City of Portsmouth, New Hampshire Mayor's Blue Ribbon Energy Advisory Committee, 19 Jan 2023

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From YouTube: 1.18.2023 Portsmouth Energy Advisory Committee

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1.18.2023 Portsmouth Energy Advisory Committee

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Kevin charette here and I'm john tabor, I'm the chair present and we had.

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A yes to an rsvp for tom rooney, so I'm hoping he'll be joining us. So.

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All along we've had this blissful idea that we can launch in the fall.

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And that has changed on us, so I think we've got really two options before us. We could launch in.

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A sort of first wave part b in june- or we could wait until next year in april um and.

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The the reason this has changed is.

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um In my from what I can learn and kevin, you can correct me and samuel will explain better.

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But when the we're part of the community power coalition of new hampshire, when the actual pro.

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Forma was given a a road test by ascend analytics um they plotted out the income of the coalition.

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From selling electricity versus the changes in the wholesale rate, which change a lot seasonally.

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And there's a period where you're putting away reserves. Because the rate is higher than the.

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Wholesale cost and there's times that you have to take those reserves and put them to work because.

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The wholesale rates higher than the rate we're charging particularly january february.

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So that has a huge impact on. If we launch in the fall, we would essentially not be able to.

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um Assist the coalition in building reserves and, in fact, we'd be costing.

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As much as two million dollars in january and february, and just for reference.

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The whole enterprise looked at startup losses of around 2 million.

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So it you know and that that amplifies the risk it. It raises a difficult question for the.

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Cpcnh risk management committee were they to look at a fall application from us.

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And you know it just: it seems to shake out that it's not in the best interest of all or anyone.

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Do that uh so you know that gives us.

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We spent a lot of time, as I think, you're aware, through what we shared with you.

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Back and forth with samuel golding and it is possible if we step lively to get underway in june.

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um And it's also totally safe to wait until next spring.

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But you know we'll discuss the merits of that. I asked if samuel could be with us tonight just to.

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uh Maybe answer questions about this change. We we started really digging into this friday.

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And so it's been a rapid, a lot of rapid movement around this over the last five days um is samuel.

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uh He's still with us still there, I think, he's just not there. He is showing him there. He is.

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Show him up here, yeah. Did I get that explanation.

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Pretty much right halfway right yeah, that was a good recap.

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So he's he's here to maybe explain how he had to break this, to us gently and uh and where we.

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You know what what some of the causation is. um So, whatever you'd like to add to that, um and just as.

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A backdrop for samuel for those who don't recall or weren't involved at the time, but he's he's our.

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Lead technical consultant and he's been doing uh absolutely incredible work for the coalition for.

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A few years now and and uh is in a sprint right now to implement on april 1 for the waveone.

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Communities but he has been up to his eyeballs working with the various con consultants, cal pine.

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Ascend and samuel himself being quite technical, but he's been working, uh handing glove with.

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Ascend on all of the technical assessment of the business plan and the readiness for go live so.

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There's probably nothing: he can't answer that even ascend could answer samuel's a. He knows this stuff.

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Thanks for the kind words kevin.

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um So, john, I think you you passed here on the chart that I pulled together very quickly, showing.

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The retail wholesale spread I did yeah they folks were able to read that before the meeting.

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Okay, great and that just you know, full disclosure that is um taking the prices that every source.

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um Entered into for default supply periods every six months and if you go into the regulatory.

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Filings you can see that the the price that they were quoted for power consumed in each.

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Month and then they take that and they estimate what the load volumes are for, the small default.

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Customer class, residential, small commercial and they come up with an average rate and so.

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You get periods where the rate is above or below the cost, that's being paid out to the suppliers.

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And so this is a proxy for the same sort of cost drivers and um exposures that cpc and h.

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Will have going to market so it'll it'll have more flexibility there, but really there's not.

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You know if you want to hedge the winter months ahead of time. There will be quite the.

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Risk premium tacked on to that and so uh john did. You circulate the second graphite and mocked up.

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uh That was the the curves yeah yeah everybody's got that too.

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Okay, so that's kind of ran through my estimated. What portsmouth's load volumes would be.

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The for most of your customers seeking service and um just mocked up what um the cash flow would.

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Look like, and so if you, if you do, a fall launch and assuming typical kind of retail.

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Wholesale spread patterns hold as ever, source of experienced and and which we anticipate as well.

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um It does require a lot of credit support to get. If you launch in the fall, you don't have much.

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Reserves to speak of built up by the time those winter months come, and you would have to draw upon.

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Credit to maintain liquidity through those months, and you wind up kind of the worse than where you.

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Would have been if you, if you just waited until the spring, to launch another way to think about it.

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Is that a spring launch maximizes, the net revenues that you accrue in the first year of operations.

