
sales
volume
and
price,
driven
largely
by
the
residential
real
estate
sector.
Looking
at
slide
34
with
the
expectation
that
building
will
rebound
home,
prices
won't
bottom
out,
like
they
did
in
2008,
and
mortgage
rates
will
decline
over
the
forecast
period.
I
forecasted
collections
to
come
in
at
155.3
million
in
fiscal
year.
N
23
then
pick
up
in
fiscal
year,
24
and
25
to
169
point
or
165.9
million
and
176.4
million
respectively,
and
with
that
I'd
be
happy
to
entertain
any
questions
if
y'all
have
any.
Thank
you.
N
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record
Michael
Nakamoto,
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
division
of
the
legislative,
Council,
Bureau
and
I
think
I
will
start
my
presentation
by
actually
answering
Mr
zahn's
question
about
how
the
tax
has
been
performing
historically
and
if
you
turn
to
page
104
of
fiscal's
packet,
which
is
actually
the
the
page
that
is
up
on
the
screen
to
my
right.
N
This
is
actual
and
forecast
our
PTT
collections
in
thousands.
So
the
last
quarter,
for
which
the
Department
of
Taxation
has
reported
actual
information,
is
the
second
quarter
of
2022.
So
it's
the
June
July
or
the
May
June
July
period
of
this
year
of
just
short
of
46
point
or
40
5.9,
almost
46
million
dollars,
but
you'll
notice
there
that
2022
third
quarter,
that
is
as
close
to
an
actual
number
as
we
can
get
without
actually
being
an
actual
number
and
as
I
I
open
up
my
presentation
on
this
particular
tax.
N
Every
time
we
have
the
forecast,
the
real
property
transfer
tax
is
a
Statewide
tax
or
it's
a
tax
that
has
Statewide
components
and
it
has
local
components
and
the
way
that
it
is
actually
collected
is
that
the
Statewide
portion,
which
is
a
dollar
Thirty
per
500
of
value
of
the
property
being
transferred.
This
is
actually
collected
at
the
county
level,
so
the
County
Recorder,
when
they
are
getting
the
request
for
a
title,
transfer
the
taxes
paid
at
the
time
of
the
transfer.
N
So
they
are
the
ones
who
are
receiving
the
revenue.
They
keep
a
commission
because
they're
entitled
to
under
the
law,
and
then
they
remit
the
collections
on
a
monthly
or
a
quarterly
basis
to
the
the
state
controller.
So
we
are
actually
able
to
go
into
the
controller
system
and
see
the
information
on
this
tax
as
it's
remitted,
and
so
we
have
five
of
the
the
17
counties,
Washoe
Elko
lion,
Lander
and
Eureka,
who
remit
their
collections
on
a
monthly
basis.
Clark
and
the
11
other
counties
reported
on
a
quarterly
basis.
N
And
so
when
we
were
finalizing
fiscal's
forecast,
we
had
15
of
the
17
counties
for
the
first
quarter.
The
only
ones
we
were
missing
were
Nye
and
story
as
of
right
now,
because
I
checked
over
the
weekend,
16
of
the
17
had
posted.
We
had
gotten
to
Nye
County,
so
the
the
forecasts
that
you're
going
to
see
for
the
fiscal
analysis
division,
at
least
for
that
first
quarter.
N
It's
going
to
have
a
little
bit
of
an
adjustment
to
it,
depending
on
what
Story,
County
actually
posts,
but
that
33.5
million
thereabouts
or
the
minus
23.1
percent-
that's
pretty
close
to
the
actual.
So
you
can
see
by
and
large,
we've
lost
more
than
a
third
of
the
tax
between
the
second
quarter
and
the
third
quarter
and
the
other
information
that
I
can
talk
about
here
on
that
particular
page.
N
This
total
Statewide
residential
property
sales
and
for
this
particular
forecast
we
went
to
the
the
real
estate
site,
Redfin
and
they're,
really
good
about
having
total
residential
sales.
They
break
it
out
by
co-ops,
condos,
single-family
residences
and
I
just
took
the
aggregate
amount,
and
so
this
is
not
seasonally
adjusted
data
so
that
you
can
see
that
third
quarter.
That
is
not
highlighted
there,
that
is
their
actual
number
they're
reporting
their
sales
through
September.
N
So
it's
you
can
see
that
there
has
been
a
pretty
significant
drop
off
and
we
have
talked
about
all
of
the
different
reasons
why
this
is
occurring.
The
increase
in
interest
rates
prices
probably
got
to
a
level
that
were
a
little
bit
inflated.
A
I
there
are
people
talking
about
whether
this
is
a
bubble,
a
correction,
a
reset
I,
don't
know
if
I
want
to
go
so
far
as
saying
that,
there's
a
bubble
that
is
going
to
burst.