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Because you're entering the market at a time when you've managed to avoid having to pay for power.

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In the winter, but you are enrolling, customers who are being charged for charged a rate by.

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Eversource, that is much higher at that point in the spring than the power costs.

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That you would be responsible for, and so that creates a spread between the retail price. The.

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Customers pay and your underlying wholesale costs that flow a lot of money into reserves.

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Expression so I'll go ahead, I defer um so samuel. Did you look at what the impact to uh cpcnh's.

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um Cash flow would be if an interim intermediate uh start time, not the.

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Fall but later, and is that a net neutral or is that? Because enough revenue would generated by.

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The city would be offset by the losses or is there, you know a positive and would that.

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With cpcnh benefit from the city holding off until next spring, yes a full year and that way having.

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Coffers filled up that much more uh to be able to bring on somebody in a better financial position.

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So the previous modeling ones looked at what would happen in the coalition of.

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Nashua delayed until june to launch, and that would be 40 of the load.

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um And it was still perfectly viable had enough credit support and and would accrue enough right.

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Net revenues reserves collectively to make it through the winter, be fine. um Now nashua.

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Is back on track to launch in may potentially sometime in april as well, which will enhance.

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Obviously, bringing more net revenues for the whole enterprise and I don't foresee any.

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Challenges accommodating a few launch for portsmouth on that basis and of course we.

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If you do decide that you want to go forward with that, we will run some scenarios on it.

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And just kick the tires to make sure, but um my sense is that it would be the coalition would.

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Be able to accommodated so just it would benefit you and it would benefit coach.

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So just a quick follow-up: is there an a negative to the coalition if we waited a year.

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I suppose it wouldn't be as beneficial compared to launching in june.

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Because there's more load volume it is, it is still net positive. At that point,.

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Then a you know, more low volume means other members. The fixed cost of the operations are that.

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Much more spread out across more load, so other members see a bit of a financial benefit from that.

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Got it? Thank you. Hi samuel. I had a question about the analysis you provided. I just wanted.

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To start by saying, thanks for providing this, it's a really helpful illustration.

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um But I wanted to ask about where the variable cost values come from and and then I want to.

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Follow on with what does that suggest about the way we're going to actively manage the portfolio.

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um Those come from, as I mentioned at dad's, not just the regulatory filings.

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That disclose that resources, uh pricing that they received and the supply agreement.

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Rate prices that on which they are setting the rates.

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um So it is a proxy it's kind of a indicative.

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Illustration of that of that sort of seasonal, dynamic right.

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And and if I could explore that just a little bit further, these look like.

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Monthly strips exposing us to the wholesale rate entirely I mean it's just to me- looks.

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Like the comparison between a fixed rate that changes twice a year and those monthly spot.

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Market estimates of what the wholesale price would be is that am, I understand that correctly.

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Ford hedged cost of all requirements: electricity in this case; okay, that's.

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Not the spot market per se, so it's a it's a six month forward.

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Yes, okay! Does it because when I looked at this initially I had the perception.

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That, if this is just a let's say, a proxy for the monthly wholesale rate, this analysis, the.

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Counter factual that you put forward seems to presume that we'd be fully exposed to the.

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Wholesale rate, and so we're comparing you know, exposure to the wholesale rate on a monthly.

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Basis versus something that's, you know fixed every six months and that led me to question.

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Okay, this is interesting and helpful for this illustration and I I'm persuaded by.

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Your conclusions and and understand them and agree with them, but it raises a question for.

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Me of you know: how would this variable cost counterfactual here? How does that relate to.

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The active portfolio management strategy because I figured you you would load up some short some long.

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Maybe different risk profiles, you know ladders all that good stuff and that would have likely.

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Is somewhat different price profile than than what we're seeing here and is? Is it it absolutely would.

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And it's hard it's it's! It's difficult to estimate by how much different, though right.

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So, in from your uh understanding of the strategies that we would pursue.

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Under active portfolio management versus the proxy that we've got here for this.

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Illustration is it relatively close and still and directionally consistent, though.

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Will be very active management kind of daily alerts, weekly reports on all the positions.

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And how the markets moving and the exposures of the portfolio at least monthly meetings.

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Of the risk management committee um or more frequently as conditions require to.

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Deliberate on whether or not to authorize, you know, liquidated position or taking on another position.

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um Yes, it is difficult to predict in advance how that will all shake out and what.

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This, what the equivalent of this graph will look like for the coalition in two years time, looking.

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Back right, and, and so as an example of what happens in terms of timing, makes complete sense.

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um Is it also fair to assume that maybe, as the portfolio is launching there would.

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Be a larger exposure to kind of wholesale spot rates, or you know a version of them.

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Whereas over time, when you once you've built the portfolio, it would have, you know different.