But
what
became
abundantly
clear
to
a
lot
of
people,
especially
through
the
pandemic
in
this
work
at
home
environment,
is
that
people
in
a
lot
of
places
where
it
was
not
particularly
affordable
to
buy
a
house,
found
that
as
long
as
they
were
telecommuting
and.
A
M
And
anytime,
you
look
at
these
lists
of
these
markets
that
are
going
to
correct
by
15
20
percent
in
terms
of
home
values,
Reno
and
Las
Vegas
show
up
at
at
or
near
the
top
of
these
lists.
So
the
rptt
forecasts
that
we're
presenting
that
is
also
on
that
sheet
is
reflecting
that
that
you
have
this
General
slowdown
in
sales
because
of
interest
rates.
M
We
do
not
think
looking
at
Moody's
forecasts
of
of
mortgage
rates
going
into
the
end
of
this
year
that
they
are
still
are
going
to
fall
as
the
FED
is
causing
or
they're
increasing
the
federal
funds
rate
again
and
who
knows
how
many
times
it
might
happen
before
they
get
this
inflation
thing
under
control,
they
may
be
increasing
it
again.
We
might
be
seeing
interest
rates
above
seven
percent
and
getting
closer
to
seven
and
a
half
percent.
M
Before
all
is
is
said
and
done,
and
as
long
as
that
occurs,
there
is
very
little
incentive
for
anybody
to
purchase
a
house
right
now.
There
was
something
that
I
was
reading
this
morning.
That
talked
about
just
the
volume
of
people
even
applying
for
a
mortgage
right
now
is
down
about
40
percent
year
to
year.
People
are
just
not
interested
in
buying
a
house,
and
as
long
as
the
interest
rates
stay
high
as
long
as
prices
stay
high,
that's
going
to
continue.
The
question
then
becomes
okay.
M
When
does
all
of
this
correct
and
based
on
everything
that
I'm
reading
and
seeing
okay,
the
FED
is
going
to
get
to
a
point
where
they're
not
going
to
be
increasing
rates
anymore
and
they
will
fall.
The
mortgage
rate
will
fall,
I'll
be
at
a
more
slow
pace,
but
the
sales,
and
so
the
prices
are
going
to
have
to
fall
for
a
little
while
before
they
actually
start
coming
back,
and
we
see
that
not
coming
back
until
the
end
of
the
forecast
cycle.
M
So
if
you
look
at
table
8,
for
example,
you
can
see
that
we're
forecasting
a
decline
of
31.1
percent
in
FY
23,
so
the
the
next
couple
of
quarters
are
going
to
be
worse
in
this
first
quarter,
which
we
are
treating
almost
as
an
actual
and
then
in
FY
24.
We
have
it
going
down
another
14
and
then,
when
you
get
to
fy25,
you
get
a
little
bit
of
recovery
in
the
market.
M
The
one
thing
that
I
found
really
intriguing
when
I
looked
at
table,
eight
is
when
we
put
table
8
together
for
this
first
meeting.
You
can
see
the
economic
forums
forecast,
at
least
for
the
first
year
and
the
forecast
of
for
this
one.
It's
it's.
The
May
4th
forecast
for
the
two
year
out,
going
back
to
calendar
year
21
and
the
forecast
that
the
economic
Forum
selected
for
this
Revenue
was
the
fiscal
analysis
division's
forecast.
We
are
a
hundred
and
sixteen
thousand
dollars
below
that
forecast.
M
We
just
did
not
see
that
there
was
going
to
be
this
giant
growth
in
FY
22.
We
missed
that
forecast
by
52
million
dollars,
so
we
saw
a
correction
in
the
market.
We
just
didn't
see
that
it
was
going
to
be
correcting
from
where
it
was
at.
So
that
is
kind
of
the
story
that
we're
going
to
tell
I'm,
not
sure
that
there's
going
to
be
a
significant
revision
to
this
forecast
that
we
would
present
to
you
in
December,
unless
we.
A
M
L
L
This
is
the
process
that
the
Forum
directed
staff
to
use,
based
on
the
discussions
and
actions
at
the
June
2022
meeting
and
reaffirmed
at
the
October
meeting.
The
Commerce
tax
is
an
annual
tax
on
Nevada
gross
revenue
and
businesses,
but
it
is
paid
on
paid.
It
is
paid
on
a
fiscal
year
basis.
The
tax
rate
varies
based
on
the
type
of
Industry.
The
business
is
primarily
engaged
in
the
first
4
million
of
gross
revenue
is
exempt
from
the
tax.
The
taxes
due
45
days
after
the
fiscal
year
ends
on
June
30th.
L
So
when
the
new
fiscal
year
starts,
we
know
now
that
approximately
10
of
Commerce
tax
collection
collections
will
come
from
prior
periods.
We
need
to
account
for
this
tale,
because
we
we
know
that
our
Revenue
gets
deposited
then
the
following
next
the
following
year.
So
on
this
table,
one
on
page
67,
it
summarizes
hobby
account
for
this
spillover.