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Kinds of characteristics in terms of seasonal volatility- yes, although I think we'll go, is to.

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Buy exposure right prior to the accrual of reserves, um so they'll be probably hedging.

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Around you know, 105 of load requirements for the initial year or so there's also a strategy.

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To kind of smooth the cash flow requirements and better align them with the retail revenue.

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Inflows by negotiating payment terms with suppliers that kind of amortize the cost.

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Sure over the term and maybe having a one-year term for certain um components of the portfolio.

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So again, all of that is kind of being structured and put in place in little walls. Great and last.

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Question last question: um so this analysis you've shared with us. It illustrates how important the.

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Timing of the launch is, and and that's in the abstract helpful, but I understand that.

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When you launch, as cpcnh, is standing up and developing its portfolio, it's maybe even more.

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Important to time it in a in a wise way, so that we're not in you know, dipping into you know, debt.

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Service and things of that nature early on in the portfolio development process. Yes,.

F

Thank you appreciate it good questions, but, and you know my take from what I'm hearing um samuel.

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I mean there's windage in this graph that you put together for us. You could be a quick leader.

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Reflect portsmouth but to ben's final point there. The the kind of the conclusion is spring launches.

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Are the best where you need to be, and at least for the foreseeable future, the coalition would.

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Not advocate any community launch in the fall and- and I don't know if I'm getting ahead of myself.

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Here, but in the future, perhaps as we have onesie and 2z communities come on board during the course.

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Of the year- and you know, our reserve levels are where they need to be. Perhaps the coalition could.

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Support a community coming on board in the fall, but at least for the first year or two financially.

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It doesn't make sense for the community or the coalition to do so. Is that kind of an accurate.

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Summary, yes and it's you know, I view it on two levels: it's um can the coalition support it from.

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um You know credit and liquidity perspective, and that depends on the size of the community and the.

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Numbers of communities that want to launch um and then from the individual communities perspective.

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um It probably makes financial sense to wait until the spring and and that'll be the case for.

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You know, as long as these dynamics continue to find the economics of it.

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So samuel, I'm not quite clear why um an individual community would be impacted.

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Versus cpc and h I mean cpcnh is the one that's managing the portfolio they're holding all the.

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Revenues they're the individual communities aren't exposed to anything. It's just the rate payers.

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um You know so I'm not quite clear when you say you know why there'd be a benefit to the whether.

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It be an impact, I mean it's really cpcnh, that's going to receive the impact uh and they have.

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To decide whether they want to take that that additional cost on or if it's, if it's mid-year.

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Or out of out of that spring cycle, sure well so the way it flows back to the community is that.

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um Revenue is in excess of costs going to joint reserves, however, reserve contributions were.

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Outflows of reserves to cover shortfalls on to have particular members of tracks.

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So um you know say say a member launches in april and then decides under the cost, sharing agreement.

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In the member services contract you know anytime in the first year they can choose to say, hey.

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This wasn't for us um we'd, like to um exit the coalition and um their ability to combine that.

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A timing of their exit is, you know, three years from the day that the cpc makes launch service.

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And it could actually be quite um could be a year sooner or two years sooner or even if cpch.

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Hasn't entered into hedges on behalf of that cpa, where the pool going out for the full three years.

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And when that termination date rolls around and the individual cpa exits coalition.

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They are, they have rights to, they would just be given their allocated reserves back.

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um So the the net reserves are held on behalf of the members by cpcmh and that's the only.

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Way, it would kind of flow back and impact an individual member. For all other intents,.

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And purposes it is a pooled portfolio. It's managed from that perspective, financially.

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That's why the reserves are cooled um and rates are set that way as well.

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If we, let's say that we got our aggregation plan uh done as we've talked about looking at the possibility.

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Of june, would we have a lot more clarity around rates um in may april? May, yes, you will know what.

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The rates are by mid february early mid-february, as the timeline holds okay, because the rates.

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Are the same for all cpas served by cpcmh within a given utilities default period right.

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And I was hearing you say that if we did june um it models out as manageable by cpcnh, it.

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It also um would build some reserves over the summer months, and um you know it would be.

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Something that we could go in knowing the rates, um and uh it would also, by being part.

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Of the coalition in 2023 versus 24, we help the economies of scale with the overhead and.

C

Also samuel, can you just talk to you if we went live in june, the rates reset august 1st.

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Right- and we will know at the latest by july 1st what the rate is going to be for august.

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So could you just speak for our commission here committee, the the probability that we will the.

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Coalition will still have a a rate, a basic service rate that is lower than ever source, because if we.

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Went live in june, we're only up and running june and july, and then the rates reset and it wouldn't.

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Be a good thing if all of a sudden, the lower rate that ever source within two months flipped. So you.

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Just talk about the probability of that I know you can't promise anything, but the probability well.

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I would I would think that there would be a very high probability if rates continuing to.

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Be competitive um throughout the second period and and thereafter actually over.

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The course of the modeling, given the assuming that reserves are collected.

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In you know, assuming that rates are set in a manner that continues to prioritize.

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The accrual financial reserves for the first few years, in accordance with the.

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Financial reserves policy that the board adopted with the target levels um there are.

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There are no real scenarios in which.

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In which cpc and h would have to set rates at a level that wouldn't be competitive with the.

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Utilities, um it's it's possible, but and if you're, if you're kind of focused on.

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Just the second period, I I can't foresee of a situation in which.

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Cpcmh wouldn't eat the utilities rates. um The amount of funds that are accrued in reserves is.

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Very high, because of this, the current spread between wholesale costs and utility rates is.

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The highest that it's been over the last three or four years that were analyzed by quite a lot so.

C

Yeah good because I mean that just would be a public relations nightmare.

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To be live for two months and then yeah slips back, you know it would be.

D

um That's not one of the many things that I worry about: okay, okay, um other questions for samuel.

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um I'll just ask one more: um you know a big part of this is not just.

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The competitive price that we would get and the renewable options that more competitive prices, but.

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Getting the public to understand it appreciate it feel comfortable about it.

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um How much uh public relations and community engagement is going to be happening over the.

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Next, three or four months versus you know late late in the year or early next year,.

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Certainly, a wave of public engagement planned right now.

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Coalition is, you know, a fair bit of news coverage at present and the coalition is.

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About to engage a public relations firm to support media efforts.

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There are a dozen public engagement campaigns gearing up across all of.

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The wave one member communities um and those are cpcnh is supporting.

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um The the local energy committees to conduct pains for the most part, like writing materials.

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um Trains on, on kind of being an interview by the media talking points and faqs to explain things.

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Also reflected on the websites that are.

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In design and put on the way over the next few weeks for each individual member.

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So it's it's difficult, I'm so focused on the next few weeks and months and I.

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I know I'm kind of taking you out of your uh your your speed lane on right, but six.

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Months from now, what would the coverage be like relative to when we launched.

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I think it'll be robust coverage either way. Yeah yeah, I mean there's, there's a package.

C

Of communications that are tied to communities, launching that's one thing and then the steady.

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State type communications is, I don't think, that's been uh really articulated. Yeah yeah.

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And I you know, the other thing I don't think we can underestimate is is uh as wave one communities.

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Roll this out and thousands of customers get letters and if that's a good experience and.

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There's excitement around that. You know that gets a lot of conversation happening statewide.

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There's buzz around launch: what's that, there's buzz around launching.

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Do we have other questions.

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I I want to uh thank you samuel for, for.

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Sharing your expertise, um I think we've got to deliberate now on on which way to go here.

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Pros and cons, but what I hear is uh you think the coalition could support either option.

D

Yes, yes, I do, um and let me know if I can produce anything else, to support your decision.

D

um Are you making a choice tonight well, we'll see if we can get there? Okay,.

D

Posted and um we'll factor it into the modeling and the planning, and whichever way you go right.

A

Let's put it this way, I don't think we. If we want to do june, we do need to decide quickly. Yes, yes,.

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Thanks a lot thanks samuel, thank you.

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So we took a look more in depth at.

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I'll go live in june scenario and what it would mean. So, let's assume that.

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We've, let's assume that we can comfortably plan around the spring. That's not that's not hard to do.

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But kevin who did our last timeline and has been through rollouts with.

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Eversource for aggregations all over the place put this together for us.

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My take is it's feasible, um it's aggressive, but it's feasible.

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um And really, the key part is between is february, because.

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Put it this way if we get our aggregation plan done through the two public hearings.

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And then we get it to the city council and to the puc. We have the option of two. We don't have.

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To do gene, but we have the option. On the other hand, if we follow the old-time line that we had.

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Slide the eap completion into march, um then we don't have the option to.

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uh Allison well, my my big concern really is community engagement and the fact is that I.

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Really don't know how many people understand this and if they're going to feel you know the survey.

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Mentions the two nine public hearing, how many surveys are we going to get back in that amount.

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Of time and that's a very short period of time to me for surveys to come back and then we've got a.

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Public hearing on the same day, one week apart and is that really going to reach different people are.

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They going to be available on that at that time um just one week apart and it's just seems I.

G

That's that's the way I feel about it. I mean I just don't know if we're going to.

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Get enough people on board. Can I just frame a little bit before we kind of get into this.

C

Just because this isn't a huge deviation from where we were to tell you the truth,.

C

um The launch the eventual launches, but we in the plan that you submitted to the council back in the.