L
L
Table
3
on
page
69
shows
five
years
of
history
for
selected
economic
indicators
for
the
Nevada
economy
that
were
can
be
kind
of
used
as
comparison,
but
I'm
still
on
table
one.
The
First
Column
applies
the
projected
growth
rates
to
Commerce
tax,
based
on
Moody's
Analytics
October
2022
Baseline
forecast
for
Nevada
cross-domestic
product.
Based
on
that
scenario,
Commerce
tax
growth
in
fiscal
23
is
6.8
percent,
5.5
percent
in
fiscal
24
and
6.3
percent
in
fiscal
25..
L
Then
there
are
other
growth
scenarios
or
growth
rate
scenarios
for
consideration,
and
the
last
column
is
the
consensus
forecast
that
was
prepared
by
taxation,
gfos
budget
office
and
the
physical
analysis
division.
That's
the
gray
column
towards
the
right
side,
fiscal
22
estimate
and
fiscal
23
forecast
clearly
have
have
an
inflation
component.
The
two
major
events,
the
formula
race
in
Las
Vegas
and
the
Super
Bowl,
are
part
of
our
fiscal
24
forecast
and
then
assuming
more
of
an
average
year
for
fiscal
25..
L
Our
consensus
forecast
growth
rates
for
the
Commerce
tax
and
the
business
period
basis
are
seven
percent
for
fiscal
23,
6.5
percent
for
fiscal
24
and
5.5
percent
for
fiscal
25..
Then,
on
table
two
on
page
68
we
take
the
business
period
covers
tax
and
we
convert
it
into
an
accounting
basis
and
that
conversion
produces
different
growth
rates.
This
process
allows
us
to
estimate
how
the
Commerce
tax
will
be
deposited
in
the
state's
accounting
system.
L
The
consensus
forecast
is,
in
the
last
column,
in
a
craycon
in
a
color
gray
in
fiscal
23,
we
estimate
the
Commerce
tax
will
be
hold
on
the
second
I
am
yes
I'm
in
a
right
table
in
fiscal
23,
we
estimate
the
Commerce
tax
will
be
300,
1.8
million
and
321.6
million
in
fiscal
24
and
339.5
million
in
fiscal
25..
O
Is
the
last
set
of
tables
for
this
attend
item?
This
page
has
two
sets
of
tables
table
one
and
a
top
and
table
two
and
a
bottom
table.
One
brings
in
the
Commerce
tax
business
period
with
estimated
tail
and
the
associated
Commerce
tax
credits
that
can
be
taken
against
modified
business
tax
by
law.
Businesses
can
take
up
to
fifty
percent
of
their
Commerce
tax
paid
during
the
preceding
year
as
created
against
their
modified
business
tax
liability
if
they
have
payroll
in
the
state.
O
This
is
the
reason
why
Commerce
tax
credits
are
part
of
the
forecast,
as
Commerce
tax
paid
determines
how
much
of
Commerce
tax
credits
may
be
taking
against
modified
business
tax.
Historically,
this
the
amount
of
Commerce
tax
credits
have
been
slightly
above
20
percent
of
the
Commerce
tax.
We
estimate
that
this
percentage
will
fall
below
20
in
a
forecast
period,
because
we
believe
Commerce
tax
will
grow
more
than
the
taxable
wages
and
because
of
shrinking
modified
business
tax
base
due
to
the
lower
lower
tax
rates,
starting
in
fiscal
24.
O
table
2,
then,
in
this
page
on
this
page,
translates
Commerce
at
tax
and
the
credits
into
an
accounting
period
with
those
estimated
tails
and
Associated
Commerce
tax
credits
that
can
be
taken
against
modified
business
tax.
Consensus
estimate
for
the
Commerce
tax
credits
is
50.6
million
in
fiscal
23,
54.5
million
in
fiscal
24
and
58.1
million
in
fiscal
25..
This
does
conclude
my
presentation
on
this
at
send
item
briefly.
O
I
just
want
to
mention
that
we
have
posted
the
same
Commerce
tax
tables
and
pie,
charts
that
were
part
of
your
October
2022
meeting
information
and
those
tables
and
charts
can
be
found
on
today's
economic
forums
meeting
page
in
Nellis,
and
they
break
down
Commerce
tax
information
available
by
business
category
from
fiscal
2016
and
to
fiscal,
20
22
with
any
historical
information
we
have.
So
thank
you
for
the
opportunity
to
present
to
you
today.
Are
there
any
questions.
O
Thank
you
all
of
the
the
presenters
today
for
for
all
the
work
you
do
putting
these
four
forecasts
together
and
helping
us
as
body
come
up
with
the
the
best
forecast
we
can
for
the
the
state
legislature
and
the
governor.
So
that
concludes
the
review
and
discussion
of
the
major
fund.