C

Fall we said we are going to get our eap approved in march and we're going to submit it in april to.

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To the commission right so now we're um and then we re, we revamped that schedule over the holidays.

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And um we, the previous schedule, excuse me, the previous schedule said was we're going to finalize.

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The eap and submit it to the puc by the end of the first quarter, the most recent schedules that we.

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Were going to submit it to the puc in april right, because one of the reasons all along was while we.

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Were focusing on the fall was that we might have the potential to do a rolling implementation at.

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The coalition we wanted to have our act together should that opportunity in the markets give us.

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That opportunity right or there would have been no reason why we were going so fast to submit.

C

This quarter, if we were going to be launching not till till the um to the fall right and as samuel.

C

Said the ascend is saying the you know the this is and they conclude it in their technical analysis.

C

Is from their perspective a very strong time for a cpa to to launch um the the one of the things.

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We were trying to to benefit from was having a wave one launch before we went live. So all the.

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Enrollment process, the initial kind of interface with the utilities, the billing, the metering, the.

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Call center setup, all of that was working, and if we were to pull back to june, we still have.

C

That that still happens wave one launches they're going to start enrollments are going to start next.

C

Month for for the wave one or in march- and we still kind of- can benefit from making sure this.

C

Thing is working before we were to go to go, live all right from an education standpoint from what.

C

I've seen in these other communities is, and as far as we weren't going to implement them fall, we had.

C

Done a whole lot more than some of these other communities. We had the postcard that went out.

C

In the water bills we had the 3s event, you've had op-eds, there's been newspaper articles. You have a.

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Survey that's about to go out in a week. These are all things that are are beyond what other.

C

Communities have done and once if we set still and I'm just I'm kind of switzerland on this, but I'm.

C

Just before we get too much heartburn over that this is a huge change. It isn't really um the the.

C

The heavyweight communication is from the point in time where you you, you start working toward.

C

The the implementation date- and you have the hearings- you, you um uh there's the process that.

C

Cpnh supports with all sorts of communications, and I think, most of us kind of appreciate the.

C

Idea of just-in-time training or just in time, education, if we were to do all of this now,.

C

With our hearings, because we're going to be doing the hearings anyway and then not launch till next.

C

Next spring, you kind of lose the value of that all that communication. It's almost like you'd, have to.

C

To do it again and you're not implementing until june, and it's only january and so there's there's.

C

A certainly a big window here to do a whole lot of communication. That would be that would be planned.

C

um So I think that the the two risks one we we wanted to monitor wave one. You still have the.

C

Opportunity to do that and um and there's still we've done a lot of communication and there's.

C

There's a lot that'll happen between now and go live, and I think the thing we know we kind of lose.

C

Sight of is, we have the opportunity to deliver a lower rate to our customers 10 months earlier.

C

So if we don't do this, we're sitting on a lower rate for our residents for the next.

C

10 months, which to me gives me you know, gives me some pause, and I totally agree with you and.

G

I understand that this. It really isn't that much different. It is timeline, but the thing.

G

That still gets to me is just the fact that I don't know that we've reached enough people.

G

That's really it and I feel, like you, know, having two public hearings one week apart.

G

Same day or same evening, whatever um I don't know, some people get the perception that.

G

The city tries to pull things on them if they don't really understand it. Yep you know, and so.

G

That's the only thing I don't want to run into is that we get this negative press. That says we.

G

Didn't know about it, why are you doing this yeah and and if you, if you ask people today on january,.

C

Or whatever today's 18th, I can understand that. But if you ask people a month from now two months.

C

From now, I think the education, and, if you talk to some of these other communities for their hearings,.

C

People didn't even show up wave, one communities are going live and they said folks didn't you.

C

Know they're they're rooms where they could count on a couple hands how many people showed up at.

C

The public hearing, so we had 100 people at the 3s event back in june and to try to keep this.

C

Alive and and not have the issue get stale. We do all this this, you know. Do our hearings finalize.

C

Our plan get all dressed up for the dance and say: okay, we're going to wait a year is, I think, in my.

C

Mind it's a little bit of a of a difficult sell to the public when they start seeing in the news that.

C

Durham, dover, exeter rye are all going live april 1 and the rates are lower. It's a tough explanation.

C

Why are we waiting 10 months and I'm I'm a risk at first guy I spend half my career in auditing. I'm.

C

Not a risk taker, but I just I I think, there's from my perspective, there's um there's an option here.

C

That isn't running with scissors. Really I think it's I mean I I want to do it now. You know I I.

G

But I'm just playing devil's advocating that yeah. You know I've. I've lived here for a long time and.

G

I've seen how some things have gone yeah. I just wanted to remind folks we're not on that different.

C

Of a schedule in terms of our preparation, yeah, it's the launch, that's the is the big change.