O
Revenue
sources
we'll
now
move
to
agenda
item
seven,
which
is
the
review
and
approval
of
the
preliminary
forecasts
of
the
minor
general
fund
revenues
and
tax
credits
for
FY,
23,
fy24
and
fy25,
which
were
approved
by
the
technical
advisory
committee
on
future
State
revenues
at
its
November
4th
2022
meeting
for
this
agenda
item
I'll
turn
it
over
to
Mr
ginden.
Thank
you,
madam
chair,
for
the
record.
O
Russell
gennon,
with
the
fiscal
analysis,
Division
and
I
would
just
comment
on
Mr
Levitt's
comment,
which
is
that's
what
happens
when
you're
trying
to
get
12
months
of
Revenue
and
a
fiscal
year
period
so
being
actively
involved
with
the
legislature
and
Governor
Sandoval
and
working
through
that
it
was
trying
to
get
12
months
of
Revenue
in
the
first
fiscal
year.
So
the
original
proposal
was
for
the
text
to
be
quarterly,
but
right
you
need
time
for
people
to
put
a
tax
in
place
and
Taxation
administer
it.
So
they
were
thinking.
O
But
we
felt
we
knew
once
they
were
doing
that
during
session
approving
it
was
going
to
create
interest
for
forecasters
and
for
members
of
the
economic
Forum
to
be
able
to
try
and
handle
this
to
on
a
business
activity
versus
accounting,
because
there
could
be
the
switch
also
for
accounting
for
the
credits
can
be
taken
against
the
MBT.
So
maybe
I
would
concur
with
you
that
it
did
make
life
interesting
for
us
Mr.
O
O
So,
with
this
agenda
item
Madam
chair
members
of
The
Forum
I,
don't
plan
to
go
into
intimate
detail
on
these.
Are
there
are
a
few
points
I
want
to
make
for
the
members,
as
well
as
for
the
public
that
may
be
listening
in
terms
of
nuances,
but
these
are
the
preliminary
forecasts
so,
like
the
other
ones,
we'll
be
getting
another
month
of
Revenue,
and
so
thus
we'll
be
looking
at
that
to
see
if
there
needs
to
be
any
adjustments
most
likely.
O
The
adjustments
would
be
on
the
front
end,
not
the
back
end
of
the
forecast
for
most
of
these,
but
I
will,
as
I
go
through,
try
and
bring
to
your
attention,
those
that
are
like
the
the
discussion
and
the
questioning
that's
been
going
on
today.
Some
of
these
minor
Revenue
sources
are
tied
to
events
such
as
F1
and
Super
Bowl
and
visitors
coming
and
those
such
such.
So
the
forecasters
are
trying
to
take
that
into
account.
O
It's
we
call
them
the
major
miners
internally,
because
it's
easier
for
staff
to
give
things
names,
and
then
we
know
what
we're
talking
about,
and
then
you
have
Table
Six,
which
is
actually
the
forecast
approved
by
the
technical
advisory
committee
after
November
4th
meeting
and
again
remember
the
process
is
that,
based
on
the
form's
direction
to
the
attack
and
Taxation
gfo
and
fiscal
staff,
we're
all
sort
of
working
as
they
have
to
attack
so
physical
and
and
budget?
We
worked
with
the
agencies.
O
Ask
them
for
a
forecast,
then
we
look
at
their
forecasts.
We
do
our
own
and
then
budget
and
fiscal
get
together
and
produce
a
consensus
to
bring
forward
to
the
attack.
The
tack
just
like
this
body
is
allowed
to
have
presentations.
They
ask
questions
and
then
either
we'll
make
adjustments
or
not
to
the
consensus.
So
what
you
have
here
is
the
consensus
forecast
that
was
brought
forward
by
fiscal
and
budget
staff
to
the
TAC
and
was
approved
without
modification.
O
So,
as
you
look
at
the
table,
the
first
two
under
the
mining
text
category
is
the
net
proceeds
of
mineral
stocks
and
the
mining
gross
revenue,
tax,
gold
and
silver.
So
the
net
proceeds
of
mineral
has
been
the
existing
tax,
and
so
this
is
the
portion
of
the
tax
that
belongs
to
the
state
general
fund.
Under
current
law
for
FY
23.
Only
then
beginning
in
FY
24,
based
on
2021
legislation
legislation,
it
gets
dedicated
to
the
State
education
fund
to
become
a
K-12
funding
source.
O
O
25
million
dollars,
I
think
exempt,
and
then
the
there's
two
tax
rates
on
the
brackets
above
that,
and
so
then
excuse
me
the
first
20
million
exemption
and
then
the
22
150
million
is
taxed
at
0.75
and
anything
over
150
million
is
1.1
percent,
and
this
is
on
a
calendar
12
month.
Calendar
basis
is
the
tax
year,
but
under
the
law
that
the
the
proceeds
from
this
tax
went
to
the
general
fund
through
fy23
and
then
go
to
the
State
education
fund
beginning
in
fy24.
O
That's
why
you
see
the
forecast
there
only
for
23
and
then
it's
blank,
so
I
just
wanted
to
make
sure
the
more
probably
anyone
listening.
If
they
go.
Look
at
these
tables
and
start
making
conclusions,
they
could
be
misled
without
understanding
what's
actually
going
on,
then
the
advanced
license
fee.
You
see
there
under
the
gaming
section,
that's
the
one!
O
That's
when
a
new
property
comes
online
or
there's
a
change
in
licenses
such
that
it
would
trigger
the
advanced
license
fee,
but
that's
after
the
First
full
month
of
business,
The
Entity
is
required
to
pay
three
times
that
tax
and
it's
it
seeds
the
estimated
fee
adjustment
process.
So
you
can
see
the
that
FY
24
goes
up
because
of
Fontainebleau
is
a
new
property
coming
online,
the
transportation
connection
excise
tax,
which
is
GL
3073,
the
second
from
the
bottom.
O
It's
generally
referred
to,
Lots
by
lots
of
people's
Uber
and
Lyft
tax,
but
it's
just
not
Uber
Lyft.
It's
the
motor
carriers
in
the
business
of.
A
Transporting
passengers
I.E
taxi
cabs
limousines,
those
types
of
entities:
this
is
the
tax
of
three
percent
on
the
gross
for
net
revenue
of
the
charge
for
the
patron
using
the
services,
and
so
I
just
want
to
point
out.
You
can
see
it
goes
down
in
fy24.
That's
because
the
first
five
million
of
every
biennium
is
required
to
be
dedicated
to
the
state
highway
fund.
N
So
you
get
the
up
down
pattern
up
down
pattern.
So
if
you
want
to
get
an
idea,
add
5
million
to
the
33
million,
and
you
can
see
it's
expected
to
increase
there.
That's
there
is
consideration.
It
was
given
to
you
with
the
F1
and
the
Super
Bowl
that
there
should
be
an
increase
in
this
tax,
with
people
coming
and
probably
using
the
facilities
of
Transportation
connection
entities
such
as
Uber
and
Lyft,
but
also
and
but
then
the
taxi
cabs
are
actually
covered.
N
Also
or
excuse
me,
short-term
car
rental
is
covered
under
in
other
tax,
so
this
is
the
taxi
cabs,
Uber
and
Lyft
type
entities.
Then
on
the
third
page,
because
the
second
page
is
blank.
That's
all
modified
business
tax
you
have
under
GL
3051,
maybe.
A
About
a
little
almost
two-thirds
of
the
way
down
the
page
just
want
to
point
out
here
that
this
is
only
25
percent
of
the
tax,
that
of
the
state
portion
of
the
governmental
Services
tax
and
this
tax.
That's
based.
M
On
the
value
of
your
vehicle,
when
you
register
it
each
year
and
so
25
is
dedicated
to
state
general
funds,
75
percent
of
it
is
dedicated
to
the
state
highway
fund,
and
that
is
the
percentage
for
the
forecast
Horizon
so
I,
just
because
if
you
go
look
at
the
charts
that
of
the
or
tables
of
the
history,
you
can
see
this
one
moves
around
because
during
the
Great
Recession,
as
well
as
the
pandemic,
the
the
legislature
is
making
a
decision
to
allocate
some
of
the
portions
from
the
state
highway
fund
back
to
the
general
fund
to
keep
the
general
funds
budget
more
intact
in
relation
to
the
highway
fund
budget.
M
But
it's
just
I
wanted
to
point
out
that
if
you
look
at
this,
it's
not
that
if
you
go
historically
we're
I
think
it's
going
to
go
down.
It's
just
it's
about
a
two
and
a
half
percent
increase
a
year.
Looking
at
historically
the
the
thing
is
worth
pointing
out
here
for
this
tax
for
the
state's
portion
of
governmental
service
attacks.
M
This
the
state's
portion
does
not
benefit
from
new
vehicles,
so
when
a
new
vehicle
is
purchased
and
first
registered,
it
benefits
the
local
and
School
District
portion
or
now
the
portion
that's
dedicated,
State
education
fund.
It
doesn't
tell
the
new
car
is
registered
in
the
second
in
succeeding
years
that
it
generates
money
for
this
portion
of
the
GST.
M
It's
good
on
the
next
page
under
athletic
commission
fees.
This
is
the
one
that
attaches
to
unarmed
combat,
so
the
one
of
the
principal
divers
here
is
UFC
and
those
matches
as
well
as
some
of
the
other
arm
comeback
boxing
would
be
included.
M
A
Athletic
commission,
based
on
requests
by
danaway
in
the
UFC
they've,
approved
the
slap
fighting
now
as
an
event.
So
what
we
might
have
to
contact
the
athletic
commission
to
just
see
what,
if
that
may
mean
for
us
to
take
into
consideration
for
any
information
available
on
when
events
might
start
occurring
and
whether
or
not
needs
to
be
any
adjustment
made
to
the
forecast,
because
that
would
be
on
combat
and
she'd
come
under
it.