A

I understand what you're saying allison it's what they want to pull here, um but let's remember the.

A

How big is the risk? Really, if somebody who wasn't engaged gets a letter saying.

A

We're gonna portsmouth community power is going to offer you this rate. It's.

A

Lower than the default rate, or you can opt out- that's really the proposition. Okay and.

A

um You know everybody gets that letter, which is the ultimate community communications part of it.

E

So just to play devil's advocate. Yes, you know kevin, you say, there's a risk of delaying it. It.

E

Gets stale, why not just hold off on the whole push push push and time it so that.

E

It could meet that one year and then that and then you can address you know allison's.

E

Concern relative to rolling this out in a in a manner that could be perceived as city, forcing.

E

Something down people's throats, whether it is or not, um it's still a perception.

E

Thing, and it still haven't, could have material impacts to the success of a program like this.

A

A

We could do it over a year.

A

But number one by that time.

A

More neighbor communities are getting the benefits. It's five percent on 20 cents, that's 19 cents. It's.

E

Once it's one cent like you know, and the the risk in my mind is you know you, you create an episode.

E

Right instead of a programming- um and you know, allison has seen it happen, I've seen it happen.

E

You know we want success here. We want, we want a program, that's implementable,.

E

You know it does seem like aggressive um hearing schedule. That's coming up in the next few weeks.

E

um It I would, I would advise you caution and and pace yourself. Well, what's the worst that happens.

A

Right, we get a lot of pushback and we say: okay, this needs more time, we'll go next spring, so you.

A

End up in the same place, originally the hearings were going to be november and december and then.

C

We switched them to january and february. That was this. Then we moved it to february and march.

G

So now it's february and february yeah and and the reason to do that.

C

Is the fact that if we get into this thing here is the eap when it gets filed with the puc starts.

C

A 60-day clock and then when they approve it it starts at 45 day clock. So that's where we kind.

C

Of backed up to those kind of administrative things that need to take place needed to get.

C

Jammed up a bit to allow that clock to play out that allows the implementation in in june.

C

And cpcnh wasn't advising to go out any further than june from a financial perspective. So that's.

C

Where you're kind of backed into how to how to do those clifton mentioned in lebanon, they did.

C

A public hearing and then turned around two weeks later and had the second public hearing.

C

As part of one of their city council meetings because they wanted to get the eap so um but.

H

That's actually that's. Actually something to think about is maybe putting the second.

H

Public hearing on a night of a council meeting, so people are paying attention to the council.

H

Will pick it up as well, rather than holding them both on a thursday night. But having said that,.

H

um I doubt we'll get a lot of engagement, no matter when we hold our public hearings, yeah.

H

Because it's not really a controversial issue that people are going to turn out for.

H

Whereas we're going to get a lot of engagement, no matter when we launch leading right up to it once.

H

It becomes apparent we're launching, so I don't think the timing of the launch predicts how much.

H

Engagement and how many complaints we get either. I think this the same people who are going to be.

H

Frustrated are going to be frustrated before june as we'll be frustrated next spring. Before april,.

H

um So we don't solve that problem by pushing the timeline out. um I think that my real question and.

H

I think one thing that would drive the timeline for us is if they set rates and we find rates in.

H

February and the rates are only you know a little bit off wherever source is, it could be about five.

C

Percent there are already five to seven and a half percent. That's one cent right, whereas I'm.

H

Paying 13 cents right now for my rate, because I'm using a alternative supplier. So if we're going to.

C

Argue about the amount of delta, then we might not. We may never implement a cpa, because it's.

H

Never going to be five seconds, so what I'm? What I'm saying is from a public relations perspective.

H

It's not a huge savings. People won't see it as a huge saving. So so that's that's! That's where.

H

We come down with the public relations side of things right and we've talked about not stressing.

E

Doing this because of cost savings, we've talked about this for the the doing it for the right.

E

Reasons, and so I would again caution um to not focus on the you're getting less. You know it's.

E

Comparable to your to your default, but you're getting green but financially I'll, just to add.

C

On to that, the ability for the city to build up reserves for the next 10 months in a period.

C

Where ascend is saying, they've never seen a market that this is that's this advantageous.

C

For a cpa to launch and they've done all the ones in california, so we have 10 months where.

C

Portsmouth has the ability, perhaps to build up more reserves than might be in year two and year.

C

Three in terms of what's the the headroom and the in the rate, so that that's why ascend was all.

C

You know very, very positive about the wave one communities going live is the ability, because part.

C

Of the coalition is to get stable, financially and then to be able to start to do other things around.

C

Projects etc, but the first thing they need to do is build up joint reserves to a certain level and.

C

They have to hit targets and then there's going to be. Reserves are going to be available for projects.