But
we.
M
Just
saw
the
articles
on
that
actually
over
the
weekend
and
want
to
search
Circle
back
with
the
athletic
Commission.
So
then,
in
the
in
the
fees
and
fines
block,
it's
GL
3066
the
short-term
car
lease.
This
is
as
I
mentioned,
on
short-term
car
rental
companies.
F
M
Required
to
have
the
tax
collected
on
the
value
of
the
vehicle
that
the
person's
renting
and
being
so
it's
10
Statewide
is
the
rate
and
then
Clark
and
Washington
have
an
additional
two
percent.
That's
dedicated
and
goes
back
to
special
purposes
in
those
two
counties,
but
so
it's
subsumed
into
this
category
just
so
that
I've
identified
that
statutory
change
from
the
21.
F
L
One
worth
probably
noting
is
the
GL
3290
under
interest
income,
the
treasurer
section
you
can
see
the
larger
amounts
there,
because
it
was
about
24.2
million
dollars
actual
in
FY
2022,
and
it
goes
up
to
almost
60
million
and
then
109
million
and
back
down
to
89..
The
reason
for
this
is
I
think
fairly
intuitive
short-term.
The
Federal
Reserve
is
Raising
short-term
interest
rates,
so
thus
the
the
expected
in
earnings
that
the
treasurer
can
get
from
investing
the
state's
portfolio,
especially
having
to
sometimes
stay
shorter,
because
right.
L
This
is
the
money
that's
coming
in,
but
also
being
used
to
cover
the
bills
going
out,
but
also
in
the
near
term.
Here
we
have
not
only
on
the
interest
rate
side
of
this
Revenue
Source,
but,
as
was
reported,
we
were
one
billion
dollars
over
the
forecast
for
FY
2022.
L
If
you
look
at
sort
of
where
these
forecasts
are
settling
the
FY
23
forecast
is
going
to
be
revised
up,
probably
substantially
over
the
May
21
forecast,
whether
it's
another
billion
or
not,
we'll
have
to
see
in
December,
so
that
obviously
adds
additional
Revenue
that
the
treasurer
has
available
for
investment
and
right
now
right.
L
The
Appropriations
for
the
are
not
changing
the
meet
the
re,
the
revenue
coming
in
above
so
it
provides
additional
Revenue
there
that
can
be
invested,
and
it
also
we
have
the
the
federal
stimulus
money
that
we
got
and
so
as
that's
being
expensed,
but
under
the
federal
guidance,
as
well
as
our
state
law
interest
that
the
treasurer
can
earn
on
the
federal
stimulus.
The
interest
from
that
is
required
to
be
dedicated
to
the
unrestricted
state
general
fund.
So
those
are
the
things
just
when
you
go.
Look
at
that.
L
L
So,
that's
why
you
sort
of
see
the
hump
in
FY
24
and
then
come
back
and
settle
back
a
little
bit
in
fy25,
and
so
with
that
Madam,
chair
and
members
Forum,
or
the
comments
I
wanted
to
make
I
I
just
did
want
to
point
out
when
you
go
look
at
on
table
seven
on
page
83,
which
sort
of
takes
it's
another
way
of
showing
the
sort
of
major
minors
and
then
the
tax
credits
and
I
guess
I
should
come
at
the
tax
credits.
L
Come
from
us
working
with
the
agencies
responsible
for
administering
those,
principally
taxation,
the
film
office
and
co-ed,
and-
and
we
evaluate
that-
and
so
the
forecast
you
have
here
are
the
consensus
forecasts
that
fiscal
and
budget
brought
forward
to
the
technical
advisor
committee
and
we're
approved
by
them.
L
The
and
the
probably
the
one
worth
noting
the
most
is
that
the
educational
choice
or
I'll
go
back
to
the
table,
the
educational
choice
or
excuse
me,
the
Nevada
New
Market
jobs
act,
Ones
Will
are
staying
up
over
the
forecast
Rising,
because
if
you
go
back
and
look
it
started,
it
fell
off.
L
But
now
it's
coming
back
up
into
24
million,
because
that
program
was
renewed
for
another
200
million
dollars
worth
of
contributions
that
insurance
companies
can
make,
and
then
they
can
get
credits
equal
to
58
percent,
so
200
million
times
58
is
160
million
dollars,
and
so
the
percentages
are
I
believe
12,
twelve
percent
eleven
percent
eleven
percent
over
a
five-year
period.
So
the
twelve
percent
is
worth
approximately
24
million
dollars
a
year.
L
So
that's
what
you,
while
you
see
that
and
then
the
affordable
housing,
transferable
tax
credit
program,
that's
coming
from
the
housing
division
is
planning
us.
They
think
that
they'll
be
it's
a
program
that
they
were
just
getting
up
and
going
when
the
pandemic
hit.
So
it
sort
of
got
backed
off
a
little
bit,
but
they
have
a
pro
I
believe.
L
One
project
proved
that
they've
allocated
three
million,
but
they
believe
partnering
the
state's
program
with
the
federal
stimulus
money,
as
well
as
the
federal
programs
that
they'll
be
able
to
get
more
projects
going
for
affordable
housing
and
potentially
get
to
the
10
million
dollars
for
each
year,
and
so
that
seemed
reasonable
for
us
to
put
the
maximum
amount
of
liability
on
the
sheets
as
a
fiscal
person.
L
A
Biennium
difference
because
this
sort
of
tries
to
lay
it
out,
so
you
can
see
that
it's,
the
current
preliminary
forecast
for
the
minor
general
fund,
Revenue
sources
and
the
tax
credits
is
approximately
150
million
dollars
below.
N
A
surprise
because,
right
you
saw
up
above
that
we're
taking
two
Revenue
sources:
the
net
proceeds
and
minerals
and
the
gold
and
silver
off
of
the
sheets
for
24
and
25..
N
So,
and
so
those
are
so
if
you
would
back
those
out
that
effect,
we
would
probably
be
up
about
105
million
so
that
the
miners
are
forecast
increase,
but
once
you
have
to
account
for
the
changes
of
taking
Revenue
off
the
sheets
that
actually
is
going
down
in
the
2325
biennium
compared
to
the
21-23
and
I
just
wanted
to
make
that
point.
So
when
people
look
at
that,
you'd
lead
them
to
conclude
that
wait.
N
You're
sitting
here
talking
about
all
these
things
and
aren't
some
of
these
revenues
tied
to
those
things
you're
talking
about
occurring
in
24.
Well,
they
are
projected
to
go
up.
It's
you
just
they
can't
make
up
for
the
loss
of
moving
the
two
Revenue
sources,
which
is
worth
I,
think
about
150
million
a
year
or
you're
losing
almost
300
million
over
the
biennium
from
gold
and
silver
and
npm,
and
with
that
Madam
chair
and
members,
that
those
are
the
comments
I
wanted
to
make.
N
Thank
you,
Mr
gundin
for
the
record,
Linda
Rosenthal.
So
just
one
comment,
especially
for
the
couple
members
of
The
Forum
who
are
new.
We
we
do
instruct
the
technical
advisory
committee
to
to
forecast
these
minor
Revenue
sources.
For
us.
We
also
have
the
ability
to
reclassify
things
as
a
major
Revenue
source.
So
if
you
see
anything
on
this
list,
you
know
just
some
of
the
you
know
the
big.
The
big
change
right
is
the
treasurer
line.
Item
I,
don't
know!
N
If
that's
something
that
interests
you
in
terms
of
seeing
a
more
formal
forecast
presented
and
having
us
approve
that
forecast
or
not,
but
just
wanted
to
make
you
aware
that,
there's
flexibility
in
what
we
classify
as
the
general
fund
revenues
that
we
forecast
and
what
we
instruct
the
TAC
to
do
for
us.
So
Mr
ginnon.
Just
on
that
note,
I,
don't
know
if
there's
interest,
but
if
there
were
interests
to
change
the
classification
of
any
of
the
revenue
sources.
Could
that
be
done
at
the
December
meeting?
Would
that
be
a
May
item?
N
Would
it
be
the
next
forecast
cycle?
What
would
the
timing
be
in
terms
of
changing
the
instruction
to
the
attack?
You
could
do
it
here
today
if
the
members
of
the
body
so
chose
to
do
and
direct
staff
to
do
that,
what
I
will
offer
for
your
consideration
is
somewhere
in
between
the
two
endpoints,
which
is
you
can
leave
it
a
minor
and
have
us
work
with
the
agency.
N
Take
it
to
the
tech,
discuss
it
there,
but
then,
when
we
bring
it,
we
can
make
sure
that
if
if
there
is
one
because
if
you
switch
it
from
a
minor
to
a
major,
then
we've
got
to
redo
the
tables
as
to
what's
major
minor.
So
it's
again
not
that
we
can't
do
that.
It's
just
we're
a
little
tighter
turnaround
between
this
meeting
and
the
December
5th
meeting
than
usual.
N
So
we
could
do
that
that
you
leave
it
the
way
it
is.
But
if
you
think
yeah
we
could
have
somebody
from
the
treasurer's
office
here
and
we
we
just
like
we're
doing.
We
could
have
the
treasurer's
office
go
through
and
present
more
information
on
the
forecast
for
this
or
in
the
agency,
for
any
other
ones,
and
or
for
fiscal
and
budget
to
provide
their
commentary,
sort
of
like
I'm
sort
of
doing
it
as
the
speaker
for
both
gfo
and
fiscal,
as
we
got
together
worked
on
this.
N
So
that
might
be
the
better
logistical
way
Madam
chair
is
you
don't
move
it
because
then
we'll
have
to
redo
the
tables
and
all
that.