C

In the community, so the thing that you, you kind of forego peter if you don't go, live this year.

C

Is whatever reserves the city was able to put into its coffers between june and next april?.

C

Right, that's part of it. So just just explain that I mean it's not this. I know it's it's allocated to.

E

The city, but it's not the city's conference, it's cpcnh's reserve, cpa's coffers, the portsmouth cpa.

C

Right, it's not the city of portsmouth right it just say: the people who are listening are queuing.

E

In later, I think it's important to differentiate, because we talk a lot about city city and it's not.

E

The city, it's cpcnh and it's it's an allocation of resources within that that could be allocated back.

E

To projects in portsmouth, yeah right and initially it's into joint reserves. The city has, the cpa, has.

C

An obligation to support joint reserves to cover so many days of operating costs for the cpa, so.

C

It's it's. The portsmouth cpa I understand correct um would benefit from its its financial stability.

C

Strengthens over the reserves that would be put into it over the next 10 months and would be.

C

Available should in subsequent periods, those reserves needs to be tapped into to keep the.

C

Rate lower than the utility default service, so um yeah yeah kevin. What effect would it.

G

Have if the majority of people received the postcard and decide they're going to opt out.

G

That they don't want to participate, yeah yeah. If there was a lot, I mean that changes the the load.

C

Profile for the city, but these aggregations all around the country. The ascent has the numbers in.

C

There in year, one year too, I think it's somewhere between three and five percent opt out of of the.

C

Program and then some continue to opt out over the first few months they may launch with it. They may.

C

Go a couple months before they even realize that they're part of the coalition and then.

C

Say I'm not, but it's it's in the single digit is the the history in in the states that have have.

C

Cpa programs- ben- please I was just going to say one of the other advantages of launching it right.

H

Now the rates are pretty high and people the rate your bill is going to be really low. In may.

H

June, my lowest bill is always um june, um so people aren't really going to notice much of a difference.

H

I don't think immediately if we launch so unless there's a major problem with customer service, it's.

H

Not going to be obvious obvious to people right that, there's really a difference and we will.

A

Have seen wave one launch april 1st to know if the customer service is solid if the rollout is solid.

A

I mean we are a fast follower in this schedule. Then you're gonna, yeah thanks kevin. Are you.

F

Have you heard much from the cpa, cnh folks around the regulatory.

F

Calendar if we submit something to the puc in the past recent history, there's been a bit of.

F

A delay we'll call it getting things back out of the people filing our eap yeah. They can take up to.

C

60 days and they have been taking up to 60 days, um they had a lot of eaps that were submitted around.

C

The same time, the wave one communities, because they all had to do some of the modifications.

C

And they kind of submitted them in mass over a few weeks, so they took somewhere between 58 59 60 days.

C

There's an there's a potential: they they do it quicker, but they have to do it per regulation.

C

Within 60 days, so there is a 60-day limit in statute or in regulation somewhere, yes yeah. They.

C

Have they they have up to 60 days and they have been taking it right. So that's where the clock and.

C

Then once once they approve it, then in the note here that we passed around the risk committee.

C

Would approve starting a procurement for um or portsmouth and you have the ability right up to.

C

That point in time to back out right, um portsmouth could back out of the cpa at that point, even.

C

Waiting the 60 days pardon at what point once the the we file, the eap the the puc, has 60 days right.

C

um Like the day later, the risk committee of the coalition meets to um to authorize procurement of.

C

Power for that new cpa in this case portsmouth at that meeting portsmouth has the ability to.

C

Say tap out we're not in you know, for whatever reason, we're we're going to back out and then.

C

They wouldn't go forward with procurement, so that would be out. um You know. The dates are.

C

On there, whenever that is um april uh 12., so under this scenario, this schedule here.

C

Portsmouth would have up to april 12th to have seen how the planning went for wave one.

C

Did you know, did everything implement okay and could tap out on the on the 13th? I just have to.

A

Be a time cop, I guess every year, yeah yeah I mean my feeling is that I don't think it's going to.

G

Hurt anything to go forward as long as we can opt out by that date, because if we get very negative.

G

Feedback on the survey or the public hearings, then I think that that would maybe change our mind, but.

A

Yeah is there, is there any way to move that february? 9Th hearing to the sixth, the city.

H

Council night, do we think that's in the postcard? I think it mentioned it's in the postcard. I know.

B

Hard says: please submit the survey by february 8th. I could change the reply that says come to.

B

The hearing anytime or we could move the second to the sixth and have the sixth and the ninth twice.

H

In one week that that's the only concern I had twice in one week, so if somebody's out of town.

H

That is more difficult and you wouldn't have your survey data. That's right.

H

Like a saturday, when more people can come yeah, we couldn't play with the 11th.

A

But I would point out that we have a council work session right or just february 13th, which.

A

Would be a whole hour devoted to community the hard stop on this is to submit the eap.

C

By february, 10th have a good evening. Everybody. Thank you. Thank you for your notes of caution.

E

So we got to submit to eap before the council approves we're able to do that. We're able to.

A

Do that have them run parallel, um then, that if you back up the calendar, we want to be able to.

C

Be launching for the month of june within the calendar month of june. And if you back.

C

Up the calendar um so we're discussing with the coalition not submitting it until february 20.

C

After the february 21st approval and that that pushes it out too far and.

C

um And there's the ability that the regulation allows the eap to be submitted.

C

After the hearings, but before council approves switzerland, pardon you're, truly switzerland.

C

I am because I don't see if we had to to stay up 24 hours a day to make this happen.

C

Than to you know, do just incredible things, but it is jamming up the schedule a little bit, but it's.

C

Kind of what we're going to do anyway- and I'm just I'm concerned about for going a year of ability.

C

To build up reserves and to have a rate, even if it's only five percent but lower than than utility.

C

Default service because that's that's our option, so let me just get a sense of where everybody's at.

A

Yeah, I'm ready to go. Okay, I'm not yet persuaded. We should go out in june.

F

Okay, I think I'm okay with it kevin I'm. Okay,.

A

I look at it as if we do a fall launch. I mean we can't do a fall launcher, but.

A

We're pretty close to the original schedule.

A

It does acquire a little acceleration here and there we get to see the first wave towns, roll.

A

Out april 1st, we learn from that. We see if there's problems, uh and you know if we set our near-term.

A

Goal as let's get the eap done by the 10th for the puc, then we have options and if we settle back.

A

And don't push for that, we have no options but the full. So one question how many towns did you do? I.

C

I wasn't involved at this. I love a hamster, none in mass in massachusetts. You did my involvement.

C

Was a whole different? I was on the utility side, I know, but how many towns did you do the handful.

C

A lot, but I I didn't I didn't- I didn't set schedules. How does this compare to them? We.

C

Support it whatever schedule the town was on, so I I can't really opine on what how fast towns moved.

C

Have you seen a town move this fast? You know, I don't that's why I tried to set at the beginning.

C

Here I don't see us moving a whole lot faster than we were. We were going to have our hearings.

C

And file our eap within a two-month period. Now, let's like go within a six month, six.

C

Week period and the only the thing that's changing is then we're going to move forward to implement.

C

Faster but our preparation window here isn't really changing all that much.

C

And to the counselor's point I mean we have the ability, I guess, to get the eap out of our hands.

C

And to the puc- and it still gives us time as a committee not to feel like we're. Rushing our.

C

Decision here I'm comfortable with the ap I'm really impressed at how far it's come along.

A

Yeah and then that's the near-term goal and you're always going to have- and this is one.

C

Thing I do know from my involvement is you're always going to have residents in a community that.

C

Say they were not aware or I don't like having been opted out et cetera, so we had all the time.

C

In the world it will never be pristine. I get that um the two months lag from april to june.

F

That's key shoulder month. You know those are key reserve building times. You still think we're we're.

F

Building sufficient reserves, starting in june well they're we're not we're not building as much by.

C

Implementing in june yeah, I feel like we're just squeaking by if we do but you're you're building.

C

Reserves the model says from june all the way out through october through october, and um that's a.

C

Lot of months- and you, if we wait, we wouldn't have built those reserves whatever they are they're, not.

C

As great as if we implemented april 1st, but I would have never advised we implement april 1st.

C

And be part of the first wave because there's a lot of moving parts here on the procurement.

C

And the retail side, particularly the retail side that are going to get road tested by the wave one.

C

Communities and I'm I'm, I would not be comfortable to be in that group. I appreciate your solicitude. I.

F

All long have been concerned about the community engagement, public education piece.

F

I have a vague feeling, totally subjective, that we're compressing that I can tell you yes, as long.

F

As we still feel like, we can do it justice I can get there. I've seen that's what we got to do. The.

C

Communication material that the cp cnh is using has put together for the wave on communities. It's.

C

It's good, it's professional, a lot of collateral, material and they're. uh There's a lot more that we.

C

Will follow here from a communication standpoint and we need you to be that voice. That says: do.

A

More engagement do more engagement, okay, and um it is going to go quickly, but sometimes.

A

Top of mind awareness happens more when there's a succession of quaker. I understand that.

C

And just a survey going up, this is going to be the second communication piece. That's gone.

C

To all residents yeah, so today at my house it did the postcard really now ready yeah.

F

It looks great you're in the first way it must be. Did you take the survey? Are we oh yeah, the.

B

Counselor chair, mr chairman, are we ending the meeting? uh Yes we're adjourning? Thank you.

C