But
you
tell
us
if
there
is
one
you
would
then
we'll
line
it
make
sure
we
have
that
lined
up
under
this
agenda
item
to
have
more
information
presented
by
probably
the
agency,
that's
responsible
for
it.
N
N
Okay.
Great.
Thank
you.
So
I
think.
That
concludes
agenda
item
seven.
So
agenda
item
eight
instructions
to
the
technical
advisory
committee
on
future
State
revenues
concerning
the
general
fund,
Revenue
forecasts,
so
again,
Mr
ginden,
I'm,
sure
I
think
you
may
have
just
covered
that
agenda
item
so
I
mean
seriously
I!
N
Think
that's
what
I
would
have
asked
you
did
you
want
to
make
any
changes,
so
you
already
got
there
and
so,
as
I've
said
that
we
will
basically,
after
this
meeting
there
are
a
few
agencies
that
we
want
to
contact
and
and
have
them
the
bigger
ones
think
about.
And
then
we
want
to
see
the
like
for
the
short-term
car
rental
we'll
get
to
see
the
first
quarter,
so
we
will
get
it's
not
only
getting
one
more
month.
It's
getting
the
first
piece
of
information
on
FY
23
for
the
quarterly
taxes.
N
So
then,
we'll
have
to
see
if
we
have
to
fine-tune
the
the
takeoff
point
and
whether
that's
just
affecting
FY
23
or
does
it
something
that
needs
a
path
adjustment
for
24
and
25.,
and
we
will
be
doing
that
and
so
that's
given
I
think
what
you
just
went
through
this
agenda
item
is
covered,
we'll
be
meeting
on
the
29th
to
bring
forward
that
and
but
and
what
we
do
is
we
have
generally
some
of
the
people
they
might
be
in
the
zoom
meeting
from
some
of
the
other
agencies
in
case
you
they
are
needed
so
we'll
just
probably
for
some
of
those
agencies
tell
them
they
get
the
zoom
invite
and
we
would
appreciate.
N
Maybe
they
don't
have
to
hang
around
the
whole
meeting,
but
we
can
let
them
know
as
we're
approaching
this
agenda
item
for
the
miners
and
we
would
appreciate
them
to
be
in
the
zoom
in
case
there
is
a
question
and
then
we
can
call
on
them.
Madam,
chair
or
actually
physically
be
here
as
their
schedule
would
permit,
and
so
we
will
work
for
that.
Great.
Thank
you.
The
next
agenda
item
is
scheduling.
N
A
future
economic
Forum
meetings,
we're
scheduled
for
December,
5th,
Madam,
chair
I,
think
probably
looking
at
this,
the
9
30
start
time
and
that
flight
probably
seems
to
work
well,
I'm
sure
we
may
have
to
just
talk
with
you
about
and
but
with
the
Forum
members
sitting
here.
As
you
can
see,
it
is
getting
close
to
three
and
that's
sort
of
what
we
thought
we
needed
to
do
to
be
able
to
have
the
members
who
flew
up
get
on
their
return
flight.
N
We
may
have
to
consider
the
next
flight
after
the
445
flight,
because
there's
the
three
returning
members
know
at
the
December
5th
meeting
you're
going
to
actually
make
decisions
and
then
fiscal
has
to
go
back
and
get
all
those
numbers
into
the
tables
and
then
there'll
also
be
a
report
that
that
goes
to
the
governor
and
the
legislature
and
so
we're
work.
Fiscals
working
on
that
and
a
draft
of
that
will
be
sent
out
to
the
members
in
advance
of
the
meeting
so
that
you
can
have
a
chance
to
review
it.
N
N
Thus
we're
going
to
need
that
extra
time
I
think
to
just
not
cut
us
tight
for
the
December
5th
meeting,
and
so
that's
all
I
had
to
say
on
this
agenda
item.
We
will
work
with
chair
Rosenthal
after
the
meeting
here
to
get
that,
but
I
think
the
9
30
start
didn't
work
too
bad
and
again
we
can
set
the
meeting
for
9
30
we
and
we
can
start
late.
N
We
just
can't
start
earlier,
but
look,
let's
hope
for
the
flight
is
on
time
on
December
5th,
as
it
was
and
that's
it
Madam,
chair,
I'll,
just
work
with
you
as
staff
great.
Thank
you.
So
the
last
agenda
item
then
again
is
public
comment.
So
we'll
start
here
in
Carson
City.
If
there's
anybody
who'd
like
to
make
a
public
comment:
okay,
not
seeing
any
how
about
down
in
Las,
Vegas.
N
Again,
nobody
rushing
to
the
mic,
so
then,
finally,
we
will
ask
the
BPS
staff
if
anyone
is
called
in
that
would
like
to
provide
public
comment
chair.
The
public
line
is
open
and
working
and
there
are
no
callers
terrific.
Thank
you
with
that.
I
think
that
brings
to
a
conclusion
this
this
meeting,
the
economic
forum
and
we
are
adjourned.